Didn't Mean to Be Mean to Ruud

So Newcastle roughed up Ruud van Nistelrooy's Leicester squad, pouring cold water on their new manager bounce but we really needed an easy W like that.  Especially when easy W's seem in short supply right now.

Jacob Murphy's brace could have easily been a hat trick
JAMES GILL – DANEHOUSE/GETTY IMAGES

Newcastle were all over Leicester from the opening whistle but didn't convert until the 30th minute, leaving me fully expecting to see a goal against the run of play.  Not this time, as the Magpies executed a corner play fresh off the training ground, as seen here.  Not that a 1-0 lead at half felt all that great.  Quick second half goals at 47 and 50 minutes pretty much put the thing to bed.  Murphy's second goal at 60 left no doubt.  Certainly on the screen, 4-0 looked about right (actually even a little light given some missed chances) and the stats fully back it up - possession 59-41, shots 27-4, shots on target 11-1 and xG 3.75 - .23.

Not According to Form

Martinez could only do so much to save Aston Villa
Photo:SkySports

On balance, you'd have to say the weekend was full of surprises of varying degrees.  I put Newcastle's rout in that category, though maybe not the biggest.  Liverpool went down a goal, then down a man to Fulham.  Diogo Jota rescued a 2-2 draw for the Reds.  Everton managed no shots on target and just 23% possession but still came away with a 0-0 draw against Arsenal at the Emirates no less.  Man City contined to puzzle as they looked listless for most of the match and eventually surrendered two late goals to fall to Man United in one of the more tepid Manchester derbies in recent memory.  Aston Villa duplicated that feat, allowing Nottingham Forest goals at 87 and 90+3 minutes in a 2-1 loss.  That match featured this incredible save from Emi Martinez.  

We'll include Crystal Palace's 3-1 beat down of Brighton in the non-derby derby in the list of surprises.  I include the Ipswich 2-1 win over Wolves in the group too but Dennis says Wolves are prone to late collapses so it wasn't a shock.  Thanks to Newcastle's strong showing I was able to turn one eye to the last 30 minutes of this match and it was proper relegation six-pointer.  Ipswich got the game winner at 90+4 minutes on this header from Jack Taylor.  

All of these failures to follow form are highly entertaining to the neutrals but not so much to the partisan ending up on the wrong side of the decision.

Late Goals

I counted five matches with goals after 85 minutes that affected the results:

- Liverpool in 86th minute to get a draw with Fulham

- Ipswich in 94th minute to get a win over Wolves

- Forest in 87 and then 93 to get the win over Villa

- Man United in 88 and 90 to get win over City

- West Ham score in 87 but Bournemouth get equalizer in 90th

Fleeting Grab My Ass AKA This Week in Refereeing

Several incidents of note that became talking points this week.  ESPN has a more complete review here.  I'm mostly interested in the non-penalty call against Elliot Anderson for his pullback on Aston Villa's Morgan Rogers. You can see the play here.  The word from the VAR was that Anderson's tug was a "fleeting grab."  Really?  ESPN argues that refs do seem reluctant to make that particular call but it certainly looks like a foul to me and deserved at least a look on the monitor.  I think it's likely that Sam Barrott would have concluded he made a mistake.  However, he would also notice that he missed the shirt pull on Anderson by Rogers; he didn't quite pull it over Rogers' head but it was clear.  Former EPL referee sums up nicely what should have happened:

I think it's a foul [by Rogers on Anderson before he enters the box] and he [Anderson] then grabs hold of him going into the box. I think it's then a penalty but I think the best outcome here in fairness is the VAR to recommend to the referee to go to the monitor so he has all options open. He then would have seen Rogers ripping his [Anderson] shirt right off his back and he can then give a free-kick [to Forest]. You've got the same net result of no penalty but people accept it better because that's actually happened.

Right, don't try to justify the non-call on a clear pull, but don't overlook the shirt pull in the build-up.  Seems much more honest.

I Come to Bury Antony, Not to Praise Him

Et tu Lee Dixon? Antony got a hard
 time from USA announcers

The USA broadcasting crew gave Man United winger Marcus Matheus Antony a pretty hard time on Sunday.  As Antony came onto the pitch in the 78th minute of the Manchester derby, Lee Dixon noted:

He's scored one goal in his last 40 Premier League games.  If you think he's made up for it with assists, you would be wrong.  That is a very round number.

Effing brutal as Dennis points out.  He also notes that this was perhaps not the unkindest cut of all.  During the pre-game discussion about Amiron's interesting line-up choices, one of the Robbie's said:

You wonder what Rashford and Garnacho did to not be on the bench but Antony still is.

Ouch again.  We note that United did get two goals after Antony entered the match but that may be as relevant as the fact that both came right after I went to the bathroom.

Lee Dixon was also vocal about Kyle Walker's flop after contact with Hojland.  Seen here, Dixon is absolutely correct that Walker should be embarrassed and the internet is having a field week with the footage.

BFS Halo Effect?

Last week, we did have a clip of a University of Vermont golazo and noted that UVM was playing in the NCAA semi-final Friday night vs Denver.  The Catamounts leveled that match at 1-1 in the 84th then beat Denver 4-3 in penalty kicks to advance to the final against Marshall.  In the final they again fell behind but equalized in the 81st minute before winning on a golden goal about five minutes into the first overtime period.  The winning goal came from Maximilian Kissel, seen here in this week's YouTubeableMoment; a true thrill of victory agony of defeat scene in the aftermath.  This was UVM's first national soccer title and we note that it comes after we mention them in BFS.  Coincidence?  Totally.  

Holiday Three Pack

As is usual, the schedule makers have contrived to cram three match weeks over the holiday period.  One is this weekend covering Saturday/Sunday, one is the Boxing Day extravaganza that runs Thursday and Friday and the last goes from Sunday to Wednesday.  Surprisingly there are some off days in there, including a very rare footballless Saturday (12/28).

Newcastle's schedule has them at Ipswich on Saturday, home versus Aston Villa on Boxing Day and at Old Trafford on Monday 12/30 to face Man United.  I realize that it is silly to say the expected haul could range from zero to nine points.  But, all three fixtures are tricky yet are also winnable.  We really should beat Ipswich, even at their place.  Villa are tough but we are home.  And Man United are a real enigma.  Zero seems unlikely but three or less could easily happen.

With so many fixtures, I'll just try to suggest what could be highlights, fully cognizant that my track record is not so good.

We would watch anyway but think the 7:30 Saturday matchup between Aston Villa and Man City is one to check out.  For some reason, I'm always more optimistic about Villa's chances in games like this compared to Newcastle.  Sunday's best choice looks like Spurs - Liverpool at 11:30.  As a warmup, you might want to check out a relegation six-pointer at 9 am between Leicester and Wolves.

For Boxing Day, though I'm biased, Newcastle - Aston Villa looks like the best choice.  In fact, we have a beef with the schedulers who chose Bournemouth - Crystal Palace over the BFS derby for the USA game.  It's not even the seconde best choice - Nottingham Forest vs Spurs looks more interesting.  Actually the Thursday/Friday contests are mostly upper table versus lower table affairs.

Slight schedule change next week - we will post on Saturday rather than Friday as the match week doesn't start until Sunday.  Enjoy the holidays - watch football whenever you can. 

Mediocrity It Is

At least for the moment.

By itself, Newcastle's 4-2 loss Brentford at their place isn't a disaster given that the Bees haven't lost at home yet this year.  The Magpies did rally twice from first half deficits to level things.  Expected goals slightly favor Newcastle (1.64 -1.47).  And the last goal was in the 90th minute when Newcastle were working hard to rescue a draw so the margin of the loss is slightly overstated.  

Mbeumo would look good in a Newcastle kit; at least
he wouldn't be scoring against us (Photo Getty Images)

Still, we must conclude that the glass is about 7/8ths empty.  First, while the first half performance (2-2) was acceptable, they went silent offensively in the second half.  Of their 16 shots, only three were on target.  Brentford's xG was just 1.47 so either the Bees were lucky or Newcastle made some defensive mistakes.  Thinking it's the latter.  Bryan Mbeumo (a possible Magpie transfer target in January) ghosted past Hall far too easily on the first goal. The second Brentford goal came from an "own assist" as Harvey Barnes made a perfect back pass to Wissa, who took a few dribbles then made nice finish.  The game winner was a free kick from the Brentford half of the pitch that landed untouched in the Newcastle penalty area before Nathan Collins slotted it past Pope.  You get the picture.  

We are who we thought we were - a team that will struggle to stay in the top half of the table.

Liverpool Fail To Get Points

Darragh: First to not let Liverpool get any points since
Nottingham Forest on 9/14

Of course, it was Storm Darragh, not any EPL side, that gets the credit.  The Merseyside Derby - the last scheduled at historic Goodison Park - was postponed by high winds and rain.  Given the weather we saw at most of the other venues on Saturday, I'm guessing the threshold for postponing due to high winds must be something over 40 mph.  

Many in the chase pack did not take advantage of Liverpool's off day.  Arsenal could manage only a 1-1 draw with Fulham, seeing a potential game winner ruled out for offside in the 88th minute.  Same for Man City, who's woes continued with a 2-2 draw at Selhurst Park against Crystal Palace; they had to rally twice from one goal deficits to get that.  I suppose we should include Brighton's 2-2 draw with Leicester in this group too.

Three sides who did take advantage were Chelsea (4-3 over Spurs), Aston Villa (a decidely mediocre 1-0 win over Southampton, albeit with a rotated lineup) and Nottingham Forest (a bit of a lucky 3-2 victory at Old Trafford).  Not coincidentally, those three sides now sit in the top six.

The Silver Lining Is Getting Really Hard To Find

The only good news for Ipswich this weekend was that the two clubs behind them - Wolves and Southampton - both lost.  I guess Everton not playing was good too.  The dark cloud part is that the Tractor Boys lost another close one at home in a most disturbing way.  They carried a 1-0 lead over Bournemouth late into the match before the Cherries scored in the 87th minute and then again at 90+5 to take all three points.  To make matters worse, the three sides immediately ahead of them in the table all got points.  Leicester and Palace got draws while West Ham got three in a win over Wolves.

Not A Good Sign

When Google text wants to autocorrect your name from Amorim to "a moron."  Ruben Amoron Amirom continues to find life in the EPL not so easy as Man United lost to Forest 2-3 at Old Tratford.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: How many kits do you have and why is one of them claret?

Steve: Moichandizing. Never underestimate the power of the Schwartz.

Dennis: Newcastle the Breakfast Cereal is just beer, right?

Steve: Nailed it.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis:  Did you say that Arteta is a born-again Christian

Steve: No I said he's giving Jesus another chance

Mixed Results in Europe

The quintessential better to be lucky than good:
Barkley's shot took a massive deflection and Villa win 3-2

Aston Villa did not exactly shake the cobwebs out but did manage an important 3-2 win over RB Leipzig in their Champions League match on Tuesday.  Ross Barkley got the game winner but the YouTubeableMoment was the strike from Jhon Duran minutes after he entered the match.  Dennis points out that most players do not score on that play simply because they would never consider taking that shot.  Liverpool got the win but hardly impressed in a 1-0 result over Girona.  Still, this was better than Man City, who lost again, this time 2-0 to Juventus.  Only Arsenal coasted in a 3-0 win over Monaco.  

Liverpool are still top the table with a perfect record and need just one point from the last two group stage matches to get a bye into the knockout round.  Arsenal and Aston Villa are third and fifth respectively and I believe only need one more point to guarantee a spot in the playoffs for a knockout berth; of course they could also still qualify for a bye.  Man City's prospects aren't as rosy. They sit 22nd and have just a one point cushion for a playoff berth.  In other words, they have work to do.

Over in Europa Cup, Spurs had to work their butts off to get a 1-1 draw with Rangers; they are still looking good for a spot in the playoffs for a knockout round berth.  Man United saw their stock rise with a 2-1 come from behind win over Viktoria Plezn (not even sure who she is) and are looking good for advancement to the playoffs as well.  Chelsea cruised to a 3-1 win over Astana in Europa Conference League; they are still top of the table, perfect through five matches.

Wait, so you're telling me that of the seven EPL teams competing in Europe, Man City is the only one in jeopardy of getting bounced out in the group stage?

About Those Two Goal Leads

You know we don't buy that old saw that a two goal lead is the most dangerous in soccer.  The EPL coverage made sure that you knew that Spurs and Brighton both coughed up two goal leads this weekend.  Yeah, but Nottingham Forest and Brentford didn't; okay Brentford didn't get their two goal cushion until the 90th minute but it still counts.  We also note that mid-week, Arsenal and Chelsea both survived that "most dangerous of leads" and that Juventus seemed to have no trouble protecting their two goal margin against Man City.  

ICYMI

The TV ratings suggest that maybe you did.  The LA Galaxy bested NY Red Bulls 2-1 in the MLS Cup Final.  The match was fun for a while, with three goals in 28 minutes.  Tricked me into watching the whole thing.  We note that LA were up 2-0 and did not lose so there's another data point.  Also, you can read about the TV ratings here; in 2022 the figure was 2.16m, 2023 was 890k and 2024 was 468k.  Note that 2022 is not directly comparable with 2023 and 2024 because people may have watched those last two on MLS Season Pass.  We can't know because Apple won't release their viewing numbers.  

College Kids Can Do It Too

BFS Track and Field Guru Jack W sends us this video, showing that golazos are not entirely the province of the pros.  [Post publication note: UVM, featured in this video has made it to the NCAA semi-finals and is playing Friday evening at 5 pm against Denver on ESPN+ or ESPNU - thanks to Nancy F for the heads up.]

But Apparently"Old"Guys Can't

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends us this video that highlights the downs and downs of Sunday afternoon pickup games.  Not sure which is, uh, "funnier" - the pulled hamstring or the wide open shot that clanks against the post.

Less Frantic

Well, a little bit anyway.  You can do six fixtures live this weekend, thanks to an extra Sunday slot.  Some interesting matchups from various parts of the table.  And no 7:30 Saturday fixture.

There are four choices at 10 am Saturday.  By contract, we have to watch Newcastle - Leicester from Saint James' Park on USA; Opta has the Magpies as big favorites but I'm not buying it.  There's a big relegation six-pointer with Wolves hosting Ipswich.  Your other two choices are Arsenal - Everton or Liverpool -Fulham; with the home field advantage, we don't see Arsenal or Liverpool struggling in either, so of course you should watch them.

Love the 12:30 feature match on NBC between Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa.  The two are level on points with Forest having a one goal advantage on goal differential.  We note that those differentials are just +1 and 0 yet they sit fifth and sixth respectively in the table; one might ask how they got that far up the table.  Opta says it's close and that's probably a reflection of Forest being at home; to me it seems like this is a chance for a top six team to expose a pretender.

On Sunday you can warm up for the Manchester derby with Brighton - Crystal Palace at 9.  The derby is at 11:30; Opta has City as a healthy favorite but there's been nothing healthy about their recent form.  Not that Man United have shone either; they're behind Newcastle in the table for crying out loud.  The Sunday bonus at 2 pm has Chelsea - Brentford (USA) or Southampton - Spurs (Peacock).  The week concludes with Bournemouth - West Ham at 3 pm on Sunday.

Fun stuff

Consistently Inconsistent

Originally this was going to be a post about how mediocrity would be a step up for Newcastle.  Then they pulled off the unlikely draw with Liverpool.  Better to complain about inconsistency than mediocrity I guess.  Plus, I have lots of company - looking at you Aston Villa and Spurs fans.

.02 Expected Goals?

In Saturday's match with Crystal Palace, Newcastle set a new low for offensive irrelevance.  They managed one shot, not on target and registered an xG of .02.     You have to work really hard to do that badly.  The funny thing was that the Magpies carried a 1-0 lead late into stoppage time thanks to a Palace own goal.  On the one hand, it was frustrating to lose the points on a late goal but on the other, even one point from that showing was grand larceny.  Palace at Selhurst Park is never a piece of cake but this was ridiculous.

Schar just barely gets to the equalizer

So we went into Wednesday's match against a decidedly in-form Liverpool with zero expectations.  What a shock to see them go toe-to-toe with the league leader.  Isak's opening goal (a screamer seen here) was certainly not against the run of play.  The contest went back and forth from there, with Liverpool leveling at 1-1, Newcastle scoring to make in 2-1 and Salah scoring two to put Liverpool up 3-2.  This looked like the reverse of Saturday - no points for a good effort.  They rescued a point on a free kick into the box by Guimaraes that Fabian Schar somehow reached before it went over the end line and slipped into the goal.  An easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  I saw several references to this match as the best game of the year.  Sometimes it's okay if it's your team involved in a great game for the neutral.

WDWWLDDLLWWLDD

No, that's not Welsh for "hello" but rather Newcastle's form over the season's first 14 matches.  They don't have a website anymore because they can't put three w's together.  As the euphoria of Wednesday's draw wears off, we awake to the reality that this is a wildly inconsistent team sitting 12th in the table.  

When Did Virgil van Dijk Become A Thug?

Twice during the Newcastle match, van Dijk "ran into" Newcastle players not any where near the ball.  First, the 6'5" defender clocked 5'10" Lewis Hall for which he was called for a foul.  Then he went after "bigger" game in the form of 6'0" Anthony Gordon, making sure he got his shoulder into Gordon's head.  He got away with that one, presumably because the referee did not see it and was not red card worthy and therefore not subject to VAR.  I used to like him.

A League of Their Own?

After a relatively easy 2-0 win over Man City on Sunday, Liverpool were looking to be in a division of their own.  The draw with Newcastle (you're welcome, rest of the league) slowed that roll a little but the Reds still have have a seven point lead over both Chelsea and Arsenal and are up nine points on Man City.  

Dropping Points

Only three sides failed to drop points this week.  Chelsea got wins over Aston Villa and Southampton.  Arsenal beat West Ham and Man United (surprisingly easily on two corners).   Bournemouth handled Wolves and Tottenham. The Villa loss to Chelsea was more of an issue of performance rather than result, as that was always a tough match.  They did rebound with a solid win over Brentford but their inconsistency is troubling.  Spurs came away with just one point from matches with Fulham and Bournemouth.  At the dark end of the street, Ipswich, Wolves and West Ham got nothing.

In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL.  Hey Michael, you're still ahead of Newcastle,if only on goal differential. 

A Sliver of a Silver Lining

Mateta's goal was the difference in the relegation
six-pointer between Ipswich and Palace
Photograph: Tony O Brien/Reuters

An Ipswich fan would be hard pressed to find anything good that came out of week of 1-0 losses to Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace, especially given that the latter is a relegation rival.  The good news is that another relegation rival - Wolves - lost their matches 4-2 (vs Bournemouth) and 4-0 (to Everton).  Based on the relative margin of losses, Ipswich moved past Wolves and into 18th place based on the change in goal differential.  Surprised how tepid both sides were in the Palace match; I'd been looking for some intensity given their positions in the nether region of the table but it was a real snoozer.  

Another Busy Week Ahead

Saturday dawns with a 7:30 Merseyside Derby, likely the last at Goodison Park.  Unfortunately the schedule makers put both Aston Villa (vs Southampton) and Newcastle (at Brentford) at 10 am.  The latter is sadly a clash of mid-table sides that Newcastle need to win if they are to be taken seriously as a top half of table team.  Actually, Villa is in the same situation only more so; they simply have to beat Southampton. The other 10 am choice is Crystal Palace hosting Man City.  Best choice for neutral is probably Brentford - Newcastle.

The 12:30 feature match on NBC is Man United - Nottingham Forest.  That would be 13th place versus 7th place.  Despite position in the table, United are solid favorites.  Even more fun is that if they do win, they will pass Forest in the table, an indication of how compressed the mid-table is.

Sunday has the marquee match of the weekend with Spurs hosting Chelsea (11:30 on USA).  Even on the road, Chelsea are healthy favorites in this one.  The three 9 am appetizers are Fulham - Arsenal, Ipswich - Bournemouth and Leicester - Brighton.  Not much to recommend there but we'll probably go with Ipswich as we have taken a sudden interest in the Tractor Boys struggle to avoid relegation.

Speaking of relegation, there is a Monday match featuring West Ham and Wolves.  Six points above the drop zone, maybe the Hammers aren't in relegation jeopardy yet but they need to win matches like this one to keep it that way.

It's also a European competition week, which means matches Tuesday-Thursday.  We thank the schedulers for staggering the start times to maximize viewing.  Tuesday you can do Girona - Liverpool at 12:45 and RB Leipzig - Aston Villa at 3.  Wednesday the EPL sides play concurrently with Juventus - Man City and Arsenal -Monaco both at 3 pm.  Thursday you can do a triple header! Start with Astana - Chelsea at 10:30, Viktoria Plezn (I didn't make that up) - Man United at 12:45 and Rangers - Spurs at 3.  Hey no fair, I have a planning board meeting Thursday that means I might only see Spurs.

If you care about this, the MLS Cup Final is Saturday at 4 pm between the LA Galaxy (2 seed) and NY Red Bulls (7 seed) on Fox.  Both were 1-0 winners in their conference finals.  I did watch both (Laura and Mackenzie were watching other stuff on Saturday night); the matches weren't awful but I remember little except LA scored late when it looked like it might go to extra time.  

Not many off days in December.

Wrong Again?

Once again we were largely off the mark with our assessment of the which games were likely to offer better viewing.  We will put some of the blame on the Opta predictions. Also annoying was the dropped points for BFS sides.

I Waited All Weekend For That?

Was Wilson fouled?VAR didn't send the ref to the monitor. RICHARD LEE/REX/SHUTTERSTOCK

I wasn't expected an easy time of it facing West Ham even at home.  I was expecting something better than that though.  Newcastle did have the early run of play but didn't really threaten.  The Hammers first offensive foray generated a corner, from which Soucek neatly headed in the opening goal.  First score from a corner for them this season, first one allowed by the Magpies.  Tried to shrug it off but unlike at Forest two weeks ago, the early tally did not shake Newcastle from their torpor.  When Wan-Bissaka turned another counter into the second goal, this match seemed over.  And it was; 2-0 was the final.  This was a true turkey of a performance as they generated just two shots on target.  Given that they took 18 total shots and had an xG of 1.57, we can fairly blame this loss on the lack of clinical finishing, a phrase I'm pretty sure we've used with respect to this team more than once this season.  They blew a chance to move into sixth and now sit 10th, near the bottom of mid-table.

The Dreaded Interesting Match For the Neutrals

D'oh; Tielemans reacts to his PK miss
Jacob King / PA Images / Profimedia

The news from Villa Park was very similar, where Aston Villa struggled against Crystal Palace, a side
they should be able to handle with relative ease.  Instead, they spent the match chasing the Eagles and could only manage a 2-2 draw.  The early goal by Sarr was not all that disturbing, except for the fact that Villa seem highly susceptible to easy counterattacks these days.  The general confidence seemed well-founded when Watkins leveled at 36 minutes.  With Tielemans all set to convert a PK right before halftime, things were looking good.  Except he missed and within a minute, Palace scored at the other end.  Ross Barkley rescued a point for Villa with a  header goal in the 77th minute.  All in all, an entertaining match, which is exactly what Aston Villa didn't need.

We Do the Maddison Blues (apologies to George Thorogood)

As expected, Man City jumped all over Tottenham right from the get go.  Except it was James Maddison who opened the scoring with a clinical one touch finish off a Kulusevski cross.  We make that play this week's YouTubeableMoment.  More domination by City leading to a second goal against the run of play by Maddison, assisted by Son this time.  Continued pressure from City the rest of the way during which Spurs added two more for a final of 4-0.  This leads to the question of how many goals do you have score against the run of play before you really can't call it the run of play anymore?  Sure, Man City had 57.6% of the possession and 23 shots (vs 9 for Spurs).  But Spurs had more shots on target (7-5) and the better xG (2.69-2.10).  Rock away your blues indeed.

Meet the New Boss, Same As the Old Boss (apologies to The Who)

Not much of a new manager bounce for Man United, as they could do no better than a 1-1 draw at Ipswich.  Ruben Amorin saw his team jump out to a 1-0 lead with a goal from Marcus Rashford in just the second minute.  That was all the scoring the Red Devils would manage and Ipswich leveled things just before halftime.  And 1-1 was how it ended.  Kind of like the Man City - Spurs match statistically.  United had more possession (nearly 60%) but shots were even and Ipswich had more shots on target (6-4) and better xG (1.73-.97).  Amorin has been quite public that he thinks the team will need time to adapt to his methods.  That's fine but given the average tenure of managers (not counting caretakers) at Man United has been about two years, probably don't want to take too long. 

That Must Have Been Some Cushion

So Man City have lost three straight EPL matches and yet they still sit second in the table, one point ahead Chelsea, Arsenal and Brighton.  Brighton have gained six points, Chelsea five and Arsenal four over the last three matches.  City's stumbles have brought some teams closer but it would be silly to right them off at this point, partly because it's not clear the chase pack is of the highest quality.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: Did VAR Michael Oliver say that was a foul in the small of the back?

Steve: No, he said there was small contact in the back, not worthy of a foul.

Wolverhampton Officials Questioned As To Whereabouts at 5:10 pm on Sunday

As reported here, VAR service was temporarily shut down during the Ipswich - Man United contest after a fire alarm forced the evacuation of the control center at Stockley Park.  The outage wasn't all that long and no incidents requiring VAR attention occurred during the shutdown.

Sensing possible foul play from disgruntled parties, EPL official developed a short list of suspects after reviewing this chart prepared by ESPN.

Wolves officials were scampering for alibis.

The View From Europe

For the Champions League, the EPL sides looked to have continued their domestic league form.  Liverpool (2-0 over Real Madrid) and Arsenal (5-1 over Sporting) stayed hot.  Aston Villa put up another mediocre performance and managed only a 0-0 draw at home with Juventus.  Man City fared even worse, snatching a 3-3 draw from the jaws of victory, surrending three late goals to Feyernoord.  Liverpool are perfect through five matchdays and have a two point lead at the top.  Arsenal's win puts them in the top eight while Aston Villa are now in the playoff group at 9th, as are Man City at 17th.  

Tottenham coughed up a late goal and drew with Roma 2-2.  Man United did better, albeit against an easier opponent, getting a 3-2 win over Bodo/Glint.  Both are now outside the automatic eight spots but do look good for advancement to the playoff phase at 9th and 12th.  Chelsea didn't exactly blow Heidenheim away at 2-0 but they remain perfect through four matches.

In short, all seven EPL sides look good to continue in Europe for a while.

How Ya Gonna Keep 'Em Down on the Farm?

Speaking of Feyernood, former Union striker Julian Carranza started in that match against Man City.  He had quiet game, one shot and 26 touches in 72 minutes.  But it does highlight the dilemma faced by MLS sides. Why would Carranza want to stick around Philly when he can be playing Champions League football against the best clubs in Europe?  The answer of course, is that he wouldn't.

Be A Shame If Something Happened to Your Playoffs

The MLS playoff bracket took two more hits this weekend as No. 1 seed LAFC fell 1-2 to Seattle and No.7 Red Bull advanced to the Eastern Conference final with a win over NYC.  The Galaxy and Orlando did make it through as No. 2 and No. 4 seeds.  So the East final is 4 v 7 while the West features 2 v 4.  Perfect.  Both matches are Saturday with Orlando vs Red Bulls at 7:30 and LA Galaxy vs Seattle at 10.  On MLS Season Pass.  Nuff said.

Twice the Fun

This is two match match week for the EPL.  Match day 13 goes from Friday - Sunday and Match day 14 runs Tuesday - Thursday.  The "big one" is first place Liverpool hosting second place Man City at 11:00 on Sunday.  Already up by eight points,  a win for the Reds would give them an unfathomable 11-point lead.  The two teams couldn't be in more opposite forms. Liverpool haven't lost in 15 matches across all competitions; Man City haven't won in six. Opta has it 45% for Liverpool win, 25% draw, 30% City win.

A second match to keep an eye on is Chelsea - Aston Villa at 8:30 on Sunday.  Opta has Chelsea as a big favorite and that's probably fair given Aston Villa's recent run of mediocre form.  Still holding out hope that the Villans make this a contest.  Wednesday's Arsenal - Man United fixture might be good too.

Don't forget a welcome Friday afternoon fixture -  the non-derby between Brighton and Southampton.  As noted in the article, they are too far apart and they really don't care about each other for this to be a derby.  I'll still watch, especially on a holiday Friday afternoon.

Newcastle have Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park Saturday at 10 (Peacock), then get Liverpool at home on Wednesday at 2:30 (aslo Peacock).  I'm bracing for one point out of the two contests and hope I'm not being too optimistic.

Opta numbers for the mid-week matches aren't available yet but I'm guessing Fulham - Brighton on Thursday (Peacock) may be predicted as the closest match this season.  Brighton are the better side overall but not by that much and with this one at Craven Cottage, Fulham could make it a close one.  For those watching relegation developments, you'll want to check out Ipswich - Crystal Palace on Tuesday at 2:30 (Peacock).  

Hope you enjoy your Monday off.

Turkey With All the Trimmings

Nine straight days of football sounds like a cornucopia to me.

In Poch we trust? (Getty Images)

Not much to write about this week though.  I didn't see the first leg of the US - Jamaica CONCACAF Nations League quarter; looks like the highlight might have been Matt Turner's PK save in a 1-0 US win.  I did watch the second leg, a 4-2 US victory that didn't seem that close.  That may have been because I was thinking about the aggregate score and at one point early in the second half it was 4-0.  This was the most reliably dangerous I can remember the US being in a while.  Pulisic's opening goal is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Sure, there wasn't much action this week but it could have been the moment on any packed week.  The cross from McKennie was perfectly weighted and the finish was sublime.  The US will face Panama in one semi while Canada and Mexico will square off the in the other on March 20th.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Some Jamaican players missed the second leg because they had their credit cards stolen?

Steve: No, they couldn't travel with the team because they lost their visas

Our Cup Runneth Over

There's an EPL match week spread over three days this weekend followed by three days of European competition and the EPL picks up on Friday for three more days.

We're back to those 7:30 Saturday matches but at least Leicester - Chelsea will be on USA so you can DVR it - and possibly fast forward through as it doesn't look like a close one.   The five choices at 10 am are a mixed bag.  We will be going with Aston Villa - Crystal Palace, though we are expecting (hoping?) it will be an easy day for the Villans.  The best choice for the neutral is probably Bournemouth hosting Brighton; the Cherries are near the bottom of a huge mid-table but home field advantage should make this an interesting contest.  Certainly better than, say, Arsenal hosting Nottingham Forest; though they are level on points, the Gunners are big favorites here (68/14/19 at Opta). A little surprised to see Everton a slight favorite over Brentford, suggesting that this one might be decent too.  Your last choice is Fulham - Wolves. 

The NBC feature match is one that likely won't bring Michael B out of retirement.  Spurs have to face Man City at the Etihad, never an easy task.  Add in that City have lost four straight and it seems even more daunting.  Opta thinks so too with the percentages at 60/20/20.

Sunday has just two fixtures and neither look all that great.  Liverpool face Southampton on the coast at 9 am while Ipswich host Man United at 11:30.  Both are on USA.

Wait, what about Newcastle?  They are Monday at 3 pm, facing West Ham at Saint James' Park.  I have mildly positive expectations for this one.  The Hammers lost to Forest 0-3 and a week later Newcastle beat them 3-1; under the transitive property of arithmetic, that should mean a 6-1 Magpie win.  Yeah, I'll probalby be disappointed.

Champions League Matchday 5 of 8 plays out over Tuesday and Wednesday.  Man City (home to Feyenoord) and Arsenal (away to Sporting) play Tuesday at 3 pm.  You can stuff your turkey to Aston Villa - Juventus or Liverpool - Real Madrid at 3 pm on Wednesday.

But wait, there's more.  On Turkey Day we have Chelsea going to Heidenheim in Europa Conference League action at 12:45.  Then you can do Tottenham - Roma or Man United - Boba Fett Bodo/Glint at 3 pm, safe in the knowledge that either will be over before it's time for dinner.  Beats watching the Cowboys for sure.

I guess we should point out that the MLS conference semis are Saturday and Sunday.  I note that all are only available on MLS Season Pass, with the exception of LA - Minnesota at 6 pm on Sunday.  The other fixtures are NYC - Red Bull at 5:30 on Saturday, LAFC - Seattle at 10:30 on Saturday and Orlando - Atlanta at 3:30 on Sunday.  I guess there's a slight chance I'll see the two "late" matches if my "give-a-shit" meter hits a certain threshold.

More Interesting Results

Another batch of interesting results.  Interesting could be good or bad depending on your team.

Newcastle Beat the Forest for the Three

Though not at pretty as Joelinton's, Isak's goal got
Newcastle moving in the right direction (Nick Potts)

See what I did there?   Heading to an in-form Nottingham Forest, Newcastle were expecting a tough contest.  At the outset Forest were the better side and deserved their opening goal at 22 minutes by Murillo.  That did serve as a wake-up call and the Magpies started to take over from there.  That pressure wouldn't pay off until 54 minutes, when Isak got the equalizer.  They fairly well dominated the rest of the way and Joelinton got one at 72 minutes and Barnes added another at 83.  After being guilty of poor marking on the Forest goal, Joelinton was a force on both sides of the ball from there on in; earning a few 10's at some of the player rating sites.  His curling shot from just inside the box is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The win moves them to 8th in the table, shockingly just one point out of third. We note that Newcastle have given up just 10 goals this season, behind only Liverpool (6!) and Forest (10).

Dropped Points Everywhere 

Well almost everywhere.  Seven of the top 10 sides going into the weekend failed to win, with only Liverpool, Brighton and Fulham coming away with all three points. Liverpool didn't play all that well but were better than tepid Aston Villa and deserved their 2-0 win.  Brighton got one of the big upsets, getting two late goals to send Man City to their fourth straight defeat across all competitions.  Chelsea and Arsenal came into the weekend level on 18 points and exited level on 19 points after a 1-1 draw; from what I remember the first half wasn't too good but the second half was a little more interesting.  Spurs inexplicably lost to Ipswich while Bournemouth fell 2-3 to Brentford in what looks like a lively mid-table affair.

Ipswich Get First Premier League Win Since 2002

The Tractor Boys last won a top flight match in April of 2002 so their 2-1 win over Spurs was a big deal.  It also moved them out of the bottom three.  We should note that they were out of the Premier League from August 2002 until this past summer so they can be excused for not getting any wins.  Check out this bicycle kick goal from Sammie Szmodics that gave Ipswich the lead.

In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows English football.

Gappage But Also A Robust Mid-table

The largest spread in the table right now is the five points between first place Liverpool and second place Man City.  The next biggest gap is City's four point lead over third place Chelsea. Then, there are 11 teams separated by just four points, running from Chelsea to 13th place Man United. 

This Week In Refereeing  

Mostly a quiet week as we wrapped up intramural play.  We had one player who refused to take off a bandana that he was wearing as a neckerchief.  Law 4 says "a player must not use any equipment or wear anything that is dangerous"but it doesn't specifically references neckerchiefs.   Sigh, I guess we will have to send a memo out at the beginning of next season making it clear that neckerchiefs are considered unsafe and must be removed.  

The biggest news was clearly the release of videos of David Coote making disparaging remarks about Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp.  The story is here.  This reminds me of Too Long in the Wasteland by James McMurtry:

but whiskey don't make liars

it just makes fools

so I didn't mean to say it

but I meant what I said

Coote was suspended and the betting line is that he won't referee in the EPL again.  Dennis points out that many referees probably feel this way about Klopp or maybe some other coach they've been reamed by but the real question is did it affect their refereeing?  Most likely not.  Coote's indiscretion was saying it out loud.  His biggest problem may not be referring to Klopp as the "c" word but rathering including "German" in the list as well.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Brenna: MLS playoffs are a best of three?

Dennis: Only for the first round.

Brenna: That's so dumb.

MLS Cupertino Overlords Are Crying in Their Chardonnay

Speaking of "so dumb," how did those first round playoffs work out?  Well, surely Apple had been counting on Lionel Messi's Miami team featuring regularly on their telecasts through November but that won't happen now as they were busted by Atlanta in the third match of that series.  I love this quote from The Inquirer's Jonathan Tannenwald:

The soccer world hasn’t stopped moving just because the Union’s season is over. Or even after Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami was dramatically booted from the MLS playoffs in the first round on Saturday night, which left a box of eggs on the league and Apple’s faces.

Columbus and Cincinnati also lost their Game 3's as well, which means the Eastern Conference semi finals feature the 4, 6, 7 and 9 seeds.  Had they gone with one game playoffs, it would have been 1,3,4 and 7.  The West fared somewhat better and will see 1,2,4 and 6 play in the conference semis; it would have been the same outcome for a one game playoff as well.

To be clear, we're not necessarily advocating for one game playoffs.  Our preference would be fewer teams (four from each conference?) using the home-and-home aggregate score approach.  But that wouldn't produce enough product to fill their programming needs.  

Of course, you can accuse Champions League of doing the same thing with their expanded eight-game group stage.  No doubt, it was about more money from more matches.  However, I'd argue that far from mangling the competition, the new format has made it more interesting.  The old four team groups limited the match ups and meant that one bad result could keep a good side from advancing.  The eight-game format will do a better job of sorting out the quality teams.  

And while we're trashing MLS playoffs, how about the fact that after finishing the first round, they dont' play again until the weekend of 11/23 because of the international break.  For LA and Minnesota, who needed only two matches to clinch their series, this means they will go three weeks without a match.  Way to build the drama.  I know MLS doesn't have control over when the international breaks are scheduled but they could have tailored their playoff format and schedule to deal with it.

USMNT were up 1-0 on Jamaica when I posted this.  They play the second leg Monday night.

Between working on my dad's eulogy and two beers, this is all I got tonight.

A Box of Chocolates

Got to see a little more than I expected.  Some interesting results.

Gordon's cross was superb but so was his defense

Top of that list was Newcastle's 1-0 triumph over Arsenal.  They did an excellent job frustrating Arsenal and converted their best chance of the day, a great cross by Gordon to Isak, who did not miss this time. An easy pick for this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  This was the best we've seen from Gordon in a few matches but others stepped up too.  Though xG says a draw would have been a fair result, I thought the Magpies earned the W.  The annoying part is that even with many others around us in the table dropping points, somehow we still sit 11h in the table.  

Liverpool took their time but eventually won out over Brighton 2-1.  Others weren't so lucky.  We already noted Arsenal's defeat.  Man City were tripped up 2-1 by Bournemouth; those of us who have dropped points to the Cherries feel a little better now.  Villa fell hard (1-4) to Tottenham. That the Spurs took all three at home isn't a huge surprise but the manner in which they did it was; trailing 0-1 at half, Tottenham put up four unanswered goals with Villa looking totally at sea.  Chelsea ended up dropping points as well, drawing 1-1 with Man United.   

Not a surprise result, but Nottingham Forest's 3-0 over West Ham combined with some scores elsewhere has them third place in the table.  No one has fewer losses (one) and they have conceded fewer goals (seven) than anybody else except Liverpool (six).  Ten games in for sure but still a great start for them.

What was I supposed to do?  Leicester's Kalvin
Phillips is about to get his second yellow (Getty Images)

Some fun stuff at the bottom of the table.  Southampton got their first win, a 1-0 squeaker over Everton that survived a late goal from the Toffees that was ruled out for offside.  The result moved the Saints all the way from 20th to 19th.  Ipswich were on the verge of getting their first win when they surrendered a goal in stoppage time, leaving them to settle with their fifth draw of the season.  They were clearly not helped by Kalvin Phillips' second yellow, which meant they played the last 15+ minutes down a man.  Didn't get to see it but the second half of Wolves - Crystal Palace looks wild with four goals between 60-77 minutes; the 2-2 draw doesn't really help either side.

The Monday mid-table contest between Fulham and Brentford wasn't all the exciting, except for stoppage time.  Harry Wilson came on at 82 minutes with the Cottagers trailing 0-1.  He then proceeded to net two in stoppage time to give Fulham an improbable 2-1 win.   You can see the second one here, complete with the home announcers' call.  In truth, Fulham really were pushing Brentford all over the place in the second half and the xG says this was a fair result.

Losing For the Cycle

Man City and Aston Villa both completed an odd triple over the last week, losing in three different competitions.  A week ago Wednesday, City lost to Spurs in the Carabao Cup. On Saturday, they fell in their EPL contest to Bournemouth.  Completing the fun week, they were pummeled by Sporting in their Champions League fixture on Tuesday.   Villa dropped the Carabao Cup tie to Crystal Palace, were pretty well-beaten by Tottenham, then lost 1-0 to Club Brugge on the strangest PK call you'll ever see. Martinez set the ball down inside the six for a goal kick and passed it to Mings, who inexplicably picked it.  You can see the play here; he must have felt Martinez was giving it to him to take the goal kick.  Yes, that was the only goal of the match but Villa played poorly anyway and probably deserved the loss.

Rude Awakening for the EPL

When we last checked, the four Premier League entrants in the Champions League were doing very well, thank you.  Oops, three of them hit speed bumps this week.  Liverpool were fine, coasting to a 4-0 win over Leverkusen; they stay top of table with a perfect record halfway through the group stage.  As we noted above, Man City and Aston Villa dropped their matches; Villa stay in the top eight but City are now 10th, outside the automatic advancement to the knockout rounds.  Arsenal also fell, 1-0 to Inter on a very cheap (we thought incorrect) handball call; they are in 12th.

In the Europa League, Tottenham also saw their perfect record go by the boards, losing 3-2 to Galatasary; they fall to 7th in the standings.  Man United did get a win over PAOK, their first in the competition and they are now in 15th.  Over in the Europa Conference League, Chelsea were unaffected by the EPL bug and beat Noah 8-0 to remain perfect in that competition.  Looking at that scoresheet, Chelsea appear to have gotten two of every kind of goal.

What Do West Virginia and Old Trafford Have In Common?

Really nothing as far as I can tell but they play John Denver's "Take Me Home, Country Roads" before the start of each half at Man United home games.  Red Devils fan Jeff H sends along this video explaining the connnection.  Still seems like a stretch to me.

Yellow Balls Are Back

A pictoral history of yellow balls 

We are remiss in not pointing out that the EPL switched to the winter yellow ball a few weeks ago.  This article goes over the history and rationale for this hallowed EPL tradition.  They say it's to improve visibility but it feels like merchandising to me.

Curtains for Jim

Dennis said even if it is a lay-up, I could use that header for the section discussing the sacking of Jim Curtin.  After a season like that, you know the manager's role in the debacle will be scrutinized.  However, I thought Curtin would survive that scrutiny.  This team's fate was sealed back in the winter when they decided to roll the dice with basically the same crew for one more year.  It's true there have been times during Curtin's tenure that I felt he was too deferential to the experienced players and sometimes didn't make subsitutions as early and often as he needed to.  That wasn't the case this year and in some other years too - you'd look at the bench and ask who exactly would you bring in to make things better?

Aside from thinking that Curtin didn't deserve the sacking, I'm worried about his replacement.  What manager of any quality is going to want to come into this situation with a squad that needs to be overhauled but an ownership that doesn't want to spend money?  We may be in for some rough sailing.

Last Weekend Before the Next International Break

No 7:30 match so we're happy about that.  There are four matches at 10 and based on Opta projections, you probably could go with any one of them. TV chose Crystal Palace - Fulham derby and that could indeed be a decent match.  We'll probably go with Wolves - Southampton as that has 19 and 20 facing off.  These sides at the bottom have limited chances to grab points so a match against a relegation rival in November could easily be more important than matches during the run-in.  Brentford-Bournemouth could also be good as we look to have a thriving and deep midtable this year.  And West Ham - Everton could be tight too.

The feature NBC match doesn't look so hot unless Man City is really in a rut; they should be able to dispatch Brighton with little difficulty.  There's a special 3 pm match this week (we know it's special because it's only on Peacock) between Liverpool and Aston Villa.  We are hoping the Villans sort a few things out for that one or it could be a long day.

A crowded 9 am time slot on Sunday with three matches.  TV sends us to Spurs-Ipswich, which has the smell of a blow-out.  We'll go with Nottingham Forest - Newcastle.  Opta has this one really tight (35/37/28) with the slight edge to the Magpies.  Third choice is Man United hosting Leicester so that does really sound like your third choice.  

Those matches are just the warm-up for the marquee match of the weekend - Chelsea vs Arsenal.  Opta has the Blues as a slight underdog, even at home but it's tight (34/39/27); let's hope for an early goal to loosen things up.

MLS first round playoffs continue.  Some high seeds are already gone (Columbus, Real Salt Lake) and a few others have to win the third match in the series to advance, including both the number one seeds (Miami and LAFC).  Those deciding third games take place Friday and Saturday but all are on MLS Season Pass so good luck.  I am slightly ashamed to admit this but MLS has become like MLB to me - if the Philadelphia team is not in it, hard to get too excited about it.

The USMNT has something slightly competitive - the Nations League quarter-final match up with Jamaica.  Not much except pride on the line here but it might still be a little more lively than the usual friendlies.  First leg is Thursday at 8 pm, second leg is on Monday 11/18 also at 8 pm.  

There's also two match days of European Nations League between Thursday and Tuesday.  Time allowing, I could see looking in on some those, like Scotland - Croatia (Friday), England - Ireland (Sunday) or Poland - Scotland (Monday).

Yeah, not quite the same as the league play but it's all we get for the next two weeks.