Final Group Stage Matches and Scenarios

Too spent to offer much on the US-Portugal draw.  If you were not entertained by that match, well, this may not be your sport.  We had a crowd of 11 here at 6911.  On both the US goals the celebratory jumping caused temporary interruptions in the cable feed.

Fleeting thoughts on the weekend's other contests before getting to the scenarios:

Argentina and Belgium, pre-tournament favorites, both took their sweet time getting 1-0 wins.  Lukaku has been largely ineffective and has been subbed out in both games.  Hazard hasn't been a dynamo but he did set up the game-winner against Russia.

Bosnia and Herzegovina were undone by a terrible offsides call and a sketchy non-call on Nigeria's goal.

Iran's defense has been amazing; some have suggested they played an 11-0-5 against Argentina - all 11 players defend and the five holy saints play forward.

Germany-Ghana was the best match (or at least the best half) of the tournament so far, until the US-Portuguese game. Though US interests were probably best served with a German win, we found it hard to root against the Ghanians.


 Scheduling

Many have asked why, after making sure that there has been no overlap of matches in the first 32 games, FIFA insists on scheduling the last matches for each group at the same time.  In truth, nobody asked but I'll explain anyway.  As outlined in an earlier post, the tie-breaking procedures involve goal differential and goals scored.  If the matches are not played at the same time, the team playing the later match could know exactly what they need and play accordingly, like in this match in 1982 as described in The Guardian:

The 3-2 victory still meant Algeria would become the first African team to reach the second round unless the group's final game, to be played the following day, ended in a one- or two-goal win for West Germany over Austria, in which case both the European teams would progress at Algeria's expense. In the 10th minute of that match Horst Hrubesch put the Germans in front. Then … nothing happened. Realising the scoreline suited both of them, Germany and Austria effectively stopped playing. In the ensuing 80 minutes there were no shots, and barely any tackles, crosses or sprints. The game was no longer a contest, it was a conspiracy. The teams' cynicism provoked universal scorn.

Thus, since 1986, the final matches for each group have the same kickoff time.  Shenanigans like those of the Germans and Austrians could easily backfire.  For example in 1982, suppose Algeria had added another goal late; all of sudden Austria, farting around content with an 0-1 loss, would find themselves out of the tournament.  So, while the practice screws up our viewing opportunities, it does ensure more honest efforts.

Scenarios

Group A - This got messy after Brazil and Mexico drew.  Any of Brazil, Mexico or Croatia could advance and/or win the group with the right combination of wins, losses, draws and goals.  Brazil are in with a win or draw over Cameroon and are well-positioned to win the group.  Mexico have played well so far and advance with a win or draw but could find themselves ousted with a loss.  Croatia are definitely out with a loss to Mexico, definitely in with a win and at the whim of the tie-breaking scenarios with a draw.

Viewing choice:  Tough call but we will be watching the Mexico - Croatia match (Monday at 4 pm), guessing that Brazil are likely to care of business against Cameroon.


Group B - not much to write about here. Chile and Netherlands are on to the next round.  They play each other on Monday.  The winner will take first in the group; if it's a draw, the Netherlands will take first on the basis of goal differential.  Australia - Spain is a contest to avoid last in group and possibility last in the entire tournament.

Viewing choice: Chile - Netherlands (Noon on Monday); the winner not only avoids (most likely anyway) a second round match vs Brazil but goes to the other side of the bracket and wouldn't have to face Brazil until the final.


Group C -Columbia are into the next round and win the group with a win or draw vs Japan.  Ivory Coast advance with a win vs Greece or a draw combined with a Japan loss or draw vs Columbia; they could win the group with a win and a Columbian loss.  Greece is in with a win plus a Japan loss or draw.  If both Japan and Greece win, tie-breakers will be needed.

Viewing choice: Ivory Coast - Greece (4 pm Tuesday).


Group D - Costa Rica will advance and wins the group with a win or draw against England; they could even loss the final match and still win the group on tiebreakers.  Italy faces Uruguay in the other Group D match; a win for either sends them on.  In case of draw, Italy wins the tie-breaker on goal differential because they only lost to Costa Rica by one goal compared to Uruguay's two; words that were surely spoken before the tournament - second place in the group will go to the side that does the least bad against Costa Rica.

Viewing choice: Uruguay-Italy (Tuesday at noon).


Group E - France, arguably the best team so far, are surprisingly not safe yet.  A win or draw versus Ecuador guarantee advancement.  Frankly, they are so far ahead in the goal differential that Ecuador would have to beat them by 3 goals and score at least 5 to have a chance while Switzerland would have beat Honduras by 3 scoring at least 4.  Honduras, winless so far, could advance with a win and the right goal combinations.  Switzerland has to do better than Ecuador or will lose out on the tie-breakers.

Viewing choice: France - Ecuador (4 pm Wednesday); another close call but we're interested to see if France maintains the pace they've set so far.


Group F - Argentina are advancing and win the group with a win or draw against Nigeria.  Nigeria win the group by beating Argentina, advance with a draw and could advance with a loss if Iran doesn't beat Bosnia and Herzegovina.  Iran could make it but need to win and hope Nigeria lose; scoring their first goal of this tournament would help.

Viewing choice: Argentina - Nigeria (Wednesday at noon).


Group G - All to play for at this point after draws in both weekend matches.  Winner of Germany-US wins the group; both advance with a draw, Germany winning the group on goal differential.  US can still advance with a loss but it gets tricky.  Should Ghana and Portugal draw, the US is in.  If either win and the US loses, the tie-breakers will come into play.  Fortunately, the US starts at +1 while Ghana is -1 and Portugal is -4. 

Viewing choice: Take a wild guess; actually the Ghana-Portugal game should be compelling but parochial interests dictate that the channel will be set to US-Germany (Thursday at noon).  Caveat - both US and Germany might decide they can live with a draw, which could make for a dull match.


Group H - Belgium are through and win the group with a win or draw versus Korea.  Algeria has the edge for the second spot but must beat Russia or draw and hope Korea doesn't upset Belgium.  Russia could still make it with a win over Algeria and a Korea loss or draw (or favorable goal combinations).  Korea can also make it but must win and hope for a draw and favorable goal combinations.

Viewing choice: Russia - Algeria (Thursday at 4 pm).


Not sure if matches are better this year or it's just because I'm able to watch so much more of the action this time around but damn, this is wildly entertaining.