"Magpies Are Flying Again"

With home wins over Huddersfield and Burnley, Newcastle are assured of at least another two weeks clear of the relegation zone.  If the past is any indicator, they are probably within a couple of wins of avoiding a drop for the second consecutive year.  Not necessarily scintillating or high quality action but the Magpies kept two clean sheets and showed some offensive spark.

No Miguel, we applaud you

Things didn't start out great with Huddersfield; the Terriers probably had the run of play for 15-20 minutes.  Newcastle got a big break when Tommie Smith earned a straight red with a high booted challenge.  A man up, the chances started to fall the way of the Magpies but they were denied a few times by the post or the keeper.  Thinking as the whistle blew on a 0-0 half that this was going to be totally unacceptable; anything less than three points would be a loss.  Fortunately Rondon and Perez scored goals in the opening minutes of the second half and the match was never in doubt from that point on.  No goals or assists from Almiron but he clearly sparked the offense with speed down the wing, insightful passes and some flair.

Tuesday was expected to be much tougher against an in-form Burnley, who hadn't lost since 2018.  The Magpies took charge of this one, looking much more dangerous from the start.  The opening goal though came on an unexpected rocket from Fabian Schar.  Pretty much placed in the only spot that could beat keeper Heaton, it is easily this week's
YouTubeableMoment.   A second from Sean Longstaff at 38 minutes gave Newcastle some cushion. The lads did surrender a few good chances but managed to keep another clean sheet.  The reviews for Almiron were carbon copies of Saturday; Newcastle are simply more dangerous with him in the line up.

So we shoot all the way up to 13th in the table.  We are closer to ninth place than 18th.  It hasn't taken more than 40 points to stay up since 2002/03.  At 31 points, we're probably three to seven points from safety.  Our goal differential is also better than most of the relegation candidates, which is essentially worth another point.  On the other hand, reviewing the final ten matches doesn't yield too many obvious wins.  The most likely win - home to Fulham - is unfortunately on the final day of the season, leaving me with the queasy feeling that things might not be wrapped up until then.  Would hope they take some points at home vs Crystal Palace and Southampton. Maybe something from Everton.  Just shows how critical these six points were.

Is There A Doctor in the House?

The marquee Man United -Liverpool match was plagued with a rash of injuries.  United had to use all three subs by halftime due to injuries.  First Herrera went down.  Then Mata was out, replaced with a less than fully healed Lingard, who himself went down at 43 minutes.  And the whole time, Rashford was looking like he might pull up lame at any point.  Liverpool lost Firmino at 31 minutes as well.  Not all that surprising when the match ended 0-0.  Man United were probably the happier side about that.

Crystal Palace sealed Claude Puel’s fate with a 4-1 thumping of Leicester (at King Power no less).  Frankly, Leicester had the run of play but the Eagles “smash and grab” style put more balls in the net.  Puel was sacked a few days later, to be replaced by Brendan Rodgers.  Fulham continued its habit of scoring first but still losing as they fell 1-3 to West Ham. 

Spurs stumbled at Turf Moor, falling 1-2 to Burnley.  Unexpected but note that Burnley (before losing to Newcastle on Tuesday) had been undefeated in 2019.  Arsenal continued to insinuate themselves into the Champions League fight with a win over Southampton.  Several teams were off due to the League Cup Final on Sunday so the schedule was a little light.

League Cup

I will say the line ups were pretty honest given that both sides had midweek matches.  However, the quality of play suggests maybe their heads were elsewhere.  Over the course of the 120+ minutes of the weak 0-0 draw, Chelsea managed exactly 0 shots on target.  City only had three.  Seemed like everything was a)wide, b) high, or c) wide and high.  City eventually prevailed in kicks from the spot.  Whatever.  A final worthy of the status of this competition.  It is totally superfluous to the FA Cup.

But the contest was not totally devoid of interest.  Late in the second period of extra time, Chelsea keeper Arrivabeluaga  Arizobloga Kepa seemed to be suffering from leg cramps.  With kicks from the spot looming, Sarri moved quickly to get Willy Caballero into the match.  Given Cabellaro's  performance a few years ago in a League Cup shoot out, this seemed like a doubly good move.  But Kepa refused to come off.  You can watch the whole incredible scene here.  Stunning to watch.  See how Sarri nearly storms out?  Later of course, everybody says its just a misunderstanding.  Right. Epilog: Kepa did stop one shot but also let a soft one in. Epilog Part II: Kepa fined a week's pay and earned a seat on the bench for the Tottenham match.

Champions League Races Tighten

The main story out of the mid-week matches is how close league title race is and how tight the competition for the Champions League spots has become.  Liverpool and Man City got their wins and sit 1-2 with 69 and 68 points respectively.  Tottenham did not bounce back from the Burnley defeat and frankly looked at bit at sea in an 0-2 loss to Chelsea.  Team politics aside, Sarri's team has consecutive clean sheets against Man City and Tottenham.  Man United and Arsenal got their wins as well.  The weekend starts with Tottenham at 60, Arsenal 56, Man United 55 and Chelsea 53.


MLS Season Opens

Fabian key to the Union season?
Photo by Marcelo Endelli/Getty Images

I'll be at Talen Energy Saturday afternoon as the Union open their 10th season hosting Toronto FC.  Reasons to be upbeat include the possibility that new additions Fabian, Santos, Wagner and Mbaizo make this a better squad.  The Union will ditch the 4-2-3-1 for a 4-4-2 diamond (one attacking midfielder, one defensive midfielder) which should create more scoring chances.  It may soften the defending a little but maybe this makes Blake's shot stopping ability more valuable.  I mean what's the value of him making 3-4 great saves a match if we keep losing 0-1?  Maybe with a more attacking formation those become 2-1 wins?  Reasons to be circumspect include the possibility that new additions Fabian, Santos, Wagner and Mbaizo wash out or that it takes time for them to play as a team or it takes the team time to adjust to the new system.  The MLS staff posted a season preview here, suggesting collectively that the Union will finish 4th.  Color me tickled if that pans out.

Because inquiring minds want to know, I compiled the season predictions for each of the six MLS writers.  Their collective wisdom is presented below. 

	Ben	Calen	Charlie	Matt	Bobby	Andrew	Average
	Baer	Carr	Davis	Doyle	Warshaw	Wiebe	Ranking
Atlanta	1	2	1	2	1	1	1.33
Red Bulls	3	1	2	1	3	2	2.00
DC United	5	4	4	3	2	3	3.50
Philadelphia	4	3	3	5	4	7	4.33
Columbus	2	5	8	7	7	6	5.83
NYCFC	7	6	7	8	8	5	6.83
Toronto	6	8	5	9	6	9	7.17
Montreal	10	9	10	4	9	4	7.67
Chicago	8	10	11	6	5	8	8.00
New England	11	11	6	10	12	10	10.00
Orlando	9	12	9	12	11	11	10.67
Cincinnati	12	7	12	11	10	12	10.67

Frequently consensus within a place or two but also some outliers.  What does Charlie Davis see in New England that no one else does?  Similar, is Calen Carr possessing info about Cincinnati not available to others?  And as a group they are all over the map on Montreal.  So apparently Atlanta is so good they can afford to lose Almiron and not miss a beat?  They did replace him with South American player of the year Pity Martinez.

Derby Derby

Things start bright and early Saturday morning with a 7:30 London derby with Spurs hosting Arsenal.  Big six pointer for Champions League position.  Arsenal are in much better form right now.

Third straight TV game for Newcastle as they travel to face West Ham in the featured 12:30 match (on NBCSN not NBC this week).  Looking for a good match there but realistically, a draw would be awesome.  Saturday 10 am has two TV games – both Manchester clubs (there’s a surprise).  City are at Bournemouth (CNBC) while United are home to Southampton (NBCSN).  Probably another six points total for collective Manchester.

Sunday offers another three TV games.  Getting up at 7 doesn’t sound like fun but Watford - Leicester might be worth it.  Fulham hosting Chelsea at 9 maybe not so much.  Then Sunday wraps up with a Merseyside derby, this time at Goodison Park; Everton have been erratic of late so Liverpool likely favored.  All three matches are on NBCSN.

With three inches of new snow and forecast rain overnight, the pitch at Talen Energy should be perfect for the opener.  The "good" news is that the forecast says just cloudy and 38 degrees at kickoff.  Regardless, BFS will be there so you don't have to.