Millions of words have already been spilled on the event and millions more will follow. I'll add a few thousand to the pile in our usual random way.
Immersion
The group stage of the WC has to be the most intense period of soccer. After the solo match on Thursday, there are three or four matches every day for two weeks - 48 matches in total over 15 days. For those keeping score at home, that's 72 hours of soccer. With this being my first WC since leaving full time work, I had some thoughts about how much I could watch. Even I may be forced to pick and choose a little, though I do plan to dvr each match. For those of you with less discretionary time, I have identified my pick for the most important match for each day through the first two matches of the group stage.
6/14 Russia vs Saudi Arabia (11 am Fox) - Because it's the only game on
6/15 Portugal vs Spain (2 pm Fox) - Two powerhouses meet early, a loss would mean no more room for error
6/16 Peru vs Denmark (Noon FS1) - With France likely to win this group, these two will battle for the second spot; those following Iceland should know they face Argentina (9 am Fox)
6/17 Germany vs Mexico (11 am FS1) - Both likely to make it out of the group but second place probably gets Brazil in first knockout match so a win here is important
6/18 Tunisia vs England (2 pm FS1) - Will England make this harder than it needs to be?
6/19 Poland vs Senegal (11 am Fox) - If there's going to be an upset in this group, this might be it
6/20 Portugal vs Morocco (8 am FS1) - See Poland-Senegal
6/21 France vs Peru (11 am Fox) - If Peru lost to Denmark they'll need a result here; Argentina vs Croatia (2 pm Fox) is a worthy too
6/22 Serbia vs Switzerland (2 pm Fox) - Could determine who gets second in Group E; those following Iceland should know they take on Nigeria (11 am Fox)
6/23 - Germany vs Sweden (2 pm Fox) - Probably more competitive than Belgium - Tunisia or Korea - Mexico
6/24 - Poland vs Colombia (2 pm Fox) - Arguably the two favorites from Group H but a loss here could leave one vulnerable
We'll review the final matches in group stage later as early results could lead to some surprises as to the key contests at that point.
If you have a favorite you want to follow, the schedule can be viewed here.
Playing the Part of the US
Iceland, darlings of the last European Championships, are not likely to make as a big splash at the World Cup. Getting out of the group stage will be difficult but certainly not impossible. Sound familiar? Yep, just like the US. Except for the population difference of 326,766,748. And the volcanoes.
With the US absence, you may be thrashing about looking for a team to get behind. Well here's a handy World Cup Quiz prepared by the nice people at 538 you can use to pick another nation tailored to your own tastes. Do you like offense or defense? A team led by a star? Answer a series a questions about your preferences in soccer teams, and they'll give you a recommendation.
Or you can use the Mackenzie Warren method, which ranks teams based on the degree to which the country was/is an imperial power. Ties are broken by the ethnic diversity of the squads. Makes it tough for those of us with a taste for European sides; even Iceland had the Vikings. But hey, back in the day, Egypt used to flex its muscles so maybe we need some sort of statute of limitations on this colonialism thing or we'll be left rooting for everybody's favorite penal colony, Australia.
Also courtesy of Mackenzie, we offer this four minute guide from noted blogger John Green.
For the record, we are partial to Belgium, England and Iceland. Wouldn't mind seeing Peru get to the knockout stage.
Also courtesy of Mackenzie, we offer this four minute guide from noted blogger John Green.
For the record, we are partial to Belgium, England and Iceland. Wouldn't mind seeing Peru get to the knockout stage.
The Competition
Again, many words already written. You can see the FIFA rankings here which suggest Germany and Brazil are the clear favorites. The thing is, while the FIFA rankings aren't awful at separating good teams from bad teams, they don't do a great job at the subtler differences. This is because of how much emphasis they place on the results of friendlies. Poland was able to get itself a nice FIFA ranking simply by not playing much.
I'd be inclined to put more weight on these rankings, which don't weigh the friendlies as heavily. Sure, it's Brazil and Germany again but by nowhere near the same margin and more countries are close to the top, with Spain, France and Argentina looking like legitimate contenders.
As usual, the quality of each of the eight groups varies widely. From top to bottom, based on either the FIFA or ELO rankings, Group E - Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia and Costa Rica - could stake a claim to the label "Group of Death." By any measure, Group A - Uruguay, Egypt, Russia and Saudi Arabia - is one of the weakest in WC history - the Group of Candyland?
But average ranking of the group doesn't necessarily translate to competitiveness. If the groups were perfectly seeded and form held throughout, the knockout rounds would consist of the top 16 ranked teams. Seeding each team by their ELO ranking, is there a group which has more than two top 16 teams? That would be C, with France, Peru, and Denmark. One of those very good teams is not advancing out of the group stage. I feel a little bad for Mexico and Sweden since only one of them will advance out of Group F, barring complete collapse by Germany. Looking at it this way, Group G might really be the easiest, with England(7) and Belgium(8) paired with Panama (29) and Tunisia (30). And our Group of Candyland has the 28th (Russia), 31st (Egypt) and 32nd (Saudi Arabia) seeded teams so its own way, that group could be quite competitive.
I think I'll stop here. We'll be back at various points in the competition, probably to point out important stuff like the best hair in the tournament or maybe talk about some of the more interesting developments. Enjoy.
Addendum: I don't think these 538 predictions were out when I published yesterday.
Using your weighted rankings, Peru is ranked #10 in the world ... which makes them only #4 in South America. Can't we get them a new continent for 2022 ?
ReplyDelete