Expectations

Sometimes the assessment of a performance has more to do with the expectations going into the match as opposed to the actual match outcome.  That would seem to be the case with this weekend's EPL results.
 

It was a bad weekend for most of the five principal teams covered by this blog - Newcastle, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United.  In fact, Newcastle's sound thrashing by Chelsea looks to be the second best (least bad?) result of the lot.  Here's how I rank them, best to worst:

1) Tottenham 1-0 victory over Everton
2) Newcastle 0-3 away loss to Chelsea
3) Aston Villa 0-2 home loss to West Ham
4) Arsenal 1-5 away loss to Liverpool
5) Manchester United 2-2 home draw with Fulham
 

Tottenham was easy - the only win in the bunch.  Newcastle wasn't too hard either - missing key players in an away loss to a top team.  From there it got harder.  I went with Aston Villa next because even though it was a home match, West Ham is pretty close in the standings and, in my opinion, talent.  The margin of Arsenal's loss played into the decision here as well - a closer match and some sign of life from the Gunners and I might have been persuaded otherwise.  In terms of sheer psychological distress, not to mention blow to their Champions League ambitions, the MU draw at home to a bottom table team on a stoppage time goal has to be the clear "winner."

Extra credit question:  Where do you put Manchester City's 0-0 draw away at Norwich on the list?

Newcastle suffered a second straight 0-3 defeat but I still don't think it's reason to push the panic button.  Against Chelsea, who had a shot at top of the table with a win, at Stamford Bridge, missing key personnel, this match had L written all over it before the opening tap.  Despite the score, this was a much better effort than the debacle against Sunderland.  The makeshift line-up did surprisingly well but were undone by two textbook give and go plays by Eden Hazard; his vision, runs and finishing were of top quality.  Yanga-Mbiwa's ridiculous grab (how did he not get a yellow card for that completely unnecessary foul?)of Eto'o in the box gave Hazard the chance to complete his hat trick via a PK, which he buried.  While the Magpies had their share of chances, their finishing was just not on the level of Chelsea's; Sissoko and Marveaux missed clear goal scoring opportunities.  Not to be an apologist for Alan Pardew, I just don't think you can fairly evaluate this team until they get back a majority of Remy, Gouffran, Tiote and Coloccini.  With Southampton's tie against Stoke, Newcastle gets to hang onto 8th place for at least a few more days.

A home match with West Ham looked like a golden opportunity for Aston Villa to put some distance between themselves and other relegation candidates.  An 0-2 loss surely can't be what they had in mind. Aside from the three points West Ham took from the victory, wins by Hull, Swansea (big victory over Cardiff in South Wales derby) and Crystal Palace ate into the small buffer the Villans had built up from the relegation zone.  I did not see the match but it reads like West Ham converted their best scoring chances while Aston Villa did not.  Dennis adds:

This was a game best left unwatched by anyone not invested in either team (and even for those of us who do care, it was unpleasant).  It was an ugly game, with two forgettable goals - a deflected backheel that found it's way in and a 1 on 1 with the keeper after a giveaway at the top of the box.  Given that I could probably have scored the second West Ham goal, it is an understatement to say that the quality of this game was somewhat lacking.  Villa had no creativity and it seemed a foregone conclusion that they would not score.  Really no positives to take away from this one, except that it didn't put the Villans all the way into 18th.

Uh-oh, are we heading for a Sports Illustrated type jinx at this blog?  In the last post, I suggested experts were dismissing Arsenal's title chances too quickly.  So the Gunners go out and lay a giant egg, losing in convincing fashion, 5-1, to Liverpool.  They fell behind in the second minute on a header by Skertl (offsides maybe?).   Skertl doubled the lead at the 10th minute with another header.  Sterling added to the lead at 16 minutes and Sturridge got one at 20 minutes.  Never seen Arsenal look so ineffective and disorganized.  When Sterling got a second to make it 5-0 early in the second half, I gave up and began Saturday errands, watching the last 35 or so minutes later on fast forward.  What a disappointment for the neutral fan; I grant that Arsenal fans may be unhappy as well.

Manchester City had a chance to move into first but managed only a 0-0 draw against Norwich.  Making sure I have this right, the top-scoring Citizens were held goalless for a second consecutive match, this time by a team that has allowed the 5th most goals in the EPL.

Sunday's early match between Champions League contenders Tottenham and Everton was competitive and wide open.  First half was filled excellent end-to-end play but terrible finishing by both sides; the second half was less wide open and the finishing was just as bad.  Except for Adebayor.  His left-footed shot off a clever quick restart and perfect pass by Kyle Walker beat Tim Howard on the near side for the only goal of the match.  Watch Walker waste no time taking the kick, Adebayor holding himself onside, controlling the pass with one touch and slotting the ball near side in this week's YouTubeable Moment.  Match commentators suggested that sound defending by both squads might have been responsible for the lack of goals.  I will say that Tottenham did look much stronger in the back - maybe because they have their preferred line up (Walker, Vertonghen, Dawson and Rose) all in one piece. The Spurs now find themselves in the Europa League qualifying fifth spot and remain just three back of Liverpool for the fourth Champions League slot.

Which brings us to Manchester United.  Fulham scored early and frustrated every MU attempt to get even.  Frankly, some of it was due to poor finishing by the Red Devils but the Cottagers were flinging their bodies around in the box to block a lot of shots.  By the 69th minute, MU had Rooney, Van Persie, Mata, Hernandez and Janusaz on the pitch but Fulham was in something like a 9-0-1-0 formation to defend.  Finally, Van Persie broke through at 78 minutes and Carrick (if the Dubious Goals Panel doesn't overrule it because of the deflection off Parker) put MU up in the 80th minute.  You had to figure that was that because MU's side of the field was virgin territory in the second half.  Except a steal by Sidwell led to a shot by Richardson that was parried by DeGea that was headed in by Darren Bent for the equalizing goal.  In the fourth minute of stoppage time.  What a kick in the gut.  Sure it's one point but should have been three and Manchester United no longer have the luxury of giving away points like that; they are nine out of the last CL spot and six out of the Europa League.

Midweek Again

With the FA Cup clogging up next weekend, everybody has midweek matches.  I guess I would be remiss if I didn't point out the FA Cup Fifth Round (Proper) fixtures include Arsenal hosting Liverpool and Manchester City hosting Chelsea.  Other matches include Sunderland at home versus Southampton and Everton hosting Swansea City; Cardiff and Hull have matches against sides from the Championship Division. I will watch with interest the line ups for the midweek matches and the FA Cup matches for clues as to how the various sides view their chances and/or the importance of the EPL race vis a vis the FA Cup.

The midweek matches:

- Newcastle hosts Tottenham (Magpies will still be depleted - would love a draw but seems optimistic)
- Aston Villa goes to Cardiff (on the road but the Villans need points from clubs below them in the table)
- Chelsea at West Brom (watch for let down but really this shouldn't be a tough match)
- Arsenal at home versus Man Utd (who will rebound better?  -  it is a home match for the Gunners)
- Man City hosts Sunderland (should be three points but the Citizens have struggled last two games)
- Everton at home versus Crystal Palace (should be three for the Toffees)
- Liverpool on the road against Fulham (Cottagers have surrendered most goals in EPL - will Suarez, Sturridge and Sterling have a field day?)

Chester Blues
A 3-0 (hat trick for Luke Freeman) win over West Brom combined with Leeds draw against Bristol City mean we need just two more points (or Leeds has to drop two points) to clinch promotion.  We could do it this cyber Saturday as we face Leeds.  Even a draw would be enough but the bookmakers have us as decided underdogs (a role we have relished all season).

Coming soon: expanded coverage of the first ever Fillebrown Derby - Newcastle vs Aston Villa on 2/23.