One Point Closer to Safety

Newcastle grabbed an unlikely point at Anfield while the Union lost the one they were supposed to win but won the one they were supposed to lose.  Plus a little more Super League post-mortem.

An Unlikely Draw

Newcastle managed two stoppage time equalizers in a 1-1 draw with Liverpool.  How is that possible you ask?  Well, the first one was disallowed correctly based on the letter of the law (more on that below).  But we get ahead of ourselves.

Dubravka with one of his 8 saves - POM for me

Liverpool took an early lead on some brilliant work in the box by Mo Salah.  Much of the rest of the match was spent watching the Reds fail to convert golden opportunities either because of great work by Magpies keeper Martin Dubravka, or simply poor choices by Liverpool attackers.  Newcastle weren't totally toothless but my pre-game hope for no worse than an 0-1 loss looked like the best we were going to get.  Enter stoppage time with the score still 1-0.  Callum Wilson appeared to level things in the 93rd minute with this goal.  As you can clearly see, the ball clearly comes off his arm and under existing laws, this is an easy call for the referee.  Massive let down.  I hadn't recovered from that disappointment when Joe Willock put in the real equalizer in the dying seconds of the match.  Of course this is an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  This is Willock's third straight game winning or tying goal so we may have to rename the feature after him.  Of course, they wouldn't have been in that position without Dubravka's work in goal.  Also, another 7.1 performance from Jacob Murphy.  

Only a point but it means that most likely a draw with Sheffield United at home on the penultimate weekend will be enough to ensure safety.  Relegation percentage is down to 2%.  Basically, it would take a string of improbable - though not impossible - results to drag the Magpies down now.

Common Denominator

What do the teams currently sitting 5th to 7th in the table (i.e. on the outside looking in at Champions League participation) have in common?  They all dropped points to Newcastle in the last month - Liverpool and Tottenham two each and West Ham three.  Just sayin'.

Turns Out There Are Dumb Questions

Or people have short memories.  The response after Callum Wilson's goal being ruled out is humorous.  How does this rule make sense?  Blah, blah, blah.  Go back to 2019 when the rule was changed.  This was exactly what people wanted:

• Football does not accept a goal being scored by a hand/arm (even if accidental)
• Football expects a player to be penalized for handball if they gain possession/control of the ball from their hand/arm and gain a major advantage e.g. score or create a goal-scoring opportunity

The rule was changed precisely because people were complaining about goals exactly like Wilson's counting.  Personally, I like the old rule better but please just choose one and then shut up.

Lose Some Win Some

The Union were solid favorites in their home opener versus Miami.  They played like it and when Monteiro's goal put them up 1-0 in the second half, you felt like it was going to be a W.  But this was a classic case of not taking advantage of other scoring opportunities and two late games from Miami turned this into a 1-2 defeat.  Hard to say if it was just a lack of scoring punch or maybe some complacency.  Definitely unsatisfying and a poor result heading into what looked like a tough Concacaf Champions League quarterfinal fixture in Atlanta on Tuesday night.

On Tuesday, Atlanta did indeed push the Union around for most of the first half and only heroic work by Andre Blake kept the score at 0-0 well into the second half.  That was breathing space that allowed the Union to figure some things out.  In the 57th minute, Wagner sent a corner into the box that eluded Glesnes' attempted diving header (fortunately!?) and landed at shuhBILLkoh's feet and he calmly put it away; replay can be seen here.  Cool, an away goal.  But wait there's more.  Two well-crafted counter attacks yielded two more goals and an unlikely 3-0 result for the first leg.  Of course, there is still the matter of the second leg but Atlanta will have to win by four goals at Subaru Park on Tuesday night.  

Random Observations

I remember watching a lot of games but poor memory and limited time mean I'll just offer some random thoughts about the last week.

- Wolves win the "Ready for the Beach" award with their awesome 0-4 loss to Burnley

- Leicester added six points with wins over West Brom and Crystal Palace; and yes EatANatcho had goals in both

- Chelsea put a serious dent in West Ham's Champions League hopes with their 1-0 win; that means Jesse Lingard did not score this week

- We suggested Man United might have trouble with Leeds and sure enough, that one ended 0-0

- Sam Allardyce's reputation as relegation rescuer is in serious jeopardy after West Brom surrendered a tying goal to Aston Villa in stoppage time

- Man City's 1-0 win over Spurs in the Caraboa League Cup Final probably did not attract new viewers to the sport

- First half of Chelsea - Real Madrid Champions League semi-final was excellent but the second half was like both managers had been replaced by Jose Mourinho; the 1-1 draw (nice goal from Pulisic) is probably a slight advantage for Chelsea as the second leg is in London

-Sort of rooting for PSG so that 1-2 home score against Man City was disappointing

- Europa matches ended too late for this edition of BFS

Super League Redux

Sounds about right- CL sponsor responds

Certainly been enough to take in about this clusterf***.  But I do want to focus on the financial side. The thinking was that this league would generate significantly greater revenue through TV rights, etc. for the participating clubs. As detailed here, JP Morgan was going to provide the advance funding secured against these expected TV revenues.  But would that have actually happened?  The article suggests that the TV networks were not convinced they'd be shelling out massive new amounts.  Dennis and I can tell you about all the times we sat in hospital project meetings with managers and consultants optimistically projecting admissions and revenues that had virtually no chance of materializing given the realities of their service areas.   The Super League might have been able to generate some additional revenues from the early stages of league play but the later stages would be no different than the current set up.  The Real Madrid - Chelsea semi-final would be basically the same whether you call it Champions League or Super League.

My second point on this subject is that it's not dead yet.  The issue of club finances is real and does need to be addressed.  The question is how.

 

Staffing Change

BFS is pleased to announce that Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S has been promoted to Super League Correspondent.  This comes with a 10% salary increase and an upgraded parking spot.

Full Slate

No extracurricular competitions this week so everybody plays.  Newcastle face a struggling Arsenal at home.  Not as bad as going to the Emirates but never a good match up for us, especially since Joe Willock cannot suit up for this one as he can't play against his parent club.  That's 9 am Sunday on NBCSN.  Fortunately, Fulham take on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge (12:30 Saturday feature match on NBC) so they aren't likely to get any points either.  The other marginally relevant relegation players may fare a little better.  Brighton are home to Leeds (10 am Saturday on NBCSN), though we have pointed out what a tough draw Leeds have been lately - no flip flops on these guys yet.  Burnley host West Ham on Monday at 3:15 on Peacock.  West Brom may have the easiest fixture - home versus Wolves; maybe Santos will have read the riot act to his charges and they will show up for this one.

Biggest match up in the good neighborhoods is Man United Liverpool on Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN.  Tough to say that's a must win for Liverpool but it sure looks like it since Chelsea (vs Fulham) and Leicester (vs Southampton) look likely to get three points this weekend.  Spurs will seek to keep things alive hosting Sheffield United on Sunday at 2:15 on Peacock.

After no live soccer since November 2019, I get two matches in four days.  Saturday I'll be at Subaru Park to see the Union take on NYCFC.  Not an historically productive fixture for us so maybe a draw would be fine, especially given the congested schedule.  Will be right back there on Tuesday night to hopefully watch them close out Concacaf Champions League quarter final against Atlanta.

Also Champions League and Europa League second legs of the semi-final ties Tuesday-Thursday.

I forget the last footballless day but it's been awhile.  Might have been back to April 2.  And schedule is full through May 12th.  No one said this would be easy.  

Black and White, No Gray

There simply is no middle ground with Newcastle.  Saturday morning the Magpies took an early lead against West Ham on an own goal - though I would argue they had the run of play to that point and Saint-Maximin essentially put the West Ham defender in a no-win situation.  Even better, on that same play, Craig Dawson got himself sent off so Newcastle would play the next 54+ minutes a man up.  But wait, we're not done.  The generally reliable West Ham keeper Fabianski spilled the ball inside the six and Joe L. Linton put it away for a two goal lead at 41 minutes.  Start the second half up a man and two goals.  What could go wrong?

Another late game changer from Willock

If you only watched the second half, you would have thought Newcastle were the side playing a man down.  Unbelievable to watch.  The real shocker is that West Ham didn't score until the 73rd minute.  At this point a draw, or more likely a loss, really seemed possible.  When Ciaran Clark was whistled for handling in the box and Jesse Lingard (him again?) converted the PK in the 80th minute, I despaired of even the single point.  

The equalizer did seem to wake up the Magpies.  Glory be, two minutes later Joe Willock headed Matt Ritchie's cross into the back of the net for a most improbable game winner; an easy pick for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Surely, they could hang on from here.  Hey, this is Newcastle, remember?  And don't call me Shirley.  But they did and a bonus three points were in the bag.

Certainly having Saint-Maximin back has made a big difference.  But I suggest a little love for Matt Ritchie and Jacob Murphy.  Their increased presence in the last three matches can't be overlooked.  Three matches from which Newcastle have grabbed a highly unlikely seven points; going into this set I would have thought anything more than one would be a big help.

The other big match up for us relegation junkies was Arsenal-Fulham.  You know, 9th place Arsenal?  The club that thinks it's so good that it deserves a place in the Super League (more on that below).  To be fair, they probably did outplay Fulham but all they had to show for it going into stoppage time was an 0-1 deficit.  But in the 97th  minute, Nketiah scored on a loose ball off a shot from Ceballos that  Fulham keeper Areola had done well to parry.  And more points dropped late for Fulham.  

The weekend ended with Newcastle eight points clear of relegation and actually in 15th place, slipping past both Burnley and Brighton.  Relegation percentage at 538 is down to 4%, with Fulham up to 89%.  Recall that three short weeks ago, they were both at 48%.  Looking at the remaining fixtures, it's possible Newcastle have enough but would do better to pick up two more points.  A win versus Sheffield would seal it.  So would a draw on the final day against Fulham.  But given how hot and cold this team can run, that would be unbearable if it came down to final weekend vs Fulham.

Quad Is Dead Despite Jesus's Efforts

Hopes for Man City's unprecedented quad ended rather unceremoniously on Saturday as Chelsea dumped them out of the FA Cup with a 1-0 win.  Not the most inspiring of matches and City looked pretty flat.  Not that the Blues were overwhelming but it did feel like the correct result.  In the equally uninspiring second semi, Leicester bested Southampton 1-0.  This one featured a total of one shot on goal and not much else.  The goal was scored by...EatANacho...who has simply been on fire since BFS provided the pronunciation guidance back in March.  Little known fact: both goals in these semis were scored in the 55th minute.

Do You Know the Way to Sack Jose? (apologies to Dionne Warwick)

Perhaps a mild surprise but after a 2-2 draw with Everton on Friday, Tottenham gave Mourinho the boot on Monday morning.  I say surprise because I figured he'd get the chance to win some hardware this weekend with the League Cup Final against Man City.  But as I think more about it, maybe the fear was that they would win the League Cup and it would make sacking Mourinho all that much more difficult.

With Ryan Mason appointed caretaker manager, Spurs first half against Southampton didn't look too good as they fell behind on a Danny Ings goal.  Their work rate was much improved in the second half, and eventually it produced a goal from Gareth Bale.  A possible game winner was called back (correctly for offside).  Then Reguilon was fouled right on the 18-yard line and Son converted the PK in stoppage time for the comeback 2-1 win.  Spurs still face long odds to make Champions League but at least the Mourinho nightmare is over.

Distracted?

Liverpool stumbled to a 1-1 draw against Leeds on Monday, dropping two points at a critical time in their chase for a Champions League berth.  Perhaps the players were distracted by the announcement of Liverpool's participation in the proposed Super League.  On Tuesday, Chelsea stumbled to a 0-0 draw against Brighton, dropping two points at a critical time in their chase for a Champions League berth.  Perhaps the players were distracted by the announcement of Chelsea's participation in the proposed Super League.

Man United were perhaps lucky to play Burnley before news was widespread about the Super League and got a 3-1 win to virtually cement their Champions League spot.  Leicester versus West Brom ended too late for this edition of BFS.

Leicester and Liverpool looked best positioned to get the two spots after the Manchester clubs but Chelsea are certainly still a threat.  West Ham's loss to Newcastle put a real dent in their chances.  

If You Can't Earn It, Buy It

Of course, conversation this week was more about events off the field than results on the pitch.  Sunday saw the announcement of a new Super League to be formed by six EPL, three La Liga and three Serie A clubs.  Details can be had here.  Trying to explain in unbiased terms is difficult but it was basically a proposal to create an alternative to the Champions League in which the 12 founding clubs plus others to be added would play in a mid-week competition.  Their justification was obtained by The Guardian and is excerpted here.

The outrage was so swift that the plan fell apart by Tuesday.  But, but, I didn't even get a chance to vent here before it collapsed.  Screw it.  I'm still going to get my rant in.

This was a naked power grab by a group of clubs with reputedly greater drawing power that were bothered by the fact that they didn't make enough from participation in the Champions League; they blamed the structure which includes too many unattractive fixtures.  Hmm, maybe you would make more money if you lasted longer in the existing Champions League or, here's an idea - QUALIFY FOR CHAMPIONS LEAGUE IN THE FIRST PLACE!  In the last five years, at least four of the 12 have failed to make it to the CL Round of 16.  Inter haven't reached the Champions League Round of 16 since 2011-12.  AC Milan are not much better at 2013-2014.  Hold the phone - AC Milan haven't even qualified for Champions League since then.  Arsenal haven't been there since 2016-17.   Sure looks like they are buying rather than winning their way into a super league.  Anti-competitive through and through.  These guys aren't even the Best of the Best of the Best.

Commitment to the domestic leagues?  With guaranteed participation in the Super League, any place in the table will do so how does that do anything but diminish the interest in domestic league play?  The number of meaningless matches, when a team no longer has any reason to compete, will increase.  Sure, 18-20 are still to be avoided, once 1st, 18th, 19th and 20th are out of reach, what is there to play for?

Financial troubles?  Don't doubt it.  Did pandemic make it worse? Don't doubt it.  But these 12 self-anointed clubs are saying we are bigger than European football and will take it upon ourselves to solve the economic issues.  Not saying I'd be thrilled with this, but if the current structure was modified to have a more exclusive Champions League format and an expanded Europa League format, might that help the finances.  Even that falls a bit thin when you think about how many of the Champions League matches are "unattractive."  To win the CL, you play six group stage, six knockout games and the final for a total of 13.  In theory, at most four of those matches should be against less than top 16 clubs in the world, unless of course there are upsets.

Not to pick on Michael B, but I was most disappointed to see Spurs and Atletico Madrid involved here.  Those are two clubs that fought and earned their way into Champions League success.  Now they want to make it much harder for clubs that used to be just like them.  

Gratifying to see how swift and nearly unanimous the the reaction was from most of the governing agencies, players, fans, and pundits.  But while this proposal is dead, the issue is very much alive and expect more ideas of this ilk to surface.

A Good 0-0 Draw

I know many say that's an oxymoron.  But really, the Union draw at Columbus Sunday evening was a solid achievement for the club and a decent watch as well.  First, the context.  We never get points at Mapfre Stadium - it's like Newcastle at Arsenal.  Second, Columbus are last year's MLS Cup winners and are still pretty good.  Third, the Union are a little light on depth right now, plus the average age of the squad looks to be about 17.8.

Leon Flach (l) has impressed with his work rate

The first 15 minutes did not go well as the Crew's intensity was smothering anything the Union tried to do.  A good sign was how the squad responded; Union sides of old might have fallen behind 0-1 or 0-2.  From there on out, I'd argue Philadelphia gave as good as it got.  The xG at 538 shows a very slight advantage for the Union, suggesting that a draw was probably the fair result. Like last year, there was the moment when Blake's heroics kept the Union in the match, which you can see here.  A good road point IMHO.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say the Columbus defender was terrible?

Steve: No, I said he was Afful.

At Least Grab the Right Body Part

Oscars are Sunday night

Not to pick on Jeff H and Man United, but there was a moment in the Burnley match in which  Donny van de Beek 1) totally overreacted to physical contact from James Tarkowski and 2) writhed on the ground grabbing his shin when the contact was clearly on the toe.  From the picture (left), you'd think he'd suffered a compound fracture.  But no, he was up and running in seconds.  Just stop it.

Maybe I Do Caraboa It Cup

The weekend's fixtures are slightly truncated due the League Cup Final on Sunday at 11:30.  We kid about the League Cup's status here but hardware is hardware.  For Spurs it's also a chance for automatic entry in the Europa League (albeit the second tier).  With City's quad out the window and with their first leg of Champions League semi-final against PSG on Wednesday, we wonder if Pep will look to rotate his squad here.  He's all about winning the CL so maybe.  Internet says ESPN has the coverage but I'm not seeing on my TV guide.  

In league play, Newcastle travel to Anfield on Saturday for a 7:30 match with Liverpool (Peacock).  I suspect we will walk alone on this one.  A point would be beyond expectations.  Fulham are idle so they won't gain us and we'll have the same number of games played.  Best thing here would be minimal damage to the goal differential, since we're finally equal with Fulham.

Our other relegation rivals do have a chance to make up some ground.  Burnley face Wolves on the road (Sunday 7 am on NBCSN); the Clarets have good chance for at least a point here.  Brighton travel to take on Sheffield United (Saturday 3 pm on Peacock), the Seagulls are solid favorites in this one.  West Brom are really not in it but don't know that yet; Aston Villa could make that much clearer with a win over the Baggies Sunday afternoon (2 pm on Peacock).

Biggest action on the Champions League qualification front is West Ham - Chelsea Saturday at 12:30 on NBC.  A loss to either would be costly; a draw might keep both alive but barely.  Leicester have an eminently winnable home match with Crystal Palace, who look ready for the beach.  Man United, who basically have a spot sewed up, are favored against Leeds, even on the road; um, but be careful as Leeds are unbeaten in their last five, including draws with Liverpool and Chelsea and a win over Man City.  Arsenal - Everton round out the schedule, Friday at 3 pm on NBCSN.

First legs of Champions League semi-finals this week and they look awesome.  Chelsea is at Real Madrid on Tuesday and Man City is at PSG on Wednesday.   Europa League semi-finals first legs are on Thursday, with Man United hosting Roma and Arsenal traveling to face Villareal.  Looks like CBSSports has the CL matches live while the Europa League matches are on slight delay ( 7 pm and 9pm same day).  The Europa stuff is probably live on Paramount.

The Union have two matches this week as well.  Saturday is the league home opener against Miami.  You can catch that on PHL-17 at 8 pm.  They also have the first leg of their Concacaf Champions League quarterfinal tie with Atlanta on Wednesday Tuesday night at 8 pm.  That'll be on FS1.

Again, another week with relevant matches every day.  Hard to get work done isn't it?

Math Is Becoming Our Friend

An even better slate of results than last week for Newcastle and the more we plow through the numbers, the better things look.

Podence (10) needs a shorter sleeve

We start with Friday afternoon's Fulham-Wolves contest in which almost nothing happened.  Not that we would have complained about a 0-0 draw in this one.  One thing that did happen was possibly the closest offside call of the year.  Willian Jose's header had put Wolves up 1-0 in first half stoppage time except it was overruled by VAR.  Check out the photo (right) to see how close it was. Once again, offside is binary - it's not a judgment - he's either on or off.  In the picture, he is off.  Except is that the exact moment the ball was played?  So they came out to do more nothing for another 45 minutes.  Finally, the nothingness was shattered by this goal from Adama Traore, his first EPL tally since December 2019.  Not sure how he beat the keeper near side there but it worked for us. A draw would have been fine but a Fulham loss was even more helpful.

Jacob Murphy makes it 1-1

Fast forward to 7 am Sunday morning for Newcastle's difficult fixture with Burnley at Turf Moor.  Not an awful start but at 18 minutes the Magpies were behind.  They had some good chances but went into the locker room still down 0-1.  At 57 minutes Bruce pulled the trigger, taking out Joelinton and Gayle and putting in Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin.  I guess you could say it made a difference.  At 59 minutes ASM fed Jacob Murphy at the top of the box and he buried the shot.  Five minutes later, ASM takes a pass from Shelvey at midfield, winds his way down the pitch, makes a couple of moves in the box, then fires one past Pope.  Easy peasy 2-1 win.  We'll make that goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Wait, sorry, that was the ASM goal versus Burnley in the reverse fixture earlier this year.  Here's the ASM goal from this match.  Kinda similar, don't you think?

The math is rather daunting for Fulham at this point.  The percentage chances of relegation at 538 are 15% for Newcastle and 81% for Fulham.  Their remaining matches are Man United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Southampton away with Burnley and Newcastle home.  Seven points?  Maybe nine?  If the latter, Newcastle need four more. But the schedule is not exceptionally kind for the Magpies either. Liverpool, Leicester and Fulham away, with West Ham, Arsenal, Man City and Sheffield United home.  A win versus Sheffield and draw with Fulham will clearly be enough.  If Fulham come to the final week with less than six more points, a win over Sheffield will be enough.  

The Most Dangerous Lead

Apparently it is West Ham up by three.  For the third straight match the Hammers took a 3-0 lead - this time against Leicester - and then made life exciting.  They did hang on for a 3-2 win to reclaim the fourth spot they held going into the weekend.  Best Loanee Evah Jesse Lingard added two more goals; he has produced 11 (8 scored, 3 assisted) in his nine outings for West Ham.  Speaking of two goals, EatANacho got both of Leicester's goals; he has seven goals in his last four matches, and nine in his last six.  

Unfortunately, I skipped the Man City Leeds contest as the early Saturday match on Peacock.  My loss.  And Man City's.  Leeds were up 1-0 but saw Liam Cooper sent off in first half stoppage time.  Even with the advantage, City didn't equalize until the 76th minute.  Shockingly, it was Leeds that scored in stoppage time, with Stuart Dallas getting his second.  City's statistical advantage is stunning but worth zero points.  They led in possession (71-29), shots (29!!!-2), shots on target (7-2) and expected goals (3.0-.2).  This merely delays the coronation.

Grealishless Aston Villa made Liverpool work hard for a 2-1 win; Trent-Alexander's winner came in stoppage time.  That one also featured an incredibly close offside call explained here.  Man United took all three from Spurs in a match with a good bit of snarl to it.  Son had given Spurs a 1-0 lead but a rare tally from Fred, then a diving header from Cavani put the Reds back in front.  Tottenham did have some decent chances in the closing minutes but couldn't convert.  Greenwood's stoppage time goal made it a 3-1 final, which might flatter Man United a bit.  Better effort from Spurs than the Newcastle outing but their Champions League chances are dropping like a stone.  Chelsea kept themselves in the picture with a comfortable 4-1 pasting of Crystal Palace.

Who's Wearing Flip Flops?

Certainly Crystal Palace looked ready for the beach in their lackluster showing against Chelsea.  Same for Southampton, who were steamrollered 3-0 by West Brom.  That match provided us with a second time to use the word occlusion in connection with VAR.  As detailed here, the cameras were not able to get a definitive placement of the lines for a VAR review of an offside goal.  Since there was no conclusive evidence, the offside call was not reversed and the goal was disallowed.  Maybe not as consequential as the Great Occlusion that helped Aston Villa avoid relegation last year but again we see the limits of VAR.

For the Baggies this looks like too little too late.  The win dropped their relegation chances from 99 to 97%. Where are more points going to come from?  Remaining matches include Leicester, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Leeds away with Wolves, Liverpool and West Ham at home. Maybe few points left but also could be none.  Do you see at least eight points there?  Me neither.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve [as ASM and Wilson go in for Gayle and Joelinton]: Don't consider myself a tactical genius but if part of the problem has been getting service to the forwards, how does replacing both forwards help?

Dennis [after ASM sets up Murphy within 2 minutes of entering match]: "Not a tactical genius" is correct

Dennis [after ASM scores 5 minutes after that]: Boy do you look dumb

In my defense, ASM did not play as a forward but more like a number 10.  Further, note that on his goal, he did all the work himself, taking the ball at midfield and creating the goal from there.  Probably reveals my bias about Steve Bruce that I assumed he was making a straight swap when he fact he was also changing the formation or at least the player roles.  On the other hand, how much credit does a coach deserve for seeing his team's fortunes change after he puts in his two best players?

Union Coast

Monteiro had two goals and two assists

Though they had the advantage, bringing a 1-0 lead to Subaru Park, the Union's Round of 16 Concacaf
Champions League tie with Saprissa was far from finished.  They had several good chances while looking solid in defense in a scoreless first half.  Then the floodgates opened.  Fontana was fouled at the top of the box and Monteiro converted the PK in the 47th minute.  You had the sense that this would be enough but the Union kept going.  Four minutes later Monteiro set up shuhBILLkoh for a solid header and three minutes after that set up Fontana for a nicely placed shot.  The Cape Verdean completed the night with his second in stoppage time.  The 4-0 final (5-0 on aggregate) does not flatter the Union - they dominated the second half.  Saprissa was definitely compromised with injuries and covid.  Still, the solid showing in their first Champions League action is a big positive.  

Two Out of Three Ain't Bad (apologies to Meat Loaf)

The away sides definitely had the better of things in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinal match-ups.  In two cases, it was enough but in two others, it was not.  On Tuesday Porto managed an away goal against Chelsea, as did Bayern versus PSG.  But in both, this was not enough to win on aggregate, with Chelsea earning a 2-1 win and PSG advancing with a 3-3 draw based on more away goals.  On Wednesday, Real Madrid got pushed around a bit by Liverpool but held the Reds to a 0-0 draw so they take that one 3-1 on aggregate.  Man City had to work harder against Dortmund.  The Germans were actually in a position to advance based on an early goal.  Then two away goals from City put things to rest based on a 4-2 aggregate.

So two of the three EPL sides advance to the semi-finals.  Chelsea will face Real Madrid and Man City will take on PSG.  Matches are 4/27-28 and 5/4-5.   

Tyneside Tilt

BFS Referee Consultant Graham R picked up on point made in the Newcastle-Tottenham match - the pitch at St. James' Park slopes down North to South (i.e. towards the Gallowgate End).  As detailed here (see number 15.), the original slope was 18 feet, which sounds like some of the venues we encountered in Inter-County travel soccer.  As I read this (see 27.3), the maximum gradient allowed by the EPL is 1:41.  If I have my math right, that means you can have as much as 9 feet on a typical 120-yard long pitch.  That seems like a lot.

Also, this means Newcastle have been going downhill for a long time, but we knew that.

EPL, FA Cup and MLS

Busy times ahead.

The FA Cup semi-finals cut into the EPL weekend action but they make up for it with four mid-week matches.  So there'll be at least one EPL match for 11 straight days.  Plus FA Cup plus the start of MLS.

First to the important stuff.  Neither Newcastle or Fulham should really be expecting any points.  The Magpies host West Ham (Saturday 7:30 on NBCSN) and Fulham travel to London to face Arsenal (Sunday at 8:30 on NBCSN).  Expected points are .99 and .90 respectively, which means if the two sides match results, Newcastle's odds will get a little worse.  Draws in both would be fine with me.  Newcastle might want to man mark Jesse Lingard.  Just sayin'.

Odds suggest that the Champions League standings shouldn't change this week, with maybe one exception.  Certainly the top three look safe.  Man City (away to Aston Villa - Wednesday at 3:15 pm on NBCSN), Man United (hosting Burnley Sunday at 11 on NBCSN), and Leicester (hosting West Brom Thursday at 3 pm on NBCSN) are solid favorites.  Fourth to six - West Ham, Chelsea (hosting Brighton Tuesday at 3 pm on Peacock) and Liverpool (at Leeds Monday 3 pm on NBCSN)  - probably get wins too.  Spurs can take advantage of a quirk in the schedule to get six points while the others get three.  First they have Everton on Friday at Goodison Park (3 pm NBCSN) then get Southampton at home Wednesday at 1 pm on Peacock.  Sure it means they'll have played an extra match but if they can get closer in points, maybe there's a psychological advantage.  Grasping at straws?  

Flip-flop special of the week is Wolves - Sheffield United Saturday at 3:15 on Peacock.  Neither side has much to play for there.

I couldn't find TV coverage for the FA Cup semi-finals so you'll need ESPN+ to watch those.  Saturday's 12:30 match between Chelsea and Man City looks tight.  City are still in line for the unprecedented quad (EPL, League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League).  Chelsea, except for the weird performance against West Brom have not been giving up too many goals.  The Sunday match in Leicester - Southampton at 1:30.  Both sides have been shaky in league play recently but Leicester is favored.  

The traditional MLS regular season pits the MLS Cup winner versus the Supporters Shield winner.  Hey, that's us!  The Union travel to Columbus to face the Crew Sunday at 5:30 on FS1.  More national exposure for our boys.  We are still getting respect at 538, who have the Union ranked first in the East.  They have this match as basically a draw; that seems like a good result on the road against the Crew.

Good thing we're already in mid-season viewing condition.

Another Pleasant Valley Sunday

 with apologies to The Monkees

Joelinton (l) gets Newcastle an early lead

Wow, what a great few hours last Sunday morning.  Despite some decidedly shaky moments, the results could hardly have turned out better.  First, Newcastle put up one of their best performances of the year, a complete 180 from the debacle at Brighton.  Bruce did make some adjustments to the line up, starting Ritchie, Murphy and Longstaff.  The Magpies were also buoyed by Joe L Linton's finest performance in a Newcastle kit; besides finding the net for a change, he also exhibited the hold-up play he always seemed capable of providing, something quite critical for a side that is not exactly built to string together a long sequence of passes.

Atypically, Newcastle were on the front foot from the start and the early lead was deserved, if short-lived.  First an unlucky bounce in the six yard box quickly tied it up, then another from Harry Kane and we were behind 1-2.  I was trying to remind myself that the most important thing here was a good effort but the quality of play made me greedy for something from the match.  Fortunately, we got the equalizer in the 85th minute.  Willock's goal is an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment;  many fingerprints on this one - Manquillo, ASM, Joelinton, Ritchie, Almiron.  Note the key move by Allan Saint-Maximin who delivers the ball to Ritchie, who then sends a sweet cross into the box.  The draw was no less than they deserved.

We moved onto the second part of the Sunday brunch to watch Aston Villa host Fulham.  This was somewhat frustrating for awhile as the Grealishless Villans seemed unable to score.  It got worse after a sloppy attempted pass back by Tyrone Mings ended up with Mitrovic scoring the go ahead goal.  Fortunately, Villa responded admirably with three goals from 78 minutes on to take all three points.  

The net for Sunday morning was about 1.35 expected points - plus .13 for Newcastle and minus 1.22 for Fulham.  Relegation percentages at the end of the weekend went from 47 percent for both to 35% for Newcastle and 61% for Fulham.  Good day.

A Disturbance in the Force

Chelsea looked a gift horse in the mouth but didn't drink.  Or something like.  Home to West Brom, they had a perfect chance to strengthen their hold on fourth place.  A Pulisic goal had them up 1-0 but soon Thiago Silva was sent off with a second yellow.  Still, it's West Brom and you're at Stamford Bridge right?  Two goals in first half stoppage time said otherwise.  Two more second half goals and Chelsea were down 4-1.  A Mason Mount goal at 71 minutes gave some up that they might rescue a point but it was not to be.  With results elsewhere, this put a big dent in the Blues' Champions League hopes.

The Results Elsewhere

Man City were in control the whole way in a 2-0 win over Leicester City.  Their magic number is now 10 points, either earned by them or dropped by Man United.  Speaking of Man United and dropping points, the Red Devils looked in danger of doing just that versus Brighton; they needed an 83rd minute goal from Mason Greenwood to take a 2-1 win over the Seagulls.  Liverpool kept their thin Champions League hopes alive with a second straight league win, a 3-0 thumping of Arsenal.  The loss left the Gunners in 10th place, tied on points with Leeds United.

Biggest move of the weekend came from West Ham, who came close to coughing up a second straight 3-0 lead.  This time, against Wolves, they hung on for all three points and slipped into fourth place.  Jesse Lingard continued sparkle with another goal and an assist.  The finance text books say that loans do not pay dividends but this one sure has.  Even with the result, 538 still favors Leicester, Liverpool or Chelsea to grab the third and fourth Champions League spots.

The Dreaded E-word

Late in Aston Villa's comeback win over Fulham, the commentators suggested the Villans might still be in the hunt for one of next fall's three European league competitions.   Dennis was not amused. He has no interest in seeing his squad travel to former Russia states for midweek contests.  He probably doesn't have too much to worry about.  They are not really in the hunt for Champions League and the three Europa spots go to the 5th place finisher, the FA Cup winner, and the Carabao Cup winner.  According to 538 they have just a 1% chance of finishing 5th.  They are out of the FA Cup and the Carabao Cup which I believe means their chances there are 0%.  So the only danger is if either of those Cup winners already has a berth in European football and they reach down to 6th and 7th to fill the spots.  But 538 tips their chances for 6th at just 3% and 6% for 7th.   Probably okay.

Veni, Vidi, Vini

Been years since Latin classes but I believe it translates roughly as I came, I saw, I scored two goals against Liverpool in the first leg of Champions League quarterfinal. Vinicius Junior, or Vini Jr. for short, got Real Madrid started and then provided a little cushion in the first leg of tie with Liverpool.  Down 1-3 heading home with an away goal doesn't seem awful, but Liverpool were seriously outplayed here.  They'll have to be so much better at Anfield.

Lots of away goals in the first legs.  Chelsea got 2 and held Porto scoreless in their "away" match in Seville; they'll play their "home" match next Tuesday...in Seville. Gotta love those covid-19 travel protocols.  PSG got three goals in the snow at Munich and will have a good chance to put Bayern away in Paris on Tuesday.  Dortmund also got one on the road against Man City, who needed a late goal from Phil Foden to take a 2-1 lead after the first leg.  

A Hockey Game Broke Out

Apologies but the Concacaf Champions League action snuck up on me.  Sorry, the Scotiabank Concacaf Champions League.  The Union had their first ever action in this competition on Wednesday night against Saprissa, a Costa Rican club.  Normally the setting would be extremely unfriendly but instead of rabid fans, the stadium was filled with the sound of the howling wind and a flock of birds.  This was a very young and shorthanded squad.  The bench was filled with players who aren't even household names in their own homes.

Good effort from them as they were on the attack early.  An excellent cross from Mbaizo that CatsPurr shuh-BILL-koh expertly headed into the goal was the only tally of the day.  The boys looked tired near the end and were clearly hanging on for dear life in the last 15 minutes.  But they did and bring a 1-0 lead back to Subaru Park next week.  Great work from Jose Martinez at defensive midfielder and right back Mbaizo with numerous forays down the wing.  Fontana may have been a little out of place in Aaronson's role up top but that is probably only temporary until we get Santos or Burke back.

Things got messy towards the end, thanks in part to an overly lenient referee.  I would have shown some yellows before he did.  Matt Real's tackle was an orange card.  Blanco's tackle on Wagner in the closing seconds should have been a red but only got a yellow.  His tackle spurred a protective intervention by Glesnes, that rapidly degenerated into a larger scrum.  Video here.  No VAR at this stage so the ref was not able to reconsider his yellow.  Still possible a post-match disciplinary panel will correct that.  Good to see the young team not intimidated and a great result in the Union's first international showing.

Same Coach,  Same A-hole

After the most recent blown lead, Mourinho stepped up to the plate to take responsibility.  Not.  As detailed here, he was quick to transfer blame to the players.  I wonder, does he throw the players under the same bus that he parks during the match?  Just askin'.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say the Union's sporting director Tanner was getting some grief for lack of off-season moves?

Steve: No, I said he took Flach from someone.

Defining the Run-in

Arlo White offers an answer to the age-old question as to when does the run-in begin.  His take is that it starts after the spring international break.  Sounds reasonable to us.

Another Edgy Weekend

The fixtures again do not favor Newcastle.  Fulham are a prohibitive favorite as they host Wolves on Friday at 3 pm on Peacock.  Newcastle travel to the unfriendly confines of Turf Moor to take on Burnley Sunday morning (7 am on Peacock - ugh).  A pair of draws would be fine, and actually, so would a pair of losses.  But any Sunday in April on which you can end up in the relegation zone is a scary thing.

The Champions League relevant matches include Crystal Palace vs Chelsea (12:30 Saturday on NBC), West Ham - Leicester (Sunday at 9 on Peacock), Spurs - Man United (11:30 Sunday on Peacock - thanks a lot schedulers who put three Sunday morning matches on Peacock) and Liverpool hosting Aston Villa (10 am Saturday on NBCSN).  The West Ham/Leicester and Spurs/Man United contests look pretty tight.  

Midweek is crowded with the second leg of the Champions Leg quarterfinals on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Hard to choose which ones to watch.  I might go with PSG-Bayern over Chelsea-Porto on Tuesday, despite the EPL connection.  Liverpool-Real Madrid looks like the better choice on Wednesday.

And we have the second leg of the Union vs Saprissa at 8 pm Wednesday on FS1.  Good to be up 1-0 but that tie is far from over.  Also, interested to see if there's any carryover from the extracurricular activity at the close of the first leg,

Drop Zone Drama

I welcomed the international break as a respite from the horror show Tyneside.  I'll recount some of the highlights of the break for me, then step back into the grim reality that is Newcastle.

We Knew Him When

A familiar sight for Union fans - Aaronson celebrating goal

Finally tuned back into the USMNT.  Yeah, they were friendlies but it was a good chance to see what this team might look like heading into the WC Qualifiers this fall.  Among the pleasant surprises was seeing former Union player Brenden Aaronson making second half appearances in which he clearly had an impact.  In the 4-1 Jamaica win, he could have had an assist shortly after entering the game but Reyna couldn't finish after Aaronson gave him a sweet through ball.  Brenden got one anyway a few minutes later.  He also helped on another by creating space for Lletget on one of his two goals.  Aaronson didn't get on the scoresheet in the 2-1 win over Northern Ireland but still looked pretty dangerous.

Certainly some reason for optimism for this squad going forward.  Pulisic wasn't so great in the Jamaica match but did well against Northern Ireland.  Sergino Dest had an awesome strike versus Jamaica and looks unlike any defender I've ever seen in a US uniform.  Yunus Mensah is now officially on the US squad.  So many more players with soccer skills, not just raw athletic talent.  

Whoa No, Guadalajara Won't Do (apologies to Steely Dan)

 Once again, the US won't be competing in the Olympics as the team crashed out of the qualifying in a strange 2-1 loss to Honduras in Guadalajara.  Again.  The first Honduran goal came late first half stoppage time with the US looking like their heads were maybe already in the locker room.  The second goal was a dreadful mistake by keeper David Ochoa - a sloppy clearance that ricocheted off an Honduran attacker and into the net.  Jackson Yueill brought the US back into the match with a thunder strike but there would be no equalizer.  So the Yanks stay home again.

Save It For the EPL?

Checked in on several of the European WC qualifying matches.  Scotland's 2-2 draw with Austria might have been the best.  Scotland fell behind twice but rallied late to salvage a point from the match.  The equalizer came in the 85th minute on a lovely bicycle kick from Aston Villa's John McGinn, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Dennis was happy enough about it but wished that McGinn had saved that one for Aston Villa.

Saw Belgium take out Wales 3-1 then draw Czech Republic 1-1.  The latter was not exactly their finest but probably just a stumble on the way to qualification.  England-Poland was a bit of a snooze; Poland without Lewandowski is like trying to watch Newcastle score.  But they did manage to make it interesting with a second half goal that made England work for the 2-1 win.

Not your fault, buddy.  Ireland keeper Bazunu
walks off after 0-1 loss to Luxembourg

Ireland's chances took a serious hit with losses to Serbia (2-3) and, shockingly, Luxembourg (0-1).  Wished I could have seen the latter match, as it featured my FM Forest Green's keeper Gavin Bazunu.  He doesn't look culpable on the Luxembourg goal and in fact the game reports suggest he had a great game.   He has been awesome for my Forest Green side. 

  

Caveat Emptor

The Special One now comes with
 his own warning label

After a listless performance in the North London derby and then coughing up a two goal lead and losing to Dinamo Zagreb in Europa League action, Jose Mourinho was back in the hot seat.  A 2-0 win on the road over Aston Villa may have calmed things for the moment.  They climbed back to 6th and still have some hope of a top four finish.  Still, the picture (left) might be good advice for any owners hoping to sign Jose should he get sacked.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: You think that should have been a yellow card?

Steve: No, I said it was a Vinicius challenge

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Michael (as Spurs were losing 2-3 to Dinamo Zagreb): Two goal lead the most dangerous in football

Steve: Most dangerous lead is any Spurs' lead

Gutless Performance

Tried to put it off but now I must review the EPL action from the prior weekend.  Friday was great as Leeds rallied from a goal down to best Fulham 2-1 at Craven Cottage.  As the Cottagers were solid favorites here, this was a serious blow to Fulham.  So I went into Saturday thinking Newcastle were sort of playing with house money.  They were underdogs on the road, so I was hoping they just put up a good effort and if they got a point, well great.  They did neither.  The Chronicle used the word "gutless" numerous times in their write-up.  Might be a tad generous.  The 3-0 final for the Seagulls does not flatter them.  This was a thorough beat down.  A failure on every level.  I thought it might have signaled the end for Bruce, especially with the international break looming; if Ashley was going to pull the trigger, this would have been the time.  But no.  That means he's likely in for the rest of the season.  After the weekend results, 538 shows both Fulham and Newcastle with a 47% chance of relegation.  So the Leeds loss was more damaging to Fulham than the Newcastle debacle was for the Magpies.  Just doesn't feel that way.

Hopefully some of you tuned into the fun 3-3 draw between West Ham and Arsenal.  Jesse Lingard - the loan that keeps on giving - opened the scoring for the Hammers and by 32 minutes they were up 3-0.  An own goal from Soucek, then one from Craig Dawson made things considerably more interesting.  For the record, that meant West Ham had surrendered three consecutive own goals, two of them from Dawson.  Lacazette completed the comeback in the 82nd minute.  Ironically, the draw put a dent in both teams' hopes for the top four.  

Aston Villa came up totally flat against Spurs and went down 0-2.  Key point here was that we found out that Sanson is not French for Grealish.  

FA Cup Quarters

Frankly, I can't remember much about the matches.  Leicester beat Man United 3-1 with a couple more from the "in-form" EatANacho.  Chelsea, Southampton and Man City also advanced so the semi's will feature Chelsea-Man City and Leicester-Southampton.  One of these is not like the others.

In Case You Missed It

Courtesy my neighbor Mary R

Oh To Be in England Now That the Clocks Have Sprung Forward

Break's over and the 7 am matches have returned.  Actually the fixtures are on the tepid side and we might not see much happening in the table this weekend.

We are all about relegation now so our focus will be Sunday morning.  Newcastle host Spurs at 9:05 on NBCSN.  The good news is that we might see Allan Saint-Maximin back for the Magpies.  The bad news is that it probably won't matter.  A draw here would be stunning.  Then at 11:30 we'll watch, probably in perpetual fear, Aston Villa take on Fulham.  The Villans are favored, but not by a lot.  This is another weekend when losses for both Newcastle and Fulham will be far more damaging to Fulham.  I hear that Grealish is back for Aston Villa so that's a good thing.

Saturday afternoon has the two best matches for the top of the table chase.  Man City travel to face Leicester at 12:30 on NBCSN while Arsenal host Liverpool at 3 pm, also on NBCSN.  City and Liverpool are favored but both could be interesting matches.  The Leicester match is likely one of the last chances to derail City's title bid, if that's even possible at this point.  

Chelsea will look to take advantage of a home match versus West Brom (Saturday at 7:30 am on NBCSN if you're inclined to rise early).  Wolves - West Ham on Monday at 3 pm on Peacock might be worth a look.  

Fortunately, the midweek Champions League and Europa League quarterfinal action will more than compensate for the shortcomings of the EPL schedule.  Tuesday/Wednesday will have leg one of the Champions League quarters involving Real Madrid - Liverpool (Tuesday 3 pm), Man City - Dortmund (Tuesday 3 pm), Bayern - PSG (Wednesday 3 pm) and Porto - Chelsea (Wednesday 3 pm).  Thursday has four Europa quarter final first legs, all at 3 pm - Arsenal - Slavia Praha, Granada- Man United, Ajax - Roma and Dinamo Zagreb - Villareal.  Very cool that five EPL sides are still alive in these competitions.  Looks like you can brush up on your Spanish and take in Real Madrid - Liverpool on Univision but the rest are probably only available on ParamountPlus.  

I'm sure I missed something but that's all I got this week.