FA Cup Potpourri

Not every match was awesome but there were plenty that had that certain "je ne sais quoi" which makes the FA Cup sometimes watchable.

Everybody Hates VAR Until They Don't

Newcastle and Aston Villa squared off in the toughest match of the fourth round.  VAR, or the lack thereof (it's not used until the 5th round), quickly became a talking point.  Villa got an early lead on a free kick lofted over the Newcastle defensive line to Tammy Abraham, who deftly trapped it and scored.  Real time I thought he was offside and replay confirmed that.  Not by a lot but enough that the AR should have gotten it right.  Oh well.  Flash forward to later in the half when Luca Digne makes a rash challenge on Jacob Murphy.  Kavanaugh immediately went with yellow which seemed okay real time.  The replay wasn't as kind.  Many think it should have been red and that VAR would definitely have upgraded the card.  I'm less convinced.  Sure, it left a mark on Murphy but that might just be because he uses shin guards the size of credit cards.  Anyway, the worst was yet to come.

Kavanaugh and his team's bad awful
day in three pictures

Newcastle started the second half with a man advantage thanks to a massive brain cramp by Villa keeper Bizot, who drew a straight red for DOGSO on Murphy.  The Magpies seized the initiative but without immediate results.  Then, Trippier sent a ball into the box which Digne promptly handled for a PK.  Well it should have been but neither Kavanaugh or his assistant believed the handling was in the box.  They are the only two in the world who saw it that way.  Martinez punched the free kick out to the top of the box where Tonali rifled a shot that took a massive deflection into the net.  So they got a goal anyway. You can see the whole thing here as this week's YouTubeableMoment; Jon Champion called it "natural justice" but for me it was the coolest version of "ball don't lie" I've ever seen.  Tonali later scored on another long shot and Woltemade added insurance for the 3-1 final.

The match inspired a lively should we/shouldn't we use VAR.  The pro VAR side would seem to have a clear upper hand based on this situation but the antis got some good shots in.  Sure there were some bad calls here but life went on and wasn't it great not to have those lengthy interventions.  Maybe, but its a lot easier to be all like "shit happens" when the bad calls did not prevent the correct team from advancing.  Not sure you'd be hearing as much support for ditching VAR if Newcastle hadn't moved on.  Further, while you could argue this stuff evens out over the course of the season that is not the case in where you are bounced with a single loss.

Some unfortunate notes for Newcastle.  Guimaraes is out for up to 10 weeks with a hamstring problem and Wissa is hurt now too.  They need 1) Joelinton to return from injury b) Miley to return from injury iii) Ramsey to significantly lower his transfer fee/goals scored ratio or 4) all of the above.  Also, furthering conspiracy theory talk in the FA draw process, Newcastle get Man City in the next round.

Hope Spring Eternal Until the Well Runs Dry

The minnows generally gave a good accounting of themselves but only Mansfield Town was able to pull off the upset over Burnley.  We're not counting Newcastle over Aston Villa or Wrexham beating Ipswich because those sides are so close in their respective tables.  Burton gave West Ham fits, sending the match into extra time.  The Hammers scored at 95 then had a man sent off at 101; that gave Burton 20+ minutes to get an equalizer but it never happened.  Macclesfield clearly benefited from the home field advantage (i.e. the artificial surface) but it was Brentford that got the own goal game winner.  Wolves and Grimsby Town played 0-0 for a while in the muck (see below) until Wolves slipped in the game winner at at 60 minutes.  Birmingham had plenty of chances but it was Leeds that won the PK shootout.

That's Not What They Mean By Pitch

pitch

 1: a black or dark viscous substance obtained as a residue in the distillation of organic materials and especially tars

Grimsby Town vs Wolves: Some called it a "throwback" but
 mostly it looked like boys playing in the mud (Getty Images)

As in the pitch for the Grimsby Town - Wolves match looked like it was covered in pitch. Seriously, this was one step from being unplayable.  Or maybe it was unplayable.  There were several occasions when the ball simply didn't move after getting stuck in the mud.  Wolves probably deserve some credit here for just playing through the conditions to get a 1-0 win to advance to the 5th round.  It's about the only thing that's going right for them this season.

We Knew Them When

The Birmingham - Leeds match featured Union ex-pats Kai Wagner and Brenden Aaronson.  Both acquitted themselves well I thought.  Wagner did his usual thing of dumping mostly decent crosses into the box and blocked a potential goal in the box with a diving stop.  Leeds had struggled for most of the match and seemed to do better when Aaronson came on at 68 minutes.  Brenden also converted his PK in the shoot out, which Leeds won 4-2.  Aaronson also got in a fairly hefty challenge on Wagner, which earned him a foul but nothing more as seen here.

My Dog Ate My Homework

Leeds keeper Lucas Perri was all set for the PK shoot out with Birmingham, armed with paper that listed the tendencies of the Birmingham shooters.  Alas, it proved useless to him because, as detailed here, he couldn't recognize the players.  He still stopped one of the shots while a second soared over the bar, allowing Leeds to advance.  Also in the category of not using the resources available to you, it appears that Kai Wagner tried to tell his keeper which way Aaronson was going on his PK but as related here, the keeper ignored his advice.

Baku Is Lovely This Time of Year

Anthony Gordon gets the first of four against Qarabag

Well sure it is when you score in the first three minutes and have a 4-0 lead by 33 minutes.  Such was Newcastle's experience as they basically outclassed the Azerbaijani side Qarabag FK in a 6-1 rout in the first leg of their Champions League playoff.  Heading back to Saint James' Park for the second leg with that hefty lead leaves me optimistic that Newcastle will advance to the knockout phase of the competition.  But the Mapgies seem to be able to find a dark cloud behind the silver lining.  Newcastle already had 4-0 lead when Gordon was fouled by the keeper in first half stoppage time.  Now, Gordon is the designated taker of penalty shots but Kieran Trippier was trying to talk Gordon (who already had a hat trick) into letting someone else take the kick.  Gordon did not relent and converted the kick.  That wasn't quite the end of it, as the two had to be separated by teammates as they made their way to the locker room at half time.  Things appeared to be patched up by the end of the match but apparently we can't even enjoy a rout.

Not A Good Scene In Lisbon

Things were not so pleasant in Lisbon, where Real Madrid was taking on Benfica.  This was a scoreless but intriguing match until the 50th minute, when Vinicius Jr launched a laser past the Benfica keeper.  Things degenerated from there.  First, Vini got a yellow card for excessive celebration.  Then, Benfica's Prestianni lifted his shirt to cover his mouth and said something to Vini.  The Brazilian believed it was a racist comment and immediately ran to the referee to notify him.  In response, the ref raised the crossed wrists to indicate that the racist abuse protocol had been initiated.  You can see some of the events here.  The BBC provides more narrative on the incident here.  This looks frustratingly like it will end up as unresolved because it will come down to he said/he said.  All around just bad scene.

Don't Give Up Your Day Job

As Dennis noted a few weeks ago, Defence Force F.C. (the Union's opponent in the first round of CONCACAF Champions Cup) is made up of officers, soldiers and sailors from the Trinidad and Tobago army and coast guard.  I hope they are better at their real jobs because they did not defend on the pitch very well in a 0-5 loss in the first leg of Round One.  Goal scorers for the Union included Iloski, Alladoh, Makhanya and Damiani (2).  As Jeff H notes, pretty good for the first match of the season playing away from home.  I thought it was a good chance for us to get started on learning the new names.  The second leg is next Thursday in Chester.  Forecast says mostly clear skies and 43 degrees at kick-off.

The Weekend and Week

We have match week 27 and the second leg of all the European competition playoff series.

No 7:30 match - that's a good start.  There are three at 10 and our choice is clear - Aston Villa hosting Leeds.  Other choices are Brentford - Brighton or Chelsea - Burnley.  The "feature" 12:30 match, which really can't be called feature because it's not even on TV is West Ham - Bournemouth.  Saturday finishes with a 3 pm match that leaves Magpie fans quaking - a trip to the Etihad to face Man City.  Not going to even bother doing the research, pretty sure that one usually does not work out well for us. Opta has it 57/21 with 22% chance of a draw.

No truth to the rumor that Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will now be
called the House of Tudor now that Igor has been named manager
Photo: Getty/London Standard

Sunday at 9 is crowded with Crystal Palace - Wolves, Sunderland - Fulham or Nottingham Forest - Liverpool.  I like Palace and Wolves but I'm guessing Sunderland - Fulham will be the more competitive game.  The Tudor era begins for Spurs at 11:30 with the North London derby against Arsenal. Even with home field advantage, Opta doesn't give Spurs much of chance (60/19/21 - ouch). The match week concludes with Everton - Man U at 3 on Monday.  

For the European competitions, basically reverse everything from last week.  And there will be the second leg of Union versus the Trinidad and Tobago army.

Really?

C'mon guys, it's 10 degrees with a wind chill below zero and we're still locked in snow and ice that makes venturing outside a risky proposition.  Those were the best games you could offer?  The weather improved mid-week but the games weren't any more thrilling, though at least the results were better.

Blown Lead and Blown Draw

Maybe the neutrals enjoyed the back and forth action at Saint James Park between Newcastle and Brentford but it was no fun for the Geordie fans.  An early header (off his back?) by Botman gave Newcastle a 1-0 lead, arguably against the run of play, in the 24th minute.  The Bees responded well with two goals of their own to take a 2-1 halftime lead that really did feel deserved. A revitalized Newcastle side put Brentford under pressure starting right away in the second half.  That attacking surge was rewarded with a PK converted by Guimaraes in the 79th minute.  Not that a point from this match was all that great but at least they had rescued something. 

Oops, I guess not.  Ouattara grabbed a sneaky goal at 85 minutes and Brentford got all three points.  BFS Goalkeeper Consultant Graham R suggested that this was "not Trippier or Pope's finest moment."  Watch the play here and judge for yourself but I think Graham is correct.

 Dropped points by Newcastle?  Shocking.  How many dropped points does this one count for - 3? 4?.  I think three and Newcastle are back on top of the league with 19 points dropped from winning positions.

This Is All Ya Got?

Newcastle's debacle was a perfect end to a Saturday which included Spurs' 0-2 loss to Man United and Aston Villa's 1-1 draw with Bournemouth.  In the former, Cristian Romero ruined a perfectly good match with a sending off at 29 minutes for a straight red card challenge.  Things had been very lively and evenly matched until then but not so much after that.  Michael Carrick's side needed no heroics for this one as they ran their record to a perfect 4-0-0 under him.  Talk about your new manager bounce.

Aston Villa didn't exactly burst out of the gate but Morgan Rogers did give them the lead at 22 minutes with a blast from inside the box.  Villa never did build on that lead and eventually surrendered the equalizer at 54 minutes. The whole weekend was like that.  The relegation special between Leeds and Nottingham Forest was a 3-1 blowout for the home side; Sean Dyche, if he was not livid, should have been.  Brighton - Crystal Palace played possibly the most boring half of football this season.  Probably just as well I didn't see anything else except Liverpool - Man City, discussed below. 

As Good As It Gets?

So we were down to the last game of Matchweek 25 with nothing to show for it.  But it was Liverpool - Man City so expectations were high.  Alas, for three quarters of the match, we didn't get much, kind of like a heavyweight bout in which they trade a few punches but spend most of the time in a clench.  Fortunately, things got better.  Slowbonzai Slobinside Dominic Dominik delivered this YouTubeableMoment of a free kick at 74 minutes.  Hit with the laces but with his foot coming right to left across the ball, it sliced just inside the post.  And the fun was just beginning.  Bernardo Silva leveled things at 84 minutes. Next, early in stoppage time, Allison committed this foolish challenge that led to a successful Haaland PK.  Real time I thought it was a foul and replay (and VAR) confirmed that.  I'm just surprised he didn't get a yellow as it looked reckless to me.  

Dueling fouls, the ball goes into the net with neither touching it;
 this play should be on next year's ref certification test

There was still a little more fun to be had.  Check out these wild closing seconds of the match. With Allison deep in Man City territory in a vain attempt to snatch an equalizer, Rayan Cherki launched the ball from mid-field towards Liverpool's empty net.  Hilarity ensued.  Szobosly Dominik grabbed Haaland trying to slow him down, then Haaland grabbed Dominik to keep him from directing the ball away from the goal.  The ball went in anyway.  Many minutes later, VAR sorted it all out (correctly both Graham R and I believe).  The goal was waived off because of Haaland's foul on Dominik.  However, now that there was no goal, the referee could then send off Dominik for DOGSO.  Restart is a direct free kick from where Haaland was fouled.  So, a 2-1 final it was.

Mid-week "Thaw"

Jacob Ramsey gets the game winner for Newcastle at Spurs;
his transfer fee/goals is now $54m/1
Photo: Richard Pelham Getty Images

Newcastle didn't exactly shine but still got a 2-1 win at Spurs on Tuesday.  That was good news for Eddie Howe but not so much for Thomas Frank (see below).  Much the same for Aston Villa as they hardly impressed in getting a 1-0 win over Brighton at home thanks to an own goal.  Michael Carrick's record is no longer perfect but Man United did get another stoppage time goal to rescue a 1-1 draw with West Ham.  I saw the last 30 minutes or so of Liverpool's unremarkable 1-0 win over Sunderland.   Nottingham Forest and Wolves played to a 0-0 draw in which Forest got off  35 futile shots (eight on target); that got Sean Dyche sacked but in interviews after the firing, he was not livid.  Leeds grabbed an unexpected point from Chelsea with a 2-2 draw. I didn't get to see the Brentford - Arsenal 1-1 draw so I don't know if that was a decent match.  I'm sure Man City, Aston Villa and others appreciated that outcome.

Conversation That Absolutely Took Place

Michael (before Spurs - Newcastle kickoff): It's a shame someone has to win this match.

Steve: More like a crime...

More Sacking

As noted above, Thomas Frank and Sean Dyche got their walking papers this week.  I've noted in recent weeks how depleted Spurs have been with injuries.  I've read complaints about Spurs style of play or lack thereof.  I will note that last year they scored 64 and allowed 65 goals.  This year they are on pace to score 53 and allow 54.  What might you expect to happen to goal scoring when you lose Maddison and Kulusevski for the season and miss Richarlison for large chunks of time?  I've also read about issues with internal dynamics so maybe there's more to the story.  

The Dyche sacking makes absolutely no sense to me.  Neither does hearing that his likely replacement is Vitor Pereira, who was let go by Wolves back in November after losing eight and drawing two in their first 10 matches.  He will be Forest's fourth manager this season.  Forest were 6-4-8 in league play under Dyche, an average of 1.22 points per game.  That's compared to five points in eight games to start the season.  So owner Evangelos Marinakis has fired two of my favorite managers this year in Santo and Dyche; Nottingham Forest are dead to me.

Just for fun, here's a table listing managers for each club since 8/1/20, not counting caretaker managers.

Anything obvious stick out to you?

No EPL? No Worries

Friday through Monday is the 4th Round of the FA Cup.  Easily the most interesting fixture is Aston Villa - Newcastle at 12:45 on Saturday.  Intriguing in its own way is Wrexham - Ipswich at 2:45 on Friday.  The full schedule is here.  Dennis and I still think there's a conspiracy as Arsenal get Wigan (difference of 66 places) and Man City get Salford City (a difference of 72 places) while Aston Villa and Newcastle square off in this round (a difference of 7 places).  

Champions League has the first leg of playoff matches to determine the last eight to get to the knockout phase.  Newcastle are the only EPL side in that one, facing Grabbag Qarabag on Wednesday at 12:45.  In Europa Cup action, Nottingham Forest will take on Fenerbahce in the first leg of their playoff to advance to the knockout stage of that competition.  And Crystal Palace will face Zrinjski in their playoff to advance in Europa Conference action.

Three More Annoying Things About the Winter Olympics

1) All EPL matches are on Peacock, which you can't DVR.  At least their replays are posted timely.

2) Rebecca Lowe is taken off EPL duty to be the daytime host of NBC's coverage

3) Skeleton - Okay we'll have one sled race where you go feet first and then another in which you go head first.  The 2028 Summer Games should include the backwards 100 meter dash.

Bad Losses and Worse Losses

This was a week in which we discovered that Newcastle are probably not top six material and Aston Villa are probably not legitimate title contenders.  Also, Newcastle's already infinitesimally small chances for a quad dropped to zero with a Carabao Cup semi-final loss to Man City.

Liverpool Are Doing Fine, Thank You Very Much

With Ekitike, why the heck did Liverpool need to take Isak?
Photo: Getty Images

Turns out the concern we expressed for Liverpool in last week's post was very much misplaced, as witnessed by their 4-1 dismantling of Newcastle on Saturday.  The first 30 minutes or so were pretty good, with Newcastle having the run of play and eventually taking the lead with Gordon's goal.  It was pretty much downhill from there.  Ekitike levelled things at 41 minutes, then gave Liverpool the lead with another just two minutes later.  The rest of the match felt like "we're Liverpool and you're not."  Newcastle managed just two shots on goal and recorded an xG of .38.  So this wasn't even a matter of poor finishing, they just didn't generate the chances.  So we're down to 11th in the table.

You Think That's Bad?

Losing to Liverpool at Anfield wasn't fun but Aston Villa had an even worse weekend.  They were facing Brentford at home and got the added advantage of going a man up at 42 minutes thanks to Kevin Schade kicking Cash in the groin (remember that just because you got the ball doesn't mean it's not a foul).  So, of course, Brentford snuck one past Martinez late in the first half stoppage time and that  meant they were set up to park the bus.  Villa had 25 shots and an xG of 1.90 (maybe reflecting that they had just four shots on target?) but never broke through.  Well, that's not completely true, as they had a goal pulled back after VAR suggested the ball had gone out during the build up (more on that below).  It's easy to pin the loss on the injuries or the bad call but Dennis points out that 1) Villa have historically not done well up a man and 2) they don't do well against a parked bus.  Back-to-back home losses to Everton and Brentford diminish their title hopes.

Proper Use of VAR?

The ball looks out on this view

So the equalizing goal by Tammy Abraham was ruled out because VAR said the ball had gone out in the "buildup" to the goal.  You can see a longish view of the play here.  Looking on-line I see a lot of complaints about the call being unfair but haven't found any debate about the bigger issues the play raised.

Let's get one point out of the way.  A video available the next day shows that it's about 99.99999% likely the ball was out.  The picture left is a still from that video. Unfortunately, that's not really the point.

The videos we saw live, which we believe were the same available to the VAR crew didn't show anything anywhere near as clear as this.  How could you possibly view anything we saw as "conclusive" (looking at you Jamie Carragher)?  Second point is that the goal came 19 seconds after this incident; is that a reasonable time frame for a look back?  The review took almost four minutes, again suggesting that this was not a clear and obvious error.  And, regardless of what the video released on Monday shows, if this was not available to the VAR crew, it is irrelevant.  

One point that I will concede is that there is no way the AR had any idea of whether that ball was in or out.  You can clearly see that Leon Bailey is completely obstructing the AR's line of vision.  So, the AR and Tim Robinson were guessing when they made the on-field decision.  I suppose a second point in favor of the VAR is that even though this preceded the goal by 19 seconds, it was the play that gave Villa possession and the chance to go down the field and score.  

For me, I think it was a misuse of VAR.  But what do I know, I only got a 96 on my referee recertification test.  Dennis notes that this is down from last year's 98 and could be a sign of aging.  At this rate of decline, I will fail to get the required 80% when I'm 79.

Leads Are Like Rental Car Reservations

There are two parts - taking them and holding them.  As Jerry Seinfeld notes holding them is the more important part.  I was reminded of that difference this weekend as six sides took leads that they were unable to hold.  Some of the comebacks were more spectacular than others.  

West Ham's collapse at Stamford Bridge probably leads the way.  The Hammers were up 2-0 by 36 minutes.  Then it slowly fell apart.  Goals by Pedro and Cucaracha Cucurella leveled things by 70 minutes.  The unkindest cut of all was when Enzo Fernandez "hammered" the game winner past Areola at 90+2.  You can see the play here.

Man United collapsed at home to Fulham but ending up rescuing things with a late goal.  Up 2-0, the Red Devils surrendered goals at 85 and 90+1 and looked to have dropped two sure points. Benjamin Sesko rescued those points with this nifty piece of work in the box at 90+4.  So Carrick continues his perfect record.

Speaking of blowing two-goal leads, Man City coughed up such an advantage at Tottenham.  Check out Solanke's equalizer (his second of the match) at 70 minutes, an easy pick for this week's YouTubeableMoment (it's called a "scorpion" kick).  VAR had another interesting moment in deciding that Solanke did not foul Guehi in the process of scoring the first goal.  I thought maybe yes but maybe on this one they really did observe the "clear and obvious" threshold.

Other blown leads include Newcastle (Liverpool), Nottingham Forest (to Crystal Palace) and Brighton (to Everton at 90+7 - ouch). 

Quad Is Dead

Newcastle came to the Etihad for the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final against Man City with an 0-2 deficit.  They promptly turned it into an 0-5 deficit within the first 32 minutes.  Yes, it was a frustrating defensive display.  Equally as frustrating was their utter inability to put away good scoring chances. The xG says it was only 1.34 but it looked way higher than that to me.  Adding injury to insult, Gordon left the match with a possible hamstring injury.  But otherwise it went well.

Until that point, Newcastle were technically in the running for the quad (EPL, FA Cup, Champions League and Caraboa Cup).  The 1-5 loss on aggregate puts that nonsense to bed.

Caraboring Cup

The second leg of the Arsenal - Chelsea semi-final won the award for this week's match to nap to.  They managed two shots on target each while putting up a combined xG of 2.05. Arsenal came in with a 3-2 lead so they had no reason to force the issue.  I would have expected more of an attack from Chelsea though.  Pretty sure I had drifted off by the time Havertz scored for Arsenal at 90+7 to salt away the 4-2 aggregate win.

February Football

Didn't notice this last week but there are just three days in February (5th, 9th and 20th) without EPL, FA Cup, Carabao Cup, Champions League, Europa Cup or Europa Conference League action.

EPL Matchweek 25 gets an early start on Friday with a relegation special featuring Leeds versus Nottingham Forest.  Currently 16th and 17th respectively, both sides will have a keen interest in putting more space between them and 18th place.

There is the annoying 7:30 Saturday morning fixture but at least it's interesting with Spurs heading to Old Trafford to face Man United; hmm, one side enjoying a new manager bounce and another possibly ready to bounce their new manager. The 10 am slot is packed with five fixtures.  We'll go with Bournemouth - Aston Villa to see if the Villans can bounce back from last week's disappointing performance.  Relegation followers might choose Burnley - West Ham.  Masochists might go with Wolves - Chelsea or Arsenal - Sunderland; they reek of a blowout.  Fulham - Everton might not be too bad; they are level on points, sitting 9th and 10th in the table.

The feature 12:30 match is a pretty good one with Newcastle hosting Brentford.  Opta has the Magpies as a solid favorite at home (49/25/26) but that feels high to me, given the injury list.  Guimaraes is a maybe, a troubling development give that Newcastle have not won any of the 12 EPL matches in which he didn't start.  

Sunday's schedule is very light but interesting.  At 9 am we have Brighton versus Crystal Palace, two sides separated by just two points.  Even better is the 11:30 fixture of Liverpool - Man City.  The Reds are favored at home but not by much.

In place of European competitions, we have EPL Matchweek 26 played out over Tuesday to Thursday.  Tuesday we're locked into Spurs - Newcastle and that's probably the best choice for neutrals too.  Wednesday's choice is not obvious.  We'll probably go with Aston Villa - Brighton but the relegation-relevant contest of Nottingham Forest - Wolves has some attraction.  Thursday there's only Brentford - Arsenal.

Coming Attractions

I mentioned February is jam packed.  Wait, I think I'm required to say the matches are coming thick and fast.  We have:

- Champions League Playoffs are 2/17-18 and 2/24-25

- Europa Cup Playoffs are 2/19 and 2/26

- Conference League Playoff are 2/19 and 2/26

- FA Cup 4th Round 2/13-16

Also putting a reminder here that the Union start CONCACAF Champions League play on 2/18 with a first round match vs Defence Force (a Trinidadian and Toboggan club); the second leg is at Subaru Park on 2/26.  I loves me soccer in Philly in February.  Presumably the pitch will be snow and ice free by then.