We're Number Two! We're Number Two!

The final first round games were full of drama, if not high quality soccer.  Taken as a whole, the reviews around the soccer blogosphere for the first round are very high.  And the second round matches look excellent too.

We Won Drew Didn't Lose by Three Four Goals

Was there a more gut wrenching 40 minutes than the time between Muller's goal and the final whistle of the Portugal-Ghana match?  With US down 0-1 and the other matched tied at 1-1, I confess to thinking the worst - we're not going to score, Ghana will and the US are going home.  Though it seemed weird to be so happy about the second Portuguese goal, the US earned the upper hand with better performances in the first two matches.  As I'll discuss more below, it's no different than two NFL teams entering the final week of the season with one holding an advantage if they finish with the same record because of a better conference record.


The question for me is, despite the fact that they advanced, were the long stretches of seemingly poor play really poor or a function of the competition?  Yes they beat Ghana but were outplayed by them for about 80 minutes.  And there were only traces of offensive pressure against the Germans and they spent the entire match on their heels.  On the other hand, Germany could only manage one goal against the US and Ghana got a draw against Germany when the group was still up for grabs.  So maybe this really was a tough group.

I ask because the important thing for me about this World Cup is less about how far we go and more about whether Klinsmann is taking the program to a new level.  A competitive showing, win or lose, versus Belgium would be a clear sign.

Is it possible that the group's standings turned on the Pepe red card for his soft head butt of Muller?  The score was 2-0 at the time but with the man advantage, Germany added two more.  The US differential was three better than Portugal but you can speculate how the things might have played out differently with a less lopsided result in that first match.  Speaking of Muller, who's getting tired of his thespian activities?  DeMarcus Beasley is; he risked a yellow card kicking the ball after another phantom foul occasioned by a Muller dive.


Three is the Loneliest Number

There were tense moments in the other seven groups as well, though it wasn't necessarily the best soccer of the tournament so far.  Four of the 16 matches were affected by straight red cards.  There was magic from Messi, an offensive explosion from Mexico and the ugliness of Uruguay-Italy (39 fouls, the winning "header" was off Godin's back, and Luis Overbite's indiscretion).  For last second heroics/tragedy, the Greece - Ivory Coast match takes the prize.  The Ivorians, needing only a draw, had evened the match up in the 74 minute and were seconds away from advancing when Georgios Samaras was fouled in the box; he converted the PK and Greece took second in the group.

Some random numbers.  Four teams won all three first round matches - Netherlands, Columbia, Argentina and Belgium.  The Dutch had the most goals - 10.  Greece was the only team with a negative goal differential to advance (just 2 scored, 4 allowed).  Ecuador and Portugal were the only sides with four or more points not to advance.  "Last" place in the tournament looks to be Cameroon's - no points and a negative 8 goal differential, narrowly edging out pointless Honduras (-7 goal differential) and Australia (-6 goal differential).



Mini Rant

How often have you heard the complaint that soccer is boring, nothing ever happens?  No, the person doesn't know what he's looking at.  A short pass out to the wing to create a run down the side line?  How is that different from the quarterback dumping a pass to the halfback out in the flat and watching him run?  Or how about, the rules are complicated, I like baseball, three strikes and you're out.  Ask that person, what happens if the catcher drops the third strike?  What happens if the catcher drops the third strike and there's a man on first?  What happens if the catcher drops the third strike and there's a man on first but there's two outs?  Nothing more puzzling to me than to listen to someone who can recite to the letter how the NFL tiebreaker rules work for determining the wild card playoff spots but throws his hands up, declaring soccer tiebreaker rules are just too confusing.  I would say that in general there's less outright hostility towards the sport than there used to be (yeah, I read Ann Coulter's recent screech but she'll say anything to get a rise out of people) but I still think many are still too willing to find excuses not to get interested.


Interlude

When I played soccer I was often compared to Italian striker Ciro Immobile.  Honest.  I can't tell you how many times people said "It's like you're immobile out there."


Round Two Viewing Guide

Eight games in four days, one at noon and one at four pm. We have South American Saturday with
Brazil-Chile and Columbia-Uruguay.  Sunday is Netherlands - Mexico and Greece - Costa Rica. Decent odds for Los Ticos; if they should advance, motorists in Northwest Philadelphia are advised to be sure not to hit the tall, silver-haired man dancing in the streets.  Action continues Monday with France - Nigeria and Argentina - Switzerland, then concludes on Tuesday with Germany - Algeria and Belgium - US.

Viewing recommendations: Watch them all

I couldn't find Nate Silver's soccer model right before the cup started but have since located several articles. This one includes percent chance of advancing through the rounds for each of the remaining teams in the tournament.  Note that this model gives the US a better chance than most of the underdogs in the second round.  Brazil's favorable odds are predicated on modeling which suggests a huge home field advantage, larger than in any other sport.  If you click on the link "our model," you can read details on how it works and their projections for the group stage. 


48 down, 15 to go.

Final Group Stage Matches and Scenarios

Too spent to offer much on the US-Portugal draw.  If you were not entertained by that match, well, this may not be your sport.  We had a crowd of 11 here at 6911.  On both the US goals the celebratory jumping caused temporary interruptions in the cable feed.

Fleeting thoughts on the weekend's other contests before getting to the scenarios:

Argentina and Belgium, pre-tournament favorites, both took their sweet time getting 1-0 wins.  Lukaku has been largely ineffective and has been subbed out in both games.  Hazard hasn't been a dynamo but he did set up the game-winner against Russia.

Bosnia and Herzegovina were undone by a terrible offsides call and a sketchy non-call on Nigeria's goal.

Iran's defense has been amazing; some have suggested they played an 11-0-5 against Argentina - all 11 players defend and the five holy saints play forward.

Germany-Ghana was the best match (or at least the best half) of the tournament so far, until the US-Portuguese game. Though US interests were probably best served with a German win, we found it hard to root against the Ghanians.


 Scheduling

Many have asked why, after making sure that there has been no overlap of matches in the first 32 games, FIFA insists on scheduling the last matches for each group at the same time.  In truth, nobody asked but I'll explain anyway.  As outlined in an earlier post, the tie-breaking procedures involve goal differential and goals scored.  If the matches are not played at the same time, the team playing the later match could know exactly what they need and play accordingly, like in this match in 1982 as described in The Guardian:

The 3-2 victory still meant Algeria would become the first African team to reach the second round unless the group's final game, to be played the following day, ended in a one- or two-goal win for West Germany over Austria, in which case both the European teams would progress at Algeria's expense. In the 10th minute of that match Horst Hrubesch put the Germans in front. Then … nothing happened. Realising the scoreline suited both of them, Germany and Austria effectively stopped playing. In the ensuing 80 minutes there were no shots, and barely any tackles, crosses or sprints. The game was no longer a contest, it was a conspiracy. The teams' cynicism provoked universal scorn.

Thus, since 1986, the final matches for each group have the same kickoff time.  Shenanigans like those of the Germans and Austrians could easily backfire.  For example in 1982, suppose Algeria had added another goal late; all of sudden Austria, farting around content with an 0-1 loss, would find themselves out of the tournament.  So, while the practice screws up our viewing opportunities, it does ensure more honest efforts.

Scenarios

Group A - This got messy after Brazil and Mexico drew.  Any of Brazil, Mexico or Croatia could advance and/or win the group with the right combination of wins, losses, draws and goals.  Brazil are in with a win or draw over Cameroon and are well-positioned to win the group.  Mexico have played well so far and advance with a win or draw but could find themselves ousted with a loss.  Croatia are definitely out with a loss to Mexico, definitely in with a win and at the whim of the tie-breaking scenarios with a draw.

Viewing choice:  Tough call but we will be watching the Mexico - Croatia match (Monday at 4 pm), guessing that Brazil are likely to care of business against Cameroon.


Group B - not much to write about here. Chile and Netherlands are on to the next round.  They play each other on Monday.  The winner will take first in the group; if it's a draw, the Netherlands will take first on the basis of goal differential.  Australia - Spain is a contest to avoid last in group and possibility last in the entire tournament.

Viewing choice: Chile - Netherlands (Noon on Monday); the winner not only avoids (most likely anyway) a second round match vs Brazil but goes to the other side of the bracket and wouldn't have to face Brazil until the final.


Group C -Columbia are into the next round and win the group with a win or draw vs Japan.  Ivory Coast advance with a win vs Greece or a draw combined with a Japan loss or draw vs Columbia; they could win the group with a win and a Columbian loss.  Greece is in with a win plus a Japan loss or draw.  If both Japan and Greece win, tie-breakers will be needed.

Viewing choice: Ivory Coast - Greece (4 pm Tuesday).


Group D - Costa Rica will advance and wins the group with a win or draw against England; they could even loss the final match and still win the group on tiebreakers.  Italy faces Uruguay in the other Group D match; a win for either sends them on.  In case of draw, Italy wins the tie-breaker on goal differential because they only lost to Costa Rica by one goal compared to Uruguay's two; words that were surely spoken before the tournament - second place in the group will go to the side that does the least bad against Costa Rica.

Viewing choice: Uruguay-Italy (Tuesday at noon).


Group E - France, arguably the best team so far, are surprisingly not safe yet.  A win or draw versus Ecuador guarantee advancement.  Frankly, they are so far ahead in the goal differential that Ecuador would have to beat them by 3 goals and score at least 5 to have a chance while Switzerland would have beat Honduras by 3 scoring at least 4.  Honduras, winless so far, could advance with a win and the right goal combinations.  Switzerland has to do better than Ecuador or will lose out on the tie-breakers.

Viewing choice: France - Ecuador (4 pm Wednesday); another close call but we're interested to see if France maintains the pace they've set so far.


Group F - Argentina are advancing and win the group with a win or draw against Nigeria.  Nigeria win the group by beating Argentina, advance with a draw and could advance with a loss if Iran doesn't beat Bosnia and Herzegovina.  Iran could make it but need to win and hope Nigeria lose; scoring their first goal of this tournament would help.

Viewing choice: Argentina - Nigeria (Wednesday at noon).


Group G - All to play for at this point after draws in both weekend matches.  Winner of Germany-US wins the group; both advance with a draw, Germany winning the group on goal differential.  US can still advance with a loss but it gets tricky.  Should Ghana and Portugal draw, the US is in.  If either win and the US loses, the tie-breakers will come into play.  Fortunately, the US starts at +1 while Ghana is -1 and Portugal is -4. 

Viewing choice: Take a wild guess; actually the Ghana-Portugal game should be compelling but parochial interests dictate that the channel will be set to US-Germany (Thursday at noon).  Caveat - both US and Germany might decide they can live with a draw, which could make for a dull match.


Group H - Belgium are through and win the group with a win or draw versus Korea.  Algeria has the edge for the second spot but must beat Russia or draw and hope Korea doesn't upset Belgium.  Russia could still make it with a win over Algeria and a Korea loss or draw (or favorable goal combinations).  Korea can also make it but must win and hope for a draw and favorable goal combinations.

Viewing choice: Russia - Algeria (Thursday at 4 pm).


Not sure if matches are better this year or it's just because I'm able to watch so much more of the action this time around but damn, this is wildly entertaining.

Exactly as Predicted...

Just as everybody predicted after two games:

Spain out
England out
Costa Rica on to the Round of 16
Brazil with three goals


French celebrations

Les Bleus had plenty of chances to celebrate in their 5-2 thrashing of Switzerland.  This first one merited a yellow card.  This one by Valbuena in which the tiny Frenchman, possibly shorter than Napoleon, gets a piggy back ride from teammate Olivier Giroud, is a candidate for the weird celebration of the tournament; I was going to say "in which Valbuena mounts Giroud" but you guys would all take that the wrong way.  This match also featured a goal from Newcastle's Moussa Sissoko. Two more and he will equal his season output for the Magpies.  There is much talk in the Newcastle fan publications that Sissoko's disappointing 2013-14 season was in large part due to Alan Pardew playing him at right wing rather than as a box-to-box midfielder.  Maybe, and Sissoko started in the middle vs Switzerland, but he scored after he was moved out to right wing.

The Mouse That Roared...Again

We suggested that you take Costa Rica lightly at your own peril.  Italy did not take advantage of the warning that should have been evident after the Uruguay match and they fell to Los Ticos 1-0.  Goal line technology made sure the Costa Rican tally was properly called.  Costa Rica's defense was well-organized, leading to 11 offsides calls against the Italians.  Was that Bob K racing down Germantown Avenue madly waving his sombrero?  Here you go Bob, play this to your heart's content; vive Los Ticos! At least Italy are still alive; England, after being dispatched by Uruguay, are out of the tournament.


An American [Ref] in Rio

MLS referee Mark Geiger distinguished himself again, this time in Wednesday's match between Spain and Chile.  This was a high stakes match, it's importance amped up after Spain lost their opener to Holland (btw co-editor Dennis did predict that the Dutch would advance out of this group).  By all accounts, he handled the pressure well; I thought he was a bit better in his first match but was still very solid in this one.  You figure he's going to get one or two more assignments, including one in the knockout rounds.


Cyber Spoiler Alert

 While I am merrily managing the Chester Blues to heights never seen in club history, Football Manager is busy simulating results from leagues and tournaments around the world, including...the World Cup.  It is now July 21, 2014, which means that the 2014 World Cup is in the books.  In this universe, France beat Argentina 3-1 in the final match. That's not entirely unlikely but the other semi-finalists were Russia (long shot but still a possibility) and Cameroon (already eliminated in the real tournament).  Remember that this is the 2010 version of the game so it has been divorced from reality simulating without knowledge of the real world for over four years now, retiring players and making up new ones, etc. In other words, you might not want to bet the house on this result.


And Another Thing...

The wave? Really?  I thought that went out with the 1979 Oakland Athletics.

The Women of 6911 (now there's a new reality series begging for a producer) have nominated Costa Rica's Bryan Ruiz for Best Hair ("look how it bounces even in that humidity") of the tournament so far.  To dispel any notions of stereotypical female viewers, they also commented on how Costa Rica's high defensive line frustrated the Italian attack, leading to all those offsides calls.  Nothing gets by them (the women of 6911 that is).





Planning to do a post Sunday night outlining the scenarios for the final set of first round games that start Monday and to explain why the final games in each group have the same kickoff times.  Also, to comment on the fortunes of the US (vs Portugal) and Belgium (vs Russia).

Our Mister Brooks

You knew it was going to end badly for the US.  Ghana had tied the match up in the 82nd minute and with the way they were dominating the match, would surely find another goal to again spoil the US World Cup tournament.  Except, there was Fabian Johnson winning a corner kick, Graham Zusi crossing the ball just so and John Brooks heading the ball into the net for an improbable US win.

Would Zusi and Brooks even have been in there if not for injuries to Bedoya and Besler?  Probably not.  Clint Dempsey, who had been running around with tissue jammed up his nose after being kicked in the face, probably would have been taken out before Bedoya or Besler.  Chandler for Beasley might have been another option if not for the injuries.

And to be fair, Brooks was not always on the same page as Cameron on the back line though they managed to get through okay.  But his tally might find its way into the top 10 all-time US goals in World Cup action.  Reports have Brooks telling his teammates of a dream the night before in which he scored the winning goal in the 80th minute.  Not even close - the goal was scored in the 86th minute.

On paper it was a great day.  2-1 win over Ghana, Portugal falling to Germany 4-0.  Upon closer inspection, maybe not as good as it seemed.  The injuries were a bit much - isn't fitness supposed to be the hallmark of this team.  Altidore's status is still unclear; at least Dempsey, Besler and Bedoya are likely good for Sunday's match against Portugal.  Of greater concern was the US play for about 88:30 of the 90 minutes on Monday.  No possession, terrible passing, non-existent attack.  Maybe Altidore's injury messed things up; Aronson is is a different kind of striker, not as mobile as Jozy.  Bradley was not playing the top of the diamond in the middle - they were playing a straight 4-4-2; that may have accounted for the some of the messed up passing.  That it was 1-0 through 82 minutes may say more about the quality of Ghana than anything else.

Portugal will be missing some key personnel on Sunday but they seemed anxious to redeem themselves after the pasting they received from Germany; US will almost certainly need a better performance.


Goal Line Technology - One Yes, One No

The yes was in the France-Honduras match.  You can find the video here. The Honduran coach appeared perturbed about the whole thing and my first reaction was "Dude, it is what it is."  Turns out what happened was that the result of the initial shot was shown on the stadium screen, which of course indicated "no goal."  That was followed quickly by the view of the ricochet off the keeper, which was over the line.  The coach was thinking that the GLT had reversed itself and was questioning what was going on.

The no was in the Mexico-Brazil match, where the technology showed that Mexican keeper Guillermo Ochoa had indeed prevented another goal with his acrobatics.  Not that it was really that close but the ball was part way across the line.

Speaking of Mexico-Brazil, I hope you saw that match because it was an excellent example of how compelling a 0-0 draw can be.  Conversely, I would not suggest tracking down a replay of Nigeria-Iran as that is an example of how bad a 0-0 can be...like watching grass grow as a college mate once pointed out.


Other Random Items

Excellent performance for France by Newcastle's Mathieu Debucy at right back.  He was a constant offensive threat coming up from his fullback position, especially after Honduras went down a man.  Fellow Magpie Moussa Sissoko also came on in the match as a sub and performed creditably.

US referee Mark Geiger has indeed drawn another assignment - Wednesday's marquee match featuring Spain and Chile.

Belgium overcame a slow start and eventually subdued Algeria 2-1, the sixth time (I think) that a team has won after falling behind in this WC Final.  Goals were from Fellaini and Mertens, who were not in the starting line up.

The Alan Pardew head butt, which is more of head shove, is making the rounds, with Pepe getting a red card and Costa avoiding any sanctions for their tepid, but ultimately still aggressive, actions.

Academy Awards to Mueller (for the initial flop on the inadvertent elbow) and Indi for overwrought reaction to Costa's tap.

Anybody seen a booking for simulation yet?  I believe we're still waiting for this WC Final's first.


17 of the 48 group stage matches in the book.  Are we not entertained?

World Cup Viewing Etiquette

The mantra here at BFS:

Do not engage in unprotected texts.

This year's schedule presents unique opportunities and challenges.  The noon-3 pm-6 pm-and sometimes 9 pm match times allow some to watch many matches live.  But not all can manage that.  So please, before you blurt out a comment or text, ask the person if he/she is up-to-date with World Cup action.  Don't want to have this happen to you.

Results

Brazil 3 Croatia 1 - tense but at the same time uninspiring.  Discussion of PK call below.

Mexico 1 Cameroon 0 - important win but was it enough and the match versus Croatia is still the critical one. Discussion of the dos dos Santos offsides calls below.

Netherlands 5 Spain 1 - didn't see this coming.  Van Persie stakes early claim to goal of the tournament.  Casillas bad awful spring continues.  Arjen Robben manages to stay on his feet long enough to score two goals. If I was Spain, I would immediately burn those white uniforms - if you're superstitious about those kinds of things.  Creditable performance from Aston Villa's Ron (Ikea Bookcase) Vlaar.  Discussion of PK call below.

Chile 3 Australia 1 - Chile got a quick start and took the foot off the petal and it nearly cost them.  Wonder if that late goal will prove to be critical in a tie-situation.  This could be a group where three teams have 6 points (2 wins and a loss).  Add Spain-Chile on Wednesday June 18th at 3 pm to our earlier list of critical matches to watch.

Columbia 3 Greece 0 - My understanding of Columbia is that they are an inexperienced side and this was the match to get them.  Columbia came out strong and got an early goal.   Then, Greece did well but could not score; two late goals leave them in bad way and wins against both Ivory Coast and Japan may now be necessary.  Early candidate for best celebration led by Armero:


Also, kudos to American Mark Geiger for best refereed contest to date.  We will likely see him again this tournament.

Costa Rica 3 Uruguay 1 - Bob K's Los Ticos with their greatest WC performance evah!  Totally earned and the score fairly reflects what I saw on the pitch.  Uruguay opened the scoring with a PK and frankly weren't all that threatening for the rest of the match.  All three CR goals were top quality; Duarte giving himself up to make the header in the face of the Uruguayan  challenge was the standout for me.  Campbell takes the lead for the weirdest goal celebration:

Apparently his point is that at 21, he's just a baby.


Italy 2 England 1 - Despite an improved English attack over previous WC sides, Italy in fact was the better team here and England was incredibly ineffective in the late stages of the match even when a draw was imminently possible.  Balotelli seems to have so few touches but he makes them count.  The England-Uruguay contest is now critical to each; also, take Costa Rica lightly at your own peril.

Ivory Coast 2 Japan 1 - Cheick Tiote' makes the first appearance by a Newcastle player in the tournament.  First half his most notable involvement was a foul that would have done an NFL linebacker proud.  Second half I thought he did well as a ball-winning midfielder and his work started the buildup for the second IC goal.  And he came through the match without a yellow card.  Did Drogba make the difference in this match?  He comes on with the Elephants down 0-1 and within minutes they're up 2-1; he wasn't really involved in the goals but the effect on the team was noticeable.


Refereeing

Not great for FIFA when the refs get a lot of ink in the first three WC matches.  Only thing more annoying than when bad calls affect games is listening to/reading commenters (some who should know better) butchering the rules in explaining why the call was wrong, which many have done on the second dos Santos offsides call.

Fred's Flop - Sure he flopped, made a meal of it in the lingo.  Tough call and it changed the character of the match.  This is the one that bothers me the least.  Don't want to get called for a foul in the box?  Keep your friggin' hands down.  You put your hands over the attacker's shoulder you're inviting a flop and a call.

dos Santos offsides (warning - this section is wonky, at least from a soccer rules perspective) - First one was close but looks wrong.  Some sympathy for the AR here.  What made it a tougher call was that dos Santos was actually coming back to get himself onsides, i.e, he was moving.  Still, looks like he got it wrong and the advice to referees is that if there is any doubt, decide in favor of the attacker. On the second, both the ref and the AR, assuming they are communicating (and are given mics and ear pieces specifically to ensure they can talk to each other), share the blame.   To start with, it was a corner kick - it is not an infraction to receive a ball directly from a corner kick in an offsides position.  So the only way the play could be offsides would be if another Mexican player touched it before it got to dos Santos.  The replay pretty clearly shows it touched a Cameroon player.  But if the AR has the flag up and the referee knows it didn't touch a Mexican player, isn't it a simple matter to talk through to get to the right call...unless off course, the referee thinks it did go off a Mexican player, in which case he appears to be mistaken.  Also too, dos Santos might not have even been in an offsides position.

But the explanations as to why it's a bad call have been way off the mark.  I read/heard so many comments that the Cameroon touch means it cannot be offsides since the ball was played to dos Santos by an opponent.  Um, no.  From USSF Advice to Referees, Section 11.4 and 11.14:


For the defenders,merely touching the ball is not sufficient in the context of an offside decision — they must actually play(possess and control) the ball, meaning that for them there is indeed a meaningful distinction between"touch" and "play."

The possibility of penalizing a player for being in an offside position must be reevaluated whenever:
 1. The ball is again touched or played by a teammate,
 2. The ball is played (possessed and controlled, not simply deflected, miskicked or misdirected) by an
opponent, including the opposing goalkeeper,...

Then I started seeing some comments that if a corner kick is touched by anybody (teammate or opponent), the offsides decision has to be re-evaluated, i.e. it means you didn't receive the ball "directly."  I doubted that this was a correct interpretation based on everything I've read about the impact of an opponent's touch on the offsides decision but wasn't 100% sure so back on the computer searching for resources.  Aha, in 2001, USSF published a document called "Speaking Directly."  I haven't found a copy yet but I did get the following from it on the USSF website:

If at a goal kick, throw-in, or a corner kick taken by his team, a player receives the ball directly from the restart, there is no problem. Nor should there be any problem at a corner kick, as it is physically impossible for a player on the field of play to be offside directly from a corner kick. The confusion arises at throw-ins or goal kicks when the ball is deflected or misplayed by an opponent and then comes to the teammate of the thrower or kicker who is in an offside position. In such cases, the referee must disregard the deflection or misplay of the ball by the opponent, as there has been no infringement of the Law. However, if the ball were to be deflected or misplayed instead by a teammate of the thrower or kicker on its way to the player in the offside position, that player must be declared offside.

Frankly, I'm not so sure about the second sentence.  As in, corner taken, defenders immediately pull out but an attacker stays put, ball deflects off another attacker to the attacker who is now in an offside position.  Unless by definition, directly means any touch by a teammate means you no longer received it directly from the corner kick and anything short of possessed and played by an opponent means you received it directly from the corner.  So I'm convinced that a touch by an opponent does not - under any circumstance - require a re-evaluation of the offsides decision.

Costa Trip - Looked pretty thin to me.  Thought it was a worse call than Fred's Flop.  Didn't affect the match.

One thing to watch here is whether these referees get any more center assignments or are consigned to 4th official duty (holding up the sign and taking the brunt of the verbal abuse from the coach) for the rest of the tournament.


One-sixth of the way through the group stage - highly entertaining stuff so far. Scoring is up, the viewing does not require a big shift in daily routine (see Bob K's comment in previous post), life is good.  Happy Fathers Day to all the dads out there.

World Cup Group Stage - The Cornucopia

48 games in 15 days. Inevitable upsets. Arcane tiebreaking rules.  And all just to eliminate half the field.

BFS staff is still puzzling over exactly what to do with the blog during the World Cup.  Predictions and analysis are available from so many sources so that may not be where we'll spend our time.  The schedule is set up with very little overlap between matches so in theory you could watch up to 40 of the matches live.  Show of hands, how many work in offices that will be closed for those two weeks?  Nobody?  Guess we're still in Kansas...Anyway, one thought we had was to highlight what we think are the more critical matches in determining who gets out of group stage so you can get the most out of your viewing time.

The other thing we thought of was explaining the tiebreaker rules.  Sometimes advancing out of group play comes down to something as small as you beat the worst team in the group 4-1 while the other side only won by 3-1.  You will hear much about goal differential and goals scored as group play progresses.

The Schedule

In chronological order, key matches:

Saturday 6/14 6 pm England v Italy
Saturday 6/14 9 pm Ivory Coast v Japan

Sunday 6/15 noon Switzerland v Ecuador

Monday 6/16 6 pm Ghana v USA (uh-oh, this conflicts with basketball)

Thursday 6/19 3 pm Uruguay v England
Thursday 6/19 6 pm Japan v Greece

Saturday 6/21 6 pm Nigeria v Bosnia-Hersgov Hurtzeguvnoria the place that used to be part of Yugoslavia

Sunday 6/22 6 pm USA v Portugal

Monday 6/23 noon Chile v Netherlands
Monday 6/23 4 pm Croatia v Mexico

Tuesday 6/24 noon Italy v Uruguay
Tuesday 6/24 4 pm Greece v Ivory Coast

Thursday 6/26 noon Portugal v Ghana

Upsets will likely change the list.  And other matches may be full of drama for reasons other than who wins.  For example, Team A needs to beat Team B by at least 3 goals, which means the final minutes of a 2-0 match could be extremely intense.


Advancing Out of the Group Stage - A Guide to the Tie-breaking Procedures

The tournament starts with 32 teams divided into eight groups of four.  Each team plays the other three teams in its group once.  You get three points for a win, one point for a draw and nothing for a loss.  At the end of group play, the two teams with the most points in each group advance to the knockout rounds.

But the three matches per team often don't create much separation in the group standings and frequently teams will be tied at the end of group play.  The schedule does not allow for extra matches so they resort to a series of tie-breakers to determine which teams advance.  The first tie-breaker is who had a better goal differential (the number of goals you scored minus the number you surrendered in group matches).  The second is which team scored the most goals in the group matches.  Usually this is enough to determine who is first and second in each group.

If it is not, the next three criteria are 1) the greatest number of points obtained in the matches involving just the teams that are tied, 2) the goal differential in just those matches and 3) the greater number of goals scored in just those matches.  In point of fact, if there are only two teams tied on points, 2) and 3) don't  come into play; it's a simple matter of whether the match was a draw or not.

Still tied after all that?  The rules say ties are broken by "the drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee."  What, no rock, paper, scissors?  Needless to say, this would be a crappy way to be bounced from the tournament.

Let's run through a hypothetical example.  Assume the Group G results are as follows:

USA 2 - Ghana 1
Germany 3 - Portugal 2
USA 1 - Portugal 1
Germany 3 - Ghana 0
Portugal 1 - Ghana 0
Germany 2 - USA 1

Germany would win the group with 9 points (3 wins).  Ghana would be 4th with no points.  US and Portugal would be tied with 4 points (a win and a draw).  On goal differential they would still be tied (each scored 4 and surrendered 4).  They would also be tied with four goals scored each.  And since they drew against each other, the other tie breakers are of no use either and the matter goes to a coin flip.  But let's say the US beat Ghana 3-2 instead of 2-1.  Though the goal differential is unchanged, the US would have one more goal scored than Portugal and would advance.  Conversely, what if the US lost to Germany 3-1 instead of 2-1?  The US goal differential would be -1 and Portugal would advance.  So you can see how one goal that might seem unimportant can turn out to be the difference between moving on and going home.  And while this was a hypothetical exercise, stuff like this happens every WC tournament.


USMNT

After two matches against better opposition than Azerbaijan, the US team is looking somewhat better.  Turkey frequently exposed the US back line in the first half but couldn't score.  The US took the lead into the lockerroom because of a great play between Michael Bradley and Fabian Johnson.  Such an un-USA goal - a combination of vision and technical skill - involving a great run by Johnson, Bradley recognizing the run and lobbing a soft pass that Johnson didn't even bother to settle before depositing into the side netting. A halftime adjustment closed up the defense, Dempsey got an easy goal off a misplay by a Turkish defender, and the US held on for a 2-1 win.

For the Nigeria match, Klinsmann trotted out a new formation (4-2-3-1) that tightened up the defense without sacrificing the attack.  Not a fan of Jones or Beckerman but they seemed to do the job.  And two goals from Altidore?  Very encouraging.

Despite the label, Group G looks to me like only the third toughest group, behind Groups D (Italy, Uruguay and England) and B (Spain, Netherlands and Chile).  Group of Malaria maybe but not Group of Death.  Doesn't mean it will be easy to advance but the US chances are much better than if they'd been placed in D or B.


Better from the Union

Four points from two games.  First, they were quite efficient in a 3-0 win over Chivas; sure it's a last place side but the Union made sure they got the three points on the road.  I attended the 3-3 draw with Vancouver at PPL Park on Saturday.  Seemingly it was a reversal of fortunes but in the end, maybe not.

In the first half, the Union used great wing play and were pumping crosses, corner kicks and Sheanon Williams' throw-ins into the Whitecaps box.  But, despite having many more opportunities, the Union was down 2-0 at half because, as Jeff K pointed out, on every cross in the box Casey found himself sandwiched between defenders while the Vancouver attackers were unmarked on the few crosses into the Union box.

The Union came out strong in the second half and peppered the Vancouver net but through 62 minutes were still scoreless.  Then Casey put away a tight Maidana cross.  The crowd sensed that Vancouver was on the back heel and expected more.  A scant five minutes later Le Toux buried a wonderful pass from Noguiera (who had been sprung by a great through ball from Maidana) to draw even.  With Vancouver reeling, three points from zero seemed possible.  And at 71 minutes, Casey put away another Maidana pass and the turnaround was complete.  Alas, this was when the Union decided to return to form. A long ball freed Mattocks, and MacMath took him down in the box for a PK.  The Union keeper protested vigorously, as did fans around us; real time I thought it was a foul and the stadium replay seemed to confirm that.  Most annoyingly, MacMath had initially come out to win the loose ball but retreated back before challenging Mattocks in the box.  A much better second half and a point from a losing position but in the end, they gave away two points from a winning position.  Highly entertaining in any case.


Chester Blues

Little new to report.  Going through coaches assessments and trying to identify player roles.  Also, and I kid you not, looking into whether I need to worry that my new left back is the only player on the squad that speaks Portuguese.


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