A New Hope?

The EPL season opens Friday with all the hopes and fears that come with that.  Another solid performance from the Union

Missed the Extra Point This Time

For the third straight weekend, I watched the Union replay on ESPN+ late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning.  This time I watched with my sister on her laptop at my parents' place in New Hampshire.  I pointed out to her that it is not always this easy for the Union.  

Textbook form from McGlynn

There were shades of the DC United match as they built a 3-0 lead in the first half and added three more in the second half for a 6-0 pasting of the Houston Dynamo.  Gazdag was in the middle of it of course,  McGlynn got his first ever for the U (an incredibly well-taken free kick for this week's YouTubeableMoment) and Uhre got two more.  Yes, Houston are not a good side.  But now we are seeing the Union act like a powerhouse, brushing off the weaker teams as opposed to playing down to their level.  

We did get help from Montreal, who managed a 0-0 draw with NYCFC.  So the Union lead is now three points, though NY still has a game in hand.

Predictions

For once Newcastle go into a season not dreading the threat of relegation because 1) they were pretty good for the last few months of last season 2) they improved the squad somewhat - though not as dramatically as we might have hoped and 3) if there's a whiff of relegation come January, the new owners will [over]spend whatever is necessary to avoid that fate.

Question:  Newcastle's finishes the last five years are 11th, 12th, 13th, 13th, 10th.  So how come I feel like Newcastle spent those five years a heartbeat away from relegation?  Dennis would probably say it's because I'm a pessimist.  Maybe.  But, look at the table below; except for 2019-20, they spent at least the first half of each season way too close to the drop zone.  

Usually they were on pace for a mid-30 point total, which typically means you're no more than a short slump away from 18th place or worse.  Their second halves would generate a low to mid-50s point total, which leaves the drop zone comfortably back in the rear view mirror.  If they had flipped these first and second halves, it probably would not have been so stressful.  I have no memory of the 2019-20 first half.  Probably spent it saying this won't last.  And, I was right.

I sampled only two sets of predictions this year - 538 and The Guardian.  I would highly recommend The Guardian series because of fun stuff like "If Netflix did a documentary on this team..."  Also, they assess which players may feature at the World Cup.  The Newcastle preview is provided here.  You can use that link to track down all the others.

So Man City and Liverpool are projected 1-2 by both sources.  And probably any other source you can find.  I'm shocked, shocked I tell you.  The Guardian have Newcastle all the way up at 7th while 538 seems more down-to-earth at 13th.  I should mention that I compared last year's projections to actual and by far the most accurate were 538's - 20-30% better than any other.  Absent the signing of a marquee type attacking midfielder, I think The Guardian overshot the Magpies' potential.  You can see 538's projected order of finish here.  Selected projections from The Guardian include Aston Villa at 10th (compared to 7th at 538), Spurs at 3rd (4th in 538) and Man United 6th (same as 538).

Too Much Peacock

So the first weekend is loaded up with eight games on Peacock and just two on USA.  Makes multi-game viewing much harder.  

The season opens Friday with a London derby featuring Crystal Palace v Arsenal at our favorite venue, Selhurst Park.  That's at 3 pm on USA.  We never pass up Friday afternoon football.

Hopefully this weekend will not see a repeat of the pitch
invasion that occurred at St. James' Park when Newcastle
faced Nottingham Forest in the 6th round of the FA Cup

Saturday, the 7:30 early bird special is Fulham - Liverpool.  Welcome back to the big show guys! Four to choose from at 10 am, all on Peacock.  We, of course, will be taking in Newcastle hosting newly promoted Nottingham Forest; 538 likes the Magpies chances but not as much as you would think - 54/20/26 (chance of Newcastle win/Fulham win/draw - we will use that convention a lot).  Dennis has Aston Villa at Bournemouth covered.  Spurs should be solid taking on Southampton at home.  The neutral looking for a competitive match might choose the Leeds - Wolves contest. No feature match on NBC but USA will carry the Everton - Chelsea match at 12:30.

Three more on Sunday, again all Peacock.  At 9, we'll likely go with Man United hosting Brighton over Leicester - Brentford.  West Ham and Man City have the 11:30 slot all to themselves.

MLS action continues with the U heading to Cincinnati; that's Saturday at 7:30 on PHL-17 or ESPN+. This should be another win but on the road they'll need to be careful.  NYC is on the road to Columbus so maybe we can get some help again.

Yikes, let the games begin.