All Is Not Lost

At least not yet.  A remarkable turnaround.  Good news on both home fronts.

Atsu in for Saint-Maximin; what looked like a bad omen
worked out fine as Atsu would find Joelinton for the game winner

Absolutely no reason to think that Newcastle would give Spurs a hard time.  Which of course, they proceeded to do.  Credit Steve Bruce for making some tweaks.  That was a 5-4-1 the Magpies trotted out there; can you say parking the bus?  But that's what Rafa would have done.  The stats are a train wreck.  Possession was 20/80. Shots were 8/17.  Touches were 391/942.  But so many of those touches were Spurs working the ball around the outside of the box.  Shots on target were actually 3/2.  The big difference was Newcastle converted their clear chance while Dubravka came up big on one against Son, Moura put his chance over the bar and Kane scuffed his.

The game's only goal came from Ritchie to Atsu (who was in the game only after Saint-Maximim's hamstring went bad) to Joelinton (which as you can hear from the video is pronounced Joe Elinton); it's an easy pick for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Felt a little bad for Michael B as we watched the game together down the shore.   It being early season, he was more philosophical about it than upset.

The good news is that the team may have found it's competitive footing.  The bad news is that there is still no reason to think this will not be a year-long fight against relegation.  There are just too many teams like the Magpies out there to expect we can ever get confidently clear of the bottom.


How To Curl in Soccer

One of these three does not play
for Arsenal

Dennis points out that the Liverpool Arsenal match went downhill pretty much after Lee Dixon commented, "Guendouzi, David Luiz, Sideshow Bob, I get confused between the three of them."  Might have been the highlight of this much anticipated contest.  Actually, not true.  The opening 30+ minutes was an interesting contrast between the constant offensive pressure of Liverpool and the quick and nearly effective counterattacking of Arsenal.  But once Liverpool broke through with Matip's sweet header late in the first half, the spell was broken and the match seemed one-sided from that point on.

Meanwhile, at Old Trafford, Man United PK follies continued.  Recall last week that after being fouled Paul Pogba grabbed the ball to make sure that he, not Marcus Rashford (the regular PK taker), would take the kick.  Of course, he missed. This week, down 0-1 to Crystal Palace, the Red Devils were awarded another PK.  Martial quickly grabbed the ball and gave it to Rashford, who promptly slammed the attempt off the inside of the left post.  United did level things in the 89th minute only to see van Aanholt grab a winner in stoppage time.  Is it me or did that look a little soft from de Gea (video here)?

Didn't get to see much else.  Aston Villa got a nice 2-0 win over Everton.  Chelsea were twice down a goal to Norwich twice coughed up the lead to Norwich but did manage a 3-2 win.  Wolves and Burnley played to a 1-1 draw, with Wolves getting the equalizer in the 97th minute on a PK.  That'll leave a mark.

I Don't Carabao It Cup

The top four divisions do this competition of questionable necessity called the League Cup.  The current sponsor is Carabao.  In Football Manager my board would tell me annually that they expected results in the league, the FA Cup and the Champions League but told me they didn't give a sh care about the League Cup.  Look at the line ups that get trotted out for these matches and you'll see that in real life this competition is not a priority.

So we are not heartbroken that Newcastle went down to Leicester on kicks-from-the-spot after playing to a 1-1 draw.  In fact, the result suggests maybe that the performance against Spurs was not a complete fluke.


Rate This Dive

Check out the theatrics of Newcastle's Jetro Willems here.  He probably did get nudged in the back but no where near as hard as his reaction implies.  He's lucky his performance didn't cost Newcastle that goal.  In truth, he probably can't get booked for simulation because there was contact but that's risky behavior.  Hey Ted Lasso, what did you think of the play?

Ask Jeff H

Lifted directly from last week's Comments section is the wisdom of Jeff H:

The U seem to have lost the plot a bit. For all kinds of reasons a win v DCU is mandatory. Caught a break w Rooney being suspended so no excuses. Much is being said about the poor play of Creavalle (who looked good against Houston to me), Gaddis and Collin (who was a hero a few wks back). It will be interesting to see if we get the old “not going to tinker w the lineup” Curtin or the more daring guy we got earlier this season. Maybe it’s McKenzie for Collin? I say shake it up a bit Jim. If we drop points I predict the boos will rain down, despite the joy of 2 wks ago....it’s Philly.

Wish I could have been there when Jeff communicated these ideas to Union manager Jim Curtin.  Look at Saturday's line up card and tell me the two didn't talk.  McKenzie starts in place of Collin.  A  4-2-3-1 formation puts Ilsinho-Monteiro-Aaronson behind shuh-BILL-koh.  DC never knew what hit them.  Goals at 5, 16 and 36.  The 3-1 final might be kind to DC, who rather than challenging for the conference title may in fact be challenged to make the playoffs based on their recent form.

Atlanta didn't exactly destroy Orlando but got a 1-0 win to hold onto first for the moment.  NYCFC spotted the Red Bulls an early goal but came back for a 2-1 win; hard to think we were going to hold off NYCFC for second place at this point so maybe this was for the best.


Meet the New Boss (musical accompaniment courtesy The Who)

The new boss of Chester greets the media

Same as the old boss. Literally.  With Chester's 2018-19 success, I decided to retire from Football Manager 2010 and have upgraded to FM 2019.  The game's structure is such that one cannot import games from previous versions so I will be starting from scratch.  I figured why not try it all over again.  So in virtual time it is June 25, 2018 and I am the new manager of Chester.  Though the player rating approach is mostly unchanged, many aspects, especially in the areas of tactics and training are even more detailed than before.  I have a transfer budget of $0, salary space of about $70k, and a Chief Scout who is rated 2 out of 20 at judging potential ability.  Yeah, we have work to do.


You Don't Gotta Get It In To Get Three Points

So Carli Lloyd shows up at the Eagles practice and starts hitting 40 yard field goals easily.  Then she tries a 55 yarder.  The result is here.


Opportunities

Some golden, some more hypothetical.  In the former category, Newcastle take on Watford at St. James' Park at 10 am Saturday (NBC Gold), a chance to grab three points against a side that has struggled so far.  [Just before publishing, I read an injury update and don't feel so confident anymore - Matt Ritchie is out for two months due to an ankle injury picked up against Leicester, Saint-Maximim is out for 3-5 weeks, Carroll is still two weeks away and Willems is out too.] In the latter, the Union can retake first place with a win at home but must do it against a hot Atlanta team (Saturday at 7:30 on PHL 17).

After spreading fixtures out over three and four days the first three weeks, this Saturday we find six matches crammed into the Saturday 10 am slot.  We'll be taking in Newcastle v Watford on NBC Gold and dvring Chelsea v Sheffield United.  Would like to be able to see Crystal Palace host Aston Villa but the timing could be tough.  You can get up early to watch (7:30 - NBCSN) as Man United travel to the south coast to face Southampton.  The NBC feature match is Burnley - Liverpool.

Sunday offers some better match-ups.  At 9 we have Everton hosting Wolves; that could be fun to watch and good warm up for the North London derby at 11:30.  Both Arsenal and Tottenham did not have the best of weeks so this could be an early defining moment for both.

On the MLS front, we'll be at Talen Energy Stadium for that Union match against Atlanta.  Curtin will have to make at least one adjustment, as Bedoya is suspended for the match due to yellow card accumulation.  NYCFC, even on the road, is favored to take all three points from Vancouver.  This could be the Sunday we wake up to see the Union in third place.   Red Bulls will likely get their three points too as they host Colorado.  DC United could well drop another one in Montreal; they'll be missing Rooney again as he got another match tacked on to his suspension for violent conduct.

Just another crowded late summer weekend.

Makes Me Wanna Pukki

Warning - grumpy and snarky post ahead.  This says it all.  The highlight of the weekend was probably that Aston Villa played well despite losing.


I Didn't Think Magpies Were Flightless Birds

Teemu Pukki - a Finnisher
Photo: Press Association

Well, this tiding certainly hasn't left the ground yet.  This was perhaps the worst performance by the Magpies since I started following the club.  No soul, no heart, no clue.  Hard to sort out how much is down to the manager and how much the players are the problem.  For Bruce's part, why would you replace Manquillo, who had a perfectly fine debut against Arsenal, and give newcomer Emil Krafth the start at right wingback?  Not to unfairly single out the new guy but he missed a scoring chance, saw the second goal go between his legs and was beaten by Pukki as he completed his hat trick.  Ki for Longstaff was the other change, though that may have been driven by injury concerns.

What is hard to understand is that the defensive part of the lineup is largely unchanged from last year and they look like they've never played together.  Is 3-5-2 simply the wrong formation for this group of players?  Doesn't it say something when my best memories of the match are Isaac Hayes Hayden doing great work in the right corner.  He's the center mid with key defensive responsibilities!  Again, that would be the manager.  But Newcastle were also a step too slow for most of the match and that is not on the manager.

Yes, only two matches in.  Joelinton headed a clear cut chance wide but he hardly got any service so let's not write him off yet.  Almiron is a good player but may be lost at the moment without the other Dos Amigos.  On paper, we should not be this bad.  The difference is that I had confidence that Benitez would figure it out; don't feel the same about Bruce.


Somewhere the Sun Is Shining

I had much more fun as a "neutral."  Everything else I watched was entertaining.  The early start with Arsenal taking Burnley 2-1 was close.  Aston Villa pretty clearly outplayed Bournemouth but were a bit unlucky with a PK in the first minute and a ricochet goal at 12 minutes in their 1-2 loss; even Dennis was satisfied with their play.  They stay ahead of Newcastle on the strength of one more goal scored.

Speaking of luck (or was it just efficiency?), Spurs had just two shots on target but scored on both and snuck away from the Etihad with a 2-2 draw.  The talking point there of course involved another VAR non-controversy.  Jesus had apparently scored the game winner in stoppage time except that the ball had clearly come off Laporte's arm.  Under the new rules, the goal has to be disallowed.  You can see the play here.  The best part was that Aguero, who had words with Guardiola when he was replaced by Jesus earlier, came down to hug his manager after the apparent game winner.  Wonder if the hug was taken back after the VAR decision.

Sunday was just as good as the Sheffield United home crowd was rewarded for their long wait for Premier League action with a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace, who have fewer goals than Newcastle at this point.  It may end up being a long season for the Blades but you have to be happy for the Sheffield fans right now.  The Chelsea-Leicester match was a great 1-1 draw.  We wrapped things up with a cracking 1-1 draw between Wolves and Man United.  Wolves continue to be a thorn in the side of the big six and I have them on the radar as my EPL team for next year when Newcastle play in the Championship division.


Turns Out There Are Dumb Questions

We realize Pep was probably upset after seeing the potential winning goal disallowed but this is just stupid.

Guardiola added: "Why is it not handball with Llorente in the Champions League quarter-final last season, but why is it hands today? Why?"

BECAUSE THEY CHANGED THE **CKING RULE!  Is it that hard to understand?  And now people are frustrated that accidental contact with the arm is cause for goals being ruled out when they were so outraged before that goals were being scored after accidental contact.  Just stop it.  For the record, I was okay with the old rule even though it was arguably harder for referees to sort out what was a violation and what was okay.


Relative Value

After hearing that Inter Milan paid a transfer fee of £72 million to obtain the services of forward Romelu Lukaku, BFS co-founder Dennis F asked "Am I not at least 1/72 the player he is and therefore worth at least £1 million?"  We have to agree and I have signed on as his agent and am entertaining offers at this point.  And I can guarantee that my client at least will not report to his new club overweight.


It's Almost Autumn and the Leaves Kits Are Changing Colors

First we saw the Bournemouth Cherries dressed as the Lemon-Limes for their away contest at Aston Villa (left).  Then Leicester showed up at Stamford Bridge with uniforms that appeared to have been washed in hot water with Man United shirts (below).  And is that the guy who scored the equalizer for Leicester?  N'didi it is.

Speaking of fun with names, late in the Man City Spurs match, I shouted at the screen when Spurs left a man wide open "Jesus, somebody has to mark him."  Dennis politely corrected me.  "No, that's Sterling."  Guess you had to be there.



Not Top of the Table Any More

Another inconsistent outing from the Union and this time it cost them an 0-2 defeat in Chicago.  A poor first half was capped off by Fire goals at 38 and 45 minutes.  Hopes for at least a draw were good though because Chicago had a man sent off in first half stoppage time.  Even with the man advantage, the Union could not find the net.  Final stats show 18 shots but a paltry three on goal.  Simply not good enough.

With Atlanta taking the measure of Portland 2-0, the Union ceded first place for the first time in over two months.  Watching that match, I'm starting to feel like the MLS is getting somewhere.  Intense and interesting.  A few weeks ago Bob K sent around highlights of the Cincinnati - Columbus derby.  Same thing.  Just more fun to watch other teams than I remember.

We continued to get some measure of help from the other clubs.  Vancouver beat DC United 1-0.  Red Bulls only managed 1-1 with Revolution. Columbus and Toronto drew, Orlando only got one point from Minnesota.  NYCFC did win over Cincinnati.  Red Bulls and NYCFC got midweek wins as well so the standings are getting more compressed.  First place was never really in my thinking but haven't given up hope on a top four finish.  Well, until I looked at the schedule.  After the home match with DC United this weekend, they play Atlanta, LAFC, and Red Bulls.  They finish with NYCFC.  That makes the matches with Columbus and San Jose close to must win if top four is the goal.


Chester Quad

Some luck, some skill involved but Chester did come home with the Champions League and FA Cup titles.  We got a break in that a few players came back from injury sooner than expected; actually that's not completely luck because I did research to get the best physios, who can reduce the amount of time lost to injury.  A second helpful development was that the four starters who were supposed to be with their international teams were all able to stick around for the FA Cup Final.  The Champions League win was not pretty (3-1 over Man United) but, of course, it won the title.  The 2-0 win over Man City for the FA Cup was a tight contest (second goal came in stoppage time) but Chester were playing the way I asked them to.  We allowed no shots on target and most of their attempts were from far out.  A satisfying end to the season.


Schedule

Away this weekend so viewing may be compromised, although I will be watching Spurs-Newcastle with Michael B Sunday at 11:30.  Early start to the weekend with a Friday match between Aston Villa and Everton at 3 pm Friday (NBCSN).

Best match of the weekend would be Liverpool - Arsenal as the NBC feature game at 12:30 on Saturday.  Kind of strange to say this but after just two weeks, these are the only two teams without a loss or draw.  Neither were at their best in wins last weekend.

If you're up early Saturday morning you can catch Norwich - Chelsea at 7:30 on NBCSN.  Not sure I'd set my alarm for that one.  The 10 am slate doesn't blow you away either.  Best of the lot looks to be Man United - Crystal Palace on NBCSN.  Sunday we have the aforementioned Spurs-Newcastle tilt but there's also Bournemouth - Man City at 9 am.  Actually, the most interesting match of the day is Wolves - Burnley at 11:30 but only on NBC Gold; these are two pretty solid clubs.

Saturday is also a big home match for the Union as they host DC United.  At 538 they have the Union as a big favorite but I'm not convinced.  DC dropped to 5th in the table after the midweek loss to Red Bulls so this is a big chance for the Union to created some cushion for a top four finish.  Atlanta have Orlando on the road but would suspect they'll come away with a win.  We get a break in that the Red Bulls face NYCFC so somebody's gonna drop points; with any luck, it will be both.

We saved the YouTubeableMoment for the end since it was kind against the run of the blog.  What a strike from Aduriz to give Athletic Club a 1-0 win over Barcelona.  Not bad for a 38 year-old.  And see Michael B, I do acknowledge the existence of La Liga.

Rereading this, I wasn't as bitter as I expected. We'll see how I'm doing after Spurs thrash Newcastle.

There's Always Next Year

Actually Newcastle weren't awful. Still a home loss though.  The Union were awful too but they stole a win anyway.

Ruing Rafa

Benitez certainly wasn't perfect but his mid-game adjustments and subs often made a difference.  Steve Bruce got off to rough start in that regard in the 0-1 defeat to Arsenal.  His named line up left him with no mid-field subs so when Shelvey had to go off with an injury, the resulting sub-optimal lineup possibly led to the only goal and certainly killed momentum for a while.  Some of the confusion may have been down to Willems not understanding where he was supposed to go but even once that was sorted out, the team looked lost.  Haven't seen an explanation for why Ki wasn't on the bench except that it wasn't an injury.

You never score from the top of the box...seats.
Andy Carroll in the stands at St. James' Park
(Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Sure an 0-1 to Arsenal doesn't sound too bad.  Except this wasn't exactly the highest caliber Gunner squad on the pitch. Ozil and Kolasinac were out due to security concerns (whoa, that is really messed up - looks like a continuing problem involving London-based gangs - details here).  Their big signings were on the bench, making inconsequential late match appearances.  Newcastle did have a shot off the post but the offense was generally underwhelming and they were often careless in possession.

Going glass is 1/8th full, there were positives.  Except for that shocking break-down on the goal set up by a poor pass, the defense does look solid.  Joelinton appears capable of being a legitimate replacement or even upgrade from Rondon.  Saint-Maximin could be a real live wire based on what we saw from his short stint.

Frankly, the team looked like what I expected.  Unfortunately my fears for relegation are up because based on what I saw this weekend, there are no obvious easy marks in the bottom half of the table.

Everybody Might Be Better Than Newcastle

As I said, not so confident about Newcastle's chances of avoiding relegation after seeing the weekend's results.  Aston Villa looked competent against Tottenham even though they ended up losing 1-3.  Spurs had the run of play but Villa led for much of the time after a nice smash and grab counterattack.  Sheffield United played tough at Bournemouth and came away with a point thanks to a late goal.  Brighton and Burnley, never offensive cogs, got 3-0 wins over Watford and Southampton respectively.  Crystal Palace held Everton scoreless in a 0-0 draw at Selhurst Park, though they were helped in that the Toffees did spend the last 15 or so minutes a man short.  No, of the usual relegation suspects, only Norwich played the part, falling to Liverpool 1-4.  Down 0-3 in the space of 28 minutes, Michael B texted to ask if these were the Canaries in the coal mine.  But even they managed a goal.  I guess maybe Southampton didn't shine either.  Not seeing obvious wins for Newcastle; they will have to fight for every point.

At the north end of the table, the biggest news was Man United clobbering Chelsea 4-0.  That final is misleading as it was 1-0 until 65 minutes.  Reminds me of Dennis's review of The Chronicles of Narnia - it was a good movie until it started to suck.  Red Devil fans must be thrilled though.  Man City wasn't really tested by West Ham, but again the final (5-0) makes it sound worse than it really was, with three of the goals coming after 74 minutes.  I didn't get to watch much of Leicester vs Wolves but at 0-0 that had to be a disappointing affair.

VAR Fainting Couch 

I forget where I read this but there were something like 70 VAR checks in the weekend's 10 matches.  I happened to see the three that resulted in on-field calls being changed.  Somehow every one of these will be controversial even though they really aren't.  First of all, the flow of the game argument has to stop.  In a sport where players regularly disrupt play with minor, or worse, imaginary injuries, waiting 30 seconds to review a critical play is the least of our problems.  Second, more often than not, the complainant's issue is with the rules, not VAR.  This is definitely the case for the goal taken away from Wolves because the VAR noticed the ball came off an attacker's arm.  Santo is unhappy but the new rule is very clear; even accidental and unintentional handling by an attacker in the box that leads to a goal is going to be called.  Further, this did not look like re-refereeing but a case where the referee didn't see the contact.  

I confess I was ready to jump on the fainting couch when Fabianski's stop of Aguero's PK was about to be retaken for not having one foot on the line.  But, but, you guys said you weren't going to use VAR for that.  And indeed they aren't.  The retake was because of Rice's encroachment, which was not inconsequential as he was the first player to the ball to clear it.  Again, not a different interpretation of what the referee saw but notification of something he didn't see.  So we're good there too.

Which leaves us with Sterling's offside which resulted in a goal being taken away.  Somewhat more sympathetic here.  The argument is that it's not a judgment, you are either on or off.  The picture (left) says Sterling is offside.  Except this is not quite like the more exact science of goal line technology.  The line is drawn based on when the reviewer believes the ball was struck.  It's also drawn based on the reviewer's interpretation of where the relevant body parts are.  Move the red dotted line back a little bit more on Sterling's torso and he's not offside.  This is arguably a bit of re-refereeing.  So close the AR didn't call it but the video guy gets a second, closer look.  But I don't see how you modify the VAR approach to offside.  How do you come up with objective criteria to let a call stand even when your best evidence shows it shouldn't.  Put me down as "in for a penny in for a pound."  I'll take VAR if this is its worst aspect.


Answer to Last Week's Test

In case you didn't look it up:

Club	Manager
Arsenal	Unai Emery
Aston Villa	Dean Smith
Bournemouth	Eddie Howe
Brighton	Graham Potter
Burnley	Sean Dyche
Chelsea	Frank Lampard
Crystal Palace	Roy Hodgson
Everton	Marco Silva
Leicester	Brendan Rogers
Liverpool	Jurgen Klopp
Man City	Pep Guardiola
Man United	Ole Gunnar Solskjaer
Newcastle	Steve Bruce
Norwich	Daniel Farke
Sheffield United	Chris Wilder
Southampton	Ralph Hasenhuttl
Tottenham	Mauricio Pochettino
Watford	Javi Gracia
West Ham	Manuel Pellegrini
Wolves	Nuno Espirito Santo

Defending First Place

For the second weekend in a row, the Union retook first place after briefly losing it to Atlanta.  This time was more difficult, especially given that Houston managed to keep 11 on the field for the whole match.  Actually, I don't think that's true.  Can't find it and erased the video but pretty sure a Houston player got hurt after they had made their three subs and spent the last few minutes down a man.  What also made it more difficult was wretched passing by the Union.  But there they were at full time, 2-1 winners.  A scruffier pair of goals you'll not find.  The first, by shuh-BILL-koh, went through the keeper's legs.  The game winner from Jack Elliott came from some lucky pinballing.  Still, it is a game winner and is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Is it a sign of a new attitude that the post game sentiment was "We better play better" instead of "We'll take three points any way we can get them?"

For the most part, scoreboard watching continues to be a pleasant pastime.  The Red Bulls lost, Orlando drew and while Atlanta did win, their victim was NYCFC.  Another week at the top of the table and another week closer to a good finish.



Chester Alums

Perusing the opening day rosters for the EPL squads, I saw no current Chester Blues.  There are a few alumni sprinkled around including:

Josh King - Bournemouth
Gylfi Sigurdsson - Everton
Paul Pogba - Man United
Luke Freeman - Sheffield United

We did finish out the regular season with wins to capture our 4th straight EPL title, outdistancing Liverpool by 10 points.  Now come the Champions League final (vs Man United) and the FA Cup Final (vs Man City).

Week Two

An immediate test for Newcastle with a road trip to Norwich.  What a barometer this will be.  According to 538, expect bad weather – they have Norwich at 39%, Newcastle 33% with a 28% chance of a draw.  A draw seems a likely result which would not be terrible but not great.  That match is 10 am on NBC Gold.  Dennis and I will be watching that one as well as the Aston Villa Bournemouth match (10 am Saturday on CNBC) together.  Something about misery loves company.

Key contest of the weekend is Man City hosting Tottenham on Saturday at 12:30 on NBC.  Not real optimistic about Spurs’ chances here but remember what they did last year in the Champions League.  Other TV matches include the early bird special at 7:30 am Saturday featuring Arsenal vs Burnley, Southampton Liverpool (10 am on NBCSC) and two more on Sunday – Sheffield United hosting Crystal Palace (9am NBCSN) and Leicester heading to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea (11:30 am NBCSN).  Will be interested to see how Chelsea respond after last week’s spanking by Man United.  And speaking of the Red Devils, we get a bonus Monday match with Man United traveling to take on Wolves at 3 pm on NBCSN.

Full schedule for MLS too.  The Union, DC United and Atlanta are listed as underdogs at 538 for their road contests with Chicago, Vancouver and Portland respectively.  Facing Cincinnati, this may be a chance for NYCFC to gain ground on the others.  Same for the Red Bulls, who host New England.

In short, another crowded weekend.

Another Season on the Brink?

Let's hope we see a lot of this -
 Almiron (l) and Joelinton high-fiving

I had almost gotten to a point of believing that Newcastle might not suck this year until I read a slew of season previews.  Wow.  Pundit after pundit has the Magpies in the bottom three.  Seems like they are less than impressed with Joelinton and Saint-Maximin, Newcastle's two key summer signings.  The Guardian suggests that Joelinton looks good but is injury prone and Saint-Maximin's work ethic might not be all that it needs to be.

I take solace that 538 has the Magpies at 13th.  That seems about right to me.  Yes, they lost Perez and Rondon.  But the defense from last year is intact, and actually may be better if LeJeune and Longstaff stay in the line up all year.  That defense yielded equal 7th fewest goals in the EPL.  On the attacking side, they will have Almiron for the full season and both Joelinton and Saint-Maximin look to be offensive threats.  In other words, Almiron may be the Unos Amigo after the departure of Rondon and Perez but it looks like he might have help.  Not saying this squad is close to qualifying for Europe or even a top 10 finish.  And it's very possible they'll never do well enough to make a clear break from the bottom three.  But I don't see Newcastle as an obvious relegation candidate.  The frustration that may bleed through the commentary here is more about what this franchise could and should be - a regular upper table finisher instead of a perennial relegation avoider.

Touring around the EPL predictions, you mostly get Man City, Liverpool and Spurs as 1-2-3.  Fourth is divided up among Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United.  The upper mid-table is inhabited by Everton, Leicester, Wolves and West Hampton.  Though not as highly rated, I didn't see anybody calling for Crystal Palace,  Watford or Southampton to be relegated.  After that you have seven teams that look like possible relegation candidates.  Frankly I don't see Bournemouth belonging in that list but some do.

I did a simple spreadsheet of the 13 predictions I found.  There were many, many others that did top four and relegations but I couldn't use them for this table.  Very unscientific so we can't really call it a meta analysis but it was fun to see if there was general consensus.

	Average	High	Low
Man City	1.15	1	2
Liverpool	1.85	1	2
Tottenham	3.31	3	5
Chelsea	4.77	3	8
Arsenal	5.00	3	6
Man United	5.31	4	8
Everton	7.77	7	9
Leicester	7.92	5	10
Wolves	8.54	6	10
West Ham	10.00	7	15
Watford	12.31	10	17
Bournemouth	13.31	11	19
Crystal Palace	13.38	10	17
Southampton	13.69	12	16
Aston Villa	14.69	12	20
Burnley	14.85	10	19
Newcastle	17.15	13	20
Brighton	17.77	16	20
Sheffield United	17.92	9	20
Norwich	17.92	11	20

Manager Match Game

I count six new faces on the sidelines this year plus some that may not have fully registered in your brain from last year.  Can you match the club with the manager?  Answers next week, or on the internet if you want to check for yourself.

Club		Manager
Man City		Graham Potter
Liverpool		Steve Bruce
Tottenham		Chris Wilder
Chelsea		Pep Guardiola
Arsenal		Roy Hodgson
Man United		Brendan Rogers
Everton		Dean Smith
Leicester		Eddie Howe
Wolves		Frank Lampard
West Ham		Marco Silva
Watford		Mauricio Pochettino
Bournemouth		Unai Emery
Crystal Palace		Jurgen Klopp
Southampton		Manuel Pellegrini
Aston Villa		Nuno Espirito Santo
Burnley		Daniel Farke
Newcastle		Ole Gunnar Solskjaer
Sheffield United		Ralph Hasenhuttl
Brighton		Javi Gracia
Norwich		Sean Dyche

Union Dis United

He's not doing karaoke; Union captain Alejandro Bedoya
ran to the nearest mic after scoring to urge Congress to
do something about gun violence
 (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Last week we wrote about the big differential in the Union's fortunes with and without Wagner and Monteiro in the lineup.  Sunday they both played and the score was 5-1.  At some point it can't be coincidence.  Sure the Union's cause was helped by playing a man up from 40 minutes on.  However, they were on DC's case from the gecko, with Bedoya finding the net in just the third minute.  They dominated the rest of the half and the sending off was a direct result of all the pressure.  BTW, that red card was VAR assisted, correctly IMHO.  Though shuh-BILL-koh missed the ensuing PK, Fabian did get a second tally in first half stoppage time. The critical timing and elegant simplicity of the goal make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  A third in the 52nd minute seemed to put things to bed, except that DC got a Brillant goal (no, that's the guy's name - Frederick Brillant) a few minutes later to bring some doubt into the situation.  Fortunately Fabian and later Picault added insurance goals to salt away a truly key road victory and move the Union back to top of the table.

Atlanta had temporarily taken over first on the strength of a 3-0 handling of LA Galaxy on Saturday evening.  A slightly disappointing affair based on our expectations; LA playing without Ibrahimovic (yellow card suspension) took away some of the game's luster.  Red Bulls beat Toronto while Real Salt Lake took care of NYCFC.  So we should see this as a good weekend when first place was under attack and the Union were up to the task.


Chester to Champions League Final

We took a 5-2 aggregate win over Real Madrid, advancing the Chester Blues to the Champions League final.  That was sandwiched around a terrible performance in a 1-0 win over Stoke and a dominating effort in an 0-1 loss to Newcastle.  Worse, our second leading scorer broke his arm and will be out for the Champions League final.  And, we just found out that we'll be missing five players for the FA Cup Final as they have been called up for the Gold Cup; the list includes our number one keeper and right winger and our number two defender and striker.  Regardless of how things end it will have a been a great season but the quad is so close.  We still look good for the EPL title and our depth may be enough to cover the absences.


Break's Over

Hopefully you've completed your big summer projects because it's time to get serious about watching some soccer.

Things kickoff Friday at 3 pm (NBCSN) with Liverpool hosting Norwich at Anfield; frankly it's hard to see this as much of a contest but since it's the first one, we'll be watching.  Saturday morning starts early with a 7:30 (NBCSN) contest between West Ham and Man City; again, not seeing this as a close one but it's the only thing on.  The 10 am NBCSN game is Bournemouth vs Sheffield United.  We're more likely to check out Crystal Palace - Everton on NBC Gold (everybody's subscriptions up to date?).  The NBC feature match up at 12:30 is Spurs hosting newly promoted Aston Villa; Dennis already has this one down as a "L" for the Villans.

Three matches of interest for us on Sunday.  At 9 am (NBCSN) we'll be settling in to see Newcastle host Arsenal.  Though not as awful as the away fixture, the Magpies generally do not do well against the Gunners; 538 has Arsenal at 45% chance of winning and 25% chance of a draw.  Side story will be the size of the fan boycott at Saint James' Park.  The size of the boycott won't be clear from the announced attendance because many of the potential protesters are season ticket holders; more telling will be the number of empty seats.  The other 9 am match on CNBC looks to be a cracker with Leicester hosting Wolves; both teams are noted for attractive football so if you don't like car crashes you might do better to choose this one over Newcastle-Arsenal.  The EPL weekend concludes at 11 am on NBCSN with the marquee match of the weekend, Man United vs Chelsea at Old Trafford.  As you saw from the predictions, these two are expected to fight it out for one of the Champions League positions so we're expecting a good one.  Ole Gunner is way up there in the odds for first manager to be sacked so he would benefit greatly from a win here.

Plenty to follow on this side of the pond too.  Union are home against Houston on Sunday night; that really has to be a win.  NYCFC uses up one of its games in hand tonight taking on Houston; probably a win for them but maybe it saps Houston a little for Sunday.  After last week's mini-bust in Atlanta I'm a little hesitant to recommend again but Sunday at 3:55 on ESPN you can see Atlanta host NYCFC.  This should be a good match.  Also nice that two in the chase pack have to play each other.  The Red Bulls are on the west coast to face LAFC while DC take on the LA Galaxy in Washington.  Toronto host Orlando so they probably get a win and don't give up any ground in the playoff race.  A quick reminder of MLS playoff priorities:

- top seven to make playoffs
- top four to have home field advantage
- first place to get first round bye

With all the playoffs now one game only, that home field advantage could be critical.


Breaking Post Posting News - Newcastle have signed Andy Carroll.  Haven't seen the particulars but it sounds like the deal is heavy on incentives, as in, if he plays he gets paid but if he's injured a lot, it won't cost too much.  I'm okay with a deal like that.  Wouldn't have wanted to see them risk big bucks and have him sit on sidelines but this sounds good.

Don't Look Back, Something Might Be Gaining on You

Thank you Mr. Paige.  For the Union that something would be the rest of the MLS East.  For Newcastle, it's the Championship Division.  Not a good week for either franchise.


Can You Have Four Goals Against the Run of Play?

Ever come out of a knife fight thinking you whupped the other guy only to find you took a stiletto in the back early on and were in big trouble?  Yeah, me neither.  But the Union's 0-4 defeat at Montreal must be what it's like.   Sure looked like the Union were controlling the match from the get-go, except they surrendered goals at 4, 36, 46 and 66 minutes.  The stats show 64-36 possession advantage, 8-1 on corners, 13-11 on shots; perhaps tellingly shots on target were 3-6.  So was this a counterattacking master class or lousy defending?  Likely both.  Ray Gaddis will want to destroy any game film.  Wasn't Blake's finest 90 minutes either.  There were some scoring chances but not that many given the possession advantage.

Another day when they clearly missed Wagner (yellow card accumulation suspension) and probably Monteiro (sprained ankle).  Piecing together the Union with and without Wagner I get the following:

	Vith	Vithout
Games	20	4
Record	10-5-5	1-1-2
Points	35	4
PPG	1.75	1.00
Goals allowed	27	9
GA per game	1.35	2.25

Now clearly we have a small numbers problem with the few times that Wagner hasn't played but the differences are noticeable.  The numbers with and without Monteiro are pretty striking too and number of games without is higher:

	With	Without
Games	15	9
Record	8-4-3	3-2-4
Points	28	11
PPG	1.87	1.22
Goals allowed	20	16
GA per game	1.33	1.78
Goals scored	30	11
GS per game	2.00	1.22

Not quite as big on the PPG and GA per game but notice the difference in scoring.

I mentioned that the MLS is gaining on the Union but that's not completely true.  NYCFC got three over Sporting KC and DC United did manage a draw at Chicago.  However, Red Bulls lost at home to Columbus and Atlanta went down to LAFC on the west coast.  So at the start of August, they still sit top of the table.  On points per game, only NYCFC is better.  But it still feels like the rest of the conference is closing in.  Under the new playoff format, goal number one is to finish in the top seven.  Despite our first place position,  8th place Toronto is just seven points back with a game in hand.  That means a playoff berth is by no means assured at this point.  Good to have both Wagner and Monteiro back starting this weekend.


Same Old Same Old Tyneside

Meet the new summer transfer window, same as the old transfer window.  Can't get people off the roster either because their wages are too high or Newcastle get stuck on a target transfer fee and won't budge.  Or both.  Can't get people as the total wage bill is too high because we can't move people off the roster plus we get stuck on transfer fee and won't budge.  Or both.  So any transfer that we do get come in late in preseason and take time to fit in with the squad.  The perfect recipe for another poor start to a season which begins in a week. 

Going glass is 1/8th full for a moment, the Joelinton signing was cool because 1) he looks like a good player and 2) Newcastle actually put out £40 million. [Quick aside here - the easy way to put the £ sign in text is to hold the Alt key, type 0163, then release the Alt key.  Where else you gonna get this stuff?]  Also, we have some hope that the Magpies will hold onto Longstaff and Hayden.  And the news on bringing in French winger Allan Saint-Maximin looks positive.

 Bournemouth have the best preseason bonding exercises
Photograph: Robin Jones/AFC Bournemouth
 via Getty Images

The season kicks off next Friday afternoon with Liverpool v Norwich and continues with a full slate of matches on Saturday and Sunday.  The Guardian has a great preview series in which they release two teams previews in alphabetical order a day.  So far they've done eight; 19th place (Brighton) is taken but two other relegation spots are unclaimed at this point.  I'm inclined to think that Sheffield United and Norwich will get the other two which makes me think Newcastle will be slotted either 17th or 13th based on spots already taken.  You can follow the series here.


Chester Roll

Bernardo's strike from about 25 yards steals a win for Chester
over Man United in the 89th minute at Old Trafford

I must have done some things right.  We are into the FA Cup Finals against Man City and the Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid.  We have a three point lead over Liverpool with two games in hand with six matches to play; we will finish no worse than second.  The player complaints have stopped, only one serious injury problem right now and complacency doesn't seem to be an issue.  Line up work every time and tactical decisions, not necessarily my strong suit, get the results I'm looking for.  Maybe it just took a while for things to gel with the bigger roster, which has really paid off with a schedule that rarely includes four days without a match.  We've met all the board's goals so in some ways, anything else is gravy but it would be nice to pull off the quad.


Last Week of Vacation

The Union are in DC for critical match Sunday at 7:30.  A loss would put DC ahead on goal differential if goal differential were the tie breaker.  But it's wins so the Union could still retain first with a loss.  That is, if Atlanta don't beat the Galaxy at home on Saturday.  I recommend tuning into that one at 5 pm on Fox.  Other than the fact that it's indoors on turf, this should be a good contest in front of about 60,000 rabid fans.

This is the last slow weekend until sometime next May so get your yardwork done now.