Results Over Performance Only Works So Many Times

Newcastle's mantra had been we may not be pretty but we get results.  Yeah, how'd that work out this week?  Other BFS sides fared much better.

Loaf A Half

For the second straight week, Newcastle sleepwalked through the opening 45 minutes.  This time - against Fulham -  it cost them an 0-2 halftime deficit.  Barnes got one back right after the break but the Magpies never found the equalizer and a stoppage time goal made the final 1-3.  Newcastle could have no complaints about the scoreline.  

Gordon thinking "damn we're not as good at we thought"
Getty Images

Multiple sets of fingerprints were found at the crime scene.  Joelinton's give away and tepid response set up the first goal.  Schar probably could have closed Jiminez down better on that first goal plus he missed a golden opportunity to level things in the second half.  Nick Pope should have stopped Fulham's second goal.  Anthony Gordon displayed incredibly poor body language every time things did not work out as he wanted, which was often.  Bruno Guimaraes put the ball on a platter for the third goal; ironically this came after a morning reffing U12 games and listening to coaches plead with their kids not to clear the ball to the middle.  

This match exposed Newcastle as the team I thought they were - a side with talent but also some holes and a penchant for inconsistency.  Generously, we will call them a work in progress.

Talking Points Good and Bad

Much to digest from the 2-2 draw between Man City and Arsenal.  The quick takeaway is that City rescued the point with a 98th minute goal from John Stones against a 10-man Arsenal side.  But a lot of water had passed under the bridge before that moment.  Haaland put City up early with his 100th goal for the club, in just 105 appearances.  Calafiori leveled it shortly thereafter with a beautiful shot but the goal was not without controversy.  With play stopped for an Arsenal free kick, Michael Oliver called Kyle Walker, as team captain, over to discuss something.  As Walker started to retreat back to a logical defensive position, Partey quickly took the kick to Martinelli who passed to Calafiori who deposited it in the back of the net. Not to take anything away from the strike, which you can see here, Man City protested vigorously that Oliver should not have allowed the kick to be taken so quickly.  For my money, they have a point; once Oliver has called Walker over, this has to be what they call a "ceremonial" restart (i.e. you can't take the kick until the ref blows the whistle).  On the other hand, Walker would have gotten back faster if he hadn't raised his arm to complain (for offside - which it wasn't - or for the quick kick); also, he was essentially in position to defend against Martinelli's pass.  As we found out earlier this year, VAR cannot intervene on restarts.

Arsenal took the lead late in the first half but that goal had some controversy as well; was Ederson fouled on the play or was he simply out-positioned by Arsenal attackers?  I saw it as the latter and so did VAR.  But we weren't done with first half talking points.  As the half wound down, Trossard (already on a yellow) barged into the back of Silva.  Oliver quickly whistled for the foul (which it was) and almost immediately showed Trossard a second yellow, then the requisite red.  The timing led us to believe the card was for a reckless challenge, which looked like a harsh decision, but we were later told it was for delay of game for kicking the ball away.  There was some question as to whether the story changed to make the call more palatable.  Gooner fans see it as a continuation of the league conspiracy against them.  There is some question about the consistency with which this yellow for delay of game is being displayed but my advice to the players is stop doing it and you won't get called.

The sending off did ruin the second half, as Arsenal could do little but bunker in.  They did defend gamely but Stones got the late equalizer for City.  But the "fun" was still not over.  As seen here, Haaland took the ball out of the net and "threw" it at the back of Gabriel's head.  Very classy.  He appears to have escaped any punishment as the VAR was probably reluctant to conclude that it was thrown with excessive force and by rule couldn't intervene to suggest Oliver show him a yellow card.  Still a dick move.  

For me, a draw between the light blue fascists and the red fascists was okay.

Meanwhile...

Random observations on the other results.

- As we suggested, Man United found that Crystal Palace at home is no walk in the (Selhurst) park.  Maybe they deserved better but all they got was a 0-0 draw.

- Everton are no longer pointless after a 1-1 draw at Leicester.  Also, looks like there is an agreement to transfer ownership to the Friedkin Group.  That could be bad news for Sean Dyche.

- Undefeated sides Brighton and Nottingham Forest remain unbeaten after a riveting, back-and-forth 2-2 draw.

- Aston Villa are quietly cementing their position as a top four side; this week they calmly recovered from a 0-1 deficit with a second half comeback 3-1 win.  Watkins and Duran were on the scoresheet again, both assisted by Rogers.

This Week in Refereeing - Even Jesus Was Shown A Yellow Card

By my count, the EPL broke last week's record total of yellow cards (not counting coaches), ending up with 66 this week.  Notably, Anthony Taylor was not the referee for any of the matches and Newcastle didn't get any yellows - the only team to escape with none this weekend.  I have not seen any articles on this, which may be partly due to how the EPL seems to count cards.  There were two players sent off for second yellows this weekend and it appears that those show in the stats as two red cards but no yellows.  That would lower the count to 62, which still seems noteworthy to me as it would have broken the old record.  

Apparently attempted murder only gets you a yellow
Martinez flies in on Kamada (photo: BBC)

We already highlighted Michael Oliver's fun day at The Etihad.  Note that the Key Match Incident
(KMI) panel agreed with the call on Trossard, though not unanimously.   Lisandro Martinez somehow escaped a red card for a full-blooded, two-footed challenge on Palace's Kamada.  I couldn't find a good video but the picture gives you some idea how ridiculous it was.  Martinez was given a yellow.  The KMI unaminously backed the referee and the VAR on this one.  For me, this is in the same category as why is the punishment different for murder and attempted murder; intent is the same, it's just that in the latter case you failed.  

I don't remember specific cases but both Dennis and I noticed that the supposed higher threshold for VAR interventions is resulting in fewer overturned calls.  As Dennis put it "now we can get back to our roots of just criticizing the center ref."

Always One Game Away From A Crisis

That was the announcer's assessment of Man United as they faced FC Twente in their Europa Cup opener.  I think it's more accurately always one goal away from a crisis.  Despite pushing the visitors all over the pitch, the Red Devils were unable to add to their early 1-0 lead.  Eventually they paid for it as Twente got the equalizer at 68 minutes.  Man United did have some good chances in closing but never got the game winner.  Fortunately for them, the new format which mirrors the Champions League approach is probably more forgiving of a misstep like this in the opener. 

Tottenham on the other hand made lemonade out of lemons.  As explained here, the requirement that there be eight home grown players on the roster meant that Spurs could only name 23 players and had to leave Reguilon and Spence out.  Then, Ragu Dragusin got himself sent off for DOGSO in the 7th minute.  None of this seemed to rattle Spurs, who calmly went out and beat the Azerbaijan club Qarabag FK 3-0.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve (late in the Man United - Twente match level at 1-1):  Here's my hierarchy for the result

    1) Twente win on a Maguire mistake

    2) Twente win

    3) Twente draw

    4) Twente lose but Fernandes is not the goal scorer

Dennis: This late in the match, probably can't have 2) without 1)

Apologies to Jeff H.

Still Too Early To Caraboa It

This week was the third round and people might notice that I didn't even mention it in last week's post.  Newcastle did not play because the pitch at AFC Wimbledon was basically ruined; they will play next week.  Several EPL squads crashed out in this round, though mostly they lost to other EPL sides.  Fulham lost 15-16 on PKs to Preston while Everton (Southampton), Wolves (Brighton) and West Ham (Liverpool) also bailed out.  Round of 16 matches are all on Tuesday October 29.  

Head Above Water

Sullivan's two assists give him 10 for the year
Caean Couto-Imagn Images

Weeks of treading water paid off as the Union's dominating 4-0 win over DC United finally put them back in a playoff position.  This was pretty much a total beat-down and the score fully reflects what happened on the pitch (i.e. not like the luckier win over NYCFC).  A quick double from Uhre (whose scoring form is improving) and Gazdag had Philly up 2-0 by 16 minutes.  Baribo (yeah, him again) made the margin 3-0 early in the second half.  Check out the work of Quinn Sullivan to set up the goal and Baribo's textbook header form in this week's YouTubeableMoment; this might have been Sullivan's best game as he was a constant offensive threat and deservedly came away with two assists.

The good news is that the U now hold the last playoff spot but the bad news is how tenuous that hold is.  There are four teams below them within three points.  The remaining schedule has pluses and minuses.  We finish with Atlanta, Orlando, Columbus and Cincinnati so that's not great.  But at least the chase pack has some matches among themselves so there will be dropped points along the way.  

Don't Blink

The next week is a veritable blizzard of action, with a full slate of EPL and MLS matches over the weekend, an extra full MLS match week on Wednesday, Champions League on Tuesday/Wednesday, Europa Cup on Thursday and Europa Conference League on Wednesday and Thurday.  

Ominously, the whole thing kicks off at 7:30 Saturday morning with Newcastle hosting Man City on USA.  Not counting a League Cup win, you have to go back to Jnauary 2019 to find the last Magpie win over the Citizens.  I can find no reason to think this time will be different; I'm surprised Opta has it at only 56% for City.

There are five choices at 10 am.  The USA option is a London derby between Brentford and West Ham, which might be decent.  I'd go with Everton - Crystal Palace as the most competitive, though Nottingham Forest - Fulham will likely be pretty good too.  Arsenal - Leicester looks like a blowout and Chelsea look poised to pin a first defeat on Brighton. The 12:30 feature match (on USA as NBC goes for President's Cup golf over soccer) doesn't look all that great either with Wolves hosting Liverpool

Two games on Sunday, both on USA.  At 9 we have Ipswich - Aston Villa; Opta has Villa at 49% for the win - a little lower than I expected - so they're saying there's still a chance for the Tractor Boys.  Looking forward to the second match at 11:30 with Man United playing Tottenham at Old Trafford.  United are a slight favorite at Opta but I think Spurs will be tough opponent.  To make sure we don't have a day off, there's a Monday match with Bournemouth - Southampton; that's 3 pm on USA.

We will be at Subaru Park Saturday night (on TV behind double Apple pay wall) for the critical Union match against Atlanta. Like last week, I tried to frame this as must-not-lose but it's really must-win, given the three games after this.  Montreal and Nashville have easier contests against San Jose and New England respectively.  Not so much for DC United as they must face Columbus.  Eighth place Toronto get Chicago.

The Wednesday slate is a mixed bag as well.  The Union have a tough away match against Orlando.  The chase pack has to play each other with Atlanta facing Montreal and Nashville hosting DC United.

Busy mid-week in Europe.  EPL participants in the Champions League include Man City at Slovan Bratislava, Arsenal hosting PSG onTuesday,  Aston Villa entertaining Bayern on Wednesday and Liverpool vs Bologna at Anfield on Wednesday.  The Europa Cup action on Thursday includes Spurs at Ferencvaros and Man United at Porto. The Europa Conference League participant is Chelsea, who host Ghent on Thursday.

This is seriously going to test my stamina.

Have You Tried Being Luckier?

Plenty of action this week, including the favorite of semi-retired and work-from-home people - midweek Champions League action.  Newcastle and the Union both had moments where being lucky was more important than being good.

Wolves Forget To Close The "Barnes" Door

Except for maybe the opening 10 minutes, Wolves were easily the better side in the first half at Molineux and fully deserved the 1-0 lead over Newcastle.  By all accounts, Eddie Howe lit into the squad in his halftime talk (see treatment, hair dryer).  He also made some pointed tactical substitutions, swapping out Longstaff for Tonali and Barnes for Joe L. Linton.  The changes did ramp up the intensity of the Magpies' effort but they were still short on creativity in the final third.

Schar: You cannot score if you do not shoot (Getty Images)

So Fabian Schar decided to take matters into his own feet.  He launched an audacious shot from 30 yards out that deflected off of Craig Dawson and into the goal. Schar explained his thinking here in a post-match interview.  Possibly emboldened by his teammate, Harvey Barnes decided to have a go from about 25 yards out.  His shot, only slightly less audacious, was this high quality curler that needed no help from Wolves' defenders to go in.  Arguably, the Wolves should have done a better job closing Barnes down but he did make the most of the space they gave him.  So Newcastle grabbed all three points after looking like they'd come home with none.

Hopefully, they don't read too much into this great early start - 10 points from four matches.  The offense is just not all that potent right now.  A couple of late unconverted late chances made the xG against Wolves look reasonable for the result (1.43-1.24) but for long stretches you wondered how they would ever score.  Also, one could have looked at the first four fixtures (Southampton, Bournemouth, Spurs and Wolves) and concluded that 10 points was not an unreasonable expectation.  As in, I'd say the jury is still out on this team.

 

Exception To The Two-Goal Lead Rule

As you know, BFS does not buy into the idea that a two-goal lead is the most dangerous in soccer; a one-goal lead is.  However, we are considering something called the Everton Exception after watching the Toffees snatch consecutive 2-3 defeats after building a two-goal cushion.  Their latest folly was against Aston Villa.  Goals by Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin had Everton up 2-0 by the 27th minute.  Villa tend not to be rattled by deficits anyway and this was Everton so there was no reason to think this was a lost cause.  Sure enough, Ollie Watkins got things level with goals at 36 and 58 minutes.  Tell me that brace didn't go a long way to calming fears about his scoring prowess.  The comeback was completed in the 76th minute with this YouTubeableMoment of a goal from Jhon Duran.  Three minutes before the goal, Dennis had texted me that manager Unai Emery had said earlier this week that he expects Duran to be one of the best strikers in the world within 12 months.  I could only respond "I guess it wasn't hyperbole."

North London Dullby

The Spurs 0-1 loss to Arsenal was disappointing, at least to the neutrals and Spurs fans.  For two teams that supposedly hate each other, that was remarkably tepid.  Biggest surprise for me was the lack of an intense response from Spurs after they went down 0-1.  As Dennis put it "put the ball in the goddamn box."  

In other news, Michael B announced that he no longer follows the EPL and quickly fled the country after the final whistle.  He is pursuing a career on the senior cycling tour in Italy.

We Got Your Homefield Advantage Right Here

Well we certainly oversold the home field advantage this weekend.  After noting that the 10 am matches looked like walkovers for the home sides, only one (Man City over Brentford) managed to get all three points.  Brighton drew 0-0 with Ipswich.  Didn't see it but that one reads like must-miss TV.  The Seagulls dominated the stats but couldn't score and there were 30 fouls between the two sides.  This is not my beautiful game.  Crystal Palace rescued a 2-2 draw with Leicester on a stoppage time goal.  Fulham probably weren't too dismayed with a 1-1 draw with West Ham.  But at least those three got draws.  Liverpool crashed out Anfield 0-1 to Nottingham Forest (that's undefeated Forest to you); my guess is that maybe they did walk alone after that one. You can see the game winner from Callum Hudson-Odoi here.  On any other weekend, he might have gotten the YouTubeableMoment but he's third behind Duran and Barnes; also he got a two-tenths deduction for an incomplete celebratory slide.

All those who had Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle, Brighton and Nottingham Forest as the unbeaten sides after four weeks, raise your hands.  Yeah, sure you did.

If They Can Make It There...(apologies to Frank Sinatra)

They might be able to make the playoffs. After a somewhat frustrating 1-3 loss in Miami, the Union came up really big in the city that never sleeps at the stadium that should never be used for soccer.  Ironically, both the Miami score and the 5-1 win over NYCFC are misleading.  Against Miami, Messi's brace negated Uhre's early goal so it was 1-2 for most of the match before Suarez got a stoppage time goal to pad the margin.  But the U had more shots, more shots on target and a better xG (2.3-1.4); this was a surprisingly close contest.

Baribo scores again

In NY, they were outshot and out xGed (3.1- 2.4) but took advantage of every NYCFC miscue (and
there were several) to fashion a 3-1 lead by halftime.  City then proceeded hit the woodwork or flat out miss golden chances while the Union added two more in the second half. Not every goal was pretty but this one by Glesnes off a Wagner corner was pretty good.

So this one easily could have been a draw too.  But math tells us that a win beats two draws (0+3>1+1) and we are fine with the results.  Even though Atlanta picked up an unexpected point in Miami, this win catapulted the Union into 9th place (albeit on goal differential), the final playoff spot.  However, nothing is solid here with DC level on points, Atlanta and Nashville just one behind and Montreal only two back.  This Sunday at home vs DC United is huge.

This Week in Refereeing

1) Consider this scenario.  White team takes a corner kick that goes directly to a blue defender in the box, who deliberately takes a shot on his own goal.  Blue keeper makes a save but white score on the rebound.  After the ball goes into the goal, the blue defender then punches the blue keeper.  What is the correct call?

a) Goal counts, red card for the blue defender, restart with a kickoff for blue

b) Quit this league because it is totally nuts

c) Suspend the match because the blue team forgot to reserve the field and a U12 tryout takes over the pitch

d) Proceed to the nearest bar and discuss the incident over pitchers of beer                       

e) Both b) and d)

Though a) is the technically correct call, turns out c) was what actually happened.  I could make a strong argument for b), d) or e) though.  Not giving away too much but the guy's name who took the corner for white rhymes with "tennis."

2) I got to call a U12 player for holding when he grabbed an opponents shirt in the box. Teach 'em early as Dennis says.  It sort of played out in slow motion in my head.  The shirt pull happened right in front of me but it took a few seconds to blow the whistle.  I say that's holding on red.  Then I look down and notice the foul occurred in the box.  So I announce it's a PK.  My co-ref (two man crew for this match) said it was interesting watching the call unfold.  

Taylor must be thinking "I'm going to get a lot of shit for this"
Image: Catherine Ivill/AMA)

3) The EPL set a bunch of records related to yellow cards.  Anthony Taylor doled out 14 cards in the Bournemouth Chelsea match, which breaks the old record of 12 set only last September.  Note that the count is really 16, as two coaches were cautioned as well.  By my count, there were 51 yellows issued in the eight matches on Saturday.  As far as I can tell, that breaks the previous one day record of 44, also set last year.  For the match week, there were 65 cards across the 10 matches, which also breaks the previous record of 57.    I saw a bunch of them and have a sense that the jump is due to reduced tolerance of shithousery.   

As noted here, some pundits are racing to the fainting couch.  Also, Anthony Taylor is taking incredible abuse on social media.  Enough abuse that he will only work as a fourth official this weekend; to be clear, I believe this is about safety concerns as opposed to a reprimand for his performance.  If I were omnipotent, I would send anyone who posted abuse or threats to a deserted island for the next version of Survivor: Mole People Who Shouldn't Be Allowed Near a Computer.

Oy, where to start?  The EPL said they wanted to crack down on the shithousery so Taylor was refereeing as directed.  If you have a problem with this, your beef is with the league, not the referees.  Second, there is a simple solution to the "excessive" number of yellow cards and that is for the players to stop being dicks out there.  This kind of bullshit has been tolerated for so long that it may take some time for players to adjust but to stop the campaign to cut this crap out now would be sending a mixed message.  Do you want it to stop or not?

4) Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis - Equal shirt pulling means no shirt pulling?

Steve - Please, the correct term used by VARs is "mutual engagement"

Champions League

With the new format of eight league play matches instead of six and no groups but one unified table, each match isn't quite as critical as before; as in a opening day loss in your group could mean you'd be scrambling through the rest of the group stage.  For the EPL sides, this wasn't a problem as all four managed to get results.  Aston Villa handled the Young Boys 3-0 (maybe rephrase that?), Liverpool fell behind to AC Milan but ralled for a 3-1 win, Man City could only manage a 1-1 draw with Inter and Arsenal drew 0-0 with Atalanta.  They have a week off and return for matchday 2 on 10/1 or 10/2.

Keep It Coming

Reffing and a lot of Peacock are going to make this weekend's viewing tough and unfortunately, it's an intriguing set of fixtures.

Easy choice for the match of the weekend - Man City hosting Arsenal at 11:30 on Sunday (USA).  Opta does not see this as particularly close, putting City's chances of a win at 52% compared to 23% for Arsenal (25% chance of draw).  

Yes, it's early but there are some key fixtures down at the relegation end.  You can check out Leicester (2 points) hosting Everton (0 points) or Southampton (0 points) versus Ipswich (2 points); both are at 10 am Saturday on Peacock.  We loves us some relegation six pointers so these could be interesting.

Newcastle have a very tricky fixture as they travel to Craven Cottage to face Fulham (10 am Saturday on Peacock).  If the Magpies don't find some offense, they could easily find themselves getting just one point, or even nothing out this.  

You could get up early Saturday to catch the London derby featuring West Ham and Chelsea on USA.  Both are somewhat hard to figure out so far.  The 10 am TV game on USA is Liverpool hosting Bournemouth; after last week's stumble you have figure the Reds will take it to the Cherries.  Of course, that's what we said last week.

Feature TV match at 12:30 on Saturday is Crystal Palace - Man United.  The visitors are favored but not by as much as you might think.  Rounding out the schedule is a sort of Midlands derby between Aston Villa and Wolves (10 am Saturday on Peacock), Spurs - Brentford (a not obvious London derby at 10 am on Peacock), and Brighton - Nottingham Forest (two of the undefeated sides) Sunday at 9 on USA.

Sunday is a big one for the Union as they host DC United at 6:15.  The TV people see this as big too, as it will be on FS1 and "free" Apple TV.  I tried framing this as only a must-not-lose match but with so many teams chasing them and some tougher matches waiting for them in October, this really is a must-win for the Union.  Montreal have Chicago at home, though both Nashville (Cincinnati) and Atlanta (Red Bull) have tougher opponents.  

No Champions League this week but we do have Europe League.  Man United host Twente on Wednesday and Spur are home to Grab Bag Qarabag FK on Thursday.  

Are we there yet?

Not Much To Miss

Not much happened in the last two weeks.

Meet The New Boss (apologies to The Who)

Pochettino: Definitely not the same as the old boss

Mauricio Pochettino and US Soccer and Chelsea finally worked out the contract details and he will be the new USMNT manager.  His first matches with the team will be the next set of friendlies on 10/12 (Panama) and 10/15 (Mexico).  Poch is not the first "foreigner" to manage the US team but arguably he's the highest profile manager the team has ever had.  Though I remain skeptical about how much he'll be able to accomplish in the larger infrastructure that is the chaos of US soccer, I'm excited to see how it works out.

The USMNT lost 2-1 to Canada and drew 1-1 with New Zealand in this international break.  The NZ goal sounds and looks like an unlucky break in the 89th minute.  

The Report Of My Death Was An Exaggeration

Sean Dyche did not get sacked.  In fact, two factors weigh against a quick sacking.  First, the club will be hard pressed to afford the £4 million payout Dyche would be owed upon sacking.  Second, Everton are in the midst of a possible ownership change and that new ownership will want to make the choice of manager.  As detailed here, that sale will neither be quick or sure to happen. So Dyche may have some time to save his position.

Must Go Faster

Though most of the MLS was off for the international break, the Union still lost ground in the playoff chase.  That's because DC United bested Chicago 2-1, moving them past both Atlanta and Philadelphia into the last playoff spot. Going into the weekend, the Union sit in 11th.  

A Nose For The Game?

Kerlon uses the seal dribble in a U17 match vs Uruguay

BFS Track and Field Correspondent Jack W sends along this article about the man who brought the "seal dribble" to mainstream soccer.  You can see Kerlon employing the technique here.  Interesting story, including the story about how the writer eventually tracked Kerlon down.  The article does not address this but there is plenty on the internet about how the technique is now "banned" by current rules.  That is not exactly the case.  There is no specific reference to seal dribbing in the laws.  There is however this definition of dangerous play:

Playing in a dangerous manner is any action that, while trying to play the ball, threatens injury to someone (including the player themself) and includes preventing a nearby opponent from playing the ball for fear of injury.

Since there is no way to safely challenge for the ball, using the technique when opposing players are close would qualify as playing in a dangerous manner.  Kerlon's long history as the subject of violent tackles does highlight how it can be dangerous. Some have also suggested that the technique, in certain circumstances, could be considered unsporting behavior as a form of taunting (looking at you Richarlison).  

 

Back to Work

A North London derby highlights the EPL return from the international break.  Tottenham will host Arsenal at 9 am on Sunday on USA.  Even at home and with the Gunners missing Declan Rice (suspension) and probably Odegaard (injury on international duty), Spurs are slight underdogs.  At least it looks competitive.  The rest of the fixture list is less promising.

A struggling Man United is still a strong favorite over host Southampton in the early Saturday match.  Of the 10 am contests, only Fulham -West Ham looks to offer the prospects of a competitive match.  Elsewhere, the home sides Brighton (Ipswich), Crystal Palace (Leicester), Liverpool (Nottingham Forest) and Man City (Brentford) look like good bets.  Palace - Leicester is the USA choice, the others are on Peacock.  The feature 12:30 NBC game is Aston Villa hosting Everton; anything less than a win for the Villans would have to be viewed as a disappointment.  There's a "bonus" Saturday contest at 3 pm on Peacock featuring surprising Bournemouth versus Chelsea; even at home, this would be a true "surprise" if the Cherries get anything out of this one.

Off some good performances as a sub and for Italy, expect
 Tonali to be in the starting XI for Newcastle (Getty Images)

Sunday has the aforementioned derby at 9 followed by Wolves - Newcastle at 11:30 on USA.  I like the Magpies' chances here but note that they haven't won at Molineux since February 2017, when both sides were in the 2nd tier Championship League.  In the six contests since then, the Magpies have drawn five and lost one.  

The Union will continue their quest for playoff berth with a tough contest away at Miami (7:30 Saturday behind Apple's double paywall).  They'll follow that up with another tough one at NYCFC (at MLS worst venue - Yankee Stadium) on Wednesday, also behind Apple's double paywall.

Midweek Champions League football returns with 18 matches Tuesday through Thursday.  Tuesday you can watch Aston Villa at Young Boys at 12:30 then tune in for Milan-Liverpool at 3 pm.  Wednesday has Man City hosting Inter at 3 pm.  Thursday is Arsenal at Atalanta, also at 3 pm.  The new Champions League format is explained here.

Except for some international breaks, it's gonna be a packed fall.

That Went Well

Except for my Football Manager Forest Green side losing 0-1 on a late goal to Tottenham, that was an amazing sequence of results for the BFS sides.   

Can You Say Against the Run of Play?

The statistics and my eyes tell me Spurs pushed Newcastle all over the pitch on Sunday but the Magpies somehow walked away with a 2-1 win.  Possession was 66/34, shots 20/9 and shots on target were 6/3.  However, note that xG was 1.62 - 1.27 favor the Magpies and that Newcastle did score all three goals - Dan Burn with the OG for Spurs only tally.  The game winner came on a lightning quick counter started by Joelinton, continued by Murphy and finished by Isak - we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Not to look a gift two (three?) points in the mouth, but Newcastle should be careful not to read too much into the win.  Spurs were missing Richarlison and Solanke, who could have easily improved their finishing.  They put some shots in on Pope and generally dominated play.  The glass is half-full contingent points out that the Magpie counterattack was very incisive and despite a makeshift center back pairing of Burn and Krafth, they didn't allow that many good scoring chances. 

In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL.   

We Weren't Expecting You Mr. Bond

AR Ian Hissin: Figures I get hurt doing a Newcastle match

Newcastle's injury woes over the last 18 months have been well-documented.  Thoughts that maybe it is something in the water gained traction when AR Ian Hissin blew out a quad in the 18th minute of the Newcastle - Spurs contest.  He was unable to continue and was replaced by the fourth official whose name was Bond, Darren Bond.  The announcer nailed it with the quote, "we weren't expecting you Mr. Bond."  For Hissin's sake, we hope he didn't have his thigh treated by the Newcastle physios. 

Ollie Who?

Probably more work than they would like but Aston Villa got a 2-1 victory over Leicester at King Power Stadium.  This is a match of Midland rivals, although neither side considers it a derby.  Snarly enough anyway.  The bad news was Leicester were in it all the way and that Ollie Watkins' scoring drought continues.  At least he put some shots on goal but he is not burying chances like he used to.  The good news is that Jon Dhuran John Duran Jhon Duran is scoring with some regularity.  His header, which turned out to be the game winner, can be seen here. Villa will need Watkins to find his form but it's helpful that someone is picking up the slack.

Chris Kavanaugh Looks To Wipe Out Shithousery One Yellow Card At A Time

I count eight yellows in the testy but interesting 1-1 draw between Arsenal and Brighton.  At least four were related to some form of shithousery.  The one that really mattered though was Kavanaugh's decision to show Declan Rice yellow for delaying the restart of the free kick, seen here.  This got the extra attention as it was Rice's second yellow of the day so he was gone.  Kavanaugh took some lumps on the internet, though he did have his backers on this one.  We loved it.  Aside from the fact that it made the second half way more competitive and interesting to watch, we're in favor of any sanctions for that kind of nonsense.  We heard the argument about the mythical higher threshold for a second yellow, blah, blah, blah.  He knew exactly what he was doing.  Also, though I don't think it affected the decision, Rice's theatrical flop made me even more comfortable with the call.   More please.

Like Taking Candy From The Toffees

Fans outside Goodison Park wait for word on Sean Dyche

Whatever kind of bad day you had, there's no way it matches the disaster that befell Sean Dyche and Everton.  Comfortably up 2-0 at home against Bournemouth through 86 minutes, they saw the Cherries pour through three goals in less than 10 minutes to snatch all three points.  You can see all the carnage here.  Sean Dyche is under fire for Everton's terrible start - three losses and a goal differential of minus eight.  Still, it's too soon to sack him, right?  Maybe not, as there appears to be momentum to bring back David Moyes.

The Dreaded Vote Of Confidence

Speaking of managers under the microscope. After losses to Brighton and Liverpool, Erik ten Hag has gotten the backing of club managment.  As expressed by CEO Omar Berrada:

"Do we still believe in Erik? Absolutely. We think Erik is the right coach for us and we're fully backing him."

 But I also saw an article that said they already know who they will pick to replace when if he is sacked (Thomas Tuchel).  Sounds like dead man walking to me.

Addition By Not Subtracting - Another Look at the Newcastle Transfer Window

Certainly, Newcastle's transfers during this window were underwhelming.  The only incoming player expected to see much time - assuming he stays healthy - is left back Lloyd Kelly.  I guess technically Lewis Hall is considered a transfer in but that was really converting a loan into a permanent acquisition.  On the flip side, we did not lose Isak, Guimaraes, or Gordon.  Sondro Tonali will be effectively an addition given that he missed all but a few early games last year on suspension.  And we will get Botman and Laschelles back in January.  Botman in 2022-23 form would be a big lift.  Are those positives enough to outweigh not getting a center back and a winger?   Probably not, but the failure to land any marquee signings may not be disaster.

We shouldn't underestimate how the Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR) factored into the difficult summer window.  Oversimplifying a bit, the PSR limits the loss a team can take over a three-year period to about $134 million, or an average of about $45 million per year.  In other words, the rules dictate how much you can lose, not how much you can spend.  So, the higher your revenue base, the more you can spend.  This is why the comments after Newcastle were acquired by the Saudi PIF that they were simply going to spend their way to the title were so off base.  Take a look at the chart below. 

Since Loss = Revenue - Expenses, this is the relevant constraining factor in a team's ability to spend.  It doesn't matter that the PIF is worth $1 billion or whatever; the PSR says they can only loss $45 million per year.   At £250 million in revenue a year, Newcastle are near the top but look at the gap between them and the top six sides.  Most of the sides above them have at least two times as much revenue to work with.  Probably just a coincidence that the top six by revenue were the ones who were ready to establish a break away Champions League a few years ago.

I'm not saying there's not an advantage to having a well-heeled ownership, as that will affect the willingness of a club to sustain losses within the allowable limits.  But the likelihood that there will be losses is driven by revenue, not net worth.  That is, the side most likely to get the marquee signing with the $10 million annual salary ain't Bournemouth.  So all those worried that Newcastle would use that Arab money to take over the EPL can rest easy.  Yes, they have a financial advantage over all the clubs below them in that chart but nothing that threatens the top six.

Was that a rant?  I didn't think it was a rant.  Maybe it was a rant.

Treading Water Beats Drowning

The Union put up a good performance against the Red Bulls in Harrison NJ on Saturday night and were also greatly helped by the woodwork.  Uhre put them up in the fourth minute on a goal (seen here) that looked suspiciously soft but was probably just an accurate shot off the right foot to the left corner of the goal.  Baribo continued his hot form and doubled the lead at 14 minutes.  That would be all the scoring for the night, though the Red Bulls would hit the woodwork on numerous occasions.  I think the Union had a least one off the post too.  Many of the stats favor the Red Bulls but xG has the Union at 3.1-2.1.  This might be one of those where "you create your own luck?"

The bad news is that all the three unexpected points did was keep them from falling any further behind in the playoff chase as Atlanta also won.  The good news is that Toronto lost so they are now within reach as well.  This still looks like a difficult struggle.

A Good Week For Football Manager?

Except for a smattering of MLS fixtures, most leagues will be quiet this week for the international break.  For the USMNT there will be a couple of friendlies against Canada and New Zealand.  The team will be under the direction of interim manager Mikey Varas as the signing of Pochettino has not been completed yet.  

European countries will begin the latest installment of the Nations League, explained in more detail here.  I have labeled this competition - perhaps unfairly - as friendlies on steroids.  For some of the lesser lights, a good performance in the Nations League can be a back door entry into the 2026 World Cup so it's not completely meaningless.

Still, this might be a week for me to get in some extra Football Manager matches.