There Is No Heavier Burden Than Great Potential

[Ed note: Sorry for the delay in posting.  There was a wildcat strike by the Production Department after management was initially going to prohibit the drinking of beer during posting.  Management caved and we are back in business.]

Newcastle are certainly finding that out this year.  Aston Villa to some extent as well.  Fortunately the Union saved it from being a total loss of a weekend.  Even that was more hair raising than it needed to be.

Brighton Beach Horrors (apologies to Neil Simon)

Yeah, that ball is going to curl inside the post
 for the second of Ferguson's hat trick

Evan Ferguson's hat trick made sure that Newcastle's trip to the beach was unpleasant as could be.  I'm torn between thinking the 3-1 final is harsh or totally deserved.  The first goal was off a rebound that you really can't fault Pope for not holding, although it was his mistake that kept the ball in the Newcastle end.  The second was a 20+ yard shot that slipped inside the post and the third was a deflection.  The xG only favors Brighton 1.32 - .9 so there is some support for the "final score was harsh" side.  On the other hand, they were outplayed and somewhat directionless, an offense not working on all cylinders.  The Magpies goal came from Callum Wilson in stoppage time.  However you view the score though, Brighton were clearly the better side.

So far we have played last year's 1st, 5th, 6th and 7th place teams.  An aggressive pre-season projection might have had us with four points (home win versus Villa, away draw to Brighton) and less optimistic assumptions might have been as low as one or two points.  So how come it doesn't feel that way?  The ease of the victory over Villa created unreasonable expectations?  The points thrown away in the collapse against Liverpool?  The underwhelming performance at Brighton?  All of the above?  

IMHO, Eddie Howe needs to figure out the correct roles for Isak, Guimaraes and Tonali.  Guimaraes isn't playing like a No. 10 so maybe it needs to be Isak.  They did play better when both Wilson and Isak were on the pitch.  Way too early to be pushing any panic buttons but there are issues that need to be addressed.

Who's Your Doctor?

Adding injury the the insult of the 0-3 loss to Liverpool, Aston Villa saw another player leave the game with, well, an injury.  Diego Carlos limped off the pitch with some kind of knee problem after just 19 minutes.  Early reports are that the injury is not on the level of Buendia's or Mings' so maybe he won't be out too long.  

On the one hand, it's like Emery knew who was going to get hurt and planned for it with a brilliant transfer strategy.  Buendia down - we got Diaby.  Mings out - we got Torres.  Carlos hurt - we got Lenglet (just in time apparently).  On the other hand, what is up with this spate of knee problems?  It's like Newcastle and hamstrings.  

The injury aside, it was still not a fun game to watch.

Sheffield United and Everton Are No Longer Pointless

It's only September but the Sheffield United - Everton constant was the kind of fight for survival match that you might expect in April or May.  Both sides fought like relegation was going to be decided that day.  Those who got up early to watch this one were rewarded with a fierce, if not super high quality, match.  This is the kind of fight for survival game that you might expect in April or May.  You can get a sense of the intensity of the match from this week's YouTubeableMoment, with Pickford making two incredible saves in the dying seconds of the contest.

Wrong Again

 No fair going with a collared shirt

We can't seem to get the Saturday 10 am fixture selection correct. We started with with Burnley -
Tottenham but when the score hit 3-1 favor Spurs, we realized we'd pick wrong again.  Kompany though did up his fashion game with a collared shirt this time.

Turns out either Chelsea - Nottingham Forest or Brentford - Bournemouth would have been the better choice.  We did have time to switch over and see the last 35 minutes of Forest's 1-0 win over Chelsea; the Blues can't be happy about giving Forest all three points at Stamford Bridge.  Not that Newcastle have anything to brag about but Chelsea have now lost to West Ham and Nottingham Forest.  Brentford - Bournemouth turned out to be exciting as well, with Bryan Mbeumo's stoppage time goal salvaging a 2-2 draw for the Bees.  The fourth 10 am match ended with a result you might have expected, though the 5-1 final is quite deceptive.  Fulham hung in for a while and the xG was only 2.00 - 1.46 and that includes a City PK.  Oh, and there was a Haaland hat trick, his fifth in the Premier League.  I couldn't find the stat but he was by far the fastest ever to three and four so I'm guessing he now has the record for the fastest to five as well.

Sometimes you do get what you pay for (Reuters)

At least we got the Arsenal - Man United contest right.  That was a close one, decided by Declan Rice's stoppage time goal, which could have been a YoiTubeableMoment but not for Pickford's heroics for Everton.  The Gunners remain unbeaten, with three wins and a draw, matched by Spurs, Liverpool and West Ham.

A Hat Trick of Hat Tricks

Ferguson, Haaland and Son all managed the feat.  No red cards this week though.

If We Wanted to Watch in Sunshine We Would Follow La Liga

Dennis and I both expressed annoyance at the bright sunshine for most of Week 4's matches.  "It doesn't look right" was Dennis's observation.  And it's hard to watch if half the field is covered in shadow and the other in blinding sunlight.  Also, I saw at least one defender lose a ball in the sun.  Just go back to cloudy skies please.

Where's Our Apology? (Handling: Part CXVII)

In the late stages (stoppage time actually) of West Ham's 2-1 win over Luton Town, James Ward-Prowse's arm definitely connected with the ball.  You can see the incident here.  Paul Tierney did not call for handling and his VAR John Brooks did not send him to the monitor to review.  Part of me is happy that the call on the field stood.  But at first I was thinking it wasn't very consistent with other calls we've seen.  My memory is that many times that will be called on the field and further that VAR has often intervened.  This article at ESPN argues that the refereeing has been consistent, at least with respect to VAR's reluctance to overturn calls on the field related to handling.  I dunno.  If I were Luton Town, I might have been waiting for PGMOL to call with their apologies.

It's Not Our Fault You Got A Second Yellow

So it's hard to know what to do with the Union's 4-1 win over Red Bulls a few Saturdays ago.  The U certainly had the run of play but found themselves down 0-1 in the 11th minute.  The equalizer from Glesnes at 29 minutes was a mess in front of the goal but nothing less than they deserved.  At 44 minutes, Sean Nealis certainly looked to have given the U a big advantage as he got his second yellow for handling to break up a promising attack.  BFS Color Commentator Graham R immediately voice his concern that the advantage would lead to a boring second half. 

Red Bulls saw too much of this from Wagner

Fortunately, in this rare case, he was wrong.  But at first he was wrong in the wrong way.  It was Red Bulls, not the Union, who came out strong in the second half and only an amazing save from Andre Blake kept things level.  In retrospect, that was the turning point, as shortly thereafter, Damien Lowe went low on a great cross from Wagner to head in the go ahead goal.  A minute later, Wagner set up Carranza and the lead was 3-1.  Gazdag added a fourth in the 76th minute.  Oh, that was a Wagner assist too.

Except for the early minutes of the second half, this seemed like the Union's match.  Other than goals, it doesn't read like that on the stat sheet.  Shots were 11/14, shots on target 6/4, possession 53/47 and xG just 2.1/1.3.  So it ended up being a breeze but we'll never know what might have happened without the red card.  

If He Had A Hammer...

He'd probably break it.  Former Eagle wide receiver Freddie Mitchell was the guest drum striker for the match against the Red Bulls.  He managed several hits before the mallet head flew off.  They handed him a replacement mallet and he didn't miss a beat.  It's like they knew he would break it.

Miami Math

There was an error in last week's calculation (heads will roll) - Miami can reach 52 points by winning out.  And they passed a big test this weekend, beating LAFC 3-1, in LA no less.  Then, they added a win over Kansas City on Saturday.  Meantime, Chicago lost big time down in DC so they aren't even Miami's target anymore.  Nope, the Herons are chasing DC United.  They are just six points back with two games in hand.  Triple checking my math this time, Miami have eight to go which means a possible 24 points to add to their current 28, which (carry the one) totals 52 points.  To get to 53 points, DC need 19 points in their final six to add to their 34 to be assured of staying ahead.  Many will note that you can't get 19 points in six games.  The best they can get to is also 52 points.   Still sounds a bit crazy, except looking at their schedule, you can see 15 points that Miami have a reasonable chance of grabbing  - Toronto, NYCFC, Chicago and Charlotte twice.  So let's say they get to 43 points.  DC United would still need 10 in six to be safe - that's 1.67 per game, or better than they've done so far (1.21).  Handing over all calculations to our Corecshuns section to make sure the numbers are rite.  

What Did You Do Over International Break?

Well, hopefully Newcastle made some tactical adjustments.  They'll face Brentford at home in the NBC feature match 12:30 on Saturday.  Geez, this really should be three points.

Saturday starts with Wolves - Liverpool at 7:30 on USA.  Love when that 7:30 match is on USA so we can DVR.  Five choices for your 10 am viewing.  The TV games is West Ham - Man City; I sort of get that but City don't see be fazed by anybody these days.  Our choice is Man United - Brighton as this is a test for both sides.  For United, they will be looking to establish that they are top four material.  Brighton, well, almost the same thing, except maybe for them it's about showing they are top six.  Given our track record lately, you may want to pass.  Other choices are Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace (which is not a slam dunk for the Villans and we may be torn between that and Brighton contest), Fulham v Luton Town and Spurs v Sheffield United.

Sunday adds two more in Bournemouth - Chelsea at 9 and Everton -Arsenal at 11:30, both on USA.  Neither sounds all that great but what are you going to do.  The match week concludes with Nottingham Forest - Burnley Monday at 2:45 on USA.

The Union have their last gasp at the Supporters Shield on Saturday night.  That is, if they haven't already.  They'll face Cincinnati at Subaru Park.  A win would leave them eight points back with seven to play and a game in hand.  Admittedly, we're in Lloyd Christmas territory here.  The U also have a mid-week contest, Wednesday at Charlotte.

Miami have a tough road match versus Atlanta on Saturday but get Toronto at home Wednesday.  DC United's fixtures are Charlotte and Atlanta.  With two matches this week, Miami could already be in 9th place by the next BFS post.

Which will be Friday 9/22 by the way.  Assuming everybody stays on the job.