The Fourteen Days of Football

Friday starts the first of four match weeks to be completed by January 8th.  We'll try to keep track of the results and rate each team on their holiday performance.  Or maybe not.

This Is Why We Can't Have Nice Things

Pundits are saying the Newcastle 2-2 draw with Chelsea was a tale of two halves but really it was a tale of four quarters.  If it had been a tale of two halves, Newcastle would have lost 4-2.

He who cannot be stopped; Woltemade gets two more

The Magpies started well, controlling the match.  Within twenty minutes, Woltemade had a brace and Newcastle a 2-0 lead.  Chelsea reversed the flow right from the second half kick-off and leveled things by the 66th minute.  It was no less than they deserved.  At that point, I figured Newcastle were toast.  Instead they rallied and actually had the better chances in the final quarter of the match.  In the end though, they had to settle for the 2-2 draw, a result which takes them to a league leading 13 points dropped from winning positions. This was the 10th straight league match in which they failed to keep a clean sheet.   The defense is a little thin due to injuries but still.  These are reasons why the Magpies are languishing in 11th as opposed to fighting for top six spot.  

While still up 2-1, Newcastle did have a legitimate penalty shout.  You can see the play here (should open to 7:53 of the video).  Real time I thought for sure it was a PK and the replay did nothing to convince me otherwise.  Surprisingly, VAR Peter Bankes didn't even send Andy Madley to the monitor.  The official explanation from PGMOL, which said Chalobah's tackle was deemed "to be a side-to-side in a shielding action and the ball within playing distance," sounds ridiculous because there was no way Chalobah could have been shielding the ball since Gordon was between him and the ball.  If they had just stuck to something like it was a "shoulder-to-shoulder challenge"  that would at least be arguable. I'm clearly biased but ESPN offers their opinion here, which coincidentally matches mine.

Whatever, the referees were not responsible for Newcastle coughing up the lead or missing some of the golden opportunities they failed to convert.  

Conversation That Did Take Place

Steve: Before kickoff I would have gladly taken a 2-2 draw but it doesn't feel too good right now.

Michael: There are 157 patrons at Aikenside Pub in Newcastle who feel the same way.

Steve: The match left me with an "ache inside."

One Hot Mess

What to make of Spurs 1-2 loss at home to Liverpool?  This was a decent back-and-forth contest that had multiple twists and turns.  The first big event, with the score 0-0, was Xavi Simons getting a straight red at 33 minutes.  On the one hand, there was no intent on Simons' part so at first the red seems harsh.  The problem is that it's still a dangerous play - a cleat down the achilles; see the ESPN article provided under the Newcastle section for an explanation for why it was probably the correct call.

Isak scores but at what cost? 

Next we had Alexander Isak's first goal for Liverpool.  The problem for him is that he was
simultaneously getting a vigorous challenge from van de Ven.  Vigorous enough that he could not continue and was later diagnosed with "an ankle injury that included a fibula fracture."  He'll be out for several months.  Opinions vary as to whether van de Van should have been sanctioned.  The ball had not gone into the goal (i.e. was still in play) when the challenge occurred (see picture right).  In theory, if he had been quick enough, John Brooks could have signaled for a foul, played advantage and gone back to show a yellow if he thought it was a reckless challenge.  It's unrealistic to think he had the time to do that and once the play is over, the only possibility left is for a VAR review for a possible red card.  Some think it was excessive force but others think it was just a mistimed tackle that unfortunately led to an injury.  You are not supposed to sanction based on the injury, just the nature of the challenge.  Real time I didn't think it was a red card; it looked  like Isak actually put his leg in between van de Van's sliding legs.  

Meanwhile, there was a match still going on and Ekitike added a second goal for Liverpool.  Surely up a man and two goals, this was over.  Not so fast and please don't call me Shirley.  First of all, ignoring the scoreboard, Spurs had been doing pretty well.  They were rewarded with a goal from Richarlison at 83 minutes; suddenly Liverpool were hanging on for dear life.  Ah, but then Romero decided to get an extra kick in as he arose from a tackle, earning himself a second yellow and a sending off.  Liverpool would survive the closing minutes to take home all three points.

The stats are most curious for this one.  Likely reflecting the man advantage, Liverpool did dominate possession at 65/35.  But shots were 15/8 favor Spurs, shots on target were 4/4 and xG surprisingly favored Spurs at 1.08-.72.  Entertaining in its own way but certainly unsatisfying for Spurs fans.

Gappage

The two biggest gaps in the table right now are between 3rd and 4th (seven points) and 17th and 18th (five points).  The top three all took care of business.  Arsenal bested Everton 1-0, Man City took care of West Ham 3-0 and Aston Villa slipped by Man United 2-1.

Here's the first of Haaland's two goals against West Ham.  If there was ever a player not to give a second bite at the cherry or the apple or whatever fruit you choose, it's Haaland.

I remember thinking Villa were a bit lucky to get the win over Man United but there was nothing lucky about Morgan Rogers' two tallies. We'll make his game winner this week's YouTubeableMoment.

At the other end, Wolves went down 0-2 to Brentford.  The xG (1.24/1.32) suggests Wolves were unlucky again.  Burnley did grab a point at Bournemouth in a match in which each side managed just one shot on target.  One point isn't going to move the needle very much for Burnley.

Nappage - Matches I Slept Through Parts Of

Brighton 0 Sunderland 0 - I was expecting a lively contest here but it did not materialize.

Everton 0 Arsenal  1 - I thought Everton would put up more of a challenge at home but they managed a paltry two shots, none on target, for an xG of .18.  

Fulham 1 Nottingham Forest 0 - It was the close match I anticipated but with three total shots on target between the two sides plus nine yellow cards,  the eyelids got heavy real fast.

How the Grinch Stole Boxing Day

As previously lamented here, the Boxing Day fixture list is a skimpy one match, even if it is a good one. The problem is that if they moved too many matches to Friday, they wouldn't have enough "content" to meet TV contract demands Saturday and Sunday.  So we get an incredibly crowded Saturday 10 am slot and a thin Sunday to boot.

At least the Boxing Day fixture is interesting, with Newcastle traveling to face Man United.  The Magpies are slight underdogs here but I'm anticipating a lively match.  Not feeling compelled to get up at 7:30 Saturday to see Nottingham Forest - Man City.  The ridiculously congested 10 slot has five choices.  Opta says the London derby between West Ham and Fulham is the most competitive choice.  Liverpool - Wolves is the opposite.  Other choices are Brentford - Bournemouth, Arsenal - Brighton and Burnley - Everton.

The 12:30 feature fixture looks great with Chelsea hosting Aston Villa. The Blues are modest favorites playing at home but we've seen Villa play everybody tough so really looking forward to this one.  Sunday has Sunderland - Leeds at 9 and a London derby between Crystal Palace and Spurs at 11:30.  Opta has Palace as a serious favorite (49% to 25%, 26% draw); I guess that's fair given recent form but seems surprising.

Tuesday's matches are all crowded together.  We'll be doing Burnley - Newcastle and expecting three points.  Neutrals might do well to go with Arsenal - Aston Villa.  Yikes, Chelsea and Arsenal, both away, just three days apart for the Villans.  Other choices are Man United - Wolves, Chelsea - Bournemouth, and West Ham - Brighton.  Yeah, go with Arsenal - Aston Villa.

Thursday at 12:30 (what we can't have matches on New Year's Eve?) we have a London derby featuring Crystal Palace vs Fulham or Liverpool hosting Leeds.  At 3:00 you can do Sunderland - Man City or another London derby of Brentford - Spurs.  Kind of curious to see how the Black Cats do against a hot Man City but the other match may be more competitive.  

Thrilled to have things to watch over the holiday period.  Nitpicking perhaps but they could have done a better job in spreading them out.  If I truly believed these scheduling decisions were meant to ensure players get adequate rest I'd be on board but this looks to be driven by TV contracts, not real concern for player welfare.