Who's Worthy?

The current thinking is that the EPL is going to get five spots in the Champions League this year.  Based on this week's results, maybe they should just get one.  Most of the top ten sides dropped points.   To wit:

Bournemouth - 6 points, losing to Wolves and Brighton

Arsenal - 5 points, losing to West Ham and drawing with Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest - 5 points losing to Newcastle and drawing with Arsenal

Man City - 3 points losing to Liverpool

Chelsea - 3 points losing to Aston Villa

Newcastle - 3 points losing to Liverpool

Fulham - 3 points losing to Crystal Palace

Aston Villa - 3 points losing to Crystal Palace

Of the top ten, only Liverpool and Brighton came away unscathed.  It's fair to point out that some of those losses don't seem too bad.  I mean, just about everybody loses to Liverpool.  On the other hand, it's not like everybody behind them hasn't been exposed at least to some degree.

Exhibit A - Newcastle

Two more for Isak

Does this say Magpies or what?  Even as they were improving their position in the table they were demonstrating that they are probably not Champions League material.  They came out strong against Nottingham Forest and of course ceded a goal against the run of play.  Properly refocused, they proceeded to pour in four goals in 11 minutes.  Ah, but you know what they say about three goal leads. Newcastle spent the second half trying to give away the three points and were a bit lucky to come away with the 4-3 win.  So basically, Newcastle exposed Forest in the first half and Forest returned the favor in the second half.  

Hardly a surprise then that Newcastle offered nothing in a 2-0 loss to Liverpool at Anfield on Wednesday.  An xG of .31 says most of what you need to know.  It's not like they were blown out of the water but it's also true they could have played through this weekend and the Magpies would not have scored.  Certainly not having Isak (groin injury) didn't help.

And yet, there they sit sixth in the table, within four points of third, three out of fourth and two behind Chelsea in fifth.

Exhibit B - Aston Villa

Just as I was negotiating with myself that a 1-1 draw with Chelsea was just fine, Marco Asensio got the game winner in the 89th minute.  As you can see in this week's YouTubeableMoment, it was partly a great volley by Asensio and partly a howler by Chelsea keeper Jorgensen.  Note that Marcus Rashford had two assists.  Villa then went to Selhurst Park and absolutely stunk up the joint, losing 4-1.  They managed two shots on target and an xG of .55.  They sit 10th in the table but it's so packed they are just six points out of third.  

Exhibit C - Arsenal

The Gunners were in theory the strong number two side in the EPL.  They proceeded to lose 0-1 at home to West Ham and could only manage a 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest.  Okay, they were down a man from 73 minutes on versus West Ham but they were already losing.  At Forest, they managed just one shot on target - Gunners my butt.  They are still solidly in second place but that was some shaky stuff from them.

And the rest

Yes, we've been speculating about their possible imminent demise of Nottingham Forest for a few weeks now and certainly the first half against Newcastle looked like the stroke of midnight for Cinderella.  That they didn't give up and made that match uncomfortably close and they played Arsenal tough suggests they may be made of sterner stuff.  Man City has had flashes of brilliance but they were totally undone by Liverpool and hardly sparkled in a narrow 1-0 win over Tottenham (sorry, Spurs).  This is the fourth best club in the EPL?  And then there's Chelsea, who's inconsistency this season is matched only by Newcastle.  They would get that new fifth spot if the season ended today.

The bad news is that the title race is over.  The "good" news is that, in the absence of quality, the fight for the other three or four Champions League spots could be interesting.

Wolves Pulling Away?

With their 1-0 win over Bournemouth, Wolves are now five points clear of relegation.  The other three clubs - Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton - lost both of their respective matches by a collective 3-21.  

The Wrong Dive 

De Ligt's pull not penalized

In stoppage time at Goodison Park in a 2-2 match, Andy Madley signaled for PK for a foul against
Ashley Young.  You can see the play here (sorry I had to use the highlights again but didn't find a good video of just the incident).  Much to unpack and much wasn't really made clear until after the fact.  I was focused on de Ligt's shirt pull but that wasn't what Madley called - he had the foul on Maguire instead.  So the VAR review has to start there.  I think they got that right.  Maguire didn't really do anything.  The shirt pull is not ignored but it is now reviewed in a completely different context.  Was it a clear and obvious error that the shirt pull was not called on the field?  My rule is that if the shirt is pulled away from the body, I call it but that's just me.  There have been several instances where the shirt pull has been waved away as "fleeting."  If Madley had whistled De Ligt for the foul, I doubt VAR would have overturned it but that was not the situation here. ESPN has a helpful explanation of the whole thing here.

Frankly, I blame Young.  He opted for the dive to sell the Maguire contact but he should have fallen backwards to sell the de Ligt shirt pull. Gotta know your audience.

Did You Wonder Where the Yellow Went?

It's not Daylight Saving Time yet but the balls are white again

I did.  I thought the yellow balls were supposed to used until they moved to daylight saving time.  I remember in last Wednesday's Aston Villa - Liverpool match that the balls were white.  Then all the balls were white this weekend.  There is some explanation of the change here, but it doesn't tell us why they moved away from the high visibility ball while it was still winter (i.e. dark).  There may be a hint in the article.  Apparently, the EPL doesn't want Nike's balls anymore and is switching to Puma.  If I were Nike, what would I do?  Introduce one more official EPL ball before our contract expires to spur retail sales.  Kinda obvious, right?

Union Undefeated

Didn't get to see more than the highlights so I can't say much about the Union's 4-1 win over Orlando.  Good to see the names Baribo, Gazdag and Uhre on the scoresheet.  Mixed feeling about seeing Blake with six saves.  Good that he makes them, bad that he has to make that many.  Orlando were predicted for an upper table finish so maybe this is good.

FA Cup Again

We are into the fifth round with eight matches.  Fixture list is here.  Newcastle have a tricky match up with Brighton but at least it's at home.  Aston Villa are home versus Cardiff City (a Friday match).  Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea are already out so I'd make Man City the prohibitive favorite at this point, especially given that there opponent this weekend is the lowest rank side left in the competition - Plymouth.  

Laura and I will be at Subaru Park for the Union home opener against FC Cincinnati.  Figures to be a tough one plus it looks like the temperature will drop about 15 degrees over the course of the match.  

Oh man, more mid-week football as Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League all get down to the serious business of the Round of 16.  Champions League fixtures are spread over Tuesday and Wednesday.  Europa Cup and Conference League are all crammed into Thursday.  Check your local listings as they say.

Also, do not miss Dennis's travelogue piece on his trip to the Midlands.  So much stuff we had to make a separate post.