Top Four?

With a close win over Spurs, Newcastle slip into the top four for the first time during my tenure as a Magpie fan.  Aston Villa get an excellent new manager bounce.  The Union will take on NYCFC in the Eastern Conference Final.  Lots happening.

Pinch Me

Magpies have a "stacked" offense? Goal scorers
Wilson and Almiron (Photo: David Klein, Reuters)

Recall that I was expecting a competitive contest - maybe the most interesting match of the weekend -  as Newcastle took on Spurs in London.  Though Spurs fans are likely disappointed with the result, I think that's exactly what we got.  Newcastle took a 1-0 lead on a strange play that involved a collision between Lloris and Wilson; Spurs fans probably think it was a foul.  The Magpies doubled the lead on Almiron's mostly individual effort, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Despite the two-goal lead, this match felt very much in play and Harry Kane's goal at 54 minutes simply verified that we had a long way to go.  I kept telling myself it was the performance, not the result, that was important.  Still, squeaky bum time the rest of the way but Newcastle held on for all three points.  Statistics mostly say this was extremely close; xG at 538 even suggests that Spurs were hard done by the loss. This run continues even as Saint-Maximin and Isak remain unavailable.  Still, they have a respectable 20 goals in 12 matches. More importantly, they have yielded the league low 10 goals so far.  Trippier, Schar, Botman and Burns does sound like a great legal defense team.

Going to push back a little on the narrative that of course Newcastle have spent their way to this improved performance.  The Athletic notes that six of current starters (Schar, Joelinton, Longstaff, Wilson, Almiron and Willock) predate both the ownership and managerial changes.  Further, Pope, Burns and Trippier transfer fees were in the $12-17m range, hardly extravagant.  Guimaraes and Botman were over $40m each but certainly those are not outrageous.  Yes, the total for those five is over $130 m but when you match this against years of rarely spending more than $20 m a year, this level of spending is hardly irresponsible.  To me this is like a hospital that failed to keep up with capital improvements for over a decade and had to spend money quickly to get the plant up to reasonable standards.

So I'd argue that, to date, this isn't just about buying their way to the top.   We'll have to see if this continues.  They probably overpaid on Wood and maybe Isak too but that is arguably driven by the uncertainty of Wilson's health.  Also remember, the Financial Fair Play regulations will limit how much money they can pour into the squad.  Alas though, the signs are already appearing that people are going to lump us in with Man City, PSG and others of that ilk.  I guess we'll have to burn that bridge when we get to it. 

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis (as Aston Villa and Brentford kick off): Come on interim manager bounce!

Steve (after Leon Bailey scores in 2nd minute); Um, it's not supposed to work that fast.

Dennis: You shut up.

Hard to know for sure but it certainly looked to me that Aston Villa played like a team that was no longer scared of making a mistake.  First team manager Aaron Danks took the helm for this match and he benefitted from a quick goal by Leon Bailey followed by two from Danny Ings; 15 minutes in, Aston Villa were up 3-0 and cruising.  Danks must have thought this is way easier than I was expecting as the Villans rolled to a 4-0 win.  Looks like Danks will get to manage one more game before Unai Emery will take over.  We have discussed the new manager bounce in the past.  The research suggests that there may be some immediate improvement after a change but that more often than not, it's just attributable to reversal of bad luck.  Probably true, but sometimes you wonder if a group of players simply respond differently to different managing styles.  Obviously, Dennis is hoping for the latter.

Handling, Part CXI

Sigh.  Not again.  To all the managers, players, pundits and fans who proclaim "I don't know what a handball is anymore" in response to West Ham's goal being allowed after the ball hit Thilo Kehrer's arms in the buildup - clearly you don't.  You can see the incident here.  JFC, this is so not controversial.

First a reminder.  The rule was changed in March 2021.  The relevant section says it is handling if a player:

• Scores in the opponents’ goal:
• directly from their hand/arm, even if accidental, including by the goalkeeper; or
• immediately after the ball has touched their hand/arm, even if accidental
• Accidental handball that leads to a team-mate scoring a goal or having a goal-scoring opportunity will no longer be considered an offence. 

The people professing confusion even make the case as to why it wasn't handling.  Most of them said it clearly wasn't deliberate.  Once you say that, the case is closed.  Stop whining.  The rules are very clear.  You only have a complaint if you think the handling was deliberate.  Not too sympathetic with that view either but at least it's an interpretation that fits within the Laws of the Game.  But tuck your wrists against the sides of your stomach; unless you press your palms flat against the middle of your stomach (talk about unnatural positions!), your hands will form a small ledge.  Unless you see an outward movement away from the body, like a volleyball player scooping a ball, hard to say that's handling.  For me this is the Devon Allen Effect.  If you don't like the rule, change it but don't ask officials not to apply the rules as they are written. 

Additionally, note that the ball did not go directly from Kehrer to the goalscorer Zouma.  First it went to a Chelsea defender, who's header barely cleared the six and was sent back towards the goal by Soucek before Zouma headed it in.  What would have been interesting would have been the call had the old rules been in effect.  There were two intervening touches before the ball got to the goal scorer.  My sense though is that the rule reflected an aversion on the part of the powers that be to any goal that had a whiff of handling, accidental or not, so it probably would have been ruled out by VAR.  Side note, West Ham won 2-0.

  

Dropped Points  at the Top of the Table

First place Arsenal drew 1-1 with Southampton; some of the stats (xG at 1.45-.65 and possession at 59-41) make it look like Arsenal maybe should have grabbed all three but the Gunners only managed three shots on target, same as Southampton.  We already mentioned Spurs.  Chelsea and Man United also played to a 1-1 draw.  Chelsea looked to have sealed the win with a PK in the 87th minute until Casemiro slipped a header in during stoppage time.  And Liverpool's woes continued as they fell to Notthingham Forest 0-1. Hard to believe that 11 matches in the Reds already have four draws and three losses.  Last year they only lost two all season.

Haaland  Days

So only Man City came through unscathed, logging a 3-1 win over Brighton in which Haaland only managed two goals - and one of those was a PK. He's now averaging 1.65 goals per game, which would translate to 58 or so for the season.   The Premier League mark for a 38-match season is 32 by Mo Salah.  When the Premier League had 22 teams and played 42 games, the record was 34 by Andy Cole and Alan Shearer.  For the entire history of English first division football, the record is 60 set by Dixie Dean in a 42-match season back in 1927/28.  In terms of goals per game (in the season, not games played), the numbers are Dean 1.43, Salah .84 and Cole/Shearer .80.  Since Salah's mark, adjusted for matches, is superior to Cole and Shearer, I'd say the Premier League record is 32.  The first division mark, adjusted for 38 matches is 54.34.  I would argue that if Haaland gets to 55, that would be the first division record.

Finding Form?

Aston Villa weren't the only side to bust out of their slump.  Everton pretty much dominated Crystal Palace in their 3-0 win that catapulted the Toffees to 12th in the table.  Likewise, Leicester ran roughshod over the struggling Wolves 4-0, taking them out of the bottom three.  Fulham got another win (3-2 over Leeds) and have climbed to 7th.

This rapid movement up and down the table led Dennis to observe "we still have no idea who anyone really is yet."  That could be a good or bad thing, depending on who you are.   

Champions League

Without going into the gory details, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City are through to the knockout round with one group stage match to go.  Spurs, because they only managed a 1-1 draw with Sporting (more on that below), are not through yet but do control their destiny.  A draw next week against Marseille will be enough to advance.  

Speaking of gory details, neither Barcelona or Atletico Madrid will be advancing.  Yikes.

Offside, Part LXXII

Sigh.  Not again.   To all the managers, players, pundits and fans who proclaim "I don't know what offside is anymore" in response to Harry Kane's game winning stoppage time goal against Sporting being disallowed - clearly you don't.  You can see the incident here.  JFC, this is so not controversial.

The proverbial 1,000 words (Image: BT Sports)

First a reminder. The rule was changed in July 2022 to clarify the difference between deliberate play by versus a deflection off a defender.  Second, there is nothing (read nothing) in the laws about the direction of the ball.  All this chatter about the ball going backwards is like the plumage on the dead parrot - it don't enter into it - it's stone offside.  People are conflating a backwards pass with the attacker being behind the ball.  The latter is all that matters.  Given that the ball has a diameter of about nine inches (i.e. it's not a pin point), it is possible for a player to look level with the ball yet still be offside on a back pass. Granted, not much room but it is possible.  I'm not sure the ball went backwards anyway.  It's true that Royal was ahead of Kane but the ball was not.

It was close but the picture shows that Kane was slightly ahead of the ball.  Based on the revised interpretation, the deflection by the Sporting defender does not put him onside.  Yes, it was a close call and it did take a long time to for VAR to sort it out but this is 1) not a question subject to interpretation and 2) not a situation where there needs to be a clear and obvious error.  If the lines say you're offside, the call has to be overturned.  Also hilarious was FIFA referee Christina Unkel trying to explain it to former players Thierry Henry, Jamie Carragher, Micah Richards and Peter Schmeichel - seen here - proving once again, it's very likely that a woman is the smartest person in the room.  A quick tour of the internet Thursday morning suggests some cooler heads are starting to prevail (see here for example) but still much outrage.  Some of the comments concede that according to the Laws of the Game, this was the correct call but are still labeling it as "ridiculous."  For me this is the Devon Allen Effect.  If you don't like the rule, change it but don't ask officials not to apply the rules as they are written. 

Landmark?

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends us this article about what is believed to the first NCAA men's soccer match between two female coaches.  Probably don't have to explain the rules to these women. 

The Return of Yellow Balls

Somebody must have read the blog because this week we are back to a crowded Saturday 10 am schedule.  For BFS purposes, the big match is the our derby with Newcastle hosting Aston Villa.  Unfortunately Dennis will be in DC for NWSL final while I'll be refereeing so we will not be able to watch together, in person or virtually.  Slightly annoyed they have to play each other right now because Newcastle are hot and Aston Villa may be ready for a good run; it's a shame somebody has to drop points here.  That is one of the Saturday 10 am matches on Peacock

The official name is Hi-Vis Premier League
Nike Flight Match Balls but yellow balls sounds better

Looking over the rest of the fixtures, you have to say this is a "meh" match week, lacking in marquee matchups.  No, the biggest news for this week is probably that the yellow balls, supposedly new and improved, are back.  The EPL switches to these in late fall through early spring because "they deliver higher visibility in darker conditions."  The same article notes that with the Nike Flight balls, there have been 326 goals so far; that puts the league very close to on pace to break the season record of 1,072.

There are a couple of potentially competitive matches in the form of Crystal Palace - Southampton (Sat at 10 on Peacock) and Fulham - Everton (Sat at 12:30.  The latter may actually be deserving of the feature NBC match as the Toffees found their scoring boots last week but Fulham are punching way above their weight, as they say, sitting 7th in the table.

The top three all have winnable matches but we said that last week too.  Arsenal get to host Nottingham Forest Sunday at 10 am on USA.  The later start time tells us that the UK ends daylight savings time Sunday at 2 am.  Man City travel to Leicester for the 7:30 Saturday game on USA.   Spurs face Bournemouth on the coast (Sat at 10 on Peacock).   The other "names" have easier fixtures as well.  Chelsea get Brighton (ooh, Graham Potter returns to Amex Stadium - what will the reception be? - that's at 10 am Saturday on USA), Man United host West Ham (Sunday at 12:15 on USA) and Liverpool get to take on Leeds at Anfield in a rare Saturday 2:45 start on USA.  Did I miss anybody.  Yes, Brentford - Wolves at 10 am on Sunday on USA.

No Parties This Week Please

So the Union are exactly where there were last year - facing  NYCFC at Subaru Park for the MLS Eastern Conference Championship.  We hope at least one thing plays out differently.  Recall that 11 Union players were ruled out of the contest on Covid protocols.  The details of that story are here.  If you dig into the comments section (always risky I know), there is rampant speculation that attendance at a party may had led to the exclusions.  So, let us hope we do not have a repeat of that.

The injury updates read like Bedoya will play in this Sunday's rematch at Subaru Park (8 pm on FS1).  The bad news is that the stories are filled with quotes like:

I'm doing better. Day by day.

I hope [I'll be back in game shape by Sunday].  That's the game plan.  So I'm going to do everything I can to be back for that.

That doesn't sound like he'll be 100% for this match.  The good news is that 538 has the match at 69/31 in favor of the Union.  That's a pretty high percentage for them but still no sure bet.  NYCFC looked much better than they had in recent months in their 3-1 win over Montreal, on the road no less.  The two sides have had mild on-field incidents and this looks to be a solid rivalry.  I'm expecting an ugly, tense and close match. 

The Western Final is LAFC - Austin at 3 pm on Sunday on ABC.    Inquiring minds might ask why is the West Coast match early and the East Coast match late?  The Inquirer's Jonathan Tannenwald did the math for us:

Fox and ESPN split the broadcast rights to the conference finals and alternate rights to the championship game. Whichever network doesn’t have the championship game gets first pick of the conference finals. As Fox will televise the MLS Cup on Nov. 5 on its broadcast network (right before a potential Phillies-Astros Game 7), ESPN had first pick of the conference finals for a 3 p.m. broadcast on ABC.

On one hand, ESPN had a Western Conference final with LAFC stars Gareth Bale and Carlos Vela, and an Austin FC team whose fan base delivers significant TV viewership for one of the league’s smaller cities. On the other, ESPN could put the Union and NYCFC up against 1 p.m. Eagles and Jets games, and a 4:25 p.m. Giants game.

The choice was clear, and ESPN made it.

So it's a school night but Dennis and I will still be at Subaru Park.  I would proudly point out that I have not seen the Union lose at Subaru Park this year except that no one has seen them lose there this season - they are 13-0-5.  

At this point, all I can say is Doop.

Not Afraid Anymore

Way too much going on.  Two sets of EPL matches, MLS playoffs, baseball playoffs.  No way I can do justice to everything that happened. 

Not Your Father's Newcastle

Used to be that Newcastle would show up scared at Old Trafford and play for a 0-0 draw, probably lining up in a 10-0-0.  Not this time.  You could see the difference right away.    That the final was in fact 0-0 obscures what the Magpies accomplished.  They took it to Man United right from the opening whistle.  No bunkering in this time.  Good attacking football.  Two consecutive shots off the woodwork.  In the first half, the Magpies were clearly the better side.  Second half belonged more to Man United, who had some good chances as well.  But the point is that Newcastle didn't shrink into a defensive shell.  

Facing Everton at home on Wednesday, we saw more of the same, with Newcastle on the front foot from the start.  Almiron had a real moment of quality with his strike in the 31st minute.  That was the only goal of the day and a clear choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The 1-0 final flatters Everton.  They had one shot, none on target.  You feel they could have played for another 2-3 hours and Everton still wouldn't have scored.

A footnote is that Newcastle played both matches without Saint-Maximin and Isak.  So 11 games in, they are 6th in the table, have yielded the fewest goals (9) and along with Arsenal and Man City, are the only sides with one loss so far.  Works for me.

Dennis at Fan Fest

The happy Aston Villa couple

Dennis and Brenna made it down to Dilworth Plaza for the Philly Fan Fest.  They saw Aston Villa play better.  It wasn't enough though as the Villans lost to Chelsea 0-2, thanks to howler from defender Mings and what looks like an error by keeper Martinez on a free kick. 

Gerrard: I need Indeed. Indeed you do.

Thursday's 0-3 defeat at Fulham was even more frustrating.  The club showed no spark, no creativity and an appalling work rate.  Already down 0-1, Douglas Luiz got sent off for "violent conduct" towards Mitrovich which looked more like 60% Luiz momentum and 40% Mitro moving into Luiz.  Shouts for a PK on Watkins were ignored and minutes later Cash was called for handling in the box; yes, his arm was extended but not sure exactly where he was supposed to hold it.  A late own goal completed the misery.  Steven Gerrard probably didn't make it back to Birmingham before he had been sacked.  

Coaches Misbehaving

You can't say that...

Neither Klopp or Guardiola distinguished themselves in an otherwise decent match that saw Liverpool edge Man City 1-0.  City had looked to take the lead on a Foden score but it was chalked off after the VAR spotted a foul by Haaland on the build up.  It was a clear foul and the call was correct.  Liverpool fans cheered loudly, as you expect they would.  Guardiola responded with sarcastic gestures.  Klopp was worse.  After City was not called for a foul on Salah, he confronted the Assistant Referee and earned himself a red card  We can only guess that he said the magic words.  Klopp has been charged with improper conduct by the FA but as of publication, we don't know what his sentence is.

Random Observations

The pile of results is simply too big to report on.  I know I watched a bunch of games but they are blurring together.

- After consecutive shutout losses to Tottenham and Newcastle in which they managed a grand total of no shots on target, Everton have fallen to 15th in the table, a mere point outside the relegation zone

- Leicester got four points in two matches and moved all the way from 20th to 19th

- Table continues to be compressed with just three points between 12th and 18th, and just six points between 7th and 15th

- Ronaldo once again proved the consummate teammate, sulking on the bench when not inserted into the match, then leaving the bench before the game was over, even though his team was wrapping up an important and impressive 2-0 win over Spurs.  As noted here, after being dropped from the squad for Saturday's match, he sort of apologized for his behavior.

Less Than Their Best

MVP, MVP
Photo: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Was still good enough for the Union to advance to the conference semis with a 1-0 win over FC Cincinnati.  The passing was atrocious (under 70% completion rate), aside from a few forays down the right wing, there wasn't a cohesive attack, and even the vaunted defensive unit allowed 15 shots.  The good news is that they blocked six of those shots and Blake had at least three important saves.  The better news is that Leon Flach got his first career MLS playoff goal in the 60th minute.  As you can see here, this was not the tidiest of goals but it still counted.  A nail-biting 30+ minutes later, the victory was in the books. 

Based on the sloppy and disorganized performance, we suggest that the Union did feel the absence of Bedoya, who didn't dress due to lingering issues with a hip injury.  Though not always a steadying influence in his time here, we do think this year he has provided the type of leadership that might have helped tighten up the team's performance.   Hopefully he will be back for the conference final a week from Sunday.

The Rest of MLS

Really?  This is where the NY MLS franchise held their playoff game

Tried to take in as many first round matches as I could.  Watched most a lot of Montreal - Orlando in the car, waiting for the parking lot to clear after the Eagles - Cowboys game Sunday night; didn't even bother to turn the engine on for an hour. Montreal were just better, though it took a while for them to prove it.  The 2-0 final, which included a stoppage time PK looks about right.

Also saw NYCFC - Inter Miami, played at my new candidate for worst MLS venue ever - CitiField.  NYCFC were just plain better and the 3-0 final, which ironically also includes a stoppage time PK, says it all.  FC Cincinnati won the chance to play the Union with a 2-1 win over the Red Bulls in a half full Red Bull Arena in Harrison.  Check out Cincy's game winner here.

Labor shortages meant BFS had no staff to cover the Western Conference matches.  I did see the second half of the El Traffico semi-final.  The Galaxy came back from 0-1 and 0-2.  The final was 3-2 favor of LAFC, decided on stoppage time goal by Arango.  Yeah, it was a classic.

Sunday 9 am Is the New Saturday 10 am?

The closest thing we have to a marquee matchup is Chelsea - Man United, the feature match Saturday at 12:30 on NBC.  Tightest fixture is probably Everton hosting Crystal Palace Saturday at 10 on USA; 538 has that at 38/34/28.  Given their respective recent forms, Tottenham - Newcastle (Sunday at 11:30 on USA) could be a good one too.  Not gonna predict a Magpie win here but I do think it could be a highly watchable contest.  

Used to be that Saturday 10 am was the most crowded time slot for EPL fixtures.  Lately, they've been cramming them in at 9 Sunday morning. This week you have four choices for that time slot including five sides that go into the weekend within three points of the relegation zone. We'll be watching Aston Villa - Brentford, hoping that Villa will benefit from the new manager bounce. That one is on Peacock.  Neutrals might opt for the Wolves - Leicester contest on USA.  In other years this would have been a battle for a Europa League spot but now it's a relegation relevant fixture.  Leeds - Fulham on CNBC will also be of interest to relegation afficionados.  Your last option is Southampton - Arsenal.

Rounding out the schedule, Liverpool go to Nottingham Forest for the early Saturday match on USA that will likely do nothing for Forest's relegation chances. Man City should handle Brighton (Saturday at 10 on Peacock) and we have a Monday match with West Ham hosting Bournemouth at 3 pm on USA.  

Mid-week has Champions League and Europa fixture (schedules here and here).  They are in match five of the six match group stage.

The other two MLS conference semi-finals are Sunday.  Montreal hosting NYCFC should be a cracker at 1 pm.  Not as familiar with Austin or Dallas, though 538 says Austin are big favorite.  Both matches are on ESPN. 

Meanwhile, enjoy the day off and watch the Phillies.

Takin' Care of Business

Apologies to Bachman-Turner Overdrive

Newcastle and the Union efficiently dispatched their opponents this weekend. Lots of other stuff too.

You Can Only Beat Who You Play - Part II

No one has doubted Miggie's work rate
but now he's backing it up with goals (Getty picture)

Brentford at St. James' Park should be three points for Newcastle so the 5-1 final is not completely surprising.  The Magpies had looked to fall behind early but VAR rescued them with a correct reversal for offside.  Guimaraes converted a spell of Newcastle dominance into a 1-0 lead with a nicely placed header off a Trippier cross.  Jacob Murphy doubled the lead shortly after with a goal off a nice pass from Wilson.  An Ivan Toney PK briefly derailed the rout.  I thought the handling call on Burns was incredibly harsh; he was attempting a leaping header and his arm - as will happen when you strain to jump - was above his shoulder and the ball struck it.  Letter of the law maybe but still dumb.  No matter.  Guimaraes got a second goal two minutes later. all he did was steal the ball, dribbled to the goal and delivered a laser shot from 24 yards out.  Add in the context of an immediate response to the Brentford goal and it sounds like this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Almiron continued his run of form with a goal at 82 minutes and they finished the scoring with an own goal in stoppage time.

Certainly Brentford contributed to their own downfall with two howlers of mistakes and an own goal.  Still, Newcastle clearly were the better side here.  And they are not at full strength yet.  ASM and Joelinton did make second half appearances and look ready to return to the starting XI, but Isak is likely a week or two away.  Good work from Longstaff and Murphy to fill in during the interim.  The Magpies finished the weekend 6th in the table.  Yes, they have benefitted from a softer schedule recently but remember they have already played Man City and Liverpool

Distracted Viewing

So I saw a bunch of the matches but viewing was either incomplete or distracted.  I did see all of the close contest between Brighton - Tottenham.  The stats say the Spurs 1-0 victory might be a touch lucky but no doubt they played well against a solid team at home.  The match had an extra level of emotion for Spurs as their beloved trainer, Gian Piero Ventrone, passed away earlier in the week at just 61 from leukemia; you can read more about Ventrone here.  As you will read, he had a long history with Conte.

I only saw the second half of Arsenal's 3-2 win over Liverpool.  The Reds fought back from 0-1 and 1-2 deficits but were undone by a PK in the 76th minute.  I'm still not convinced that Jesus was fouled but probably not an obvious error for VAR to overturn.  At some point, we may have to concede that Arsenal may be the second best team in the league.  In the 12/24/20 BFS post, we made fun of Jamie Carragher for saying the until Arteta brought in 5-6 players of his choice it was not fair to judge him.  Apologies Jamie, it appears you were correct.  Speaking of second best teams, Liverpool are certainly working hard to convince us that they aren't.  They now sit 10th in the table and only Nottingham Forest, Leicester and Wolves have fewer wins.  

I had Crystal Palace - Leeds on the TV but can't remember much except that Palace got a late goal to win.  We fit in parts of  Everton - Man United before and at half time of the Union match.  MUN did just enough to take away a 2-1 win at Goodison Park and have climbed to 5th in the table after a shaky start.  

Not Good Enough

Though not as distressing as the draw to ten-man Leeds last week, Aston Villa's 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest shows that they have still not sorted out what kind of team they want to be.  The bad news is that they are perilously close to the relegation zone but the good news is that the mid-table is so condensed, a win or two could move them to the top half of the table.  But most concerning is that win, lose or draw, they just don't seem to be playing well.  Jordan Campbell at The Athletic offered this pithy assessment of Villa under Steven Gerrard.

As a manager, his team’s way of attacking can be so structured and repetitive that it can leave you feeling cold. That is what is happening now with the lack of individual expression within his system being seen in the three games since the City draw.

We always take these things with a grain of salt but this suggests that Gerrard position is under pressure.

He may take comfort that at least he's not in Brendan Rodgers' shoes.  Leicester may have restored their position as a relegation candidate with a 1-2 loss at Bournemouth.  Wolves 0-3 thrashing by Chelsea wasn't unexpected but does confirm that they could be right there too.  West Ham's 3-1 win over Fulham suggests that those two sides are heading in opposite directions after unexpected starts for both.  Southampton can't be feeling too good either; Erling Haaland only managed one goal against  them but they still lost to Man City 4-0.

Fun With Europa

Lots of Champions League action on Tuesday and Wednesday, which you can read about here.  For some reason, we had more fun watching Europa League matches, maybe because they simply had goofier club names.  First we saw Arsenal take on Boba Fett Bodo/Glimt.  The Yellow Horde made this a close match though some of it may have been Arsenal not at their best; the final was 1-0 Gunners.  Even more fun was Man United versus Onomatopoeia Omonia.  The Cypriot side fought bravely and went into stoppage time hanging by a thread to a 0-0 draw.  Alas, a late goal from McTominay turned Cinderella's carriage back into a pumpkin.  

Conversations That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: Arsenal are missing some key players for the match against Bodo/Glimt.

Steve: Yes, but Jesus is expected to return Sunday

Dennis: This is getting too easy

Steve: Hey look, former USMNT player Mix Diskerud just entered the match for Omonia

Dennis:

Fun Talking Point Shot to Hell

Until Copenhagen managed a 0-0 draw with Man City in Champions League this week, the only sides to have taken points from City in EPL or CL competition were BFS home sides Newcastle and Aston Villa.  We note that Man City had a man sent off at 30 minutes and Haaland did not play.  So big deal, you drew Man City who had two hands tied behind their back.  

Union Win the Eastern Conference

Gazdag's hat trick took him to 22 goals, one off the league best

Very nice of the Union to get down to business early on Sunday.  Daniel Gazdag had the U up 1-0 in the 4th minute.   Though one felt they were mostly in control, they took their time putting the second one on the board.  Uhre's goal at 42 minutes made things even easier.  Gazdag got two more in quick succession at 60 and 63 and the deed was done.  Mild disappointment that LAFC lost, meaning the Union had equal most points for the season but lost the Supporters Shield on the tiebreaker, number of wins.

Many all-time MLS "bests" for this season.  Among them, seventh highest point total ever, second best goal differential, fifth highest goals scored.  I can't find it now but I believe the 26 goals allowed is the fewest all-time since the MLS moved to the 34 game season.  Still reading about how this means nothing if they don't do well in the playoffs.  Drive me nuts.  This is an excellent season as is.  The MLS insistences on following the American obsession with playoffs doesn't change that.

For the record, Laura did sort of watch Sunday's match, in between taking Dennis's dog Kaya out to the backyard so we could watch the game in peace.  In retrospect, we may have put too much blame on her for last week's 0-4 loss at Charlotte.  BFS sincerely apologizes for any distress our inferences may have caused her.

It's Always About Health Care

BFS Health Care Consultant Jack W sends along this story about his former boss at United Health Care connection to MLS.  There's almost always a link to the health care in any sports franchise.  Check out the sponsors or take a look at the advertising conspicuously posted around any sports venue.  Maybe part of the reason health care is so expensive?

More Busy

With mid-week EPL matches and MLS playoffs,  we're looking at packed week with Monday our only footballess day [check that, two MLS games that day!].  The bad news is that I see a lot of darker orange on the 538 website, indicating a shortage of competitive matches.  

We start with Friday football at 3 pm (USA) as Brentford host Brighton.  For the weekend, the most important match looks to be Liverpool versus Man City at Anfield.  That's at 11:30 on Sunday on USA.  Even as the visitor, City are solid favorite here.  For the weekday matches, Man United - Tottenham on Wednesday at 3:15 on Peacock is the best choice as well as one of the tighter fixtures of the week.

Saturday's matches are spread out so you don't have to make tough choices.  Start with Leicester - Crystal Palace at 7:30 on USA; these are the kind of matches the Foxes will need to win if they are to pull out of the relegation funk.  At 10 you can choose between surprise mid-table entries Fulham-Bournemouth or relegation candidates Wolves - Nottingham Forest.  The latter is the USA TV option.  The NBC feature match is Spurs hosting Everton; Tottenham have had a way of winning yet making every match close so this might be fun.

For some reason the schedulers have piled four games into the 9 am slot on Sunday.  Newcastle travel to Man United for the one that USA TV has.  In the past, this was a hopeless cause but now I hold out some hope for a result.  Other choices are Aston Villa-Chelsea (yikes a tough match to "find yourself"), Leeds - Arsenal or Southampton - West Ham (538 has this has the most competitive match of the week).  The discerning reader will note nary a London derby in the weekend's fixtures.

Things are less well-distributed for the mid-week fixtures.  Tuesday has Brighton - Nottingham Forest at 2:30 (USA) and Crystal Palace - Wolves at 3:15 (Peacock).  Wednesday we will be going with Newcastle hosting Everton at 3:15 on Peacock; definitely expecting points out of that one.  A crowded day, the previously mentioned Man United - Spurs match is clearly your best choice.  But, you have three other choices - Bournemouth - Southampton, Brentford - Chelsea (phew, that was a long time to go without a London derby) or Liverpool - West Ham.  Matchweek  12 wraps up on Thursday with Fulham - Aston Villa and Leicester -Leeds.  

MLS playoffs start Saturday.  Full schedule is here. We will be at Subaru Park on Thursday as the Union will take on TBD.  But the brackets are set so TBD has to be either New York Red Bulls or FC Cincinnati.  The U will be solid favorites against either.

Yeah, sure I missed something in here but there's a lot going on.  

 

Man Down

Several teams played a man down this weekend.  Some were punished, others were not.  The Union played like they were down a man but were not.

You Can Only Beat Who You Play

Chalobah did go in with force; whether or not it was red,
it did make the day easier for Newcastle (Photo: Reuters)

Newcastle were missing players (ASM, Joe L Linton, E-sock) but at least had 11 on the pitch, unlike Fulham.  Maybe the red on Chalobah in the 8th minute was harsh but if so, not by much.  Dark orange at least.  The Magpies, who had the run play up to that point anyway, were quick to take advantage with Callum Wilson celebrating his return with a poacher's goal in the 8th minute.  Nothing cheap about the second goal hook-up between Guimaraes and Almiron.  Both the pass and the finish were top shelf as you can see in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Early candidate for Goal of the Year.  Two more and even I was counting the three points before the final whistle.

We can discount this as much as we want - it was Fulham, a man down, etc - but it's still a solid win, especially given the quality of personnel who didn't even dress for the match.

Good Derby

Spurs were down 1-2 to Arsenal mid-way through the second half but it had been more than a decent North London derby to that point; good back and forth action with both sides getting chances.  Tottenham looked like they might have the equalizer in them and we were poised for an exciting finish.  That is, until Royal got sent off at 62 minutes.  Definitely a harsher call than Chalobah's.  You can see the play here (notice that Xhaka and Richarlison nearly get into it - would have been terrible if two of my favorite players had been sent off).  Arguably, Anthony Taylor should have gone to the monitor to check this one.  No doubt, he saw a straight leg coming in high at a direct angle; replays showed it was actually more of glancing blow.  Unfortunately, it killed whatever excitement neutrals and Spurs fans might have enjoyed for the finish.  Arsenal added one after the sending off, effectively ending the match.  

Bad Derby

Scary, very scary

Last week we noted that the 538 prediction for Man City Man United suggested it would be a derby in name only.  They were right.  Foden got City up in the 8th minute.  Though City continued to dominate, the next score took awhile.  Haaland got one at 34, then another at 37.  Foden added his second at 44 minutes and there was no need to pay close attention from there on in.  The final was 6-3 with both Foden and Haaland logging hat tricks.  United's last two goals came in the closing minutes only serving to make the final look closer than it was, not that 6-3 sounds all that close to begin with.

Exception to the Rule

Aston Villa, alas, showed that a man advantage doesn't always convert to three points in the table.  Villa were probably the better side for the first half and looked to be in excellent shape when Sinisterra got sent off for his second yellow at 48 minutes (surprised the announcers didn't go for the lay up - as in you couldn't say there was nothing sinister in that challenger).  Villa dominated but could not score and were left wondering how they were leaving with a 0-0 draw.   All the stats say Villa win (56% possession, shots 19-6, shots on target 7-1, xG 1.95-.5), but the table says one point.

He's Not Dead Yet

We should be careful about writing off Brighton after Graham Potter's departure.  I didn't see the match, only the progression of the score.  The Seagulls had a 2-0 lead against Liverpool but we watched as the scoreline inevitably turned back in Liverpool's favor and the Reds carried a 3-2 lead late into the match. Welcome to life without Graham Potter.  Not so fast.  Brighton got the equalizer at 83 minutes and came home with a unexpected point that keeps them fourth in the table.

Not Living Lage Anymore

West Ham won the match of "used to be top sides that are struggling" 2-0 over Wolves.  That contest was Bruno Lage's swan song for Wolves.  He was let go on Sunday.  Seems like they have never been the same since Nuno Espirito Santo left for Spurs.  Julen Lopetegui, himself just sacked by Sevilla this week, is considered the most likely replacement.

In Other Action

Crystal Palace gave Chelsea fits all day but were denied a point on a late goal from Conor Gallagher.  Everton slow start looks over - 2 wins and 4 draws in last six.  Not so much for Nothingham Forest, who have lost five straight - some to relegation rivals - after an okay start.  The 4-0 final was Leicester's first win of the season and allowed the Foxes to trade places in the table with NF; yeah they are 19th but it's better than 20th.

Conversation That Did Take Place But Shouldn't Have

Dennis:  Why do you say Lloris reminds you of the disciple Peter?

Steve:  Because they both denied Jesus three times.

We Blame Laura

Came back from a great dinner at Jansen's Saturday night and was fully prepared to watch some TV with Laura and I'd take in the dvred Union match later.  Surprisingly, she was up for watching the game right away.  She doesn't usually view a full match so we are thinking she jinxed us.  How else to explain the absolutely dreadful performance (worst of the season?) in the 4-0 loss at Charlotte?  Even Laura suggested that maybe it was her fault.  Well, that and maybe the porous defense that showed an uncharacteristic lack of marking and closing down. 

Coming on the heels of the lackluster 0-0 draw in Atlanta, we have some cause for concern here.  The positive view would be that they got the stinker out of the way before the playoffs and will be much better prepared going forward.  We also note Bedoya was not available for either of these two games.  I've always been a little skeptical of his on field leadership; sometimes his body language doesn't seem very encouraging to his teammates. These last two data points suggest he may bring more than I realize.

Both Montreal and LAFC won their contests.  The Union still lead the East by two points.  The Supporters Shield, however, is gone based on LAFC's 2-1 win over Portland.  That one had late drama as the Timbers scored in the 81st minute to level things at 1-1.  A draw would not have been great for the Union's chances but at least it would have left things open for the final weekend.  LAFC wasn't interested in that and Denis Bounaga scored his first goal for them in the 95th minute to clinch the Supporters Shield.  The goal, mostly individual skill with a touch of luck, can be seen here.  In reality, the Supporters Shield was always a long shot.  The spate of early season draws came back to haunt them.  

This Weekend

Probably won't be raining all weekend like it was last Saturday and Sunday.  And the matches aren't quite as appealing either but still some good stuff.

If you believe 538, and we tend to do so, the best match of the weekend could be Brighton - Spurs.  Probably in part because Spurs are on the road, 538 has it 37% for Brighton, 39% for Spurs and 25% for a draw.  That's the 12:30 feature match on Saturday on NBC.

Newcastle face stubborn Brentford at St. James' Park (Saturday at 10).  This will not be as easy as 10-man Fulham but we still have to be thinking three points here.  We expect Joe L Linton back and ASM is a possibility; Isak is still out until at least the following week and maybe more.

How will Chelsea fans react to Costa in Wolves kit?
Image: Craig Mercer/MB Media/Getty Images)

Surprisingly, the Newcastle-Brentford fixture may be your best option at 10 am on Saturday and the TV guys maybe think so too as that's the one on USA with the rest on Peacock.   Man City hosting Southampton doesn't look close.  Wolves taking on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge doesn't sound too competitive, though you might want to tune in to see how the Chelsea fans greet Diego Costa. He played for about 30 minutes last week and might start here; he did seem to boost their offense a bit so you wouldn't say he was a sheep in Wolves clothing.  Not sure what to make of Bournemouth - Leicester; if the Foxes have found their footing, they could make things tough for the Cherries.

Sunday is packed.  The drawing card is Arsenal hosting Liverpool at 11:30 on USA.  Recent form suggests you bet against the Gunners at your own peril.  At 538, Liverpool are prohibitive favorites (43% to 34%).  Two games at 9 am to get warmed up for that one - Crystal Palace vs Leeds (USA) and West Ham vs Fulham (CNBC).  Ho hum, another London derby - according to my calculations, there have been on average 1.33 London derbies per week through nine match weeks and no match week has been without one.  For some reason, we get a bonus match on Sunday at 2 pm featuring Everton - Man United (USA).  Monday concludes the match week with Aston Villa traveling to Nottingham Forest for a 3 pm contest on USA.  

The Union - and the rest of MLS - finish their season on Sunday.  Eastern Conference games are at 2:30 and Western Conference games at 5:00.  There are some things still to be decided  - some playoff spots are up for grabs and a few teams can improve (or damage) their playoff seeds.  The Union face Toronto at Subaru Park (PHL 17); win for them, a loss for Montreal (who play at Miami) or a draw for both would be enough for the U to claim the conference title and home field for everything but the final. 

But, shhh, don't tell Laura what time the game is.