The Grinch Stole Christmas (and Boxing Day)

Talk about coal in your Christmas stocking.  Newcastle got no points against two sides in the bottom four.  Aston Villa got one point in their two matches.  Ho ho ho my ass. 

You Can Go Home Again

Chris Wood comes "home" for Christmas
Photo: Lee Smith/Action Images/Reuters

Ex-Magpie Chris Wood returned to Saint James' Park and dropped a hat trick on Newcastle to complete the holiday wipeout.  On Saturday against 18th place Luton Town, Newcastle managed just two shots on goal in a 1-0 loss.  All I remember now is thinking can we just get out of here with a draw?  Boxing Day was even worse.  Newcastle did get an early lead thank's to a Guimaraes PK but they couldn't even take that into the halftime lockerroom because Chris Wood got a stoppage time tap in.  Two more early in the second half from Wood and you knew this match was out of reach.  

Surveying the damage, we see that Newcastle could not manage a goal from the run of play against the 17th and 18th place sides.  With players returning, injuries and fatigue are becoming less an explanation and more of an excuse.  Well, that's not completely fair, as this team defines the "whole is greater than the sum of the parts" concept so missing players like Jacob Murphy, Elliott Anderson, Harvey Barnes, and Matt Targett may be more damaging than we realize.  Also, fitness levels for returning players like Botman could be an issue too.  Whatever, they are not fun to watch right now.

Not Much Better For Villa

Things weren't all that great for Aston Villa either, as they eschewed the chance to go top of the table for Christmas.  On Friday they did look the better side at home versus Sheffield United, having more possession and more shots but it was still 0-0 late.  An 87th minute goal from Cameron Archer made it look like they wouldn't even get one point but Nicolo Zaniolo rescued the draw with a 97th minute equalizer.  Pretty thin gruel for the BFS sides this weekend so this ends up being the YouTubeableMoment.

Though the opponent was much tougher, the 3-2 loss at Old Trafford feels even worse.  Villa were up 2-0 at halftime and seemingly in control.  They even had a goal from Leander Dendoncker.  You know that here at BFS we don't buy that two goal lead is the toughest to defend nonsense.  However, Villa proceeded to prove the exception, ceding two to Garnacho and the game winner to Hojlund.  Villa probably deserved a draw here but the second half was very unVilla-like.  This was first time they dropped points from a winning position.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis:  Did you say Klopp substituted Tsimikas?

Steve: No I said he took him out

Tsimikas ended up with a broken collarbone from the incident, though I'm pretty sure it was the initial landing as opposed to the subsequent kollision with Klopp that caused the break.  He'll be out for several months, if not the rest of the season.  Recall that Tsimikas had been deputized to fill in for Andy Robertson, who dislocated his shoulder earlier this season.  He'll be returning shortly so Liverpool is not looking at a long term hole at this position.

The Real Coach "Beard"

The beard is back

Good to see Nuno Espirito Santo back in the EPL, even if his Nottingham Forest side took the measure of Newcastle on Tuesday.  Nuno's first game back wasn't so sweet as he saw Willy Boly get two yellows in the opening 23 minutes against Bournemouth.  Forest still made a match of it, taking a 1-0 lead and rallying from a 1-2 deficit.  Alas, Solanke completed his hat trick with a stoppage time goal to seal the win for the Cherries.  Taking three points from Newcastle probably took some of the sting of that defeat away.  Forest are currently two points clear of the bottom three but are probably in for a  relegation battle

Hard Times At the Top

Liverpool got four points from 1-1 draw with Arsenal and a 2-0 win over Burnley.  That was enough to put them top of the table.  Arsenal only got the one point from that draw, losing 0-2 to West Ham on Thursday; they sit second.  Villa also just got the one point and are third.  Actually, Man City did okay, winning the FIFA Club World Cup (4-0 over Fluminense) on Saturday, then taking the measure of Everton 3-1 to slide past Tottenham into fourth (with a game in hand no less). Spurs got three from 2-1 win over Everton but were fairly well beaten at Brighton and fell to fifth.    

Don't Look Now

Bournemouth have won four in row, haven't lost in seven and have taken 19 of the last 21 points on offer.  Their last defeat was 11/4 against Man City and they've beaten Man United and Newcastle (well maybe that's not a big a deal as we thought) in the streak.  

Will Still Have A Job 1/1/24

Post-Christmas wins for ten Hag and Pochettino mean they will probably be around for the new year.  After ugly pre-Christmas losses, that wasn't a sure thing.  Man United were awful in a 2-0 loss at West Ham and Chelsea no better in a 2-1 loss at Wolves.  The latter included six more yellows for Chelsea players.  United's comeback win over Villa should give ten Hag some breathing room.  Chelsea did not exactly dominate struggling Crystal Palace but late PK gave them a much needed 2-1 win.  

Given expectations, they will probably remain on the hot seat for the time being, joining Roy Hodgson and Eddie Howe.  We will argue that Howe certainly deserves more time to see how he fares with a full squad.  The next two league matches are Liverpool and Man City so that doesn't seem like a fair test either.  However, Newcastle do have Sunderland in the Third Round of the FA Cup sandwiched between those two fixtures;  a loss in that one could be more problemmatic.  Hodgson is in more peril.  Palace are just three points outside the relegation zone.  They haven't won since 11/4 and have taken just three of the last 24 points available.

The Last of the Holiday Fixtures

Everybody gets one more match before heading to the FA Cup weekend.  Another early start with Luton Town - Chelsea at 7:30 on Saturday on USA. Will the real Chelsea please stand up?  Four to choose from at 10 am.  We think the TV guys got it right with Wolves - Everton but loyalties may require us to take in Aston Villa - Burnley.  Your other choices Man City - Sheffield United (right, Opta has the Blades with a 3% chance of winning and 11% chance of getting a draw) or a London Derby between Crystal Palace and Brentford (actually that one will be competitive).  The NBC feature match is Nottingham Forest - Man United; on paper it doesn't sound great but we'll watch to see if either sides builds on their Boxing Day triumphs.

Two at 9 am on Sunday - a London Derby between Fulham and Arsenal (Peacock) or Spurs - Bournemouth on USA; as noted above, Bournemouth have been a tough draw lately but Tottenham will be looking to get back on track after the spanking by Brighton.

We can ring in the Newcastle Year with a very difficult contest - on the road at Liverpool (3pm USA).  The holiday schedule wraps up on Tuesday with West Ham  - Brighton (2:30 on USA), an interesting contest between two top half sides.  

If we have time next week, we'll try to identify the big winners and loser in the 12/2 - 1/2 holiday period, which saw most sides play seven matches.  Spoiler alert: unless they pull off an upset on New Year's Day, Newcastle will be one of the losers.  

Not That Kind of Boxing

Tuesday, Boxing Day, is one of my favorite days of the year, with many of the EPL teams in action.  I always thought it was called Boxing Day because, after 2-3 days together for the holiday, relatives would start to fight.  Turns out it was traditionally a day for giving gifts to the poor.

Despite going to a wedding out in Central PA, I did get to see more games than I expected thanks to fortuitous scheduling, Peacock replays and DVR so I do have some observations from the weekend.  

Life Is Easier A Man Up

Jimenez literally head butts Longstaff

Though it took long enough, Newcastle eventually capitalized on a silly (bizarre?) red card challenge by Raul Jimenez in the 22nd minute to come away with a 3-0 win over Fulham.  The Magpies were doing okay but not great before the sending off, then continued to do okay but not great for another 35 minutes.  Lewis Miley broke the spell with a good finish in the 57th minute, bagging his first career goal.  Given the context, we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Almiron and Dan Burn added insurance goals and it was all relatively comfortable.  One wonders if it would have gone that well with both teams at full strength.  Oh yeah, and Newcastle saw two more players - Schar and Joelinton - leave with injuries.  Everything comes with a price these days.

Shouldn't That Be "I Got a Red Card?"

Frank incensed - another holiday traditon?

As they have done to other clubs, Brentford gave Aston Villa all they could handle, carrying a 1-0 lead late into the match.  Then Mee got a red card at 71 minutes.  Alex Moreno leveled things a few minutes later with a nifty header at the far post and Watkins supplied the game winner at 85 minutes. As with Newcastle, you wonder if Villa get all three points in an even strength match.

This one got ugly after the red card.  Thomas Frank was not pleased with the sending off decision, nor initially with Watkins' response after the game winner.  They did talk after the full time whistle and seemed okay.  Maupay and Martinez had their own little playground spat that ended up with Kamara getting a red card for hands to the throat of a Brentford player.  All most unsavory.

Meanwhile...

Man City continue to show cracks as they coughed up a 2-0 lead, at home no less, and could only manage a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace.  Liverpool basically ran roughshod over Man United but only managed a 0-0 draw for their efforts.  Arsenal were more clinical, dispatching Brighton 2-0 to move back to the top of the table.  Spurs survived the sending off of Yves Bissouma (who is now out for four matches) in a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest.

Everton grabbed another three points with 2-0 win over Burnley and keep moving farther away from the relegation zone.  Chelsea were more than happy to add to Sheffield United's woes, beating the Blades 2-0 and finally making it to the top half of the table.  The biggest gap in the table is now the five points between 17th place Forest and the bottom three of Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United.

Christmas Cards

The weekend saw 39 yellow cards and five red cards.  Brentford - Aston Villa were responsible for 10 yellows and two reds as discipline was in short supply for that one.  Yellow cards are up from 3.62 last year to 4.53 this year so the weekend harvest is actually slightly below average.  But the five reds is way above the average of .2 per game.  Stats may be evening out a bit from earlier in the year, as we're seeing more matches where a red card means you lose; still the record so far is 12 wins, 7 draws and 16 losses.  

We're building a data base on this year's red card stats, partly in response to the idea being thrown about to move from red cards to a "sin bin" concept where the offending player is sent off for a period of time rather than whole game.  The concept is discussed in this article, (scroll down to This...Might Work), sent along by BFS Scandanavian Correspondent Jurgen B Sari (aka Philip S). Some random stats from the data so far include:

- 37 red cards have been shown

- 35 games have had at least one red card (we count Brentford - Aston Villa twice because     each team got one)

- 8 of 37 red cards were shown after 90 minutes

- 30 goals have been scored after red cards by the team with the advantage

- in 18 of the 35 games, the team with the advantage has scored at least one goal

- 11 of the 30 goals have been scored within 10 minutes of the sending off but that includes  4 where the red card resulted in a  PK so the sending off wasn't the real reason for the goal

- 10 goals have been scored by the team down a man

- in 9 of the games the shorthanded teams have scored; 

For the 35 games, 15 times the team with the advantage got more goals, 5 times it was the team down a man that got more goals and 15 times it was even.  If I have my math right, 51% (18/35) of the time, the sending off results in at least one goal for the team with the advantage.  If we limit the sending off to 10 minutes, that advantage drops to 31% (11/35); it falls to 20% (7/35) if we exclude the PK situations.  All kinds of trade-offs.  Will refs be more likely to signal for serious offenses?  Will players be more likely to commit them knowing the sending off is temporary?  My first thought is we leave well enough alone. 

Cooper "Beats" ten Hag

With Nottingham Forest winless in their last 13 matches, sitting in 17th place, Steve Cooper was sacked this week.  This is clearly another case of we appreciate your past service to the club but what have you done for us lately.  Cooper took over in September 2021 with Forest sitting dead last in the Championship Division.  He only took them to the promotion playoffs and with a win over Huddersfield got them into the Premier League.  They managed to avoid relegation last year but only by four points; this year certainly looked like it was going to be a struggle too.  Nuno Espirito Santo, late of Tottenham, will take over.

You Think You Had A Bad Month

Mudryk takes advantage of Trippier's misplay

Recall that the normally solid Kevin Trippier had a tough match a few weeks ago against Everton, as his mistakes led directly to two goals in the 3-0 loss to the Toffees.  He had another tough day in the Caraboa Cup quarterfinal vs Chelsea.  With the Magpies clinging desperately to a 1-0 lead in stoppage time, he misplayed a ball in the box that Mudryk was only too happy to bury for the equalizer.  Fast forward to the penalty kick phase (they don't play extra time at this point in the competition) and we see Trippier send his shot wide left.  Chelsea ended up advancing 4-2 on kicks.

To be fair, this was not a great effort from Newcastle anyway.  They were easily dispossessed many times, outphysicalled for most of the match and got their goal on a lucky break for Callum Wilson.  It only feels sucky because they were so close to coming away with the win anyway.  As with the exit from the Champions League, we are not particularly disappointed as this team doesn't need any extra games at this point.

The semis will feature Middlesborough vs Chelsea and Liverpool vs Fulham on Tuesday January 9th.  See what I mean - it would have been another mid-week match for the Magpies to manage.

MLS - One Step Up, Two Steps Back

On the positive side, the MLS just adopted some rule changes relating to substitutions and injuries.  Details can be had here.  My two favorite are the requirement that if you're being substituted you have to be off the field in 10 seconds or your replacement has to wait a minute before coming on.  The second is that if you required more than 15 seconds of treatment on the field for an injury, you have to wait two minutes before you can come back on.  If this works in convincing more players they don't need medical attention, I think we ought to explore how we could adapt the concept to the general population as way to reduce health care costs.

On the other hand, the arrogance of the MLS leadership continues to shock.  Last week, they announced that MLS would no longer participate in the US Open Cup but would instead send their development teams.  Details are here.  This is akin to the Premier League teams saying they would not participate in the FA Cup but would instead send their U-23 squads.  Before proceeding to completely trash the leadership, I will offer a few mitigating points.  In fact, many MLS teams do depend heavily on their reserves for early rounds of the Cup.  Second, it's not just management that isn't enamored of this competition.  In an interview last June, MLS Player Association Executive Director Bob Foose was quoted as saying "I can tell you that the US Open Cup is certainly not something our players look forward to."

One of the main issues cited was schedule congestion and how ditching the Cup competition opens up six match windows.  Well, it wouldn't be so crowded if you hadn't introduced the Leagues Cup that shuts down the regular season for six weeks.  Ah, but the difference is MLS has control over the media rights and money for that competition, unlike the US Open Cup.  This article by James Nalton in The Guardian gets to the heart of the matter.  Here's the money paragraph:

By removing itself from the Open Cup, MLS is attempting to control the story of Messi in US soccer by limiting Messi Mania to its own in-house marketing. In doing so, it denies those outside MLS – from broadcasters to lower league teams to fans – the chance to ride the Messi soccer wave. This is more evidence that the focus of MLS is now on growing itself rather than the sport in the country as a whole.

Reaction has been swift, similar to the outrage that immediately erupted at the announcement the Super League in Europe a few years ago.  USSF has told MLS that it cannot unilaterally withdraw from the competition.  So this may continue to play out over the next couple of months.

Super League Back From the Dead

Thanks to this ruling by the European Court of Justice, efforts to create a Super League are ramping up.  The new proposal talks about a 64-team competition that would replace the Champions League, with two 16-team higher tier leagues and a 32-team lower tier league.  There would be promotion/relegation between the leagues and access to the lower tier would be based on performance in domestic leagues.  I'm not opposed to a restructured European competition as long as participation isn't guaranteed by "birthright" (i.e. market power).  Hard to know yet if this new proposal is really a meritocracy.  It is notable that many of the clubs from the previous attempt are saying they aren't interested and will only go with UEFA sponsored competitions.

Let the Games Begin

So with 18 matches between Friday and next Thursday, there's gotta be some good stuff, right?  Well sort of.  The biggest contest of the period is Liverpool - Arsenal as Saturday's 12:30 NBC feature match; yeah, 1st vs 2nd qualifies as a feature fixture.  Opta has Liverpool as clear favorites at 47/27/26.  The other match we have our eyes on is Aston Villa hosting Man United at 3 pm on Boxing Day on USA.  Here's another test of Villa's bona fides as a title contender.  No data from Opta available for the mid week matches but we like Villa's chances here.

That's pretty much it on the top end.  There is a key relegation match up between Sheffield United and Luton Town on Boxing Day at 10 am on Peacock.  That might be more interesting than the alternative Bournemouth - Fulham on USA.  

We'll also recommend West Ham vs Man United, Saturday morning's 7:30 am match on USA.  This could be close, as both teams have been in the Dr. Jekyl - Mr. Hyde mode all season.

Newcastle have two matches which we might normally consider easy but with injuries and fatigue, might not be so inviting.  Saturday the Magpies take on Luton Town in one of the 10 am matches (the USA one actually - we would have put Spurs - Everton in that role) and Tuesday they open up the Boxing Day festivities at 7:30 hosting Nottingham Forest.  Should be six points but we'll see.

Besides the Man United match, Aston Villa start the holiday weekend off with a Friday 3 pm home match against Sheffield United.  Sounds like three points to me.

There are a couple of London Derbies that could be fun. Chelsea host Crystal Palace on Wednesday at 2:30 (Peacock) and Arsenal and West Ham square off on Thursday at 3 pm (Peacock).  

The full schedule is here if you want to customize your holiday viewing.

Will be interesting to see who sits atop the table this time next week.

Running On Empty

apologies to Jackson Browne

You can only put the same 11 players out there every match so many times before they end up "running on empty."  Newcastle found that out in the 4-1 loss away to Spurs.  The line-up wasn't bad, it was just gassed.  That's all we'll say about Saturday.  Well, except maybe that Spurs played pretty well so it wasn't just we were tired.  But did Richarlison have to get two?

All For the Best

Tired and dejected; I think this is at the end of the 
Milan match but they are starting to look the same

Newcastle's other match for the week was also a loss, 1-2 to AC Milan in the final Champions League group stage match.  This was all four seasons in one match, except there were only three seasons.  Up 1-0, the Magpies were second in the live table and looking at advancement to the knockout phase of Champions League.  At 1-1, they were third in the table and the "soft landing" to the knockout phase of Europa League would be their fate.  At 1-2, they finish bottom of the group and are done with Europe for the year. 

I believe this is for the best.  They were very competitive and arguably deserved a draw.  This was nothing like the moribund squad we saw in losses to Everton and Tottenham, even though there was only one change in the starting XI (Wilson for Isak).  But, even recognizing that the knockout phases of these competitions don't start until January when a few more of the injured players might return, I think we've seen enough to know that this team isn't quite good or deep enough to be able to compete in multple competitions that include mid-week contests.  I will be happy to see them with a few fewer fixtures and the energy to focus on the league.  Thus far the club has been mostly measured in building a better squad and additional pressure of Champions League or Europa League might have caused them to abandon that patience.  Yeah, I can rationalize anything.

Spin Doctor Please

What does it say about Aston Villa that they come up with less than their best effort against second place Arsenal yet still walked away with a 1-0 win? The xG (.67 - 1.47 favor the Gunners) suggests maybe some luck or maybe that Martinez is worth every penny in goal for Villa.  Or what if this team might just be good enough to contend?  As Dennis noted:

If Villa were City, the analysis would be that these are the tough wins you need to win a title

He might be right.

Double Jeopardy?

Dyche has Everton out of the relegation
zone for the moment; also maybe the shiniest
shoes of any manager in the league

Chelsea were the latest to find out how fierce Everton are right now.  They struggled mightily against the Toffees and eventually went down 2-0 at Goodison Park.  That's three straight wins for the Everton and three straight clean sheets.  So they've gotten back nine of the ten points deducted for FFP violations; even with the deduction they are now four points clear of the relegation zone.  They'd be 10th in the table without the penalty.  

That's the good news.  The bad news is that they could be headed for a second docking of nine points.  The problem is they have been depending on loans from a potential purchaser to keep going.  Absent those funds, the club would likely be at risk of administration (bankruptcy on this side of the pond) and would face another nine point deduction.  Delays in approving the sale are putting those funds in jeopardy, though based on this article, it sounds like maybe they'll be okay.

You Can't Play Chelsea Every Week

Erik ten Hag didn't have a good week.  Though the 3-0 final may be a bit misleading, Man United did not distinguish themselves at home against Bournemouth (another side I'd rather not play right now).  They did have much of the possession and got off 20 shots, but only three were on target; xG was 1.26 - 1.57.  Fast forward to Tuesday at home against Bayern for the Champions League group stage match they had to win to have a shot at making the knockout phase.  The Red Devils came up very flat.  Though the final was just 0-1 for Bayern, they were clearly outplayed.  Paraphrasing Paramount commentator Peter Schmeichel here "it looked they had no chance of scoring."  Well, they did manage one shot on target.  So ten Hag finds himself neck-and-neck with Nottingham Forest's Steve Cooper as the manager most likely to be sacked right now.

Better Late Than Never

Liverpool have six second half stoppage time goals in their 15 matches that have netted them an extra seven points.  If we extend it to the 80 minute mark, we add three more goals and another four points.  Looking at it from the other side, they've only dropped one point from the 80th minute on.

What She Said

Welch has done Championship and FA Cup matches
PA Wire/Adam Davy

The EPL will have its first woman in the center for the Burnley Fulham match on Saturday December 23.  Rebecca Welch has been a referee since 2010 and worked her way up the ladder.  Details are here.  Note also in the article that the EPL will have its first black referee since 2008.  Sam Allison will be just the second black to work the center in the EPLs history when he covers the Sheffield United - Luton Town match on Boxing Day.

MLS Cup (ertino)

The MLS season came to an end with an okay if not thrilling 2-1 win for Columbus over LAFC.  Certainly no LAFC - Union match like last year's final.  

This may go down as the year that Apple did massive damage to the MLS brand.  In the admittedly small sphere of fans here in Northwest Philly, that is the consensus.  I recognize that the Union's dropoff in performance from the last few years could be a factor in our assessment.  However, many of us went through the lean years with the Union without our overall interest in the league flagging this much.

Apple took away our excellent home team broadcasting crew, required us to pay extra to see our own team's matches on TV, was likely responsible for the six-week interruption in league play to have the Leagues Cup (more product for the Cupertino Broadcasting Company), and was also likely the reason for an interminable playoff period.  I'm sure I'm forgetting something in that list.  What do we think of a league that could only generate serious interest by importing Lionel Messi?  He had a great run in the Leagues Cup but then got injured and Miami never made it to the playoffs.  How his presence plays out next year remains to be seen.  The league currently has 29 teams, will be adding San Diego in 2025 and may be heading to 32 in the near future.  I don't see how that helps the situation.  I think it just makes the league even harder to follow.

This article in Forbes suggests maybe I am an outlier as the MLS is doing better as business.  Attendance is up, social media traffic is up, and merchandising is up.  Maybe I'm just the wrong demographic.  On the other hand, I haven't seen any data on viewership for MLS Season Pass.  So maybe we really don't know how things are going. Color me skeptical.

On the Road Again

Family trip this weekend means limited viewing.  I will not be the guy who yells "GOOOAAAAALLLL" in the middle of the wedding ceremony.  

The weekend gets an early start with Nottingham Forest hosting Spurs at 3 pm Friday on USA.  That does sound like a match for Spurs to build on their win over Newcastle.  No 7:30 fixtures Saturday morning but four to choose from at 10.  TV has Man City - Crystal Palace, which doesn't look all that competitive even given City's recent un-City form.  Newcastle have Fulham; we would normally be optimistic about this match but the Cottagers come to town off consecutive 5-0 wins over West Ham and Nottingham Forest.  Other choices are hot Bournemouth hosting Luton Town or Chelsea vs Sheffield United at Stamford Bridge.  The NBC "feature" match at 12:30 is Burnley - Everton; Dyche can't match Kompany's sartorial splendor (except for maybe the shoes) but you wonder if Eveton's recent form will be too much for Burnley.  Opta does have this as the closest match of the weekend at 35/30/35.

Four more games on Sunday.  We would go with Brentford - Aston Villa as the 9 am choice but others might be drawn to Arsenal - Brighton (the TV game) or West Ham - Wolves.  The 11:30 match - a good one between Liverpool and Man United - is on NBC for some reason.

The Carabao Cup quarters are this Tuesday and Wednesday.  Since Newcastle are still in it, we still care about it, a little anyway.  Tuesday is Everton - Fulham and Port Vale - Middlesborough.  Wednesday is Chelsea - Newcastle and Liverpool - West Ham.  Hmm, one of these is not like the others.  

Also, there's a random Thursday EPL match at 3 pm between Crystal Palace and Brighton.

Plenty to watch as you wrap presents.

Mans Down

Mostly overwhelmed by the volume of results, which means I resort to my trusty stand-by of random observations from the two matchweeks.

Manchester Parlay

Newcastle and Aston Villa had matching 1-0 wins over the Manchester franchises.  In both cases, the final scores flattered the losers.  In their win over Man United, Newcastle outshot them 22/8, shots on target were 4/1 and xG was 2.90/.42.  United really only threatened in the final 10 minutes.  The replacements - Livramento, Lascelles and Miley - continue to impress.  The downside was that Nick Pope separated his shoulder late in the match and will likely miss about four months after having surgery.

Aston Villa were possibly more dominating.  They outshot City 22/2, with shots on target 7/2 and expected goals 2.19/1.  I do remember a big save Martinez so City did threaten at least once but Villa hit the post once and had several other good chances as well.   They were simply the better side.

We'll gloss over that neither won their other match this week.  A clutch header from Ollie Watkins in the 90th minute allowed Villa to sneak out of Bournemouth with a 2-2 draw.  Newcastle were nowhere near that fortunate in a 3-0 loss to Everton at Goodison Park.  Neither side played very well but the Toffees displayed more passion in their play and the win was totally deserved.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve (after Nick Pope picks up separated shoulder like teammate Jacob Murphy): How many teams have two players out with separated shoulders?

Dennis: How many have one?

McNeil Leads Everton Out of the Drop Zone

Everton are not taking their point deduction lying down, on or off the field.  Their appeal has been filed and they've won two matches in a row.  Dwight McNeil was key in both.  Here is his laser from the left side of the box that was the difference in the 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest.  He followed it up with this rocket to put Everton up 1-0 late against Newcastle.  Yes, they added two more but his blast was the killer that sent them on their way.  

The only other sides to win both games this were were Arsenal and Liverpool, though perhaps not as easily as we predicted.  The Gunners underwhelmed in a 2-1 win over Wolves, then needed a 97th minute header from Declan Rice to snatch a 4-3 win against Luton Town.  Reluctantly, we make Rice's goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Similarly, Liverpool needed an 88th minute goal from Trent Alexander-Arnold to complete a last minute comeback against Fulham.  You can see the strike here.  They followed up with a workmanlike 2-0 win over relegation fodder Sheffield United.  As expected, Arsenal and Liverpool stay 1-2 in the table.

Heck of A Game Plan

I wish I could have been in the Burnley dressing room to hear Vincent Kompany lay out the strategy for their relegation contest with Sheffield United.  "Okay guys, here's what we do.  First, score in the opening 13 seconds.  Then get a second one quickly,  Then get one of the Sheffield United defenders sent off just before half time."

Though it ruined what we had expected to be a tight match, it certainly worked out okay for Burnley as they cruised to a 5-0 win and lifted themselves out of the basement.  I don't know if he tried the same speech on Wednesday but they went down 0-1 to Wolves.  

The game winner in that match came from Hwang Hee-chan.  Don't look now but he's tied for fourth on the scoring table: 

1. Erling Haaland, Manchester City — 14
2. Mohamed Salah, Liverpool — 10
3. Heung-min Son, Tottenham — 9
4. Jarrod Bowen, West Ham United — 9
5. Ollie Watkins, Aston Villa — 8
6. Hee-chan Hwang, Wolverhampton Wanderers — 8

Mr. Haaland's O-fer (apologies to Richard Dreyfus)

Haaland erupted but not with goals

After being held scoreless in consecutive matches, Erling Haaland saw his Premier League goals per game sink to 1.00.  He's now at 50 goals in 50 matches.  He did find time to lose his sh get excited near the end of the 3-3 draw with Spurs when Simon Hooper blew the whistle for a foul rather than playing advantage.  Though Grealish was surrounded by three Spurs defenders, it looked like he might have had a breakaway on goal for a potential last minute game winner (which would have been crushing for Spurs, who had just leveled the match with a Kulusevski header).  From Hooper's perspective, he might have thought the pass wasn't going to be anything special so he whistled the play dead to give City the free kick.  Possibly the best play would have been for Hooper to wait a few more seconds; however, if he did so and the pass was the bust, he would not have been able to bring the play back for a free kick.  He probably would have gotten crap if that had happened too.  Also, it's possible that Spurs held up when the whistle blew, making it look more like an advantage than it really was.  Hard to say.

What is not hard to say is that Haaland blew his top.  Aside from getting in Hooper's face on the pitch, he later posted a short and sweet "Wtf" on social media.  So far, it looks like he will not face any sanctions, though the club may for the collective actions of the players swarming Hooper.  Guardiola, while making it clear that he did not agree with the call, was more measured, delivering a new quotable quote we might use going forward:

When asked about the incident, he said: "Next question. I will not do a Mikel Arteta comment."

Did You Know?

A couple of refereeing points from the weekend.  First, the ball is dead not when the referee blows the whistle for a foul but when he makes the decision that it is a foul.  Late in the Chelsea - Brighton match, Anthony Taylor called handling against a Chelsea defender in the box; the ball bounced off the player and rolled over the goal line before Taylor blew his whistle.  The handling call was overturned after the VAR sent Taylor to the monitor.  The restart was a dropped ball for the Chelsea keeper, not a corner for Brighton.  The announcers (and ESPN referee review) mistakenly thought this was a mistake.  But, the ball is dead when Taylor decides it's a hand ball, not when he blows his whistle.  So the restart is a dropped ball.

Which leads to the second point.  When play is stopped with the ball in the penalty area, the restart is a dropped ball for the keeper, regardless of why play was stopped.  That leads to the crummy potential scenario in which the attacker takes a shot, it hits the referee inside the box and goes into the goal.  Not only is it not a goal, it's a dropped ball for the defense.  That would piss me off but it is the law.  Put together with the previous point and you have the reason it was a dropped ball for Chelsea's keeper.

Let My People Watch

By every account, the Cincinnati - Columbus Eastern Conference Final was one for the books.  Too bad it was behind a paywall so none of us saw it.  Cincy held a 2-0 lead through 75 minutes only to see Columbus grab two goals (the second at 86 minutes) to get the match to extra time.  Columbus got the game winner in the 115th minute so it didn't have to go to kicks from the spot.  The other conference final didn't sound quite as exciting though it was close most of the way, with LAFC grabbing a 2-0 over Houston.

The good news if you're interested is that you will be able to watch the Columbus - LAFC final at 4 on Saturday on Fox or "free" Apple.  

Note that once again, the club with the best regular season record will not win the MLS Cup.   It's only happened in 8 of the league's 23 seasons and only twice since 2011.  

Another Solid Week

BFS sides again offer the big matches for the weekend.  Aston Villa host Arsenal at 12:30 on Saturday in NBC's feature match of the week.  On Sunday at 11:30, Newcastle will take on Spurs at St. James' Park on USA.

Saturday early birds can go for Crystal Palace - Liverpool at 7:30 on USA.  Crowded again at 10 am with no obvious choice.  TV went with Brighton - Burnley.  Bournemouth have been pesky lately so we might check them out against Man United.  Or you could go with Wolves - Nottingham Forest or Sheffield United - Brentford.

You also have choices Sunday at 9 am.  Probably skip Luton Town - Man City in favor of a London Derby (Fulham vs West Ham) or Everton hosting Chelsea.  Actually, given how ferocious the Toffees have been lately, that match with struggling Chelsea could be interesting.

Last of the group stage matches in the three European competitions.  Newcastle must beat AC Milan and hope that PSG don't beat Dortmund.  The good news is that a Magpie win and PSG draw is enough to advance given that Newcastle was better head-to-head against the French side.  That match is 3 pm on Wednesday.  Man United's prospects are even more daunting.  They must beat Bayern on Tuesday (3 pm) and hope for a draw between Galatasaray and FC Copenhagen.  Man City and Arsenal have already clinched first in their groups.

In Europa Conference League action on Thursday, Aston Villa can clinch first with a win or draw over Zrinski.  They could also win the group with a loss provided Warsaw does erase the Villans' goal differential advantage.

In Europa League, all the EPL sides will move to the knockout rounds.  West Ham face SC Freiberg needing a win or draw to clinch first.  Brighton play Marseille and must beat them to get first in the group.  Liverpool have already clinched first.

Heads up.  You get Monday off then it's six straight days, another Monday off, then games every day until Christmas.  Almost as good as an Advent Calendar.