Home (Field Advantage) for the Holidays

Hope everyone is enjoying the holidays.  BFS staff held a three day long year-end meeting, which included Christmas dinner featuring possibly the best roast beast ever cooked plus a healthy dose of the Boxing Day Matches.  Maybe the results could have been a bit better (both Aston Villa and Newcastle lost), but then we realized that 1) we had the day off, 2) we were hanging out with family, 3) there was leftover ham, turkey and roast beef so we really had no reason to complain.  


To the Data

The meeting was not all fun and games.  It just seemed that way.  We took some "deep dives" into some web sites to research some questions that have been on our minds.  First, you will recall a few weeks ago that Dennis took issue with the NBC commentators waxing poetic about the passing skills of Aston Villa's Carlos Sanchez; Dennis contended that it was not a particularly strong aspect of his (Sanchez, not Dennis) game.  To the data.

According to stats kept by WhoScored.com, Sanchez completes 84.9% of his passes.  That sounds good except when you find out he's not even in the top third in the EPL - he ranks 139th of 477 players.  If we exclude players who have fewer appearances than the EPL average, Sanchez ranks 76 out of 288, or just outside the top quartile.  So while Sanchez isn't perhaps as bad a passer as Dennis thought, he certainly isn't anywhere near the top of the league and the announcers might want to save their superlatives for someone like Arsenal's Mathieu Flamini, who leads the league at 91.7%.  Everyone who guessed Flamini as the top percentage passer raise your hands.  That's what I thought.  Mind you we're not saying this defines the best passer.  We might argue that assists or key passes per game might be the more relevant statistic; Chelsea's Cesc Fiberglass Fabregas leads, by a lot, in both of those categories.

During one of the Boxing Day matches, Dennis professed some doubt about the home field advantage in the EPL.   Never having looked at the issue in detail, I was agnostic.  To the data.

Turns out it's real and it's spectacular.  At least based on what we found for the EPL 2013-2014 season.  Our analysis is based on the difference in points earned at home vs points earned on the road.  On average, teams earned about 58% of their points at home and 42% on the road - or a 16% increase.  In absolute terms, the home field advantage works out to about 4.2 points per year if you compare the point differential between points earned at home and half of a team's total points (i.e. West Ham had 40 points - 24 at home, 16 on the road - and if there was no home field advantage we would have expected them to get 20 points at home and on the road so they are a plus 4).  On a per game basis, that's about 0.22 points per home game. Taking the per game improvement as a percentage of expected home points (half of total points), we get an average improvement of 17% for the league (i.e. West Ham earned 4 additional points at home from the expected 20, so they were 20% better than expected at home).  That's our position for the moment - home field advantage improves points earned by 16-17%.  Stay tuned for additional research.


This Just In

Jose Mourinho is complaining about the refs.  Granted the BFS called on Fabregas was probably incorrect but I hope he gets fined for this one as he made it more personal about the referee.  And it's not like others haven't had issues with referees.  Aston Villa had their fourth player this season shown a straight red on Sunday and only one was deserved, plus they were denied a stone cold penalty shot on Friday, but Paul Lambert has handled it much more diplomatically.  Highlights from Mourinho's postmatch interview below.

Staying With Chester

I decided not to take the Everton job in Football Manager.  I'm already falling behind real time and taking the reins at Everton would mean detailed reviews of coaching staff, scouts, and players, learning the positions and tactics that work best with the given personal, and figuring out what to do in the upcoming transfer window.  So from a real world perspective, you don't have time for a video game job change - #firstworldproblems.  Took an easy 3-1 home win against Blackburn but stumbled in a 1-1 away draw vs last place Huddersfield (conceded a PK in the 80th minute); still sitting in third.  No regrets but I confess that I did save a copy of the game at the point of the Everton offer to maybe some day play out my alternate video game future.


Pardew Set to Depart


By the time you read this, Alan Pardew will likely be at the helm for Crystal Palace.  A curious move in some respects, leaving a relatively secure club for one that is in a serious relegation struggle.  And don't forget Tony Pulis left CP at the beginning of the season essentially because ownership wasn't willing to spend money so it's not like Pardew is going to see a major change there.  A key factor - Pardew may be tired of the raving lunatic angry Newcastle fans; it is really hard to understate the depth of their dislike of the man.  Reading some of the fan blogs, I was almost tempted to offer some factual counterpoints to the emotional diatribes but realized they are probably, well, raving lunatics and I don't need to step into that space.

Pardew may also feel like he has chance to be a hero by saving Palace from relegation.  Maybe he's just trying to win Rebecca Lowe's heart.  Whatever the case, the zoo-like atmosphere at Newcastle will continue, this time in the guise of trying to find a permanent replacement.  Many are calling it a win-win situation - Pardew leaves on his own terms and Newcastle is rid of him.  Maybe, but it could be lose-lose - Pardew doesn't save Crystal Palace from relegation and when Newcastle looks at those interested in taking the position they find out how far their stock has fallen under Mike Ashley's regime.


The Twelve Days of EPL

Three games through the four game holiday marathon.  After Thursday's matches, we'll post an evaluation of how teams of interest fared during this period.  We'll be using the same scale as last year - reposted here so you can start to make your own assessments.

	From Paul McCartney - "Simply having a wonderful Christmastime"
	Santa obviously read your list very carefully
	Nice enough but you didn't get the Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time you really wanted
	Ties are a nice gift but how many do you really need?
	You may have been naughtier than you realized

New Year's line up has Stoke at Man United at 7:45 and Tottenham hosting Chelsea at 12:30.  Last I heard, there is no featured 10 am match, as NBCSN will try an experiment with live look-ins on each of the eight matches in progress.  I'll be taking in Newcastle v Burnley from St. James' Park on ExtraTime and expect that Dennis will be doing the same with the Aston Villa v Crystal Palace match.  Southampton vs Arsenal is another tasty 10 am match up.  Will probably dvr the experiment to see how it played out.

Happy New Year to all.

Bloodied But Unbowed

Uh, not exactly.

Steven Taylor suffered a nasty cut when he collided with the post attempting to clear a ball off the line.  Jon Champion was impressed that the center back was able to continue; "bloodied but unbowed" were his words.  Too bad that didn't apply to Newcastle more generally.  The Magpies dodged the blow several times in Sunday's derby with Sunderland but in the end - the 90th minute to be exact - conceded a goal and fell to their bitter rivals again, 1-0.


 The match had all the passion you would expect in a derby, if by passion you mean senseless fouls (30) and yellow cards (8) early and often.  First half might have been a slight edge to the Black Cats.  Second half Newcastle had the run of play but every time they threatened, the shot was right at the keeper, like he had a bulls-eye painted on his jersey.  You can't accuse Pardew of playing conservative - he sent on Cisse in the 75th minute, replacing Tiote.  It did result in better offensive pressure but in the end, left them exposed on the game winning counter attack.

I heard some talk that it's unlucky to lose in the last minute that way.  For me, this glass was half empty.  Newcastle was lucky not to be down 0-2 and that "game-winning" goal could have easily been the nail in the coffin.  They didn't lack for opportunities (14 shots, 7 on goal) but the finishing wasn't there.  Is that luck or lack (of skill)?  The winter silly season (January transfer window) is nearly upon us; is there a striker out there to help and maybe another center back for some depth?


There Will Be Blood

Not a good day to be a center back.  In the Liverpool - Arsenal match,  Martin Skrtel's skull was split open by Giroud's cleat (accidentally) in the second half but after the physio's stapled the wound (I'm not making that up - see the picture), like Taylor, he was able to continue.  But the Slovakian saw a better ending.  Skrtel tied the match in dramatic fashion in the 97 minute with, wait for it, a stunning header.  Guess the bandage didn't affect his aim. 

This match was great theater.  Coutinho for the early Liverpool lead, Debuchy leveling in first half stoppage time.  Giroud gave the Gunners the lead in the 64th minute.  Liverpool had chances but their fate seemed sealed when Borini got two yellows in a short space, leaving his side down a man.  But there would be stoppage time - nine minutes thanks to Skrtel's injury.  And since was it was his time, why not make the best of it?  Seemed like it could have been a derby.


Agbonlahor and Dennis Both See Red

I am a little sad that this Sportcenter commercial is rapidly becoming my mantra for the Villa season.  For the third time (though Steve would argue it is only the second), a Villa player was shown an undeserved red.  Unlike the other two times, there is NO WAY to argue that this one was deserved.  Agbonlahor went in a little hard on a challenge and kicked the United player in the ankle as seen in this week's YouTubeable Moment.  That's it.  No raised hands, no aggression, not even a real slide tackle, in the midst of a very clean game.  This call was so egregious that, for the first time, I broke the sacred etiquette of soccer viewing and texted Steve without checking to see if he was even watching.  The card has since been rescinded and the ref was not assigned for a match on Sunday, which does ease the pain.  

Fortunately, even the worst of calls was not enough to ruin the day.  Any match that starts with Tom Cleverly ineligible is a good thing in my book and it is a shame that his 1 match card accumulation ban overlapped with his "can't play against a parent club" ban.  About 30 minutes in, Benteke did Benteke things - excellent settle off his chest, two touches to wrong foot a defender, then curl a beauty into the upper left corner - to take a 1-0 lead and my hopes for both the match and the season soared.  United equalized just after half and Agbonlahor's card came in the 65th minute.  Villa amazingly seemed to play better down a man and certainly could have stolen all 3 points right at the end when an excellent chance rolled just past a wide open Benteke. Another solid all around performance could be the spring board to a mid-table finish.......or just attract the vulturous other teams needing to beef up their rosters come January.  If this squad is intact come February, I like are chances of staying up.  If both Delph and Vlaar are gone, and rumors suggest they are being targeted by multiple teams, we could be in some deep trouble.


Meanwhile, Back at the Ranch

As expected Chelsea (2-0 over a surprisingly stubborn Stoke City) and Manchester City (3-0 over Crystal Palace despite missing key players) widened the gap at the top of the table.  West Ham kept the bubble machine busy with a 2-0 win over Leicester, maintaining their hold on fourth.  Tottenham had their hands full with Burnley but ground out a 2-1 win to stay within striking distance of the fourth.   And Southampton did in fact use Everton to get healthy, slapping a 3-0 defeat on the Toffees.  Didn't see the match so I don't know if the score flatters the Saints or not but that had to be encouraging for them.  Shorter Shane Long: "We're not dead yet."


Boxing Day and More

Friday, Sunday, Thursday (New Year's Day) - everybody has three matches in seven days.  A chance to see how deep your squad really is.

On Boxing Day (Friday), NBCSN has Chelsea-West Ham at 7:45 (though winning, the Blues haven't been as dominating lately - can't wait to see if the Hammers have something to say), Manchester United - Newcastle at 10 (ugh - won't even be watching live as BFS staff will be meeting to celebrate one year anniversary and will be live streaming Swansea-Aston Villa) and Arsenal-QPR at 12:30.  Sunday has Tottenham-Man United at 7 am (Michael B - wanna watch live?), Southampton-Chelsea at 9:05 and Newcastle-Everton at 11:15.  New Year's Day goes Stoke-Man United at 7:45, Southampton-Arsenal at 10 and Tottenham-Chelsea at 12:30.  Three fine days of viewing.

Looking at the home sides, hard to say what to expect from Newcastle.  Man United looks like a tough match but the Magpies did win at Old Trafford last year.  Off of recent form, Everton haven't looked so tough but I keep waiting for them to snap out of it; Newcastle might be their chance.  They end the holidays with a home match against Burnley; a loss in that one will raise the "sack Pardew" din to at least earlier levels, if not higher.  Four points would be awesome, three not too bad but frankly, I'm afraid that after the holidays,we'll be back to talking about relegation again; that shouldn't be happening with this team.

Aston Villa's task is somewhat less daunting.  The trip to Wales may not be likely to bring a result but home matches with Sunderland and Crystal Palace are.  This is a great opportunity to put relegation well back in the rear view mirror.  Six points is not out of the question.

Hope you don't get a lump of coal in your stocking, or its EPL equivalent, getting shut out in your holiday matches.

Watching Arsenal-Newcastle vs A Colonoscopy

It's a tougher call than you might think.

Historically this is an awful match up for the Magpies and Saturday's 4-1 thumping was no different.  At least during a colonoscopy you're anesthetized for the most painful part and you wake up feeling pretty good, ready to eat a big meal.  Plus, for most of us it happens once every ten years, unlike this fixture, which we must endure twice a year.

Like a colonoscopy, nobody really wants to hear the details.  I will say that you can't put too much blame on replacement keeper Jak Alnwick; maybe with better positioning he could have stopped Cazorla on the second goal but otherwise you'll have to look elsewhere for the breakdowns.  And for how bad the result was it could have been worse; Lee Mason's charitable foul call on Welbeck negated one goal and Tiote might have been in red card territory with a boot in the chest against Sanchez early in the first half.

Move along people, nothing to see here.  Let's move on to the Midlands derby and see how Aston Villa made out.

You should probably just keep moving along....


Fine, if you insist.  Never having experienced a colonoscopy (and I might be the only person who reads this blog that hasn't...), I don't quite know how this Villa match compares.  It was boring, with one moment of anguish and then an hour of slow suffering.  I sure hope that isn't what a colonoscopy is like anyway. [Sounds a bit like the night before the procedure actually.] Richardson picked up a straight red card in the 21st minute on a very borderline tackle - he went in hard, but all I saw was a poor decision after an even worse dribble, not malicious intent [more on this below].  West Brom used their man advantage fairly poorly, but managed an ugly, double-rebound goal in the 72nd minute.  The Villans had two or three moves that almost turned into decent chances, but they were never really in the match.  Hopefully this won't be the start of another 6 match losing streak, though with Manchester United this weekend, the losing streak will likely grow to at least 2.


Lovely Weather

And in a surprising turn of events, it was raining throughout much of Great Britain on Sunday but especially in Wales.  What wasn't to like about the Swansea City - Tottenham match on Sunday?  Ideal conditions - teeming, wind-driven rain.  Two sides that play a fairly wide open, attractive brand of football - I enjoyed watching the Sigurdsson-Bony passing combinations.  A close match.  As a Newcastle fan, I might have preferred a draw but Eriksen's strike in the 89th minute to give Spurs a 2-1 win was high quality.  I include this particular footage as the YouTubeableMoment as much for the reaction of the traveling Spurs fans as the goal itself.

Chelsea looked to have their hands full with Hull City even after an early goal by Eden Hazard.  Their task was made much easier when Dawson went down with an injury and Huddlestone picked up a red at 60 minutes.  Diego Costa sealed the deal with a goal in the 68th minute, giving Chelsea a 2-0 win (that also included 2 bookings for simulation!).  Didn't see the match but Man City kept pace with what must have been a less than stellar 1-0 win over relegation candidate Leicester.  Did see Man United also keep pace in what was a weird 3-0 win over Liverpool; all three goals felt like they were against the run of play and David De Gea's goalkeeping may have had something to do with that.  Not that the Man United goals weren't quality, they just seemed unexpected.  Balotelli's drought continues despite some good chances on his part.  We note that Southampton lost again, but this time to Burnley.  Ouch.


Arlo White and that Golden, Velvety, Yummy Voice of His

When I began watching the EPL, the commentators voices had some sort of magic power over me.  Maybe it was the accents.  Maybe it was the unusual honesty.  Whatever it was, I thought they were the best thing since not having to get a colonoscopy for 25 more years sliced bread.  But their powers are waning.  After the Richardson tackle, the commentators for the Villa match kept saying he had "studs showing", which is ridiculous to me.  I realize that you don't send your "A" crew to a Midlands derby these days, but please, show me a single slide tackle, legal or otherwise, in which studs are not showing.  Slide tackling with your studs facing the turf is not actually slide tackling - it is more like having your foot plant in the turf and then tearing every ligament in your knee as you somersault over yourself.  [Point taken and I think the phrase is "raised studs" which means you're either not sliding or you've lifted your leg(s) while sliding.  I saw a quick replay and at first thought the call was harsh.  However I found replay (you have to scroll down a bit to get to the video- check around 30 seconds) and see three things that justify the red - the speed with which he entered the tackle, the launch into the tackle and the fact that he made contact with the player, with his cleat, before ever having hit the ground, i.e. it was not a slide tackle, at least at the point of contact.  There's also some guidance about a straight leg/ locked knee being a tell - wait, the Loch Kneed Monster! Oh crap it must be late and I'm getting silly.]  In a separate incident, while extolling the virtues of Carlos Sanchez (a player that I like quite a bit) they said "he always passes to a man in Claret."  [Should have said he passes like a man who's had too much Claret.] Anyone who watches him play can see that easy passes are, in fact, his biggest weakness.  He often sends short passes right to the opponents and within maybe 15 seconds of the comment, Sanchez obliged and fluffed an easy pass.  These guys need to step their commentating game back up and regain their mysticism- this world doesn't need any more Joe Bucks or Tim McCarvers. [I'll second that.]


Football Manager Dilemma

A 3-1 win over Stoke City moved the Chester Blues into 3rd in the Premier League table.  Then things got a little crazy.  First, Arsenal fired their manager Hugo Sanchez.  There was rampant speculation that I was in  line to get the job but I denied any interest, which made me a hero with the Chester board and fans.  But then David Moyes, the Everton manager took the Arsenal job and before I knew it, I had an offer to be Moyes' replacement.

In real life, this would be a no-brainer.  My annual salary at Chester is about $125,000; at Everton it would be about $2.9 million.  Since it's play money, that aspect of the offer doesn't have much appeal.  What is intriguing in the payroll and transfer budget I would have at my disposal.  Currently the Chester board allows for about a $12 million annual payroll; Everton's is north of $60 million.  At Chester, I have nothing left of a $16 million transfer budget; Everton still have $20 million to spend.  Everton sits in 10th, six points back of Chester but we have a game in hand.  Some of the recognizable names on the roster include Tim Howard, Fellaini, Heitinga and Tim Cahill.

There is some thought to trying to leverage the offer into a larger payroll or transfer budget but the current limits may reflect the realities of a smaller club.  If it was the end of the year, it might be an easier decision.  Anyway, need to think on this a bit.

Moyes to Arsenal?  Can't see that one in real life.


League Cup Semi-finalists

Not Newcastle.  That is all you need to know. 

Okay, it's Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Sheffield United.  One of these is not like the others.  Only saw the first half of the Tottenham 4-0 drubbing of the Magpies; they were down 0-1 on a glaring mistake by Alnwick.  Followed the second half on Gamecast as the rout ensued.  Another possible cup crossed off the list.



Derby Derby Derby

Sunday morning (8:30 on NBCSN) sees Newcastle-Sunderland in the first Tyne-Wear derby of the year.  I do not subscribe to the theory that you can have a lousy season but if you beat your fiercest rival, it's a good year.  My ranking of season goals is something like:
1) Not being relegated - yeah we crushed the Black Cats but we won't face them next year 'cos we're in the Championship division
2) Finishing ahead of Sunderland in the table
3) Finishing in the top ten
4) Making the Europa Cup
5) Making the Champions League
6) Winning the Premier League title
7) Winning the FA Cup
8) Winning the League Cup
9) Winning the matches vs Sunderland

Now obviously beating Sunderland is a very useful step in achieving most or all of those goals  - especially 1) and 2) - so the match is quite important.  These are points that Newcastle cannot leave on the table. 

At the top of the table, Chelsea (away to Stoke on Monday) and Man City (hosting Crystal Palace early Saturday) look likely to match wins.  Third place Man United, with a recent history of winning (six in a row) despite often being "outplayed," travel to Aston Villa for the televised 10 am Saturday match.  Sunday has the aforementioned derby followed by Liverpool-Arsenal at Anfield.  Or should I say reeling Liverpool?  Tough match to get your act together.  And speaking of reeling, Southampton get to host inconsistent Everton.  Tottenham is home against Burnley and we would be remiss if we did not mention fourth place West Ham hosting Leicester.

 Ladies and gentlemen, don your scarfs...

Ball Boys Lead Newcastle to Win Over Chelsea

Busy week, much to comment on.


Don't Have A Cow,  Man

Newcastle instructed the ball boys and fans at St. James' Park to deliberately delay returning balls to the pitch in a devious plot to shorten the match and frustrate first place Chelsea on Saturday.  They also put a cow on the field.  The negative tactics worked to perfection and Newcastle stole a 2-1 victory from the much more deserving Blues.  At least that's how Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho saw it.  If you think I jest, read this.  Okay, I lied about the cow on the pitch but Mourinho did put the issue on the table.  Wait, let me quote a comment I saw on YouTube.  "Six f***ing minutes of extra time against ten men and a rookie keeper making his first league [appearance]...and you're blaming the f***ing ball boys?!"  Yes Emily, he's still a douche...

Won't dispute that Chelsea had the run of play, dominating possession.  But in response, the Newcastle defense worked its collective tail off.  And fashioned two near perfect counterattacks that ended in Papiss Cisse goals - haven't checked but I think this was the first time a Cisse goal put the Magpies in the lead.  Newcastle also survived an injury just before half time to their second string keeper, which led to the debut of Jak Alnwick; he performed creditably enough though was probably at fault for the Chelsea goal.  The last ten 16 minutes were way more unnerving than they needed to be because of another brain fart (are they contagious?), this time by Steven Taylor, who picked up his second yellow in the 81st minute.  Chelsea scored on the ensuing free kick after Taylor's foul to make it 2-1 and kept the pressure on but couldn't level the match.  With these three points, the Magpies have basically exceeded my meager expectations for December.

This just in...Dennis obtained a clip on Mourinho's post-match press conference:

Aston Villa

For most teams in the league, scoring 25% of your 14-match season total in goals means cruising to victory.  For Aston Villa, that means scratching and clawing for two goals in the same game for only the second time all season.  In an even more unexpected twist, they both came from defenders.  Shortly after a gift from Guzan put Leicester in front, Clark managed to steer an open header into the upper corner and Hutton blasted home a volley from short range in the 71st (which was the Villans first goal after the 60 minute mark all season).  Some nervy defending, which was present for most of the game, sealed our second win in as many matches.  Villa has had three distinct seasons so far:  3-1-0 in the first four matches, 0-0-6 in the next six, and now 2-3-0 in the past 5.  Of course, the competition in those middle 6 was bit stiffer, but it was still the first 6 game scoreless losing streak in club history.  

The team certainly appears headed in the right direction.  Benteke is finding his groove (he had the assist on Hutton's game winner).  Delph and Vlaar [subject of transfer rumors, ruh-roh] could return as soon this weekend.  Our next opponent, West Brom, is certainly on the list of teams against whom we have a chance of earning a point.  With 19 points through 15 matches, we are more than halfway to the magical 36 point relegation boundary with 4 games to spare and I am quite content.


Around the League 

Enigmatic Liverpool couldn't manage a goal against Sunderland in a 0-0 draw at Anfield.  Stoke stunned Arsenal, going up 3-0 (almost 4-0 on a controversial offside call) before hanging on 3-2.  Tottenham - see Liverpool comment but substitute Crystal Palace for Sunderland and White Hart Lane for Anfield.  Lots of bubbles at Upton Park as West Ham handled Swansea 3-1; nice work by Andy Carroll and his "man bun."  Somewhat disappointing match at the Etihad, with the only goal a Toure PK in Man City's 1-0 win over Everton.  Southampton lost 2-1 at home to Man United, completing the ten day Trilogy of Failure which had previously included losses to Man City and Arsenal; the Saints are a good team but may not be ready to compete for Europe yet.


Champions League

Manchester City yes, Liverpool no.  For details, ask Michael B.


Farewell Landon

US legend Landon Donovan went out on top as his LA Galaxy outlasted the New England Revolution to take the MLS Cup 2-1 in added extra time.  And BFS had a man in the stands.  Our resident keeper expert Chris K scored himself a front row ticket and provided us with pictures.

The first half looked like both teams were dealing with nerves - sloppy passes, heavy touches, errant shots.  First half highlight for me was our hero, Landon Donovan, getting a yellow card for a reckless foul, then pointing skyward to suggest that his challenge was mistimed because the sun was in his eyes.  Second half was more entertaining though, again, not necessarily the highest quality.  Jermaine Jones executed a one-legged lunge, no twist (degree of difficulty 1.8) that should have earned him a yellow.  Zardes, who had been chewing up the right side of the Revolution defense all day, was finally rewarded with a goal in the 52nd minute.  Like Paul Revere's midnight right, this roused the slumbering Revolution into action and they took the run of play.  Tierney's goal at 79 minutes leveled what was turning into a more entertaining match.  Keane missed his chance to win it in regulation, as did Bunbery for New England, who hit the cross bar late.

And so they went to extra time.  Some chances for NE in the first half but nothing found the net.  Six minutes into the second half, Sarves saw a well-timed run from Keane and hit him with a long pass; Keane was cool on the finish and LA had what would be the winning goal.  Can't say it was a great performance from Donovan but it wasn't awful either and for me it was great to see him go out with another cup.

Your Weekend Five Day Forecast

Sleep late on Saturday my friends as there is no early match.  Chelsea hosting Hull at Stamford Bridge (where the ball boys are courteous and there are no bovines on the pitch) and Man City at Leicester look like mismatches.  Aston Villa has to be hoping for a point out of the Midlands derby, even on the road against West Brom.  Speaking of derbies, we have another Monday Night Basketball derby as Newcastle travels to London to face Luke and Michael P's Arsenal; this has been a less than satisfying fixture for the Magpies recently and a draw would be outstanding.  Sunday has Man United hosting a reeling Liverpool at 8:30 and Tottenham traveling to Wales to improve their fortunes against Swansea City in the 11 am match - beware of the ex-Spur Gylfi Sigurdsson!  And there's another Monday game - Everton vs QPR.

And we have midweek action with the quarterfinals of the Capital One League Cup.  Tuesday has Derby - Chelsea and Sheffield Utd - Southampton; Wednesday has Bournemouth vs Liverpool and another Monday Night Basketball derby in Tottenham vs Newcastle.

We're Going To Play Hard For Four Quarters Two Halves

Maybe the Magpies need Ted Lasso to provide some motivation.  They certainly didn't play hard in the first half against Burnley.  Possibly the most incompetent display of football this season.  Newcastle were deservedly down 0-1 at half time.  So Pardew presumably reads them the riot act in the lockerroom, makes two substitutions (Cabella for Perez and Taylor for Williamson) to start the second half and they level the match at 48 minutes (with Cisse returning in his role as "The Equalizer").  Alas, they could do no more, though they were the dominant side for the last 45 minutes. 

So Newcastle are the best second half team in the league, going from 11 points at halftime to 20 points at the final whistle.  Here's my question.  Do we credit Pardew with being a great manager for being able to talk to his team and to find the right personnel adjustments?  Or do we fault him for lousy game preparation, noting that Newcastle have been outscored in the first 30 minutes by 0 goals to 6 goals?  I suppose both is a possible response.

Somewhat inclined to give the whole side a pass for Tuesday as the line up was rather unsettled.  The two Magpies with the highest work rates - Sissoko and Colback - were both suspended for the match.  Krul was already out but there was concern that his backup - Rob Elliott - would be unavailable as his wife was possibly going to give birth at match time.  Coloccini was also still injured.  Unfortunately, that should have been a chance for three points and they had to scramble to get the one.  Worse, the December fixtures don't look all that inviting.  If Newcastle are still in the top half of the table on New Year's Day, it will have been a good month.


Limited Viewing

That's the bad thing about a full mid-week schedule (But mid-week games are so wonderful when you work from home on Wednesdays) - I only saw two other matches.  Aston Villa was pushed around for 90 minutes plus stoppage time but it didn't matter because of 15 seconds of Benteke's brilliance, which is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The 1-0 win and the three points were big for the Villans (and the Benteke goal gives me actual hope for the future).  Tottenham faced Chelsea in a London Derby that has historically never gone well for Spurs and this was no exception.  Testimony to the Blues depth, leading scorer Diego Costa was out (one game suspension) but his two replacements (Drogba, then Remy) tallied one each.  Add in Hazard's opener at 19 minutes and you have Tottenham losing 3-0 and still looking for their first win at Stamford Bridge since I could still run a sub-5:00 mile.

Other news - Aguero got 2, Man City got 4 and things weren't too bright at the Stadium of Light as Sunderland went down 1-4.  Man United didn't look great, at least according to their manager, but got their three points against Stoke.  Everton had to settle for a draw with Hull, at home no less.  Arsenal helped Southampton flunk the second stage of their three part test with a late goal from Sanchez; the Saints have lost two in a row to quality opposition and now face Man United on Monday.

Liverpool took their time against lowly Leicester, even conceding an early own goal (shot off the post rebounds off the keeper – feels like a harsh own goal).  Eventually they established control over the game and finished it out playing up a man for 30 minutes.  West Ham also conceded early, but managed to take a halftime lead and hold on for the win over West Brom. While watching these matches, I noticed that my brain has not adjusted to the concept of relegation yet.  I cheer for the underdog by default, always forgetting that bottom table teams earning points is actually very bad for my personal rooting interest.  It feels weird to hope the best teams keep winning, but I guess that comes with the territory when your team is kinda crappy.

Pseudo Dives

During these last two rounds of matches, I noticed a surprising, but pleasant, trend in refereeing decisions.  Not once, but twice, were players given a yellow card for a handball while protesting for a foul.  We see it all the time in the professional game -  player gets fouled (or not), flops to the ground, and righteously grabs the ball to stop play.  It is though the player is just daring the referee to allow the perceived injustices to go unpunished.  Well this weekend, the referees fought back by brandishing the yellow and hopefully sending a message – “You play the game, we call the fouls."  While not quite bookings for simulation, these calls are equally satisfying and produce delightfully incredulous faces from the players. 

Proper Technique

Pictured left, Dennis and Mikey demonstrate flawless EPL viewing skills.  You should  definitely try this at home.  Dennis is the one not begging for a belly rub, at least not shamelessly. Neither is wearing the Aston Villa scarf - though I think I see it behind Mikey -  so we must conclude they are not watching the Villans.


Cyber Gunners Vanquished

Not a new action flick or new video game, just the results from Football Manager.  Chester held on for a 1-0 win over Arsenal, who aren't quite as good in Football Manager as in real life.  I had planned to rest several regulars since it was a midweek match and we were facing Liverpool on Saturday but at the last minute decided the Arsenal match was the more winnable one.  That move paid off, especially when one day later, the Liverpool match was postponed because of too many players being away on international duty.  The next three matches are against the bottom three sides so I will probably be using the "Don't get complacent" pep talk.


Donovan Finale

Win or lose, Sunday's MLS final will be Landon Donovan's last game.  Not a big fan of either the Galaxy or the Revolution so my appreciation of Landon Donovan's career is likely enough for me to pull for LA.  That's on Sunday at 3 pm on ESPN.

EPL has a full slate, starting off with Newcastle-Chelsea at 7:45 Saturday on NBCSN (no ExtraTime this week!).  The Magpies get several players back but this looks like a struggle - would gladly take a draw.  Aston Villa have an eminently winnable home match against Leicester - another chance for the Villans to put some distance between themselves and the relegation candidates (also on NBCSN, not ExtraTime).  Man City hosting Everton is the NBC match at 12:30 on Saturday - things don't seem to get any easier for the Toffees right now.  Tottenham will hope to right the ship with a home match against Rebecca Lowe's Crystal Palace while Arsenal travel to Stoke City.  Monday's match looks pretty good too - Southampton hosting Man United.

Final group stage matches for the Champions League are Tuesday and Wednesday.  With 11 berths to the knockout rounds already clinched (am I to understand that several Spanish sides are in that number?), another 11 teams are vying for the five remaining spots.  To this Anglophile eye, the Manchester City - Roma match has the most appeal; the Citizens advance with a win as long as CSKA Moscow don't beat Bayern.  Liverpool can also advance with a win over Basel.  Chelsea and Arsenal have already locked up spots in the knockout rounds.

In short, you have plenty of choices over the next five days.

Too Much Stuffing?

We realize that the English do not celebrate Thanksgiving but the "action" we saw this weekend sure looked like many players were working through that second piece of pie - a la mode at that.  Or maybe players were just looking ahead to mid-week matches.  Whatever the case, there were some lackluster performances, at least most of the ones I saw.  Arsenal scraped by West Brom 1-0 on a quality header from Danny Welbeck.  Liverpool beat Stoke 1-0 only because Glen Johnson was willing to take a boot upside the face while making a diving header.  Chelsea couldn't score against Sunderland.

Villa finally had a player not named Weimann or Agbonlahor find the back of the net to take an early lead against Burnley.  But again, due to a lack of confidence, talent, or both, the Villans decided to park the bus and try to eek out the 1-0 win.  That tactic rarely works for us and it once again led to a let down with Burnley equalizing on a deserved 86th minute penalty.  A single point against one of the worst squads leaves us just 2 points clear of relegation with a total of 7 goals scored through 13 matches. 

But none of the matches were more lacking in luster than the Magpies 0-1 loss to West Ham.  The two teams managed a total of three shots on frame.  The only goal was scored when a botched shot fell fortuitously at the feet of another attacker in the box.  There really wasn't that much difference between the teams and you could say, and some have, that Newcastle were just unlucky after a run of good fortune.  On the other hand, the team looked unenthusiastic and slow; they committed 16 fouls (vs season average of 11.4), which suggests to me they were frequently a step behind or out of position.  Any hope of a late goal was pretty much dead after Sissoko got a yellow for kicking the ball away, then followed with a rash challenge a mere 45 seconds later to earn a second yellow and the requisite red card and a one-game suspension.  In sum, this was just a reminder of who we are - a mid table side.


Handling (again)

Haven't found a video that I'm willing to link to [Dennis added two gifs that are good enough to see the basics] but if you can, find one that shows the play when Tottenham defender Fazio either 1) denies an obvious goalscoring opportunity with his arm, 2) handles the ball in the box, or 3) has the ball contact his arm while in the box. From Laws of the Game 2014-2015, p 119 (published by FIFA):


Handling the ball involves a deliberate act of a player making contact with the ball with his hand or arm. The referee must take the following into consideration:
• the movement of the hand towards the ball (not the ball towards the hand) 
• the distance between the opponent and the ball (unexpected ball)
• the position of the hand does not necessarily mean that there is an infringement
• touching the ball with an object held in the hand (clothing, shinguard, etc.) counts as an infringement 
• hitting the ball with a thrown object (boot, shinguard, etc.) counts as an infringement

I'm sure there will be many comments about "arm in an unnatural position."  I have always viewed that as putting your arms in an unnatural position to deliberately block the ball.  To me it looks like Fazio's arm moves the way it does because he's jumping (not sure what else one is supposed to do with their arms while jumping...), not because he's trying to make himself bigger or to deliberately block the ball.  Will be interested to see the blogosphere comments on this one.

By the way, Soldado scored for the first time since April as Spurs beat Everton 2-1.  Seeing some comments that Howard could have done better on both Tottenham goals.

Both the Manchester sides had a good weekend.  City's 3-0 handling of Southampton (including two after they went down a man but none by Aguero) suggests the Saints aren't quite ready for prime time.  Also noteworthy in that match was the booking for simulation of Aguero even though he was actually fouled (I'm thinking a 0 [in the Ronaldo rating system]) and Joe Hart's horrific mustache (part porn star, part Hitler). United's 3-0 handling of Hull keeps them in fourth and suggests they may be back.


Au Revoir, Thierry; Encore Une Fois, Landon

The Red Bulls failed to advance to the MLS final as they could only manage a 2-2 draw in New England which means they lost on aggregate 4-3.  Much better match.  When the Red Bulls took a 2-1 lead that meant everything was square and extra time was in the cards.  Even after the Revolution made it 2-2, a third goal by New Jersey based side would have sent them on.  But that goal was not forthcoming so the match may have been the last for Thierry Henry.  A marvelous career and I would love to see more European stars follow his lead and play for in the MLS.

On the left coast, the second leg of the Western Conference final was also highly entertaining.  Juninho's second half goal - his first of the season! - gave the Galaxy the away goal that advanced them to the MLS final.  On the down side, this means that once again, the team with the best regular season record will not be in the final.  On the up side, we will get to see Landon Donovan one more time next Sunday December 7th (a date which will live in infamy) in the final at 3pm on ESPN.


Mid-week EPL

Full slate of games but going to be hard to catch too many of them.  Newcastle faces Burnley but without Krul (ankle), Colback (accumulated yellows), Sissoko (45 second brain fart last Saturday).  Aston Villa has another relegation rival in Crystal Palace.