The news out of Group B could be simply that Spain and Portugal advanced. That would be kind of like simply saying the 1978 Yankees won the AL East. Uh, it kind of misses the story. The six matches included three 1-0 results and three draws. There were three stoppage time goals and another in the 88th minute. The Spain-Portugal 3-3 draw might be the match of the tournament so far. On the final day of Group B action, when Iran got a stoppage time goal to even the match with Portugal, Spain were just one more Iranian or Moroccan goal away from elimination. Granted both matches were nearly over but that does show you how close things were. Spain scored a stoppage time goal of their own to remove the danger, leaving us with the original story line of Spain and Portugal advancing.
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| Marcus Rojo gives Messi a piggy back ride after Rojo's late goal sends Argentina to the knockout round |
Senegal - Colombia offered drama if not quality. A 74th minute goal was enough for Colombia to nick a 1-0 win, leaving Senegal out in the cold because of the tiebreaking procedure, discussed below. There were some turkeys in the bunch (looking at you France Denmark). England Belgium featured heavily rotated squads in a less than stirring 1-0 win for the Red Devils. I guess every match can't be a thriller.
Fair Play Tiebreaker
As we noted last time, the final tiebreaker before drawing lots is the Fair Play statistics - the number of yellow and red cards. It did come into play when Japan and Senegal each finished with four points a goal differential of zero, four goals scored and a 2-2 draw in head-to-head play. Japan had four yellows to Senegal's six, so the Japanese advance. The use of Fair Play stats as a tiebreaker is drawing positive reviews but did elicit a "harrumph" from Bob K, who saw his third straight favorite side (after Costa Rica and Peru) fail to make it to the knockout round. Why not other metrics he asks?
I didn't find a specific answer to that question but my speculation is that the only items tracked on the field by the referee are goals, yellow cards and red cards. Henry Bushnell at Yahoo Sports offers a quick look at the alternatives. He'd prefer PKs but there are admittedly logistical issues here if the two teams that have tied don't play each other in the final group stage match; you'd have to schedule a day for them to meet before the knockout round match. Also, how would this work if three teams tied? Certainly there are issues with the Fair Play stats. Though the Laws of the Game direct referees to show the yellow card for "reckless" fouls and red for those involving "excessive force," a quick look at referee stats tells us that referees have differing thresholds as to what these mean. But if a team's chances of advancing are reduced because they incur more cards for fouling, delay, dissent and unsporting behavior, I'm not convinced this is a bad thing.
Stoppage Time
Speaking of trying to reign in the less attractive behavior, I was struck by something in this analysis that BFS co-founder and Director of Operations Research Dennis F forwarded to me. If I have the math right, it looks like stoppage time played for those 32 matches was about 53% of actual time lost. So time wasting tactics (e.g., rolling on the ground grabbing the body part that wasn't even involved in the collision, resetting the ball five times before taking a goal kick, "jogging" off the field at a pace that's actually slower than a walk, etc.) do pay off. Big time. If the powers that be really want to address those behaviors, referees are going to have to make stoppage time closer to the actual time lost to these shenanigans.
The Women of 6911
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| Carlos Vela - Kathy S is still waiting for your call |
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| Ivan Rakitic - Vanilla frosting not impressing the judges |
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| Aliou Cisse - Senegalese manager a judges' favorite |
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| Guillermo Ochoa - Early leader in voting for best hair |
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| Roman Torres - Chances for winning best hair severely compromised because few watched any of Panama's games |
World Cup Vocabulary
mis·cre·ant
ˈmiskrēənt/
noun
- 1.a person who behaves badly or in a way that breaks the law.
synonyms: criminal, culprit, wrongdoer, malefactor, offender, villain, lawbreaker, evildoer, delinquent, hoodlum, reprobate;
malfeasant"the South Street playground has been taken over by a pack of drug-dealing miscreants"
I believe it was Derek Rae who applied the term to a player about to receive a yellow card.
Quote of the Week
Michael B: I'm starting to realize the World Cup will end. It's starting to depress me
Steve: By then it will be time to catch up on EPL transfer news.
Michael B: I feel better already.
First Knockout Round
The tournament is taking on a bit of an FA Cup feel to it in that some Cinderella teams had some early success but when we get down to the smaller numbers, it looks like the same old big boys. Other than maybe Mexico and Japan, are there really any surprises in the final 16? There are 10 European teams, four South Americans squads, a Central American team and an Asian side. The final eight could easily be seven European teams and Brazil. You can run your own scenarios here courtesy of 538. Not that the matches won't be exciting, it's just that maybe some diversity would be fun.
Saturday has two must-see matches - France v Argentina at 10 and Uruguay v Portugal at 2. Sunday may not be quite as exciting with Spain taking on Russia at 10 and Croatia facing Denmark; on paper the latter looks like the more competitive contest. Monday features the fascinating Brazil-Mexico matchup at 10 followed by Belgium-Japan at 2. Now we'll see how Belgium fare with a bit more pressure. The round of 16 concludes with what look like two really competitive matchups - Sweden vs Switzerland at 10 and Colombia vs England at 2. Hopefully the group stage viewing has toughened us up and a light schedule of two matches per day will seem like a walk in the park.
DVR tip: Don't forget that all matches from here on out must have a winner so you need to extend the recording at least 60 minutes (90 to be safe).
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