You Cannot Win If You Do Not Win

Kind of a bust to the end of the season, excitement wise.  Recall that the only two things up for grabs were the final Champions League spot and 17th place in the table (i.e. the last spot safe from relegation).  Chelsea needed to win and get help from others to claim the former while Swansea needed to win and get help from others to avoid relegation.  Well, neither made it through step one, winning their own matches.  What's the old joke, God tells the praying person to help him out by at least buying the lottery ticket first?

Conte - I hate my job

Chelsea were thoroughly dismantled at St. James' Park by a Newcastle squad that looked like they had everything to play for.  Pre-match Conte looked like he needed his morning coffee; during the match he just looked like a sad puppy dog (see picture left).  Is an FA Cup win over Man United enough to save his job?  I didn't see the Swansea-Stoke match but metrics at 538 suggest it should have been a win for the Swans so maybe they were really unlikely.  Still, I am left with the thought that if you can't beat Stoke in your home park maybe the Championship Division is where you belong at the moment.

So it's West Brom, Stoke and Swansea down, Man City (which did hit 100 points), Man United, Tottenham and Liverpool for Champions League, and Chelsea, Arsenal and Burnley for the NIT Europa League.


Happy Days Tyneside

What an exclamation point to end the season for the Magpies.  Thoroughly in command from the start, the 3-0 scoreline seems about right.  The win sealed up 10th place, a finish that would have seemed improbable back in August and impossible back in December.  And IMHO opinion, you can see Rafa Benitez's fingerprints all over this result.  Let's go back to 2016, when he takes a big gamble, making Jamaal Lascelles (who had yet to turn 23) captain of the squad.  Look at his choices for player acquisitions, while keeping in mind the budget he was given - Dubravka, LeJeune, Diame, Kenedy, Merino, Yedlin.  Some of the seeming bust choices aren't as bad as they might seem either - Atsu, Joselu, Murphy.  Clearly more hits than misses.  And players like Shelvey, Dummit and Diame clearly got better under his tutelage.  In my book, Benitez should be second behind Burnley's Sean Dyche but ahead of Pep Guardiola in the Manager of the Year balloting.

As heady as the last few months have been, the future still hangs in the balance.  That Ashley would sell the club right now - or more accurately, that someone would meet his asking price - seems highly unlikely.  So it comes down to whether Ashley makes a commitment to Benitez and a transfer budget and whether Benitez believes anything Ashley says.  If Rafa stays, it means he believes the budget will be close enough to match his ambitions for Newcastle.  In that scenario, a top seven finish is clearly not a pipe dream.  If Rafa goes, all bets are off.  I doubt we find another manager that could do so much with so little.  In that scenario, Newcastle is likely to struggle to avoid relegation every year, and once they do go down, return might not be immediate.


Richest Payoff

The final is set for the Championship Division playoff final to determine which club from that league will be the third to be promoted to the EPL.  Wolverhampton and Cardiff City are already in by virture of their 1-2 finish in regular season play.  Fulham took care of Derby County in one semi, while Aston Villa edged Middlesbrough in the other.  So two sides that were in the EPL not so long ago will battle in what is generally considered the most lucrative contest in sports.  Estimates vary but many believe the marginal impact of promotion to be over $200 million.  No word from BFS co-founder Dennis as to whether he will dig out his Aston Villa paraphernalia should the Villans return.  Also, it appears that the EPL is a zero sum game with respect to Wales - Cardiff is in but Swansea out.


Europa

Will Griezmann be in Atleti colors next year?

Not a thriller but a decent win for Atletico Madrid over Marseille in the Europa League final.  To my eye, Marseille had the run of play but Antoine Greizmann will make you pay for the slightest mistake.  His finishing was simply clinical as he scored two to power the Mattressmakers to the title. Post match the Frenchman was cagey about reports that he might be headed to Barcelona, and not for summer vacation.

We kid about how Europa League has second class status compared to the Champions League but the achievement shouldn't be diminished.  You have to beat a lot of good sides to win the thing.


We Love VAR

This is at least the second time that VAR has come to the Union's rescue.  Clinging to a 0-1 lead and down a man after Cory Burke's ill-advised challenge, Impact defender Daniel Lovitz hauled down Fafa Picault chasing down a ball with only the keeper left.  Referee initially only showed yellow but upon further review, changed it to red.  Threat over, the Union went on to add another and get their first road win.  I never saw a replay that gave me a clear idea of how close Picault was to the ball in comparison to the keeper so I'll stay mum on whether it was a correct call.

And that was only one talking point for the 2-0 win.  First, Curtin made five changes to the starting 11.  Some were driven in part by injury (Burke for Sapong and Gaddis for Fabinho).  But others seemed to come down to recent form (McKenzie for Elliott, Picault for Accam, and Epps for Ilsinho).  Each had varying degrees of success.  Picault's speed is always an issue but he didn't seem to add much else.  McKenzie and Epps weren't great but made no mistakes.  Burke created serious havoc, both good and bad.  On offense, he provided new energy and his goal was high quality. But, he was also prone to losing the ball, leading to dangerous opportunities for Montreal and his silly challenge could have been costly had not Montreal also lost a man.  Gaddis was an unqualified success, possibly his best game ever.  His defense has always been steady but the knock has been that he doesn't provide much offense.  Not this time; he was forward a bunch and registered a shot and an assist without shirking his defensive responsibilities.

As we noted last week, Montreal is not the most formidable side the Union will face this year.  But, it is a road win coming at the end of three games in nine days.  Good on Curtin for shaking things up.


Taking A Few Weeks Off

For a variety of reasons, we're going to "rest" for the next couple of weeks.  I'll be out in Eugene doing live reporting for my other gig at the Prefontaine Classic.  The football schedule is on the quiet side for a little while.  And we'll be doing plenty of writing as the World Cup kicks in.

Don't forget FA Cup Final featuring match up between Man United and Chelsea this Saturday at 12:15 on Fox.  Story line for me is what happens to Conte afterwards; does a win or loss change anything?

The following Saturday there's a sweet doubleheader with the Championship Division playoff between Aston Villa and Fulham at noon and the Champions League final at 2:45.  Both are on a Fox network station I believe.

The Union will be quite active with matches vs Real Salt Lake (5/19), NJ Red Cows (5/26), Chicago (5/30), Atlanta (6/2) and Toronto (6/8).

Okay, so I overstated how quiet things will be.  But in comparison to the last few weeks, it is kind of slow.

Doors Opening and Closing

Weekend and mid-week fixtures served to, surprisingly quickly it seemed, settle most of the unresolved situations.  Let's review how things played out.  All times are approximate and EDT.

The margin by which Brighton get to stay in the EPL

4:40 Friday - Brighton claims safety via a surprise 1-0 upset of Man United.  Mourinho is also upset - at his players.  This result does not exist without goal line technology, as you can see here in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  You can see how close it was in the picture at left and we doubt the referee or the AR would have called this a goal without the technology.

9:20 Saturday - Crystal Palace are in and Stoke are out after the Eagles come from behind 2-1 win.

11:50 Saturday - Bournemouth and Watford are now safe, and somehow, incredibly, West Brom are not yet eliminated.  Bournemouth and Watford went the easy route with wins over Swansea and Newcastle respectively.   And staring at elimination, West Brom somehow got a goal in stoppage time to best Tottenham 1-0 and stay alive, at least for another 90 minutes.  West Ham surprised Leicester 2-0 but were not safe yet.  Despite the loss to Bournemouth, Swansea still control their own fate and will survive by beating Southampton and Stoke in their final two fixtures.

2:20 Saturday - Southampton have just blown a chance to make a big step towards safety.  Leading 1-0, the Saints surrender a goal to Everton in the 96th minute and turn three points into one.  Not only do they remain at risk, the result has implications elsewhere.  That last minute goal means West Brom are still alive until at least Tuesday.  And West Ham are now safe.

Sunday - Nothing as dramatic as yesterday but Huddersfield grab a totally unexpected point from Man City, at the Etihad no less; it's a welcome point but they are still at serious risk.  Chelsea's 1-0 win over Liverpool means that the Blues are still in the hunt for a Champions League spot, close on the heels of both Tottenham and Liverpool.

The weekend ends with Huddersfield, Southampton, Swansea and West Brom not out of the woods.  The Baggies predicament is bad, as they need a Swansea-Southampton draw on Tuesday, a win next Sunday against Crystal Palace, a multiple goal loss by Southampton to Man City and a Swansea loss to Stoke.  BFS Oddsmaker, Lloyd Christmas, explains their situation.

Gabbiadini sends Southampton to safety

4:40 Tuesday - West Brom are out and Swansea on the ropes as Southampton grab a 1-0 win over the Swans in Wales.  Mark Hughes looks like a genius as he substitutes  striker Manolo Gabbiadini for defender Jan Bednarek after the latter takes a blow to the head; the Italian scores a mere four minutes after entering the pitch.

4:40 Wednesday - Huddersfield are in after a second straight improbable draw, this time against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  That result, combined with Tottenham's uninspiring 1-0 win over Newcastle, means Spurs are now guaranteed a place in next year's CL.

So all that's left to determine are the final relegation spot, which comes down to Southampton and Swansea and the final Champions League spot, which will go to either Liverpool or Chelsea.  A win or a draw for the Southampton against Man City OR a loss or draw for Stoke against Crystal Palace keeps Southampton up.  Even a Southampton loss and Swansea win would require a ten goal swing in goal differential to save the Swans; so a pair of 5-0 results would do it. Sure.

For the CL side of things, Liverpool get the spot with a win over Brighton or a Chelsea loss or draw to Newcastle.  A Liverpool draw and Chelsea win would leave them with equal points but Chelsea would have to eliminate a 15 goal differential; Newcastle defense has not been that shaky all year so it pretty much has to be a Chelsea win and Liverpool loss for the Blues to sneak in.


Manager of the Year

Recall last week we suggested that any of Rafael Benitez, Sean Dyche or Pep Guardiola would be worthy of the designation.  This week the nominations came out and those three are on the list.  Also nominated were Roy Hodgson, Chris Hughton and Jurgen Klopp.  Also not bad candidates but I would stick with one of my original three - probably going with Dyche.


Here To Stay

With the Huddersfield draw, all three of this year's promoted sides - Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield - will stay up for another season in the EPL.  This has happened twice before since the EPL was formed in 1992.  Fulham, Bolton and Blackburn managed to stick around after the 2001-02 season while QPR, Norwich and Swansea did it in 2011-12.


A Nice, Civil Beatdown

That''s how The Philly Soccer Page described the Union 0-3 loss to Toronto FC.  We really do not need to elaborate.  Wednesday's 0-1 loss to Columbus was, actually I can't say because I only saw the highlights.  I had tried to set the DVR using the remote FIOS feature, which has worked fine in the past, but was unable to record this match.  Should I be grateful that FIOS messed up and saved me from two hours of bad soccer?  So the one-game winning streak ended and once again the team seems headed in the wrong direction.  I fear that when we look up after the World Cup ends in mid-July, the Union season will also be over.


BFS Home Sides

For those keeping score at home, you might note that BFS favorites - Newcastle and the Union -  lost four times between Friday and Wednesday, managing just one goal between them.  Yeah, good times.

The Newcastle viewing wasn't really all that bad, except for the first half at Watford.  The Magpies were lucky to be down just 0-2 at halftime but were clearly the better side when play restarted.  Ayoze Perez continues to frustrate and amaze; as bad as he was in the first half, his second half goal was a technical gem.  At Wembley, you could argue that for the most part, Newcastle were the better side, playing solid defense with surprisingly effective counter attacks in the 0-1 loss to Spurs.  The difference came down to Harry Kane being a higher quality finisher than anyone on Newcastle.  This is a known issue - Newcastle need to spring for a top level striker if they want to avoid the relegation battle every year.  Hopefully we will hear shortly that Benitez is signed for the long-term and upgrades are underway.

Turning to Union-on-Delaware, well, things just aren't that rosy.  Our new designated players - Accam and Dockal - simply aren't making a difference.  That's being kind, especially to Accam.  Jim O'Leary at Philly Soccer Page has this article arguing that the problem is not that the Union are cheap but rather how they spend the money.   You have to say he has a good point - the Union finished poorly last year so they spent about $1.5 million to add Accam and Dockal.  He also details other high cost acquisitions that have not paid off.  So they have spent money, just maybe not wisely.  Fair points in comments section that cheap can also mean failing to spend on human and physical infrastructure (e.g. scouting, training facilities, etc.).

The fire Jim Curtin drumbeat continues as well.  I have been mostly a defender, suggesting that he just doesn't have the same quality horses as the others.  But I am starting to be persuaded that maybe he does have to take some share of the blame if players are not improving under his tutelage. Trotting out the same lineup doesn't make a lot of sense either.  Might as well see if some other players might make a difference, or, if sitting out a few matches lights a fire under some of those not performing at their best.


Weekend

All EPL matches are Sunday at 10 am.  Four have potential consequences.  Liverpool host Brighton (NBC) needing a win or maybe just a draw to secure Champions League action next year.  Chelsea travel to Newcastle (NBCSN) and must win and hope for a good result Merseyside.  Southampton host Man City (SyFy) and would like a point but really just need to keep the Citizens goal scorers from running amok.  And Swansea play Stoke in Wales (CNBC) and need their goal scorers to run amok while hoping for a favorable outcome down south.

The Union continue their road trip with a match in Montreal Saturday at 3 pm.  We'd love to see them get a draw out of this given that the Impact haven't exactly set the league on fire this year.  But, the Union have failed to secure a point in four tries on the road and have yet to score outside of Talen Energy Stadium.  So, we will not hold our breath.

Backing Into Safety

Matt Phillips celebrates scoring for West Brom
 Photograph: Lee Smith/Reuters

Good thing there were several paths for Newcastle to finalize their spot in next year's Premier League.  Plan A, to take care of things ourselves by beating West Brom at home, fell through as they lost to the Baggies 0-1.  West Brom really didn't do all that much but Newcastle did even less. Not that the lads weren't trying hard, it was just that everything was off, especially the passing.  If Shelvey was still under consideration for the England WC squad, he probably isn't anymore.  Down on the south coast, Southampton was fashioning a tense 2-1 win over Bournemouth.  Fortunately Chelsea was able to turn back Swansea 1-0, a match played in a classic Wales downpour. That result drags Newcastle over the line.

With Newcastle officially safe from both relegation and Europa Cup, attention now turns to who's going to be on next year's squad.  Martin Dubravka looks like a, excuse the pun, keeper; Newcastle can make the deal permanent for 4 m or so and we can't imagine that won't happen.  Kenedy has played well and Benitez says he wants to keep him.  But it's Chelsea's decision if they want to sell - or loan him again - to Newcastle.  Islam Slimani often made a difference when he played.  But therein lies the rub.  He missed a lot of time due to injury and will now miss the rest of the season due to stupidity.  Letting his emotions get the better of him, he kicked Craig Dawson - in retaliation - and earned himself a three-game suspension.  Two problems with this.  First, he's going to miss the chance to show what he can do and second, Benitez has little tolerance for this behavior.  I don't see him returning.


Life at the Bottom

We mentioned West Brom and Southampton getting wins and Swansea a loss.  Stoke played Liverpool tough and grabbed a totally unexpected point with a 0-0 draw at Anfield.  Brighton also nicked an extra point on the road with a 0-0 draw at Burnley.  On the flip side, Huddersfield couldn't get anything at home against a seemingly rejuvenated Everton and West Ham fans returned to their disgruntled disposition after a 1-4 dismantling by Man City.  Crystal Palace continued their good run-in, dispatching Leicester 5-0; the Eagles had a 2-0 lead before Leicester had a man sent off and things deteriorated from there.

Here's the table:

Place	Team	GP	Pts	Diff	Remaining Games
11	Crystal Palace	36	38	-13	Stoke (A), West Brom
12	Bournemouth	36	38	-18	Swansea, Burnley (A)
13	Watford	36	38	-20	Newcastle, Man United (A)
14	Brighton	35	37	-15	Man U, Man City (A), Liverpool (A)
15	West Ham	35	35	-24	Leicester (A), Man United, Everton
16	Huddersfield	35	35	-29	Man City (A), Chelsea (A), Arsenal
17	Swansea	35	33	-25	Bournemouth (A), Southampton, Stoke
18	Southampton	35	32	-19	Everton (A), Swansea (A), Man City
19	Stoke	36	30	-33	Crystal Palace, Swansea City (A)
20	West Brom	36	28	-24	Tottenham, Crystal Palace

The BFS model, using 538 predictions, still has West Brom, Stoke and Southampton as the demotees.  But it doesn't take much to bring Swansea, Huddersfield or West Ham into the picture. There's a scenario in which West Ham, Huddersfield, Swansea and Southampton all finish with 35 points and relegation would come down to goal differential; Huddersfield, already at -29, would likely be the odd side out given that they finish with Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal.  Swansea, with home matches against Southampton and Stoke, seemingly control their own fate. Pretty wild that so many teams are still at risk.


Life at the Top

Man United pulled off the double of clinching a top four finish while pinning a loss on Arsenal in Arsene Wenger's final trip to Old Trafford.  A pretty spirited match seemed headed for a 1-1 draw before Fellaini headed in the game winner in the 91st minute.  Coupled with Tottenham's win on Monday, the loss means no top four finish for the Gunners again.  Speaking of Spurs, they were certainly uninspiring and at times looked vulnerable but managed a 2-0 win at home against Watford.  Good thing for them because Chelsea had closed to within two points.  Tottenham's prospects for a top four finish are enhanced by this Sunday's fixture between Chelsea and Liverpool - somebody's going to be dropping points.  And Liverpool, as we mentioned, already dropped points with their draw against Stoke.


We Are Entertained

Both the Champions League semi-final second legs provided thrills and spills.  On Tuesday, Real Madrid barely hung on for a 4-3 aggregate win over Bayern.  Recall that Real Madrid came home with a 2-1 lead, a nice cushion with the two away goals.  Bayern got one quickly but knew they needed at least one more.  Two first half tallies by Benzema seemingly put the match out of reach but James scored at 63 minutes to set up a thrilling finish.  And Bayern had chances to get that third score, which would have advanced them to the final on the away goal advantage.  Alas, it was not to happen and Real Madrid head to their third straight CL final.

Liverpool carried a 5-2 lead to Italy for the second leg against Roma.  And what a strange one this was.  Liverpool jumped early but Roma got one back quickly on a weird own goal in which Lovren nearly decapitated his teammate Milner with a clearance that ricocheted back into the net.  It's bizarre enough that we'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Still, things seemed to be okay for Liverpool after Wijnaldum's tally at 25 minutes.  With the score at 2-2 (or 7-4 on aggregate), Roma got two late goals from Nainggolan to bring the final tally to 7-6 - the highest scoring CL series ever.  Liverpool wasn't really at risk of coughing up the match but it was still a good watch.

We would guess that RM will be the favorite in the final.


And More Entertainment

Think Dockal was happy after scoring game winner against
 DC United? Photo: Greg Caroccio/Philadelphia Union

Sitting with beers in a warm April sunshine at Talen Energy Stadium watching a lively contest between the Union and DC United, Jeff H and I were were almost willing to accept whatever result the Union could manage.  Fortunately, we got all the good stuff plus a 3-2 win for the homeside, the game winner coming from Borek Dockal from close range in the 72nd minute.

And this really is a better Union side than we've seen in many years (ever?).  The changes made in midfield are paying off with possession football that is 1) pleasing to the eye and 2) so much more effective than the dump and chase the Union have relied on for so many years.   It is leading to more scoring opportunities and you feel like eventually they are going to get converted into goals - like they did on Saturday.  Unfortunately, we still have a side that is so easily exposed on counterattack.  At one point midway through the second half, the score was 2-2 and the Union had like 15 shots and DC United two.  A function of youth in the back line?  Maybe but it seems like the whole team needs work on transition.

A smattering of boos for manager Jim Curtin at the start of the match. The frustration is understandable but is there really that much different he can be doing with the squad?  I will note that he started Ilsinho over Picault and got a goal out of it.  But if this is the range of options at his disposal, how much can you pin on Curtin right now?

Pot Meet Kettle

BFS Political Correspondent Philip Scott points out a developing story involving Donald Trump and the US bid to host the 2026 World Cup.  Details are here.  Perhaps concerned that he has damaged the US chances with a travel ban focused on Muslim-majority nations and the reference to many of the likely competing countries as "shit-hole nations," Trump tweeted a plea for support and questioned why the US should support nations that don't back our bid.  FIFA pointed out several of the organization's rules that prohibit this kind of lobbying.  Of course we know what kind of lobbying they do permit, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, say no more.  Anyway, Trump being schooled by FIFA on ethics, well, you have to laugh I guess.


Relegation Watch

The weekend starts early with a Friday match featuring Man United at Brighton (3 pm on NBCSN).  Our recommended match of the week is Chelsea hosting Liverpool at 11 am on Sunday (NBCSN).  A loss or draw for Chelsea pretty much ends their CL hopes; even a win leaves them depending on the kindness of strangers because their goal differential is quite a bit worse than either Liverpool or Tottenham.

Saturday TV features three relegation specials, starting with Stoke-Crystal Palace at 7:30 (NBCSN), Bournemouth-Swansea at 10 (NBCSN) and Everton-Southampton at 12:30 (NBC).  Things could be much clearer or much more unsettled based on results in those matches.  On Sunday Man City continue their charge for 100 points as they host Huddersfield (8:30 on NBCSN). If for some reason you're not interested in Chelsea-Liverpool at 11, you can flip over to CNBC to catch Arsenal-Burnley as they fight over sixth place in the table.

We'll likely take in Newcastle at Watford on NBC Gold on Saturday at 10 am with the "hide scores" function engaged so we can go back and see the more relevant stuff.  Leicester-West Ham is also on NBC Gold.

Midweek matches include the dream relegation match-up of Swansea-Southampton on Tuesday at 2:45.  Wednesday includes four more matches, including Tottenham-Newcastle at 3 pm.  The EPL website doesn't have TV listings as of publication.

By the time you read this, you'll probably know the result of the Europa League semi-final between Atletico and Arsenal, also known as Arsenal's last chance for Champions League football next season.  At 1-1 heading to Madrid, we think the Gunners are facing long odds to make it to the final.

The Union have another Friday night match, this time in Toronto at 8 pm.  Toronto sit in last in the East but we fear that this is a sleeping giant; also, the Union are 0-2-0 on the road.  Thinking we'll be lucky to get a point out of this one.