Tiny Weary Derby

An uninspiring renewal of the Newcastle - Sunderland rivalry but the Carabao Cup quarter final was good.

A Derby "Without Much Coherence"

Great technique but the wrong goal
Photo: Carl Recine/Getty Images

Thus spake Champion.  One team didn't play like it was a derby.  That would be Newcastle.  The stats tell us how moribund this was - shots were 6/5, shots on target 2/1 and xG was .25/.28.  Never have two teams labored to produce so little offense.  The only tally was a Voldemort own goal, the best header of the day.  Everything about this says it should have been a 0-0 draw.  Except, you have to give Sunderland credit as they played defense with intensity and worked hard enough to deserve the win.  They did seem pretty happy about the whole thing at the end.

I expected there to be some criticism of what I thought was a pretty conservative game plan from Eddie Howe and indeed there was some (see here).  I wonder how much they missed Joe L Linton for this match.  They could have used some of his attitude and it might have been worth him getting the obligatory first half yellow to wake the side up.  There was some feistiness late but that was borne of frustration.

The derby issue asides, this was a true six pointer that could have put Newcastle ahead of Sunderland in the table but now they are four points behind their close rivals and are stuck in 12th.  

Conversation That Definitely Took Place 

Steve: We must have had an expect goals of .1 in the first half.

Dennis: A bit optimistic there. It was .02.

What's In A Derby?

Dennis raised a great point in advance of the Newcastle - Sunderland clash.  "What I don't understand is how the players are so feisty on these derbies. How many players are actually from the region?  I get that the fans hate each other."  Seems like a fair question.  Certainly some of the players are "home-grown" but rarely is a significant portion of a roster drawn from the region.  Maybe they feed off the fans.  His point seemed particularly apt watching Newcastle; Magpie players certainly did not seem especially fired up.

It's Hard Out There For A Relegation Candidate

With Fulham, Brentford, Nottingham Forest and Leeds all getting points, the gap for the bottom three grew again.  Burnley hung tough with Fulham for a little while but eventually came up short 2-3.  But at least theirs was quite the hard luck tale of the others.  West Ham had leads of 1-0 and 2-1 against Aston Villa but a brace from a surging Morgan Rogers turned it into a 2-3 defeat.  The expected goals for that one are just weird - 1.00 to .65 favor the Hammers.  But no one out bad lucks Wolves.  Though thoroughly dominated by Arsenal, they was level at 0-0 until the 70th minute, when the Gunners got an own goal off the back of Wolves keeper Johnstone.  Miracle of miracles, Arokodare scored an equalizer at 90 minutes and visions of a point danced in their heads.  Ah, but these are Wolves so everybody should have known better.  They surrendered a second own goal (a header off Mosquera) at 90+4 ended that dream.  Not that a point would make much of a dent in their deficit but it might have been something to build on.

Jesus Returns

Mosquera got credit for the goal but Jesus made the miracle happen
Photo:David Price/Arsenal FC/Getty Images

Wrong season and all but Jesus made his long-awaited return after a year's absence due to injury.  He came on as a late sub for Arsenal in their match against Wolves and arguably had an almost immediate impact.  Though he didn't get credit for the game winner, his challenge for the header was at least partly responsible for the own goal.

Other Stuff

Man City kept pace at the top with a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace.  Chelsea and Liverpool moved in the right direction with 2-0 wins over Everton and Brighton.  Spurs on the other hand fell 3-0 at Nottingham Forest and the stats say this was not a fluke; shots were 15/5, shots on target were 6/1 and xG was 2.29/.35.  Michael B was livid.  Hope you saw the Monday matinee 4-4 goalfest between Man United and Bournemouth.  No napping during that one.

What's Up With Expected Goals?

A very strange week for xG vis-a-vis results.  See the chart below from xgscore.io.

The first two make sense (and maybe Arsenal -Wolves) but after that?  The xG suggests a different result for every other match.  Draws for Sunderland - Newcastle, Burnley-Fulham, Liverpool - Brighton and maybe West Ham - Aston Villa.  Then wins for Leeds, Man United, and Crystal Palace.  I don't remember a week with so many results contrary to expected goals.

Three Quarters of a Quarter Final

Maybe it was harder than it should have been but Newcastle did grind out a 2-1 win over Fulham to advance to the Carabao Cup semi-finals.  The Cottagers did look the better side out of the gate and Wissa's goal at 9 minutes was definitely against the run of play.  Fulham got the equalizer shortly thereafter and really it was no less than they deserved.  Fortunately, slowly but surely the Magpies started to take the game back.  Unfortunately, it didn't pay off until second half stoppage time when Lewis Miley headed in a Tonali corner.  We make this fan's eye view of the play this week's YouTubeableMoment. Also:

On balance, it seemed like the right result. Plus Howe got in some line up rotation in advance of the Chelsea weekend clash.    

The Chelsea - Cardiff fixture produced a nap-worthy 3-1 match; actually the Welsh side did put up a good fight but it wasn't enough to keep me awake the whole time.  I saw the first half of Man City vs Brentford and the 2-0 win for the Citizens was probably well-deserved.

Arsenal and Crystal Palace still have to face off next week.  The winner of that match will play Chelsea while Newcastle will take on Man City.  The semi-finals are two legged ties and will take place the weeks of January 12th and February 2nd.

A Shockingly Quiet Week

Just Matchweek 17 for the EPL.

We get to rise at 7:30 for Newcastle - Chelsea.  Despite being at St. James' Park, this looks like trouble to me. Surprisingly, Opta has Newcastle at 41% to 32% over Chelsea but that seems "optamistic" to me.  Four at 10 am.  I'd go with Brighton - Sunderland as we see whether the Black Cats can continue to surprise; Opta says no but I'm not buying it.  You could go with Wolves - Brentford to see what bad luck might befall Wolves this week.  Sort of the same for Burnley as they travel to face Bournemouth. Man City is unlikely to be pressed by West Ham.  The feature 12:30 match reads like a true feature fixture except that Spurs and Liverpool have been enigmatic all season.  The special 3 pm feature match must be a hit because there are two of them this week.  You could go with Leeds - Crystal Palace or Everton - Arsenal; probably the latter for me.

Just a single Sunday match but it's a good one with Aston Villa hosting Man United at 11:30.  Opta has Villa at 58% to 21% there and I hope they are correct.  There's another Monday matinee - Fulham vs Nottingham Forest - at 3 pm; all signs point to a competitive match there.

Enjoy the mid-week off because starting next Friday, there are fixtures nearly every day until January 8th.