Reality Bites

Newcastle come down to earth and the new Union look a lot like the old Union.

Declan Rice  played a big role in WHU's defeat of Newcastle

West Ham made Newcastle look like a relegation candidate again.  The Magpies were flat and gave up two first half goals.  Almiron was invisible.  LeJeune had a poor game including a foul in the box.  Better second half but couldn't cut into the deficit. The 0-2 loss reminds us of the harsh reality that, though improved, there's still work to be done.  Adding injury to insult, Sean Longstaff left the match with some type of knee problem; turns out he's gone for the season.  Fortunately, we have Shelvey and Ki as replacements so this is not a total disaster.

Good stuff around the league.  The North London derby had all the snarl and talking points you could want.  I believe Arlo White called it "glorious chaos."  I thought referee Anthony Taylor was evenly lenient for most of the match, letting crunching tackles go uncarded until about 60 minutes, at which point he had to rein things in to avoid a riot.  The 1-1 draw, ignoring that Kane should have been flagged for offside as opposed to awarded a PK (more on that below), seemed like a fair result. We suspect Spurs fans were likely happier than Gunners supporters with the outcome.

While context and tension made the derby a good watch, free flowing, attacking football with quality goals made the Man United - Southampton match a pleasure to take in.  Despite knowing the final score, I watched it anyway to see exactly how Man United came away with the 3-2 win.  Felt like a good use of 90 minutes.  And to make Jeff H happy, we'll use Lukaku's game winner at 88 minutes for this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Sunday's Merseyside derby was a prime example of a thrilling 0-0 match.  Everton supporters likely the happier lot, with Liverpool dropping two more points and slipping behind Man City, who had held off a stubborn Bournemouth side for a 1-0 win on Saturday.  Fulham managed to score against Chelsea, something that notably Man City and Tottenham couldn't do, but the Blues still came away with the 2-1 win.


Projections and the Run-in

Michael and I are still debating about exactly when the run-in starts - last week in March or maybe first week in April.  It's close enough for me to break out the BFS Prediction Model, which uses the projected results for each match from 538.  For each match, they project the probability of A winning, B winning and the match ending in a draw.   Whereas 538 does their point projection based on the percentages, I force a winner or a draw for each match.  By way of example, they project a 57% chance that City will win the Manchester derby, with a 22% chance it ends in a draw and a 21% chance United win.  So their model gives City an expected 1.93 points out of the match and .85 for United.  I take the projection as saying City are favored to win so I give them all three points.  Probably more than you wanted to know...

Anyway, 538 has City winning the title by two points over Liverpool.  My approach says they both win out from here so Man City takes the title by one point.  They round out the top six with Tottenham, Chelsea, Man United and Arsenal.  My approach projects that Arsenal closes with nine straight wins to grab third from Spurs, with Chelsea and Man United fifth and sixth.  Man United definitely have a difficult set of fixtures ahead, including matches against Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea; away matches versus Wolves and Everton could be troublesome as well.  The 538 projected standings are available here.

Rooting around at the lower end of the table, we see Huddersfield, Fulham and Cardiff getting relegated.  My approach has Cardiff getting just one more point but that's probably too low.  They do have matches with Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man United but they also could easily grab some points from the likes of Brighton, Burnley, Fulham and Crystal Palace.  Even still, very unlikely they'll get much more than 30 points, which means Newcastle might already be safe.  I get the Magpies with 37 points in 15th while 538 shows them 14th with 41.  Home and dry either way but not exactly a stellar finish.  Like I said, still work to do before we can even call them a solid mid-table team.


Champions League

Some good results for EPL sides.  Tottenham, going into the second leg with a 3-0 lead, weathered early pressure from Dortmund, got an early goal from Kane in the second half and cruised into the quarter finals.  Michael B was so happy he bought me dinner at Earth Bread and Brewery.  Ajax completed the shredding of three time champion Real Madrid.  Don't hear too much whining about this, but then I don't know any RM fans.  Both Man United and Porto needed late PKs awarded with the aid of VAR (more below) to punch their tickets to the quarters.  Exciting stuff.


SOU (Same Old Union)

Okay, it's only the opening match but for a team with some important personnel changes and a new formation, this felt like old times.  We dominated play for the opening 30 minutes and was happy with the way Fabian and Ilsinho worked together.  But we got no goals and were opened up in stoppage time in the first half.  Toronto added another in the second and things looked hopeless.  A late PK gave us some hope but really we didn't challenge in the last 15 minutes and ended up giving up one more for a 1-3 final.  Live at the stadium, our impression was that Medunjanin might not be up to the task as the defensive midfielder in a diamond midfield.  Post game analysis seems to support that view.  Last year, he was one of two holding midfielders but might not be able to handle the job by himself.  Apparently in response, the Union have added Jamiro Monteiro on loan from a second division French team.

Announced attendance was 16,498.  Based on actual bodies in the stadium I believe that means Jeff and I were counted as 6.


This Week's U12 Moment

We're offering a choice of:

You can sort of see Blake's huge neck muffler 

1) Firmino's delayed entry into match for Liverpool against Everton because he left his jersey in the
lockerroom
2) Union keeper Andre Blake started match with neck muffler to stay warm (it was cold as Jeff K and I will attest) but after a scramble in front of his goal, an assistant coach ran down the line and yelled for him to take it off.



Talking Refereeing and VAR

2nd from top is not
out of play!

VAR, or lack thereof, was way too prevalent a topic this week.  Harry Kane was clearly, though narrowly, offside when he was fouled for a PK, which he converted to level the Tottenham - Arsenal match.  I didn't think Aubameyang was fouled in the box, though Lloris saved that PK.  I thought VAR would have overturned both PKs, though Graham thought the Aubameyang foul might have withstood review.  Also, we had claims from some that the foul on Kane occurred before the actual offside offense so the PK was correct.  I'll admit that deciding exactly when a player is challenging for the ball is subjective but he does not have to touch the ball for the offense to be flagged.  The PGMOL (Professional Game Match Officials LTD - the administrative body overseeing EPL officials) was quick to note that the play should have been flagged for offside.

I forget which match it was, probably Real Madrid - Ajax, when a team scored shortly after the ball looked like it might have been out of play.  Numerous replays to me were unclear but the announcers were making a big deal out of seeing grass between the ball and the touch line, as if this made it obvious that the ball was out of play.  Oy, not the determining factor.  It's the plane of the edge of the ball.  See the photo above - inbounds is to the left.  Only the ball on top is out of play.

The Union match was not a pretty sight from a refereeing perspective, not that it really affected the outcome.  Nima Saghafi spent much of the match running around with his finger in his ear, communicating with the VAR.  He took too long to make decisions - please use the 30 second guideline (Dennis says 15 seconds).  If it takes longer than that, it's not obvious.  Also, how was it not obvious that the ball struck Wagner in the chest, not even the shoulder?  Fortunately Blake saved that PK.

What to say about Man United advancing over PSG on a late hand ball call?  On the field it was signaled as a corner but VAR told the ref to review and after looking at the replay, he awarded a PK.  You can see the play here.  Not a handball for me, especially in a VAR situation, where the call on the field was no handling.  Opinion on the web is very much split.  Rule changes on handling are coming in June - we'll have more on that next week.

To end this section on a more positive note, Porto were the beneficiaries of a, IMHO, proper use of VAR.  In the closing stages of extra time, a Roma defender grabbed the back of a Porto attacker's jersey in the box.  The call on the field was goal kick but the ref got the signal from VAR to check it out.  Didn't take long to see the infraction and overturn the call.  PK converted and Porto move on. I suppose it's questionable whether the attacker would have reached the ball without the shirt pull but I have no problem with this use of VAR here.  Grab a jersey in the box, get a PK.  If VAR cuts down on that BS, I'm all for it.


Schedule

Most important match of the weekend is clearly Arsenal vs Man United at Sunday at 12:30.  A loss for either is a big blow to their Champions League chances.  The start time reminds me that we "spring forward" this Sunday while England waits a few more weeks.

Newcastle are on TV for the third consecutive match, a tough one at home to Everton (10 am Saturday on CNBC).  I'd be happy to see improved play and maybe grab a point.  The other Saturday 10 am TV game has Tottenham traveling to Southampton.  A Spurs win would also benefit Newcastle.  Just sayin'.

First and second probably doesn't change this week as Man City host Watford (NBC feature match on Saturday at 12:30) while Liverpool host Burnley (Sunday at 8 am on NBCSN).  I suppose Watford pose a bit of a challenge but still would expect City to see them off.  Chelsea have a tricky match on Sunday against Wolves; woe to the team that takes these guys lightly.

The weekend starts with Crystal Palace - Brighton from Selhurst Park at 7:30 Saturday morning.  Both are probably safe anyway but one will be safer with a win.

Sunday also see the Union taking on Sporting KC at 3 pm.  A road match, we have every reason to think the Union will start the season with two losses.  Wait, Atlanta comes to town next week so make that three losses.

Don't forget midweek Champions League action.  On Tuesday we have Man City (up 3-2 from the first leg) hosting Schalke and Atletico heading to Juventus carrying a two goal lead.  Wednesday has two matches where the first legs were 0-0 draws - Liverpool travel to face Bayern while Barcelona are home to Lyon.  All matches are 4 pm (Europe not springing forward yet).  One match each day will be on TNT.

That should hold you until the weather warms up.