Back Down to Earth

A huge pile of results to go through and a very mixed set of results it is.

You Can't Win Them All

For several reasons, I'm way less disheartened by Newcastle's 1-4 loss at home to Bournemouth than one might expect.  First, while the Magpies were in form, Bournemouth came in even hotter, unbeaten in their last 10 (now 11).  Second, over the course of their own nine match undefeated run, Newcastle were on the lucky side.  And lastly, the final score overstates the magnitude of the loss; this was 1-2 until stoppage time.

Isak considers basketball after a bad afternoon vs Bournemouth

On the glass is 3/4 empty side, late goals or not, Bournemouth were clearly the better side. There were too many soft takeaways in midfield (looking at you Bruno) and too many gifted misplaced passes. Overall, where they had been doing an excellent job at anticpating opponents' play, this time they were mostly reactive.  Not that they had been perfect during the streak but Bournemouth punished them for the mistakes that previous sides had failed to capitalize on.  No reason to panic at this point, just that the result was a reminder not to overestimate this team's capabilities.

Villa Validate Confidence

While we are typically overly pessimistic about Newcastle, we have been the opposite with Aston Villa.  Last week, despite Opta's prediction of Arsenal as a heavy favorite, we were confident that Villa would make a match of it.  And, after a slow start, they did just that.  I will confess some doubts after Arsenal went up 2-0 at 55 minutes.  Tielemans goal just five minutes later quickly restored a positive attitude, which was rewarded with Ollie Watkins' equalizer at 68 minutes. Even with the slight stumble in his goal celebration slide, we make Watkins' goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The 2-2 final seemed about right, though the stats generally favored the Gunners.  However, xG was only 1.51 - 1.10 so a draw isn't that crazy a result.  

Misery Loves Company

Already mentioned Newcastle and Arsenal but they were not alone.  Not sure which result was worse but Man United fell 1-3 at Old Trafford to Brighton while Tottenham were beaten 3-2 by Everton at Goodison Park.  All United could manage was a soft PK, that being their only shot on target.  That sounds bad until you realize that at one point, Spurs were down 0-3 to Everton.  It's sad to think that Everton - Tottenham was a borderline relegation six-pointer.

Another one for Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood
Andrew Boyers/Action Images/Reuters

Brentford looked to have pulled off a 0-0 draw with Liverpool only to concede two stoppage time goals.  Ipswich were buried by MCI 0-6 and Leicester were held scoreless again, 0-2 to Fulham.  

Not miserable were Nottingham Forest (3-2 over Southampton), Chelsea (3-1 over Wolves) and Crystal Palace (2-0) over West Ham.  Palace have 11 points in the last five matches and have clearly removed themselves from the relegation fight.  

It Hasn't Struck Midnight for Cinderella

Once upon a time there was this wonky blogger who wondered how Nottingham Forest (even their name sounds like it's from a fairy tale) got to be level on points with second place Arsenal.  So he looked at expected goals to see whether they might shed any light on whether Forest is going to be turned back into a pumpkin soon.  The table below is taken from the xGscore website.  

Green numbers are good, red are bad.  Nottingham Forest has the biggest green number in Expected Points at 11.2;  the next closest are Newcastle and West Ham at 2.7.  There are two basic explanations for green numbers in these tables - either you've been lucky or for some reason your skills are that much better than the others.  That is, Forest may have just been lucky in scoring 3.1 more goals than expected or they are just better at finishing than the average team.  I don't mean to cast aspersions on Forest lineup but I'm leaning more toward the luck explanation than a highly skilled team.  Though highly anecdotal I know, I remember thinking Chris Wood's scoring woes at Newcastle were simply down to a run of bad luck.  Maybe this season is making up for that.  But I fear they may not live happily ever after.

Super Wonk

There was something else in the table that puzzled me no end.  Tottenham have scored 5.5 goals more than expected and allowed 2.5 fewer than expected and yet their expected points are 8 worse than expected.  That doesn't make sense; wouldn't we guess that their point total was much higher than expected?  What's going on here?  This must be due to a third factor - your distribution of goals and expected goals across games.  Maybe Spurs have great positive numbers for expected goals in a lot of matches where it doesn't make a difference but a few days when it goes against them.  Take 12/15/24 when Spurs mauled Southampton 5-0.  The xG for that game was 2.84 - .96.  So they got 2.16 more than expected and conceded .96 less but the gain on expected points was probably negligible.  Compare that to 9/15 when they lost 0-1 to Arsenal and xG was .79 - .88.  They were .79 worse in scoring and just .12 worse in conceding; this was probably expected points of around 1 and they got 0.  So if the luck evens out on expected goals we would say they could get worse but if their luck improves on timing, maybe they'll get better.  Love it when a data dive leaves you with more questions than when you started.  Oh look, we're out of time for any more wonkiness.

Sacre Bleu

A pair of French sides rained on some EPL sides prospects in the Champions League.  On Tuesday Aston Villa stumbled through an 0-1 loss to Monaco.  It's not like the home side were any great shakes, but Villa couldn't break through.  The loss did put their chances of an automatic qualifier in jeopardy but they'll at least get a spot in the playoffs.  Way more shocking was Man City's collapse in Paris.  Up 2-0 on PSG, they eventually lost 4-2.  City are now in 25th place and not even assured of a spot in the playoff round.  Liverpool (a sloppy 2-1 win over Lilles) and Arsenal (easy 3-0 victory over Dinamo Zagreb) had a better time of it.  Liverpool are guaranteed advancement to the knockout phase; Arsenal aren't quite assured of a top eight finish but their massive goal differential probably means they'll get an automatic berth too.

In Europa Cup, Spurs did their Spurs thing and managed to turn a 2-0 lead into close 3-2 final. Man United had a wild one with Rangers, winning in stoppage time on a Fernandes goal seen here.  Both Spurs and United will be playing for an automatic berth to the knockout round but are already assured of at least making the playoff round.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Thomas Tuchel was going to the MLS?

Steve: No, I said he was the new England manager.

Champions League Free-for-all

Matchweek 23 for the EPL but the big action will be the final games in the first round of Champions League and Europa Cup.

There is no 7:30 Saturday contest and we are fine with that.  However, it does mean a crowded 10 am slot.  We'll be watching Newcastle at Southampton because we have to.  This is a no-win fixture for the Magpies; that is, no win would be a minor disaster.  For the neutrals, the easy choice is Bournemouth hosting Nottingham Forest.  This is another serious test for Cinderella as the Cherries are solid favorites here (46% for the win, 25% for a draw).  Also, it's the TV game.  Wolves - Arsenal doesn't sound too good and Ipswich at Liverpool looks like a train wreck.  Brighton - Everton might be okay.  The feature 12:30 match is worthy of the slot - Man City hosting Chelsea.  Except note that it's a feature match for Peacock, not NBC.  Displaced by skiing, auto racing and figure skating?  Ouch. Probably just a money play to boost Peacock subscriptions. 

Sunday has four matches nicely spread out except the last on might run into the Eagles - Rams NFC Championship game.  At 9 am you can do Crystal Palace - Brentford, an unlikely sounding London Derby or Tottenham - Leicester, which may offer the Spurs at chance to regain their balance.  Opta projections suggest you go with Palace - Brentford but USA went with Spurs.  Aston Villa - West Ham is the 11:30 match; we fully expect the Villans to recover from their mid-week Champions League stumble.  The matchweek ends with Fulham - Man United at 2 pm.  Who knows what to think there, though Opta have made the Cottagers a solid favorite (43% win, 26% draw).

The Champions League first round concludes with all 16 matches kicking off at 3 pm on Wednesday.  Permutations are simply too numerous to assess completely.  Liverpool are already advancing to the knockout phase and will probably finish first - they play at PSV.  Arsenal are sitting pretty and only need a draw at Girona to clinch an automatic berth.  Even with a win over Celtic, Aston Villa would still need one of the clubs in reach above them to drop points to get a top eight finish. Assuming I read everything right, if Man City defeat Club Brugge, they squeeze into the top 24 and at least get to the playoffs for a knockout berth.

We'll turn around and do the same thing with the Europa Cup on Thursday at 3 pm.  Man United and Spurs will guarantee themselves advancement to the knockout phase with wins over FCSB and IF Elfsborg respectively.  Draws would leave them vulnerable to results from sides below them in the standings.  I'm sure they would both prefer to avoid the playoffs as that means two more midweek matches in an already crowded schedule.  

I think I caught a break as a board meeting will likely be moved from Wednesday at 2 pm to the following week.  Also, appointments Thursday morning but the afternoon looks clear. Getting the hang of this.