We're Number Two! We're Number Two!

The final first round games were full of drama, if not high quality soccer.  Taken as a whole, the reviews around the soccer blogosphere for the first round are very high.  And the second round matches look excellent too.

We Won Drew Didn't Lose by Three Four Goals

Was there a more gut wrenching 40 minutes than the time between Muller's goal and the final whistle of the Portugal-Ghana match?  With US down 0-1 and the other matched tied at 1-1, I confess to thinking the worst - we're not going to score, Ghana will and the US are going home.  Though it seemed weird to be so happy about the second Portuguese goal, the US earned the upper hand with better performances in the first two matches.  As I'll discuss more below, it's no different than two NFL teams entering the final week of the season with one holding an advantage if they finish with the same record because of a better conference record.


The question for me is, despite the fact that they advanced, were the long stretches of seemingly poor play really poor or a function of the competition?  Yes they beat Ghana but were outplayed by them for about 80 minutes.  And there were only traces of offensive pressure against the Germans and they spent the entire match on their heels.  On the other hand, Germany could only manage one goal against the US and Ghana got a draw against Germany when the group was still up for grabs.  So maybe this really was a tough group.

I ask because the important thing for me about this World Cup is less about how far we go and more about whether Klinsmann is taking the program to a new level.  A competitive showing, win or lose, versus Belgium would be a clear sign.

Is it possible that the group's standings turned on the Pepe red card for his soft head butt of Muller?  The score was 2-0 at the time but with the man advantage, Germany added two more.  The US differential was three better than Portugal but you can speculate how the things might have played out differently with a less lopsided result in that first match.  Speaking of Muller, who's getting tired of his thespian activities?  DeMarcus Beasley is; he risked a yellow card kicking the ball after another phantom foul occasioned by a Muller dive.


Three is the Loneliest Number

There were tense moments in the other seven groups as well, though it wasn't necessarily the best soccer of the tournament so far.  Four of the 16 matches were affected by straight red cards.  There was magic from Messi, an offensive explosion from Mexico and the ugliness of Uruguay-Italy (39 fouls, the winning "header" was off Godin's back, and Luis Overbite's indiscretion).  For last second heroics/tragedy, the Greece - Ivory Coast match takes the prize.  The Ivorians, needing only a draw, had evened the match up in the 74 minute and were seconds away from advancing when Georgios Samaras was fouled in the box; he converted the PK and Greece took second in the group.

Some random numbers.  Four teams won all three first round matches - Netherlands, Columbia, Argentina and Belgium.  The Dutch had the most goals - 10.  Greece was the only team with a negative goal differential to advance (just 2 scored, 4 allowed).  Ecuador and Portugal were the only sides with four or more points not to advance.  "Last" place in the tournament looks to be Cameroon's - no points and a negative 8 goal differential, narrowly edging out pointless Honduras (-7 goal differential) and Australia (-6 goal differential).



Mini Rant

How often have you heard the complaint that soccer is boring, nothing ever happens?  No, the person doesn't know what he's looking at.  A short pass out to the wing to create a run down the side line?  How is that different from the quarterback dumping a pass to the halfback out in the flat and watching him run?  Or how about, the rules are complicated, I like baseball, three strikes and you're out.  Ask that person, what happens if the catcher drops the third strike?  What happens if the catcher drops the third strike and there's a man on first?  What happens if the catcher drops the third strike and there's a man on first but there's two outs?  Nothing more puzzling to me than to listen to someone who can recite to the letter how the NFL tiebreaker rules work for determining the wild card playoff spots but throws his hands up, declaring soccer tiebreaker rules are just too confusing.  I would say that in general there's less outright hostility towards the sport than there used to be (yeah, I read Ann Coulter's recent screech but she'll say anything to get a rise out of people) but I still think many are still too willing to find excuses not to get interested.


Interlude

When I played soccer I was often compared to Italian striker Ciro Immobile.  Honest.  I can't tell you how many times people said "It's like you're immobile out there."


Round Two Viewing Guide

Eight games in four days, one at noon and one at four pm. We have South American Saturday with
Brazil-Chile and Columbia-Uruguay.  Sunday is Netherlands - Mexico and Greece - Costa Rica. Decent odds for Los Ticos; if they should advance, motorists in Northwest Philadelphia are advised to be sure not to hit the tall, silver-haired man dancing in the streets.  Action continues Monday with France - Nigeria and Argentina - Switzerland, then concludes on Tuesday with Germany - Algeria and Belgium - US.

Viewing recommendations: Watch them all

I couldn't find Nate Silver's soccer model right before the cup started but have since located several articles. This one includes percent chance of advancing through the rounds for each of the remaining teams in the tournament.  Note that this model gives the US a better chance than most of the underdogs in the second round.  Brazil's favorable odds are predicated on modeling which suggests a huge home field advantage, larger than in any other sport.  If you click on the link "our model," you can read details on how it works and their projections for the group stage. 


48 down, 15 to go.