Top Four?

With a close win over Spurs, Newcastle slip into the top four for the first time during my tenure as a Magpie fan.  Aston Villa get an excellent new manager bounce.  The Union will take on NYCFC in the Eastern Conference Final.  Lots happening.

Pinch Me

Magpies have a "stacked" offense? Goal scorers
Wilson and Almiron (Photo: David Klein, Reuters)

Recall that I was expecting a competitive contest - maybe the most interesting match of the weekend -  as Newcastle took on Spurs in London.  Though Spurs fans are likely disappointed with the result, I think that's exactly what we got.  Newcastle took a 1-0 lead on a strange play that involved a collision between Lloris and Wilson; Spurs fans probably think it was a foul.  The Magpies doubled the lead on Almiron's mostly individual effort, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Despite the two-goal lead, this match felt very much in play and Harry Kane's goal at 54 minutes simply verified that we had a long way to go.  I kept telling myself it was the performance, not the result, that was important.  Still, squeaky bum time the rest of the way but Newcastle held on for all three points.  Statistics mostly say this was extremely close; xG at 538 even suggests that Spurs were hard done by the loss. This run continues even as Saint-Maximin and Isak remain unavailable.  Still, they have a respectable 20 goals in 12 matches. More importantly, they have yielded the league low 10 goals so far.  Trippier, Schar, Botman and Burns does sound like a great legal defense team.

Going to push back a little on the narrative that of course Newcastle have spent their way to this improved performance.  The Athletic notes that six of current starters (Schar, Joelinton, Longstaff, Wilson, Almiron and Willock) predate both the ownership and managerial changes.  Further, Pope, Burns and Trippier transfer fees were in the $12-17m range, hardly extravagant.  Guimaraes and Botman were over $40m each but certainly those are not outrageous.  Yes, the total for those five is over $130 m but when you match this against years of rarely spending more than $20 m a year, this level of spending is hardly irresponsible.  To me this is like a hospital that failed to keep up with capital improvements for over a decade and had to spend money quickly to get the plant up to reasonable standards.

So I'd argue that, to date, this isn't just about buying their way to the top.   We'll have to see if this continues.  They probably overpaid on Wood and maybe Isak too but that is arguably driven by the uncertainty of Wilson's health.  Also remember, the Financial Fair Play regulations will limit how much money they can pour into the squad.  Alas though, the signs are already appearing that people are going to lump us in with Man City, PSG and others of that ilk.  I guess we'll have to burn that bridge when we get to it. 

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis (as Aston Villa and Brentford kick off): Come on interim manager bounce!

Steve (after Leon Bailey scores in 2nd minute); Um, it's not supposed to work that fast.

Dennis: You shut up.

Hard to know for sure but it certainly looked to me that Aston Villa played like a team that was no longer scared of making a mistake.  First team manager Aaron Danks took the helm for this match and he benefitted from a quick goal by Leon Bailey followed by two from Danny Ings; 15 minutes in, Aston Villa were up 3-0 and cruising.  Danks must have thought this is way easier than I was expecting as the Villans rolled to a 4-0 win.  Looks like Danks will get to manage one more game before Unai Emery will take over.  We have discussed the new manager bounce in the past.  The research suggests that there may be some immediate improvement after a change but that more often than not, it's just attributable to reversal of bad luck.  Probably true, but sometimes you wonder if a group of players simply respond differently to different managing styles.  Obviously, Dennis is hoping for the latter.

Handling, Part CXI

Sigh.  Not again.  To all the managers, players, pundits and fans who proclaim "I don't know what a handball is anymore" in response to West Ham's goal being allowed after the ball hit Thilo Kehrer's arms in the buildup - clearly you don't.  You can see the incident here.  JFC, this is so not controversial.

First a reminder.  The rule was changed in March 2021.  The relevant section says it is handling if a player:

• Scores in the opponents’ goal:
• directly from their hand/arm, even if accidental, including by the goalkeeper; or
• immediately after the ball has touched their hand/arm, even if accidental
• Accidental handball that leads to a team-mate scoring a goal or having a goal-scoring opportunity will no longer be considered an offence. 

The people professing confusion even make the case as to why it wasn't handling.  Most of them said it clearly wasn't deliberate.  Once you say that, the case is closed.  Stop whining.  The rules are very clear.  You only have a complaint if you think the handling was deliberate.  Not too sympathetic with that view either but at least it's an interpretation that fits within the Laws of the Game.  But tuck your wrists against the sides of your stomach; unless you press your palms flat against the middle of your stomach (talk about unnatural positions!), your hands will form a small ledge.  Unless you see an outward movement away from the body, like a volleyball player scooping a ball, hard to say that's handling.  For me this is the Devon Allen Effect.  If you don't like the rule, change it but don't ask officials not to apply the rules as they are written. 

Additionally, note that the ball did not go directly from Kehrer to the goalscorer Zouma.  First it went to a Chelsea defender, who's header barely cleared the six and was sent back towards the goal by Soucek before Zouma headed it in.  What would have been interesting would have been the call had the old rules been in effect.  There were two intervening touches before the ball got to the goal scorer.  My sense though is that the rule reflected an aversion on the part of the powers that be to any goal that had a whiff of handling, accidental or not, so it probably would have been ruled out by VAR.  Side note, West Ham won 2-0.

  

Dropped Points  at the Top of the Table

First place Arsenal drew 1-1 with Southampton; some of the stats (xG at 1.45-.65 and possession at 59-41) make it look like Arsenal maybe should have grabbed all three but the Gunners only managed three shots on target, same as Southampton.  We already mentioned Spurs.  Chelsea and Man United also played to a 1-1 draw.  Chelsea looked to have sealed the win with a PK in the 87th minute until Casemiro slipped a header in during stoppage time.  And Liverpool's woes continued as they fell to Notthingham Forest 0-1. Hard to believe that 11 matches in the Reds already have four draws and three losses.  Last year they only lost two all season.

Haaland  Days

So only Man City came through unscathed, logging a 3-1 win over Brighton in which Haaland only managed two goals - and one of those was a PK. He's now averaging 1.65 goals per game, which would translate to 58 or so for the season.   The Premier League mark for a 38-match season is 32 by Mo Salah.  When the Premier League had 22 teams and played 42 games, the record was 34 by Andy Cole and Alan Shearer.  For the entire history of English first division football, the record is 60 set by Dixie Dean in a 42-match season back in 1927/28.  In terms of goals per game (in the season, not games played), the numbers are Dean 1.43, Salah .84 and Cole/Shearer .80.  Since Salah's mark, adjusted for matches, is superior to Cole and Shearer, I'd say the Premier League record is 32.  The first division mark, adjusted for 38 matches is 54.34.  I would argue that if Haaland gets to 55, that would be the first division record.

Finding Form?

Aston Villa weren't the only side to bust out of their slump.  Everton pretty much dominated Crystal Palace in their 3-0 win that catapulted the Toffees to 12th in the table.  Likewise, Leicester ran roughshod over the struggling Wolves 4-0, taking them out of the bottom three.  Fulham got another win (3-2 over Leeds) and have climbed to 7th.

This rapid movement up and down the table led Dennis to observe "we still have no idea who anyone really is yet."  That could be a good or bad thing, depending on who you are.   

Champions League

Without going into the gory details, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City are through to the knockout round with one group stage match to go.  Spurs, because they only managed a 1-1 draw with Sporting (more on that below), are not through yet but do control their destiny.  A draw next week against Marseille will be enough to advance.  

Speaking of gory details, neither Barcelona or Atletico Madrid will be advancing.  Yikes.

Offside, Part LXXII

Sigh.  Not again.   To all the managers, players, pundits and fans who proclaim "I don't know what offside is anymore" in response to Harry Kane's game winning stoppage time goal against Sporting being disallowed - clearly you don't.  You can see the incident here.  JFC, this is so not controversial.

The proverbial 1,000 words (Image: BT Sports)

First a reminder. The rule was changed in July 2022 to clarify the difference between deliberate play by versus a deflection off a defender.  Second, there is nothing (read nothing) in the laws about the direction of the ball.  All this chatter about the ball going backwards is like the plumage on the dead parrot - it don't enter into it - it's stone offside.  People are conflating a backwards pass with the attacker being behind the ball.  The latter is all that matters.  Given that the ball has a diameter of about nine inches (i.e. it's not a pin point), it is possible for a player to look level with the ball yet still be offside on a back pass. Granted, not much room but it is possible.  I'm not sure the ball went backwards anyway.  It's true that Royal was ahead of Kane but the ball was not.

It was close but the picture shows that Kane was slightly ahead of the ball.  Based on the revised interpretation, the deflection by the Sporting defender does not put him onside.  Yes, it was a close call and it did take a long time to for VAR to sort it out but this is 1) not a question subject to interpretation and 2) not a situation where there needs to be a clear and obvious error.  If the lines say you're offside, the call has to be overturned.  Also hilarious was FIFA referee Christina Unkel trying to explain it to former players Thierry Henry, Jamie Carragher, Micah Richards and Peter Schmeichel - seen here - proving once again, it's very likely that a woman is the smartest person in the room.  A quick tour of the internet Thursday morning suggests some cooler heads are starting to prevail (see here for example) but still much outrage.  Some of the comments concede that according to the Laws of the Game, this was the correct call but are still labeling it as "ridiculous."  For me this is the Devon Allen Effect.  If you don't like the rule, change it but don't ask officials not to apply the rules as they are written. 

Landmark?

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends us this article about what is believed to the first NCAA men's soccer match between two female coaches.  Probably don't have to explain the rules to these women. 

The Return of Yellow Balls

Somebody must have read the blog because this week we are back to a crowded Saturday 10 am schedule.  For BFS purposes, the big match is the our derby with Newcastle hosting Aston Villa.  Unfortunately Dennis will be in DC for NWSL final while I'll be refereeing so we will not be able to watch together, in person or virtually.  Slightly annoyed they have to play each other right now because Newcastle are hot and Aston Villa may be ready for a good run; it's a shame somebody has to drop points here.  That is one of the Saturday 10 am matches on Peacock

The official name is Hi-Vis Premier League
Nike Flight Match Balls but yellow balls sounds better

Looking over the rest of the fixtures, you have to say this is a "meh" match week, lacking in marquee matchups.  No, the biggest news for this week is probably that the yellow balls, supposedly new and improved, are back.  The EPL switches to these in late fall through early spring because "they deliver higher visibility in darker conditions."  The same article notes that with the Nike Flight balls, there have been 326 goals so far; that puts the league very close to on pace to break the season record of 1,072.

There are a couple of potentially competitive matches in the form of Crystal Palace - Southampton (Sat at 10 on Peacock) and Fulham - Everton (Sat at 12:30.  The latter may actually be deserving of the feature NBC match as the Toffees found their scoring boots last week but Fulham are punching way above their weight, as they say, sitting 7th in the table.

The top three all have winnable matches but we said that last week too.  Arsenal get to host Nottingham Forest Sunday at 10 am on USA.  The later start time tells us that the UK ends daylight savings time Sunday at 2 am.  Man City travel to Leicester for the 7:30 Saturday game on USA.   Spurs face Bournemouth on the coast (Sat at 10 on Peacock).   The other "names" have easier fixtures as well.  Chelsea get Brighton (ooh, Graham Potter returns to Amex Stadium - what will the reception be? - that's at 10 am Saturday on USA), Man United host West Ham (Sunday at 12:15 on USA) and Liverpool get to take on Leeds at Anfield in a rare Saturday 2:45 start on USA.  Did I miss anybody.  Yes, Brentford - Wolves at 10 am on Sunday on USA.

No Parties This Week Please

So the Union are exactly where there were last year - facing  NYCFC at Subaru Park for the MLS Eastern Conference Championship.  We hope at least one thing plays out differently.  Recall that 11 Union players were ruled out of the contest on Covid protocols.  The details of that story are here.  If you dig into the comments section (always risky I know), there is rampant speculation that attendance at a party may had led to the exclusions.  So, let us hope we do not have a repeat of that.

The injury updates read like Bedoya will play in this Sunday's rematch at Subaru Park (8 pm on FS1).  The bad news is that the stories are filled with quotes like:

I'm doing better. Day by day.

I hope [I'll be back in game shape by Sunday].  That's the game plan.  So I'm going to do everything I can to be back for that.

That doesn't sound like he'll be 100% for this match.  The good news is that 538 has the match at 69/31 in favor of the Union.  That's a pretty high percentage for them but still no sure bet.  NYCFC looked much better than they had in recent months in their 3-1 win over Montreal, on the road no less.  The two sides have had mild on-field incidents and this looks to be a solid rivalry.  I'm expecting an ugly, tense and close match. 

The Western Final is LAFC - Austin at 3 pm on Sunday on ABC.    Inquiring minds might ask why is the West Coast match early and the East Coast match late?  The Inquirer's Jonathan Tannenwald did the math for us:

Fox and ESPN split the broadcast rights to the conference finals and alternate rights to the championship game. Whichever network doesn’t have the championship game gets first pick of the conference finals. As Fox will televise the MLS Cup on Nov. 5 on its broadcast network (right before a potential Phillies-Astros Game 7), ESPN had first pick of the conference finals for a 3 p.m. broadcast on ABC.

On one hand, ESPN had a Western Conference final with LAFC stars Gareth Bale and Carlos Vela, and an Austin FC team whose fan base delivers significant TV viewership for one of the league’s smaller cities. On the other, ESPN could put the Union and NYCFC up against 1 p.m. Eagles and Jets games, and a 4:25 p.m. Giants game.

The choice was clear, and ESPN made it.

So it's a school night but Dennis and I will still be at Subaru Park.  I would proudly point out that I have not seen the Union lose at Subaru Park this year except that no one has seen them lose there this season - they are 13-0-5.  

At this point, all I can say is Doop.