And, We're Back

Took in a few friendlies and some Nations League action but otherwise a quiet week.  We didn't have any club games either.  Footballless Saturdays are not a pretty sight.

We have regularly mocked the Nations League concept as a vehicle to glorify what are still basically friendlies.  Having watched a few more, I will say that the lineups and the effort seems more "honest" than the old friendlies so maybe it's not a terrible idea.

Guadalajara Won't Do (apologies to Steely Dan)

Pochettino: Remind me why I took this job?
Photo:Eduardo Verdugo/AP

So what did we learn from the two USMNT friendlies vs Panama (2-0) and Mexico (0-2)?  Mostly that Pochettino has his work cut out for him.  Against Panama they were inconsistent but did have a couple of moments of clinical finishing, like this YouTubeableMoment from Yunus Musah.  Great work from Robinson to get the ball off the touch line to Pulisic, who then executed a textbook give-and-go with Aaronson before Pulisic put the cross right on Musah's foot.  But overall, not that great a performance against the 37th ranked side.

The picture from Guadalajara was worse, where the Yanks were fairly well dominated by the home side.  Maybe they missed Pulisic, who was rested for load management, but not sure how much he could have helped in this situation.

Certainly after just two matches, it's way too early to make any judgments about the long-term future here.  Pochettino is a smart guy.  What worries me though is that there are no transfer windows in international football.  He will have to work with the talent the country has produced.

Last Chance

As we noted last week, the Union's playoff bid  requires that they beat Cincinnati at home while one of DC United (vs Charlotte at home) or Montreal (vs NYCFC at home) lose.  Well, technically, if Atlanta win, they can't win by more than 13 goals more than the Union win.   For simplicity of the following exercise, I'm going to assume that this won't happen.  If it does, you can blame me.

I had suggested that the chances of making the playoffs were probably less than 20 percent.  What I did not expect was that Opta would have the Union with a 46.8% chance of winning against Cincy.  That seems incredibly optimistic to me.  However, it does line up well with the betting lines, most of which have the U odds of winning at over 50%.  I can't identify what's driving those numbers.  Thinking Cincy won't care because they finish third regardless of the result?  Their recent poor run of form (lost three straight, no wins in last four)?  Injuries?   

Anyway, when I take the Opta odds for the three matches (DC at 37.1% to lose and Montreal at 39.8% to lose), I get the Union with a 28.94% chance of making the playoffs. Like I said, that is way better than I was expecting.  Dennis F did review the spreadsheet.  Though not a CPA he did hedge just like a real one, noting that assuming I correctly identified the scenarios in which the Union advance and that I correctly transcribed the numbers from Opta, my spreadsheet was correct.  So it was really a compilation opinion rather than an audit.

Atlanta, with whom we are currently tied, has almost the same scenario except with the added requirement that the Union not win against Cincinnati OR both Montreal and DC have to lose.  That last scenario would have four teams finishing 10-14-10 for 40 points but the Union and Atlanta would qualify based on goal differential.  I ain't doin' that spreadsheet.

London Calling (apologies to The Clash)

Michael, Don, Steve, Graham, and Charlie - aka the
"Five Men from USA" - are heading back to England for more football

It's official.  After eight long years, the "Five Men From the USA" are returning to England. This will be an abbreviated trip of less than a week and we probably won't get out of London.  Saturday morning looks like Spurs - Newcastle, Sunday will be Fulham vs Ipswich at Craven Cottage and Monday we'll see Queen's Park Rangers take on Luton Town at Loftus Road.  That latter fixture is in the Championship division; we decided against a two-hour train ride to Wolverhampton to see Wolves - Nottingham Forest.  Besides, QPR and Loftus Road have a rich history.  The personnel (see picture) are the same and we're hoping we get the same welcoming reception we got in 2016.  And, since we won't need a rental car, no one will have to drive on the wrong side of the road - or incur a "congestion charge" for driving in the wrong place at the wrong time.

When Kevin Hart Was David Beckham

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this clip of Kevin Hart getting into character by shadowing David Beckham.  Don't tell anyone but it's an ad for H&M clothing.

The Week

A weekend with mismatches but also some intriguing stuff.  In theory the marquee match of the week should be Liverpool - Chelsea (Sunday 11:30 on USA). Except, off of recent form, maybe not.  Indeed, Opta has Liverpool at 59% and Chelsea at just 19%.  That doesn't sound all that exciting.

Things kick off at 7:30 Saturday with a London derby between Tottenham and West Ham.  Neither side have been living up to expectations but figure Spurs at home should be up to the task here.  The 10 am matches present some great choices.  We will of course take in Newcastle vs Brighton at St. James' Park; those two sides are level on points but maybe the home field advantage will be enough for the Magpies to get a point or three.  USA thinks that's the best choice as well.  But, Fulham hosting Aston Villa could be a good watch too. Opta actually has the Cottagers favored but I think that's just the home field advantage; after the sloppy/sleepy 0-0 draw with Man United, I'm looking for Villa to be tough here. Southampton - Leicester and Ipswich - Everton are important clashes for those relegation don't wannabes.  The only 10 am match maybe to skip is Man United - Brentford, although recent form there hints at something closer than you'd expect.

The "feature" NBC match is Arsenal at Bournemouth, which doesn't sound all that great.  Sunday morning, before the Liverpool - Chelsea contest, you can watch Wolves - Man City (9 am USA) , which also doesn't sound that great.  The match week concludes with Nottingham Forest - Crystal Palace on Monday at 3 pm (USA); Forest have lost just once so far while Palace are still winless.

But wait, there's more.  Champions League has Matchday 3 of 8 running on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tuesday we will definitely be watching Aston Villa - Bologna, though we note that Arsenal will face Shakhtar Donetsk at the same time.  On Wednesday our choice is likely RB Leipzig - Liverpool over Man City - Sparta Praha.

Still not done.  Europa Cup action has Man United at Fenerbahce and Tottenham hosting AZ Alkmaar, both at 3 pm on Thursday.  

Are we there yet?  No.  There's also Europa Conference League action with Chelsea at Spanakopita   Panathinaikos, Thursday at 12:45.  Wait, that means we can watch Chelsea, then Spurs?

Taking a sneak peek ahead, Leicester play Nottingham Forest next Friday so we have football every day this week.  

As for MLS, all the Eastern Conference matches start at 6 pm on Saturday, with the Western Conference games kicking off at 9 pm.  They call it Decision Day.  Looks like every match is double paywalled behind an Apple subscription and a Season Pass.  But, but, you can see any match you want.  It's so much better.  In any case, I'm not going to be the guy streaming Union soccer at my 50th high school reunion so I won't see it anyway.  

About the only thing I won't see if the week goes well.