There's Snow Place Like Home

Red card, white snow.  Charlie Adams fouls
Rooney and gets sent off.

I don't remember seeing so much snow during matches, especially in March.  Scenes like the one pictured on the right here were common on Saturday.  Of course, it matches perfectly with our spring weather here in the US Northeast.  Maybe it was good the schedule was light, with four FA Cup matches and four EPL games.


FA Cup 

The semis are set and it's not really a surprise:

Man United - Tottenham
Chelsea - Southampton

Hmm, one of these is not like the other.  That would be Southampton, which had the luxury of playing League One Wigan.  Despite being outplayed by the lower division side, the Saints managed a 2-0 win and a berth in the semis.  Tottenham and Manchester United were generally not pressed in beating Swansea (3-0) and Brighton (2-0) respectively.  The last of the quarters - Leicester vs Chelsea - was easily the most interesting of the four.  A generally even match throughout, Chelsea held a 1-0 lead late until Jamie Vardy leveled things in the 76th minute.  Pedro's goal in extra time (the 105th minute) ended up being the match winner.  The semi finals will be on Saturday April 21 at Wembley.  Uh, that's not exactly a neutral site for the Man United - Tottenham match.


Relegation Picture 

Even with a reduced schedule, the matches this weekend may have sealed the fates of a few sides.  West Brom, always a favorite in the relegation race, carried a 1-0 lead over Bournemouth into the 76th minute but late goals from Ibe (77th minute) and Stanislaus (89th minute) meant the Baggies got nothing.  The three points for Bournemouth take them to 36 and almost certain survival.  Stoke played in the snow with just 10 men but battled Everton gamely.  Everton finally broke through in the 69th minute but the Potters hopes of a point were restored with a goal in the 77th minute.  Alas, Cenk Tosun stole it back with his second of the match in the 84th minute.  The BFS model now has Stoke finishing 19th with 29 points, six short of safety.

Crystal Palace made a big move towards survival with a 2-0 win on the road at Huddersfield.  We won't say it was awesome soccer but the five yellow cards in the second half are an indication of the match's intensity.  This was two points the Eagles didn't expect.  Even better for Crystal Palace, it changed a few of the 538 projections for future matches so the BFS model now shows them at 42 points, well clear of the relegation zone.

In the only other match of the weekend, Liverpool more than handled Watford, keeping the Reds on track for a top four finish and leaving the Hornets stranded mid-table but probably safe from relegation.


What If They Played a Match and No One Came?

As the old saying goes, there were many in the crowd at Saturday's Union match who came disguised as empty seats.  The announced attendance was over 15,000 but I'd be surprised if there were 5,000 bodies in the stands.  And we were treated to a less than scintillating 0-0 draw with Columbus.  Not that this was a terrible result, just not the greatest viewing.

New CB Auston Trusty (I think this is just after 'megging
the Columbus midfielder) Photo:Trey Madara

The biggest issue seemed to be that Union players would only shoot when the ball was placed on a platter for them, which means they either never got the shot off or by the time they did, the defense had closed them down.  Our new midfielder, Borek Dockal (pronounced Smith Dotch-kal), was less than stellar but this was his first match so we're not too upset about that.  The highlight was the positioning of the back line, especially the work of Trusty and Elliott.  Those two seemed to be constantly disrupting the Columbus passing lanes.  Check out this from The Philly Soccer Page player ratings for the match:

Auston Trusty — 7

Another game, another impressive performance by the Union Academy product. Trusty plays with a real swagger atypical of centerbacks. Please tell me the last time you saw a CB nutmeg a midfielder 40 yards from goal. Yeah, me neither. Extra points for being the inspiration for a Jim Curtin quote about how “centerbacks don’t look like they just walked out of the pub anymore.”

In fact, I did notice him nutmeg that midfielder.  It was right after Jeff K and I agreed that maybe ball handling was not Trusty's strong suit.  What do we know?

So four points from two matches and two clean sheets.  Good start.


Life Imitates Art Football Manager

Referee stats for the 2017-18 season:
Mike Dean (real life): 3.67 yellow cards per game (2nd most in EPL)
Mike Dean (Football Manager): 4.40 yellow cards per game (most in EPL)

Watching as a neutral, I don't mind seeing Mike Dean as the referee because he can make things interesting.  If it's a Newcastle match, there's a slight sense of dread, because he can make things interesting.  Same thing when I'm managing Chester; I cringe when I see he's been assigned to our game.  But I've learned now to instruct my players to be cautious in their tackling when he's the referee and we're doing a better job of staying out of trouble.

With the EPL title sewn up, the Blues are focused on the FA Cup and Champions League.  We are set for the final in the FA Cup and carry a 4-2 lead heading into the second leg of the Champions League against Man United.  Yes, nice to have four away goals coming home.


International Break

No league matches this week.  Check out your favorite national team's friendlies; there's a pile of them between now and next Thursday.  US takes on Paraguay on Tuesday.

BFS is also going to take a break next week.  Don't forget there will be a full slate of EPL matches the weekend of 3/31.  We'll be focused on Newcastle-Huddersfield, West Ham-Southampton and Chelsea-Tottenham.  Check your local listings for dates and times.

The Future's So Bright We Gotta Wear Shades

(musical accompaniment courtesy Timbuk 3)

Easy there, Sparky.  This is Newcastle we're talkin' about.

But it was a glorious weekend, wasn't it?  Basically everything fell the Magpies way.  Starting with the shockingly easy 3-0 win for Newcastle at home against Southampton.  I hadn't even sat down before Kenedy was bringing down Shelvey's pass off his chest, pivoting and scoring.  The second goal was a brilliant piece of counterattacking, as you can see from the video (this week's  YouTubeableMoment). Check out Gayle's run in support of Perez and Kenedy.  Shelvey's

Benitez and Pellegrino: Rafa answers the question as to
how many of them will still be managing come
 Monday (Image: PA)

pass set up Ritchie for the third at 57 minutes, which meant calm viewing the rest of the way.  Number of minutes this season Newcastle had a three goal lead before this moment - four.  No need to consult with BFS Director of Operations Research Dennis for that.  Massive three points.  And apparently enough of a spanking that the Southampton board sacked Mauricio Pellegrino.

Then the results started coming in from other precincts.  Every team in the bottom 11 besides Newcastle dropped points!  The biggest of the result might have been West Ham losing at home 0-3 to Burnley.  Huddersfield could only manage a 0-0 draw at home to short-handed Swansea.  And everywhere else, the top sides were taking care of business.  By the end of Match Week 30, Newcastle's relegation chances as measured by 538 had dropped from 18% to 4%.  The good news is that Newcastle are almost over the line; the bad news is that of the eight remaining matches, precious few are likely to add points.  Home matches against Huddersfield and West Brom offer the best opportunities.  Other positive news is that with this weekend's results, it's not outrageous to think that 34 points might be enough to stay up.


Meanwhile, Back at the Top

With most of the top sides winning, not much changed there.  Well, except for Man United taking the measure of Liverpool 2-1 at Old Trafford.  As I suggested last week, the result hardly damages Liverpool's chances of a top four finish but it did significantly boost the likelihood that Man United will finish second.  Man City rolled on with a modest 2-0 win over Stoke City and Tottenham started slowly but eventually took care of Bournemouth 4-1.  Chelsea kept pace with a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace but still look like the odd man out.


West Ham Fans Are Revolting

One of multiple pitch invasions during West Ham Burnley match
(Christopher Lee/Getty Images)

As the likely result became clearer at Olympic Stadium, there were multiple pitch invasions by disgruntled fans.  Though we do not condone fans going onto the field, we are awarding style points to the fan who took the corner flag and planted it in the center circle.  Some of the other incidents weren't so cool and there was a lot of tackling that didn't involve two players. This article provides a helpful explanation as to what's driving the discontent.  Not a happy scene.


This Is Definitely Not My Beautiful Game

The scene at West Ham may have been ugly but at least it wasn't disgusting or downright scary.  No, we can turn to others for that.  First, we have former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher spitting at a 14 year-old girl in the aftermath of Man United's 2-1 win over the Reds.  No link to the video because, well, it's disgusting; you can easily find it if you're interested.  Sure there was some banter going on there but spitting?  Really?  Uh, the girl's dad has nothing to be proud of as he was taking the video while driving.

Continuing on, in Greece, after a controversial call late in the PAOK-AEK match in the country's top league, PAOK owner Ivan Savvidis entered the field of play with a gun holstered on his hip.  You can read more and see the video here.   This is just plain scary.  Scary enough that Greek officials have suspended league play for the moment.  The incident comes on the heels of convictions for match fixing and referee intimidation. Suddenly, the MLS is looking much more grown-up.


Whose Line Is It Anyway?

Man United and Chelsea followed Tottenham in departing from this year's Champions League competition.  Neither was in a particularly strong position after the first leg and neither distinguished themselves in the second leg.  Michael B noted that The Special One offered up a bizarre post-match press conference, even for him.  Basically Mourinho said "What's the big deal?  Man United usually fares poorly in Champions League. Heck, I knocked them out twice myself when coaching other sides."  Really, read this and tell me that's not what he said.

Which takes me to the audience participation portion of this week's blog.  On more than one occasion, we have suggested that Mourinho may be the Donald Trump of football managers.  The Guardian apparently thinks so too and offers this 10 question test asking the reader to choose whether it was Trump or Mourinho who uttered the particular quote.  I got 8 of 10, which likely means I'm reading too many soccer and political blogs.


Whither Wenger?

With a 3-0 win over Watford and a convincing Europa League take down of AC Milan, this was a much better week for Arsenal.  They've drawn CSKA Moscow in the quarters.  At 538, they're giving Arsenal a 15% chance of winning the whole thing.  Which leads to the following question: If Arsenal finish 6th in the EPL but win the Europa League, does Wenger survive for another year?


Who Should We Root For?

BFS Social Media Director Mackenzie made sure I saw this YouTube post from Hank Green.  Hank notes that with the absence of the USMNT from this year's World Cup finals, many are facing the question of who to root for.  Personally, I have been heavily linked with the Belgium team and will be able to give them my mostly undivided attention.  In the role usually played by the US - that is, an underdog that will have to work it's ass off just to get out of the group stage - I'll be looking in on Iceland.  How can you not get excited about a country whose population, as Hank points out, is less than Wichita Falls?   Iceland did dodge a bullet when they found out that midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson will only miss 6-8 weeks with a knee ligament problem; initial reports had suggested he might miss the World Cup.

Recall that two years ago, Mackenzie did offer a handy, relatively easy-to-implement method of determining your rooting interest in the European Championships.  Her advice was to always cheer for the side with the least imperialistic history; if both countries were colonial powers, then choose based on the diversity of the squad.  This approach should work equally as well for the World Cup.  Unless of course, you want to root for England Germany any European country except Iceland (remember the Vikings?).  Belgium?  Ooh, not good, not good.


FA Cup Quarters

The FA Cup quarterfinals make a real hash of this weekend's schedule.  The quarterfinals themselves feature seven EPL sides and one League One club.  Can we say there are any scintillating match-ups?  Not really.  Tottenham go to Wales to face Swansea City at 8:15 on Saturday; except for Spurs penchant for getting draws on the road against lesser sides in the FA Cup, we'd say this should be no contest.  Manchester United host Brighton at 3:45 Saturday afternoon; after the mid-week Champions League exit, one would think anything less than a decisive win for the Red Devils will be cause for a Spanish Portuguese inquisition.

On Sunday at 9:30 we have the curious case of Wigan (League One) taking on relegation threatened Southampton, who will be under the care of a new manager.  This might be the most intriguing of the four fixtures.  The round concludes with Leicester-Chelsea at 12:30, which might be a decent match as well.

Because of the FA Cup matches, there are only four league fixtures.  We'll be focused on Huddersfield vs Crystal Palace at 11 am Saturday on NBCSN. We have this down as a draw but a win for either would vastly improve their chances of staying up.  Liverpool-Watford is the other TV match at 1:30 on Saturday, also on NBCSN.

We'll be in DVR mode Saturday, partly because I'll be making my first trip of the year to Talen Energy Stadium to see the Union take on Columbus.  The Crew are off to a good start and this is likely a sterner test than the season opener against New England. 

Is It the Run-in Yet?

Michael B and I have this debate as to when the "run-in" - the final stretch of the EPL fixtures - starts.  There seems to be no definition.  With almost a quarter of the season left, I think it's too soon but I have seen several newspapers handicapping the run-in this week.  Regardless of when it starts, this year's run-in has plenty to watch as four teams are competing for three Champions League spots and at least eight sides are at some risk of relegation.


No Surprise

 Lascelles was lucky to get away with this.
 Photograph: Gareth Copley/Getty Images

Newcastle's match at Anfield went about as well - or poorly - as we expected.  The Magpies generated precious few chances in the 2-0 defeat to Liverpool.  The best news from this match might be that Jamaal Lascelles did not get a red card - or even a foul - for bringing down Mo Salah on the edge of the box as time expired (see picture); the Newcastle captain would have been looking at a three-match suspension at exactly the wrong point in the schedule.

Elsewhere there was a decidedly mixed bag of results from a Newcastle-not-getting-relegated perspective.  Swansea grabbed all three points from West Ham and slipped past the Magpies in the standings.  Brighton continued Arsenal's nightmare of a season with a 2-1 win over the Gunners and have pretty much put to bed their chance of relegation.  Bournemouth nicked a point off Leicester at home but the Cherries were already counting the three points before an incredible  Riyad Mahrez free kick in the 97th minute leveled things; after Bournemouth's late game antics against Newcastle the week before, don't look for any sympathy for me.  Spurs were Magpie-friendly with a steady 2-0 win over Huddersfield.  The 0-0 draw between Stoke and Southampton highlighted the finishing problems that plague most of the relegation-threatened teams; the draw was helpful to Newcastle since neither picked up the three points.

Totally conflicted as I watched the heartbreaker of a match at Selhurst Park.  With Crystal Palace shockingly up 2-0 on Man United, all I could see was a key relegation competitor getting an unexpected three points.  As Man United scored their first goal, I was making a deal with myself that, even though I really like Crystal Palace and don't have much love for Mourinho, rooting for a draw would be acceptable. Of course, once Lukaku leveled things at 76 minutes, the Red Devils sensed the blood in the water.  Sure enough, there was Nemenja Matic stuffing the game winner in at 91 minutes.  Jeff H will be thrilled as Man United get a second straight YouTubeableMoment (you might say it was an auto Matic pick).  Great moment in the telecast when the camera focused in on the raucous Eagle fans reveling in the 2-0 lead; the announcer quickly pointed out the fans would have been as vocal even if the score was 0-3.

Probably should mention that Man City handled Chelsea 1-0 at home.  Conte did many of the same things that Benitez did to slow Man City down and got the same result.  Commentators however suggested it was one thing for Newcastle to take a defensive approach but an entirely different thing for a top team like Chelsea to do so.  Maybe, but protecting your goal differential in a tight table makes sense to me.


BFS Run-in Predictor

Maybe the definition of the run-in should be when I feel like there are few enough games left that it's not an overwhelming task to set up an EPL prediction spreadsheet.  Which means we are at the run-in because I just finished spreadsheet.  Simple enough to do, just assign win, lose or draw for each match.  I ran a few scenarios myself then, looked at the 538 match-by-match projections.  Happy to say there were no matches where I had one side winning and 538 the other.  However, they don't project any matches as draws so there were some differences based on that.  In some cases I saw a close match and they saw a clear winner; many others though they saw as close too.

Some notable trends emerged as I ran through the possibilities:

1. Man City will win the EPL (effing brilliant Captain Obvious)
2. In all the scenarios, Man United, Liverpool and Tottenham get the other three CL spots; Liverpool beat out Spurs every time but Man United finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th depending on how they do against Liverpool and Man City
3. West Brom go down every time (see comment on 1)
4. The last two relegation spots usually go to Stoke or Southampton but West Ham and, gulp, Newcastle occasionally pop up; Swansea, Huddersfield and Crystal Palace don't show up in the bottom three but are never more than a few points from the drop zone, meaning one wrong projection and they are in the mix

I'll be updating with actual results so we'll see how this goes.


European Stuff

The EPL sent two teams onto the Champions League quarterfinals as Man City and Liverpool easily completed the second legs of their series.  Tottenham was looking pretty good at 1-0 before Juventus slipped in two quick tallies at 64 and 67 minutes.  A disappointing result, especially given they had the lead, but hard to find too much fault with their effort.  Man United and Chelsea have their chances next week.  Arsenal woke up from their nightmare long enough to take a 2-0 win in the first leg of their Europa Cup round of 16 tie with AC Milan; with the second leg at the Emirates, the Gunners look good to advance.


Union Top of the Table

What the kool keepers are wearing - Photo Daniel Gajdamowicz

Jeff H has provided a solid summary of the 2-0 win over the Revolution in last week's comment section.  The cold water people will point out that the Revolution aren't expected to set the league on fire and that the Union played more than 60 minutes a man up but could only score twice.  True enough but there were some positive takeaways.  First, we might not be the slowest team any more. Trusty chased down Agudelo and made a tackle that, if not properly executed, is probably a red card.  And Cory Burke, signed from Bethlehem, was a revelation as well.  They probably will play even better with Dockal in the #10 role.  Downside - CJ missed a lot of chances and not sure that our fullback core is that strong or deep.   Did you notice the Andre Blake's neckware to combat the frigid conditions? Either that or he was in a car accident(see photo).  Didn't hinder his performance and he was typically solid between the posts.


Keyest Match of the Year?

Newcastle take on Southampton at St. James' Park on Saturday at 10; the TV people understand the importance as it's on NBCSN.  A win for either side would vastly change their relegation outlooks.  A loss would not be crushing but would be a lost opportunity.  So many Magpie people are talking about the need for - and likelihood of - three points; indeed a win would be a massive step away from relegation but I'm not looking for more than a draw here.

That match comes on after a cracking start to the weekend - Man United vs Liverpool at Old Trafford (7:30 NBCSN).  Liverpool probably need to win if they hope to finish second but even a loss likely won't seriously damage their chances of a top four finish.  Even a draw gives Man United a slight advantage in the race for second.

Most of the other matches feature top table teams versus relegation challengers, which means I have no use for underdogs this weekend.  So Man City (vs Stoke - Monday at 4 pm), Chelsea (vs Crystal Palace - 12:30 Saturday), Tottenham (vs Bournemouth - noon on Sunday) and Arsenal (vs Watford - 9:30 on Sunday), please take care of business.  I'll throw Burnley (7th in the table!) in this group and hope they can beat West Ham.

We do have Huddersfield - Swansea on Saturday at 10 am (NBC Gold).  This strategic rooting is hard to sort out sometimes.  A draw isn't awful but since Swansea are the more likely competition with Newcastle to stay up, I think I prefer Huddersfield to win.  Everton and Brighton are both just about over the line but a win pretty much seals the deal for one of those teams.

Btw, those odd starting times on Sunday and Monday come about because we spring forward earlier than the English.

The MLS, in its infinite wisdom, has elected to field a league with 23 teams.  The more mathematically inclined may notice that this is an odd number (it's strange too) which means one MLS team is idle even with a full schedule.  Between that and Concacaf Champions League action, the early season schedule is very choppy.  In short, the Union are idle this weekend. 

Don't forget Champions League and Europa Cup action midweek.  Check your local listings as they say but pretty sure Fox Sports (1 or 2 or others) will have the matches.

Mediocrity Will Out

Dan Gosling cuts the deficit in half

Very strange to see Newcastle up on Bournemouth 2-0 at half time of Saturday's match.  Not that they didn't deserve it but a shock nonetheless.  In response to the idle question on my part as to how many minutes this season had the Magpies enjoyed a two goal lead, BFS Director of Operations Research Dennis quickly provided the answer - 26 minutes (18 and 8 in the two matches against West Ham).  But Newcastle with a two goal lead is like me with a birdie or two on the front nine; things will even out and I will not break 90.  Sure enough, the Magpies surrendered goals in the 80th and 89th minute to snatch a draw from the jaws of victory.  In fact, they were in serious danger of coughing up a third goal and getting no points.  Somewhat galling were the missed opportunities that could have made it 3-0 or even 4-0 which did indeed come back to haunt them.  Post match, Dennis provided proper perspective; standing on the first tee I would have gladly taken a 2-2 draw and he's right.

There were draws for others in the relegation fight as well - Stoke went 1-1 with Leicester and Southampton 1-1 with Burnley.  Brighton and Huddersfield got big boosts with wins over Swansea and West Brom respectively.  Crystal Palace looked ready to nick a point off Tottenham but Harry Kane's late header scotched that plan.  Not a terrible set of results for Newcastle, just would have been better with three points instead of one.  The 538 prediction has the Magpies down to just an 18% chance of being relegated, the lowest I can remember since I started checking it.

Liverpool "hammered" West Ham 4-1 while Manchester United came back from 0-1 to get a 2-1 win over Chelsea in a very entertaining match. Jeff H, here's what you've been waiting for - Jesse Lingard as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  A more than worthy game winner.  The weekend matches leave Chelsea on the outside looking in at the top four but just six points separate 2nd through 5th so this thing ain't over yet.


Cloak of Inevitability

Announcer Peter Drury was referring to the result of the Arsenal-Man City midweek league match after the Citizens went up 3-0 when he uttered this phrase but it may apply to their season more broadly.  With the EPL win over Arsenal, they maintain the 16-point lead; any combination of 15 points earned by Man City or dropped by Man United in the final 10 games clinches the title.   Over the weekend, they easily captured the Carabao League Cup (thrashing Arsenal in that one as well). And, in Champions League, they bring a 4-1 lead to the second leg of their tie with Basel; the quarter finals beckon.


The Trials of VAR

Snow globe dream for Llorente

Those who tuned in for the Tottenham-Rochdale saw an, ahem, interesting match, which is not the same as a great match.  First, it was like watching soccer in a snow globe.  Precipitation was heavy enough that you could follow the passes in the tracks of snow.  Btw, English weather forecasting tip - if the pitch is lined in blue rather than white, expect snow.  Second, Spurs blew open a tight contest (1-1 at half) with five second half goals.  Killed the suspense but we suspect that Fernando Llorente's confidence really needed that hat trick. But mostly what people talked about was "VARmageddon" (as one pundit labeled it) - the oversized role that video assistant referee played in the first half.

The reviews were mostly unkind though I did find some willing to defend the system.  A partial list of the VAR decisions includes:

- ruling out Tottenham goal due to foul by Llorente
- not awarding a PK after Moura was possibly fouled in the box
- changing a free kick to a PK as the holding on Trippier continued into the box
- disallowing Son's PK due to feinting after the run-up was completed

VAR was also consulted on all the goals that did count.  With the possible exception of the non-call on Moura, the consensus seems to be that VAR did result in the right decision.  Note that with respect to penalty kicks, the laws state that play is stopped and restarted with an indirect free kick, regardless of whether a goal is scored, when there is "feinting to kick the ball once the kicker has completed the run-up( feinting in the run-up is permitted)."  The rules specifically say the kicker should be cautioned (i.e be shown the yellow card).  Sure looked like Son got to the ball, then stopped. And even though players from both sides encroached into the penalty area, Son's offense is the more serious so the correct restart was indeed the indirect free kick coming out.

No, the ire seems directed more at the length of time required for the VAR process to play out.  To some extent these complaints are legitimate; the worst was how long it took to revise the free kick to a PK.  This feels like another case of the perfect being the enemy of the good.  The stated purpose of VAR is to correct "clear and obvious errors" not to eliminate all incorrect calls.  If it takes you more than 30 seconds of reviewing the tape to determine if it is a clear and obvious error, by definition, it is not.

However, to those on the fainting couch about how VAR will be the destruction of football as we know it, please take a deep breath.  First, it is a work in progress.  I do agree that they'll need to learn to make the decisions quicker but that may just be a matter of experience.  Second, the protests against stoppages in the flow of play ring a bit hollow.  Most of the decisions will be after a goal has been scored.  The time spent primping, preening and completing choreographed celebrations should allow for enough time for the review to take place. Sometimes the review actually takes place as play continues.  But mostly, it's not like stoppages never occur.  Sometimes it is for real injuries but how often is the game stopped for imaginary blows to the face or other fake injuries?  The game was not perfect or pure before VAR.


Baloney Again? (with apologies to Mark Knopfler)

Hope is supposed to spring eternal but sometimes it just doesn't feel that way.  The Union season will kick off on Saturday with a home match against the Revolution with generally low expectations.  The team has added some players that could make a difference, including forward David Accam, midfielder Borek Dockal and defender Auston Trusty.  We'll get the obvious line out of the way early - who doesn't want a trusty defender.  But seriously, they do come highly recommended, especially Accam and Dockal.  Still most of the projections don't sound too good.

Quotes like "haven't done enough to do that [make the playoffs]" (World Soccer Talk) and "hard to see this club making the playoffs" (NBC Sports) litter the landscape.  The preview at mlssoccer.com has them finishing 11th (last) in the Eastern Conference, though that was before the Dockal signing.  ESPN offered a more positive tone saying the Union have "one of the most attractive forward lines in MLS and could make some noise in the East."  Doesn't say what that noise is though.  Of all the previews I read, this was my favorite.  Great detail on the players and suggests some of the upside of developing young players.  He has the Union finishing anywhere from 4th to 8th but believes the most likely scenario is "about seventh in the East, just outside the playoffs, again."  Yeah, baloney again.


Chester Clinch Third Straight

It's early April in the Football Manager calendar and Chester have clinched their third straight Premier League title with a 6-2 win over Burnley.  As the league title looked pretty inevitable, our attentions have been much more on Champions League and the FA Cup.  Chances in the CL took a bit of a hit with a 1-1 home draw against Atletico Madrid.  Neither side generated much in the way of good scoring opportunities and it was a close match.  But heading to Vicente Calderon Stadium (my game has no way of knowing they built a new stadium) tied and having surrendered an away goal does not bode well for our chances.


We Might Walk Alone

Newcastle have Liverpool at Anfield in the featured 12:30 NBC match except that for some reason, it's on NBCSN.  There's no reason to expect any points from this match but I do remember that Newcastle won [drew] this fixture in May 2016 even as they were heading down to the Championship division.  Grabbing a point would be awesome.

Tottenham - Huddersfield is the 10 am Saturday NBCSN match but I'll probably go with the alternative Southampton-Stoke City relegation matchup at the same time on CNBC.  Another relegation-relevant match at 10 is Swansea - West Ham but you'll need NBC Gold to watch that.  Having a little trouble seeing myself up at 7:30 on Saturday to catch Burnley - Everton; with neither relegation or European football in their apparent futures, it's not clear how compelling this match will be.

Sunday's televised matches may provoke a little more curiousity.  At 8:30 Brighton host Arsenal; very interested to see if the Gunners pick themselves up from consecutive schoolings by Man City and deal with an opponent they should be able to beat.  Certainly Newcastle fans would appreciate that.  The later match is Man City hosting Chelsea; interested to see if Chelsea rebounds from the loss to Man United.  If they are not careful, they could be five points out of the last Champions League spot.  The TV schedule concludes Monday with another match at Selhurst Park - Crystal Palace hosting Man United.

Plenty of MLS action to watch, including the Union opener on Saturday at 7 pm on PHL-17.  Looks like it will be a toasty 35 degrees by the end.  Not my turn to use the season tickets so Jeff and Graham will have to bundle up for that one.

Don't forget the second leg of the Champions League ties as well.  Tuesday has Liverpool-Porto and PSG - Real Madrid while Wednesday has Tottenham - Juventus and Man City -Basel.  The Liverpool and Man City ties don't look all that competitive but the other two should be excellent.

Man, I gotta fit all this in around the IAAF World Championships.