To the Knockout Rounds

The final matches of the group stage provided a few moments of drama but usually came up a little short on the quality.  To paraphrase Alexi Lalas, none of these eight matches will end up in a time capsule to document for future generations how good this sport was.

The news out of Group B could be simply that Spain and Portugal advanced.  That would be kind of like simply saying the 1978 Yankees won the AL East.  Uh, it kind of misses the story.  The six matches included three 1-0 results and three draws.  There were three stoppage time goals and another in the 88th minute.  The Spain-Portugal 3-3 draw might be the match of the tournament so far.  On the final day of Group B action, when Iran got a stoppage time goal to even the match with Portugal, Spain were just one more Iranian or Moroccan goal away from elimination.  Granted both matches were nearly over but that does show you how close things were.  Spain scored a stoppage time goal of their own to remove the danger, leaving us with the original story line of Spain and Portugal advancing.

Marcus Rojo gives Messi a piggy back ride after Rojo's late
 goal sends Argentina to the knockout round

Argentina were minutes away from elimination until Man United's Marcus Rojo slotted home the game winner in the 86th minute.  Can't say Argentina looked all that great beating Nigeria 2-1 but it was dramatic stuff.  Germany were not so lucky.  Needing a win over South Korea, the match dragged on at 0-0 until the Germans allowed two goals in stoppage time.  Korea seemed happy enough but the real winner from that result was Mexico, who were at risk of not advancing after an 0-3 loss to Sweden.

Senegal - Colombia offered drama if not quality.  A 74th minute goal was enough for Colombia to nick a 1-0 win, leaving Senegal out in the cold because of the tiebreaking procedure, discussed below.  There were some turkeys in the bunch (looking at you France Denmark).  England Belgium featured heavily rotated squads in a less than stirring 1-0 win for the Red Devils.   I guess every match can't be a thriller.

   
Fair Play Tiebreaker

As we noted last time, the final tiebreaker before drawing lots is the Fair Play statistics - the number of yellow and red cards.  It did come into play when Japan and Senegal each finished with four points  a goal differential of zero, four goals scored and a 2-2 draw in head-to-head play.  Japan had four yellows to Senegal's six, so the Japanese advance.  The use of Fair Play stats as a tiebreaker is drawing positive reviews but did elicit a "harrumph" from Bob K, who saw his third straight favorite side (after Costa Rica and Peru) fail to make it to the knockout round. Why not other metrics he asks?

I didn't find a specific answer to that question but my speculation is that the only items tracked on the field by the referee are goals, yellow cards and red cards.  Henry Bushnell at Yahoo Sports offers a quick look at the alternatives.  He'd prefer PKs but there are admittedly logistical issues here if the two teams that have tied don't play each other in the final group stage match; you'd have to schedule a day for them to meet before the knockout round match.  Also, how would this work if three teams tied?  Certainly there are issues with the Fair Play stats.  Though the Laws of the Game direct referees to show the yellow card for "reckless" fouls and red for those involving "excessive force," a quick look at referee stats tells us that referees have differing thresholds as to what these mean. But if a team's chances of advancing are reduced because they incur more cards for fouling, delay, dissent and unsporting behavior, I'm not convinced this is a bad thing.


Stoppage Time

Speaking of trying to reign in the less attractive behavior, I was struck by something in this analysis that BFS co-founder and Director of Operations Research Dennis F forwarded to me.  If I have the math right, it looks like stoppage time played for those 32 matches was about 53% of actual time lost.  So time wasting tactics (e.g., rolling on the ground grabbing the body part that wasn't even involved in the collision, resetting the ball five times before taking a goal kick, "jogging" off the field at a pace that's actually slower than a walk, etc.) do pay off.  Big time.  If the powers that be really want to address those behaviors, referees are going to have to make stoppage time closer to the actual time lost to these shenanigans.


The Women of 6911

Carlos Vela - Kathy S is still waiting for
your call

Ivan Rakitic - Vanilla frosting not
impressing the judges

As expected, their return from traveling has added depth to the commentary here at BFS Viewing Central.  Comments on hair and overall appearance are flowing.  Examples provided herewith.

Aliou Cisse - Senegalese manager a judges' favorite

Guillermo Ochoa - Early leader in
voting for best hair

 Roman Torres - Chances for winning best hair severely
compromised because few watched any of Panama's games 

However, as usual, I must point out that these are not just pretty faces looking for other pretty faces. They know their soccer.  Best example was Mackenzie suggesting that maybe the problem with Argentina is not a subpar Messi but rather a supporting cast that may not be good enough to get them deep into the tournament.  They have dodged a bullet in that they didn't crash out in the group stage but the jury is still out on their longer term prospects.  We look forward to continued analysis from the Women of 6911.


World Cup Vocabulary

mis·cre·ant

ˈmiskrēənt/

noun

1. 1.

   a person who behaves badly or in a way that breaks the law.

   synonyms:

   criminal, culprit, wrongdoer, malefactor, offender, villain, lawbreaker, evildoer, delinquent, hoodlum, reprobate; malfeasant "the South Street playground has been taken over by a pack of drug-dealing miscreants"

I believe it was Derek Rae who applied the term to a player about to receive a yellow card.


Quote of the Week

Michael B: I'm starting to realize the World Cup will end. It's starting to depress me
Steve: By then it will be time to catch up on EPL transfer news.
Michael B: I feel better already.


First Knockout Round

The tournament is taking on a bit of an FA Cup feel to it in that some Cinderella teams had some early success but when we get down to the smaller numbers, it looks like the same old big boys.  Other than maybe Mexico and Japan, are there really any surprises in the final 16?  There are 10 European teams, four South Americans squads, a Central American team and an Asian side.  The final eight could easily be seven European teams and Brazil. You can run your own scenarios here courtesy of 538.  Not that the matches won't be exciting, it's just that maybe some diversity would be fun.

Saturday has two must-see matches - France v Argentina at 10 and Uruguay v Portugal at 2.  Sunday may not be quite as exciting with Spain taking on Russia at 10 and Croatia facing Denmark; on paper the latter looks like the more competitive contest.  Monday features the fascinating Brazil-Mexico matchup at 10 followed by Belgium-Japan at 2.  Now we'll see how Belgium fare with a bit more pressure.  The round of 16 concludes with what look like two really competitive matchups - Sweden vs Switzerland at 10 and Colombia vs England at 2.  Hopefully the group stage viewing has toughened us up and a light schedule of two matches per day will seem like a walk in the park.

DVR tip:  Don't forget that all matches from here on out must have a winner so you need to extend the recording at least 60 minutes (90 to be safe).

Final Group Stage Match Viewing Guide

Who says you have to choose one match or the other?

After 11 days of absolutely no overlap in any of the matches, we now may be faced with some hard choices about what to watch.  That's because the final matches for each group are played simultaneously.  Why?  If matches are not at the same time, teams playing later may know exactly what result would allow both to advance.   But surely pride, etc., etc., would keep teams from doing this.  Except maybe not; I give you Germany and Austria in 1982.

 In some cases the choices won't be too difficult but not always.  And, of course, there's always the Michael B dual screen technology approach, demonstrated in the photo at left.  If that's not an option, we offer our opinion on each group stage finale below.


Group A: Uruguay-Russia Monday at 10 am on Fox

Caceres (right): How the cool players wear their shorts

Pretty straightforward.  Russia and Uruguay play for first and second in the group while Egypt and Saudi Arabia play for bragging rights to the Gulf of Aqaba.  Russia have the better goal differential so a win or a draw will give them first.  Since the Group A opponents in the first round of the knockout stage will likely be Spain and Portugal, not necessarily a big deal what the order is here.

And what is up with Martin Caceres and his pants? He played the whole second half with the left leg of his shorts tucked up to the upper thigh.


Group B: Iran-Portugal Monday at 2 pm on Fox

Iran gave Spain fits while playing what looked like a 6-3-1; they are still alive despite the 0-1 loss. Iran would advance with a win and possibly with a high scoring draw if Spain lose to Morocco.  Portugal only need a draw but didn't exactly overwhelm Morocco.   Spain do need to get at least a draw against Morocco (who cannot advance) to be sure of advancing but we're going to guess that the Iran-Portugal affair will offer the more compelling viewing.


Group C: Denmark-France Tuesday at 10 am on Fox

France are in after the 1-0 win over Peru, a side that we are sorry to say will not be advancing.  They played attractive football but after two 0-1 losses, they are eliminated.  Denmark need a draw to be sure of advancing.  Australia could nick the second spot with a win over Peru and a Danish loss and some tiebreaking luck.  Almost tempted to say watch Peru take on Australia just to see them play one more time but Denmark-France is probably more relevant to the tournament.


Who do you think looks more like Peru manager Ricardo Gareca (right) - Steven Tyler (left) or Iggy Pop (below)?

Group D: Nigeria-Argentina Tuesday at 2 pm on Fox

Really tough in this group because Croatia are already in but any of the other three could grab the second spot.  Argentina were looking totally out of it after the 0-3 loss to Croatia until Nigeria put a 2-0 hurting on Iceland.  (There has been no shortage of quality goals but Ahmed Musa's first touch and subsequent finish for Nigeria gets our nod for the YouTubeableMoment.)  Nigeria definitely advance with a win and possibly with a draw depending on the Iceland Croatia result.  Argentina must win and hope that Iceland doesn't win (or that the Argentine margin of victory is at least one goal more than Iceland's).  Iceland's requirements are basically the same - win and hope that Argentina lose or that its margin of victory is the same or better than Argentina's.  Got it?  Okay repeat it back to me.  At 538, they're saying that Argentina has a 54% chance of winning while Croatia is at 58%.  Potential wildcard: will Croatia, knowing they are advancing, rest key players?  Ah hell, figure out a way to watch them both.


Group E:  Serbia-Brazil Wednesday at 2 pm on Fox

Not as convoluted as Group D though there are multiple scenarios here too.  But the group is really Brazil's and Switzerland's to lose.  Serbia went from the driver's seat to needing some help after Switzerland rallied from 0-1 to snatch a 2-1 win.  Brazil took its sweet time but eventually vanquished Costa Rica 2-0.  Serbia could still advance but must beat Brazil, or get a draw in combination with a Swiss loss to Costa Rica (who are out) with tiebreaker stuff going their way too.  Brazil and Switzerland are in with wins or draws.  That looks highly likely, at least according to 538, so we'll go with the Serbia-Brazil match as both have something to play for.

So far VAR has mostly been adding goals rather than taking them away; well, it would have been adding goals if people could make the effing PK (looking at you Gylfi Sigurdsson).  On Friday a chance finally got taken away.  Neymar made a meal of contact in the box and referee Bjorn Kuipers whistled for the foul.  Fortunately it is automatically checked and the Kuipers was off to the sideline monitor to see for himself that there was indeed no foul.  Nearly 32 matches into the tournament and overall the refereeing and especially the VARing has been quite good.  A few missed American football tackles in the box on Kane and Mitrovic, an occasional foul in the box not called, but overall not bad.


Group F: Mexico-Sweden Wednesday at 10 am on Fox

Well I had already decided on the YouTubeableMoment before Toni Kroos saved Germany's ass with an incredible last second goal to beat Sweden 2-1.  Here's a fan's eye view of the goal.  Everything changed with that goal.  Mexico are not automatically in despite their wins over Korea and Germany.  Sweden and Germany are tied with three points.  If they both win on Wednesday, all three teams will have six points. So the tiebreakers could easily come into play.

Quick aside to fans of Sweden and Mexico.  What word begins with "f" and ends with "ck?" Freekick. 


Group G: England-Belgium Thursday at 2 pm on Fox

Writing before Sunday's matches, I'm going to say that regardless of the England-Panama result Sunday morning, the match to check out on Thursday is England-Belgium.  It's possible both teams will already know they are advancing but it could still be a fun match.  Belgium certainly have had no trouble scoring but Panama and Tunisia weren't necessarily the stoutest of opponents.


Group H: Winner of Sunday's Poland-Colombia match vs whoever their opponent is Thursday at 10 am

Again, writing before Sunday's Group H matches so I don't have the standings heading into the final stage.  The loser of Poland-Colombia is in a world of hurt but surprisingly not necessarily eliminated, unless Japan-Senegal draw. 


Tiebreakers

So what are these tiebreakers we speak of.  Details are here.  Basically it's goal differential, then goals scored.  After that it goes to head-to-head stuff - results, goal differentials and goals scored.  Then it gets into sportsmanship stuff with a point system for cards (-1 for yellow, -3 for red as a result of two yellows, -4 for straight red and -5 for yellow with a straight red).  Not inconceivable it could get that far.  If two teams are tied on points and tied in their head-to-head match, this would come into play.  In the unlikely event things are still tied, next is the amount of dirt Putin has on each country's leader.  Last would be the drawing of lots by FIFA. One of those last two statements is true.


World Cup Vocabulary

Not as good as "diaspora" but an announcer did cite a free kick as having "insufficient guile."  At least the shot was on frame.  Definitely not referring to Kroos.


Quote of the Week

Steve:  Is it just me or is the really the best World Cup ever?
Bob K: Nah, it's just that our lives are getting more boring.


Au Revoir Le Toux

After 10 straight days filled with World Cup matches, I wasn't necessarily chomping at the bit to end down to Talen Energy Stadium to see the Union take on Vancouver.  But think of it this way - if your kid had a soccer match during the World Cup, you would still go knowing full well it would be a step or four below international competition.  Kind of the same thing for the Union.  It's my local team, I'll support it knowing full well it's not the same as World Cup or even any European league.

Turned out to be a most pleasant trip. The Union thoroughly dominated play; at one point they had 15 shots while the Whitecaps hadn't registered any.  The 4-0 final score is flattering to Vancouver.  Frankly, they were awful, giving the ball away with shockingly poor passing.  The Union were slow to take advantage and didn't really put the match away until after 70 minutes but the result was never in doubt.  Don't look now but the Union are now in 6th, at least for the moment.  Two goals from Dockal were helpful.

LeToux acknowledges the fans (USA Today Images)

Aside from the result, at halftime  the Union inducted Sebastien Le Toux as the first member of the Union Ring of Honor.  They played a nice video, reminding us of Seb's incredible work rate and scoring touch and LeToux made a brief speech thanking the fans for how they accepted him.   I was glad I was there to applaud the guy who was the heart of the team while he was here.   As Graham noted, who wouldn't want to have 11 guys like that on your team.




I don't care what Bob says, I think so far it's the best World Cup evah.

Persians and Slavs and Swedes - Oh My

And Mexicans.  And Japanese. [Update: And Senegalese.]

After the first set of group stage matches, Iran (1-0 winners over Morocco on a late own goal) tops Group B, Croatia (beat Nigeria) and Serbia (beat Costa Rica) lead Groups D and E respectively, while Mexico (upset Germany) and Sweden (narrow win over Korea) share first place in Group F.  And now Japan is tops in Group H after upsetting a short-handed Colombia. [Update; Senegal are tied for the Group H lead after their upset of Poland.]  Just as everybody predicted.

I can't say if it's because I've had more time to follow the tournament but it sure seems like a lively and compelling start to a World Cup Final.  Actually, things got crazy even before the first kick-off, as Spain sacked their manager Julen Lopetegui; he agreed to take the Real Madrid position after the World Cup but the Spanish federation was ticked about not being notified until the deal was done.  Alrighty then, I guess we'll see how much difference a manager can make.

You can get all the scores and stuff from any number of sources so once again, BFS will delve into the random but important things you might have missed.  But seriously, this has been some awesome football so far.


Rude Host

Add your own humorous caption

Russia showed no compunction in running up the score against Saudi Arabia in the tournament's opening match.  They took the lead at 12 minutes, had a two goal lead at half time and added two stoppage time goals to bring the final count to 5-0.  We were treated to numerous shots of Putin sitting with SA Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman.  Pretty sure the picture at left is after Russia scored the first goal.  Turns out it spawned a cottage industry, explained here, of coming up with funny lines that the two world leaders might have been sharing.


The Goal Heard Round the World (Fake News)

Or at least by seismologists in Mexico.  Possibly the best match so far was Mexico's 1-0 upset of reigning champion Germany.  When Lozano scored the lone goal of the match in the 35th minute, initial reports claimed that seismologists in Mexico were able to detect a spike in activity.  Further research indicated that this was not the case.  But it made for such a great story, which you can read about here.  I can say that it is totally true that in 2014 when the US scored against Portugal, the reaction of the 10 or so people watching at 6911 was enough to knock the cable out for a few seconds.



Step Away from the Fainting Couch

Despite trepidation in some parts and outright hysteria in others, VAR has worked just about to perfection so far.  Delays are minimal and the end result is a correct call.  My recollection is that English referees were nowhere near as smooth with the VAR when it was used in FA Cup matches.  Perhaps this is why there are no English refs at the World Cup.

There really hasn't been too much to complain about from the officiating stand point.  My biggest issue so far has been the treatment of Neymar in Brazil's 1-1 draw with Switzerland.  I'm certainly not his biggest fan and sometimes he can make a meal of the slightest contact.  But he was fouled at least 10 times in that match.  In that situation, the referee has to warn the opposition that persistent fouling of a particular individual will result in a yellow.  I don't think he did that and the Swiss continued to hack away.


Chester Blues Honor Roll

Goal line technology reveals how close Pogba's goal was

So far no current Chester players have been spotted but we have seen some alums.  Mbark Boussoufa put in a good shift on the left side for Morocco in their tough 0-1 loss to Iran.  Gylfi Sigurdsson created all kinds of chances and Kari Arnason looked solid in central defense as Iceland drew 1-1 with Argentina.  And Paul Pogba scored one (barely) and set up one (his through ball to Griezmann resulted in a PK) for France in their 2-1 win over Australia.  Way to do honor to the Chester name guys.


Quote of Week

Laura and Mackenzie have been in Scotland since 6/8.  Monday they found their way to a pub to have dinner and watch England take on Tunisia, a match the English eventually took 2-1 on two Harry Kane goals.  Mackenzie comments:

It's really hard to root for Tunisia when you're in a British bar, but, like, colonialism...and attractive Arab men

 Yes, they need to get home soon to provide that kind of commentary on a regular basis.  Plus I can't do best hair selection on my own.


He's Allowed to Say That 

South Korean manager Shin Tae-yong had his players wear numbers different than what they wore in recent friendlies in an attempt to limit the usefulness of scouting reports.  His reasoning?

‘We switched them around because we didn’t want to show our opponents everything and to try and confuse them. They might know a few of our players but it is very difficult for Westerners to distinguish between Asians and that’s why we did that.’

You Gotta Get It In There to Get Three Points (One Point)

Peru Denmark was a lively affair with some great counterattacking.  That the Danes came away with a 1-0 win was in large part due to Christian Cueva missing a PK.  Missing is actually being kind.  You can see the "skied" PK here.  We are reminded of the wisdom of erstwhile coach Ted Lasso regarding the accuracy of PKs; fast forward to about 2:43 of this video to hear his thoughts on the subject.


Improve Your Vocabulary - Watch the World Cup

di·as·po·ra

dīˈaspərə/

noun

the dispersion of any people from their original homeland

Not once, but twice - on separate broadcasts - you might have heard the announcer use this term.  One time I'm sure it was in reference to many of the Tunisian players having been born in France.  I think the other time was in the Morocco-Iran contest but not sure.  My point is that I doubt you have ever heard that term used in a baseball, football, basketball or ice hockey telecast.  All this great action plus educational content as well.


We'll also note that BFS faves Belgium started slowly but eventually were too good for Panama in a 3-0 win.

We'll try to get back to you before the final group stage matches to highlight the important contests.

Hope you're having as much fun as we are.

It's Here!

The 2018 World Cup Final is set to begin on Thursday at 11 am with host Russia taking on Saudi Arabia.  Yes siree, you know where I'll be.  Sitting in US Bankruptcy Court, District of New Jersey, Courtroom 3B in Newark NJ.  Wait, what?  Work intervenes on Day 1 of the World Cup?  I'll just have to ask the judge for a continuance.  Surely he'll understand.  If he doesn't, well, it probably won't be the only match I dvr.

Millions of words have already been spilled on the event and millions more will follow.  I'll add a few thousand to the pile in our usual random way.

Immersion

The group stage of the WC has to be the most intense period of soccer.  After the solo match on Thursday, there are three or four matches every day for two weeks - 48 matches in total over 15 days.  For those keeping score at home, that's 72 hours of soccer.  With this being my first WC since leaving full time work, I had some thoughts about how much I could watch.  Even I may be forced to pick and choose a little, though I do plan to dvr each match.  For those of you with less discretionary time, I have identified my pick for the most important match for each day through the first two matches of the group stage.

6/14 Russia vs Saudi Arabia (11 am Fox) - Because it's the only game on

6/15 Portugal vs Spain (2 pm Fox) - Two powerhouses meet early, a loss would mean no more room for error

6/16 Peru vs Denmark (Noon FS1) - With France likely to win this group, these two will battle for the second spot; those following Iceland should know they face Argentina (9 am Fox)

6/17 Germany vs Mexico (11 am FS1) - Both likely to make it out of the group but second place probably gets Brazil in first knockout match so a win here is important

6/18 Tunisia vs England (2 pm FS1) - Will England make this harder than it needs to be?

6/19 Poland vs Senegal (11 am Fox) - If there's going to be an upset in this group, this might be it

6/20 Portugal vs Morocco (8 am FS1) - See Poland-Senegal

6/21 France vs Peru (11 am Fox) - If Peru lost to Denmark they'll need a result here; Argentina vs Croatia (2 pm Fox) is a worthy too

6/22 Serbia vs Switzerland (2 pm Fox) - Could determine who gets second in Group E; those following Iceland should know they take on Nigeria (11 am Fox)

6/23 - Germany vs Sweden (2 pm Fox) - Probably more competitive than Belgium - Tunisia or Korea - Mexico  

6/24 - Poland vs Colombia (2 pm Fox) - Arguably the two favorites from Group H but a loss here could leave one vulnerable

We'll review the final matches in group stage later as early results could lead to some surprises as to the key contests at that point.

If you have a favorite you want to follow, the schedule can be viewed here.

Playing the Part of the US

Iceland, darlings of the last European Championships, are not likely to make as a big splash at the World Cup.  Getting out of the group stage will be difficult but certainly not impossible.  Sound familiar?  Yep, just like the US.  Except for the population difference of 326,766,748.  And the volcanoes.

Who to Root For For Whom To Root Picking Another Team

With the US absence, you may be thrashing about looking for a team to get behind.  Well here's a handy World Cup Quiz prepared by the nice people at 538 you can use to pick another nation tailored to your own tastes.  Do you like offense or defense?  A team led by a star?  Answer a series a questions about your preferences in soccer teams, and they'll give you a recommendation.

Or you can use the Mackenzie Warren method, which ranks teams based on the degree to which the country was/is an imperial power.  Ties are broken by the ethnic diversity of the squads.  Makes it tough for those of us with a taste for European sides; even Iceland had the Vikings.  But hey, back in the day, Egypt used to flex its muscles so maybe we need some sort of statute of limitations on this colonialism thing or we'll be left rooting for everybody's favorite penal colony, Australia.

Also courtesy of Mackenzie, we offer this four minute guide from noted blogger John Green.

For the record, we are partial to Belgium, England and Iceland.  Wouldn't mind seeing Peru get to the knockout stage.  

The Competition

Again, many words already written.  You can see the FIFA rankings here which suggest Germany and Brazil are the clear favorites.  The thing is, while the FIFA rankings aren't awful at separating good teams from bad teams, they don't do a great job at the subtler differences.  This is because of how much emphasis they place on the results of friendlies.  Poland was able to get itself a nice FIFA ranking simply by not playing much.

I'd be inclined to put more weight on these rankings, which don't weigh the friendlies as heavily.  Sure, it's Brazil and Germany again but by nowhere near the same margin and more countries are close to the top, with Spain, France and Argentina looking like legitimate contenders.

As usual, the quality of each of the eight groups varies widely.  From top to bottom, based on either the FIFA or ELO rankings, Group E - Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia and Costa Rica - could stake a claim to the label "Group of Death."  By any measure, Group A - Uruguay, Egypt, Russia and Saudi Arabia - is one of the weakest in WC history - the Group of Candyland?

But average ranking of the group doesn't necessarily translate to competitiveness.  If the groups were perfectly seeded and form held throughout, the knockout rounds would consist of the top 16 ranked teams.  Seeding each team by their ELO ranking, is there a group which has more than two top 16 teams?   That would be C, with France, Peru, and Denmark.  One of those very good teams is not advancing out of the group stage.   I feel a little bad for Mexico and Sweden since only one of them will advance out of Group F, barring complete collapse by Germany. Looking at it this way, Group G might really be the easiest, with England(7) and Belgium(8) paired with Panama (29) and Tunisia (30).  And our Group of Candyland has the 28th (Russia), 31st (Egypt) and 32nd (Saudi Arabia) seeded teams so its own way, that group could be quite competitive.

I think I'll stop here.  We'll be back at various points in the competition, probably to point out important stuff like the best hair in the tournament or maybe talk about some of the more interesting developments.  Enjoy.

Addendum: I don't think these 538 predictions were out when I published yesterday.

What'd I Miss?

Turns out, nothing.  Through judicious use of streaming and dvr, I was able to stay on top of everything despite a 6-day trip to Eugene for some track and field plus hiking and golf.  Dennis helped me out on the Championship division final with his trial subscription to ESPN+ so I saw that live.  Fox Soccer Match Pass gave me access to the Champions League final, though I didn't actually watch it until a day later.  Fortunately, Eugene is all about the track and field so there was no danger of spoiling the result short of an ill-advised trip to the web.  And the Union?  That was easy, no danger of getting those results so I watched upon my return.  Some passing thoughts, not necessarily in chronological order.


Referee Did Not Cost You the Match, Part Infinity

Haris Medunjanin gets the first of his two quick yellows
Photo: Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports

Can't say I agreed with Sorin Stoica on at least three of his calls and they certainly had a big impact on the match but in the end, the Union, not Stoica, were the architects of their own downfall.  To set the scene, here's the PK call and the subsequent unraveling.  Real time I didn't think it was a foul but looking at it a few more times, it's really close.  The Union players started to get themselves into a lather when Stoica did not review the play.  Except that's not exactly what happened.  By rule, the Video Assistant Referee has to review every foul in the box. That Stoica did not go to the replay monitor means that the VAR saw nothing to suggest that there was a clear and obvious error. Looking at the replay several times I didn't see enough to clearly say that Trusty didn't make contact with Martinez so the correct application of VAR would be to let the play stand.  Tough call maybe but not outrageous.  And how did it happen in the first place? A Union turnover.  Also, Martinez was not offside as Philly announcers claimed.  You can see a Union player (turns out it was Medunjanin) at the bottom of the TV screen who clearly kept him onside.

So the Union were looking at maybe, maybe, being down 0-1 but the match was still very much salvageable at this point.  Except then Bedoya got a yellow card for entering the arc to adjust his socks as Martinez was preparing to take the kick.  Stoica shows him yellow for delay of game (league is saying it was dissent - whatever).  Unfortunately, Bedoya is already on a yellow for an earlier professional foul.  So Alejandro is gone.  Yeah, other referees might have just warned him instead of showing yellow - it's what I would have done.   On the other hand, Bedoya is clearly trying to ice the kicker.  If' he's already on a yellow, why is Bedoya the one playing games?  He's probably banking on Stoica being reluctant to show a second yellow for a "trivial" offense.  Well, that backfired.  Players from both sides are claiming that Stoica didn't know he already had a yellow.  Not clear how they know that or even how Stoica didn't remember showing Bedoya a yellow a mere eight minutes earlier.  Also, a second video I saw shows Stoica taking out the red within seconds of showing the second yellow so it sure looks like he knew exactly what he was doing (video here). Short leash from Stoica? Probably, but Bedoya was playing with fire and got burned.

It took about three seconds for Medunjanin to totally lose his sh cool after seeing his teammate get sent off.  And about another three seconds for him to get two yellows and the requisite sending off.  Again, overreaction from Stoica?  Maybe, but we don't know what Medunjanin said.  Some are saying he spit at Stoica but to me it looks like he spits at the ground in disgust.  Maybe the first yellow is understandable but walk the hell away after you get the first one.  That the Union have made it clear they will not be appealing Medunjanin's red card shows they realize there's no case to be made here.  They have appealed the Bedoya red.

In sum, the Union made their own bed and they were forced to lie in it.  Funny thing was, they actually played really well.  The PK was converted and they gave up a second goal early in the second half, but were able to cut the deficit in half when Picault megged keeper Brad Guzan in the 52nd minute.  Geez, remember  a month ago when we had no hope of scoring at even strength?  Chances for a draw were alive but on life support until Fabinho was called for handling in the box.  Another correct use of VAR; took a few seconds for Stoica to be notified and a few seconds for him to check it out on the replay monitor.

This was always a tough match on the calendar and was by definition going to be ugly - indoors on artificial turf.  Unfortunately, the repercussions will extend beyond the match as both Bedoya and Medunjanin are looking at suspensions.


Happier Times

Before the devil went down to Georgia, the Union had fashioned a nifty four game unbeaten streak.  They followed up the win in Montreal with an incredible offensive outburst in taking down Real Salt Lake 4-1 with four different goal scorers.  In New Jersey they arguably outplayed the Red Bulls but could only manage a 0-0 draw after Sapong missed a PK.  Back home against Chicago was pretty much a repeat of Real Salt Lake, dominating play and eventually pulling away.  Random memories of the three matches include:

- feeling like Dockal is taking over in the midfield, becoming the playmaker we thought he could be
- in the Chicago match, the half-time whistle was fast approaching with the Union having nothing to show for 45 minutes of dominance; Ilsinho took care of that with a great move and laser shot as time was about to expire
- they are still prone to turnovers that leave them exposed and are very susceptible to counterattacks

Ten points in four games was a shot in the arm.  Still not top six but much closer.  And when playing full strength, right now they look pretty good.


No Return For Aston Villa

Incredibly, Aston Villa sleepwalked through the first half against Fulham in the Champions division playoff final and were lucky to only be down 0-1.  Hard to believe because this was their chance to get back to the Premier League.  The Villans did come to play in the second half and looked lively.  But Dennis, his cynicism finely honed from his years as an Aston Villa fan, scoffed that the only way they would score was if Jack Grealish, the most fouled player on earth, could get a Fulham player to take a second yellow.  Well he did, getting Fulham defender Denis Odoi to make a rash challenge in the 70th minute to earn a second yellow.  Funny thing, it seemed like Villa actually played worse from that point and never found the equalizer and will spend another season in the Championship division.

"Parachute payments" from the league mean that relegated clubs don't feel the full financial pinch from falling out of the top division right away.  But the amounts decline over a three year period and next year, Villa's last with parachute payments, the amount drops from 34m to 15m pounds.  And if you factor in this story about missing tax payments, you can only conclude that the financial situation is not good and prospects for a return to the top tier anytime soon are fading.


Golazo and Concussion

1 v 6 is not a problem for Bale - he scores anyway

I can't say I loved the Champions League Final but it may be because I just plain don't like Real Madrid.  They were certainly the better side in the 3-1 win over Liverpool.  Happy enough for Gareth Bale though, who entered the game as a substitute and provided a game winner of the highest quality.  With the score level at 1-1 Marcelo crossed the ball into the box that Bale bicycle kicked into the net; given the timing, it might be the YouTubeableMoment of the year.

Real Madrid's other two goals came on pretty brutal mistakes by Liverpool keeper Loris Karius.  One was an ill-advised pass that got deflected and the other was a solid but stoppable shot from Bale that went through the keeper's hands.  We found out later that he may have been playing with a concussion.  That would be the second injury that Sergio Ramos inflicted on Liverpool, having sent striker Mo Salah to the sidelines with a shoulder injury in the first half.  Not a big fan of Ramos either but the petition to start a lawsuit against him for injuring Salah is perhaps an overreaction.  Ramos was able to make light of it:

"After the goalkeeper said that I dazed him with a clash with me I am only missing Firmino saying that he got a cold because a drop of my sweat.

The result was good news for Spurs fans as Tottenham will now get a preferred position in next year's Champions League draw.


World Cup Preview

For those who want to get a head start on their World Cup reading, check out this site from Yahoo.  I like that it has team-by-team previews plus assessments of how the individual groups may play out.

Friday I'll be down at Talen Energy to see the Union take on Toronto, the still sleeping giant of the Eastern Conference that currently sits in 10th.  Hope they don't wake up for another week or so.

Next week we'll take a look at the World Cup, not so much to predict the winner but more to suggest  what to watch, in case you're not planning to catch every match.