Whatever It Takes

With several key matches on Peacock, a short Saturday schedule and an extended Sunday schedule bumping up against the Eagles, catching all the important action required some serious planning and watching matches on replay long after everybody else went to bed.  It's a tough job but somebody's got to do it.  

A Professional Win

I don't know who said it but it is an apt description of Newcastle's 3-1 victory at Southampton.  They fell behind early, kept their poise, got maybe a favorable VAR decision (see This Week in Refereeing below) and then pulled away for a 3-1 win.  Isak got two of the goals - one a PK and the other, this week's YouTubeableMoment; the precision pass from Jacob Murphy is almost as good as Isak's touch and finish.  Tonali also got on the board with an early second half goal that allowed the Magpies some breathing room.

This was in no sense a great performance and they never did quite enough to put the win completely to bed.  In fact, things could have gotten a touch dicey had a 85th minute tally from Southampton not been ruled out for offside.  Rather, they sort of coasted, content that they could protect the two goal lead against a weaker team.  Southampton have not seen a new manager bounce under Ivan Juric, losing their first six league matches of his reign (they do have an FA Cup win over Swansea).  

Walking Through Treacle

Thus Jon Champion described the first half of Fulham versus Man United.  Though hardly an improvement, Champion said play was a little better in the second half but was still "pallid."  Those of us who went the dvr route "missed" the first 18 minutes as the Duquesne - Fordham basketball game ran over time. The score was 0-0 at point.  It remained that way until Lisandro Martinez got a lucky deflection off a Fulham defender that looped its way over the head of keeper Bernd Leno in the 78th minute.  That was Man United's only shot on goal. Fulham managed just three of their own.  In all, not a great use of 90 72 minutes.

Another Relegation Six Pointer for Spurs?

Fraid so.  This time it was a 1-2 loss at home to Leicester.  The stats say this probably should have been a draw.  Possession was 60/40, shots 15/12 and shots on target 6/3, all in favor of Spurs.  But xG was 1.19-1.50 for the Foxes so a draw feels about right.  That's what it seemed like watching too.

The pressure to sack Postecoglou is intense.  Seven league contests without a win will do that.  Certainly injuries haven't helped.  That's an issue for everybody, right?  Maybe, but you could field a respectable first team Premier side with Tottenham's injury table.  On the other hand, this article suggests that the injury problem may be at least partly Postecoglou's fault.  I'm guessing he gets to stay at least through next week's League Cup semi-final second leg against Liverpool.  Spurs are up 1-0 heading to Anfield; lose that one and he may be done.

Did The Clock Struck Midnight for Nottingham Forest?

Get Outta Here: Dango Ouattara goes vertical
Glyn Kirk/AFP/Getty Images

Last week we looked at expected goals data and suggested that maybe Forest have been extremely
lucky this year and that some decline might be inevitable.  Not sure we meant this much this fast but they got absolutely steamrollered by Bournemouth 5-0.  The Cherries, while maybe not dominant, were clearly the better side in the first half, though the lead was just 1-0.  Then Dango Ouattara unleashed a natural hat trick, scoring at 55, 61 and 87 minutes.  That was some leap on the first one (see picture right).

Of course it is just one result so we shouldn't be thinking they've been turned back into a pumpkin yet.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: How did Forest get both Wood and Anderson from Newcastle and make both of them not suck?

Steve: I thought Wood had bad luck at Newcastle and Anderson was decent and was only let go because of financial reasons.

Dennis: I don't think Wood was "bad luck" away from scoring 15 goals, was he?

Steve: Fair point.  He was bad luck away from not looking like he sucked.

 

Other Stuff

Villa did not distinguish themselves in a 1-1 draw with West Ham; Dennis actually warned me away from this one, indicating it was probably a waste of time.  Man City conceded an early goal against Chelsea but answered with three of their own and looked clearly the superior side.  First and second place Liverpool and Arsenal got wins against relegation sides.  Liverpool piled more misery on Ipswich with a 4-1 win while Arsenal squeaked out a 1-0 win at Wolves.  The Gunners were down a man (see This Week in Refereeing) but survived until Wolves got a player sent off too, then scored the game winner.  And Brentford slowed Crystal Palace's roll with a 2-1 win at Selhurst Park.

This Week in Refereeing

Some interesing decisions on Saturday.  Initially I felt all three were bad use of VAR but have subsequently downgraded my assessment to only one was bad.  In the Newcastle match, Isak was maybe fouled in the box; you can see the play here. Real time I didn't think it was a foul.  First few replays still left me skeptical.  But if you follow the tackle all the way through, it sure looks to me like the defender hooks his leg around Isak.  I think it's a foul.  As to the use of VAR, well, the fact that it took so long to make a decision does indicate it wasn't the clearest and most obvious error of the year.  I would not have been outraged if Sam Barrott had declined to change his call.  On the other hand, it didn't even get mentioned in this week's ESPN review of VAR decisions so maybe we can move on.

Next up was a handling call against Brighton's Veltman, seen here.  Again, real time the on-field call of a corner seemed okay.  Though not necessariy obvious in the first few views, replays showed that Veltman actually took a swipe at the ball with his arm and it was not a result of the attacker pushing him.  Still on the fringes of clear and obvious error for me but probably a good use of VAR. That was the only goal in Everton's 1-0 win.

Which brings us to the more problemmatic play.  As he was breaking out of the Wolves penalty area, Matt Doherty was fouled by Myles Lewis-Skelly.  You can see the play here.  Real time I thought reckless maybe, tactical certainly.  Obvious yellow card.  Nope, Michael Oliver went for straight red for serious foul play.  VAR Darren England confirmed the call, feeling there was no clear and obvious error.  Yikes. Though I think the call was wrong, I'm not too down on Michael Oliver here.  With only one look at it in real time, full speed, he thought Lewis-Skelly raked his studs down Doherty's achilles heel.  That isn't what happened but it was close enough that you can see what Oliver thought he saw.  My issue is why didn't England send Oliver to the monitor.  The conversation should have gone something like this:

Oliver: The defender raked his studs down the attacker's achilles heel - that's serious foul play

England:  Michael, on the replays, I'm not seeing contact with the achilles and I'm not 100% sure this wasn't just tripping.  You should go to the monitor.

Hard to believe Oliver wouldn't have changed the call if had looked at it again. As Dennis pointed out, this is exactly why we have VAR and they blew it.  Not finding much (any?) support for Oliver or England on this one except for some tepid excuses by Michael Dean.  By Tuesday, Arsenal had already successfully appealed the red card and Lewis-Skelly won't face a three-match ban.  Unfortunately, it has brought the worst in some fans, with Oliver and his family subjected to threats and abuse. Neanderthals.  Your team still won 1-0.

Just Another Manic Wednesday - and Thursday (apologies to The Bangles)

Count me in as a supporter of the new format for Champions League and Europa Cup.  As each competition wrapped up their first rounds, we were treated to teams moving back and forth between automatic qualifiers to the next round, the playoffs for the next round or tickets home.  Aston Villa were a prime example.  They were up on Celtic 2-0 in five minutes thanks to a quick brace from Morgan Rogers and looking like a lock for top eight.  Then, they were were sitting in ninth before halftime thanks to an equally quick brace from Adam Idah.  Ollie Watkins put them back in the top eight with a goal at 60 minutes and Rogers added insurance, completing his hat trick in stoppage time.  But even then Villa weren't safe because Lille were passing them on goal differential and another goal from Atalanta against Barca would have dropped them back to ninth.  Barca held and Villa are in.

Man City were on the roller coaster too.  Down 0-1 at halftime, they were looking at being bounced from the competition altogether.  Three unanswered goals gave them a 3-1 victory, 22nd place and a spot in the playoffs.

Liverpool lost but Barca's draw meant the Reds held onto first place.  Arsenal bested Girona and nabbed third place.  So the final tally was three EPL sides in the top eight and all four move on. 

Mr. Scarlett with the header in the box
Dave Shopland/AP

A bit of the same thing in Europa Cup.  Facing Swedish side Elfsborg, Tottenham were locked in a 0-0 duel.  By itself that wasn't a problem but one slip up could have dropped them to ninth.  Enter a trio of academy products (Dane Scarlett, Oyindamola Ajayi and Mikey Moore) who proceeded to each get their first senior goals for Spurs and they coasted to a 3-0 final and fourth place.  Man United also won and finished third.

Add Chelsea who had already qualified for the knockout stage of Europa Conference League and you have all seven EPL sides advancing.

We Definitely Caraboa It Now

Holding a 2-0 lead over Arsenal, heading to St. James' Park for the second leg, Newcastle are close to a second trip to the Carabao League Cup final in three years.  That will be Wednesday at 3 pm.  We do make fun of the competition regularly but not when we might make the final.  Spurs, up 1-0 on Liverpool, are in the other semi on Thursday at 3 pm at Anfield.

In the interim, we have Matchweek 24 running Saturday - Monday.  There is a 7:30 match and it's worth getting up for - Nottingham Forest hosting Brighton.  This is a chance for Forest to show they are not turning into a pumpkin but the Seagulls are no pushover and Opta sees this one as very close. Four 10 am matches to choose from and I can give you a reason to go with any one of them.  We of course have to watch Newcastle - Fulham; while the Magpies are solid favorites, this still could be a good watch.  Bournemouth put their 11-game unbeaten streak on the line at home versus Liverpool; the Cherries are decided underdogs here but we'll be curious how they fare against the league leaders.  Or you could go with one of the two relegation specials - Ipswich vs Southampton or Everton vs Leicester.  The former is pretty close to a must win for both.  The latter could be the difference between Everton finally breaking free of the relegation zone gravity or being drawn back into the fray.  USA is going with Bournemouth - Liverpool; Peacock for the rest.

The 12:30 feature match, back on NBC, is Wolves - Aston Villa.  Homefield advantage might make this a bit closer but Villa really should have the resources to get all three here.

Sunday has good stuff too, with Arsenal hosting Man City at 11:30.  Peacock is definitely trying to flex its muscles by keeping some the better fixtures off TV and this is one of them.  At 9 am you can do Brentford - Tottenham (on USA) or Man United - Crystal Palace (Peacock).  Reflecting the recent hard times, Brentford are prohibitive favorites (44% win, 24% draw) over Spurs; still shocking to see that.

The matchweek concludes Monday with a London derby featuring Chelsea - West Ham at 3 pm.

You can take Tuesday off, then proceed to the Carabao semis on Wednesday and Thursday.  Next weekend's FA Cup 4th round will feature matches Friday through Tuesday so that will be your only day off for a while. 

Back Down to Earth

A huge pile of results to go through and a very mixed set of results it is.

You Can't Win Them All

For several reasons, I'm way less disheartened by Newcastle's 1-4 loss at home to Bournemouth than one might expect.  First, while the Magpies were in form, Bournemouth came in even hotter, unbeaten in their last 10 (now 11).  Second, over the course of their own nine match undefeated run, Newcastle were on the lucky side.  And lastly, the final score overstates the magnitude of the loss; this was 1-2 until stoppage time.

Isak considers basketball after a bad afternoon vs Bournemouth

On the glass is 3/4 empty side, late goals or not, Bournemouth were clearly the better side. There were too many soft takeaways in midfield (looking at you Bruno) and too many gifted misplaced passes. Overall, where they had been doing an excellent job at anticpating opponents' play, this time they were mostly reactive.  Not that they had been perfect during the streak but Bournemouth punished them for the mistakes that previous sides had failed to capitalize on.  No reason to panic at this point, just that the result was a reminder not to overestimate this team's capabilities.

Villa Validate Confidence

While we are typically overly pessimistic about Newcastle, we have been the opposite with Aston Villa.  Last week, despite Opta's prediction of Arsenal as a heavy favorite, we were confident that Villa would make a match of it.  And, after a slow start, they did just that.  I will confess some doubts after Arsenal went up 2-0 at 55 minutes.  Tielemans goal just five minutes later quickly restored a positive attitude, which was rewarded with Ollie Watkins' equalizer at 68 minutes. Even with the slight stumble in his goal celebration slide, we make Watkins' goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The 2-2 final seemed about right, though the stats generally favored the Gunners.  However, xG was only 1.51 - 1.10 so a draw isn't that crazy a result.  

Misery Loves Company

Already mentioned Newcastle and Arsenal but they were not alone.  Not sure which result was worse but Man United fell 1-3 at Old Trafford to Brighton while Tottenham were beaten 3-2 by Everton at Goodison Park.  All United could manage was a soft PK, that being their only shot on target.  That sounds bad until you realize that at one point, Spurs were down 0-3 to Everton.  It's sad to think that Everton - Tottenham was a borderline relegation six-pointer.

Another one for Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood
Andrew Boyers/Action Images/Reuters

Brentford looked to have pulled off a 0-0 draw with Liverpool only to concede two stoppage time goals.  Ipswich were buried by MCI 0-6 and Leicester were held scoreless again, 0-2 to Fulham.  

Not miserable were Nottingham Forest (3-2 over Southampton), Chelsea (3-1 over Wolves) and Crystal Palace (2-0) over West Ham.  Palace have 11 points in the last five matches and have clearly removed themselves from the relegation fight.  

It Hasn't Struck Midnight for Cinderella

Once upon a time there was this wonky blogger who wondered how Nottingham Forest (even their name sounds like it's from a fairy tale) got to be level on points with second place Arsenal.  So he looked at expected goals to see whether they might shed any light on whether Forest is going to be turned back into a pumpkin soon.  The table below is taken from the xGscore website.  

Green numbers are good, red are bad.  Nottingham Forest has the biggest green number in Expected Points at 11.2;  the next closest are Newcastle and West Ham at 2.7.  There are two basic explanations for green numbers in these tables - either you've been lucky or for some reason your skills are that much better than the others.  That is, Forest may have just been lucky in scoring 3.1 more goals than expected or they are just better at finishing than the average team.  I don't mean to cast aspersions on Forest lineup but I'm leaning more toward the luck explanation than a highly skilled team.  Though highly anecdotal I know, I remember thinking Chris Wood's scoring woes at Newcastle were simply down to a run of bad luck.  Maybe this season is making up for that.  But I fear they may not live happily ever after.

Super Wonk

There was something else in the table that puzzled me no end.  Tottenham have scored 5.5 goals more than expected and allowed 2.5 fewer than expected and yet their expected points are 8 worse than expected.  That doesn't make sense; wouldn't we guess that their point total was much higher than expected?  What's going on here?  This must be due to a third factor - your distribution of goals and expected goals across games.  Maybe Spurs have great positive numbers for expected goals in a lot of matches where it doesn't make a difference but a few days when it goes against them.  Take 12/15/24 when Spurs mauled Southampton 5-0.  The xG for that game was 2.84 - .96.  So they got 2.16 more than expected and conceded .96 less but the gain on expected points was probably negligible.  Compare that to 9/15 when they lost 0-1 to Arsenal and xG was .79 - .88.  They were .79 worse in scoring and just .12 worse in conceding; this was probably expected points of around 1 and they got 0.  So if the luck evens out on expected goals we would say they could get worse but if their luck improves on timing, maybe they'll get better.  Love it when a data dive leaves you with more questions than when you started.  Oh look, we're out of time for any more wonkiness.

Sacre Bleu

A pair of French sides rained on some EPL sides prospects in the Champions League.  On Tuesday Aston Villa stumbled through an 0-1 loss to Monaco.  It's not like the home side were any great shakes, but Villa couldn't break through.  The loss did put their chances of an automatic qualifier in jeopardy but they'll at least get a spot in the playoffs.  Way more shocking was Man City's collapse in Paris.  Up 2-0 on PSG, they eventually lost 4-2.  City are now in 25th place and not even assured of a spot in the playoff round.  Liverpool (a sloppy 2-1 win over Lilles) and Arsenal (easy 3-0 victory over Dinamo Zagreb) had a better time of it.  Liverpool are guaranteed advancement to the knockout phase; Arsenal aren't quite assured of a top eight finish but their massive goal differential probably means they'll get an automatic berth too.

In Europa Cup, Spurs did their Spurs thing and managed to turn a 2-0 lead into close 3-2 final. Man United had a wild one with Rangers, winning in stoppage time on a Fernandes goal seen here.  Both Spurs and United will be playing for an automatic berth to the knockout round but are already assured of at least making the playoff round.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Thomas Tuchel was going to the MLS?

Steve: No, I said he was the new England manager.

Champions League Free-for-all

Matchweek 23 for the EPL but the big action will be the final games in the first round of Champions League and Europa Cup.

There is no 7:30 Saturday contest and we are fine with that.  However, it does mean a crowded 10 am slot.  We'll be watching Newcastle at Southampton because we have to.  This is a no-win fixture for the Magpies; that is, no win would be a minor disaster.  For the neutrals, the easy choice is Bournemouth hosting Nottingham Forest.  This is another serious test for Cinderella as the Cherries are solid favorites here (46% for the win, 25% for a draw).  Also, it's the TV game.  Wolves - Arsenal doesn't sound too good and Ipswich at Liverpool looks like a train wreck.  Brighton - Everton might be okay.  The feature 12:30 match is worthy of the slot - Man City hosting Chelsea.  Except note that it's a feature match for Peacock, not NBC.  Displaced by skiing, auto racing and figure skating?  Ouch. Probably just a money play to boost Peacock subscriptions. 

Sunday has four matches nicely spread out except the last on might run into the Eagles - Rams NFC Championship game.  At 9 am you can do Crystal Palace - Brentford, an unlikely sounding London Derby or Tottenham - Leicester, which may offer the Spurs at chance to regain their balance.  Opta projections suggest you go with Palace - Brentford but USA went with Spurs.  Aston Villa - West Ham is the 11:30 match; we fully expect the Villans to recover from their mid-week Champions League stumble.  The matchweek ends with Fulham - Man United at 2 pm.  Who knows what to think there, though Opta have made the Cottagers a solid favorite (43% win, 26% draw).

The Champions League first round concludes with all 16 matches kicking off at 3 pm on Wednesday.  Permutations are simply too numerous to assess completely.  Liverpool are already advancing to the knockout phase and will probably finish first - they play at PSV.  Arsenal are sitting pretty and only need a draw at Girona to clinch an automatic berth.  Even with a win over Celtic, Aston Villa would still need one of the clubs in reach above them to drop points to get a top eight finish. Assuming I read everything right, if Man City defeat Club Brugge, they squeeze into the top 24 and at least get to the playoffs for a knockout berth.

We'll turn around and do the same thing with the Europa Cup on Thursday at 3 pm.  Man United and Spurs will guarantee themselves advancement to the knockout phase with wins over FCSB and IF Elfsborg respectively.  Draws would leave them vulnerable to results from sides below them in the standings.  I'm sure they would both prefer to avoid the playoffs as that means two more midweek matches in an already crowded schedule.  

I think I caught a break as a board meeting will likely be moved from Wednesday at 2 pm to the following week.  Also, appointments Thursday morning but the afternoon looks clear. Getting the hang of this.

Scary Minnows

The 3rd round of the FA Cup is notorious for lower division teams (aka minnows) knocking off teams from the first and second tiers.  This year not so much, but there were still some scary moments.  Also, some interesting results from Matchweek 21 fixtures.

Almost Choking on the Bones

An own goal in extra time saved Spurs' butts
Reuters/Jason Cairnduff 

The biggest mismatch of the 3rd round was Tamworth (National League, ie 5th tier) versus Tottenham, a spread of 96 places across English football.  If all you saw was the final score - 3-0 favor Spurs - you might think all went as planned there.  Not exactly.  Tamworth are as small a fish in the pond as you can get but Spurs could barely swallow this minnow.  Though Tottenham fairly well dominated play, they could not score and normal time expired with the score 0-0.  It took another 10 minutes of extra time before Spurs finally got on the board and even that was an own goal.  Two more followed in the second half of extra time, making the final look all cushy but this was a hard ride for Tottenham.  Note also that in years past, a 0-0 result at 90 minutes would have resulted in a big pay day for Tamworth as there would have been a replay a few weeks later as opposed to continuing to extra time.  The replay would have been at the massive Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Tamworth would have shared in the gate receipts.  

Newcastle also had a little trouble with their minnow - League Two's Bromley.  The Magpies fell behind early and were only 1-1 at halftime.  Second half goals from Gordon and Osula made the viewing comfortable enough.  

FA Cup 3rd Round By the Numbers

I count 11 upsets out of the 32 matches.  Some barely qualify as upsets - see Blackburn (7th in Championship) over Middlesborough (5th in Championship) and there were three other cases of Championship sides beating teams higher than them in the table.  The two biggest in terms of "ranking difference" were Brentford (11th in EPL) losing to Plymouth (last in the Championship) and Doncaster (League Two) beating Hull City (Championship) - both matches were a spread of 33 places.  Here's the winning goal from Plymouth's upset.

Results by division are as follows:

EPL 17-3

Championship 9-15

League One 5-7

League Two 1-5

National League 0-2

Two of the three EPL losses were to other EPL sides - West Ham to Aston Villa and Arsenal to Man United. The latter was a wild one that United won on penalties.  Brentford was the only EPL side to lose to a lower division club (Plymouth).

The only real minnow left is Doncaster.  League One sides still in the competition are Birmingham, Exeter, Leyton Orient, Wigan and Wycombe; bigger than minnows but still in danger.  Should we call them sunfish?

Ball Don't Lie

 

That Arsenal - Man United FA Cup tie was a wild one.  United had gone down a man at 61 minutes and ceded the equalizer two minutes later.  A few minutes later,  Maguire "fouled" Havertz in the box.  Watching live, Dennis was sure that if there had been VAR, the penalty would have been overturned and Havertz shown the yellow for diving.  I didn't see it live but the replay here suggests he was probably right.  Odegaard missed the PK and somewhere Rasheed Wallace was smiling.  Also, funny how everybody says plays like this are why VAR is needed.  Bookmark those quotes for later.

You May Ask Yourself, How Did We Get Here?  (apologies to The Talking Heads)

Anthony Gordon - the model of attacking intent

Newcastle spent most of December in 12th place.  After Wednesday's 3-0 win over Wolves, the Magpies are now 4th in the table.  That was their sixth straight league win, a stretch in which they've outscored the opposition 18-1.  This is my beautiful team. So many things are going right.  Isak got two more goals against Wolves, has scored in eight straight, and is the third leading scorer behind only Salah and Haaland. We make his second goal this week's YouTubeableMoment; the pass from Guimaraes was perfect.  Anthony Gordon has a goal or an assist in each of those six wins.  Barnes and Murphy can create offense too.  The midfield trio of Guimaraes, Joelinton and Tonali are equally skilled at starting attacks and destroying other teams' attacks.   Hall and Livramento have the fullback spots covered.  Fabian Schar was out sick Wednesday but with Sven Botman back from injury, we were okay. Dan Burn is still not the fastest out there but at center back with the others around him, he's doing fine too.

Trying to remain clear-eyed about this resurgence.  Sure, the final was 3-0 but with some more clinical finishing by Wolves, this could have been a close match.  We've gone through patches where the finishing was awful so who knows if that will return.  We've been on the lucky side with injuries so far this year and that might not continue.  I'm also thinking that the Financial Fair Play rules might work to our benefit right now.  Contending for a Champions League berth, they might be tempted to overspend in the transfer market; they simply don't have that much to work with under the profit and sustainability regulations.

What Amad Ending

Amad to teammates: Guys, this is how you do it

Through 81 minutes, Man United trailed cellar dweller Southampton 0-1 and the Old Trafford crowd was more than restless.  Then, Amad Diallo decided enough is enough.  In the next 13 minutes he rescued the day for the Red Devils with a hat trick that doubled his goal output for the year.  Sure, the last one was a pure gift from Southampton defender Harwood-Bellis but the other two were legit, especially the game winner seen here; note the nice chip from Erickson to send him on goal.  With the bottom part of the mid-table so tight, the turnaround took United from 15th to 12th.  But mostly, it saved them from embarrassment.  Amad does appear to be the antidote to Antony and some of the other disappointments on the United squad.  

Dropped Points

There were some dropped points at the top of the table.  Liverpool could only manage a 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest.  This was not the thriller we had hoped for - both Dennis and I will admit to napping during portions of the match.  Chelsea dropped two points as well, held to a 2-2 draw by Bournemouth and needing a 95th minute stoppage time goal to get even that.  Man City also dropped two points but in a different way; they coughed up a 2-0 lead to Brentford, surrendering goals at 82 and 92 minutes.   

Dropped points aside, of the top 10 only Fulham lost (2-3 to West Ham).  Arsenal got a 2-1 win over Spurs in what looked like a tepid North London derby.  I only saw the last 25 minutes but it didn't seem all that intense.  Villa got a serviceable 1-0 win over Everton in David Moyes' second debut as manager for the Toffees.  And Brighton took their time but eventually worked out a 2-0 win over Ipswich.

Life at the bottom of the table was tough, as all five - Everton, Wolves, Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton - lost.  The biggest gap in the table is now the seven points between 15th place Crystal Palace and 16th Everton.  

A Man For All Excuses

You may recall Mikel Arteta's explosion when Newcastle beat the Gunners on a goal in which "everybody in the stadium knew the ball had gone out" except when they saw photographic evidence after the match showing it was still in (details in this old BFS post).  Mikel was at it again this week, not with a rant but a novel explanation as to why Arsenal fell 0-2 to the Magpies at the Emirates last week in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final.  The problem Arteta said was the ball.  I am not making this up.   Money quote:

'No, it's just different. It's very different to the Premier League ball and you have to adapt to that. It flies different... when you touch it, the grip is very different as well so you have to adapt to that.'

Arteta is appropriately being trolled on the internet for this.

Talkin' Union

 The wind chill is 13 degrees and there's a thin coating of snow on the ground, which means the MLS season is just around the corner.  Opening day is February 22nd at Orlando.

Can't say the news is encouraging.  First, the U got hit with a registration ban because they failed to pay a youth club a percentage of the transfer fee when they obtained Jose Riasco in March 2022.  The full story is here.  Note the amount of the missed payment is $700.  Given that the payment has been made, the consensus is that the ban will be lifted quickly.  However, this is the type of administrative screw-up that Union are famous for, like always having visa problems with foreign signings.  Doesn't instill the greatest of confidence in the front office.

Less encouraging is the state of the roster.  See this analysis from The Inquirer's Jonathan Tannenwald.  There's really not been much activity for a club that finished 12th out of 15 in the Eastern Conference.  Not clear to me why we would expect any kind of meaningful improvement in the standings without some important additions.  Fortunately, it does sound like they haven't been ruled out.

Out of the Mouths of Babes

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this Instagram clip in which one of the Tottenham mascots (the kids who accompany the players on the pitch for the introductions) makes a brutally honest observation.  This must have been just before Spurs squared off against Liverpool in last week's EFL Cup semi-final.  

Champions League Is Back

In addition to Matchweek 22, we get the seventh round of first round play in the European competitions, which means you'll have something to do as mid-week temperatures plummet into the teens single digits (without taking into account windchill).  

The EPL schedule is nicely spread out over three days so we won't have the situation we had on Wednesday when Newcastle, Aston Villa and Spurs were all on at the same time.  Newcastle have the early Saturday match so we'll be up at 7:30 to see them face Bournemouth; it is on USA so you could cheat a little and get up at maybe 8 instead.  The Magpies are in form, at home and heavily favored; what could go wrong?

Three choices at 10 am.  USA has West Ham versus Crystal Palace and this looks to be the best choice for a competitive match.  Brentford - Liverpool and Leicester - Fulham don't sound as exciting.  We're pumped about the feature 12:30 match on NBC as Aston Villa travel to London to face Arsenal.  Opta has the Gunners has huge favorites (61% win, 21% draw) but we see a closer match than that; the Villans are rarely blown out and usually give teams like this a hard time.

Sunday at 9 am is a bit crowded.  The TV game is Everton - Spurs but you could do Man United - Brighton or Nottingham Forest - Southampton on Peacock.  I can come up with reasons to watch each. The first two could be more competitive than you think but it's also fun to watch Nottingham Forest continue their Cinderella run in the top four.  The 11:30 match, on USA, looks like a car crash, with Ipswich hosting Man City.  The week concludes with Chelsea - Wolves at 3 pm on Monday.

The Champions League gets to the business end of the first round with the seventh of eight first round matches.  Teams will be looking to seal up places for automatic advancement to the knockout stage (top 8) or at least the playoffs to get to the knockout stage (9th through 24th).  Tuesday we can watch Monaco - Aston Villa at 12:45, then Liverpool - LOSC at 3 pm.  Wednesday we'll have to choose been Arsenal - Dinamo Zagreb or PSG - Man City, both at 3 pm.  We're going with the latter as both are fighting for a place in the top 24, with PSG currently on the outside looking at 25th and MCI barely in at 22.

Europa League is in a similar situation.  Most of their matches are Thursday.  Tottenham face Hoffenheim on the road at 12:45 while Man United host Rangers at 3 pm.  Both are likely to at least advance to the playoff rounds but wins for each could put them in good shape for automatic advancement to the knockout phase.

Just checked the forecast again.  Wind chills below zero on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Just stay inside and watch Champions League.

Traveblogue

The second Five Guys from the USA tour is in the books.  Last time - chronicled here, here and here - we spread out three games over 10 days and several towns.  This time was much more concentrated, with three games in five days, all spent in London.  Also, we were just Four Guys from the USA, as Don P bowed out in favor guarding his health for a trip to St. Johns.  

Arrival

The lineup - Michael, Charlie, Graham and Steve

We arrived Thursday morning and successfully navigated the various components of London's intricate train system to reach our Airbnb in the Camden section of the city.  This was a spacious old house with plenty of bedrooms and bathrooms.  This should have meant no controversy about room assignments like we had last time and yet somehow, Charlie ended up with a bedroom with no access to a bathroom on the same floor.  En suite is cool if its yours but not so much if you've got one of the other bedrooms.

With guidance, we were
perfect gentlemen

Our backyard was esssentially Regents Park, just a few blocks away.  The Tube stop was a five minute walk away and there were plenty of pubs.  The house came with its own three-legged fox.  Clever fellow - we all saw him at various times but we never could get a good picture. Possibly concerned that we wouldn't behave ourselves, the host left a big hint on the coffee table - see picture right.

Do, do, do, lookin' out our back door

The house wasn't ready when we got there so we dropped our luggage and headed off to The Sheephaven, a pub we saw on our way in.  Turns out it wasn't just any pub.  This was Celtic territory and wouldn't you know it, they were playing Rangers that day at 3 pm.  The Old Firm is one of the most enduring derbies in football as explained here.  Fortunately we got there early enough to get a table and enjoyed some pints and sandwiches.  We were quite jet-lagged at that point and there is a possibility that one or all of us nodded off at various times.

Yankees In London

Salon in Camden Town - No chance they can duplicate that hair

Friday was our touristy day with the main stop being the Churchill War Rooms, a sobering look at how the British government managed to operate during the WWII bombing by living underground.  The first of many fish and chips orders was consumed on the way back to the house.  We also discovered that the English are working on the duplicating Charlie's most valuable hair - see picture left.

Friday evening we reached our full complement as Simon and Annie arrived from Norwich.  Regular readers of the blog will remember Simon from previous posts, especially our last trip to London. Though he was a visitor here like us, Simon again proved the most awesomest host.  He outdid himself Friday night, shepherding us through the Underground to a fine French restaurant with live music and then picking up the tab.

 

Getting Serious

The full crew before kickoff

And finally it was time for football.  With Simon again at the helm, we made our way to Seven Sisters station and then did the mile walk up to the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (guess no one has bid high enough for naming rights yet?).  We walked through the gift shop, which is bigger than some NBA arenas and packed to rafters with Spurs stuff.  Which meant no purchases for me.  We were then off for food and drinks in the hospitality suite, which is really the plush space they use as the lockerroom when the NFL is in town.  Nice enough but agree with Annie that the food was a bit chi-chi; "where are the proper sausage rolls?" she asked.

Though not an outcast per se, I was in the unenviable position of being a Newcastle fan in the company of 60,000 Spurs fans.  Sure, there were about 5,000 from the Toon Army down to our right but they were in their designated space.  A quick goal from Solanke left me with a sinking feeling that this might be a tough day.  The Magpies responded well, first with a goal from Gordon (discussed below in the refereeing section) and then another from Isak (seen here).  I allowed myself a surreptitous fist pump for the first but did not react to the second.   

Newcastle players thank there supporters

Ange made some adjustments and Spurs made this a tense contest the rest of the way.  We had a great view of Maddison's miss from the left side that barely failed to curl in.  Spurs did have the better chances in the second half but Newcastle were pretty well-organized even under the pressure.  Though the xG disagrees (2.37 - 1.02 favor the Magpies), the match felt much closer than that and a draw would have been a fair result.

Hopefully, I was a graceful "winner" back in the hospitality suite for post game libations and food.  I offered to get Michael a beer and when I came back, he had eaten my sandwich.  Insisting it was an accident, he noted that in any case, he was willing to call it even.  

Cottagers All

Craven Cottage in classic London mist

We woke Sunday morning to a thin coating of snow that posed no threat to the 2 pm match at Fulham. Though we had been managing well on the Tube, the continued rain convinced us to take an Uber to Craven Cottage; this meant passing up a scenic walk from the station to the stadium along the Thames.  Though no where near the size and architectural wonder of Spurs Stadium, the Cottage has its own charm.  We had lunch and a beer in the new hospitality suite, looking out on the Boathouse Row of the Thames.

Late action at Craven Cottage

Fulham came out full of fire but couldn't find a goal much to the delight of the Ipswich supporters, who were probably louder than the home crowd.  The Tractor Boys picked off a scruffy goal late in the first half, seen here.  Second half was more of the same - Fulham mostly dominant but simply unable to get the ball in the net.  Finally, they got their break on penalty that Raul Jiminez neatly converted to level things.  In a classic let-down after a big goal, Fulham then conceded a PK of their own and Ipswich were back on top a mere two minutes later.  But in a trend that could spell relegation for Ipswich, they again conceded a goal in stoppage time on yet another PK that Jiminez did not miss.  This was the fourth time this season the Tractor Boys have conceded late, leading to six dropped points.  The xG was interesting - 2.29 to 1.46 favor Fulham; taking out the PKs it would be about .69 -66.  A riveting, if not high quality contest.  

We did get our walk along the Thames but it wasn't quite as scenic as we headed home in the early darkness of a London January.

Moving Down the English Football League Food Chain

Bare patches in the pitch - we're not in the EPL anymore

One more stop on the trip - to Loftus Road for Queen's Park Rangers vs Luton Town.  Accomodations weren't as grand as either Tottenham or Fulham.  Anyone over 5'3" (i.e. everyone in our group) would find the seating, shall we say, cramped.  That is not to say, however, that the atmosphere was any less special.  Not to take anything away from home Spurs or Fulham supporters, I thought the QPR fans were the most vocal and supportive of any we saw.  The match was a hard-fought 2-1 win for QPR.

This Week In Refereeing - Handling Part LXIII

Gonna be a little brutal here about the supposed controversial no handling call on Joelinton in the build-up to the Newcastle equalizer.  You can see the play here.  There are two situations in which this could be a handling infraction.  First, you could argue it was deliberate handling by Joelinton and the play should stop right there; that would be an incredibly harsh interpretation of the rule.  His arms weren't pinned to his side (which is hardly a natural position anyway) but neither was this an attempt to make himself bigger.  In short, they were in a natural position for someone moving on the soccer pitch.  The only other way this could be an infraction was if Joelinton himself was the goal scorer.  In fact, he didn't even get the assist on the play.

The lack of knowledge on this is staggering.  It is true that not that long ago, an accidental touch would have been called handling if it led to a goal scoring opportunity; however, that part was dropped in the IFAB Laws of the Game 2021/22 and now the accidental handball applies only to the goal scorer.  Casual fans may be excused here but coaches, players and pundits should know better.  Further, to those complaining that the rules should be altered to ensure goals like that are chalked off - WE TRIED IT YOUR WAY and enough people hated it that they changed it to the current language.  

More controversy on Sunday at Craven Cottage in the 27th minute when Fulham's Harry Wilson was pulled down by Ipswich's Leif Davis.  I couldn't find a good video of the play but ESPN explains it pretty well here.  Referee Bond, Darren Bond, showed Davis a yellow.  Real time, DOGSO crossed my mind but thought there may have been a covering defender.  The pictures are inconclusive, which is presumably what the VAR decided as well.  There is a second picture in the ESPN article that shows an Ipswich player in the vicinity quickly after the foul.  On the other hand, if the call on the pitch had been red, hard to think that would have been overruled either.

Rain Gray Town (apologies to The Byrds)

London showed us about everything in its weather repertoire but saved the worst for times when it didn't matter.  Other than a few walks to dinner in drizzle, we were fine.  The snow fell in the wee hours of the morning, the wind-driven rains came when we were under covered stands at Craven Cottage, and the coldest temps came when we were packed into the tiny stands at Loftus Road.  I can report that neither Michael nor I donned our Elmer Fudd hats in London - mostly because it was cold enough that we needed the wool caps.  

"Congestion" Fee

A contentious point from the last trip was a ticket issued in Michael's name for driving in London during a peak period without a permit.  Michael gracefully paid it and never asked for reimbursement from the rest of us, a fact which he never fails to point out to us.  He got his revenge this week, as we all paid a congestion fee with Michael constantly hacking as he recovered from a heavy cold.

Only Three Returned

Graham sends his regards from Wales

The plane touched down in Philly on Tuesday afternoon carrying only me, Michael and Charlie. Don't worry about Graham though; he extended his trip to explore family roots in Wales and Ireland.  I believe his schedule called for a stop in Wrexham.

Carabao Cup Footnote

I arrived home at about 2:30 pm on Tuesday and by 3 pm was watching the Arsenal - Newcastle Caraboa Cup semi-final - with Laura's permission I might add.  The Magpies will take a 2-0 back to Saint James' Park for the second leg in four weeks.  Michael was almost as happy with Spurs' 1-0 first leg result against Liverpool; slightly more work to do there as the second leg will be at Anfield.

FA Cup Weekend

This weekend is the 3rd round of the FA Cup, which means the EPL and Championship division sides enter the competition.  If you want a refresher on the FA Cup, check out this old BFS post.  

A few matches are already in the books and there are a couple on Friday (see Aston Villa vs West Ham at 3 pm).  Saturday has a full schedule running from 7 am to 1 pm and there's a bunch more on Sunday.  The round concludes on Monday at 2:45 pm with Millwall vs Dag & Red. [Actually with three matches on Tuesday - who's editing this thing?] 

Newcastle have Bromley (League Two) at home on Sunday at 10 am.  Look for a heavily rotated line up for that one.  The quaint practice of not seeding teams means we can have Arsenal - Man United in the third round (that's also 10 am on Sunday).  Meanwhile, Tottenham get Tamworth FC from the fifth tier.  Ah yes, all part of the charm.

[Also, no mention of Matchweek 21 covering Tuesday - Thursday?  We will blame jet lag.]

  

By the Time I Get to London

You'll still be sleeping...

Though the holiday fixtures represent less than 10% of the year's matches, we still like to grade each team's performance over the festive period.  The chart below provides the basic data - expected points (based on Opta projections), actual points, the difference between actual and expected and the percentage of expected points collected.  The teams are ranked by the percentage of expected points achieved.

Observations and rankings below.

Newcastle - 

Tonali, Guimaraes and Joelinton-
a daunting Geordie midfield combination
Photo by George Wood/Getty Images

This couldn't have gone better.  They won all three contests by an aggregate score of 9-0.  Beating Ipswich wasn't a surprise and they did get a gift when Duran was sent off in the win over Villa.  Most surprising was the ease with which they dispatched Man United at Old Trafford.  Except for the first 15 minutes of the second half, Newcastle looked the far better side and the 2-0 final feels right.  With the turnaround, they have shot up to 5th in the table.

Aston Villa - 

As Dennis put it, with matches against Man City, Newcastle and Brighton, four points was just fine, almost exactly as projected by Opta.  The surprise win over City was balanced by the unfortunate call on Duran that pretty much ruined the Newcastle match.  The 2-2 draw with Brighton seemed like the new Villa - overall a good squad subject to unfortunate lapses.  After falling behind they took a 2-1 lead and seemed poised to put the game away.  This was a winnable match yet somehow by the end they were clinging to the draw.

Tottenham - 

Well, Liverpool was never going to be easy but just one point out of Nottingham Forest (1-0 loss) and Wolves (2-2 draw after surrendering 87th minute goal) had to be disappointing.  To be fair, they are dealing with a Newcastlesque level of injuries and some suspensions, as only Brentford have more players (11) on the unavailable list than Spurs (9).  I always thought of Fraser Forster as a capable back up but he's been making some strange choices that have cost Spurs some goals.  



Manchester United - no Santas for U

Home against Bournemouth and Newcastle and away to Wolves - should have been three to five points (Opta projected 4.7).  Nope, shut out by all three in an aggregate 0-7 scoreline.  The players are taking heat but so is "new" manager Amirom as seen here.

Wolves - 

I love this game - Wolves new manager Pereira starts with 3 wins
Photo by Naomi Baker/Getty Images

What a great new manager bounce Wolves have gotten from Vitor Pereira.  Okay, maybe beating
Leicester in his debut wasn't all that but a 2-0 clean sheet against Man United followed by a 2-2 draw on a late goal against Spurs are.  He's 2-1-0 out of the chute and are Wolves are out the relegation zone for the new year.

The Rest

Liverpool - Granted they did go into holidays with the highest expected total given their schedule but they did win all.  Part of winning championships is minimizing stumbles along the way.

Nottingham Forest - Four points would have been a decent haul for them but they took all three, finishing with a 2-0 win over Everton.  Remarkably, Forest now sit 3rd in the table.

Arsenal - Same as Liverpool.  Swept through Crystal Palace, Ipswich and Brentford.  Easy set of fixtures but you can only beat who you play.

Ipswich - The Tractor Boys went in with the lowest expected points - just 1.987 - of any team.  And they got shut out in the first two matches.  Then they pulled off perhaps the biggest upset of the season - a 2-0 win over Chelsea.  Possession (75-25) and shots (20-9) suggest they got pushed all over the place and were perhaps a bit lucky, though a draw wouldn't have been ridiculous given xG (1.59-1.78 favor Chelsea) and shots on target (6-5 favor Forest).  They are still in the relegation zone but are just one behind Wolves and two behind Everton.

Bournemouth - Probably really should be 3.5 Santas but we don't cut him in half.  They got a big win over Man United, then draws of varying degrees of satisfaction against Crystal Palace and Fulham.  So they went unbeaten over the busy period.




Crystal Palace - Almost exactly as expected.  Lose to Arsenal, draw with Bournemouth, beat Southampton.  They are so close to breaking free of the gravity of the relegation zone but haven't quite done it yet.

West Ham - Basically the same as Palace with a win (Southampton), draw (Brighton) and a loss (Liverpool), exactly as you would have expected.  We are almost ready to move them out the relegation threatened category.

Fulham - We could make a case for four Santas here.  After all, they didn't lose a match.  The win over Chelsea was certainly an upset.  The draw against Bournemouth was likely a mild disappointment.  But the home draw against Southampton is what puts them in the three Santa category for us.

Everton - The Toffees only managed two draws but given their schedule they weren't expecting much to begin with.  After draws with Chelsea and Man City, the 0-2 loss at home to Nottingham Forest had to be a bit of a disappointment.

Brighton - We could quibble and say it was a one Santa holiday except they didn't lose a match.  They got three points with successive draws to West Ham, Brentford and Aston Villa, which doesn't sound all that bad.  The problem is they were slight favorites at West Ham and heavy favorites against Brentford at home.  You can't live in this league by ties alone.


Chelsea - The Blues had the second highest expectations heading into the holiday and managed just one lousy point - a 0-0 draw with Everton.  They followed that with losses to Fulham (ouch) and Ipswich (really ouch).

Man City - They got four points but given the schedule, it should have been more.  They were upset by Aston Villa, drew with Everton before rescuing some dignity with a 2-0 win over Leicester.  This is not your father's Man City.

Leicester - The Foxes went in with exceedingly low expectations that were not met, getting no points in the holiday fixtures. To be fair, their schedule included Liverpool and Man City but this is factored into the expectations.  They have fallen to 19th in the table and are clearly in a relegation fight.

Southampton - Basically the same as Leicester, though they did manage to grab a point in 0-0 draw with Fulham.  This was followed by losses to West Ham and Crystal Palace, not exactly your high-powered sides. They are now eight points adrift of even 19th place, and 10 points from safety.  It don't look good as they say.

Brentford - A tough set of fixtures (Forest, Brighton and Arsenal) so maybe this is bit harsh.  But just one point so now they're down to 12th in the table.

London Calling (apologies to The Clash)

I posted this before our 9:15 pm departure to London. We arrive at Heathrow 9:20 am Thursday.  We'll head to our AirBnB, get settled, make sure Michael gets the best bedroom, then maybe head out for walk in Regents Park.  Friday is also footballless but we will tour around the city with a planned visit to the Churchill War Rooms.

Then we get serious.  Spurs Newcastle is 12:30 pm Saturday.  Since we have hospitality tickets, I can't wear any of my Newcastle gear.  Tricky match.  Recent form says Magpies have the advantage but both teams have been consistently inconsistent so we could see just about anything.  The rest of the day will likely find us taking in the rest of Saturday's action at a pub or pubs.  The 3 pm choices (all times are GMT) are Bournemouth - Everton, Aston Villa - Leicester, Chelsea - Crystal Palace, Southampton - Brentford and Man City - West Ham.  I would like to see Aston Villa find some form against a struggling Leicester side but since it's London, my guess is we'll watch the Chelsea - Palace derby.  The 5:30 match is Brighton - Arsenal.

Sunday we head south from our AirBnB to the venerable Craven Cottage to see Fulham take on Ipswich at 2 pm.  Again, with hospitality tickets, we cannot wear Ipswich gear.  Though some of us might prefer to see the Tractor Boys win, I don't think any us have a scarf or any similar type of swag.  Afterwards, we'll try to find a good pub to see Liverpool - Man United.  I rate our chances high.

Monday's EPL game is Wolves - Nottingham Forest, two of the leagues hotter sides.  Since this is a London only trip, we're passing on that one but instead heading to another hallowed London venue - Loftus Road.  We'll see Queen's Park Rangers host Luton Town.  I don't know the restrictions on Luton Town gear for this one but I'm sure we'll survive. 

Weather looks a bit dodgy, especially Sunday and Monday.  High 30s to low 40s with pretty much a constant chance of rain or snow showers.  As shown below, we are ready.  If you watch, look for the guys with the Elmer Fudd type hats.

You will know us by our hats

Probably won't do posts while we're there but I said that last time and managed to put together something on my phone so who knows.  We're back Tuesday.