Ho-hum, another Champions League title for Real Madrid. And what exactly was that mess at Subaru Park?
Real-ly?
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| Veni, vidi, Vinicius: I came, I saw, I scored |
This championship has been very much the domain of Real Madrid. They've won 15 of the 69 competitions (European Cup or Champions League), five of the last nine, and six of the last 11. The strange part is that how it often looks like they're not going win, either looking like dead meat in the early knockout stages or unimpressive in the final. This year they relied on two late goals from Newcastle washout Joselu to even make the final. Oh, and they just added Kilian Mbappe to the roster.
Burnley and Vincent Part Company
After two straight years of double digit in-season sacks, 2023-24 was a quiet one, with only three managerial changes during the season. Before and after the season? Well that's a different matter. One was sacked before the season began. And there were five more announced after the season ended.
Here's the table for in-season sacks:
All three sides showed improvement and two of three met their post-sacking goal. This is much better than the success rates of 50% in 21-22 and 36% in 22-23. The five gone post-season include Pochettino (Man United?), Klopp (villa in Majorca), Moyes (job at TalkSport), DeZerbi (Chelsea? Man United?) and Kompany (Bayern Munich).
Laws of the Game Under A Microscope: Part II - Blue Cards
IFAB has approved trials for a "sin bin" concept in which referees could send players off for 10 minutes for cynical fouls or dissent. The idea is explained here. This won't be coming to a Premier League near you just yet but it is getting air time at lower levels. Note this is not replacement for red cards but an additional sanction in the referee's pocket.
At first I was agin' it but I'm coming around. Key for me is that it's an addition, not a replacement. Further, it is focused on my least favorite part of the game - shithousery. In fact, they could just shorten the whole thing to "he got a blue card for shithousery." Referees are pretty good about showing yellows for tactical fouls and this ups the ante for committing one. On the other hand, referees tolerate far too much dissent for my tastes. If they are not showing yellows now, will they show blue cards, for which the sanction is even greater?
And what of the impact? To get a sense of what it might to do goal scoring, I looked at every match with a red card this season. There were 54 occasions when a team was shorthanded due to a red card. In 29 of those cases, the team with the advantage scored at least once. However, on three of those, the only goal was the result of the PK associated with the red card, so I don't count that as a goal based on the man advantage. So we have goals in 26 of 54 shorthanded situations, or 48%.
But, to assess the impact of blue cards though, we must narrow the focus to goals scored within 10 minutes of the sending off. In 18 of the shorthanded situations, a goal was in fact scored within 10 minutes. However, seven of those were a PK resulting from the sending off, so we don't count them. Thus, we have goals within 10 minutes 11 out of 54 times, or 20% of the time. This is actually higher than I was expecting, and basically the same as the NHL average power play percentage too. Sure, we're talking about a longer "power play" (10 minutes versus 2) but I would not have guessed it would be that close.
Will teams play differently knowing the man advantage is limited to 10 minutes? That could apply to both offense and defense. Many times the shorthanded side will make a substitution to cover the hole left by the sending off. That might not be a good strategy if the disadvantage is only going to last 10 minutes but it could mean a higher percentage of goals. Will the offense attack more intensely, again knowing they only have 10 minutes?
I'm trying to think through possible unintended consequences. Probably missing something. I'm willing to be persuaded here.
308 Minutes Without An Even Strength Goal
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| Finally: Union celebrate Uhre's (middle) goal; the 2-1 lead didn't last though |
The Union made things really difficult by allowing Montreal an early goal when three defenders failed to close down attackers. Since Montreal had clearly come in with their "wasting time" slider pushed all the way to the max, this looked look a real problem. They then proceeded to give the Union a lifeline when Lassiter was sent off just before the half. Philadelphia took advantage early in the second half with a PK (Gazdag did not miss) and minutes later a goal from Uhre on a great pass from Sullivan. Things were looking up, even if it they were goals with the extra man.
But things got strange. Elliott failed to corral a pass from Semmle and in his attempt to recover the ball, made an ugly challenge on Edwards; two lapses of concentration in not settling the ball and then trying to compensate with a serious foul play. You can see the play here (I read some complaints about the call; yes he did get the ball first but then plowed into Edwards with a straight leg at speed). Montreal wasted no time, leveling the match on the ensuing free kick. Some chances in the closing minutes but the final was 2-2, a result arguably worse than either of the 0-0 draws with Charlotte and Toronto.
For the class 1/2 1/20 full people at least it wasn't a loss and Uhre scored. Otherwise, this was a car wreck at Subaru Park. Dropping two points after being up a man to a team below them in the standings at home is no way to make the playoffs.
It's Mackle-henney (mild Wrexham spoiler)
What birthday present can you get for the man who has everything, including a soccer team? A song to teach people how to say your name! Ryan Reynolds did just that for his Wrexham co-owner Rob Maclenny Micklehanny Maclanenny McElhenney. The video is here and aside from being a great tune (written by Justin Paul and Benj Pasek), it's a hoot, littered with cameos by people in Rob's life. Don't miss the Jason Kelce appearance. It was actually released last year but just showed up in this year's Welcome to Wrexham. We get a glimpse of what Rob is going to do for Ryan's birthday but it would be too much of a spoiler to discuss that.
European Championships
So we are off to Eugene for the Olympic Trials in a few weeks. That can mean only one thing. It's time for the European Championships! Okay, in fact it means more than one thing - great track and field action, hanging with Bucknell friends, enjoying the West coast of Oregon, etc. However, the European Championships is a bonus.
There is plenty of stuff on line to look at. Rosters are here. Some predictions here. Fixtures are here. Some matches I'm already anticipating include:
Scotland - HungaryAny Group B but especially Spain - Croatia, Spain-Italy and Croatia - ItalyDenmark - SerbiaAustria - PolandUkraine - RomaniaCzechia - Turkiye (Czechoslovakia Turkey to those of us born before 1960)
Aside from the teams, I do enjoy seeing various players of interest to me. This year my FM Forest Green side is represented by Angus Gunn and Scott McKenna for Scotland. Newcastle have Martin Dubravka (Slovakia), Fabian Schar (Switzerland), Kieran Trippier (England) and Anthony Gordon (England). The Philadelphia Union have Daniel Gazdag (Hungary). Dennis gets to see some Aston Villa players, including Youri Tielemans (Belgium), Ezri Konsa (England), Ollie Watkins (England) and John McGinn (Scotland).
Always a great tournament and will hope to catch as much as I can, even if it means getting up at 6 am in Eugene.
Not sure about a post next week. If not, don't forget all the Euro stuff plus the Union host Miami on Saturday 6/15.
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