High and Dry

A weekend with virtually non-stop rain, nothing to do but watch soccer.  And yet, with all the precipitation, I came home from Subaru Park Saturday night relatively dry and neither of the Phillies games were postponed.  

Between EPL, MLS, Caraboa Cup and US Open Cup, we are a bit overwhelmed.  Let's see what we remembered.

Eight Is Enough

Five of these guys scored (IMAGO/Focus Images/Andy Sumner)

More than enough.  Newcastle had a easy time at Sheffield United Sunday, running roughshod over the Blades 8-0.  Not just eight goals but eight goals from eight different scorers - Longstaff, Burn, Botman, Wilson, Gordon, Almiron, Guimaraes, and Isak.  That helped the goal differential, which is now 4th best in the league despite the Magpies mediocre record of 3-0-3.  Two consecutive wins have them sitting 8th in the table.

They Can't Beat You With One Hand Tied Behind Their Back

I eschewed what turned out to be a great North London Derby (see below) in favor of seeing how Aston Villa would handle Chelsea.  I expected Villa would be a challenge for the Blues and I was correct.  They were 0-0 through 57 minutes with Chelsea having the  advantage on possession but otherwise basically even.  Then Gusto went in on Digne with, well, too much gusto (sometimes you have to go with the obvious) and got a straight red.  After the sending off, there was maybe a slight momentum shift to Aston Villa but the game really felt like it could go either way.  A laser accurate shot from Watkins gave Villa 1-0 lead at 73 minutes.  Again, the contest felt balanced and 1-1 still seemed like a real possibility.  But the equalizer was never forthcoming and Villa snuck out of London with all three points.  You can't say the points were undeserved but you also can't help but wonder what is up with Chelsea.  

London Derbies

As I said, watching Villa meant I missed the Arsenal - Tottenham contest.  By all accounts, this was a cracker of a match, with Spurs rallying twice to take away a 2-2 draw.  Son accounted for both Tottenham tallies.  

The other London derby  - Crystal Palace vs Fulham - was pretty good too.  They played to a 0-0 draw that featured 25 fouls and 5 yellows.  Yeah, pretty snarly.

Age Is Just A Number

Jonny Evans: Doesn't look a day over 34
AMA Getty Images

Jonny Evans made his first start for Man United in eight years on Saturday against Burnley.  He looked to have made it a special occasion with a solid header goal.  Alas, it was chalked off for offside.  He did however get an assist the goal by Fernandes, a stunning volley that is a candidate for the goal of the year and an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Evans added eight clearances and an interception for a solid player rating of 7.85; he also was named as Player of the Match.  Not a bad day for the 35 year-old.

Fun With Statistics

Everton grabbed their first win at Brentford in 71 years.  Sounds like an awesome talking point, right?  Well, until you unpack it.  They've only faced each other 23 times, just once between 1954 and 2021.  So the winless streak included a draw on 8/27/22, and losses on 11/28/21, 9/21/10 and 2/24/54.  So the winless road streak before Saturday's 3-1 win was just four.  Full record between the two clubs is here.

Red Card Update

Three more teams had a player sent off this weekend and the recipients went 1-1-1.  We already mentioned Chelsea.  Man City had a 2-0 lead over Nottingham Forest when Rodri was sent off early in the second half.  Nothing changed in the ensuing 45 minutes.  Wolves played about 50 minutes down a man and still got a 1-1 draw with Luton Town.  For the season, red carded teams are 5-3-6.

Failed Quads and Triples

Not talking skating but the consequences of various cup results.  Loss to Houston in US Open Cup ended Miami's admittedly long odds for a triple (Leagues Cup, US Open Cup, and MLS Cup).  Without Messi and Alba, they fell 2-1.  As discussed below, their MLS Cup chances are still in play.

Sometimes one is enough; Isak gets game winner vs Man City

With a 1-0 surprise win Newcastle ended Man City's quad hopes (League Cup, FA Cup, Champions League and EPL).  City played a heavily rotated line up but so did Newcastle.  To wit, the Magpies back line was Livramento, Lascelles, Dummett and Targett.  First half was all City possession but no serious threats.  Second half subs of Gordon and Bruno for the kids Miley and Hall worked wonders.  Isak scored at 53 minutes.  City never looked all that interested in getting a goal and that was the final.

What If They Had a Match and No One Shot on Goal?

You'd have Saturday night's snooze fest at Subaru Park.  The teams combined for six shots, none on target.  The stats stay Union passing accuracy was 73% but I guess all the balls rolled out by Blake to the feet of Wagner bring up the average.  Conditions were terrible.  Not much rain except for a few minutes of downpour and maybe some showers.  The wind however was a factor, blowing towards the river.  LAFC had a couple of scary chances but mostly looked content to contain the Union.  The home side did have a nice goal called back for offside.  One point against LAFC, even at home doesn't sound terrible but the play just wasn't very good.

Textbook stuff from Quinn Sullivan; Photo Phila Union

Wednesday there was a little more life the result was still a draw, 1-1 against FC Dallas.  First half was energetic and the U had their chances.  Sullivan did convert a great pass from Wagner to score the opener.  As seen here, the play was a good outlet from Blake, nice carry and cross from Wagner and a clinical first touch and finish from Sullivan, his second in three games.  They couldn't hold the lead though as a failed clearance allowed Velasco to take a shot from the top of the box.  Sometimes you have to give the other guy credit.  The second half was no where near as excited, at least for the home side.  Dallas did grab what looked like a late game-winner but fortunately it was called by for a handball by the scorer.

We got a break with Orlando's draw against Miami  and the Columbus draw with FC Dallas.  The two draws lift the U into third place.  But, don't look behind you because the next (last) four games are against the four teams behind us in the standings.  Frankly, they could finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th.  How is possible that after 30 matches, this team is still largely an unknown quantity.

Playoff Math - Miami's Chances

DC fell to Red Bulls and now aren't the target.  NYCFC moved into 9th with a 3-0 win over Toronto.  Miami, without Messi and Alba, grabbed an unexpected point at Orlando with a 1-1 draw.  NYCFC faces basically the same math that DC United did.  They have 37 with 3 to go while Miami have 32 with 5 to go.  In other words, strangely enough, despite being five points behind, Miami contol their destiny.  And here's a fun wrinkle: Miami host NYCFC Saturday night in a classic six pointer.  Alas, the Cupertino Overlords did not deign to put that one on free Apple so it's behind the paywall.  

Choices Again

The schedule makers are not helping here - there are six matches at 10 am on Saturday.  And they're not all that great.  We'll be doing Newcastle Burnley on Peacock (on replay because I'm reffing until noon).  The TV game is Man United - Crystal Palace.  Wait, we just saw them.  The two played an uninteresing 3-0 mid-week Carabao Cup match.  Opta suggests that Everton - Luton Town may be the most competitive choice.  Or you can go with Wolves - Man City, Bournemouth - Arsenal or West Ham - Sheffield United.

At least the Saturday early and late games look good.  At 7:30 we have Aston Villa - Brighton, which Opta has at 38/29/33; a little surprised that they give Villa the slight edge.  After the 10 am match of your choice, the feature 12:30 fixture (on USA not NBC this week) is Spurs and Liverpool.  That should be fun.  

Only one on Sunday, Nottingham Forest vs Brentford at 9 am on USA.  Then on Monday we have a London derby featuring Chelsea - Fulham at 3 pm on USA.  The Blues have fallen in Opta's assessement as they have that one at 30/30/40.  Yes, that means Chelsea are favored but only given a 40% chance of beating the Cottagers.  Ouch.  Oh, and there's a Tuesday match, Luton Town - Burnley at 2:30 on Peacock, the rescheduled home opener for which the EPL did not think Luton Town's venue, Kenilworth Road, was ready for Prime Time.

Ooh boy, also a full mid-week of Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League.  Lots to choose from.  We note Newcastle host PSG on Wednesday at 3 pm.  Oh to be Tyneside now that Champions League is here.

And MLS action too.  The Union are at Columbus but not on "free" Apple.  They also have a mid-week game hosting Atlanta on Wednesday.  

What a great time to be a soccer fan.  Football is life!

This Isn't Supposed To Be the NBA

You could have saved time by tuning in for just the last "quarter," or even the last five minutes, of several matches this weekend.  Frankly, you could have saved even more time by not tuning in at all for some of them (looking at you Bournemouth - Chelsea).

Results Not Performance

No goals from the run of play, just a lone PK and yet Newcastle got three points from a 1-0 win over Brentford and a point in the Champions League opener from a 0-0 draw at AC Milan.  Nothing to complain about here, right?  I mean, Brentford aren't a bad side and many teams would be happy to walk away with a draw at San Siro.

Well, let's start with Brentford.  The Magpies managed just two shots on target, one of those was Wilson's successful PK.  Howe used Tonali's injury to try a reshuffled lineup but it didn't result in improved attacking play.  There was a suggestion that the Magpies were already thinking about Tuesday's Champions League opener in Milan.  Whatever, the team still looked directionless.  While, it is true that Brentford really only threatened once and generally Newcastle controlled play, this kind of performance won't cut it in the long run.  

Tuesday in Milan was even worse.  The Magpies were lively enough and could move the ball okay but they generated just six shots, one on target.  Meanwhile, AC Milan were taking 25, getting nine on target.  Expected goals were 2.08-.19.  There were several flurries that required multiple saves, including clearances off the line by non-keeper personnel.  Take the point and get the hell out of there as quickly as possible.

They need to gel soon or we may be looking at a season wandering around mid-table.  I know, I know.  Three years ago that would have sounded awesome.  But as Inspector Clouseau would say, not anymure.

Nah, I'll Just Watch the Last Quarter

So, Doku could be the new goal scorer
that Man City so desperately needs

Soccer is not supposed to reward that behavior but this weekend it did.   Let's see.  Man  City were only 1-1 through 75 minutes against West Ham but grabbed two more in the closing minutes for a 3-1 win.  Arsenal didn't get their goal against Everton until the 69th minute; that 1-0 result keeps the Toffees winless and their fans restless.  Liverpool were down 0-1 to Wolves through 84 minutes yet managed a 3-1 win.  Villa were down 0-1 to Crystal Palace through 86 minutes but walked away with a 3-1 win; that match included two stoppage time goals and this week's YouTubeableMoment, the 87th minute equalizer of the highest quality from Jhon Duran.

For late game heroics though we go with Spurs.  They were down 0-1 at home to Sheffield United well into stoppage time.  They were peppering the United keeper without any luck until Richarlison snuck a header in at 90+8.  Not content with the draw, Kulusevski put another in at 90+10.  And they played for another five minutes after that.  You can check out the highlights here (should open to about 8:00 of the clip).  Must have been a contentious day - 27 fouls and 11 yellow cards.  But I can't say for sure as I only tuned in for stoppage time...

Man United Flunk Early Test

Which means of course that Brighton must have passed with flying colors.  The Seagulls appear not to have been troubled much, easily beating back Man United at Old Trafford no less.  Expected goals suggest a slightly tighter contest but at 1.94-.72, this looks like a legitimate A for Brighton.  

Chelsea continue to flounder, putting up a 0-0 draw with Bournemouth.  I did watch have this game on but am hard-pressed to remember much about it, except feeling like Chelsea didn't do anything to deserve the win.  Expected goals at 1.33-1.40 (in favor of Chelsea) suggest that finishing may have been less than clinical.  Also, there were 35 fouls (20 by Chelsea).  Probably part of the reason my attention wandered.  

Fulham got a 1-0 win over still pointless Luton Town while Nottingham Forest played Burnley to a 1-1 draw.  That latter contest would be an excellent video for a referee clinic - a lot of VAR and close decisions.

Forest Green Sighting

A different Forest - Scott McKenna (r) plays for Forest Green,
not Nottingham Forest, in my FM game

I hadn't realized that Scott McKenna, a center back that I acquired this season for my FM Forest Green side, plays for Nottingham Forest.  Fun to see him in action vs Burnley on Monday.  He would have been an accessory to allowing a goal if not for a VAR call that pulled the goal back.  But, he also made a number of important clearances and looked to lead Forest's back line well.  Just like he does for my Forest Green

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Steve: Did the announcer say Haaland was carrying a piece of fruit when he scored that goal?

Dennis: No, he said Erling took that shot with aplomb.

Buh Bye Supporters Shield

The good news for the Union coming off of 2-2 draws with Cincinnati and Charlotte is that they 1) have clinched a spot in the playoffs, 2) remain just two points behind second place Orlando with a game in hand and 3) sit in fourth place.  The bad news is that 1) their hold on 4th is precarious 2) they pissed away a two-goal lead in the draw with Cincinnati and 3) they had to claw their way back from 0-2 against 12th place Charlotte.

Can we please find some more minutes for this guy?

I could only follow the Cincinnati match through internet updates and did see the highlights.  I'm left with the impression that Cincinnati are probably a better team and just took their time showing it on Saturday night.  As in, the draw feels like a bad result only because we had the lead for awhile.  Kind of like me getting some pars early in a round only to get some double bogeys later; feels crummy but the final score is an accurate reflection of my game.

Charlotte was a little different.  Curtin didn't start some regulars and Elliott was out for getting a two yellows and the requisite red on Saturday.  Not much to separate the teams in a 0-0 first half.  Then Charlotte got two thanks to some loose play and give aways.  On come Carranza and Uhre, then McGlynn and Sullivan.  Turns out the mighty Quinn (apologies to Manfred Mann) Sullivan was the key change.  He came on in the 66th minute and in the 70th minute he worked some great wing play with Carranza, got a return pass in the box and buried. it.  In stoppage time, Mbaizo got tripped in the box and (stop me if you've heard this one) Gazdag converted the PK.  

Second or fourth place would offer some home field advantages for the playoffs, especially given potential opponents like Atlanta or Nashville.

No Messi? No Mercy

Lionel Messi sat out of Saturday's match against Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.  Depending on who you want to believe, it was either because Messi will not play on artificial turf or he was carrying a slight injury and Miami were not willing to risk him at this point.  Atlanta were happy to take advantage and put a 5-2 hurting on the Herons.  We don't think this put a huge dent in Miami's playoff chances as we didn't see them coming away with points here anyway.  Meanwhile, DC United did drop two points in a 0-0 draw with Charlotte.  

On Wednesday vs Toronto, Messi did start but left late in the first half with muscle fatigue and the score level at 0-0.  The Herons went on to win 4-0 anyway.  Down in DC, United dropped two more points with a 1-1 draw against Atlanta.

The math actually got a bit worse for DC United.  Miami's max did drop to 49, a number DC can't reach.  But Miami still have a reasonable shot at 43 points with wins over NYCFC, Chicago and Charlotte twice.  Even with the two draws, DC need eight points in four matches to be sure of beating to get to 44; that's even worse than the 10 points from six matches we cited last week.

The wrinkle here of course is Messi's injury (and Alba's too for that matter).  Miami coach Gerardo Martino tells us there's no way either will play versus Orlando this Sunday.  But that's not really the issue.  The question is will he (they) play in the more winnable matches.  

Europe

Yeah, I know there was a full slate of Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League stuff this week but I didn't get to take much of it in.  Besides Newcastle, the only other action I saw was Villa fall to Legia Warszawa 2-3.  Emery gambled a bit with a heavily rotated line-up and almost got away with it.  Hopefully I'll get to see more in Matchday 2 in two weeks.

Hard Choices

Interesting schedule this weekend, with some odd timing and four Sunday morning matches at 9 am.  At least there's no 7:30 am Saturday game. 

Three choices at 10 am Saturday.  The TV game is Man City hosting Nottingham Forest.  I'm inclined to go with the London Derby between Crystal Palace and Fulham on Peacock; that's likely to be most competitive fixture in this time slot.  Third option is Luton Town - Wolves, which is probably pretty competitive as well.

The NBC feature match is Brentford - Everton at 12:30.  The Bees are a handful at home.  Then there's an added bonus, a 3 pm match on Peacock between Burnley and Man United.  The Red Devils might be a touch angry after last week's defeat to Brighton.

The aforementioned logjam at 9 am on Sunday presents some hard choices.  The North London Derby is big, with Arsenal hosting Spurs.  You'd expect that to be on USA but it's Peacock so you can't DVR it.  But, I'd like to see how Aston Villa handle Chelsea; that's also on Peacock, not DVRable.  Opta says 45.3% to 26.2%  favor Chelsea with a 28.5% chance of a draw.  That sounds a bit pessimistic about Villa's chances given their relative forms.  Also on Peacock is Liverpool - West Ham.  Curiously, the TV game is Brighton - Bournemouth; they are both south coast teams but this is not a derby - they're 100 miles apart.  And it doesn't look like a particularly close contest, arguably the least interesting of the four choices.  Watch it be a barn burner.  

Last but not least, Newcastle continue to get their own time slot.  They'll face Sheffield United away at 11:30 on USA.  This should be a chance to for the Magpies to get things going, even if it is road game.  Opta has Newcastle with 42.9% chance of winning and a 29.6% chance of a draw.  I don't think a single point here is going to satisfy Geordie fans.

I'll be at Subaru Park Saturday night as the Union take on LAFC.  Though not the LAFC of last year, still expecting a tough match here and frankly a draw wouldn't be awful.  We have Wednesday match as well, vs. Dallas, also at home.  More optimistic for a result in that one.

The Miami playoff push is on the road at Orlando on Sunday.  DC United have Red Bull at home.  Miami also have a shot at their second trophy of the season as they face Houston for the US Open Cup.  It's not clear if Messi will be ready for that one.  

The forecast calls for lots of rain, which likely means my referee assignments will be cancelled.  Plenty to watch if that happens.

There Is No Heavier Burden Than Great Potential

[Ed note: Sorry for the delay in posting.  There was a wildcat strike by the Production Department after management was initially going to prohibit the drinking of beer during posting.  Management caved and we are back in business.]

Newcastle are certainly finding that out this year.  Aston Villa to some extent as well.  Fortunately the Union saved it from being a total loss of a weekend.  Even that was more hair raising than it needed to be.

Brighton Beach Horrors (apologies to Neil Simon)

Yeah, that ball is going to curl inside the post
 for the second of Ferguson's hat trick

Evan Ferguson's hat trick made sure that Newcastle's trip to the beach was unpleasant as could be.  I'm torn between thinking the 3-1 final is harsh or totally deserved.  The first goal was off a rebound that you really can't fault Pope for not holding, although it was his mistake that kept the ball in the Newcastle end.  The second was a 20+ yard shot that slipped inside the post and the third was a deflection.  The xG only favors Brighton 1.32 - .9 so there is some support for the "final score was harsh" side.  On the other hand, they were outplayed and somewhat directionless, an offense not working on all cylinders.  The Magpies goal came from Callum Wilson in stoppage time.  However you view the score though, Brighton were clearly the better side.

So far we have played last year's 1st, 5th, 6th and 7th place teams.  An aggressive pre-season projection might have had us with four points (home win versus Villa, away draw to Brighton) and less optimistic assumptions might have been as low as one or two points.  So how come it doesn't feel that way?  The ease of the victory over Villa created unreasonable expectations?  The points thrown away in the collapse against Liverpool?  The underwhelming performance at Brighton?  All of the above?  

IMHO, Eddie Howe needs to figure out the correct roles for Isak, Guimaraes and Tonali.  Guimaraes isn't playing like a No. 10 so maybe it needs to be Isak.  They did play better when both Wilson and Isak were on the pitch.  Way too early to be pushing any panic buttons but there are issues that need to be addressed.

Who's Your Doctor?

Adding injury the the insult of the 0-3 loss to Liverpool, Aston Villa saw another player leave the game with, well, an injury.  Diego Carlos limped off the pitch with some kind of knee problem after just 19 minutes.  Early reports are that the injury is not on the level of Buendia's or Mings' so maybe he won't be out too long.  

On the one hand, it's like Emery knew who was going to get hurt and planned for it with a brilliant transfer strategy.  Buendia down - we got Diaby.  Mings out - we got Torres.  Carlos hurt - we got Lenglet (just in time apparently).  On the other hand, what is up with this spate of knee problems?  It's like Newcastle and hamstrings.  

The injury aside, it was still not a fun game to watch.

Sheffield United and Everton Are No Longer Pointless

It's only September but the Sheffield United - Everton constant was the kind of fight for survival match that you might expect in April or May.  Both sides fought like relegation was going to be decided that day.  Those who got up early to watch this one were rewarded with a fierce, if not super high quality, match.  This is the kind of fight for survival game that you might expect in April or May.  You can get a sense of the intensity of the match from this week's YouTubeableMoment, with Pickford making two incredible saves in the dying seconds of the contest.

Wrong Again

 No fair going with a collared shirt

We can't seem to get the Saturday 10 am fixture selection correct. We started with with Burnley -
Tottenham but when the score hit 3-1 favor Spurs, we realized we'd pick wrong again.  Kompany though did up his fashion game with a collared shirt this time.

Turns out either Chelsea - Nottingham Forest or Brentford - Bournemouth would have been the better choice.  We did have time to switch over and see the last 35 minutes of Forest's 1-0 win over Chelsea; the Blues can't be happy about giving Forest all three points at Stamford Bridge.  Not that Newcastle have anything to brag about but Chelsea have now lost to West Ham and Nottingham Forest.  Brentford - Bournemouth turned out to be exciting as well, with Bryan Mbeumo's stoppage time goal salvaging a 2-2 draw for the Bees.  The fourth 10 am match ended with a result you might have expected, though the 5-1 final is quite deceptive.  Fulham hung in for a while and the xG was only 2.00 - 1.46 and that includes a City PK.  Oh, and there was a Haaland hat trick, his fifth in the Premier League.  I couldn't find the stat but he was by far the fastest ever to three and four so I'm guessing he now has the record for the fastest to five as well.

Sometimes you do get what you pay for (Reuters)

At least we got the Arsenal - Man United contest right.  That was a close one, decided by Declan Rice's stoppage time goal, which could have been a YoiTubeableMoment but not for Pickford's heroics for Everton.  The Gunners remain unbeaten, with three wins and a draw, matched by Spurs, Liverpool and West Ham.

A Hat Trick of Hat Tricks

Ferguson, Haaland and Son all managed the feat.  No red cards this week though.

If We Wanted to Watch in Sunshine We Would Follow La Liga

Dennis and I both expressed annoyance at the bright sunshine for most of Week 4's matches.  "It doesn't look right" was Dennis's observation.  And it's hard to watch if half the field is covered in shadow and the other in blinding sunlight.  Also, I saw at least one defender lose a ball in the sun.  Just go back to cloudy skies please.

Where's Our Apology? (Handling: Part CXVII)

In the late stages (stoppage time actually) of West Ham's 2-1 win over Luton Town, James Ward-Prowse's arm definitely connected with the ball.  You can see the incident here.  Paul Tierney did not call for handling and his VAR John Brooks did not send him to the monitor to review.  Part of me is happy that the call on the field stood.  But at first I was thinking it wasn't very consistent with other calls we've seen.  My memory is that many times that will be called on the field and further that VAR has often intervened.  This article at ESPN argues that the refereeing has been consistent, at least with respect to VAR's reluctance to overturn calls on the field related to handling.  I dunno.  If I were Luton Town, I might have been waiting for PGMOL to call with their apologies.

It's Not Our Fault You Got A Second Yellow

So it's hard to know what to do with the Union's 4-1 win over Red Bulls a few Saturdays ago.  The U certainly had the run of play but found themselves down 0-1 in the 11th minute.  The equalizer from Glesnes at 29 minutes was a mess in front of the goal but nothing less than they deserved.  At 44 minutes, Sean Nealis certainly looked to have given the U a big advantage as he got his second yellow for handling to break up a promising attack.  BFS Color Commentator Graham R immediately voice his concern that the advantage would lead to a boring second half. 

Red Bulls saw too much of this from Wagner

Fortunately, in this rare case, he was wrong.  But at first he was wrong in the wrong way.  It was Red Bulls, not the Union, who came out strong in the second half and only an amazing save from Andre Blake kept things level.  In retrospect, that was the turning point, as shortly thereafter, Damien Lowe went low on a great cross from Wagner to head in the go ahead goal.  A minute later, Wagner set up Carranza and the lead was 3-1.  Gazdag added a fourth in the 76th minute.  Oh, that was a Wagner assist too.

Except for the early minutes of the second half, this seemed like the Union's match.  Other than goals, it doesn't read like that on the stat sheet.  Shots were 11/14, shots on target 6/4, possession 53/47 and xG just 2.1/1.3.  So it ended up being a breeze but we'll never know what might have happened without the red card.  

If He Had A Hammer...

He'd probably break it.  Former Eagle wide receiver Freddie Mitchell was the guest drum striker for the match against the Red Bulls.  He managed several hits before the mallet head flew off.  They handed him a replacement mallet and he didn't miss a beat.  It's like they knew he would break it.

Miami Math

There was an error in last week's calculation (heads will roll) - Miami can reach 52 points by winning out.  And they passed a big test this weekend, beating LAFC 3-1, in LA no less.  Then, they added a win over Kansas City on Saturday.  Meantime, Chicago lost big time down in DC so they aren't even Miami's target anymore.  Nope, the Herons are chasing DC United.  They are just six points back with two games in hand.  Triple checking my math this time, Miami have eight to go which means a possible 24 points to add to their current 28, which (carry the one) totals 52 points.  To get to 53 points, DC need 19 points in their final six to add to their 34 to be assured of staying ahead.  Many will note that you can't get 19 points in six games.  The best they can get to is also 52 points.   Still sounds a bit crazy, except looking at their schedule, you can see 15 points that Miami have a reasonable chance of grabbing  - Toronto, NYCFC, Chicago and Charlotte twice.  So let's say they get to 43 points.  DC United would still need 10 in six to be safe - that's 1.67 per game, or better than they've done so far (1.21).  Handing over all calculations to our Corecshuns section to make sure the numbers are rite.  

What Did You Do Over International Break?

Well, hopefully Newcastle made some tactical adjustments.  They'll face Brentford at home in the NBC feature match 12:30 on Saturday.  Geez, this really should be three points.

Saturday starts with Wolves - Liverpool at 7:30 on USA.  Love when that 7:30 match is on USA so we can DVR.  Five choices for your 10 am viewing.  The TV games is West Ham - Man City; I sort of get that but City don't see be fazed by anybody these days.  Our choice is Man United - Brighton as this is a test for both sides.  For United, they will be looking to establish that they are top four material.  Brighton, well, almost the same thing, except maybe for them it's about showing they are top six.  Given our track record lately, you may want to pass.  Other choices are Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace (which is not a slam dunk for the Villans and we may be torn between that and Brighton contest), Fulham v Luton Town and Spurs v Sheffield United.

Sunday adds two more in Bournemouth - Chelsea at 9 and Everton -Arsenal at 11:30, both on USA.  Neither sounds all that great but what are you going to do.  The match week concludes with Nottingham Forest - Burnley Monday at 2:45 on USA.

The Union have their last gasp at the Supporters Shield on Saturday night.  That is, if they haven't already.  They'll face Cincinnati at Subaru Park.  A win would leave them eight points back with seven to play and a game in hand.  Admittedly, we're in Lloyd Christmas territory here.  The U also have a mid-week contest, Wednesday at Charlotte.

Miami have a tough road match versus Atlanta on Saturday but get Toronto at home Wednesday.  DC United's fixtures are Charlotte and Atlanta.  With two matches this week, Miami could already be in 9th place by the next BFS post.

Which will be Friday 9/22 by the way.  Assuming everybody stays on the job.

Long List of Co-conspirators

Many sets of fingerprints were lifted from the scene of the crime - Saint James' Park, where Newcastle lost 1-2 to Liverpool despite playing a man up for over an hour.  The Union played well in DC on Saturday but then committed many of the same crimes Newcastle did Wednesday in Toronto.

Indictments Unsealed in Newcastle Case

Bailiff, read the charges.

On the afternoon of 8/27/23, in the course of losing 1-2 to Liverpool, Newcastle players, individually or collectively, committed the following offenses:

- failure to protect a 1-0 lead despite having a man advantage starting in the 28th minute

- after coughing up the lead in the 81st minute, failure to protect the 1-1 draw despite still having the man advantage

- two counts of defensive malfeasance that led directly to Liverpool goals by co-conspirators Nos. 4 and 33 [Botman and Burn]

- one count recklessly endangering a teammate with an ill-advised back pass by co-conspirator No. 39 [Guimaraes]

- two counts of failure to put a wide open shot on frame by co-conspirator No. 24 [Almiron]

- one count accessory to squandering a lead by failing to find the right mix of tactics, personnel and mentality by co-conspirator unnumbered [Eddie Howe]

Darwin Nunez ensures survival of the fittest
Photo: Ian MacNicol/Getty Images

The facts of the case:

1. Newcastle were playing well and had built a 1-0 lead on a good finish by Anthony Gordon

2. At 28 minutes, Newcastle were the beneficiary of a red card for DOGSO by Virgil van Dijk.  (That case will be adjudicated in a different court.)

3. In the following minutes, Newcastle were the better side and only a great save by Alisson on an Almiron rocket kept the score 1-0.

4. At or around 40 minutes, Newcastle attacking diminished

5. In the second half, Newcastle were tentative and at times outplayed.  They did manage some shots but they went into the stands or Alisson's midsection

6. Eventually, a defensive miscue by Botman sprung Darwin Nunez in on Nick Pope and he found the corner of the net in the 81st minute.

7.  Liverpool continued to press their disadvantage and a second error, this time by Burn, allowed Nunez to repeat his earlier effort for a second goal.

Good luck finding an impartial jury in Newcastle.  Seriously this was awful.  The only good thing about it is...nothing.  

What's the Point?

As you know, we are thrilled with the new EPL policy of yellows for being a dick.  John Brooks appropriately applied it to Trent Alexander-Arnold early in the match for a petulant toss of the ball at Gordon.  Except, minutes later, when Alexander-Arnold committed a tactical foul on a breakaway, he didn't show a second yellow.  Well, if you're going to use the yellow for time wasting or whatever as an excuse to "raise the standard" for the second yellow, you've defeated the purpose.  Jim Beglin's attempted lame defense that it wasn't serious enough to warrant a yellow fell apart when, on cross examination, he readily conceded that Alexander-Arnold would have been shown a yellow for the offense if it didn't already have a yellow.

Any One of Them Would Have Been Fine

We made a big deal about how Everton - Wolves was the clear choice for 10 am viewing last Saturday.  We were right that it was an excellent match, as good a 1-0 game as you'll see.  Wolves came away with all three points courtesy of a late goal but the Player of the Match had to be "No Way" Jose Sa, who had several fine saves, including this YouTubeableMoment of a stop.  It's just that every other match in that time slot - all of which we had pre-panned - was also good, perhaps better.  

Man United spotted Nottingham Forest two goals in the first five mintues and spent the rest of the afternoon catching up.  Which they did, eventually winning the match 3-2.  They were undoubtedly aided by Worrall's red card in the 67th minute.  In one London Derby, Brentford and Crystal Palace battled to a 1-1 draw, with Palace scoring late to grab a point.  In the other, Arsenal spent much of the match down 0-1 to Fulham, then scored twice in the span of two minutes to take the lead, only to cough it up on corner in the 87th minute.  This with Fulham a man down no less.  Yes, it was all good.

Two goals from Matty - A stash of Cash?
Photo: Getty Images

Elsewhere, results went largely to form.  Chelsea handled Luton Town 3-0, Spurs beat Bournemouth 2-0.  Man City had a scare against Sheffield United.  Surprisingly this was 0-0 until Haaland scored in the 63rd minute.  More surprising was Bogle's equalizer at 85 minutes.  City did have the last laugh though as Rodri got the game winner at 88 minutes.  Maybe West Ham 3-1 over Brighton is a bit of an upset. Check out the Hammers' goals here; that's some fine finishing by Ward-Prowse, Bowen and Antonio.  Lastly, Aston Villa did just fine at Turf Moor, besting Burnley 3-1 without anyone getting hurt.  At least during the match.  Martinez hurt himself in practice but fortunately, Olsen is a decent back up.  Matty Cash had two for the Villans

Get the Eff Up

Fulham were furious that Arsenal's second goal came with one of the players down on the end line near their goal.  They were clearly expecting Arsenal to kick the ball out.  Except, it was obviouly not a head injury so there was absolutely no obligation on the part of the Gunners to do so.  Here's the best part.  The player had hurt his hand.  Your team is under pressure and you can't get your butt up to help defend.  Maybe if he'd broken his hand or wrist I could dredge up some sympathy but he remained in the game.  The thought that it is "good sportsmanship" to kick the ball out when an opponent is down with an injury has long gone out the window with the overreaction and even feigning of injuries.  Players, you have made your own bed so you can lie it in now.  

The Kompany You Keep

I couldn't pull this look off in a million years

Burnley are off to a shaky start and may be heading for a long relegation battle.  If the Clarets do go back down, the league will lose perhaps its best fashion plate in Vincent Kompany.  The picture shows how, even in a white tee shirt, baseball cap and sneakers, he is the model of sartorial excellence.  Of course, we are free to try this but Will Smith explains here why it won't work for us.

The Company You Keep

Through 12/31/22, the top five most expensive transfers in EPL history were:

Grealish $146m

Lukaku $124 m

Pogba $116 m

Antony $100 m

Maguire $97 m

Now, you could have a reasonable debate about how these worked out but it's hard to conclude that any of these five played up to the expectations that accompanied their transfer fees.  Since January, the list has been amended to add:

Caicedo $146 m

Rice $138m

Fernandez $136 m

 The track record is not good.  On the other hand, the bar is low.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve: Did you say Aston Villa were facing financial difficulties?

Dennis: No I said they need to find some reserves for Cash to add depth to the squad

Seeing Red But Still Getting Points

Three more red cards this week, with the receiving teams going 1-1-1.  For the season, there have been nine sendings off sending offs red cards with the supposedly disadvantaged sides getting four wins and a draw.  

Lousy Draws

Just not a good week for Newcastle as their Carabao Cup third round fixture and Champions League group assignment are tall orders.   We've spoken many times of the quaint tradition in English football of not seeding teams in cup competitions but instead letting teams from the higher tiers enter the competition later.  For the Carabao Cup, the Premier League sides enter in the second round while any team involved in the European competitions (eight this year - Man City, Arsenal, Man United, Newcastle, Brighton, Aston Villa, Liverpool and West Ham) come in for the third round.  So guess who Newcastle get in the third round.  Right, Man City.  Teams get a bye just so they can face each other in their opening round.  This is even richer.  Remember last year's Carabao Cup finalists?  Right, Man City and Newcastle.  Arte Johnson offers his opinion on this approach here.

We knew the Champions League would be difficult.  The reigning champions go into one pot, meaning there's no way they'll be in the same group.  The rest of the clubs are divided into the other three pots, based on their club coefficient ranking.  The Magpies, who haven't played in Europe since 2012, had the fourth worst ranking and were in the last pot.  They were virtually assured of at least two difficult opponents.  As it was, they got three, ending up in the group with PSG, Borussia Dortmund and AC Milan.  The draw was so bad for Newcastle, you could hear the crowd gasp.  Reaching the knockout stage will be a long shot. I understate.

The Costanza Defense

I had stayed out the cess pool that is the management and administration of the Spanish women's national team, preferring to focus on the fine work of the players.   However, the kiss that the head of the Spanish federation, Luis Rubiales planted on lips of Jenni Hermoso (details here) won't go away, especially after Rubiales offered up his first apology:

However, criticism continued to mount, and Rubiales acknowledged in Monday's statement -- according to a Pro Soccer Wire translation -- that "on the outside it has caused a stir, because people have felt hurt by it, so I have to apologize; there’s no alternative."  He characterized his interaction with Hermoso as "something natural and normal," but as president of the national federation he conceded he must be held to a higher standard. “I made a mistake, for sure,” Rubiales said. “I have to accept it. In a moment of such emotion, without any bad intention or bad faith, what happened, happened, in a very spontaneous way. [There was] no bad faith from either side."

Okay, maybe it's not as bad as the George Costanza defense but it is the classic "I don't think it's wrong but if you are offended by it, then I apologize."  Things deteriorated from there.  He has refused calls to resign and claims the kiss was consensual, which Hermoso categorically denies.  The whole team says they will not play for Spain unless he steps down. 

 

Foiled By the New Manager Bounce?

Things went well for the Union down in DC as they handed United a 3-1 defeat.  Uhre and McGlynn had them up 2-0 within 13 minutes and Gazdag added a PK late in the first half.  DC got a consolation goal late.  The stats, especially xG (1.96-1.63), suggest a closer match but I don't recall feeling like this one was in jeopardy.  I was watching on my phone so maybe I didn't see everything.

The trip to Toronto was not so nice.  This club had lost eight straight (10 if you count League Cup) and hadn't won since May 27th.  On Monday, the club announced that John Herdman, who has had some success with the Canadian national team, would be taking over as manager formally on October 1.  He was in the stands for Wednesday's match and presumably has had some contact with the team already.  Does that qualify for a new manager bounce?

Not sure who makes that call but it doesn't matter.  The Union were behind the eight ball for this match, looking slow on defense (and it wasn't just the crappy Apple streaming feed) and generally outplayed.  Possession was 42% and they only had two shots on target (but 17 total shots).  Somehow, xG is 2.2 -1.7 favor the Union.  Guess those missed shots were high percentage.  It certainly didn't feel that close.  The loss takes the U from second to fourth.      

First place was really already gone anyway.  But home field advantage for the playoffs is a reason to want 2nd or at worst 4th in the standings.  Certainly not out of range.  

Don't Look at Your Shadow, It's Behind You (apologies to Stephen Stills and Manassas)

Last week, we highlighted the steep hill Inter Miami will need to climb to make the MLS playoffs. Well, off the two games this week, Chicago better not look behind them.  Miami got four points from a 2-0 win over Red Bulls in Harrison (which featured the YouTubeableMoment East of the Atlantic Division, with Messi getting the secondary assist on his own goal) and followed it with a 0-0 draw at home to Nashville.  Chicago meanwhile dropped six points, losing to LAFC and Vancouver.  So, Miami is now 10 points back of Chicago with two games in hand.  Reworking last week's math,  Miami can reach 50 points by winning out from here.  Chicago would need to get 19 points from eight matches if that were to happen.  They are currently average 1.23 points per game so that would get them only another 10 points.  At that rate, this ain't over.

Rinse and Repeat

Another busy weekend ahead of the international break. Opta's predictions for the week are here.

We start on Friday again with Luton Town (again) hosting West Ham at 3 pm on USA.

Might be worth getting up at 7:30 for Sheffield and Everton.  Both teams need to get points off of teams like each other if they want to avoid relegation.  Opta has it as the most competitive match of the weekend.  This one is on USA so we can sleep a little later and catch up on DVR.  

Four 10 am choices - none look all that competitive with the options being Brentford - Bournemouth, Burnley-Tottenham, Chelsea-Nottingham Forest or Man City - Fulham.  Hard pressed to pick one out of that bunch.  Chelsea - Forest is the USA match.   We'll probably go with Burnley-Spurs to see what Kompany is wearing and to see if Spurs can maintain their exciting level of play.  Probably the least likely of the four to be a rout.  

Newcastle again get the spotlight, this time on the NBC feature match at 12:30 as they face Brighton down the shore as we say in Philly.  Both sides are coming off of somewhat unexpected losses.  Brighton are favored at home but the Magpies snatching a point doesn't seem out of the question.  

Sunday has the best match of the weekend with Arsenal hosting Man United at 11:30 on USA.  Two choices for your 9 am warm-up.  We'll go with Liverpool - Aston Villa, even if we fear a tough day for the visitors; that's on USA.  Crystal Palace - Wolves, on Peacock, might be a close one.

We get the tickets for Sunday night at Subaru Park as the Union face Red Bulls.  Recall that Jim Curtin threw out some lockerroom bulletin board quotes after the last time the Jersey Boys were in town.  Should add to the atmosphere.  It's never pretty when these two play.  

In the playoff saga, Inter Miami travel to California to face the always tough LAFC.  An early challenge to winning out the season.  Chicago are at DC.

European Championship Qualifiers run from Thursday to Tuesday.  We might get to look in on France-Ireland Thursday at 2:45.

Busy but manageable.  Uh oh, refereeing starts 9/9.

Little Crumbs of Comfort

 I think it was Jim Proudfoot's explanation of the positives that Aston Villa took away from their opening day loss to Newcastle but it works well this week too for Newcastle and the Union.  Women's World Cup wrapped up with a decent if not scintillating final.

The Reign of Spain

The Spain-England final featured some good back-and-forth football, just not much scoring.  Olga Carmona got the only goal at 29 minutes; you can see the video here.  My take was that Spain were marginally the better side.  The stats bear that out.  Possession was 56/44, shots were 12/8, shots on target were 4/3 and expected goals were 2.2/.5.  Remember that 2.2 includes .8 for the late PK awarded to Spain.  I begrudgingly agreed with the handling call but was happy that Earps (who won the keepers award for the tournament) stopped it.  At least it gave us the possibility of an England equalizer in the closing minutes.  Alas, it never came.  

I didn't get to see the third place match in which Sweden got bronze with a 2-0 win over Australia.  Good tournaments for both of those sides.

Aside from the disappointment that the USWNT didn't go make a deep run, this was an entertaining tournment.  The expanded field resulted in an interesting group stage, even if there were a few overmatched squads.  The knockout stages weren't quite as exciting but still mostly offered close contests.  With more countries taking an interest in their women's program, this looks to be a very competitive tournament going forward.

Women's World Cup Final - Director's "Cut"

Because of a DVR malfunction, I had to watch the final on a replay offered later in the day on Sunday.  Full disclosure - by malfunction I mean I forgot to set the DVR.  A busy weekend so cut me some slack.  Anyway, as I'm watching the replay, Spain are about to take a throw-in on their half of the field at 25:08.  Next thing I see is England taking a goal kick at 27:05.  WTF?  It happened at least two other times during the replay.  One was okay, as Spain are taking a throw-in and the time advances only 15 seconds and they are still taking the throw-in; I do that all the time watching replays.  But the other one cut out more than a minute and a change of possession.  Obviously nothing of consequence happened but those edits were incredibly jarring.  And unnecessary.  There are plenty of ways to cut 3-5 minutes off the viewing time in ways that would be essentially imperceptible to all but the most eagle-eyed viewers.  Fox remains ahead of Apple as a soccer TV provider but they are still way behind Peacock, ESPN and even Paramount.

Small Consolation

Newcastle give Alvarez a little too much space

What to say about Newcastle's 1-0 loss to Man City at the Etihad?  There's no shame in a narrow defeat to the best club side in the world.  City did not run roughshod over the Magpies, who did not bunker in or seem intimidated by their hosts.  There were about 15 minutes late in the match when a Newcastle equalizer didn't seem out of the question.  The xG was 1.23 - .26, supporting the view that this was not a blow out.

On the other hand, the .26 xG shows how little offense Newcastle generated.  Close or not, the result was still disappointing.  We are better but the gap is still there.  

$145 m per PK Conceded

Chelsea do not seem to have righted their ship yet.  They did manage a draw versus Liverpool last week but fell 1-3 to West Ham on Sunday, despite being a man up for the last 23+ minutes.  They were down 1-2 at the time, didn't look all that threatening even with the advantage, and eventually conceded a third goal.  That was courtesy of a foul in the box by Caicedo, their expensive midfield acquisition from Brighton.  Mildly defensive here but I will not be putting up with complaints about Newcastle spending money in the transfer market when Chelsea shell out $145 million for this guy.  He's not a bad player but how is he possibly worth anything close to that?  I was mildly dismayed when Newcastle paid over $40 million each on Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes but this is a whole 'nother level of overspending.    

Also, Pochettino's lament about the better side losing rings a touch hollow.  The xG was 1.71 - 1.61 so you didn't dominate.  Yes, .76 of West Ham's number is because of the PK, but so was Chelsea's; the difference was they missed theirs.  Only two weeks in but this still looks like last year's model.

Addition By Subtraction

A side definitely not driving last year's model is Tottenham.  Despite (because of?) the departure of Harry (He's not one of us anymore), new manager Postalcode Postcolonial Ange has Spurs playing some attractive, flowing football.  I can't be much of neutral with respect to Spurs now as they likely be vying with Newcastle for a Champions League spot but damn they are enjoyable to watch. Spurs benefitted from some United misses (looking at you Fernandes and Rashford) and the final probably should have been closer.  Also, I expect some United fans will squawk about Romero not getting called for handling.  For me it was the right call; his hands were not above his shoulders, they were that far from his body and the arms were arguably in a natural position given that he was lunging with one leg.  Personally, a draw might have been a better result for Newcastle but I can't deny it was fun to watch.

Seeing Red

Five sides saw red cards in Matchweek 2 contests.  Three of them still won.  Two even scored after going down a man. Mac Allister exited with a straight red in the 58th minute with Liverpool up on Bournemouth 2-1.  Minutes later it was 3-1 and that was the final.  At West Ham, Aguerd made a stupid challenge already carrying a yellow and was given his marching orders in the 67th minute against Chelsea.  They managed just fine, adding a PK late to make the final 3-1.  Arsenal, playing Crystal Palace saw Tomiyasu sent out off in the 67th minute after he got one yellow for time wasting and a second for a marginal foul.  The Gunners were up 1-0 at the time, spent the rest of the match bunkered in and held on for the win.  Actually, Palace looked like they could have played another 45 minutes up a man and still not scored.

Fulham were not so fortunate against Brentford.  Already down 0-1, they saw Tim Ream sent off at 64 minutes.  The Bees added two more with their advantage for a 3-0 win.  The red card in the Wolves 1-4 loss to Brighton was actually a footnote.  Their fate was already sealed when Nunes got a second yellow in the 95th minute. 

That'll Leave A Mark

Sheffield United were seconds away from taking home a point from Nottingham Forest.  Then Chris Wood  scored a header goal in the 90th minute to steal the win for Forest.  It really was a quality header as seen in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Doesn't seem like much in August but come May, lost points like that could really matter for Sheffield United.  Also, nice to see Chris Wood find that scoring touch.  He was much maligned during his time at Newcastle but he didn't have the supporting cast that plays at St. James' Park now.

That's More Like It

Aston Villa rebounded quickly from the loss to Newcastle with a 4-0 thumping of Everton.  All the stats say this was about the right score.  Only negative was that Coutinho went down with what looked like a serious injury.  Later reports suggest it wasn't so bad and he might only miss weeks not months.  But there are reports that he's heading to Qatar soon anyway.  They also got a 5-0 win versus Hibernia, virtually locking up their advancement to the group stage of the Europa Conference League.

Silverware for Miami

Messi is 1-0 in cup competition at Miami

They are dead last in the East with 18 points but Miami got to lift the Leagues Cup trophy after outlasting Nashville in a 22-kick shootout.  The Cup came down to the two keepers taking PKs against each other in the 11th round of kicks.  Miami's Callander converted his, Panicco did not.  

Miami ran the table, winning both their group stage fixtures, then five straight knockout matches.  Note that two of those were draws decided by PKs but still an impressive run. 

So now what for this club?  They are currently 14 points out of a playoff position with 12 regular season matches to go.  If they won all 12, clubs like Montreal or Chicago would have to get 22 points from 10 matches, which doesn't sound all that easy.  Of course, neither does winning 12 straight, especially when you realize that they won't go to PKs if there's a draw.  I will say that Miami is the Philadelphia Phillies of the MLS; they may not make the playoffs but if they do, this is one club you would prefer not to face.

Um, don't look now but Miami just advanced to another Cup final.  They beat Cincinnati (on PKs, how about that) to gain a spot in the US Open Cup final.  Should you find yourself with 15 minutes of spare time, check out the highlights of that match; stuff like this might actually boost the interest in the MLS.  The final against Houston Dynamo is 9/27.

Some Consolation

The Union closed out their run in the  Leagues Cup competition smartly with a 3-0 win over Monterrey.  Sure it's only a third place trophy but they 1)didn't mail in their performance and 2) come away with a spot in next year's CONCACAF Champions League.  Actually, that's more than just crumbs.  They got deep in the competition without playing their best and came away with something useful.  Hopefully, this strong ending leaves them with a positive feeling about the team as they head into the last 11 games with lots of work to do.

Wait, I forgot to mention the best part.  The two Jeffs report that the substitute sausage vendor on Saturday put two sausages in each roll.

Simplification

Wow, just EPL and MLS this weekend.

Opta's predictions for this week are here.

Premier (so to speak) match of the weekend looks like Newcastle - Liverpool at 11:30 on Sunday (USA).  This is a more important test for the Magpies than last week versus Man City.  Losing at Man City is almost expected but Liverpool are not Man City and this one is at Saint James' Park.  Opta doesn't think much of our chances (27/28/45).  Hmm, I was thinking anything less than a draw would be a failing grade; I guess maybe Opta doesn't see Newcastle as a top six squad.

Things get started on Friday with Chelsea hosting Luton Town at 3 pm on Peacock.  Hmm, probably wouldn't watch otherwise but it's the only game in town.  Saturday starts too early with Bournemouth vs Spurs at 7:30 on USA; should not be trouble for Tottenham.

Four matches at 10 am.  If you're looking for the most competitive, I'd go with Everton - Wolves on Peacock.  If you like London Derbies (of which there are only 42 this year) you can do Arsenal - Fulham (USA) or Brentford - Crystal Palace (Peacock).  Man United - Nottingham Forest (Peacock) doesn't look all that attractive.  The NBC feature match at 12:30 with Brighton - West Ham is probably worth checking out.

On Sunday, we have two 9 am matches to warm up for the Newcastle - Liverpool contest.  I wasn't thinking Burnley would be a severe test for Aston Villa but Opta thinks otherwise.  Villa are favored but not by as much as I expected.  Probably should choose this one over Man City - Sheffield United.

The Union play on the road after a long string of home matches in the Leagues Cup.  They'll face DC United at 7:30 Saturday night.  Hey, it's on "free" Apple.  We'll also keep on eye on Red Bulls - Miami to see how the Herons fare in regular league play.

Those in need of mid-week football can take comfort in a complete MLS set of fixtures on Wednesday.  The Union go to Toronto.  Also, Miami host Nashville.  We may get a quick sense of how Miami will do in league play.  Right now all matches look to be on Mighty Lame Soccer Season Pass, not "free" Apple.

Fewer competitions maybe but still much to watch.

Messy

Not much normal about Tuesday night's Leagues Cup semi at Subaru Park.

 - Despite getting there a half hour earlier than usual, we were lucky to get the last parking spot in our favored church lot

- Messi jerseys of all types were almost as prevalent as Union attire

- The Union lost at home

- The Union gave up four goals at home

The only thing not out of whack was the sausage sandwich.  Wait, come to think of it, the roll crumbled as I ate it, leaving peppers and onions all over the place.  Bad omen.

But the weirdest part is how I'm going to try to explain that the final score of 1-4 was deceptive.  Start with expected goals.  According to The Athletic, the margin was 2.56 - .60 favor the Union.  Corners were 8-0, shots 16-5 and shots on target 4-4.  Yep, Miami scored on every shot on target.  We've known for a long time how much the U depend on Andre Blake and it was incredibly clear Tuesday night.  The Martinez goal at 3 minutes (I had barely finished cleaning up the peppers and onions) was simply a fabulous shot but also worth about .04 xG.  The Messi goal?  Still trying to figure out how Blake didn't stop that one, a change up from 30 yards (36.3 to be exact) with a .01 xG; seen here, I'll grant it was perfect placement but it was also clocked with a sundial.  The other two were breakaways resulting from defensive failures but Blake looked to have a decent chance to stop both.  On the other side of the pitch, the Union were generating much higher percent opportunities but they were either stopped by Drake Callender or flat out missed by the Union.  And that is a text book example of how xG will vary from the actual score.

Martinez negotiates with Messi to be in his next Lay's ad

Note I said deceptive, not unfair.  The U made a living eking wins out of their Leagues Cup matches and finally got caught.  Just too many things not working.  Some bright spots were Jose Martinez (did his normal defensive work, helped on the attacking side, didn't get a yellow card, wasn't taking crap from Messi), Damian Lowe (actually dispossessed Messi on a few occasions) and Bedoya (team played a bit better after he entered the match and he got the U's only goal).

They get to play in the third place match, which is not exactly a Miss Congeniality Award.  A win in that contest would get them a spot in next year's CONCACAF League of Champions, something their regular season performance seems unlikely to yield.  So, we hope they don't play like it's a consolation match.

Do You Want That In A Cup Or Are You Gonna Drink It Out Of The Can?

Figuring out the beer dispensing policies at Subaru Park has been difficult this year.  For MLS matches, they just give you the can and say enjoy.  For at least one of the CONCACAF Champions League matches, I know they poured it into a plastic cup.  But it might have only been for the game against the Mexican side Atlas.  For the Leagues Cup, they were just giving us the cans, even if the opponent was from Liga MX.  But for Tuesday night, they were pouring it again.

Our vendor said it was because of Messi.  Jeff H said he doubted that Messi fans would be throwing cans at their idol.  The vendor shrugged, suggesting maybe they were worried about disgruntled French fans, upset that Messi had abandoned PSG for Miami.

Spain vs England for the WWC

Decent semi-final matches on Tuesday and Wednesday with Spain edging Sweden 2-1 and England handling Australia 3-1.  Both matches were pretty close but the final results looked about right to me.

Although the Spain - Sweden match featured good back-and-forth action and plenty of tension, you could have also fast forwarded to the 80th minute to get to the important stuff.  Spain scored in the 81st minute but with time running out, Sweden levelled things at 88 minutes, making extra time seem inevitable.  Not so fast as seconds later, Olga Carmona received a corner and fired this shot past Swedish keeper Musovic.  That would be the game winner, sparing us extra time or PKs.

Australia gave Hemp too much rope and she scored the 
game winner (Reuters)

In the other match, I would have said England had the run of play but things were still level at 1-1 going into the 71st minute.  Part of the reason it was even was Sam Kerr, in her first start, firing a rocket in the 63rd minute.  People didn't get to see much of her in this tournament because of her injury and she didn't have a great game against England, missing some chances.  Still, I am making it this week's YouTubeableMoment just to remind us how good she is.  Alas, it was not the game winner as England scored in 71st and then again at 86 minutes to salt away the match. 

We Rant, You Decide

Oy, plenty of right wing trashing of the USWNT in the wake of their loss to Sweden.  And Alexi Lalas' fingerprints are all over it.  From The Washington Post:

Also following the loss, Alexi Lalas, a former men’s national team player, a current Fox analyst and a well-known provocateur, called the team “polarizing” and “unlikeable to a portion of America.” Though Lalas’s comments ring with truth — because, yes, extreme right-wingers despise these women — they seem strange coming from a person who is being paid to elevate soccer knowledge for Americans, not to Hannity-ize the game.

Ot take this post from vox.  Money paragraph for me:

The same kind of “woke = failure” rhetoric was implied in Fox commentator Alexi Lalas’s tweet about the game. (Fox happened to be the network broadcasting the Women’s World Cup.) Lalas wrote, “This USWNT is polarizing. Politics, causes, stances, & behavior have made this team unlikeable to a portion of America. This team has built its brand and has derived its power from being the best/winning. If that goes away they risk becoming irrelevant.” Despite playing on the US men’s national soccer team, Lalas never came close to winning a World Cup. As his critics point out, in his own terms, this would make Lalas irrelevant.

While, I don't necessarily steer clear of politics here it's not a regular feature of the blog.  Sometimes it can't be ignored.  This team already had some element of the country actively rooting against it because of the audacity to support equal rights or even worse, engage in collective bargaining to increase their pay.  The trend was accelerated when some of the team did not sing the national anthem or put their hand over their heart.  That's a pretty lame litmus test.  

Wanna know why the US dominated the international soccer scene for so long?  It was the f**king "woke" policy that the US had of insisting that schools set athletic budgets equally for men and women.  While the rest of the world didn't give a crap about their women's teams, we were developing excellent athletes.  The rest of world is starting to put the resources into the women's programs and has caught up; I doubt you'll see anybody dominate women's soccer the way the US did for 20 years.

Aside from the competition being better, there are plenty of other reasons they lost.  Many players had sub-par performances,  They had injuries.  The coach made questionable decisions on strategy, tactics and personnel.  The US player development system looks to be in chaos.  These are all fair game.  The other stuff?  That's just haters hating.

Still Crowded

And me with family travel obligations Friday and Saturday.

The WWC Final is at the awkward hour of 6 am Sunday morning.  Just early enough to tempt one into early rising.  Especially with two EPL matches to follow.  Probably not for me.  This has been the World Cup of DVRing so might as well continue right through the final.  The betting odds suggest a virtual toss up with a very slight edge to Spain.  

Nashville will host Inter Miami at 9 pm for the Leagues Cup final.  The Union will play Monterrey earlier at 6 pm.  Both matches are on Apple though I can't tell if they are behind the MLS Season Pass. 

The EPL fixtures are nicely spread out over four days so you can catch a lot of the action.  We'll be using projections from Opta, replacing 538, to assess the quality of the match-ups; their projections for this week can be found here.   If we trust those numbers, we have a bunch of interesting fixtures this weekend.

One of those is not Man City - Newcastle in a special time at 3 pm on Saturday on Peacock.  Are the Magpies ready to challenge for the top?  I don't think so but am interested to see if they are any closer.  The folks at Opta have it 69/11/20, suggesting it best to keep my hopes in check.  The fact that they've never won in 18 tries at the Etihad also dampens the enthusiasm.

One that is intriguing fixture is Spurs - Man United, the feature match at 12:30 Saturday on NBC.  Opta has that very close at 39/28/32 for Spurs.  This is an early test for both sides.

A test of a different nature is on view Friday at 2:45 when Nottingham Forest host Sheffield United (USA).  Yes, it's only Week 2 but both of these sides must be eyeing this fixture as an early assessment of their relegation threat.  Forest are favored but not by a lot.

No early Saturday game, then three at 10 am.  We would skip Liverpool - Bournemouth (the one on USA) in favor of either Fulham-Brentford or Wolves-Brighton.  The former is a derby and looks close on paper so that would probably be our choice.  

Two more on Sunday.  Aston Villa host Everton at 9 on USA; this will be an important bounce-back game for the Villans.  The second is another derby featuring West Ham and Chelsea (11:30 USA).  Interestingly, Opta has this very close - 34/29/37 - giving the slightest of edges to Chelsea.  Part of that no doubt is that West Ham are at home but it also reflects Chelsea's uncertain status as a top six club.  The match week concludes with yet another derby - Crystal Palace vs Arsenal - at 3 pm on USA.  The Gunners are comfortable favorites here.

Full slate of MLS games on Sunday if the evening rolls around and you still haven't gotten enough soccer.  Most are on MLS Season Pass but there's are few on "free" Apple.