The Run In

We've been hearing the pundits talk about the "run in," as in Team X is getting key players back just in time for the run in or Team Y's recent form has been terrible as we approach the run in.  Okay, we get the basic concept; the run in is the final stretch of matches heading to the end of the season.  But Michael B and I keep asking when exactly does it start?  Lacking information to the contrary, we have made the executive decision that the run in starts with the games beginning after this international break (i.e. this weekend).  How is your side positioned as they head into the run in?


Mission Accomplished?

Christian Pulisic - The face of US soccer for years to come?

 Based on expectations for the USMNT heading into the two WC qualifiers we have to say yes.  So why is there this nagging feeling that we came up a bit short?  Certainly the Honduras match couldn't have gone better.  Aside from three points, the 6-0 wiped out a poor goal differential which could matter down the road.  Certainly that was the best attacking football we've seen from the US in a while.  Great to see the backs making deep runs, signalling the clear intention to step up the attack.  Maybe not a great match to watch from a dramatic perspective, as the result wasn't in doubt but satisfying nonetheless given its importance in the WC qualifying process.

Panama on the road was always going to be tougher.  What a hack fest!  Maybe the ref could have called a few more fouls on Panama but I thought he was basically consistent in letting the players mug each other play.  That to me was a slight advantage to Panama, who's defense is already difficult to break down.  So when Dempsey scored in the 39th minute (check out Pulisic's work in the box to set up that goal, this week's YouTubeAbleMoment) my hopes soared that we would take all three points.  Panama would have to open up, the game would be more about attacking, which would favor the US.  Off course, all that went out the window when the US allowed a soft goal on a throw-in less than five minutes later.  In the end, you have to say the result was a fair one but those extra two points seemed tantalizing close.

The Soccer Power Index says the US chance of qualifying after the Panama draw is now 69%.  I forget what it was before entering the break but it's certainly improved.  Still doesn't allow for any more big mistakes, like say, draws at home versus Panama or Trinidad and Tobago.


CONMEBOL Qualifying

All the South American teams played two matches during the break.  Colombia was probably the biggest winner.  The six points from victories over Bolivia and Ecuador catapulted them from a completely out of the money 6th place to a strong 2nd.  Brazil also got six points and are just about home and dry.  Biggest losers were Ecuador and Argentina.  Ecuador got no points and fell from 3rd to 6th.  Argentina got the important win against Chile (disappointing match to watch for me as a neutral) but lost 0-2 to Bolivia as Messi began the first of a four match ban for his verbal abuse against an assistant referee.  So after briefly rising to third, Argentina are now back in 5th, which would require a play-in series against Oceania's first place side.  Uruguay also got zero points but only fell to 3rd in the table.  Four matches to go in the qualifying so it should be interesting as at least one pretty decent side will be out entirely and another will be forced into a play-in situation.

There is a veritable s***storm about the Messi suspension.  Start with the fact that there was no on-field action by the referee.  Abusive language (and gestures for that matter) are grounds for sending off.  If it was so bad, why wasn't Messi sent off?  The length of the suspension is drawing some attention too.  I don't mean to defend Messi but I'm curious as to what additional information convinced FIFA to level the suspension.  Argentina is crying foul and claiming sinister politics are involved.  Politics in soccer?  I'd be shocked.  Shocked.


The View from Europe

Only got to see England-Lithuania, a relatively sleepy 2-0 win for the Lions, who have yet to concede a goal in qualifying.  Iceland got a 2-0 win over Kosovo and is clearly in the hunt for at least a spot in the playoff round.  Netherlands lost 0-2 to Bulgaria and fired their manager; their prospects aren't so great.  A pretty good weekend for Great Britain (how many countries are in this country?) what with England and Scotland and Northern Ireland winning and Wales getting a draw with Ireland.


Shades of Ted Lasso

At a press conference to introduce him as a new member of the Chicago Fire, a journalist asked Bastian Schweinsteiger if he thought he could help the Fire win the World Cup. Details here.  I wasn't aware that Chicago was even bidding to become its own country.  Good on the German to be patient with the reporter and help rephrase the question.  Yeah, we still have a ways to go.


Managerial Honeymoon

We've discussed the trend of relegation-threatened clubs sacking their managers.  This article, the outline of a chapter in a book we'll be checking out, suggests that you will see results, but only in the short term.  Their data indicate that there is typically a marked improvement over the first six or seven matches under the new manager but then results settle back, sometimes to a level even worse than they were before the change.  Good news for Leicester as they still have a few games left in the honeymoon but maybe not so much for Swansea.  


Break's Over

How about a Merseyside derby to get things rolling on Saturday at 7:30?  Arsenal-Man City at 11 on Sunday looks pretty good too.  First place Chelsea host Crystal Palace at 10 on Saturday morning so the chase pack is not likely to gain any ground this weekend.  Tottenham are away to Burnley and would do well to not get complacent going into Turf Moor.  Big relegation match on Sunday morning between Swansea and Middlesbrough (8:30 NBCSN).

There's also midweek action with matches on Tuesday and Wednesday.  I haven't seen the TV schedule for any of these contests.  Most interesting fixture looks like Chelsea-Man City at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday.  Man United-Everton on Tuesday is probably worth a look.  For those who want a little relegation flavor in their matches, Hull-Middlesbrough might fit the bill.

The Championship Division has the same deal - matches on the weekend and mid-week.  Newcastle have two home matches against Wigan and Burton Albion, 23rd and 21st in the table.  Anything less than six points here and I'm back on the ledge.  Brighton and Huddersfield also have two home matches each against mid-table sides; they'll both be favored to take all the points.

The Union return to action Saturday night at 7 against the only team in the East with fewer points, DC United.  Need to start picking up three points on occasion but this road match might not be the place; but they better get at least a draw.  Red Bulls are off to a decent start and play Houston on the road.

Let the run in begin!