That's Entertainment

 Apologies to The Jam

We have been know to belittle or at least point out the annoying quirks of the FA Cup but this weekend's third round action highlights how the tournament can be a highly watchable event.  Hope you caught some of the action.

Sometime When You Win, You Actually Lose

Ramsdale stopped 3 of 9 PK attempts
Photo:PA Wire/PA Images

Sports pundit Rosie Perez must of have been thinking of Newcastle's third round victory over Bournemouth.  The story looks like an heroic effort by the Magpies to level the match in stoppage time and to come back from a deficit in the PK shootout to best the Cherries and move on to the fourth round.  Not so fast Sparky.  There are a lot of things wrong with this picture.  Start with Livramento going down with another injury.  Then, we have another blown lead; up 1-0, Newcastle surrendered goals in the 62nd and 68th minute and were only rescued by a late PK that was converted by Anthony Gordon.  This meant extra time for a squad already running on fumes and facing 9 fixtures between 1/13 and 2/10.  Then, they managed to blow another lead in stoppage time; Harvey Barnes 118th minute goal looked to be the game winner until they conceded the equalizer at 120+2.  After consecutive misses in the shootout by Woltemade and Guimaraes their bird looked cooked but after a couple of stops by Ramsdale and six consecutive successful PKs, Newcastle prevailed.  

The negative consequences of this pyrrhic victory could be felt for weeks.

The Minnowest of Minnows

Fans flood the pitch immediately after the final whistle
Photo: Moss Ross AFP

Last week we did alert you to the biggest mismatch of the third round - Crystal Palace vs National League North (6th tier) side Macclesfield.  So of course the Silkmen (the town at one time was the largest producer of finished silk in the world), proceeded to fashion what is probably the biggest upset in FA Cup history.  A late first half goal gave them a tentative lead but a second goal at 61 minutes made the prospect of a monumental upset a real possibility.  Check out this BBC commentary of the two goals.  Palace did get one back at 90 minutes so second half stoppage time was a nail biter for the Macclesfield faithful but their side held on for the 2-1 win.  There was much rejoicing.  

Presumably the celebration was limited as many of the players had to head off for their second jobs as part-time coaches, PE instructors, gym owners, property investment managers and working in a candle business.  

Wrexham Spoiler Alert

Also last week we suggested that Wrexham - Nottingham Forest could be a fun match. We are happy to report that we were correct.  Wrexham built a 2-0 lead by half time, saw the two-goal lead cut in half at 64 minutes, then restored with a third goal at 74 minutes. Callum Hudson-Odoi, who had come on in the 69th minute, took control of things, scoring in the 76th and 89th minutes to send the match to extra time.  Neither side could score in extra time so the match was decided in a PK shootout.  Fossil Jay Rodriguez got the match winner for Wrexham and they advanced 4-3 on PKs.  Though technically an upset with the sides being in different divisions, as we pointed out last week, the difference in placement of the two sides was just 12 at the time of the match.  

By the Numbers

Results by division are listed below:

EPL  14-6

Championship 11-13

League One 4-4

League Two 2-7

National League 0-1

National League N/S 1-1

Four of the EPL loses were to top other flight teams - the other two were the aforementioned Macclesfield and Wrexham upsets. There were eight upsets in total, five crossing divisions. Six matches went to PKs.  We saw all or parts of West Ham - QPR (2-1 for the Hammers in extra time), Sheffield United - Mansfield (3-4 for Mansfield), Spurs - Aston Villa (1-2 for the Villans) and Man United - Brighton (1-2 for the Seagulls); all were good watches.  Fortunately we skipped some of the others like Man City 10-1 over Exeter City, Chelsea 5-1 over Charlton, Burnley 5-1 to Millwall and Burton 5-0 at Boreham Wood.

We Went There

Immediately upon viewing the results on the Fourth Round FA Cup draw, Dennis and I smelled a Big Six Bias in the supposedly random process.  Top table upstarts Newcastle and Aston Villa somehow got matched up while there is only one other fixture involving two EPL teams.  I asked Dennis to use his bs in Math from Bucknell to calculate 1) the likelihood that with 14 EPL sides and 16 matches, there would only be two featuring EPL sides and 2) the chances that all three of Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City would avoid an EPL competitor in their fixtures.  He provided the following precise calculations educated guesses:

1) basically zero

2) about 15%

Also, Chelsea got second tier Hull City, Arsenal got third tier Wigan, and Man City will face the winner of Swindon/Salford (both are 4th tier).  Okay, Liverpool does have to face Brighton but still...we demand an investigation.

Negative Consequences

Remember my earlier remark about how the extra time in the FA Cup match would come back to haunt Newcastle?  Didn't take long for it to happen.  The Magpies fell 0-2 to Man City in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final. Though not insurmountable, a two-goal deficit is daunting given they are heading to The Etihad for the second leg.  To be fair, Newcastle did not play all that poorly and were able to field a decent line-up.  Their downfall was a failure to convert some good chances (Wissa, cough, cough).  Still, one wonders how playing 120+ minutes on Saturday affected their performance just three days later against one of the best squads in Europe.

In the other semi, Arsenal will carry a 3-2 lead back to The Emirates against Chelsea.

You Think You're Having a Bad Year

Bubbles are bursting all around Nuno
Photo:Getty/AFP

We missed this in the pile of results last week but Jeremy H (teammate of Dennis and loyal Wolves fan) pointed out that Nuno Espirito Santo completed a lamentable double two weeks ago.  Back in Match Week 3 his Nottingham Forest side lost 3-0 to West Ham.  Fast forward to last Tuesday and Match Week 21 in which his West Ham side lost 2-1 to Nottingham Forest.  Yes, he managed to lose this fixture once for each side.  Cursory research did not yield any other examples of this happening but won't say it has never happened before.  In any case, Santo is under serious pressure with West Ham now seven points adrift of safety.  Under Nuno, the Hammers do have wins over Burnley, Newcastle, and draws with Everton, Bournemouth, Man United, and Brighton (twice).  Recent losses to relegation rivals Wolves and Nottingham Forest didn't help.  Still, sacking Nuno at this point would seem like another silly managerial change as opposed to a serious look at the quality of the squad.  That is, unless you want to believe that somehow, after leading perpetually under funded sides like Wolves (twice) and Nottingham Forest to 7th place finishes, Nuno has suddenly become a terrible manager.

A Frank Discussion

Speaking of potentially rash managerial decisions, Spurs' recent form has been no doubt disappointing and fans are chomping champing at the bit impatient for Thomas Frank to be sacked.  However, looking at personnel currently unavailable to Frank (seen here), those pleas seem premature to me.  That list is likely driven by the cumulative effects of overtraining under Ange, previous personnel decisions, a suspect physio department, the AFCON tournament, bad luck or all of the above, none of which can be legitimately laid at the feet of Frank.  If one of the factors for Spurs recent misfortunes has been the constant turnover of the manager, wouldn't this be a time for patience?  After all, Frank did get Brentford to the top flight, kept them there when no one gave them a chance and then moved the club up the table.  But then again, I still like Nuno.

Derbies and Champions League

Match Week 22 dawns bright and early with a Manchester Derby at 7:30 on USA.  Even at Old Trafford, City are a heavy favorite at 50% vs 26% for United.  This is followed immediately with a London derby between Chelsea and Brentford.  Opta tells us to ignore the table and says that 8th place Chelsea is 50% and 5th place Brentford is just 25%.  Another derby at the same time is Spurs - West Ham; Opta likes this as a chance for Spurs to stop the bleeding.   Possibly more competitive 10 am fixtures are Leeds vs Fulham or Sunderland hosting Crystal Palace.  Or, you could go with Liverpool - Burnley  but I smell a blowout there.  

The feature 12:30 match doesn't look all that cool; Arsenal is likely to beat up on Nottingham Forest, even on the road.

Sunday is a BFS double header.  Newcastle are at Wolves at 9 and Aston Villa host Everton at 11:30.  Visons of coming away with all three points better be dancing in their heads.

The week concludes with a tight, lower table match between Brighton and Bournemouth at 3 pm on Monday.

Champions League returns with Match Day 7 of 8 on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tuesday's best choice looks like Arsenal - Inter at 3 pm.  Thanks to favorable scheduling, you can also catch Bodo/Glimt hosting Man City at 12:45.  Spurs - Dortmund might be worth a look but that's also at 3 pm.  Wednesday we'll be locked into Newcastle - PSV; since the Magpies finish league play on the road to PSG, this would be a good one to take all three points, especially at St. James' Park.  EPL sides in action at the same time are Liverpool (at Marseille) and Chelsea (hosting Pafos).

Getting down to the wire as they'll come back next week for the final match day of league play.  Arsenal and Man City are in place for automatic advancement while the other four sides are still in the running for playoff spots.  

Europa Cup action is back too, with a full slate of matches on Thursday.  Aston Villa, looking good for a top 8 finish, could pretty much salt that away with at Fenerbahce.  Nottingham Forest, despite domestic league woes, are in position for a playoff spot; they're at Braga.

How did I do this before I retired?