How Was Your Holiday?

Forty matches in 14 days.  The second 20 were more interesting than the first. You definitely needed to stay with matches all the way to the end.  I count six second half stoppage time goals and another three after 80 minutes.  So much to discuss.

I'll start with a summary table showing how each side performed over the Fourteen Days of Football.  The chart includes points earned in the four fixtures, dropped points (12 minus points earned), expected points (based on Opta predictions) and actual versus expected points.  

Here's the rating system:

   A Christmas Story - You got a Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time; yes the Bumpuses hounds ate the turkey but you had Chinese duck instead.

            It's A Wonderful Life - things turned out pretty well

                    Love Actually - not everybody gets everything they wanted

                                   How the Grinch Stole Christmas - except this time his heart didn't grow 10 sizes that day and he did not return the presents or carve the roast beast

                                             Die Hard - Only Hans Gruber had a worse Christmas

Newcastle -  

The softness of their Festive Fixtures schedule is revealed by their expected points.  Only Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool had higher forecasts.  Fortunately, they won three of four, losing only to Man United.  None of the wins were pretty, though the 4-3 come from behind win over Leeds was fun to watch.  Two stoppage time goals to overcome a 2-3 deficit.  Seriously?  The goal from Harvey Barnes at 90+12 is an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Here's the view from the stands. Also:

 

Very happy that for once, an exciting match for the neutral wasn't a disaster for Newcastle.  Even as they have been maddeningly inconsistent, the Magpies have risen to 6th in the table.  Before they get too cocky though, I hope they realize that they are just two match weeks away from 15th.

Aston Villa -   

Maybe this should be 3.5.  The bonus points they got for beating Chelsea were somewhat offset by the disappointing 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace.  On the other hand, they did exceed expected points by a healthy 1.25, got more points than Liverpool, Chelsea and Man United and still sit third in the table with a 10 point cushion over 5th.  

Spurs  

Probably 2.5 is more accurate.  This is a tricky one because Opta wasn't particularly optimistic about Spurs' chances in many of these fixtures, despite what your head would have told you.  They were serious underdogs against Crystal Palace and Brentford but they managed a win and draw in those matches.  The draw with Sunderland was a disappointment.  So was the 3-2 loss at Bournemouth, especially with the losing goal surrendered at 90+5 minutes; note however in that one too, Spurs were the underdogs.  I know expectations are high for this club but they may need more time under Frank (assuming he isn't thrown under the bus).

Arsenal -    

They got pretty much everything they asked for while everyone in the chase pack was getting socks and underwear.  

Brentford -    

Presented with a schedule that offered a chance to pile up some points, the Bees took every advantage with wins over Bournemouth, Everton and Sunderland, only dropping points in a draw with Spurs.  Thus, we wake up to Brentford 5th in the table .  Not bad for a side expected to struggle after losing their manager and several key players.

West Ham -

One point out of twelve on offer, including defeats to two of their key relegation rivals.

 

Ratings for the others are below.

  

Fulham - Eight points, 3.35 better than expected, no longer relegation threatened, top half of the table

Wolves - Five points doesn't sound great but they more than tripled their point tally

Brighton - The Seagulls pretty much did what was expected

Leeds - Maybe generous given they only got three points but they had second toughest schedule

Bournemouth - Kind of like Leeds

Nottingham Forest - They had one job - beat West Ham - and they accomplished it so giving them the benefit of the doubt

Sunderland - Maybe 2.5 as they only got three points but they did get draws with Man City and Spurs

Everton - Five points but failed to take advantage of an easy set of fixtures (i.e. see draws with Wolves and Burnley)

Liverpool - Maybe 2.5 since they grabbed a point with the 0-0 draw at Arsenal; but they also had draws with Leeds and Fulham (see the Cottagers late equalizer here - ouch)

Man United - Maybe 2.5; six points but draws with Wolves, Leeds, and Burnley suggests it should have been more

Chelsea - Just two points and second worse performance against expected points; without this late equalizer from Fernandez against Man City it would have been just one point

Crystal Palace - Also, just two points but did hold on for draw against Villa

Man City - Maybe harsh given they took six points and were unbeaten over the four matches but they had the second easiest schedule and came away with only draws against Sunderland, Chelsea and Brighton.  

Burnley - Second lowest expectations and they didn't meet them

As we break for the FA Cup weekend, more than halfway through the season, Arsenal sit with a healthy six point lead.  Man City and Aston Villa look good with an 8 point margin over 4th and a 10 point margin over 5th.  At the bottom, West Ham, Burnley and Wolves look far adrift of safety.

Mark That Man?

Sunderland's Brobbey - I'd make sure you know 
where he is at all times
Photograph: Ian Stephen/Every Second Media/Shutterstock

Brian Brobbey of Sunderland has three goals and one assist this season.  Not an overwhelming haul by itself until you see the context:

10/25 - Assisted on goal at 90+3 minutes to beat Chelsea 2-1

11/8 - Goal at 90+4 minutes to draw Arsenal 2-2

11/29 - Goal at 69 minutes to beat Bournemouth 3-2

1/4 - Goal at 80 minutes to draw Spurs 1-1

That's six added points for Sunderland that right now are the difference between 10th and 16th in the table.  You can see his heroics against Spurs here.

Holiday Exits

Around this time of year "sack" is supposed to refer to the bag in which Santa carries the toys.  Not always though.  Last Thursday, Chelsea and Enzo Maresca "parted ways" and on Monday Ruben Amorim was sacked.  Neither action was unexpected yet they reveal the brutal weight of expectations for certain clubs.  Chelsea were in fifth at the time of the separation, which may be good enough again this year to make Champions League; also, recall that Chelsea won the Club World Cup this past summer.  Man United sit in sixth, level on points with Chelsea.  

As detailed here, Maresca's issues looked to be more about personnel decisions as opposed to performance, although two draws inside a month to Bournemouth probably didn't help.  Amorim has been under fire for a long time.  Draws with Wolves and Leeds just created the perfect time.  Last year United finished 15th and got off to a terrible start this year.  There was also the persistent view that he was inflexible in his tactical choices.  After the draw at Leeds, he also unloaded on upper management, as detailed here.

Wanna hear something hilarious?  Maresca is being discussed as a leading candidate to replace Amorim.  Chelsea have already named Liam Rosenior as their new manager.  For those keeping track at home, these are the 5th and 6th managerial changes in the 25/26 season - Pereira (Wolves), Santo and Postecoglou (Nottingham Forest), Potter (West Ham).

We Knew Him When - Part I

Happy to see Aaronson score but would prefer he do
it against clubs other than Newcastle
Photo:Getty Images Stu Forster

This was certainly a fun week for former Union attacker Brenden Aaronson.  His goal versus Man United got Leeds a draw in that one and his brace, by any reasonable assessment, should have led them to a victory over Newcastle.  Manager Daniel Farke has taken a lot of sh...guff for playing the USMNT forward.  Looking at his player ratings for the season, it would be fair to label his performance as inconsistent; he's had five matches below 6.3.  On the other hand, he has ten over 6.8, with a couple over 8. He does lead the team in assists.  It seems like he's prone to lose the ball but, as discussed in this article (an excellent discussion of Aaronson's performance this year and his own views on it), there are others on the Leeds squad who are worse.

Since Newcastle won't be seeing him again this season, I hope his scoring trend continues.

We Knew Him When - Part II

As noted by leading BFS Commenter Jeff H last week, Kai Wagner has moved on to Championship Division side Birmingham.  He celebrated his arrival with an assist just six minutes into his first match with the new club.  I wonder who will providing the assists for the Union with his departure.

And What About the Union?

Since the end of the season we've seen the departures of Wagner, Baribo and Glesnes, three key players on this year's Supporters Shield roster.  Easily the most troubling of these exits is Wagner's.  The only positive I can come up with is that at least he didn't go to Inter Miami, a move that had been discussed.  Frankie Westfield and Nathan Harriel can play left back but neither will offer the quality we got from Wagner; hopefully we see a transfer to fill this need.  As for Glesnes, the U have added Sery Larsen and Finn Sundstrom to cover the position.  Larsen is Danish but most recently played in Norway; do the Union have a type?  In place of Baribo, the U have signed Ghanian striker Ezekiel Alladoh from IM Brahminkarma IF Bropajama a top flight Swedish club for a club record $4.5 m transfer fee.  Baribo did net 16 goals last year but Alladoh looks like an intriguing signing.

Cups and More Cups

League play pauses this weekend for the "third round" of the FA Cup.  In a previous post, I explain the basics of that competition.  Though an older post, most of the information there is still relevant.  One change to note is that they scrapped the replays and now go to extra time, then penalty kicks as necessary.

This is the round in which the Premier League and the Championship division enter the tournament so 44 of the 64 slots are occupied by clubs from those two top tiers.  Two clubs from the sixth tier of English football are still alive - Macclesfield (14th in the National League South or 130th ranked) and Weston-super-Mare (2nd in National League North or 118th ranked).  Add in Boreham Wood from the National League (5th tier), plus Salford City, MK Dons, Cambridge, Grimsby, Cheltenham, Swindon Town, Fleetwood, Walsall and Shrewsbury from League Two and there's your list of minnows still swimming in the pool.  I guess maybe we should include the sides from League One in that list as well - Port Vale, Doncaster, Mansfield, Burton, Wigan, Blackpool, Exeter and Barnsley.

 

The lack of seeding, as usual, has produced a variety of strange match ups.  Crystal Palace gets Macclesfield - a difference of 117 places.  Next closest is Wolves getting League Two Shrewsbury - difference of 70.  There are a number of single digit differentials  (i.e. teams in the same division) matchups. For example, Swansea (17th in Championship) face West Brom (18th in Championship).  Eight Premier League sides will face one of their own (Everton vs Sunderland, Man United vs Brighton, Newcastle vs Bournemouth and Spurs vs Aston Villa).

A very interesting match up on Friday at 2:30 is Wrexham hosting Nottingham Forest.  Wrexham have rebounded very nicely from a poor start and now sit 9th in the Championship Table.  They are 16 points clear of relegation, six points out of second (automatic promotion) and just one point out of a promotion playoff position.  Forest are struggling in the bottom part of the tier one table so this could be a closer match than you might think.

Matches run from Friday afternoon to Monday afternoon.

Holiday fixtures are over but there is still mid-week football in the form of the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-finals.  On Tuesday Newcastle will host Man City and on Wednesday Chelsea and Arsenal will square off.  Both matches start at 3 pm.