High and Dry

A weekend with virtually non-stop rain, nothing to do but watch soccer.  And yet, with all the precipitation, I came home from Subaru Park Saturday night relatively dry and neither of the Phillies games were postponed.  

Between EPL, MLS, Caraboa Cup and US Open Cup, we are a bit overwhelmed.  Let's see what we remembered.

Eight Is Enough

Five of these guys scored (IMAGO/Focus Images/Andy Sumner)

More than enough.  Newcastle had a easy time at Sheffield United Sunday, running roughshod over the Blades 8-0.  Not just eight goals but eight goals from eight different scorers - Longstaff, Burn, Botman, Wilson, Gordon, Almiron, Guimaraes, and Isak.  That helped the goal differential, which is now 4th best in the league despite the Magpies mediocre record of 3-0-3.  Two consecutive wins have them sitting 8th in the table.

They Can't Beat You With One Hand Tied Behind Their Back

I eschewed what turned out to be a great North London Derby (see below) in favor of seeing how Aston Villa would handle Chelsea.  I expected Villa would be a challenge for the Blues and I was correct.  They were 0-0 through 57 minutes with Chelsea having the  advantage on possession but otherwise basically even.  Then Gusto went in on Digne with, well, too much gusto (sometimes you have to go with the obvious) and got a straight red.  After the sending off, there was maybe a slight momentum shift to Aston Villa but the game really felt like it could go either way.  A laser accurate shot from Watkins gave Villa 1-0 lead at 73 minutes.  Again, the contest felt balanced and 1-1 still seemed like a real possibility.  But the equalizer was never forthcoming and Villa snuck out of London with all three points.  You can't say the points were undeserved but you also can't help but wonder what is up with Chelsea.  

London Derbies

As I said, watching Villa meant I missed the Arsenal - Tottenham contest.  By all accounts, this was a cracker of a match, with Spurs rallying twice to take away a 2-2 draw.  Son accounted for both Tottenham tallies.  

The other London derby  - Crystal Palace vs Fulham - was pretty good too.  They played to a 0-0 draw that featured 25 fouls and 5 yellows.  Yeah, pretty snarly.

Age Is Just A Number

Jonny Evans: Doesn't look a day over 34
AMA Getty Images

Jonny Evans made his first start for Man United in eight years on Saturday against Burnley.  He looked to have made it a special occasion with a solid header goal.  Alas, it was chalked off for offside.  He did however get an assist the goal by Fernandes, a stunning volley that is a candidate for the goal of the year and an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Evans added eight clearances and an interception for a solid player rating of 7.85; he also was named as Player of the Match.  Not a bad day for the 35 year-old.

Fun With Statistics

Everton grabbed their first win at Brentford in 71 years.  Sounds like an awesome talking point, right?  Well, until you unpack it.  They've only faced each other 23 times, just once between 1954 and 2021.  So the winless streak included a draw on 8/27/22, and losses on 11/28/21, 9/21/10 and 2/24/54.  So the winless road streak before Saturday's 3-1 win was just four.  Full record between the two clubs is here.

Red Card Update

Three more teams had a player sent off this weekend and the recipients went 1-1-1.  We already mentioned Chelsea.  Man City had a 2-0 lead over Nottingham Forest when Rodri was sent off early in the second half.  Nothing changed in the ensuing 45 minutes.  Wolves played about 50 minutes down a man and still got a 1-1 draw with Luton Town.  For the season, red carded teams are 5-3-6.

Failed Quads and Triples

Not talking skating but the consequences of various cup results.  Loss to Houston in US Open Cup ended Miami's admittedly long odds for a triple (Leagues Cup, US Open Cup, and MLS Cup).  Without Messi and Alba, they fell 2-1.  As discussed below, their MLS Cup chances are still in play.

Sometimes one is enough; Isak gets game winner vs Man City

With a 1-0 surprise win Newcastle ended Man City's quad hopes (League Cup, FA Cup, Champions League and EPL).  City played a heavily rotated line up but so did Newcastle.  To wit, the Magpies back line was Livramento, Lascelles, Dummett and Targett.  First half was all City possession but no serious threats.  Second half subs of Gordon and Bruno for the kids Miley and Hall worked wonders.  Isak scored at 53 minutes.  City never looked all that interested in getting a goal and that was the final.

What If They Had a Match and No One Shot on Goal?

You'd have Saturday night's snooze fest at Subaru Park.  The teams combined for six shots, none on target.  The stats stay Union passing accuracy was 73% but I guess all the balls rolled out by Blake to the feet of Wagner bring up the average.  Conditions were terrible.  Not much rain except for a few minutes of downpour and maybe some showers.  The wind however was a factor, blowing towards the river.  LAFC had a couple of scary chances but mostly looked content to contain the Union.  The home side did have a nice goal called back for offside.  One point against LAFC, even at home doesn't sound terrible but the play just wasn't very good.

Textbook stuff from Quinn Sullivan; Photo Phila Union

Wednesday there was a little more life the result was still a draw, 1-1 against FC Dallas.  First half was energetic and the U had their chances.  Sullivan did convert a great pass from Wagner to score the opener.  As seen here, the play was a good outlet from Blake, nice carry and cross from Wagner and a clinical first touch and finish from Sullivan, his second in three games.  They couldn't hold the lead though as a failed clearance allowed Velasco to take a shot from the top of the box.  Sometimes you have to give the other guy credit.  The second half was no where near as excited, at least for the home side.  Dallas did grab what looked like a late game-winner but fortunately it was called by for a handball by the scorer.

We got a break with Orlando's draw against Miami  and the Columbus draw with FC Dallas.  The two draws lift the U into third place.  But, don't look behind you because the next (last) four games are against the four teams behind us in the standings.  Frankly, they could finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th.  How is possible that after 30 matches, this team is still largely an unknown quantity.

Playoff Math - Miami's Chances

DC fell to Red Bulls and now aren't the target.  NYCFC moved into 9th with a 3-0 win over Toronto.  Miami, without Messi and Alba, grabbed an unexpected point at Orlando with a 1-1 draw.  NYCFC faces basically the same math that DC United did.  They have 37 with 3 to go while Miami have 32 with 5 to go.  In other words, strangely enough, despite being five points behind, Miami contol their destiny.  And here's a fun wrinkle: Miami host NYCFC Saturday night in a classic six pointer.  Alas, the Cupertino Overlords did not deign to put that one on free Apple so it's behind the paywall.  

Choices Again

The schedule makers are not helping here - there are six matches at 10 am on Saturday.  And they're not all that great.  We'll be doing Newcastle Burnley on Peacock (on replay because I'm reffing until noon).  The TV game is Man United - Crystal Palace.  Wait, we just saw them.  The two played an uninteresing 3-0 mid-week Carabao Cup match.  Opta suggests that Everton - Luton Town may be the most competitive choice.  Or you can go with Wolves - Man City, Bournemouth - Arsenal or West Ham - Sheffield United.

At least the Saturday early and late games look good.  At 7:30 we have Aston Villa - Brighton, which Opta has at 38/29/33; a little surprised that they give Villa the slight edge.  After the 10 am match of your choice, the feature 12:30 fixture (on USA not NBC this week) is Spurs and Liverpool.  That should be fun.  

Only one on Sunday, Nottingham Forest vs Brentford at 9 am on USA.  Then on Monday we have a London derby featuring Chelsea - Fulham at 3 pm on USA.  The Blues have fallen in Opta's assessement as they have that one at 30/30/40.  Yes, that means Chelsea are favored but only given a 40% chance of beating the Cottagers.  Ouch.  Oh, and there's a Tuesday match, Luton Town - Burnley at 2:30 on Peacock, the rescheduled home opener for which the EPL did not think Luton Town's venue, Kenilworth Road, was ready for Prime Time.

Ooh boy, also a full mid-week of Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League.  Lots to choose from.  We note Newcastle host PSG on Wednesday at 3 pm.  Oh to be Tyneside now that Champions League is here.

And MLS action too.  The Union are at Columbus but not on "free" Apple.  They also have a mid-week game hosting Atlanta on Wednesday.  

What a great time to be a soccer fan.  Football is life!

This Isn't Supposed To Be the NBA

You could have saved time by tuning in for just the last "quarter," or even the last five minutes, of several matches this weekend.  Frankly, you could have saved even more time by not tuning in at all for some of them (looking at you Bournemouth - Chelsea).

Results Not Performance

No goals from the run of play, just a lone PK and yet Newcastle got three points from a 1-0 win over Brentford and a point in the Champions League opener from a 0-0 draw at AC Milan.  Nothing to complain about here, right?  I mean, Brentford aren't a bad side and many teams would be happy to walk away with a draw at San Siro.

Well, let's start with Brentford.  The Magpies managed just two shots on target, one of those was Wilson's successful PK.  Howe used Tonali's injury to try a reshuffled lineup but it didn't result in improved attacking play.  There was a suggestion that the Magpies were already thinking about Tuesday's Champions League opener in Milan.  Whatever, the team still looked directionless.  While, it is true that Brentford really only threatened once and generally Newcastle controlled play, this kind of performance won't cut it in the long run.  

Tuesday in Milan was even worse.  The Magpies were lively enough and could move the ball okay but they generated just six shots, one on target.  Meanwhile, AC Milan were taking 25, getting nine on target.  Expected goals were 2.08-.19.  There were several flurries that required multiple saves, including clearances off the line by non-keeper personnel.  Take the point and get the hell out of there as quickly as possible.

They need to gel soon or we may be looking at a season wandering around mid-table.  I know, I know.  Three years ago that would have sounded awesome.  But as Inspector Clouseau would say, not anymure.

Nah, I'll Just Watch the Last Quarter

So, Doku could be the new goal scorer
that Man City so desperately needs

Soccer is not supposed to reward that behavior but this weekend it did.   Let's see.  Man  City were only 1-1 through 75 minutes against West Ham but grabbed two more in the closing minutes for a 3-1 win.  Arsenal didn't get their goal against Everton until the 69th minute; that 1-0 result keeps the Toffees winless and their fans restless.  Liverpool were down 0-1 to Wolves through 84 minutes yet managed a 3-1 win.  Villa were down 0-1 to Crystal Palace through 86 minutes but walked away with a 3-1 win; that match included two stoppage time goals and this week's YouTubeableMoment, the 87th minute equalizer of the highest quality from Jhon Duran.

For late game heroics though we go with Spurs.  They were down 0-1 at home to Sheffield United well into stoppage time.  They were peppering the United keeper without any luck until Richarlison snuck a header in at 90+8.  Not content with the draw, Kulusevski put another in at 90+10.  And they played for another five minutes after that.  You can check out the highlights here (should open to about 8:00 of the clip).  Must have been a contentious day - 27 fouls and 11 yellow cards.  But I can't say for sure as I only tuned in for stoppage time...

Man United Flunk Early Test

Which means of course that Brighton must have passed with flying colors.  The Seagulls appear not to have been troubled much, easily beating back Man United at Old Trafford no less.  Expected goals suggest a slightly tighter contest but at 1.94-.72, this looks like a legitimate A for Brighton.  

Chelsea continue to flounder, putting up a 0-0 draw with Bournemouth.  I did watch have this game on but am hard-pressed to remember much about it, except feeling like Chelsea didn't do anything to deserve the win.  Expected goals at 1.33-1.40 (in favor of Chelsea) suggest that finishing may have been less than clinical.  Also, there were 35 fouls (20 by Chelsea).  Probably part of the reason my attention wandered.  

Fulham got a 1-0 win over still pointless Luton Town while Nottingham Forest played Burnley to a 1-1 draw.  That latter contest would be an excellent video for a referee clinic - a lot of VAR and close decisions.

Forest Green Sighting

A different Forest - Scott McKenna (r) plays for Forest Green,
not Nottingham Forest, in my FM game

I hadn't realized that Scott McKenna, a center back that I acquired this season for my FM Forest Green side, plays for Nottingham Forest.  Fun to see him in action vs Burnley on Monday.  He would have been an accessory to allowing a goal if not for a VAR call that pulled the goal back.  But, he also made a number of important clearances and looked to lead Forest's back line well.  Just like he does for my Forest Green

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Steve: Did the announcer say Haaland was carrying a piece of fruit when he scored that goal?

Dennis: No, he said Erling took that shot with aplomb.

Buh Bye Supporters Shield

The good news for the Union coming off of 2-2 draws with Cincinnati and Charlotte is that they 1) have clinched a spot in the playoffs, 2) remain just two points behind second place Orlando with a game in hand and 3) sit in fourth place.  The bad news is that 1) their hold on 4th is precarious 2) they pissed away a two-goal lead in the draw with Cincinnati and 3) they had to claw their way back from 0-2 against 12th place Charlotte.

Can we please find some more minutes for this guy?

I could only follow the Cincinnati match through internet updates and did see the highlights.  I'm left with the impression that Cincinnati are probably a better team and just took their time showing it on Saturday night.  As in, the draw feels like a bad result only because we had the lead for awhile.  Kind of like me getting some pars early in a round only to get some double bogeys later; feels crummy but the final score is an accurate reflection of my game.

Charlotte was a little different.  Curtin didn't start some regulars and Elliott was out for getting a two yellows and the requisite red on Saturday.  Not much to separate the teams in a 0-0 first half.  Then Charlotte got two thanks to some loose play and give aways.  On come Carranza and Uhre, then McGlynn and Sullivan.  Turns out the mighty Quinn (apologies to Manfred Mann) Sullivan was the key change.  He came on in the 66th minute and in the 70th minute he worked some great wing play with Carranza, got a return pass in the box and buried. it.  In stoppage time, Mbaizo got tripped in the box and (stop me if you've heard this one) Gazdag converted the PK.  

Second or fourth place would offer some home field advantages for the playoffs, especially given potential opponents like Atlanta or Nashville.

No Messi? No Mercy

Lionel Messi sat out of Saturday's match against Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.  Depending on who you want to believe, it was either because Messi will not play on artificial turf or he was carrying a slight injury and Miami were not willing to risk him at this point.  Atlanta were happy to take advantage and put a 5-2 hurting on the Herons.  We don't think this put a huge dent in Miami's playoff chances as we didn't see them coming away with points here anyway.  Meanwhile, DC United did drop two points in a 0-0 draw with Charlotte.  

On Wednesday vs Toronto, Messi did start but left late in the first half with muscle fatigue and the score level at 0-0.  The Herons went on to win 4-0 anyway.  Down in DC, United dropped two more points with a 1-1 draw against Atlanta.

The math actually got a bit worse for DC United.  Miami's max did drop to 49, a number DC can't reach.  But Miami still have a reasonable shot at 43 points with wins over NYCFC, Chicago and Charlotte twice.  Even with the two draws, DC need eight points in four matches to be sure of beating to get to 44; that's even worse than the 10 points from six matches we cited last week.

The wrinkle here of course is Messi's injury (and Alba's too for that matter).  Miami coach Gerardo Martino tells us there's no way either will play versus Orlando this Sunday.  But that's not really the issue.  The question is will he (they) play in the more winnable matches.  

Europe

Yeah, I know there was a full slate of Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League stuff this week but I didn't get to take much of it in.  Besides Newcastle, the only other action I saw was Villa fall to Legia Warszawa 2-3.  Emery gambled a bit with a heavily rotated line-up and almost got away with it.  Hopefully I'll get to see more in Matchday 2 in two weeks.

Hard Choices

Interesting schedule this weekend, with some odd timing and four Sunday morning matches at 9 am.  At least there's no 7:30 am Saturday game. 

Three choices at 10 am Saturday.  The TV game is Man City hosting Nottingham Forest.  I'm inclined to go with the London Derby between Crystal Palace and Fulham on Peacock; that's likely to be most competitive fixture in this time slot.  Third option is Luton Town - Wolves, which is probably pretty competitive as well.

The NBC feature match is Brentford - Everton at 12:30.  The Bees are a handful at home.  Then there's an added bonus, a 3 pm match on Peacock between Burnley and Man United.  The Red Devils might be a touch angry after last week's defeat to Brighton.

The aforementioned logjam at 9 am on Sunday presents some hard choices.  The North London Derby is big, with Arsenal hosting Spurs.  You'd expect that to be on USA but it's Peacock so you can't DVR it.  But, I'd like to see how Aston Villa handle Chelsea; that's also on Peacock, not DVRable.  Opta says 45.3% to 26.2%  favor Chelsea with a 28.5% chance of a draw.  That sounds a bit pessimistic about Villa's chances given their relative forms.  Also on Peacock is Liverpool - West Ham.  Curiously, the TV game is Brighton - Bournemouth; they are both south coast teams but this is not a derby - they're 100 miles apart.  And it doesn't look like a particularly close contest, arguably the least interesting of the four choices.  Watch it be a barn burner.  

Last but not least, Newcastle continue to get their own time slot.  They'll face Sheffield United away at 11:30 on USA.  This should be a chance to for the Magpies to get things going, even if it is road game.  Opta has Newcastle with 42.9% chance of winning and a 29.6% chance of a draw.  I don't think a single point here is going to satisfy Geordie fans.

I'll be at Subaru Park Saturday night as the Union take on LAFC.  Though not the LAFC of last year, still expecting a tough match here and frankly a draw wouldn't be awful.  We have Wednesday match as well, vs. Dallas, also at home.  More optimistic for a result in that one.

The Miami playoff push is on the road at Orlando on Sunday.  DC United have Red Bull at home.  Miami also have a shot at their second trophy of the season as they face Houston for the US Open Cup.  It's not clear if Messi will be ready for that one.  

The forecast calls for lots of rain, which likely means my referee assignments will be cancelled.  Plenty to watch if that happens.

There Is No Heavier Burden Than Great Potential

[Ed note: Sorry for the delay in posting.  There was a wildcat strike by the Production Department after management was initially going to prohibit the drinking of beer during posting.  Management caved and we are back in business.]

Newcastle are certainly finding that out this year.  Aston Villa to some extent as well.  Fortunately the Union saved it from being a total loss of a weekend.  Even that was more hair raising than it needed to be.

Brighton Beach Horrors (apologies to Neil Simon)

Yeah, that ball is going to curl inside the post
 for the second of Ferguson's hat trick

Evan Ferguson's hat trick made sure that Newcastle's trip to the beach was unpleasant as could be.  I'm torn between thinking the 3-1 final is harsh or totally deserved.  The first goal was off a rebound that you really can't fault Pope for not holding, although it was his mistake that kept the ball in the Newcastle end.  The second was a 20+ yard shot that slipped inside the post and the third was a deflection.  The xG only favors Brighton 1.32 - .9 so there is some support for the "final score was harsh" side.  On the other hand, they were outplayed and somewhat directionless, an offense not working on all cylinders.  The Magpies goal came from Callum Wilson in stoppage time.  However you view the score though, Brighton were clearly the better side.

So far we have played last year's 1st, 5th, 6th and 7th place teams.  An aggressive pre-season projection might have had us with four points (home win versus Villa, away draw to Brighton) and less optimistic assumptions might have been as low as one or two points.  So how come it doesn't feel that way?  The ease of the victory over Villa created unreasonable expectations?  The points thrown away in the collapse against Liverpool?  The underwhelming performance at Brighton?  All of the above?  

IMHO, Eddie Howe needs to figure out the correct roles for Isak, Guimaraes and Tonali.  Guimaraes isn't playing like a No. 10 so maybe it needs to be Isak.  They did play better when both Wilson and Isak were on the pitch.  Way too early to be pushing any panic buttons but there are issues that need to be addressed.

Who's Your Doctor?

Adding injury the the insult of the 0-3 loss to Liverpool, Aston Villa saw another player leave the game with, well, an injury.  Diego Carlos limped off the pitch with some kind of knee problem after just 19 minutes.  Early reports are that the injury is not on the level of Buendia's or Mings' so maybe he won't be out too long.  

On the one hand, it's like Emery knew who was going to get hurt and planned for it with a brilliant transfer strategy.  Buendia down - we got Diaby.  Mings out - we got Torres.  Carlos hurt - we got Lenglet (just in time apparently).  On the other hand, what is up with this spate of knee problems?  It's like Newcastle and hamstrings.  

The injury aside, it was still not a fun game to watch.

Sheffield United and Everton Are No Longer Pointless

It's only September but the Sheffield United - Everton constant was the kind of fight for survival match that you might expect in April or May.  Both sides fought like relegation was going to be decided that day.  Those who got up early to watch this one were rewarded with a fierce, if not super high quality, match.  This is the kind of fight for survival game that you might expect in April or May.  You can get a sense of the intensity of the match from this week's YouTubeableMoment, with Pickford making two incredible saves in the dying seconds of the contest.

Wrong Again

 No fair going with a collared shirt

We can't seem to get the Saturday 10 am fixture selection correct. We started with with Burnley -
Tottenham but when the score hit 3-1 favor Spurs, we realized we'd pick wrong again.  Kompany though did up his fashion game with a collared shirt this time.

Turns out either Chelsea - Nottingham Forest or Brentford - Bournemouth would have been the better choice.  We did have time to switch over and see the last 35 minutes of Forest's 1-0 win over Chelsea; the Blues can't be happy about giving Forest all three points at Stamford Bridge.  Not that Newcastle have anything to brag about but Chelsea have now lost to West Ham and Nottingham Forest.  Brentford - Bournemouth turned out to be exciting as well, with Bryan Mbeumo's stoppage time goal salvaging a 2-2 draw for the Bees.  The fourth 10 am match ended with a result you might have expected, though the 5-1 final is quite deceptive.  Fulham hung in for a while and the xG was only 2.00 - 1.46 and that includes a City PK.  Oh, and there was a Haaland hat trick, his fifth in the Premier League.  I couldn't find the stat but he was by far the fastest ever to three and four so I'm guessing he now has the record for the fastest to five as well.

Sometimes you do get what you pay for (Reuters)

At least we got the Arsenal - Man United contest right.  That was a close one, decided by Declan Rice's stoppage time goal, which could have been a YoiTubeableMoment but not for Pickford's heroics for Everton.  The Gunners remain unbeaten, with three wins and a draw, matched by Spurs, Liverpool and West Ham.

A Hat Trick of Hat Tricks

Ferguson, Haaland and Son all managed the feat.  No red cards this week though.

If We Wanted to Watch in Sunshine We Would Follow La Liga

Dennis and I both expressed annoyance at the bright sunshine for most of Week 4's matches.  "It doesn't look right" was Dennis's observation.  And it's hard to watch if half the field is covered in shadow and the other in blinding sunlight.  Also, I saw at least one defender lose a ball in the sun.  Just go back to cloudy skies please.

Where's Our Apology? (Handling: Part CXVII)

In the late stages (stoppage time actually) of West Ham's 2-1 win over Luton Town, James Ward-Prowse's arm definitely connected with the ball.  You can see the incident here.  Paul Tierney did not call for handling and his VAR John Brooks did not send him to the monitor to review.  Part of me is happy that the call on the field stood.  But at first I was thinking it wasn't very consistent with other calls we've seen.  My memory is that many times that will be called on the field and further that VAR has often intervened.  This article at ESPN argues that the refereeing has been consistent, at least with respect to VAR's reluctance to overturn calls on the field related to handling.  I dunno.  If I were Luton Town, I might have been waiting for PGMOL to call with their apologies.

It's Not Our Fault You Got A Second Yellow

So it's hard to know what to do with the Union's 4-1 win over Red Bulls a few Saturdays ago.  The U certainly had the run of play but found themselves down 0-1 in the 11th minute.  The equalizer from Glesnes at 29 minutes was a mess in front of the goal but nothing less than they deserved.  At 44 minutes, Sean Nealis certainly looked to have given the U a big advantage as he got his second yellow for handling to break up a promising attack.  BFS Color Commentator Graham R immediately voice his concern that the advantage would lead to a boring second half. 

Red Bulls saw too much of this from Wagner

Fortunately, in this rare case, he was wrong.  But at first he was wrong in the wrong way.  It was Red Bulls, not the Union, who came out strong in the second half and only an amazing save from Andre Blake kept things level.  In retrospect, that was the turning point, as shortly thereafter, Damien Lowe went low on a great cross from Wagner to head in the go ahead goal.  A minute later, Wagner set up Carranza and the lead was 3-1.  Gazdag added a fourth in the 76th minute.  Oh, that was a Wagner assist too.

Except for the early minutes of the second half, this seemed like the Union's match.  Other than goals, it doesn't read like that on the stat sheet.  Shots were 11/14, shots on target 6/4, possession 53/47 and xG just 2.1/1.3.  So it ended up being a breeze but we'll never know what might have happened without the red card.  

If He Had A Hammer...

He'd probably break it.  Former Eagle wide receiver Freddie Mitchell was the guest drum striker for the match against the Red Bulls.  He managed several hits before the mallet head flew off.  They handed him a replacement mallet and he didn't miss a beat.  It's like they knew he would break it.

Miami Math

There was an error in last week's calculation (heads will roll) - Miami can reach 52 points by winning out.  And they passed a big test this weekend, beating LAFC 3-1, in LA no less.  Then, they added a win over Kansas City on Saturday.  Meantime, Chicago lost big time down in DC so they aren't even Miami's target anymore.  Nope, the Herons are chasing DC United.  They are just six points back with two games in hand.  Triple checking my math this time, Miami have eight to go which means a possible 24 points to add to their current 28, which (carry the one) totals 52 points.  To get to 53 points, DC need 19 points in their final six to add to their 34 to be assured of staying ahead.  Many will note that you can't get 19 points in six games.  The best they can get to is also 52 points.   Still sounds a bit crazy, except looking at their schedule, you can see 15 points that Miami have a reasonable chance of grabbing  - Toronto, NYCFC, Chicago and Charlotte twice.  So let's say they get to 43 points.  DC United would still need 10 in six to be safe - that's 1.67 per game, or better than they've done so far (1.21).  Handing over all calculations to our Corecshuns section to make sure the numbers are rite.  

What Did You Do Over International Break?

Well, hopefully Newcastle made some tactical adjustments.  They'll face Brentford at home in the NBC feature match 12:30 on Saturday.  Geez, this really should be three points.

Saturday starts with Wolves - Liverpool at 7:30 on USA.  Love when that 7:30 match is on USA so we can DVR.  Five choices for your 10 am viewing.  The TV games is West Ham - Man City; I sort of get that but City don't see be fazed by anybody these days.  Our choice is Man United - Brighton as this is a test for both sides.  For United, they will be looking to establish that they are top four material.  Brighton, well, almost the same thing, except maybe for them it's about showing they are top six.  Given our track record lately, you may want to pass.  Other choices are Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace (which is not a slam dunk for the Villans and we may be torn between that and Brighton contest), Fulham v Luton Town and Spurs v Sheffield United.

Sunday adds two more in Bournemouth - Chelsea at 9 and Everton -Arsenal at 11:30, both on USA.  Neither sounds all that great but what are you going to do.  The match week concludes with Nottingham Forest - Burnley Monday at 2:45 on USA.

The Union have their last gasp at the Supporters Shield on Saturday night.  That is, if they haven't already.  They'll face Cincinnati at Subaru Park.  A win would leave them eight points back with seven to play and a game in hand.  Admittedly, we're in Lloyd Christmas territory here.  The U also have a mid-week contest, Wednesday at Charlotte.

Miami have a tough road match versus Atlanta on Saturday but get Toronto at home Wednesday.  DC United's fixtures are Charlotte and Atlanta.  With two matches this week, Miami could already be in 9th place by the next BFS post.

Which will be Friday 9/22 by the way.  Assuming everybody stays on the job.