One Step Up and No Steps Back

A 0-0 draw at Birmingham Saturday should have meant one point gained but two points lost for Newcastle but somehow both Huddersfield and Brighton managed to lose their matches.  Huddersfield went down 0-4 to Bristol (ouch, that will leave a mark) while Brighton fell at Leeds 0-2.  The latter is not a huge upset and Leeds should now be on the radar as Gary Monk has his squad just two points back of Huddersfield.

Perez shoots while Ritchie waits to pounce on the rebound
Photo: The Chronicle

Following on-line it seemed that the Magpies had the run of play (65% possession, 17-9 on shots, 3-1 in shots on target) but simply could not put the ball in the net.  Wait, that's not entirely accurate.  Matt Ritchie did put the ball in the net just before the halftime break but the goal was disallowed for offside.  The videos I could find were inconclusive; the supposedly neutral Sky Sports commentators thought the goal should have stood.  Whatever.  Shouldn't have been that close to begin with.  But the good news is that Newcastle are top of the table by one over Brighton and seven over Huddersfield with home matches against Wigan and Burton Albion right after the international break.  I'll stay in off the ledge for the moment.


A Corrosive Defeat

We haven't discussed the Arsene Wenger drama but the issue basically comes down to the question posed in this week's  Musical Accompaniment provided by the Clash - should he stay or should he go.  It's kind of like the Philadelphia Eagles under Andy Reid.  Is it better to always be in the hunt but never win the big one or have a usually mediocre - or worse - team that once in a blue moon picks off a championship? Arsenal have made the Champions League (top four finish) for like a hundred straight years under Wenger but other than an FA Cup or two, haven't collected much hardware.  Though the issue would be simmering even if Arsenal were in the top four, the possibility that they won't make that this year has the topic going full boil.

Which brings us to Saturday's match between West Brom and Arsenal.  With planes flying overhead alternately urging Wenger to leave or stay, Arsenal did not have a good day.  Petr Cech got hurt.  The Gunners allowed two goals off of corners.  Then there was the clusterf*** goal where Cech's replacement Ospina made two mistakes and had to watch the ball roll between the legs of James McClean (who was way offside but not affecting play) and into the goal, clearly this week's YouTubeableMoment (fast forward to match time 54:45, just under halfway through the video).  As the players exited the field after Arsenal's 1-3 defeat, announcer Jon Champion labeled the result "a corrosive defeat."  Maybe a bit of poetic license there; West Brom are no pushovers, especially not at home.  But the timing and nature of the loss couldn't have been worse.

At the top Chelsea needed a late goal to get all three points at Stoke while Tottenham did their thing, which is to get a 2-0 lead, look like they're cruising, surrender a goal, then hang on.  The much anticipated clash between Man City and Liverpool, on the whole, did not disappoint but I was expecting more scoring than the 1-1 draw we saw.  Good end-to-end action and plenty of snarl.  Referee Michael Oliver had a fun day sorting out when to call or not call a penalty.  He got a few of the no calls right, including one that could have easily been mistaken for a trip from behind by the defender.  But he probably missed two on one play by Klavan and Milner against Aguero and Sterling.  He might have missed Wijnaldum being fouled by Toure.  But then he got crap from the announcers for the one he did call against Clichy on Firmino.  Not sure what they saw, Clichy charged with a high boot; he got the ball yes then finished by clattering into Firmino.  Was it a penalty? For me, yes.  Both managers seemed okay with a a draw.  Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal were probably happy too.

A few more points collected at the bottom than I foresaw as Leicester and Crystal Palace both picked up their third straight wins.  Leicester are now six clear and Crystal Palace four clear of the relegation zone.  Sunderland also nicked a point from Burnley but the Black Cats remain ensconced at the bottom.  Swansea, Hull and Middlesbrough got nothing so heading into the break Swansea are three clear with Hull, Middlesbrough and Sunderland in the bottom three.  Two interesting matches right out of the break will be Swansea-Middlesbrough and Hull-Middlesbrough.


Who Are Those Guys?

Clearly not the same crew I saw at Talen Energy Stadium.  The Union looked rudderless against Orlando though at one point they seemed to be on their way to another draw.  Seemed like a lot of passes got blocked, intercepted or were simply off target.  Onyewu and Fabinho, but mostly Onyewu got badly beaten on the second goal.  To be fair, the Union stayed in it to the end and Ilsinho hit the post in stoppage time which could have salvaged a 2-2 draw.  For a more in-depth assessment of what went wrong check out this analysis from The Philly Soccer Page.  Phrases like "switched off" and "sleepy time" hint at some of the problems.


Step Away from the Statistics

I once worked with a guy who didn't understand the fuss about drunk driving.  "There are more car accidents involving sober drivers," he would rail.  After taking a deep breath, I tried to explain that's not how you assess the risk of drunk driving.  The question is whether you're more likely to get into an accident if you're impaired.  And the data show that the probability of being in an accident does in fact go up with impairment.  At a blood alcohol content (BAC) of .08% (the legal limit) the likelihood of being in an accident is almost triple.  I forget whether he changed his view.

Anyway, I raise this because I came across this article from fivethirtyeight about how the first attempt at statistical analysis of soccer set England down the wrong path for years.  This guy, Charles Repp, meticulously collected data on his home side Swindon Town.  After poring over the information, he noticed that most goals came after plays involving three or fewer passes.  That became the mantra - get the ball down the field and shoot - don't focus on possession or passing.  And a lot of English managers, all the way up to the national team, bought into that philosophy.  Ah but here's the problem; soccer plays that involve three or fewer passes are like sober drivers - there are way more of them.  If you look at the probability of scoring, research shows that it goes up as you string together more passes.  What's the legal BAC for working with statistics?


The International Break

Sitting at the bottom of the hex with no points after two matches, the upcoming World Cup qualifiers at home vs Honduras (Friday kickoff at 10:50 pm on FS1. Really? 10:50?) and away to Panama (Tuesday kickoff at 10 pm on beInSports. Really? 10pm?) are probably more critical than anybody would prefer.  As many have pointed out, the ten game process does allow for some slip-ups but the US may have used all of its allotment.  The consensus seems to be that we need four points from these two matches.  Clearly the less nerve wracking approach would be to beat Honduras in San Jose on Friday and get a draw in Panama.

A recent rash of injuries means that Arena won't necessarily have his first choices out there.  But there is more depth to the squad so it's not necessarily a disaster.  I'd rather have Bobby Wood up top than Jozy Altidore, Fabian Johnson at right back over Orozco, and DeAndre Yedlin over Villafana at left back but these are capable players.  Both Clint Dempsey and Tim Howard are expected to start.  I wouldn't mind seeing Stoke City's Geoff Cameron get some time on the back line.  As with Newcastle, let's not head out to ledge until it's absolutely necessary.

World Cup qualifying also continues in Europe (March 24-26) and South America (March 23 and 28).  You'll be able so sample some of these matches on TV as indicated by these TV listings.  I'll probably check in on Uruguay-Brazil (Thursday at 7 pm on BeInSports) though the more interesting match that night is Argentina-Chile (7:30 if you get beIn Sports en Espanol).  Brazil and Uruguay are looking good for qualifying at 1-2 in the standings whereas Chile holds a one point lead over Argentina for the last automatic qualifier.  Other matches that might get a look are a Rooney-less England vs Lithuania at noon on Sunday (FS2) and Ecuador-Colombia at 5 pm on Tuesday (BIS).