Championship Football

And I mean that in the worst way.  This weekend, I saw more than a few teams - and not just the relegation-threatened ones - play like second division clubs.

Projects and teaching will keep this short.  Which is just as well because you don't need to read me whine. 

Can We Have Those 85 Minutes Back?

What was the old adage about NBA games?  Something like save yourself some time and just watch the last five minutes.  That was the Fillebrown Derby in a nutshell.  If you waited until the 86th minute to tune in, you didn't miss anything.  That was when Ollie Watkins took a shot that deflected off Ciaran Clark and into the Newcastle goal.  Perfect.  But the Magpies rescued a point when Jamal Lascelles headed in a Jacob Murphy cross on basically the last play of the match.

A point was all we could realistically hope for and given that it took a last minute tally to get even that, this didn't feel too bad.  Dennis was disappointed, not so much with the 1-1 draw, but that it was not a scoreless draw.  He was fine dropping the two points but not so happy about Martinez not getting a clean sheet.  Your priorities do change when you're not threatened with relegation and qualifying for Champions League is out the window.

A mix of good news/bad news elsewhere for the Magpies.  West Brom (0-1 to Crystal Palace), Sheffield United (0-5 to Leicester with a hat trick for EatANacho) and Fulham (0-3 to Man City) all lost so Newcastle did edge away slightly from the bottom three.  On the other hand, a pair of 2-1 wins for Burnley (over Everton) and Brighton (over Southampton) means those guys are probably safe.  No, this is looking like a two-way battle between Newcastle and Fulham.

Missed Opportunities

The top three sides all won their matches but 4th place Chelsea dropped two points in a surprising 0-0 draw that should have been a goalfest at Leeds and West Ham was shut out by Man United (clearly the Hammers missed loanee Jesse Lingard, who by rule could not play against his parent club).  Both Everton and Spurs failed to take advantage.  The Toffees fell behind at home to Burnley and never recovered.  Tottenham got the initial goal on an improbable shot from Erik Lamela (see below) before coughing up two and falling 2-1 to Arsenal.  Actually, the match didn't seem that close.  

So Man City, Man United and Leicester look like locks for the top four.  Chelsea are clear favorites for the last spot.  Liverpool (1-0 winner over Wolves), West Ham and Spurs still have slim chances.

Lamela's Rabona

Oh get your minds out of the gutter.  A rabona is a shot in which the kicking leg crosses behind the back of the standing leg.  Best if I give you an example, this week's (year's?) YouTubeableMoment.  Sure there's some luck but it has to have enough power to get there and accuracy to be on frame.  When asked in a post game interview why he even tried it, this (language!) was his Lamela's response.  Erik had an interesting day, drawing two yellows in the space of seven minutes, leaving Spurs shorthanded for the final 15 minutes of the match.  Ironically, Tottenham was probably their most threatening after going down a man.

"My Favorite Analytic Is the League Table"

That was Ryan O'Hanlon, a FiveThirtyEight contributor in a round table discussion about how bad are Liverpool.  The full conversation is here.  My second favorite quote was from Tony Chow in response to when he would start to panic:

I would be concerned if Liverpool were to lose at home to a team like … Fulham. Wait a minute …

Good back and forth about injuries, bad luck, defensive pairings, etc.

Also, some interesting discussion about how Liverpool are doing just fine in Champions League.  The same could be said of Chelsea (into final eight of CL), Arsenal and Tottenham (both looking good heading into second leg of round of 16 Europa League matches [update: well that was a jinx for Spurs]).  All four have struggled with consistency in the EPL but are going deep into the various European competitions.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Steve: Did you say that Chris Wilder's replacement at Sheffield United is a damn ***hole?

Dennis: No, I said they chose Heckingbottom as the interim manager.

Clever Brits

Sheffield United - Not pretty in pink

During the Leicester - Sheffield United match, with the Blades in their away kits - the announcer (either Chris Wise or Chris Sutton) emphasized the futility of Sheffield United's attack by noting that "the salmon pink is failing to move up the blue river."  Sheer poetry.

FA Cup Weekend

The FA Cup quarterfinals puts a dent in the EPL schedule for the weekend.  The shortage is only in the number of matches, not their importance.  Two key relegation related matchups and two Champions League related fixtures.

Friday has Leeds hosting Fulham at 4 pm on NBCSN (Brits don't move the clocks ahead until 3/28).  Not real big on Leeds after they trashed Karen Carney but Newcastle really do need Fulham to lose.  Saturday afternoon at 4 pm on Peacock is a big one for Newcastle as they travel to Brighton.  The Magpies are underdogs here so a draw would be a big point.  Sunday at 11 am on Peacock is West Ham hosting Arsenal.  The Gunners kept their slim hopes for Europe alive last week with the win over Spurs but need to do it again this week against the Hammers.  The second match of the day is  Aston Villa - Spurs at 3:30 on NBCSN.  Pretty much a must win for Spurs at this point.  No word from Dennis as to whether a 0-0 draw is acceptable this time.

You'll need ESPN+ to catch the FA Cup Quarterfinals on Saturday and Sunday.  Details can be had here. Don't think it's mentioned in that article but these matches are at the home parks, not neutral venues.

With crowded work schedule and international break next week, we're going to take a week off as well.

Could've Been Worse

Though not by much.  We knew that an injury-riddled Newcastle would struggle at West Brom so the 0-0 draw, though disappointing, was not surprising.  At least they got a point.  No, the real killer was Fulham's 1-0 upset over Liverpool, at Anfield no less.  Even one point for the Cottagers would have been problematic but all three?  The result was so big that it totally shifted the relegation picture.  Going into the weekend the percentages at 538 were 29% for Newcastle, 55% for Fulham; now they are 41% to 32%.  In short, the Magpies are now "favored" to go down.

There was help elsewhere but nowhere near enough to offset the damage.  The Southampton win over Sheffield United was helpful.  So too was Leicester's 2-1 win over Brighton, though the Foxes took their sweet time on that one.  They trailed for much of the match until Eat-A-Nacho Iheanacho (Ee-an-acho phonetically so Eat-A-Natcho is really not that far off) leveled things at 62 minutes and Amartey got the game winner in the 87th minute.  Arsenal's weak 1-1 draw with Burnley - another unexpected point for a relegation rival - wasn't appreciated.  

Ironically, the weekend results did lift Newcastle to 16th but with their respective schedules, both Fulham and Brighton are projected to overtake the Magpies.

Only the Inauguration Date Has Changed

Man United decided that this time they would 1) score and 2) actually beat a top six side, ending Man City's 15 game win streak with a surprising 2-0 win.  The loss only pushes back the date on which City will clinch the title.  But, it did provide a big boost to United's CL chances; they are looking solid at 90% at 538.

Chelsea were also big winners.  I had hoped for a more interesting match from Everton but the Blues dominated in a 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge.  Even though one score was an own goal and the other a PK, Chelsea were mostly in control and their CL chances are vastly improved.

West Ham (2-0 over Leeds) and Spurs (4-1 over Crystal Palace) are still in the hunt.  Jesse Lingard continued to make the case for the Best Loan of the Winter Transfer Window as he earned a PK for West Ham; we'll let it slide that the PK was actually saved because he bounced on the rebound to score anyway.  In the Tottenham win, all Harry Kane could manage was two assists for Gareth Bale and two goals for himself.  Slackard.  We'll make his marvelous strike in the 52nd minute this week's YouTubeableMoment.  On paper, Liverpool still have a shot at Champions League except their recent form has been so bad it's hard to see them rallying to get back into the top four.  They have been held scoreless at home six times since January 1 and have lost six of their last seven.  

Playing Like Neither Wants to Qualify for Europa League

Speaking of scintillating 0-0 draws, Aston Villa versus Wolves was not one of them.  Normally, we might have expected some good back-and-forth action between these two sides.  Unfortunately, Villa were still without Grealish and Cash while Wolves just haven't been the same team as the last few years.  No, they really looked like two teams that dread the prospect of finishing between 5th and 7th and getting a Europa League spot.

You're Not Making the Case You Think You're Making

Lacazette unwittingly makes the case for the defense

Late in the 1-1 Burnley-Arsenal draw, Pepe took a shot that Burnely defender Erik Pieters blocked off the line.  Andre Marriner initially decided that Pieters had used his arm and awarded a PK, plus showed a red card for DOGSO.  The VAR quickly determined that the ball had hit Peters in the shoulder so there was no infraction.  The funniest part was seeing Lacazette point on Pieters body the exact spot where the ball hit, seeming to suggest that this was an obvious penalty.  Of course, in pointing to the shoulder, Lacazette in fact confirms that VAR got it right.  Maybe the players should have to pass a test on the Laws of the Game.  Kudos to Marriner and crew on this one for a) getting the call right and b) efficient and correct use of VAR to overturn a clear and obvious error.  

Are They Buying It?

Dude, we are on to you

In the very late stages of the marvelous second leg of the Juventus-Porto Champions League round of
16 tie, we got to see one of the seamy underbellies of the current game - shameful overacting.  Porto were desperately defending, trying to hold on to advance to the quarterfinals.  There was a collision and the Porto player went down like a shot, grabbing his face like he was in agony.  After some seconds of laying (lying?) there, the camera caught him peaking from behind his hands as he checked to see whether he needed to continue the performance.  Wish I'd gotten the license plate so I could call him out by name.  But you can see the picture (right).

Other than gamesmanship like that, which was prevalent the entire match, this was a classic.  Porto came in with a 2-1 lead from the first leg.  They went up by two early in the second leg with a softish PK.  Still, Juventus was not out of the match as two goals would be enough to send it to extra time.  They got one back early in the second half.  Then, Porto got a man sent off for a second yellow (for kicking the ball away and wasting time of all things).  Surely, with a man advantage, Juve would settle this one quickly enough.  And they did level things at 63 minutes.  With nearly 30 minutes to go, Juve had plenty of time to win in regulation.  They didn't, though 30 minutes of extra time, a man up, still worked in their favor.  Except Porto had other plans and slipped a goal in under the wall on a free kick at 115 minutes (Dennis asks where was the draft excluder?).  But not over yet.  Juve got one two minutes later.  The problem was, Porto now had two away goals to Juve's one so 4-4 was not good enough.  And that next goal was not forthcoming though it was a wild finish.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: So you're not impressed with the midfielder West Brom got on loan?

Steve: No, I said he was Okay

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did (But Probably Shouldn't Have)

During the Manchester derby

Steve: Jesus couldn't get to the cross

Dennis: They gotta work on nailing that one down

Steve: You're saying they need to do a better job of nailing the cross to Jesus

Dennis: Precisely

Yeah, we're both going to hell...

Fillebrown Derby

The weekend kicks off with Newcastle hosting Aston Villa Friday at 3 pm on Peacock.  Dennis has graciously offered a 0-0 draw in this one, which we would both gladly take.  For me that would be an unexpected point and for him it would lessen the prospects of Europa qualification plus a clean sheet for Martinez would tie him for the league lead.  

Two best/important matches Sunday.  At 12:30 (note that we move clocks forward a few weeks before the Brits) we have the London derby with Arsenal hosting Spurs.  Both teams' Champions League chances are hanging by a thread, though the Gunners' thread is of considerably thinner gauge.  At 3:15 Man United host West Ham.  The problem for the Hammers here it that their hottest player, loanee Jesse Lingard, cannot play in the match against his parent club. Both matches are on NBCSN.

Relegation scoreboard watching will continue for me.  This means I root for Man City over Fulham (Saturday 3 pm on Peacock) and Southampton over Brighton (8 am Sunday on Peacock).  

Key Champions League contenders Leicester and Chelsea have arguably winnable matches.  Leicester are home to Sheffield United (10 am Sunday on Peacock) and should prevail there.  Chelsea travel to face the always pesky Leeds (7:30 Saturday on NBCSN) but should be able to get all three as well.  Liverpool have Wolves on Monday at 4 on NBCSN; they need all three there to keep pace.

Champions League and Europa action Tuesday-Thursday next week too so no days off for awhile.  Fortunately, we are in good viewing shape after a busy winter of watching.

Pyrrhic Draw

Newcastle season in a nutshell

A few weeks ago I noted that even though the win over Southampton cost them Callum Wilson for two months and Fabian Schar for the season, a pyrrhic win was better than a pyrrhic loss.  But Saturday's pyrrhic draw is really pushing the limit.  Sure we got a point from the 1-1 draw but lost Almiron, Saint-Maximin (both until April) and Krafth (a few weeks?) in the process.  This is a blow from which the Magpies may not recover.  Dennis notes that 62% of our goals and 53% of our assists are now out with injuries.  I note that these are 62% and 53% of small numbers to begin with.  

Plus it's not like that point really helped the cause all that match.  Coupled with Fulham's 0-0 draw with Palace, Newcastle's relegation prospects barely improved at all.  We did get help midweek when Spurs handed Fulham a 1-0 defeat despite looking more like a bottom half of the table side.  So we maintain a three point lead (with a game in hand!) and the 538 percentages are 29% and 55%, an improvement from last week's 35/47.  And yet, prospects for staying up look dim.

No CL For You. Come Back, One Year

Aston Villa likely put paid to their chances for making Champions League with a puzzling 0-1 loss to Sheffield United.  Puzzling in that even though they were without Grealish and Cash again, 1) they had shown they could manage without the duo in a 1-0 weekend win over Leeds and 2) Sheffield played a man down for over 30 minutes.  Dennis did not seem distraught.  A top half of the table finish one year after nearly being relegated is progress enough for him plus the loss reduces the likelihood of dreaded Europa League qualification.

City Rule

Man City managed two more wins while many, though not all, in the chase pack were dropping points.  They have a 14 point lead heading into the Manchester derby.   As we suggested they would, Man Tied United got a 0-0 draw with Chelsea but also came up flat in the misty mists of Selhurst Park and could only manage a 0-0 draw there as well.  Leicester dropped four points with a draw to Burnley and loss to Arsenal.  Liverpool got their win versus Sheffield but then came up scoreless at home against Chelsea in a 0-1 defeat.  And West Ham took a 2-1 loss to Man City that slows their roll down a little

Though they technically dropped two points, a draw with Man United and win over Liverpool have to go down as a good week for Chelsea; in fact, they might be the best bet for third place right now.  Everton and Tottenham both came away with six points and kept themselves in the mix.  Newcastle fans appreciate Spurs' wins over Burnley and Fulham and Everton taking the measure of West Brom and Southampton was helpful too.

Style Matters

Lee Mason got himself into a big mess in West Brom - Brighton match.  You can see the incident here.  It is not pretty.  Sounds like Mason blew the whistle to allow the kick, then realized that the West Brom keeper was still setting up the wall and blew the whistle again.  My sense is that after blowing the first whistle he realized he didn't mean to do that so he quickly blew the second whistle.  What followed was not pretty.  First, he disallowed the goal.  Then he changed his mind and allowed it.  Then, with VAR assistance, he disallowed it.  The official reason given was that the ball had not entered the goal at the time of the second whistle.  

We are left with two questions.  Should the process have been better and was this the "right" decision?  Clearly the process sucked.  No where have a read that the important thing as a referee is to get the call right on the third time of asking.  Mason needed to slow everything down before he made a final ruling; changing a call twice just doesn't cut it.  I am of two minds as to whether they ultimately got to the right place.  On the one hand, I'm not aware of any requirement that the referee has to hold up play just because the defense isn't set.  The only limitation that I'm aware of is that the attacking team can't take the kick until the referee blows the whistle.  On the other, I seriously doubt I would have blown the whistle to proceed in that situation.  It's not a quick kick anymore so I probably wait until the keeper is in position.  

Watching West Brom Is A Football Manager Scouting Opportunity

We are into April in the virtual reality of Football Manager and Forest Green have just clinched promotion to the Championship Division.  We have an annoying tendency to play down to the level of the opposition but also come up big against the key rivals.  Most recently we effectively ended the race with a convincing 2-0 win over Barnsley.

With promotion we now get vastly improved salary and transfer budgets, meaning players that previously turned their noses up at playing for Forest Green now have some interest.  Surprisingly, three of them play for West Brom in the real world.  We are hoping to land Grady Diangana and Conor Gallagher on loan for help in the midfield and are taking a long look making a transfer bid on center back Kyle Bartley - yeah the one who scored a nifty header goal versus Brighton on Saturday.  At first I'm thinking how can it make sense to be looking at players from the 19th place side in the EPL but it actually makes sense if I'm trying to strengthen a Championship Division side.  

We All See It.  We All See It.

He has blue hair.  Blue

West Brom's striker Mbaye Diagne (left) is sporting a new dye job.  Here we see some NBCSN commentators trying their best - and failing -  to let it pass without comment.  

Yellow Balls Are Gone

No, it's not a ad slogan for a masculine hygiene product.  Rather, it should replace the robin as the first sign of spring.  On 2/19, the EPL switched back from the yellow "winter" ball to a white and blue model.  I had read last fall that the yellow ball was to be in use until late March when the clocks move forward.  Apparently, they felt they didn't have to wait any longer.

My Mistake

Man City right back Kyle Woolka

After consecutive Man City matches with Peter Drury behind the mic, I now realize I have been
mispronouncing their right back's name for all these years.   I that it was Kyle Walker but Drury has set me straight - it's Kyle Woolka.  BFS regrets the error and apologizes for any confusion we may have caused.

Separated at Birth?

We know who will play Leeds manager Simon Biesla in the biopic.
Charles Nelson Reilly would be perfect in the role.  The fact that he passed away in 2007 presents a slight problem but we'll figure something out.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did Chelsea just score?

Steve: No, but Giroud hit the post [the Frenchman literally collided with the post after an attempted diving header]

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis (with Villa about to lose to Sheffield): I guess this is payback for the Great Occlusion

Steve: At about 10 cents on the dollar

My Mistake Part II

Seems like many of the matches I said were only available on Peacock last week ended up on NBCSN.  Not sure whether it was because Michael B called the network to raise bloody hell or I was simply wrong.  In any case, BFS regrets the error and apologizes for any confusion it may have caused.

For Newcastle, matches don't come much bigger than Sunday 7 am at West Brom (NBCSN).  The Magpies will be undermanned but three points are close to essential here, mostly because they will struggle against better sides until they get some players back.  I suppose it is possible someone will step up - Willock, Gayle, Fraser?  

The Manchester derby on Sunday at 11:30 (NBCSN) looks like the match of the week.  A United loss and City have a 17 point lead.  As we've noted, United specialize in 0-0 draws against the top teams.  That result here would probably be about as good as the Red Devils could hope for.  We call your attention to Chelsea-Everton on Monday at 1 pm on NBCSN; that's a big one for both sides, though probably more important for the Toffees if they want to keep their CL hopes alive.  Spurs host Crystal Palace (Sunday 2:15 on Peacock) and can't afford less than three points in that one.  Same for West Ham hosting Leeds on Monday at 3 pm on Peacock.

On the relegation watch, we hope Liverpool can end its home scoring drought against Fulham (Sunday at 9 on NBCSN).  Wouldn't hurt if Leicester can beat Brighton and maybe Sheffield United beat or at least draw Southampton.  Arsenal can help too by beating Burnley.  

Not huge implications at this point but Aston Villa Wolves has the potential to be a good watch; hopefully at least Grealish will be back.  

Don't forget Champions League round of 16 second league action on Tuesday and Wednesday.  

So we got today off and looks like next Thursday off.  Should be enough to recover.