The World Turned Upside Down

(apologies to  Lin-Manuel Miranda)

After a crazy weekend, the EPL top ten now includes Leeds, Brighton, Newcastle, Fulham, Brentford, Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest.  Okay, it's only three matches in but it's still weird.  

Performance and a Point!

With Newcastle level at 1-1 versus Man City in the first half, I texted Dennis to say that regardless of the result, I was going to be happy with the performance; even if they ended up losing, the effort was awesome.  I stand by that view, even though we had a 3-1 lead before finishing with a 3-3 draw.  The point was a bonus.

This was not the expected massacre and Lloyd Christmas was correct - there was still a chance. Far from a blowout, this 3-3 draw with Man City was probably the most watchable match of the weekend for the neutrals.  Not too bad from the Toon Army perspective either.  Didn't look like it would be that way when Newcastle fell behind in the fifth minute.  Rather than wilt though, Newcastle responded well, arguably capturing the run of play.  Almiron's diving leveler was deserved and so was Wilson's side footer to take the lead.  Things got nuts when Trippier put in a free kick from 25 yards out. We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment. 

Trippier is a tripper but not guilty of serious foul play
Getty Images

Of course, this being Man City, we had to wait for both shoes to drop.  And boy did they drop fast.  City scored two in three minutes.  At 3-1 I texted Dennis that 3-5 was still in the cards and after City leveled I feared I was going to be right.  And there were plenty of hairy moments before the final whistle.  Nick Pope continues to make the case to be England's Number One Keeper; it wasn't just the saves, it was his command of the box and decision making.  City got three goals but Pope was MoM for me.  Another scary moment was Trippier's tackle on DeBruyne that initially earned him a red card.  Fortunately, a judicious use of VAR got that reduced to a yellow, which was the correct call.  There was no excessive force or dangerous play, just a cynical trip deserving of a yellow.  So they held on for the draw.  Would have loved to be with the crowd walking down the hill from St. James' Park after that one.

Stranger Things

There were other unexpected results besides Newcastle.  Strangest of all would clearly be Leeds 3-0 beatdown of Chelsea.  Check out the first goal in that match, Brendan Aaronson's first in the EPL. Part (largely?) a howler from Chelsea keeper Mendy and part sheer cheekiness from Aaronson, you can see the former Union star's goal here.  Tuchel's strange post-match comments, seen here, are moving him up the list of dislikable managers for me.  Also, don't be fooled by the red card in the scoreline; that happened late with score already 3-0.

Milner reams Van Dijk - who looks in disarray now?

Man United's 2-1 win over  Liverpool result was a surprise. Erik Ten Hag (ETH from here on out) sat Maguire and Ronaldo in the most notable benchings since Ted Lasso pulled Jamie Tartt at halftime against Crystal Palace.  And for the first time in awhile, they looked like a team.  Yes, Liverpool were missing some key parts (Nunez, Jota, Matip, Keita, etc.).  But it was United that had the Liverpool players yelling at each other, most notably Milner getting in Van Dijk's face.  And how about, with the score 2-1 late, ETH making defensive subs that did not include putting Maguire on the pitch.  What to make of that?  Does the story line shift from why is Man United in disarray to what's the matter with Liverpool, who have dropped seven points points from three matches?

Maybe not as weird but it was surprising to see Brighton dominate West Ham 2-0 despite being on the road.  Southampton with a late goal to beat Leicester 1-2 at King Power wasn't an obvious result either.  Everton needing a late goal at Goodison Park to draw 1-1 with Nottingham Forest doesn't sound right to me as well, though maybe with the "new" Toffees, that is to be expected. 

Tottenham didn't exactly steamroller the Wolves.  They eked out a 1-0 wind and I'll give Conte credit because Spurs were nowhere, nay, being outplayed in the first half.  He made enough adjustments that they were the better side in the second half and probably just about earned the victory. 

About the only thing that looked on target was Arsenal's 3-0 defeat over Bournemouth.  What a waste of NBC's prime time 12:30 spot.  Heck, they would have done better to show the crazy 3-2 Fulham - Brentford contest, which was actually a contest.  The Cottagers were up 2-0, the Bees came back to tie, then Mitrovic got the game winner in the 90th minute.

Saving maybe the worst for last.  Probably trying to forget Aston Villa's disappointing 3-1 loss at Selhurst Park.  I won't say the final flatters Crystal Palace; they bossed the midfield for most of the match and xG says 3-1 is about right.  But a non-call for a PK and Bailey's shot that hit the crossbar might have been unlucky.  This is still a work in progress. 

Who's in the Technical Area - Answers

Sorry, forgot to include this last week.

In Case You Caraboa It

This week was second round action in the EFL Cup.  Thirteen top tier sides entered at this point (last year's top seven get a bye to the third round).  Twelve will continue, with Fulham finding themselves bounced out of the competition by fourth tier Crawley Town.  Newcastle didn't exactly dominate in a 2-1 win over fourth tier Tranmere.  Other sides had even closer scrapes - Bournemouth and Leicester advanced only after getting to kicks from the spot.  

The third round fixtures are out and of the 16 matches, seven pit EPL sides against each other.  This means that no more than 11 [Ed note: He means 12] of the final 16 will be from the top tier.  But it turns out that's not all that weird; the number of EPL sides in the 4th round for the last three years was 12, 13, 11.  

Missed Extra Point

Ay Carranza - three more for Julian
Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

In yet another miscalculation by BFS, the Union did in fact nearly equal their 7-0 home thrashing of DC United with a 6-0 win on the road.  The first 15 minutes were a bit shaky; Blake and the post helped keep the game 0-0 until the Union found their feet.  They didn't get on the board until the 37th minute.  A VAR PK after the halftime whistle had blown made it 2-0.  Carranza then put up a natural hat trick, scoring the next three goals.  Burke, who has started to find the net, added the sixth.

Montreal and NYCFC kept pace but the Harrison Pink Cows only got a draw against Cincinnati.  The lead over them is now 10 points and it's another five to fifth place.  They trail LAFC by six points with seven to play so maybe the Supporters Shield is gone.  But they are looking good for at least a home playoff spot.

Midweek Action!

A full slate of weekend matches plus fixtures Tuesday-Thursday.  A lot of dark orange in the 538 predictions, suggesting too many mismatches.  And we'll be at Subaru Park Saturday night. 

Newcastle have two away matches and could be looking at no points.  The trip to Molineux to face Wolves (9 am Sunday on Peacock) could yield a point and even a win there is not out of the question.  But so is a loss.  Wednesday is more daunting as they take on Liverpool at Anfield.  It's possible Alexander Isak will be a Magpie by then, which is good because Callum Wilson is injured again.

Earlybirds on Saturday get Southampton - Man United.  This is an important test for the Red Devils; if the ship is righted, they should win here.  Five choices at 10 am.  Interesting that the TV people have passed on  Chelsea vs Leicester, Liverpool vs Bournemouth and Man City vs Crystal Palace for the USA game and have gone with Brighton - Leeds.  Probably seeing possible routs so going with something more competitive.  If that was the objective, I might have gone with Brentford - Everton.  

Arsenal seem to have the franchise on the 12:30 "feature" match on NBC.  This time their victim is Fulham.  Sure it's London derby but doesn't look all that competitive.

Two matches besides Newcastle on Sunday are Aston Villa - West Ham (9 am USA) and Nottingham Forest - Tottenham (11:30 USA).  Not an easy fixture for the Villans.  Before the season this is one we would have expected them to show their strength; now it's a mystery what we'll get.  Life doesn't get easier either has they have to travel to face Arsenal on Wednesday.  

TV schedule for the midweek fixtures wasn't out at time of publication.  Tuesday I'll probably go with Crystal Palace - Brentford or Leeds - Everton over the other choices of Southampton - Chelsea or Fulham - Brighton.  Wednesday I go with Newcastle but others might be more interested in West Ham - Spurs.  Your other choices are Bournemouth - Wolves, Arsenal - Aston Villa or Man City - Nottingham Forest.  Thursday you can sit back and take in Leicester - Man United.  So the Red Devils have two road matches that offer the chance to prove that they are not in as much trouble as they seem.

Saturday night we'll be at Subaru Park for a match with Colorado.  Union are solid favorites for this one.  Our closest pursuers are on the road - Montreal at Chicago and NYCFC at Orlando.  Several MLS matches on TV if you're interested.  There's a double header Friday night with Austin - LAFC at 8, then Portland - Seattle at 10, both on ESPN. The Orlando - NYCFC match is on Fox 1 Sunday at 7:30.  

Hope you find something you like.

 

Making Lemonade

We had low expectations for much viewing during the obligation-filled trip to NH.  Surprisingly, we got in three matches on Saturday squeezed in between activities or after everybody else was asleep.  The five hour layover in Danbury on Monday allowed me to fit in two more; details on that saga below but it's perfect example of what to do when life gives you lemons - find a bar and watch soccer.

My Kingdom For A Finisher

Trippier clears the ball off the line;
the difference between a draw and a loss
Getty Images

We needn't spend much time on the 0-0 draw between Brighton and Newcastle.  That score totally flatters the Magpies.  Several shots were cleared off the line, Nick Pope had some great saves and goal line technology revealed that one ball was a few inches from crossing the line.  Newcastle had one shot on target and xG was 1.65 - .45 in favor of the Seagulls.  Not disappointed in the result so much as the performance. The silver lining here is that this was a match Newcastle would have lost in recent years so we'll take the point and move on.

The search for a striker or attacking midfielder continues.  A half a dozen names keep floating by but there is no action.  BFS can confirm that Dennis F is still available even after Sportif Allentown raised the asking price.

Better Is Relative

Aston Villa were much improved from the opener, though that was a pretty low bar.  Even so, they were clearly the better side and the 2-1 win over Everton was deserved.  This is a side that looks to be still putting the pieces together.  At the same time though, some of the pieces are falling apart.  New acquisition Diego Carlos went down with a ruptured achilles that probably rules him out for the season.  That leaves a big hole that they'll want to fill before the transfer window closes (loan deal for Chelsea's Trevoh Chalobah?).  Coutinho also left with some type of injury but doesn't sound like it's serious.  Still think the long range prospects are good for Villa. 

This Isn't Professional Wrestling

Or is it?  The 2-2 draw between Chelsea - Tottenham provided plenty of talking points, not all of which relate to the quality of play.  Before turning to the more soap operay aspects, let's acknowledge that at least all four goals were of high quality.  Now, let's look at the talking points.

1) Romero vs Cucurella (Round 1) - In the first half, Romero executed a clean tackle but Cucurella fell awkwardly and his right foot landed solidly on Romero's knee, probably leaving a mark.  There would be a rematch.

2a) At 68 minutes Spurs leveled things at 1-1 at 68 minutes on a nifty shot from Hoyburg Hodgebejerg Hojbjerg; the goal came shortly after Bentancur had scythed Havertz down deep in Spurs territory.  Pretty clearly a foul.  But also by shortly we mean 40+ seconds.  There is no way VAR (Mike Dean) should intervene here and fortunately he did not.  

Offside would have been an incredibly harsh call

2b) The tougher issue on this goal was whether Richarlison was in Mendy's line of vision while in an offside position.  Looking at the picture on the right, no doubt he is in an offside position.  However, it also looks like Mendy had a tight but unobstructed view of the shot.  We think Dean got this one right too.

2c) Not sure what exactly happened but Tuchel and Conte clashed right after this goal.  I think it was because Tuchel was incensed by the nature of Betancur's challenge.  Or maybe because, as Warren Zevon would say, he's just an excitable boy.

3) Chelsea went back up 2-1 on a great strike by Reece James.  In response, Tuchel sprinted along the touch line - RIGHT IN FRONT OF THE SPURS BENCH.  Yeah, that's a bit provocative.  Post match, Conte concedes it would have been awesome if he had stuck a foot out to trip Tuchel. 

4) Romero vs Cucurella (The Rematch) - Deep in stoppage time on a Spurs corner, Romero yanked Cucurella's hair, pulling him to the ground.  Mendy ended up tipping the ball over the crossbar so the call on the field was another corner for Spurs.  VAR reviewed but determined that there was nothing to overrule.  At first blush that seems ridiculous because the hair pull was real and it was spectacular.  However, since there wasn't a goal scored on the play, the only option to overturn the call was if the hair pull was deemed serious foul play/violent conduct.  That Anthony Taylor missed a foul is not enough here.  And the rules are silent on hair pulling.  Is it the same as shirt pulling, which is a common foul?  Or is a "blow to the face?"  Absent clearer guidance, we think Taylor and Dean got this one right too.  A few days later Dean suggested he made an error; he said that at the time he didn't think it was violent conduct but now wishes he had asked Taylor to look at the incident on the pitch-side monitor.  Of course, it is entirely possible that Taylor would have reached the same conclusion.  Watch the IAFB for possible new wording on what constitutes violent conduct. That the Spurs scored on the subsequent corner only magnified the controversy.

Am not! Are too!! Conte and Tuchel discuss the match

5) Post match, Conte and Tuchel got into it again.  I believe this driven by Tuchel's feeling that Conte's handshake was perfunctory, not even looking him in the eyes.  The exchange was enough that Taylor showed both a red card.    The Football Association has charged both with improper behavior (sorry, behaviour), which would mean touchline bans.  As of publication, I didn't see a  final decision.

As far as we know, there was no chair throwing and we believe that this was a real contest.  Therefore, we conclude that despite the hair pulling and theatrics of the whole affair, it was not professional wrestling.

Conversation That Didn't Take Place But Could Have

Michael B: Five hour layover in Danbury?  I didn't think you flew to New Hampshire

Steve: We didn't.

Best Sports Bar in Connecticut

TK's - the BFS approved soccer bar in Danbury, CT

Driving home from NH on Monday, the car started to make an awful screeching sound.  Laura went on line to find the nearest auto repair shop.  We pulled into Cardinale's in Danbury, CT.  The father and son team determined that the problem was that the brake calipers on the right front wheel were not releasing properly.  The good news was that they could fix it.  The bad news was that it would take three hours.  The good news was they directed us to TK's, a nearby sports bar.

The better news was that this is no mere sports bar. We walk in and the Liverpool - Crystal Palace match was on the big screens.  Bob the bartender went through the choices of local beers with a good range of IPAs, lagers and ales.  He pointed out the menu, which includes 76 flavors of wings.  John, one of the dozen or so patrons, struck up a conversation with us right away.  Turns out this is the official Connecticut home of Bayern Munich fans.  These guys know their stuff. 

As for the match, Dennis ran into the jinx of the pundit, texting that it didn't look like Palace would get away with their typical way of stealing a game seconds before Zaha scored.  Nunez earned himself a red card at 57 minutes for a head butt.  The consensus at the bar was that you can't do that but everyone was annoyed at how Andersen made a meal of it.  Luis Diaz made a sensational shot that leveled things a few minutes later.  Someone at the end of the bar said 11 v 10 probably made this an even match.  And that's how it ended, 1-1.

We don't often break down in Danbury and have to spend three hours waiting on car repairs but when we do, we hang out at TK's.  We took home a bucket of wings and can report that the Jamaican Jerk and the Half and Half wings are excellent.  An order of San Francisco fries ensured that we wouldn't eat the wings in the car.  Check out their website here.  Only fair that I give them a plug because Bob handed out the link to BFS to some of the customers.  Also, a shout out to Cardinale's, who got us back on the road and home that evening (yes, that's Laura's 5-star Yelp review).  More of the shameless cross promotion you've come to expect from BFS.  

In Other Action

Man City and Arsenal managed solid wins over Bournemouth and Leicester respectively.  After just two weeks they are the only sides with perfect records.  At the other end of the table, there are just three teams with no points so far -  Everton, West Ham and Man United.  Just as you predicted right?  Well, maybe Everton.  From the highlights, Nottingham's 1-0 win over the Hammers might have been the best match of the weekend.  I only saw highlights of Brentford's 4-0 drubbing of Man United.  The xG at 538 reads 1.75 - 1.25 in favor of the Red Devils so maybe there was some bad luck there.  Certainly, the first goal was a howler from DeGea; we don't often make mistakes the YouTubeableMoment but this was so bad, we'll make an exception. Rounding out the action, Leeds and Southampton played to a 2-2 draw while the Wolves - Fulham scoreline was 0-0; the latter match featured a whopping four shots on goal.

Feast or Famine for the Union

Gazdag got another one against Chicago

The Union scored early and often in a 4-1 win over Chicago on Saturday but could not find the net in an 0-1 loss to Dallas on Wednesday.   In truth, the U were a little loose against Chicago but got by because of Blake's work in goal and the performances of Uhre, Carranza and especially Gazdag.   Daniel is tied for 7th with 12 goals and has six assists to go with them.  How about at least a little discussion of him for MVP?

Against Dallas, they moved the ball around well enough but somehow still managed to look punchless.  It shows in the xG at 538; shot-based was just .5 while non-shot based was 1.8.  In other words, they got the ball in good positions but it didn't translate into meaningful shots.  

Not overly worried but would be happy if they didn't have these occasional power failures.  Fortunately, while we were losing two of the last three, NYCFC were losing all of their last three so we've actually opened a decent advantage over them.  In fact, they haven't won since 7/23 and have seen Montreal slip past them into second.  The U lead Montreal by five points but we have played one more game.  

While You're Waiting for the Next Season of Ted Lasso (h/t Bob K)

In 2020, Ryan Reynolds and Ryan McElhenney bought Wrexham AFC for £2 million.  The Dragons compete in the National League, the 5th tier of English football.  An FX docuseries chronicling events since the actors purchased the club comes out on August 24.  Details can be had here.  

There's Always the Week After

There are some intriguing fixtures this week but one of them is not Newcastle hosting Man City Sunday at 11:30 (USA).  At 538 they have the Magpies with a 12% chance of winning, 18% chance of a draw; as Lloyd Christmas would say, so you're telling me there's a chance.

Monday afternoon at 3 pm features winless Liverpool at pointless Man United.  This looks more like a chance for the Reds to get squared away as opposed to Man United finding a way out of the wilderness they've wandered into.

Saturday's early risers can do Tottenham hosting Wolves at 7:30; at least it's on USA so those of us looking to grab another 30-45 minutes of sleep can catch up via DVR.  No reason to think Spurs aren't good for this one.

Four choices at 10 am.  The schedulers chose Leicester - Southampton for USA but I'd have it as my second choice.  We'll be going with Crystal Palace - Aston Villa; this is at Selhurst Park so while I think Villa are the better side, the Eagles may give them a good challenge here.  Fulham hosting Brentford could be a competitive match.  The fourth option is Everton - Nottingham Forest.  In prior years I would be so worried about Newcastle's relegation risk that, against my better judgment, I'd root for Everton; now I can snicker if Everton lose.  

The NBC 12:30 feature match is Arsenal at Bournemouth.  Underwhelming choice.

Two 9 am Sunday fixtures to warm you up for the Newcastle massacre.  Leeds will host Chelsea on USA while West Ham take on Brighton in London.  I'll go with the latter.  Despite their positions in the table, I think these are two evenly matched sides who will put on an interesting show.  Of course, I said that about Brighton - Newcastle last week.  Well, it was draw.

The Union travel to Washington to face DC United 7:30 on Saturday night.  We are not expecting a repeat of the 7-0 drubbing the Union hung on DC last time.  And you always worry about payback after a result like that.  However, DC have yet to score in four matches in August.  They have a -21 goal differential.  They have four wins and three draws against six losses at home.  Really, anything less than three points here would be disappointing.  

In other MLS action, Montreal host New England (Saturday 7:30) while NYCFC travel to Chicago for a 6 pm Sunday fixture.  

It's nice to be home but I wouldn't mind being at TK's for the Man United Liverpool match.

Newcastle Qualify For Europe*

 * If the season were to end today.

Okay, getting ahead of ourselves here but I can't remember Newcastle getting a result on opening day so we're excited.  Mixed results elsewhere, including the Union crashing hard in Cincinnati.

Newcastle See the Forest

If the strikers can't score, go with a defender:
Schar puts Newcastle up 1-0

So it took a while for the dominance to show on the scoreboard but this was all Magpies.  The 2-0 final is very flattering to Nottingham Forest.  But it's also a reminder that while Newcastle have a lot of the pieces in place, their finishing will need to be much more clinical.  They won't get this many scoring chances against the better clubs.

Still, it was cool watching Newcastle move the ball with such ease into dangerous positions; non-shot xG was 3.3.  A lot of chances but no goals.  In some ways highlighting our lack of a star striker, it was defender Fabian Schar who broke the ice with a rocket from about 20 yards out.   On quality and context, we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Things felt much calmer after that, even if it was another 20 minutes before Callum Wilson salted things away.  Lots of reason for optimism.

Title Race Over

We only sort of jest.  In recent years, the smallest of missteps has been the difference between first or second place and Liverpool made one on Saturday, managing just a draw against newly promoted Fulham.  Meanwhile, Man City showed off their new striker - Erling Haaland - who looks like he will have people forgetting who Jesus was.  Sterling too.

Technically, City are not in first at this time as Spurs dumped on Southampton for 4-1 win to lead the division on goal differential.  Arsenal and Chelsea also got wins over Crystal Palace and Everton respectively.  

Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss (apologies to The Who)

The news was not so good for Man United fans at Old Trafford, as Pascal Gross scored twice in Brighton's 2-1 win over the Red Devils.  Yes, it's only one game but changing the manager doesn't look to be what this team needs.  Ronaldo wants out.  He didn't start but Ten Hag had to put him in when they fell behind.  I'd be looking at some significant personnel changes to rework the chemistry.  

A Second Bite of the Cherries (h/t Michael B)

Opening day was also not so kind to Aston Villa.  They surrendered a quick goal to Bournemouth but were still in the game until a late second tally sealed the result.  I did not see the match but Dennis reports that the result is not as distressing as the lackluster performance from Villa.  The internet was full of disparaging remarks about Gerrard's line up choices and system of play.  Unlike Man United, I'd be looking for a few more matches before making any decisions about Villa's future.

Conversation That Did Not Occur But Could Have

Dennis: Did you say Arsenal's new motto is "In God We Trust?"

Steve: No, I said they will be depending on Jesus this season

Heard on Telecasts

Ten Hag says his management style does not include
hair dryer treatments.  We don't doubt it.
Photo: Jan Kruger/GettyImages

After Darwin Nunez scored the second goal to wrap up Arsenal's win over Crystal Palace: "Darwin ensures the evolution of the front line is in good shape."

Erik ten Hag when asked about his management style, said he won't be using the hair dryer treatment.

A commentator wondered who would be missed more - Sterling from City or Mane from Liverpool.  That got Dennis going - as in the correct answer - Mane - is obvious and he is currently doing the statistical research to back that up.

How Many Brothers in the Family

Spurs got a goal from Ogee, who was their second leading scorer last season.  Turns out, he has many brothers.  Ogee also scored for Arsenal, Leeds, and Man United.

Who's in the Technical Area?

Some new teams and some new managers.  Can you match the team with their manager?

Answers next week.

Joker in Queen City

You can't spell Medunjanin without "adieu"
Nice job Haris

Even VAR could not save the Union this time in a 3-1 defeat in Cincinnati.  A goal was correctly called back late in the first half but that only delayed what you could see was coming.  The hosts got two quickly in the second half and added a third before the U got on the board.  The score looked right based on what I saw and the stats pretty match back it up too.  Just two shots on goal for the U; passing percentage was just 78%.   Cincinnati's press seem to bottle up the free flowing passing we'd gotten used to and the long game just didn't work.  

The glass is 7/8 full says they were due for a stinker and there's no reason for long term concern.  I would like to see them make sure the long passing game can work if teams press them like Cincinnati did on Saturday.  Again, we got help in other places, with Columbus knocking off NYCFC 3-2 so the three point lead continues.

The match also marked the end of the MLS career of Haris Medunjanin, who will head for a second division Dutch club to be closer to his family.  He made 172 appearances in the MLS, including 100 starts for the Union; in 2019 he was the only non-keeper to play every minute.  A pro's pro.  

Shameless Cross Promotion

FanHub - a relatively new platform to cover track and field by AthleteBiz - picked up the post about the similarities between soccer and track and field.  You can see the post here.  While you're there, we encourage you to explore the site.  Lots of great content from talented writers and producers.  An excellent way to stay current on a sport that just doesn't get the media coverage it deserves.

Away for the Weekend

Best action looks like Chelsea - Tottenham Sunday at 11:30 on USA; Spurs will be tested here but could come away with something.  Man City and Liverpool have what look like home walkovers against Bournemouth (Saturday 10 am on USA) and Crystal Palace (Monday at 3 on USA) respectively.  

Newcastle are more underdogs than I would like to see in their away match at Brighton (Saturday at 10 on Peacock).  At 538, they favor Brighton 49/25/26; I guess the "bright" side is that a draw would not be a bad result.  

Aston Villa will look to bounce back at home, taking on Everton at 7:30 on Saturday on USA.  This really should be three for Villa.  More importantly, we'll be looking for improved performance regardless of the result.

The Saturday 12:30 feature match on NBC returns and it is a curious one - Brentford hosting Man United.  Shockingly, the numbers at 538 barely favor Man United at 39/36/25; hard to imagine a draw with Brentford is acceptable even for an away match.

For the neutral sorting out the five 10 am Saturday matches, I'm going out on a limb to recommend Brighton - Newcastle.  I think that could be both highly competitive and entertaining.  Your other choices are Arsenal - Leicester (okay, that could be good too on Peacock), Man City - Bournemouth (USA) , Southampton - Leeds (Peacock) and Wolves - Fulham (also Peacock).  

Who'd I forget?  Right - Nottingham Forest host West Ham at 9 am on Sunday on USA.

On this side of the pond, the Union host Chicago at 7:30 on Saturday.  A perfect bounce-back opportunity.  NYC is on the road at Miami so maybe we shouldn't expect much help.  

I'll be in New Hampshire Friday - Monday and don't expect to see much (any?) of the weekend's action.  BFS co-founder Dennis will be there too so next week's post could be on the light side.  Maybe with judicious use of DVR and Peacock replays we'll be able to piece something together.

A New Hope?

The EPL season opens Friday with all the hopes and fears that come with that.  Another solid performance from the Union

Missed the Extra Point This Time

For the third straight weekend, I watched the Union replay on ESPN+ late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning.  This time I watched with my sister on her laptop at my parents' place in New Hampshire.  I pointed out to her that it is not always this easy for the Union.  

Textbook form from McGlynn

There were shades of the DC United match as they built a 3-0 lead in the first half and added three more in the second half for a 6-0 pasting of the Houston Dynamo.  Gazdag was in the middle of it of course,  McGlynn got his first ever for the U (an incredibly well-taken free kick for this week's YouTubeableMoment) and Uhre got two more.  Yes, Houston are not a good side.  But now we are seeing the Union act like a powerhouse, brushing off the weaker teams as opposed to playing down to their level.  

We did get help from Montreal, who managed a 0-0 draw with NYCFC.  So the Union lead is now three points, though NY still has a game in hand.

Predictions

For once Newcastle go into a season not dreading the threat of relegation because 1) they were pretty good for the last few months of last season 2) they improved the squad somewhat - though not as dramatically as we might have hoped and 3) if there's a whiff of relegation come January, the new owners will [over]spend whatever is necessary to avoid that fate.

Question:  Newcastle's finishes the last five years are 11th, 12th, 13th, 13th, 10th.  So how come I feel like Newcastle spent those five years a heartbeat away from relegation?  Dennis would probably say it's because I'm a pessimist.  Maybe.  But, look at the table below; except for 2019-20, they spent at least the first half of each season way too close to the drop zone.  

Usually they were on pace for a mid-30 point total, which typically means you're no more than a short slump away from 18th place or worse.  Their second halves would generate a low to mid-50s point total, which leaves the drop zone comfortably back in the rear view mirror.  If they had flipped these first and second halves, it probably would not have been so stressful.  I have no memory of the 2019-20 first half.  Probably spent it saying this won't last.  And, I was right.

I sampled only two sets of predictions this year - 538 and The Guardian.  I would highly recommend The Guardian series because of fun stuff like "If Netflix did a documentary on this team..."  Also, they assess which players may feature at the World Cup.  The Newcastle preview is provided here.  You can use that link to track down all the others.

So Man City and Liverpool are projected 1-2 by both sources.  And probably any other source you can find.  I'm shocked, shocked I tell you.  The Guardian have Newcastle all the way up at 7th while 538 seems more down-to-earth at 13th.  I should mention that I compared last year's projections to actual and by far the most accurate were 538's - 20-30% better than any other.  Absent the signing of a marquee type attacking midfielder, I think The Guardian overshot the Magpies' potential.  You can see 538's projected order of finish here.  Selected projections from The Guardian include Aston Villa at 10th (compared to 7th at 538), Spurs at 3rd (4th in 538) and Man United 6th (same as 538).

Too Much Peacock

So the first weekend is loaded up with eight games on Peacock and just two on USA.  Makes multi-game viewing much harder.  

The season opens Friday with a London derby featuring Crystal Palace v Arsenal at our favorite venue, Selhurst Park.  That's at 3 pm on USA.  We never pass up Friday afternoon football.

Hopefully this weekend will not see a repeat of the pitch
invasion that occurred at St. James' Park when Newcastle
faced Nottingham Forest in the 6th round of the FA Cup

Saturday, the 7:30 early bird special is Fulham - Liverpool.  Welcome back to the big show guys! Four to choose from at 10 am, all on Peacock.  We, of course, will be taking in Newcastle hosting newly promoted Nottingham Forest; 538 likes the Magpies chances but not as much as you would think - 54/20/26 (chance of Newcastle win/Fulham win/draw - we will use that convention a lot).  Dennis has Aston Villa at Bournemouth covered.  Spurs should be solid taking on Southampton at home.  The neutral looking for a competitive match might choose the Leeds - Wolves contest. No feature match on NBC but USA will carry the Everton - Chelsea match at 12:30.

Three more on Sunday, again all Peacock.  At 9, we'll likely go with Man United hosting Brighton over Leicester - Brentford.  West Ham and Man City have the 11:30 slot all to themselves.

MLS action continues with the U heading to Cincinnati; that's Saturday at 7:30 on PHL-17 or ESPN+. This should be another win but on the road they'll need to be careful.  NYC is on the road to Columbus so maybe we can get some help again.

Yikes, let the games begin.