Hello Boys, I'm Back
Yes, it seems like mere days since we wrapped up last year's European season but it's already time to lace up the boots for the 2020-21 campaign. Though it's not like there hasn't been stuff to watch - Union have been busy plus Nations League - the calendar will be crowded starting this Saturday.
Unfortunately that calendar coincides with teaching three courses at Seton Hall and a busier consulting schedule so this preview won't be as long as I would like.
Another Season on the Brink
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| Grim faced - Dubravka expression says it all |
At least Newcastle were not static in this window. They've added Callum Wilson (F) , Ryan Fraser (M), Jamal Lewis (basically anywhere on the left), and Jeff Hendrick (M). If I look at their ratings from last year on whoscored.com, I am underwhelmed. But when I look at GenieScout, the tool I use in Football Manager, I have some hope, especially about Wilson and Lewis. Some scoring punch plus youth on the left side will help.
Unfortunately, this activity does not translate into improved projections for the season. So far I've found projections from The Guardian, Forbes, NBC, The Mirror, the Super Computer, Pinnacle, 538 and Fourfourtwo. All have the Magpies finishing 17th except Forbes; not clear what team they are looking at but I'll have whatever they're having. A bit depressing that the projections are so uniform; another season hanging around the drop zone.
The news gets worse as now Dubravka is out for 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury. Recall my analysis of last year's results that suggest he was a critical factor in Newcastle's "success" last year. Darlow (or newly acquired Gillespie) are not awful but simply not at the same level. Here's hoping to inspired seasons from Almiron, Saint-Maximin and Wilson.
Mixed Forecasts Elsewhere
Aston Villa have been a hot bed of transfer rumors but so far all they really got was Ollie Watkins. Not that he's chopped liver. But discussions continue about Josh King and other targets. Like Newcastle, the projections are not kind, ranging from 15th to 18th. Doing a straight average, I get them at consensus 18th.
The top of the table projections are incredibly consistent. Presented in "consensus order," only Man City, Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea are in anybody's top four. Given all they spent in this window on the likes of Werner, Silva, Chilwell and Havertz, Chelsea will certainly be looking for a high finish. Tottenham and Arsenal basically alternate in the projections between 5th and 6th, with no one forecasting them to break into the top four. Wolves, Leicester, Everton (added James Rodriguez!) and Southampton round out the rest of the consensus top ten.
The bottom is generally Aston Villa, and two of the newly promoted sides, Fulham and West Brom. Crystal Palace and Leeds - the third promoted side - pop up occasionally. Surprisingly, no one has Newcastle in that group. Leeds is an interesting case, as all but Forbes project them to do pretty well, finishing somewhere between 10th to 15th; the average of the projections has them 13th. The slightly higher rent district of the "lower mid-table" has Sheffield United, West Ham, Leeds, Burnley, Brighton, Newcastle and Crystal Palace.
Nine Points for the Union
Four matches since we last spoke and the haul was nine points, enough to lift the Union briefly into second place (on goal differential) in the East. Toronto slipped in a mid-week win over Montreal, dropping the Union back to third.
Aston Villa have been a hot bed of transfer rumors but so far all they really got was Ollie Watkins. Not that he's chopped liver. But discussions continue about Josh King and other targets. Like Newcastle, the projections are not kind, ranging from 15th to 18th. Doing a straight average, I get them at consensus 18th.
The top of the table projections are incredibly consistent. Presented in "consensus order," only Man City, Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea are in anybody's top four. Given all they spent in this window on the likes of Werner, Silva, Chilwell and Havertz, Chelsea will certainly be looking for a high finish. Tottenham and Arsenal basically alternate in the projections between 5th and 6th, with no one forecasting them to break into the top four. Wolves, Leicester, Everton (added James Rodriguez!) and Southampton round out the rest of the consensus top ten.
The bottom is generally Aston Villa, and two of the newly promoted sides, Fulham and West Brom. Crystal Palace and Leeds - the third promoted side - pop up occasionally. Surprisingly, no one has Newcastle in that group. Leeds is an interesting case, as all but Forbes project them to do pretty well, finishing somewhere between 10th to 15th; the average of the projections has them 13th. The slightly higher rent district of the "lower mid-table" has Sheffield United, West Ham, Leeds, Burnley, Brighton, Newcastle and Crystal Palace.
Nine Points for the Union
Four matches since we last spoke and the haul was nine points, enough to lift the Union briefly into second place (on goal differential) in the East. Toronto slipped in a mid-week win over Montreal, dropping the Union back to third.
Heading into those matches I would have argued that they needed at least six points and should have been thinking about more. The home wins over the struggling Pink Cows (1-0) and struggling even worse DC United (4-1) were required. A good memory from the NY match was Ray Gaddis crossing to Cats-purr shuh-BILL-koh for the game's only tally. For the DC match, seeing the Union come out early and dominate a team they needed to beat was heartening.
A trip to Mapfre Stadium to play Columbus isn't usually a good thing for the Union and with the Crew playing well, this was a tough fixture. To their credit, I thought the Union played them even up and the stats at 538 agree that this was basically a draw. Unfortunately a deflected shot found its way into the net and Columbus took all three points. Moving to an even worse House of Horrors - Harrison Arena - for the rematch with the Pink Cows was scary too, even if the home side was struggling. The scoreboard says it was a 3-0 rout for the Union. Watching the giveaways and how easily NY got the ball into dangerous positions only to either blow the shot or be foiled by some heroic defensive effort, I thought the Union were lucky to get the win. Again, 538 says the same thing. Then again, coming home with three points from Harrison, who cares? Check out this finish from Aaronson to open the scoring against the Red Bulls, this week's YouTubeableMoment.
A trip to Mapfre Stadium to play Columbus isn't usually a good thing for the Union and with the Crew playing well, this was a tough fixture. To their credit, I thought the Union played them even up and the stats at 538 agree that this was basically a draw. Unfortunately a deflected shot found its way into the net and Columbus took all three points. Moving to an even worse House of Horrors - Harrison Arena - for the rematch with the Pink Cows was scary too, even if the home side was struggling. The scoreboard says it was a 3-0 rout for the Union. Watching the giveaways and how easily NY got the ball into dangerous positions only to either blow the shot or be foiled by some heroic defensive effort, I thought the Union were lucky to get the win. Again, 538 says the same thing. Then again, coming home with three points from Harrison, who cares? Check out this finish from Aaronson to open the scoring against the Red Bulls, this week's YouTubeableMoment.
Jim Curtin has enjoyed some depth in the back line this season. He can rotate center backs between Elliott, McKenzie and Glesnes. With Gaddis, Real, Mbaizo, he had some options to survive with Wagner out due to injury. Not as much to work with in the midfield or up top. Creavalle is helpful but not much of an attacker. Encouraging to see Wooten's involvement with two of the goals against NY. Still, they need some depth in the midfield and at striker.
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| Just like the pros wear |
Nations League
Yes, I realize it's just a gimmick to get people like me to watch European friendlies. And it's working. The format is explained in this (highly stylized marketing) video; no question it's largely form over substance. However, it does offer alternate path to qualifying for the 2022 World Cup so it's not totally without purpose. And, though I have no data to back this up, I think it has made the line ups a bit more honest.
I took in a bunch of the matches over the last week during this international "break," which of course was not a break since the European club seasons didn't have their usual August starts. The Germany Spain 1-1 draw was pretty good. Portugal put the hurt on Croatia 4-1 even with Ronaldo on the bench with an infected toe. The two England matches (1-0 over Iceland) and Denmark (0-0 draw) were not necessarily the best arguments for the merits of this competition. In Reykjavik, England got their goal on a PK in second half stoppage time, then watched Iceland miss one two minutes later. Biggest news for England was that Phil Foden and Mason Greenwood got sent home after the first match for bring Icelandic beauty queens back to their hotel rooms in violation of quarantine rules. Okay, I realize I'm not making a good case for the Nations League...
Rule Changes
While you weren't looking, the rule makers tweaked that handling rule that chalked off so many goals last year. You know, the one where even an accidental handling anywhere in the buildup to a goal would see it disallowed? The clarification is:
Might help a little. Then there's this:A statement from the IFAB reads: “‘Accidental’ handball by an attacking player (or team-mate) is only penalised if it occurs ‘immediately’ before a goal or clear goal-scoring opportunity.
“If an attacking player accidentally touches the ball with their hand or arm and the ball then goes to another attacking player and the attacking team immediately scores, this is a handball offence.
“It is not an offence if, after an accidental handball, the ball travels some distance (pass or dribble) and/or there are several passes before the goal or goal-scoring opportunity.”
For clarity, a handball offence is characterised by the ball touching anywhere from the tip of a player's fingers to their upper arm, directly in line with the bottom of the armpit – essentially meaning anything below the shoulder is a foul.
I heard somebody suggest that long sleeves will be in this year as short sleeves might be used as a proxy by referees for calling hand balls.
Let's Get This Party Started
The weekend has a full slate of EPL matches. Sort of. The two Manchester clubs get the weekend off because of how recently they were involved in European competitions. There is the bonus that there are no simultaneous matches so you could watch all eight if you want to. And why wouldn't you?
Saturday kicks off too early for my taste with Fulham hosting Arsenal at 7:30 on NBCSN; this does mark the return of Craven Cottage as a Premier League venue. At 10, also on NBCSN, Southampton travels to another favorite BFS venue, Selhurst Park, to take on Crystal Palace; that could be the weekend's most competitive fixture. The feature NBC match at 12:30 is Liverpool-Leeds. Seemingly an afterthought for the day is the West Ham - Newcastle match at 3 pm on Peacock (the replacement for NBC Gold). We do appreciate not having to open on the road at Spurs or Arsenal. Not that West Ham are a push over but there's a chance the Magpies could nick a point here.
Sunday has West Brom -Leicester on NBCSN at 9, then Spurs - Everton on Peacock at 11:30. That second one could be an interesting test of whether the Toffees off-season moves will make them a tougher opponent. Michael B assures that though he will be on the road at that time, he will be listening on the radio.
Monday wraps up Matchweek 1 with Sheffield United - Wolves at 1 pm on NBCSN and Brighton hosting Chelsea at 3:15 on Peacock. Hoping to be able to check out that first one as it could be a close contest.
The Union wrap up this phase of the MLS schedule with a home match against New England at 7:30 on Saturday. The Revolution have become peskier but this would be a good match for the Union to show they are truly top of Eastern Conference material.
That should hold you for a week...
I thought you liked Darlow? COYS. La Liga starts this weekend as well. Forza Atleti!! ⚽️
ReplyDeleteI do but he's not as good as Dubravka.
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