Thursday, January 30, 2025

Whatever It Takes

With several key matches on Peacock, a short Saturday schedule and an extended Sunday schedule bumping up against the Eagles, catching all the important action required some serious planning and watching matches on replay long after everybody else went to bed.  It's a tough job but somebody's got to do it.  


A Professional Win

I don't know who said it but it is an apt description of Newcastle's 3-1 victory at Southampton.  They fell behind early, kept their poise, got maybe a favorable VAR decision (see This Week in Refereeing below) and then pulled away for a 3-1 win.  Isak got two of the goals - one a PK and the other, this week's YouTubeableMoment; the precision pass from Jacob Murphy is almost as good as Isak's touch and finish.  Tonali also got on the board with an early second half goal that allowed the Magpies some breathing room.

This was in no sense a great performance and they never did quite enough to put the win completely to bed.  In fact, things could have gotten a touch dicey had a 85th minute tally from Southampton not been ruled out for offside.  Rather, they sort of coasted, content that they could protect the two goal lead against a weaker team.  Southampton have not seen a new manager bounce under Ivan Juric, losing their first six league matches of his reign (they do have an FA Cup win over Swansea).  


Walking Through Treacle

Thus Jon Champion described the first half of Fulham versus Man United.  Though hardly an improvement, Champion said play was a little better in the second half but was still "pallid."  Those of us who went the dvr route "missed" the first 18 minutes as the Duquesne - Fordham basketball game ran over time. The score was 0-0 at point.  It remained that way until Lisandro Martinez got a lucky deflection off a Fulham defender that looped its way over the head of keeper Bernd Leno in the 78th minute.  That was Man United's only shot on goal. Fulham managed just three of their own.  In all, not a great use of 90 72 minutes.


Another Relegation Six Pointer for Spurs?

Fraid so.  This time it was a 1-2 loss at home to Leicester.  The stats say this probably should have been a draw.  Possession was 60/40, shots 15/12 and shots on target 6/3, all in favor of Spurs.  But xG was 1.19-1.50 for the Foxes so a draw feels about right.  That's what it seemed like watching too.

The pressure to sack Postecoglou is intense.  Seven league contests without a win will do that.  Certainly injuries haven't helped.  That's an issue for everybody, right?  Maybe, but you could field a respectable first team Premier side with Tottenham's injury table.  On the other hand, this article suggests that the injury problem may be at least partly Postecoglou's fault.  I'm guessing he gets to stay at least through next week's League Cup semi-final second leg against Liverpool.  Spurs are up 1-0 heading to Anfield; lose that one and he may be done.


Did The Clock Struck Midnight for Nottingham Forest?

Get Outta Here: Dango Ouattara goes vertical
Glyn Kirk/AFP/Getty Images
Last week we looked at expected goals data and suggested that maybe Forest have been extremely
lucky this year and that some decline might be inevitable.  Not sure we meant this much this fast but they got absolutely steamrollered by Bournemouth 5-0.  The Cherries, while maybe not dominant, were clearly the better side in the first half, though the lead was just 1-0.  Then Dango Ouattara unleashed a natural hat trick, scoring at 55, 61 and 87 minutes.  That was some leap on the first one (see picture right).

Of course it is just one result so we shouldn't be thinking they've been turned back into a pumpkin yet.


Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: How did Forest get both Wood and Anderson from Newcastle and make both of them not suck?
Steve: I thought Wood had bad luck at Newcastle and Anderson was decent and was only let go because of financial reasons.
Dennis: I don't think Wood was "bad luck" away from scoring 15 goals, was he?
Steve: Fair point.  He was bad luck away from not looking like he sucked.

 

Other Stuff

Villa did not distinguish themselves in a 1-1 draw with West Ham; Dennis actually warned me away from this one, indicating it was probably a waste of time.  Man City conceded an early goal against Chelsea but answered with three of their own and looked clearly the superior side.  First and second place Liverpool and Arsenal got wins against relegation sides.  Liverpool piled more misery on Ipswich with a 4-1 win while Arsenal squeaked out a 1-0 win at Wolves.  The Gunners were down a man (see This Week in Refereeing) but survived until Wolves got a player sent off too, then scored the game winner.  And Brentford slowed Crystal Palace's roll with a 2-1 win at Selhurst Park.


This Week in Refereeing

Some interesing decisions on Saturday.  Initially I felt all three were bad use of VAR but have subsequently downgraded my assessment to only one was bad.  In the Newcastle match, Isak was maybe fouled in the box; you can see the play here. Real time I didn't think it was a foul.  First few replays still left me skeptical.  But if you follow the tackle all the way through, it sure looks to me like the defender hooks his leg around Isak.  I think it's a foul.  As to the use of VAR, well, the fact that it took so long to make a decision does indicate it wasn't the clearest and most obvious error of the year.  I would not have been outraged if Sam Barrott had declined to change his call.  On the other hand, it didn't even get mentioned in this week's ESPN review of VAR decisions so maybe we can move on.

Next up was a handling call against Brighton's Veltman, seen here.  Again, real time the on-field call of a corner seemed okay.  Though not necessariy obvious in the first few views, replays showed that Veltman actually took a swipe at the ball with his arm and it was not a result of the attacker pushing him.  Still on the fringes of clear and obvious error for me but probably a good use of VAR. That was the only goal in Everton's 1-0 win.

Which brings us to the more problemmatic play.  As he was breaking out of the Wolves penalty area, Matt Doherty was fouled by Myles Lewis-Skelly.  You can see the play here.  Real time I thought reckless maybe, tactical certainly.  Obvious yellow card.  Nope, Michael Oliver went for straight red for serious foul play.  VAR Darren England confirmed the call, feeling there was no clear and obvious error.  Yikes. Though I think the call was wrong, I'm not too down on Michael Oliver here.  With only one look at it in real time, full speed, he thought Lewis-Skelly raked his studs down Doherty's achilles heel.  That isn't what happened but it was close enough that you can see what Oliver thought he saw.  My issue is why didn't England send Oliver to the monitor.  The conversation should have gone something like this:

Oliver: The defender raked his studs down the attacker's achilles heel - that's serious foul play

England:  Michael, on the replays, I'm not seeing contact with the achilles and I'm not 100% sure this wasn't just tripping.  You should go to the monitor.

Hard to believe Oliver wouldn't have changed the call if had looked at it again. As Dennis pointed out, this is exactly why we have VAR and they blew it.  Not finding much (any?) support for Oliver or England on this one except for some tepid excuses by Michael Dean.  By Tuesday, Arsenal had already successfully appealed the red card and Lewis-Skelly won't face a three-match ban.  Unfortunately, it has brought the worst in some fans, with Oliver and his family subjected to threats and abuse. Neanderthals.  Your team still won 1-0.


Just Another Manic Wednesday - and Thursday (apologies to The Bangles)

Count me in as a supporter of the new format for Champions League and Europa Cup.  As each competition wrapped up their first rounds, we were treated to teams moving back and forth between automatic qualifiers to the next round, the playoffs for the next round or tickets home.  Aston Villa were a prime example.  They were up on Celtic 2-0 in five minutes thanks to a quick brace from Morgan Rogers and looking like a lock for top eight.  Then, they were were sitting in ninth before halftime thanks to an equally quick brace from Adam Idah.  Ollie Watkins put them back in the top eight with a goal at 60 minutes and Rogers added insurance, completing his hat trick in stoppage time.  But even then Villa weren't safe because Lille were passing them on goal differential and another goal from Atalanta against Barca would have dropped them back to ninth.  Barca held and Villa are in.

Man City were on the roller coaster too.  Down 0-1 at halftime, they were looking at being bounced from the competition altogether.  Three unanswered goals gave them a 3-1 victory, 22nd place and a spot in the playoffs.

Liverpool lost but Barca's draw meant the Reds held onto first place.  Arsenal bested Girona and nabbed third place.  So the final tally was three EPL sides in the top eight and all four move on. 

Mr. Scarlett with the header in the box
Dave Shopland/AP
A bit of the same thing in Europa Cup.  Facing Swedish side Elfsborg, Tottenham were locked in a 0-0 duel.  By itself that wasn't a problem but one slip up could have dropped them to ninth.  Enter a trio of academy products (Dane Scarlett, Oyindamola Ajayi and Mikey Moore) who proceeded to each get their first senior goals for Spurs and they coasted to a 3-0 final and fourth place.  Man United also won and finished third.

Add Chelsea who had already qualified for the knockout stage of Europa Conference League and you have all seven EPL sides advancing.



We Definitely Caraboa It Now

Holding a 2-0 lead over Arsenal, heading to St. James' Park for the second leg, Newcastle are close to a second trip to the Carabao League Cup final in three years.  That will be Wednesday at 3 pm.  We do make fun of the competition regularly but not when we might make the final.  Spurs, up 1-0 on Liverpool, are in the other semi on Thursday at 3 pm at Anfield.

In the interim, we have Matchweek 24 running Saturday - Monday.  There is a 7:30 match and it's worth getting up for - Nottingham Forest hosting Brighton.  This is a chance for Forest to show they are not turning into a pumpkin but the Seagulls are no pushover and Opta sees this one as very close. Four 10 am matches to choose from and I can give you a reason to go with any one of them.  We of course have to watch Newcastle - Fulham; while the Magpies are solid favorites, this still could be a good watch.  Bournemouth put their 11-game unbeaten streak on the line at home versus Liverpool; the Cherries are decided underdogs here but we'll be curious how they fare against the league leaders.  Or you could go with one of the two relegation specials - Ipswich vs Southampton or Everton vs Leicester.  The former is pretty close to a must win for both.  The latter could be the difference between Everton finally breaking free of the relegation zone gravity or being drawn back into the fray.  USA is going with Bournemouth - Liverpool; Peacock for the rest.

The 12:30 feature match, back on NBC, is Wolves - Aston Villa.  Homefield advantage might make this a bit closer but Villa really should have the resources to get all three here.

Sunday has good stuff too, with Arsenal hosting Man City at 11:30.  Peacock is definitely trying to flex its muscles by keeping some the better fixtures off TV and this is one of them.  At 9 am you can do Brentford - Tottenham (on USA) or Man United - Crystal Palace (Peacock).  Reflecting the recent hard times, Brentford are prohibitive favorites (44% win, 24% draw) over Spurs; still shocking to see that.

The matchweek concludes Monday with a London derby featuring Chelsea - West Ham at 3 pm.

You can take Tuesday off, then proceed to the Carabao semis on Wednesday and Thursday.  Next weekend's FA Cup 4th round will feature matches Friday through Tuesday so that will be your only day off for a while. 






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