Oh, To Be In England Now That April's There

Who knew Robert Browning was a football fan.

Looking at the calendar, there are only nine days in April without a Premier League fixture.  We can thank the FA Cup schedule for supplying us with mid-week contests throughout the month.  Welcome to the run in.

We start with 15 matches in five days beginning on Saturday.  Not saying all are tantalizing but there are some good ones.  Biggest is Liverpool-Tottenham Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN.  Liverpool can ill afford to drop any points between now and the finish if they want to battle Man City for the title.  But Spurs, who gave up a relatively cushy ride to a top four finish with some recent poor outings, will be looking to get back on track.  Btw, note the start time, which means England gets to DST on Sunday at 1 am.

"Little Shop of Horrors" for Newcastle?

Newcastle have one of their least productive fixtures on Monday at 3:00 (NBCSN) as they travel to London to face Arsenal.  Do they ever get a result here?  To the record book.  Since the inception of the EPL, Newcastle have gone 4-2-17 in this fixture.  And most of the results are on the front end.  The Magpies last got a win at Arsenal on 11/7/10.  They got a draw on 11/18/06.  So we go in with low expectations.

One match to look in on is Brighton-Southampton.  One might think this would be labeled a South Coast Derby except that neither club seems to think of it as such.  Probably just not enough history.  Anyway, both are uncomfortably close to the drop zone and will be looking for points.  Could be some relegation flop sweat there.  That's at 11 am on Saturday on CNBC.  Other relegation candidates have some tough sledding.  Burnley must face Wolves (11 am Saturday on NBC Gold) and Cardiff City have to take on Chelsea (9:05 Sunday on NBCSN).  Crystal Palace have a golden opportunity to take themselves out of the mix with a home match against Huddersfield (11 am Saturday on NBC Gold).  Man City will likely make hash of Fulham in Saturday's early match.  Man United and their new permanent manager Ole Gunnar might have their hands full with Watford, even at Old Trafford (12:30 Saturday on NBCSN - not NBC).

For the mid-week matches, TV schedulers have sorted this out for us.  On Tuesday we can watch Wolves - Man United, a rematch of the recent FA Cup contest.  At 538, they give a slight edge to United but it has all the markings of a draw, which would be another blow to United's top four chances.  Wednesday we go with a London derby between Tottenham and Crystal Palace; Spurs should be solid here.  Both matches are on NBCSN at 2:45.  Relegation candidates Cardiff get no break and must take on Man City at the Etihad; 538 gives Cardiff a 1% likelihood of winning (so you're saying there's still a chance).  Brighton probably doesn't get a result at Stamford Bridge either so their relegation fears won't be diminished.


Goodbye, Columbus (apologies to Philip Roth and to The Association)

Accam after the storm?

So the Union went into Saturday's match against the Columbus Crew minus their starting keeper, playmaker, striker and midfielder and came away with a 3-0 win.  Yes, Columbus were missing some players too but at least they fielded a full squad of 18 players.  Much of the credit goes to David Accam, who had  two goals and an assist.  His dad had passed away during the week in Ghana but he chose to play ("this was the only thing that gives me joy").  For any number of reasons then, we can make his first goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  A big shout out to Haris Medunjanin for improved defensive work plus the key passes that set up Accam's goals (though he didn't get an assist for either).  A clean sheet points to a better defensive performance all around as well.

A reminder about why we shouldn't get so negative this early in the season - with the win, the Union are just three points out of first.  They are also just three points out of last.  Interesting match up this Saturday at 7:30 as the Union travel to Ohio for their first contest with the latest MLS expansion franchise, FC Cincinnati.  Make that 2nd place FC Cincinnati, coming off a draw, then two straight wins.  Probably a slight underdog, the Union should have a chance to come away with a point.  What lineup does Jim Curtin field for this one? Fabian is available, Burke is back.  Accam played well last time out, Aaronson played really well in his first match, okay in his second.  IMHO, Curtin should find a way to put Accam in the lineup.  We need to know if he's going to be the player he was at Chicago; if yes, we could be in for a good ride.


In 538 We Trust?

I pooh-poohed (sp?) the 538 forecast that had the Union as a clear favorite vs Columbus (51% chance of win, 26% chance of draw).  Hmmm.  What else do they say?

- EPL top four (in order of finish) will be Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal
- Cardiff, Fulham and Huddersfield will be relegated
- Newcastle will finish 14th
- The Union finish 8th in the MLS East (out of the playoffs)
- The new-look Phillies win 84 games and just miss the playoffs

From their lips to god's ear...

Even with all the viewing, don't forget to get outside and enjoy the good weather - that's why somebody invented dvr.

Preparing For the Run In

Two unexpected but deserved road draws for the BFS favorite sons plus a raft of late goals to make most of the weekend's action plenty interesting.


Surviving Mike Dean

Always nervous with Mike Dean in the center; he's never afraid to make an impactful call.  Which he did in Newcastle's match with Bournemouth.  With the Magpies up 1-0, thanks to a Rondon free kick in first half stoppage time, Dean nailed Fernandez for a foul in the box.  Many will argue that Fernandez's offense, arms on an attacker in the box on a free kick, happens on every free kick and this was just Dean's way of making his mark on the game.  Fankly I don't really have a problem with his call; don't drape your arms around or on top of an attacker in the box.  You're just giving the ref an excuse to make the call.  In Mike Dean's case, he always obliges.  I am a little miffed that, given Dean's reputation, we didn't get a call in the first half when Yedlin was wiped out in the box.

Close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. No goal.

Overall, Newcastle played pretty well and I was mildly disappointed as I resigned myself to the likely 1-2 loss after Josh King put the Cherries on top with a goal in the 81st minute.  It seemed only fair when Matt Ritchie stole a point back with a beautiful volley in the 94th minute.  As we will discuss below, last minute heroics were not in short supply this weekend but Ritchie gets this week's
 YouTubeableMoment.  Also must note that Paul Dummett put in another solid shift and saved the Magpies bacon with a critical clearance off the goal line to keep the match within reach.  Thrilled with the extra point and feeling just a little safer.


Better Late Than Never

A truly incredible spate of last minute or stoppage time goals this weekend.  Besides Newcastle, I count six other matches with late game heroics. Watford got a goal from Andre Gray in the 79th minute to move past Crystal Palace into the FA Cup semi-finals.  Down 1-3, West Ham scored at 75, 84 and 91 (the last two from Chicharito) to stun Huddersfield 4-3.  Leicester, down a man for most of the match, saw Wes Morgan get the game winner in the 90th minute to snatch a 2-1 win from Burnley.

Back in the FA Cup, Man City struggled to take the measure of Swansea City.  Down 0-2 through 68 minutes, Man City got three straight goals, the last at 88 minutes from Aguero, to secure their place in the semis.  I haven't seen the plays but articles suggest that the penalty call that led to the second goal might have been incorrect and that Aguero may have been offside on the game winner.  Some may note that VAR has been in place for some of the FA Cup.  That wasn't the case here as VAR is used only in FA Cup matches held in Premier League venues.

The trend continued on Sunday, as Liverpool needed a converted PK from James Milner in the 81st minute to vanquish Fulham 2-1; giving up two points to the 19th place Cottagers would have seriously dented Liverpool's title chances.   But the comeback of all was Brighton's FA Cup quarterfinal win over Millwall that went all the way to kicks from the spot.  The match was 0-0 through 69 minutes.  Two tallies from Millwall at 70 and 79 minutes appeared to have sealed a semi-final berth.  But Brighton rallied at 87 minutes and again in the 95th minute to send the match into extra time.  No scoring in extra time so it went to kicks from the spot, in which the Seagulls prevailed 5-4.  Condensed video is here.  Unfortunately the context is lacking but you see the two goals from Millwall, followed by the two goals from Brighton, and finish with the missed kick by Millwall that sends Brighton on.

The other two matches of note for the weekend didn't have the same drama, saving for the fact that both could be considered upsets.  In an FA Cup quarterfinal, Wolves added to their giant killer resume with a 2-1 win over Man United.  Despite less possession, Wolves had more shots on target (7 to 2) and seemed the likelier side to break open the 0-0 match.  Rashford's goal in the 95th minute, though in sync with the weekend's trend of late scoring, can't be considered late match heroics and only made the match seem closer than it was.   No late drama for Chelsea either as they fell 0-2 at Everton, severely compromising their chances of a top four finish.

BTW, the FA Cup semi-finals will feature Man City -Brighton on 4/6 and Watford vs Wolves on 4/7.  That second one could be a cracker as they say.

Ya done good kid. (Photo:Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)

Better Results By Keeping 11 on the Field

Recall that the Union's trip last year to Atlanta saw the squad reduced to nine men after red cards to Medunjanin and Bedoya in the 19th minute; we lost that one 1-3.  This year we kept 11 on the pitch the whole time and came away with a 1-1 draw.  A deserved draw we might add.  Yeah, Atlanta had more possession but shots were about even, as were good chances.  With Fabian serving a suspension, Brenden Aaronson (right) made his debut for the Union.  How'd that work out?  Well, aside from a solid work rate and creating some chances, he also got the first Union goal of the season from the run of play.  Yeah, it was slightly deflected but still.  Nice to see somebody put a shot on target.  Wagner had another good outing and looks to be the best of Tanner's off season moves.  We kept the defensive lapses to a minimum but couldn't keep out the tying goal from Barco.  Not sure if it was Medunjanin, Bedoya, Trusty or some combination of the all of the above that left Barco so wide open in the box.

Atlanta, at least right now, doesn't look like a squad that's going to breeze through the competition like last year.  But we'll take the point on the road.


This Week in Vocabulary

snood (plural snoods)

Liverpool manager sporting one of his snoods

1. A band or ribbon for keeping the hair in place, including the hair-band formerly worn in Scotland and northern England by young unmarried women.
2. A small hairnet or cap worn by women to keep their hair in place. quotations ▼
3. The flap of red skin on the beak of a male turkey. quotations ▼
4. A short line of horsehair, gut, monofilament, etc., by which a fishhook is attached to a longer (and usually heavier) line; a snell.
5. A piece of clothing to keep the neck warm; neckwarmer

For our purposes, we are interested in the last meaning, as in "Jurgen Klopp is often seen patrolling the sidelines in a snood when the weather is bad."  The word is often found in crossword puzzles so it might come in handy some day.


Europe and Friendlies

EPL is off this week for the international break.  You can catch qualifiers for the 2020 European Championships on the various ESPN networks.  I watched England dispatch the Czech Republic 5-0 on Friday.  We'll discuss the European Championship qualifying in more detail in a later post.

The Union do play Columbus Saturday at 7:30 at Talen Energy but will do so without several players including Fabian (second of two-game suspension), Blake, Burke, and Creavalle (international duty).  Somehow, 538 has us favored but I don't see it; I'd be happy with a draw.

Michael B and I have unilaterally decided that the EPL run in begins with next weekend's matches.

Three Amigos Tyneside

Newcastle get an improbable comeback win over Everton as the bottom of the table has a good weekend.


A Tale of Two Halves

Almiron, Perez and Rondon

Through 64 minutes all I could do was grouse about Newcastle being down 0-2 while watching teams below them beating better sides.  Then, an entirely different team took the pitch.  The comeback started with some incredible link-up play that ended with Rondon's volley into the net.  Clearly this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Don't miss Hayden's long pass to Rondon.  Next was Perez putting away the rebound of Almiron's blistered shot that Pickford could only parry.  And lastly came Perez with the game winner off a Hayden pass that first went to Rondon.  We'll ignore for the moment that Rondon was clearly offside. Though not as obvious as the contributions of the Three Amigos (Rondon, Perez, and Almiron), Hayden, Shelvey and Dummett were also key; the latter two were subs that suggest Benitez got things right again.

A huge win as the Magpies were staring at 16th place, just three points above the drop zone.  Sitting 13th with a six-point cushion doesn't sound all that much better but with so many teams below them, the chances of relegation are dramatically reduced.  In fact, 538 is listing them with a less than one percent chance now.


Relegation Rivals Do Well

Cardiff, Southampton, and Brighton also picked up wins - some more improbable than others - that made the Magpie comeback all the more important.  Cardiff took the measure of West Ham at home; that was probably two (or three?) unexpected points. Brighton got all three at Selhurst Park; a little surprising.  Then there was the stunner from the coast, where Southampton came from 0-1 to beat Tottenham 2-1; the win kept the Saints out of the bottom three while dropping Spurs squarely into race for the last two Champions League spots. On other weeks, the free kick from Ward-Prowse might have been the YouTubeableMoment; you can see it from the fans' perspective here (sorry Michael B).

Man City and Liverpool got their expected wins.  We advised here last week, don't take Wolves lightly; only a stoppage time goal rescued a 1-1 draw for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  And Arsenal looked very much in control as Man United finally lost under Ole Gunnar.  Spurs are still clearly in the race for a CL spot but can't be happy that their once secure position is under siege.  Don't want to count Man United out but the loss to Arsenal puts them at a big disadvantage.  538 says Spurs and Arsenal (on goal differential over Chelsea).  BFS says Arsenal and Spurs (on goal differential over Chelsea.  A great title race and a great CL race.


A Word About Selhurst Park

You all know the reverence we here at BFS hold for St. James' Park.  But where the Toon Army can be negative, the fans at Selhurst Park know only one way - singing and chanting regardless of the score.  On Saturday the Eagles, with their fans already in full-throat, were dominating play against Brighton.  Then a smash-and-grab goal from the Seagulls put them down 0-1.  A goal like that would have sent shivers down the collective spine of the St. James' Park crowd; instead, the Palace faithful increased their volume. Though the Eagles leveled things early in the second half, Brighton got a late goal to take all three points.  But the crowd's enthusiasm never diminished.  The "Five Guys from the USA" saw this on our trip; that day the Eagles fell to Chelsea 0-1 but the noise never stopped.  Simply an awesome venue.


WWVD (What Would VAR Do)? 

Ball is on Hayden's (far left) foot; Rondon (far right) will
 play it. Yeah, he's offside.

T'would have been a busy weekend for VAR, if the EPL was using it.  A quick summary based just on personal viewing.
1) Would Pickford have been sent off for DOGSO against Newcastle?  Probably not because of presence of defender but he might have picked up a yellow for a tactical foul.
2) Would the Newcastle winner have been reversed for offside?  Almost certainly yes (see picture).
3) Should the AR's initial call of offside that was overruled by Paul Tierney stood?  Almost certainly yes.
4)Should Burnley opening goal against Liverpool been overturned due to foul on keeper Alisson?  Tough call, but VAR probably should leave that one alone.
5) Was Hazard fouled in the box or just outside as referee called? VAR probably upholds call.
6) Was Aubameyang fouled in the box to give Arsenal and PK against Man United?  VAR probably upholds that one too.

I think there a few others that might have been reviewable but my notes are too cryptic to decipher.  Still a supporter of VAR but getting worried that it will be overused.  If one or two looks at full speed don't change your impression, let the call stand.  Definitely shouldn't be using slow motion either.  The point isn't to be perfect, it's to be better because it will never be perfect.


EPL Champions League Success

With Liverpool's 3-1 win over Bayern and Man City beating Schalke by a touchdown, the EPL now has four sides into the Champions League quarterfinals.  The news was not so good for Atletico, as they lost away to Juventus 0-3, completing Michael B's bad, awful week.  Barcelona struggled a little with Lyon before pulling away to a 5-1 win.  Fixtures for the quarters and semis will be drawn Friday morning, probably after this is published.  Not sure how meaningful odds provided before the draw are but Man City and Barcelona seem to be getting most of the love right now.


Another Fast Start

Not necessarily surprising but the Union fell to Sporting KC on the road 0-2.  The score is actually unflattering.  SKC got goals on a soft but correct PK on Trusty and an own goal off of Elliott.  Fabian missed a PK and we played the last 30 minutes down a man after Fabian was sent off on a straight red card.  In other words, we were mediocre, not awful, and a draw would not have been an unreasonable result.  The fullback play of Kai Wagner was a bright spot. Metrics at 538 say the Union had more good chances, leaving us with the question again of are we unlucky or ungood.  Some are already answering the latter but that might be too quick.

 Clearly the team is not fully adjusted to the new system.  We should be expecting more offensive pressure than we're seeing but we also know that more will be required of the center backs and the holding midfielder.  Medunjanin seemed to do better this time but Trusty struggled; the PK call was soft but he did foul the attacker because he wasn't back quickly enough.  Hoping we don't go 0-for-March but it could happen.


FA Cup Affected Schedule

FA Cup quarter finals are this weekend so the EPL schedule gets shortened.  As far as I can tell, you can only see the FA Cup matches on ESPN+; schedule is here.  I'm most interested in Wolves - Man United match; Wolverhampton have been very tough against top six teams.  Watford - Crystal Palace could be good too.  Man City should keep hopes for the quadruple (League Cup, FA Cup, EPL and Champions League) alive as they face Swansea City.  Millwall, at home, could give Brighton some trouble.

Meanwhile, back in the EPL, Newcastle travel to Bournemouth, possibly a little short-handed at center back with Schar suspended (yellow card accumulation) and Lascelles maybe still injured.  Not expecting a result here but a point would be awesome.  Burnley-Leicester is the NBCSN game at 11 am and West Ham - Huddersfield, like Newcastle will be on NBC Gold at 11.

Sunday has two more matches with Liverpool traveling to London to face Fulham (and likely moving back to the top of the table for the time being) while Chelsea face Everton at Goodison Park (the Blues can't afford to drop any points here).  Those games are on NBCSN at 10:15 and 12:30.

The Union's bad awful start isn't likely to improve with a road trip to Atlanta.  That's at 7 pm on Sunday.

Get ready for international break next week, which includes qualifying matches for the 2020 European Championship.

Reality Bites

Newcastle come down to earth and the new Union look a lot like the old Union.

Declan Rice  played a big role in WHU's defeat of Newcastle

West Ham made Newcastle look like a relegation candidate again.  The Magpies were flat and gave up two first half goals.  Almiron was invisible.  LeJeune had a poor game including a foul in the box.  Better second half but couldn't cut into the deficit. The 0-2 loss reminds us of the harsh reality that, though improved, there's still work to be done.  Adding injury to insult, Sean Longstaff left the match with some type of knee problem; turns out he's gone for the season.  Fortunately, we have Shelvey and Ki as replacements so this is not a total disaster.

Good stuff around the league.  The North London derby had all the snarl and talking points you could want.  I believe Arlo White called it "glorious chaos."  I thought referee Anthony Taylor was evenly lenient for most of the match, letting crunching tackles go uncarded until about 60 minutes, at which point he had to rein things in to avoid a riot.  The 1-1 draw, ignoring that Kane should have been flagged for offside as opposed to awarded a PK (more on that below), seemed like a fair result. We suspect Spurs fans were likely happier than Gunners supporters with the outcome.

While context and tension made the derby a good watch, free flowing, attacking football with quality goals made the Man United - Southampton match a pleasure to take in.  Despite knowing the final score, I watched it anyway to see exactly how Man United came away with the 3-2 win.  Felt like a good use of 90 minutes.  And to make Jeff H happy, we'll use Lukaku's game winner at 88 minutes for this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Sunday's Merseyside derby was a prime example of a thrilling 0-0 match.  Everton supporters likely the happier lot, with Liverpool dropping two more points and slipping behind Man City, who had held off a stubborn Bournemouth side for a 1-0 win on Saturday.  Fulham managed to score against Chelsea, something that notably Man City and Tottenham couldn't do, but the Blues still came away with the 2-1 win.


Projections and the Run-in

Michael and I are still debating about exactly when the run-in starts - last week in March or maybe first week in April.  It's close enough for me to break out the BFS Prediction Model, which uses the projected results for each match from 538.  For each match, they project the probability of A winning, B winning and the match ending in a draw.   Whereas 538 does their point projection based on the percentages, I force a winner or a draw for each match.  By way of example, they project a 57% chance that City will win the Manchester derby, with a 22% chance it ends in a draw and a 21% chance United win.  So their model gives City an expected 1.93 points out of the match and .85 for United.  I take the projection as saying City are favored to win so I give them all three points.  Probably more than you wanted to know...

Anyway, 538 has City winning the title by two points over Liverpool.  My approach says they both win out from here so Man City takes the title by one point.  They round out the top six with Tottenham, Chelsea, Man United and Arsenal.  My approach projects that Arsenal closes with nine straight wins to grab third from Spurs, with Chelsea and Man United fifth and sixth.  Man United definitely have a difficult set of fixtures ahead, including matches against Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea; away matches versus Wolves and Everton could be troublesome as well.  The 538 projected standings are available here.

Rooting around at the lower end of the table, we see Huddersfield, Fulham and Cardiff getting relegated.  My approach has Cardiff getting just one more point but that's probably too low.  They do have matches with Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man United but they also could easily grab some points from the likes of Brighton, Burnley, Fulham and Crystal Palace.  Even still, very unlikely they'll get much more than 30 points, which means Newcastle might already be safe.  I get the Magpies with 37 points in 15th while 538 shows them 14th with 41.  Home and dry either way but not exactly a stellar finish.  Like I said, still work to do before we can even call them a solid mid-table team.


Champions League

Some good results for EPL sides.  Tottenham, going into the second leg with a 3-0 lead, weathered early pressure from Dortmund, got an early goal from Kane in the second half and cruised into the quarter finals.  Michael B was so happy he bought me dinner at Earth Bread and Brewery.  Ajax completed the shredding of three time champion Real Madrid.  Don't hear too much whining about this, but then I don't know any RM fans.  Both Man United and Porto needed late PKs awarded with the aid of VAR (more below) to punch their tickets to the quarters.  Exciting stuff.


SOU (Same Old Union)

Okay, it's only the opening match but for a team with some important personnel changes and a new formation, this felt like old times.  We dominated play for the opening 30 minutes and was happy with the way Fabian and Ilsinho worked together.  But we got no goals and were opened up in stoppage time in the first half.  Toronto added another in the second and things looked hopeless.  A late PK gave us some hope but really we didn't challenge in the last 15 minutes and ended up giving up one more for a 1-3 final.  Live at the stadium, our impression was that Medunjanin might not be up to the task as the defensive midfielder in a diamond midfield.  Post game analysis seems to support that view.  Last year, he was one of two holding midfielders but might not be able to handle the job by himself.  Apparently in response, the Union have added Jamiro Monteiro on loan from a second division French team.

Announced attendance was 16,498.  Based on actual bodies in the stadium I believe that means Jeff and I were counted as 6.


This Week's U12 Moment

We're offering a choice of:

You can sort of see Blake's huge neck muffler 

1) Firmino's delayed entry into match for Liverpool against Everton because he left his jersey in the
lockerroom
2) Union keeper Andre Blake started match with neck muffler to stay warm (it was cold as Jeff K and I will attest) but after a scramble in front of his goal, an assistant coach ran down the line and yelled for him to take it off.



Talking Refereeing and VAR

2nd from top is not
out of play!

VAR, or lack thereof, was way too prevalent a topic this week.  Harry Kane was clearly, though narrowly, offside when he was fouled for a PK, which he converted to level the Tottenham - Arsenal match.  I didn't think Aubameyang was fouled in the box, though Lloris saved that PK.  I thought VAR would have overturned both PKs, though Graham thought the Aubameyang foul might have withstood review.  Also, we had claims from some that the foul on Kane occurred before the actual offside offense so the PK was correct.  I'll admit that deciding exactly when a player is challenging for the ball is subjective but he does not have to touch the ball for the offense to be flagged.  The PGMOL (Professional Game Match Officials LTD - the administrative body overseeing EPL officials) was quick to note that the play should have been flagged for offside.

I forget which match it was, probably Real Madrid - Ajax, when a team scored shortly after the ball looked like it might have been out of play.  Numerous replays to me were unclear but the announcers were making a big deal out of seeing grass between the ball and the touch line, as if this made it obvious that the ball was out of play.  Oy, not the determining factor.  It's the plane of the edge of the ball.  See the photo above - inbounds is to the left.  Only the ball on top is out of play.

The Union match was not a pretty sight from a refereeing perspective, not that it really affected the outcome.  Nima Saghafi spent much of the match running around with his finger in his ear, communicating with the VAR.  He took too long to make decisions - please use the 30 second guideline (Dennis says 15 seconds).  If it takes longer than that, it's not obvious.  Also, how was it not obvious that the ball struck Wagner in the chest, not even the shoulder?  Fortunately Blake saved that PK.

What to say about Man United advancing over PSG on a late hand ball call?  On the field it was signaled as a corner but VAR told the ref to review and after looking at the replay, he awarded a PK.  You can see the play here.  Not a handball for me, especially in a VAR situation, where the call on the field was no handling.  Opinion on the web is very much split.  Rule changes on handling are coming in June - we'll have more on that next week.

To end this section on a more positive note, Porto were the beneficiaries of a, IMHO, proper use of VAR.  In the closing stages of extra time, a Roma defender grabbed the back of a Porto attacker's jersey in the box.  The call on the field was goal kick but the ref got the signal from VAR to check it out.  Didn't take long to see the infraction and overturn the call.  PK converted and Porto move on. I suppose it's questionable whether the attacker would have reached the ball without the shirt pull but I have no problem with this use of VAR here.  Grab a jersey in the box, get a PK.  If VAR cuts down on that BS, I'm all for it.


Schedule

Most important match of the weekend is clearly Arsenal vs Man United at Sunday at 12:30.  A loss for either is a big blow to their Champions League chances.  The start time reminds me that we "spring forward" this Sunday while England waits a few more weeks.

Newcastle are on TV for the third consecutive match, a tough one at home to Everton (10 am Saturday on CNBC).  I'd be happy to see improved play and maybe grab a point.  The other Saturday 10 am TV game has Tottenham traveling to Southampton.  A Spurs win would also benefit Newcastle.  Just sayin'.

First and second probably doesn't change this week as Man City host Watford (NBC feature match on Saturday at 12:30) while Liverpool host Burnley (Sunday at 8 am on NBCSN).  I suppose Watford pose a bit of a challenge but still would expect City to see them off.  Chelsea have a tricky match on Sunday against Wolves; woe to the team that takes these guys lightly.

The weekend starts with Crystal Palace - Brighton from Selhurst Park at 7:30 Saturday morning.  Both are probably safe anyway but one will be safer with a win.

Sunday also see the Union taking on Sporting KC at 3 pm.  A road match, we have every reason to think the Union will start the season with two losses.  Wait, Atlanta comes to town next week so make that three losses.

Don't forget midweek Champions League action.  On Tuesday we have Man City (up 3-2 from the first leg) hosting Schalke and Atletico heading to Juventus carrying a two goal lead.  Wednesday has two matches where the first legs were 0-0 draws - Liverpool travel to face Bayern while Barcelona are home to Lyon.  All matches are 4 pm (Europe not springing forward yet).  One match each day will be on TNT.

That should hold you until the weather warms up.

"Magpies Are Flying Again"

With home wins over Huddersfield and Burnley, Newcastle are assured of at least another two weeks clear of the relegation zone.  If the past is any indicator, they are probably within a couple of wins of avoiding a drop for the second consecutive year.  Not necessarily scintillating or high quality action but the Magpies kept two clean sheets and showed some offensive spark.

No Miguel, we applaud you

Things didn't start out great with Huddersfield; the Terriers probably had the run of play for 15-20 minutes.  Newcastle got a big break when Tommie Smith earned a straight red with a high booted challenge.  A man up, the chances started to fall the way of the Magpies but they were denied a few times by the post or the keeper.  Thinking as the whistle blew on a 0-0 half that this was going to be totally unacceptable; anything less than three points would be a loss.  Fortunately Rondon and Perez scored goals in the opening minutes of the second half and the match was never in doubt from that point on.  No goals or assists from Almiron but he clearly sparked the offense with speed down the wing, insightful passes and some flair.

Tuesday was expected to be much tougher against an in-form Burnley, who hadn't lost since 2018.  The Magpies took charge of this one, looking much more dangerous from the start.  The opening goal though came on an unexpected rocket from Fabian Schar.  Pretty much placed in the only spot that could beat keeper Heaton, it is easily this week's
YouTubeableMoment.   A second from Sean Longstaff at 38 minutes gave Newcastle some cushion. The lads did surrender a few good chances but managed to keep another clean sheet.  The reviews for Almiron were carbon copies of Saturday; Newcastle are simply more dangerous with him in the line up.

So we shoot all the way up to 13th in the table.  We are closer to ninth place than 18th.  It hasn't taken more than 40 points to stay up since 2002/03.  At 31 points, we're probably three to seven points from safety.  Our goal differential is also better than most of the relegation candidates, which is essentially worth another point.  On the other hand, reviewing the final ten matches doesn't yield too many obvious wins.  The most likely win - home to Fulham - is unfortunately on the final day of the season, leaving me with the queasy feeling that things might not be wrapped up until then.  Would hope they take some points at home vs Crystal Palace and Southampton. Maybe something from Everton.  Just shows how critical these six points were.

Is There A Doctor in the House?

The marquee Man United -Liverpool match was plagued with a rash of injuries.  United had to use all three subs by halftime due to injuries.  First Herrera went down.  Then Mata was out, replaced with a less than fully healed Lingard, who himself went down at 43 minutes.  And the whole time, Rashford was looking like he might pull up lame at any point.  Liverpool lost Firmino at 31 minutes as well.  Not all that surprising when the match ended 0-0.  Man United were probably the happier side about that.

Crystal Palace sealed Claude Puel’s fate with a 4-1 thumping of Leicester (at King Power no less).  Frankly, Leicester had the run of play but the Eagles “smash and grab” style put more balls in the net.  Puel was sacked a few days later, to be replaced by Brendan Rodgers.  Fulham continued its habit of scoring first but still losing as they fell 1-3 to West Ham. 

Spurs stumbled at Turf Moor, falling 1-2 to Burnley.  Unexpected but note that Burnley (before losing to Newcastle on Tuesday) had been undefeated in 2019.  Arsenal continued to insinuate themselves into the Champions League fight with a win over Southampton.  Several teams were off due to the League Cup Final on Sunday so the schedule was a little light.

League Cup

I will say the line ups were pretty honest given that both sides had midweek matches.  However, the quality of play suggests maybe their heads were elsewhere.  Over the course of the 120+ minutes of the weak 0-0 draw, Chelsea managed exactly 0 shots on target.  City only had three.  Seemed like everything was a)wide, b) high, or c) wide and high.  City eventually prevailed in kicks from the spot.  Whatever.  A final worthy of the status of this competition.  It is totally superfluous to the FA Cup.

But the contest was not totally devoid of interest.  Late in the second period of extra time, Chelsea keeper Arrivabeluaga  Arizobloga Kepa seemed to be suffering from leg cramps.  With kicks from the spot looming, Sarri moved quickly to get Willy Caballero into the match.  Given Cabellaro's  performance a few years ago in a League Cup shoot out, this seemed like a doubly good move.  But Kepa refused to come off.  You can watch the whole incredible scene here.  Stunning to watch.  See how Sarri nearly storms out?  Later of course, everybody says its just a misunderstanding.  Right. Epilog: Kepa did stop one shot but also let a soft one in. Epilog Part II: Kepa fined a week's pay and earned a seat on the bench for the Tottenham match.

Champions League Races Tighten

The main story out of the mid-week matches is how close league title race is and how tight the competition for the Champions League spots has become.  Liverpool and Man City got their wins and sit 1-2 with 69 and 68 points respectively.  Tottenham did not bounce back from the Burnley defeat and frankly looked at bit at sea in an 0-2 loss to Chelsea.  Team politics aside, Sarri's team has consecutive clean sheets against Man City and Tottenham.  Man United and Arsenal got their wins as well.  The weekend starts with Tottenham at 60, Arsenal 56, Man United 55 and Chelsea 53.


MLS Season Opens

Fabian key to the Union season?
Photo by Marcelo Endelli/Getty Images

I'll be at Talen Energy Saturday afternoon as the Union open their 10th season hosting Toronto FC.  Reasons to be upbeat include the possibility that new additions Fabian, Santos, Wagner and Mbaizo make this a better squad.  The Union will ditch the 4-2-3-1 for a 4-4-2 diamond (one attacking midfielder, one defensive midfielder) which should create more scoring chances.  It may soften the defending a little but maybe this makes Blake's shot stopping ability more valuable.  I mean what's the value of him making 3-4 great saves a match if we keep losing 0-1?  Maybe with a more attacking formation those become 2-1 wins?  Reasons to be circumspect include the possibility that new additions Fabian, Santos, Wagner and Mbaizo wash out or that it takes time for them to play as a team or it takes the team time to adjust to the new system.  The MLS staff posted a season preview here, suggesting collectively that the Union will finish 4th.  Color me tickled if that pans out.

Because inquiring minds want to know, I compiled the season predictions for each of the six MLS writers.  Their collective wisdom is presented below. 

	Ben	Calen	Charlie	Matt	Bobby	Andrew	Average
	Baer	Carr	Davis	Doyle	Warshaw	Wiebe	Ranking
Atlanta	1	2	1	2	1	1	1.33
Red Bulls	3	1	2	1	3	2	2.00
DC United	5	4	4	3	2	3	3.50
Philadelphia	4	3	3	5	4	7	4.33
Columbus	2	5	8	7	7	6	5.83
NYCFC	7	6	7	8	8	5	6.83
Toronto	6	8	5	9	6	9	7.17
Montreal	10	9	10	4	9	4	7.67
Chicago	8	10	11	6	5	8	8.00
New England	11	11	6	10	12	10	10.00
Orlando	9	12	9	12	11	11	10.67
Cincinnati	12	7	12	11	10	12	10.67

Frequently consensus within a place or two but also some outliers.  What does Charlie Davis see in New England that no one else does?  Similar, is Calen Carr possessing info about Cincinnati not available to others?  And as a group they are all over the map on Montreal.  So apparently Atlanta is so good they can afford to lose Almiron and not miss a beat?  They did replace him with South American player of the year Pity Martinez.

Derby Derby

Things start bright and early Saturday morning with a 7:30 London derby with Spurs hosting Arsenal.  Big six pointer for Champions League position.  Arsenal are in much better form right now.

Third straight TV game for Newcastle as they travel to face West Ham in the featured 12:30 match (on NBCSN not NBC this week).  Looking for a good match there but realistically, a draw would be awesome.  Saturday 10 am has two TV games – both Manchester clubs (there’s a surprise).  City are at Bournemouth (CNBC) while United are home to Southampton (NBCSN).  Probably another six points total for collective Manchester.

Sunday offers another three TV games.  Getting up at 7 doesn’t sound like fun but Watford - Leicester might be worth it.  Fulham hosting Chelsea at 9 maybe not so much.  Then Sunday wraps up with a Merseyside derby, this time at Goodison Park; Everton have been erratic of late so Liverpool likely favored.  All three matches are on NBCSN.

With three inches of new snow and forecast rain overnight, the pitch at Talen Energy should be perfect for the opener.  The "good" news is that the forecast says just cloudy and 38 degrees at kickoff.  Regardless, BFS will be there so you don't have to.