More Interesting Results

Another batch of interesting results.  Interesting could be good or bad depending on your team.

Newcastle Beat the Forest for the Three

Though not at pretty as Joelinton's, Isak's goal got
Newcastle moving in the right direction (Nick Potts)

See what I did there?   Heading to an in-form Nottingham Forest, Newcastle were expecting a tough contest.  At the outset Forest were the better side and deserved their opening goal at 22 minutes by Murillo.  That did serve as a wake-up call and the Magpies started to take over from there.  That pressure wouldn't pay off until 54 minutes, when Isak got the equalizer.  They fairly well dominated the rest of the way and Joelinton got one at 72 minutes and Barnes added another at 83.  After being guilty of poor marking on the Forest goal, Joelinton was a force on both sides of the ball from there on in; earning a few 10's at some of the player rating sites.  His curling shot from just inside the box is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The win moves them to 8th in the table, shockingly just one point out of third. We note that Newcastle have given up just 10 goals this season, behind only Liverpool (6!) and Forest (10).

Dropped Points Everywhere 

Well almost everywhere.  Seven of the top 10 sides going into the weekend failed to win, with only Liverpool, Brighton and Fulham coming away with all three points. Liverpool didn't play all that well but were better than tepid Aston Villa and deserved their 2-0 win.  Brighton got one of the big upsets, getting two late goals to send Man City to their fourth straight defeat across all competitions.  Chelsea and Arsenal came into the weekend level on 18 points and exited level on 19 points after a 1-1 draw; from what I remember the first half wasn't too good but the second half was a little more interesting.  Spurs inexplicably lost to Ipswich while Bournemouth fell 2-3 to Brentford in what looks like a lively mid-table affair.

Ipswich Get First Premier League Win Since 2002

The Tractor Boys last won a top flight match in April of 2002 so their 2-1 win over Spurs was a big deal.  It also moved them out of the bottom three.  We should note that they were out of the Premier League from August 2002 until this past summer so they can be excused for not getting any wins.  Check out this bicycle kick goal from Sammie Szmodics that gave Ipswich the lead.

In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows English football.

Gappage But Also A Robust Mid-table

The largest spread in the table right now is the five points between first place Liverpool and second place Man City.  The next biggest gap is City's four point lead over third place Chelsea. Then, there are 11 teams separated by just four points, running from Chelsea to 13th place Man United. 

This Week In Refereeing  

Mostly a quiet week as we wrapped up intramural play.  We had one player who refused to take off a bandana that he was wearing as a neckerchief.  Law 4 says "a player must not use any equipment or wear anything that is dangerous"but it doesn't specifically references neckerchiefs.   Sigh, I guess we will have to send a memo out at the beginning of next season making it clear that neckerchiefs are considered unsafe and must be removed.  

The biggest news was clearly the release of videos of David Coote making disparaging remarks about Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp.  The story is here.  This reminds me of Too Long in the Wasteland by James McMurtry:

but whiskey don't make liars

it just makes fools

so I didn't mean to say it

but I meant what I said

Coote was suspended and the betting line is that he won't referee in the EPL again.  Dennis points out that many referees probably feel this way about Klopp or maybe some other coach they've been reamed by but the real question is did it affect their refereeing?  Most likely not.  Coote's indiscretion was saying it out loud.  His biggest problem may not be referring to Klopp as the "c" word but rathering including "German" in the list as well.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Brenna: MLS playoffs are a best of three?

Dennis: Only for the first round.

Brenna: That's so dumb.

MLS Cupertino Overlords Are Crying in Their Chardonnay

Speaking of "so dumb," how did those first round playoffs work out?  Well, surely Apple had been counting on Lionel Messi's Miami team featuring regularly on their telecasts through November but that won't happen now as they were busted by Atlanta in the third match of that series.  I love this quote from The Inquirer's Jonathan Tannenwald:

The soccer world hasn’t stopped moving just because the Union’s season is over. Or even after Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami was dramatically booted from the MLS playoffs in the first round on Saturday night, which left a box of eggs on the league and Apple’s faces.

Columbus and Cincinnati also lost their Game 3's as well, which means the Eastern Conference semi finals feature the 4, 6, 7 and 9 seeds.  Had they gone with one game playoffs, it would have been 1,3,4 and 7.  The West fared somewhat better and will see 1,2,4 and 6 play in the conference semis; it would have been the same outcome for a one game playoff as well.

To be clear, we're not necessarily advocating for one game playoffs.  Our preference would be fewer teams (four from each conference?) using the home-and-home aggregate score approach.  But that wouldn't produce enough product to fill their programming needs.  

Of course, you can accuse Champions League of doing the same thing with their expanded eight-game group stage.  No doubt, it was about more money from more matches.  However, I'd argue that far from mangling the competition, the new format has made it more interesting.  The old four team groups limited the match ups and meant that one bad result could keep a good side from advancing.  The eight-game format will do a better job of sorting out the quality teams.  

And while we're trashing MLS playoffs, how about the fact that after finishing the first round, they dont' play again until the weekend of 11/23 because of the international break.  For LA and Minnesota, who needed only two matches to clinch their series, this means they will go three weeks without a match.  Way to build the drama.  I know MLS doesn't have control over when the international breaks are scheduled but they could have tailored their playoff format and schedule to deal with it.

USMNT were up 1-0 on Jamaica when I posted this.  They play the second leg Monday night.

Between working on my dad's eulogy and two beers, this is all I got tonight.

A Box of Chocolates

Got to see a little more than I expected.  Some interesting results.

Gordon's cross was superb but so was his defense

Top of that list was Newcastle's 1-0 triumph over Arsenal.  They did an excellent job frustrating Arsenal and converted their best chance of the day, a great cross by Gordon to Isak, who did not miss this time. An easy pick for this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  This was the best we've seen from Gordon in a few matches but others stepped up too.  Though xG says a draw would have been a fair result, I thought the Magpies earned the W.  The annoying part is that even with many others around us in the table dropping points, somehow we still sit 11h in the table.  

Liverpool took their time but eventually won out over Brighton 2-1.  Others weren't so lucky.  We already noted Arsenal's defeat.  Man City were tripped up 2-1 by Bournemouth; those of us who have dropped points to the Cherries feel a little better now.  Villa fell hard (1-4) to Tottenham. That the Spurs took all three at home isn't a huge surprise but the manner in which they did it was; trailing 0-1 at half, Tottenham put up four unanswered goals with Villa looking totally at sea.  Chelsea ended up dropping points as well, drawing 1-1 with Man United.   

Not a surprise result, but Nottingham Forest's 3-0 over West Ham combined with some scores elsewhere has them third place in the table.  No one has fewer losses (one) and they have conceded fewer goals (seven) than anybody else except Liverpool (six).  Ten games in for sure but still a great start for them.

What was I supposed to do?  Leicester's Kalvin
Phillips is about to get his second yellow (Getty Images)

Some fun stuff at the bottom of the table.  Southampton got their first win, a 1-0 squeaker over Everton that survived a late goal from the Toffees that was ruled out for offside.  The result moved the Saints all the way from 20th to 19th.  Ipswich were on the verge of getting their first win when they surrendered a goal in stoppage time, leaving them to settle with their fifth draw of the season.  They were clearly not helped by Kalvin Phillips' second yellow, which meant they played the last 15+ minutes down a man.  Didn't get to see it but the second half of Wolves - Crystal Palace looks wild with four goals between 60-77 minutes; the 2-2 draw doesn't really help either side.

The Monday mid-table contest between Fulham and Brentford wasn't all the exciting, except for stoppage time.  Harry Wilson came on at 82 minutes with the Cottagers trailing 0-1.  He then proceeded to net two in stoppage time to give Fulham an improbable 2-1 win.   You can see the second one here, complete with the home announcers' call.  In truth, Fulham really were pushing Brentford all over the place in the second half and the xG says this was a fair result.

Losing For the Cycle

Man City and Aston Villa both completed an odd triple over the last week, losing in three different competitions.  A week ago Wednesday, City lost to Spurs in the Carabao Cup. On Saturday, they fell in their EPL contest to Bournemouth.  Completing the fun week, they were pummeled by Sporting in their Champions League fixture on Tuesday.   Villa dropped the Carabao Cup tie to Crystal Palace, were pretty well-beaten by Tottenham, then lost 1-0 to Club Brugge on the strangest PK call you'll ever see. Martinez set the ball down inside the six for a goal kick and passed it to Mings, who inexplicably picked it.  You can see the play here; he must have felt Martinez was giving it to him to take the goal kick.  Yes, that was the only goal of the match but Villa played poorly anyway and probably deserved the loss.

Rude Awakening for the EPL

When we last checked, the four Premier League entrants in the Champions League were doing very well, thank you.  Oops, three of them hit speed bumps this week.  Liverpool were fine, coasting to a 4-0 win over Leverkusen; they stay top of table with a perfect record halfway through the group stage.  As we noted above, Man City and Aston Villa dropped their matches; Villa stay in the top eight but City are now 10th, outside the automatic advancement to the knockout rounds.  Arsenal also fell, 1-0 to Inter on a very cheap (we thought incorrect) handball call; they are in 12th.

In the Europa League, Tottenham also saw their perfect record go by the boards, losing 3-2 to Galatasary; they fall to 7th in the standings.  Man United did get a win over PAOK, their first in the competition and they are now in 15th.  Over in the Europa Conference League, Chelsea were unaffected by the EPL bug and beat Noah 8-0 to remain perfect in that competition.  Looking at that scoresheet, Chelsea appear to have gotten two of every kind of goal.

What Do West Virginia and Old Trafford Have In Common?

Really nothing as far as I can tell but they play John Denver's "Take Me Home, Country Roads" before the start of each half at Man United home games.  Red Devils fan Jeff H sends along this video explaining the connnection.  Still seems like a stretch to me.

Yellow Balls Are Back

A pictoral history of yellow balls 

We are remiss in not pointing out that the EPL switched to the winter yellow ball a few weeks ago.  This article goes over the history and rationale for this hallowed EPL tradition.  They say it's to improve visibility but it feels like merchandising to me.

Curtains for Jim

Dennis said even if it is a lay-up, I could use that header for the section discussing the sacking of Jim Curtin.  After a season like that, you know the manager's role in the debacle will be scrutinized.  However, I thought Curtin would survive that scrutiny.  This team's fate was sealed back in the winter when they decided to roll the dice with basically the same crew for one more year.  It's true there have been times during Curtin's tenure that I felt he was too deferential to the experienced players and sometimes didn't make subsitutions as early and often as he needed to.  That wasn't the case this year and in some other years too - you'd look at the bench and ask who exactly would you bring in to make things better?

Aside from thinking that Curtin didn't deserve the sacking, I'm worried about his replacement.  What manager of any quality is going to want to come into this situation with a squad that needs to be overhauled but an ownership that doesn't want to spend money?  We may be in for some rough sailing.

Last Weekend Before the Next International Break

No 7:30 match so we're happy about that.  There are four matches at 10 and based on Opta projections, you probably could go with any one of them. TV chose Crystal Palace - Fulham derby and that could indeed be a decent match.  We'll probably go with Wolves - Southampton as that has 19 and 20 facing off.  These sides at the bottom have limited chances to grab points so a match against a relegation rival in November could easily be more important than matches during the run-in.  Brentford-Bournemouth could also be good as we look to have a thriving and deep midtable this year.  And West Ham - Everton could be tight too.

The feature NBC match doesn't look so hot unless Man City is really in a rut; they should be able to dispatch Brighton with little difficulty.  There's a special 3 pm match this week (we know it's special because it's only on Peacock) between Liverpool and Aston Villa.  We are hoping the Villans sort a few things out for that one or it could be a long day.

A crowded 9 am time slot on Sunday with three matches.  TV sends us to Spurs-Ipswich, which has the smell of a blow-out.  We'll go with Nottingham Forest - Newcastle.  Opta has this one really tight (35/37/28) with the slight edge to the Magpies.  Third choice is Man United hosting Leicester so that does really sound like your third choice.  

Those matches are just the warm-up for the marquee match of the weekend - Chelsea vs Arsenal.  Opta has the Blues as a slight underdog, even at home but it's tight (34/39/27); let's hope for an early goal to loosen things up.

MLS first round playoffs continue.  Some high seeds are already gone (Columbus, Real Salt Lake) and a few others have to win the third match in the series to advance, including both the number one seeds (Miami and LAFC).  Those deciding third games take place Friday and Saturday but all are on MLS Season Pass so good luck.  I am slightly ashamed to admit this but MLS has become like MLB to me - if the Philadelphia team is not in it, hard to get too excited about it.

The USMNT has something slightly competitive - the Nations League quarter-final match up with Jamaica.  Not much except pride on the line here but it might still be a little more lively than the usual friendlies.  First leg is Thursday at 8 pm, second leg is on Monday 11/18 also at 8 pm.  

There's also two match days of European Nations League between Thursday and Tuesday.  Time allowing, I could see looking in on some those, like Scotland - Croatia (Friday), England - Ireland (Sunday) or Poland - Scotland (Monday).

Yeah, not quite the same as the league play but it's all we get for the next two weeks.

 Family matters have left me short on time, viewing and mental energy.

In short, there were games last weekend, there will be games this weekend and there will be games during the week.

We won't rule out the possibility that another Newcastle loss (2-1 to Chelsea) has dampened my enthusiasm for writing as well.  Frustrating that the Magpies beat Chelsea a mere three days later in a Carabao Cup Round of 16 match.  They needed the points in the EPL much more than a trip to the quarter finals.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve:  Great, Newcastle lose to Chelsea in EPL but of course they beat them in the Carabao Cup. What a waste.

Dennis: It's not like you have other European midweek games to be concerned about though.

Yeah, that left a mark.

Wasting the New Manager Bounce

So, after a 2-1 loss to West Ham, Man United finally sacked Erik ten Hag.  With the Red Devils sitting in 14th with just 11 points, this can't have been a surprise even after the "vote of confidence" he got before the season started.  Of course, in their first match after the sacking, United properly pasted Leicester 5-2 in their Carabao Cup fixture.  That seems like a waste of a perfectly good new manager bounce.  

Limited Viewing

Probably won't see any of Saturday's games.  With Newcastle hosting Arsenal, this may not be a bad thing.  Sunday has Spurs-Aston Villa and Man United - Chelsea.  That latter might be good if United didn't use up all their new manager bounce.   Full complement of Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League mid-week.  First round of MLS playoff continue.

Hopefully more viewing and more time next week.

No Points For Moral Victories

A lot of teams played well but got nothing for their efforts.

So much to get to and so little time.  You know what that means - mostly random observations of the week's action. Coverage a mile wide and an inch deep.

Ninth Place Says It All

Welbeck slips the ball past Pope for the game winner

The Magpies scoring drought from the run of play continued in their 0-1 loss to Brighton.  For those keeping track at home, that makes six hours and 44 minutes since the last non-PK goal.  Brighton are a decent side so a tough match was expected.  And Newcastle actually played pretty well in all aspects except for scoring.  But, to paraphase Jerry Seinfeld, that's really the most important part, the scoring. Isak was clearly rusty in his return after injury, though others were culpable as well.  Brighton, on the other hand, took advantage of their one big chance.  So, at the end of matchweek eight, they sit deservedly in ninth place.

Text Messages to Dennis That Could Have Happened and Did

Steve at 10:23 am: I expect to report in 10 minutes that Brighton have scored against the run of play.

Steve at 10:35 am: I was wrong.  It was 12 minutes.

 

I Made That Happen 

Here comes the Son; Hueng-min was part of the 
Spurs scoring outburst

Spurs were pushing West Ham all over the place but early in the second half they were still stuck at 1-1.  When Bissouma put them up in the 52nd minute, I texted Michael "blow out from here."  Sure enough, within eight minutes, the score was 4-1 and Spurs were fine from there.  Michael texted back "keep up the good work."

Relegation Six Pointers

Teams at the bottom of table have limited chances to pick up points so when they face one of their relegation rivals, it's a critical match regardless of whether it's August, October, May or whatever.  You simply don't have many matches to work with.  

Everton's 2-0 win over Ipswich gave the Toffees a five point cushion from the bottom three. Even bigger was Leicester's comeback against Southampton. Come May, we may look back on Southampton's collapse here as a key factor in their relegation.  Watching the highlights, this was probably the match of the week.  Never underestimate how compelling those relegation six pointers can be.  The Saints carried a 2-0 lead well into the second half but saw the deficit cut in half at 64 minutes.  The match then really turned at 73 minutes when Ryan Fraser was sent off for DOGSO (no sympathy from us as you could clearly see the shirt pull) and Vardy converted the PK.  The collapse was completed in the 98th minute when Jordan Ayew put in the corner from Harry Winks.  You can see the play here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Southampton stay winless, with one point, level with Wolves at the bottom of the table.  Yeah, that'll leave a mark.

No Points For Moral Victories

Speaking of Wolves, they were resolute at Molineux and looked to be ready to nick a point from Manchester City.  John Stones killed that notion with a last second header goal to seal a 2-1 win for City. Wolves argued that Silva was interfering from on offside position but that argument did not pass muster (correctly we think) with the VAR.  Yep, you played well against one of the league's best but it still counts for zero in the standings.

Interesting Result and Compelling Watch Are Not the Same Thing

I know there were several matches that we pooh-poohed as likely blowouts.  Wolves - Man City and Bournemouth - Arsenal come to mind.  I did see the former, which turned out to be a surprisingly close match as noted above.  Though the result hung in the balance, I can't say I was glued to the TV.  I didn't get to see the Bournemouth - Arsenal match in which the Gunners got their first defeat of the season.  Dennis told me not to be fooled by the 2-0 final in favor of the Cherries; yes, it was a surprise result but the game "was kinda boring."

This Week in Refereeing

The big call of the week was the DOGSO against Arsenal's William Saliba for fouling Bournemouth's Evanilson.  You can see the play here.  The call on the field by Rob Jones was just a yellow card for Saliba.  VAR Jarred Gillett sent him to the monitor and Jones changed his call.

We are less than convinced this was the right result, as it hinged on judgments (two separate ones actually) as to what constitutes "obvious."  The first O part of DOGSO - Obvious - looks at four factors:

• - distance between the offence and the goal

• - general direction of the play

• - likelihood of keeping or gaining control of the ball

• - location and number of defenders

Two and three look pretty good but does the distance between when Evanilson will likely gain control of the ball give Saliba (assuming he doesn't foul) or Ben White (the other defender in the picture time to intervene?  That is, are one and four obvious?  The second use of obvious comes in the overturning of the call.  It is supposed to be a clear and obvious error for the call on the field to be reversed.  Was that an obvious mistake?  Our conclusion is that we would have been fine with whatever the referee called on the field but not completely cool seeing Jones' initial call overturned. 

Draught excluders; even the kids are doing it now

On a personal note, while doing a U12 match, I saw one of the teams employ a draught excluder for a free kick about 25 yards from goal.  That was a first for me.  

The Ownest of Own Goals

The Union got some help from Charlotte, who beat DC United, but failed to do their part, falling to Cincinnati 2-1.  The winning goal came on an own goal off the foot of Jakob Glesnes. Seen here, this captures the season in a single moment.  I only saw the low lights but it was reliably reported to me that they really did not look like a side intent on making the playoffs.  They finish 12th out of 15th in the East.

In one sense, this team's fate was sealed when management decided to roll the dice one more time with basically the same side as the last few years.  That gamble was not helped by the mid-season departures of key components of the team like Carranza, Martinez and Lowe.  The Inquirer's Jonathan Tannenwald wrote a comprehensive obituary on the season, which you can read here (hopefully the Inquirer part isn't behind a paywall.)  We think he does a good job of laying out the key factors.  

On Top of the World (or at least the Champions League)

No baloney; Duran scores in Champions League too

After a convincing 2-0 win over Bologna, Aston Villa find themselves at the top of the Champions League table through three matchweeks.  Second place is Liverpool, who along with the Villans, are the only two undefeated and untied sides at this point.  Man City are third and Arsenal, hampered by a weak goal differential, are 9th despite two wins and a draw.  Five more match weeks to go but a good start for the EPL sides.

In Europa Cup, Tottenham remained perfect with a 1-0 win over AZ Alkmaar and sit second in the standings based on goal differential.  Man United could only manage a 1-1 draw with Fenerbache, their third straight in this competion and they languish in 21st right now.

And the EPL's seventh side in European competitions - Chelsea - dispatched Panathinaikos 4-1 to stay top of the European Conference League.

Turning the Clocks Back

If you're in England that is. 

Know how to tell a fixture is really important?  It's only on Peacock.  That is the case for Sunday's 12:30 contest between third place Arsenal and and league leader Liverpool.  Opta has this as a close one, with the Gunners slightly favored.  

There is a Friday afternoon fixture between Leicester and Nottingham Forest.  Eighth place Forest have just one loss against three wins and four (!) draws while Leicester have won their last two; sounds like a good enough reason to blow off work early and turn on USA at 3 pm.

No Saturday 7:30 match; that's a damn shame.  Four matches at 10 am.  The TV contest (USA) is Aston Villa - Bournemouth, which shouldn't be too difficult for the Villans unless they've been reading their press clippings and lose their focus.  Still, it may be the best of the lot.  Man City hosting Southampton, Wolves at Brighton and Brentford - Ipswich don't sound all that appealing.  The feature 12:30 on NBC however should be good with Everton hosting Fulham.  The Toffees have rebounded from a horrible start with two wins and two draws in their last four while Fulham have not been an easy opponent.

Three matches on Sunday at 10 to warm us up for the big one, except they all reek of mismatches.  USA gives us Chelsea - Newcastle; eesh, off of recent form this feels like a blowout for Chelsea, especially at Stamford Bridge.  Crystal Palace hosting Spurs isn't any better.  The neutrals may do best to go with West Ham - Man United; the Hammers are slight underdogs which sounds about right since the match is in London and Man United haven't really been overwhelming anybody this year.

No European action mid-week.

I was going to ignore the MLS playoffs assuming that everything was going to be double paywalled but maybe they are getting smarter.  Every playoff match is either FS1 and/or "free" Apple. The full bracket can be found here.  Oh wait, they still have the dumbass best of three format in the first round.  Recall that this format requires a penalty shootout for any first round match that ends is a draw.  Lots of product for the Apple Overlords.  Why yes, I am cynical about a soccer playoff system that puts 18 of 30 teams into the playoffs, then does a best of three in the first round.  Might be the only action mid-week so there's a chance I'll watch anyway

And, We're Back

Took in a few friendlies and some Nations League action but otherwise a quiet week.  We didn't have any club games either.  Footballless Saturdays are not a pretty sight.

We have regularly mocked the Nations League concept as a vehicle to glorify what are still basically friendlies.  Having watched a few more, I will say that the lineups and the effort seems more "honest" than the old friendlies so maybe it's not a terrible idea.

Guadalajara Won't Do (apologies to Steely Dan)

Pochettino: Remind me why I took this job?
Photo:Eduardo Verdugo/AP

So what did we learn from the two USMNT friendlies vs Panama (2-0) and Mexico (0-2)?  Mostly that Pochettino has his work cut out for him.  Against Panama they were inconsistent but did have a couple of moments of clinical finishing, like this YouTubeableMoment from Yunus Musah.  Great work from Robinson to get the ball off the touch line to Pulisic, who then executed a textbook give-and-go with Aaronson before Pulisic put the cross right on Musah's foot.  But overall, not that great a performance against the 37th ranked side.

The picture from Guadalajara was worse, where the Yanks were fairly well dominated by the home side.  Maybe they missed Pulisic, who was rested for load management, but not sure how much he could have helped in this situation.

Certainly after just two matches, it's way too early to make any judgments about the long-term future here.  Pochettino is a smart guy.  What worries me though is that there are no transfer windows in international football.  He will have to work with the talent the country has produced.

Last Chance

As we noted last week, the Union's playoff bid  requires that they beat Cincinnati at home while one of DC United (vs Charlotte at home) or Montreal (vs NYCFC at home) lose.  Well, technically, if Atlanta win, they can't win by more than 13 goals more than the Union win.   For simplicity of the following exercise, I'm going to assume that this won't happen.  If it does, you can blame me.

I had suggested that the chances of making the playoffs were probably less than 20 percent.  What I did not expect was that Opta would have the Union with a 46.8% chance of winning against Cincy.  That seems incredibly optimistic to me.  However, it does line up well with the betting lines, most of which have the U odds of winning at over 50%.  I can't identify what's driving those numbers.  Thinking Cincy won't care because they finish third regardless of the result?  Their recent poor run of form (lost three straight, no wins in last four)?  Injuries?   

Anyway, when I take the Opta odds for the three matches (DC at 37.1% to lose and Montreal at 39.8% to lose), I get the Union with a 28.94% chance of making the playoffs. Like I said, that is way better than I was expecting.  Dennis F did review the spreadsheet.  Though not a CPA he did hedge just like a real one, noting that assuming I correctly identified the scenarios in which the Union advance and that I correctly transcribed the numbers from Opta, my spreadsheet was correct.  So it was really a compilation opinion rather than an audit.

Atlanta, with whom we are currently tied, has almost the same scenario except with the added requirement that the Union not win against Cincinnati OR both Montreal and DC have to lose.  That last scenario would have four teams finishing 10-14-10 for 40 points but the Union and Atlanta would qualify based on goal differential.  I ain't doin' that spreadsheet.

London Calling (apologies to The Clash)

Michael, Don, Steve, Graham, and Charlie - aka the
"Five Men from USA" - are heading back to England for more football

It's official.  After eight long years, the "Five Men From the USA" are returning to England. This will be an abbreviated trip of less than a week and we probably won't get out of London.  Saturday morning looks like Spurs - Newcastle, Sunday will be Fulham vs Ipswich at Craven Cottage and Monday we'll see Queen's Park Rangers take on Luton Town at Loftus Road.  That latter fixture is in the Championship division; we decided against a two-hour train ride to Wolverhampton to see Wolves - Nottingham Forest.  Besides, QPR and Loftus Road have a rich history.  The personnel (see picture) are the same and we're hoping we get the same welcoming reception we got in 2016.  And, since we won't need a rental car, no one will have to drive on the wrong side of the road - or incur a "congestion charge" for driving in the wrong place at the wrong time.

When Kevin Hart Was David Beckham

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this clip of Kevin Hart getting into character by shadowing David Beckham.  Don't tell anyone but it's an ad for H&M clothing.

The Week

A weekend with mismatches but also some intriguing stuff.  In theory the marquee match of the week should be Liverpool - Chelsea (Sunday 11:30 on USA). Except, off of recent form, maybe not.  Indeed, Opta has Liverpool at 59% and Chelsea at just 19%.  That doesn't sound all that exciting.

Things kick off at 7:30 Saturday with a London derby between Tottenham and West Ham.  Neither side have been living up to expectations but figure Spurs at home should be up to the task here.  The 10 am matches present some great choices.  We will of course take in Newcastle vs Brighton at St. James' Park; those two sides are level on points but maybe the home field advantage will be enough for the Magpies to get a point or three.  USA thinks that's the best choice as well.  But, Fulham hosting Aston Villa could be a good watch too. Opta actually has the Cottagers favored but I think that's just the home field advantage; after the sloppy/sleepy 0-0 draw with Man United, I'm looking for Villa to be tough here. Southampton - Leicester and Ipswich - Everton are important clashes for those relegation don't wannabes.  The only 10 am match maybe to skip is Man United - Brentford, although recent form there hints at something closer than you'd expect.

The "feature" NBC match is Arsenal at Bournemouth, which doesn't sound all that great.  Sunday morning, before the Liverpool - Chelsea contest, you can watch Wolves - Man City (9 am USA) , which also doesn't sound that great.  The match week concludes with Nottingham Forest - Crystal Palace on Monday at 3 pm (USA); Forest have lost just once so far while Palace are still winless.

But wait, there's more.  Champions League has Matchday 3 of 8 running on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tuesday we will definitely be watching Aston Villa - Bologna, though we note that Arsenal will face Shakhtar Donetsk at the same time.  On Wednesday our choice is likely RB Leipzig - Liverpool over Man City - Sparta Praha.

Still not done.  Europa Cup action has Man United at Fenerbahce and Tottenham hosting AZ Alkmaar, both at 3 pm on Thursday.  

Are we there yet?  No.  There's also Europa Conference League action with Chelsea at Spanakopita   Panathinaikos, Thursday at 12:45.  Wait, that means we can watch Chelsea, then Spurs?

Taking a sneak peek ahead, Leicester play Nottingham Forest next Friday so we have football every day this week.  

As for MLS, all the Eastern Conference matches start at 6 pm on Saturday, with the Western Conference games kicking off at 9 pm.  They call it Decision Day.  Looks like every match is double paywalled behind an Apple subscription and a Season Pass.  But, but, you can see any match you want.  It's so much better.  In any case, I'm not going to be the guy streaming Union soccer at my 50th high school reunion so I won't see it anyway.  

About the only thing I won't see if the week goes well.

Spoiler Alert - Everybody Ties

Well, not everybody but there were draws in several of the key matches.  Hopefully you didn't follow last week's viewing advice too closely as many of the matches did not pan out as we had hoped.  There was good viewing to be had, just not where we expected.

One Dimensional Offense

Gordon Not - Pickford denies the PK

Some kind of power glitch caused our DVD to malfunction so I only saw the last 20 minutes of Newcastle's 0-0 draw with Everton.  This turned out to be a good thing.  For the third straight match, the Magpies failed to score from open play.  Also for the third straight time, a penalty offered them the chance for a result.  Except this time Anthony Gordon's weak attempt was easily saved by Jordan Pickford.   The Goodison Park faithful were eminently pleased to see the ex-Toffee mess up.  He also missed a pretty good opportunity late to steal the match as well.  Guess it's true you can't go home.

It's hard to win with an offense that relies on PKs, especially when you miss them.  Clearly the side is missing Isak, who may or may not be back for next Saturday's match versus Brighton.  That they are seventh in the table maybe speaks more to mediocrity of everyone below Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal; the Magpies still look no better than upper mid-table.

Incomplete for the Course

Our high hopes for the Aston Villa - Man United match were not realized and we were treated to a 0-0 draw and not the good kind of 0-0 draw.  We saw this as an important test for both sides and regrettably we must give them both incompletes.  Though Man United may be the slightly happier of the two, the draw leaves them in 14th place with just eight points, their worst start to a season in 35 years.  For Villa this was a chance to put down a marker as a nouveau top four that went begging.

So Where Was the Better Viewing?  

Almost anywhere.  Crystal Palace - Liverpool was a tight 0-1 win for the Reds.  Fulham did not exactly go quietly into the night, making Man City work for a 3-2 win.  Brentford - Wolves had five goals between them by 28 minutes; that one ended 5-3 favor the Bees.  We didn't get to see the Chelsea - Nottingham Forest 1-1 draw but that looked pretty tense, especially with Forest down a man after 78 minutes.  

"Best" match of the weekend was probably Brighton - Tottenham.  Spurs went up, fairly easily, with goals by Johnson and Maddison; leading 2-0 at half they seemingly had everything in hand.  Shockingly, Tottenham proceeded to allow three unanswered goals and by 66 minutes, they were down 3-2.  We make Welbeck's game winner this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Other than possession, the stats suggest this was result was about right.  The win moved Brighton past Newcastle and into sixth place.  Arsenal's 3-1 win over Southampton keeps them level on points with Man City; the Gunners and City remain the only two unbeaten teams.

In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL.

The Window Is Closing

The Union got off to a terrible start in Columbus, falling behind on a Hernandez goal in the 4th minute.  Nathan Harriel got one back at 25 minutes but the U couldn't keep it level until half time as Farsi got one in the 41st minute.  A second goal by Hernandez looked to have put the matter to rest but McGlynn responded quickly so there was still hope they could scratch out a point.  Alas, it was not to be and the 3-2 final leaves the Union's playoff hopes dangling by a thread.  I won't be able to calculate the exact numbers until Opta puts up its predictions next week but the scenario can be described in one sentence:

Union beat Cincinnati AND either DC United lose to Charlotte OR Montreal lose to NYCFC

Playing around with some win percentages, it turns out the probability isn't as low as I would have guessed.  It's probably going to be something in the 14-18% range.  That's better than Lloyd Christmas territory, though still very much a long shot.  

 

International Break

We've been clear that international friendlies are not our cup of tea.  We will be making an exception this week when Mauricio Pochettino makes his debut as the USMNT manager.  They have a match with Panama Saturday night (9 pm on TNT) and another against Mexico on Tuesday (10:30 pm also on TNT).   Not sure exactly what I'm hoping to learn about the team except maybe to see if there is any chance to their system of play.

Normally, we'd be getting ready for the World Cup qualifying process but for 2026, as one of the host nations, the US get an automatic berth.  I wonder if this is a good or bad thing.  Pochettino will be taking a team to the World Cup that will have very limited (no?) competitive opportunities before the tournament.  

Short post I know but not as much action as usual, I missed a lot due to refereeing, and my dog ate my homework.  Also, the sun was in my eyes.

The Sun Never Stays Out For Very Long

This was Jon Champion's characterization of the weather in England but it could easily apply to the fortunes of any football fan.  Fortunately, it can work the other way too. If you're patient, the sun will eventually return.  Usually.

Draws of varying degrees of satisfaction for Newcastle, Aston Villa and the Union.  Noted football pundit Rosie Perez explains it all here:

 

A Good Draw

Joelinton was the unsung hero against City (Getty Images)

Nice to see the team show up at kickoff for the match with Man City.  Even though they fell behind 0-1, there was reason to believe the Magpies would get something out of the game.  That confidence was confirmed when Gordon was fouled in the box and he converted the PK at 58 minutes.  That would be the end of the scoring and the 1-1 final looked like a fair result.  City had the better of possession (63/37), shots (16/11) and shots on target (6/4) but Newcastle had the better xG (1.48-1.13).

I'll give "most improved" to Joelinton, who had been largely been disappointing in recent outings.  On Saturday he was both a "destroyer" interrupting City's offense and a playmaker composing the best attacking plays, including the pass that sprung Gordon loose for the penalty.  Newcastle no doubt benefitted from the absences of DeBruyne and Rodri but that takes nothing away from the intensity that we saw from the Magpies.

A Bad Draw

The opposite of Newcastle's "good draw" was Aston Villa's 2-2 tie with Ipswich.  Yes it was on the road but this was Ipswich, a side looking for its first win.  Aston Villa fell behind early but they do not panic in that situation.  Indeed, Rodgers and Watkins had them up 2-1 by the 32nd minute.  The problem was that the Villans seem to want to coast from there.  They paid for it when Delap got his second at 72 minutes.  The most disturbing stat from the match was that Villa had just seven shots and only three on target.  Not good enough for a team looking to repeat in the top four again.

The Worst Draw

If the Aston Villa draw was disappointing, the Union's 1-1 result at home against Atlanta was border line soul crushing.  They looked decent enough in the first half but couldn't convert any of the decent scoring chances.  Harriel got them the lead at 61 minutes but as is their tendency, the Union conceded a goal on sloppy defending in the 72nd minute.  That would be Atlanta's only shot on target, though curiously Atlanta had the better xG 1.8-1.0.

Though the point lifted the Union into 9th place, they really needed all three based on the schedules.

Playoffs? Playoffs? (apologies to Jim Mora)

But as bad as the Atlanta draw was, the 2-1 loss in Orlando was even worse.  Again, they looked decent enough but eventually found themselves down 2-0 by 64 minutes.  Sullivan came on as a sub and cut the deficit in half.  Harriel had a couple of golden chances to level the match which probably explains why xG was close at 2.6-2.3. Not to be though and the loss combined with results elsewhere dropped the Union to 10th.  The silver lining is that they are level on points with 9th place Toronto with a game in hand.  Balance that against the fact that DC United are also tied on points but have New England and Charlotte as their final two fixtures.

Results Elsewhere

The approaching deadline means I can only offer limited observations on the other EPL action.

- Cole Palmer had a hat trick by the 31st minute, then added a 4th by the 40th minute in Chelsea's 4-2 win over Brighton (their first loss of the season by the way)

- Arsenal looked headed for a draw with Leicester but got two stoppage time goals (one an OG) for a 4-2 win 

- Spurs handed Man United another loss (3-0) but the talking point from that match - the red card to Fernandes - is addressed below

We Sort of Carabao It

Well, we chose Newcastle's Carabao Cup match with  AFC Wimbledon over some Champions League matches like Arsenal - PSG or Slovan Bratislava - Man City.  In the end, none look like a very good choice.  The Magpies did pretty well dominated their League Two opponent but the 1-0 win (on a PK at that) doesn't look all that impressive.  Their reward is a Round of 16 home match against Chelsea, which actually could be an interesting fixture.

A Famous Win

Multiple EPL teams were in action Tuesday-Thursday but the big news has to be Aston Villa's 1-0 win over Bayern.  This is probably the biggest victory for Aston Villa since 1982, when they beat Bayern to win the Champions League final.   The hero?  Super sub Jhon Duran of course.  Check out his goal here as this week's YouTubeableMoment; the clip includes bonus footage of several Martinez saves that kept the match 0-0.

Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool also won their Matchday 2 fixtures, all with shutouts like Aston Villa.

In Europa Cup action, Man United stumbled again with a 3-3 draw at Porto.  Pretty wild with United up 2-1, then down 2-3 before Maguire rescued a draw with a stoppage time goal.  We note that Bruno Fernandes was sent off again, this time for two yellows.  Spurs got a 2-1 win over Ferocious Fevervirus Ferencvaros. In Europa Conference League, Chelsea got a Matchday 1 win over Gent.

This Week in Refereeing

Late in the first half of the Man United - Spurs contest, Bruno Fernandes attempted a weird and ugly challenge on Maddison.  You can see the play here.  The call by Kavanaugh on the field was red and it was supported by VAR Bankes.  Though lacking excessive force, the height of the leg and the studs up lunge were enough for those two.  The league statement shortly after the match backed up that view.  But the red card was overturned on appeal and viewed as incorrect by the Key Match Incident panel.  My view was that even as he was slipping, Fernandes went for a pound of flesh with that lunge.  The law references excessive force but it also includes the phrase "endangering the safety of an opponent."  Fernandes was out of control and I don't have a problem with either Kavanaugh or Bankes actions, even if the appeal was successful.   Neither does the EPL as both have assignments this week.  As we noted last week, the consequences for serious foul play and attempted serious foul play are different even if the intent is the same.

Dennis reports that in a Champions League match, Anthony Taylor gave a player a yellow card for waving an imaginary yellow card.  Good to hear that Taylor was not cowed by the abuse he took for issuing 14 yellows in the Bournemouth - Chelsea match.

Speaking of not being cowed, check out this clip of a referee from one of the lower divisions of English Football sent along by BFS Artistic Director Laura O via BFS Historical Archivist Mackenzie W.  We think he may be ready for the big time.  

More locally, I sadly report that the Chestnut Hill Youth Sport Club had to suspend a U-10 Girls coach for running out on the field to confront a referee about a call.  FFS, this is intramural soccer where we don't keep standings or even the scores.  Maybe this explains why I'm so willing to throw the book at players and coaches who misbehave.  My question is does the behavior at the younger levels come from watching the professionals or do the professionals do it because they gotten away with it since they were at the U-10 level? Or maybe:

A Break

The international break will temporarily bring an end to the nonstop action.  All we have are full match weeks for the EPL and MLS.  And some international action.

Most interesting match of the weekend for me (and arguably for neutrals) is Aston Villa vs Man United at 9 am on Sunday (USA).  Opta has Villa as prohibitive favorites (42-33-25) and this is an important test for both sides.

The weekend opens at 7:30 Saturday morning with a possible mismatch of Crystal Palace vs Liverpool. The Eagles are all of a sudden a relegation candidate off a terrible start which finds them winless through six matches.

Five to work with at 10 am.  USA would have you watch West Ham - Ipswich but that doesn't sound all that great.  Actually none of them do.   I might go with Leicester - Bournemouth.  Certainly Arsenal - Southampton or Man City - Fulham don't look competitive.  Brentford - Wolves might be the second choice.  The 12:30 "feature match" on NBC is Everton - Newcastle, which looks closer than I would like (31-44-25).

Up against the Aston Villa contest is Chelsea - Nottingham Forest on Peacock.  Meh.  The 11:30 match looks better with Brighton hosting Tottenham; Spurs likely prevail here but need to be ready. 

The Union are in Columbus, which does not look like a promising oppotunity for points.  Toronto have Miami so that's not good for them.  Atlanta have Red Bulls at home so that could be a point.  Montreal are on the road at Charlotte which isn't an obvious result for them.  Ditto for Nashville at NYCFC.  However, DC United get 14th place New England, albeit on the road.  Worst case scenario could see the Union in 11th at the end of the weekend.

There are two USMNT friendlies that will mark the debut of Mauricio Pochettino as their coach on the horizon - vs Panama on 10/12 and Mexico 10/15.  Not a big friendly viewer but will likely look in on those two matches.

There are also two matchdays of Nations League competition if you want some European action.  Check your local listings.

Are we there yet?