Shorthanded

Too many project deadlines and papers to grade.  Paying for a summer of leisure so this will have to be short.

My primary take away this week is how much easier this game is when you have a man advantage.

Prime example is the Union.  Despite quickly falling behind Montreal at home, their fortunes improved dramatically after the Impact got a man sent off in the 15th minute.  From there, they had relatively little difficulty in disposing of Montreal 4-1.  So when they had to face Cincinnati on the road, playing full strength (and basically a five man back line to boot), perhaps we should not be surprised that they mounted little offense (i.e. no shots on goal) in a 0-0 draw.  Usually a point on the road is okay but I'm still left with a feeling that we really don't know how good this Union team is, despite their current third place standing.

Second example is Aston Villa versus Sheffield United.  The Blades John Egan got himself sent off in the 12th minute, giving the Villans a man advantage for most of the match.  Not that they took great advantage of it.  In fact, they were in danger of going down 0-1 after foul in the box but keeper Emiliano Martinez made a great save to keep things level.  Aston Villa managed a goal in the 63rd minute and crept away with a 1-0 victory.

We turn to the feature match between Chelsea and Liverpool for Exhibit C.  In first half stoppage time of a 0-0 match, Andreas Christensen got a straight red for DOGSO.  Liverpool pretty much dominated from there on out, although again, the shorthanded team had a chance with a PK that was saved.

Also, we have Everton 5-2 over West Brom, with the Toffees helped along by Kieren Gibbs's sending off in first half stoppage time.  The Baggies actually tied that one up at 2-2 after the ejection but the doors fell off in the final thirty or so minutes.

You might notice a red card for Brighton in the Newcastle match but that came in the 89th minute of an 0-3 debacle for the Magpies.  In other words, way too late to make a difference.  A completely different team than we saw against West Ham, despite the exact same personnel.  

Dennis: I was only half watching but they never really seemed to be in it

Steve: Well, they were only half playing so that's fair

Apologies to other results but gotta move on.  Jeff H probably doesn't want to talk about Man United loss to Crystal Palace anyway.

Less Peacock

Though the experience with Peacock wasn't awful, I am happy to see a return to mostly NBCSN and NBC for this week's fixtures.  The schedulers are stretching out each match week so that there are no concurrent matches, allowing those with no life to see every match.  

Liverpool - Arsenal Monday at 3 pm (okay that one is Peacock) looks like an important test for the undefeated Gunners.  I am not holding out for any points from the Spurs-Newcastle fixture Sunday at 9 (NBCSN).  Saturday's 10 am contest between Crystal Palace - Everton features a surprisingly undefeated Eagles squad versus the rejuvenated Toffees that might be a good watch.  Aston Villa will go for two in a row, traveling to Craven Cottage to face Fulham (12:45 Monday on Peacock).  Man United will try to right the ship against Brighton on Saturday morning (7:30 NBCSN).

MLS announced the rest of the season schedule.  The Union have Miami on Sunday at 7:30 pm.

Sorry for the abbreviated post and it will probably be like this for another few weeks until a couple of courses are wrapped up.

If the Season Ended Today...

...it would have been only one game long. But I did enjoy seeing Newcastle win their opening match for a change as opposed to waiting weeks to put up their first points on the table. Limited time and memory so this will likely be short.

A strange weekend taking in matches in so many different media. First two on TV - Arsenal thump Fulham and Crystal Palace slip past Southampton. Liverpool Leeds is a hoot with the newcomers coming back three times before the defending champs seal a win with a PK in the 88th minute. First half was on TV, second half on my phone (NBC Sports app) while driving up to the Poconos; more accurately, I was in the car, Laura was driving so it's not as dangerous as it sounds. Once up here, I watch the Union match on ESPN+ via my computer. And after everybody's gone to bed, I watch the West Ham - Newcastle replay on computer via Peacock. Sunday's matches are both cast from my phone to the TV. Monday's matches are back to the computer.

Newcomers Shine

Wilson and Hendricks strong in debuts

Steve Bruce wasted no time in putting the new signings to work. Saturday's starting 11 vs West Ham included Callum Wilson up top, Jamal Lewis at left back and Jeff Hendrick in midfield as the Magpies went with a 4-4-2. Curiously, the lineup did not include Miguel Almiron; Bruce explained later he wanted a more physical team against the Hammers. Have to say just about everything he tried worked in a 2-0 victory in which the Magpies looked the better side. Wilson had the opening goal. Hendricks assisted on Wilson's goal and got one for himself to seal the victory. Lewis was a constant nuisance to West Ham with multiple forays down and crosses from the left side. Andy Carroll didn't score but was an intimidating presence, especially in Newcastle's own 18. And Almiron came on late to set up Hendricks' goal.  All good.

Other Random Thoughts on EPL Action

The stats at 538 say Liverpool crushed Leeds but the 4-3 match was exciting.  They played attractive football and the promising forecasts for them may be on target. 

Everton's 1-0 win over Spurs suggests a rejuvenated squad.  Last week I was focused on James Rodriguez but the additions of midfielders Allan and Doucoure might have even more impact.  Also, Pickford looked like a keeper who may have regained his confidence.

Speaking of keepers, how is it that Chelsea spent over £200 million pounds this transfer window yet Kepa is still between the sticks for them?  He was arguably the weakest part of last year's squad and he looked culpable on Brighton's leveler.  Later goals from Reece James (rocket!) and Zouma meant a reasonably comfortable 3-1 win but this seem's like an ongoing problem.

Peacock

Still not loving this idea of so many matches on Peacock.  I don't mind forking over the $50 for a season pass and their replays seem to work well enough.  But so many fewer matches on NBCSN is not helpful.  With the TV matches, I can DVR and have some control over the schedule as opposed to being at the mercy of Peacock's schedule of posting replays.  Put me down as a no for now.  Yeah, first world problems, I know...

You Say You Want a Revolution...

No, just for the Union to beat them at home.  And when New England's Matt Polster got his second yellow card in the 56th minute, things were looking good.  Except after having the run of play, this advantage seemed to confuse the Union.  When Anthony Fontana came on in the 64th minute, it was still 0-0.  The 21 year-old moved things along with a "dainty doop" (Tommy Smyth's words) in the 73rd minute.  But of course, the Union still looked unsteady and sure enough surrendered the equalizer at 81 minutes.  A draw at home playing the second half a man up is no way to go through life.  Fortunately, Fontana had more in store.  Check out his game winner in the 95th minute, easily this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Also, the ATT MLS goal of the week.

So they escape with the win and move back into second in the conference.  Not the most reassuring of victories though. 

Werewolf of London...Again?

Bales back in London?

By the time you read this, Tottenham will likely have completed a season-long lone deal to bring Gareth Bale back to the club.  The hirsute Welshman has been out of favor at Real Madrid for some time so he's probably keen on the move.  Sounds like he might take some playing time from Lucas Moira.

Also on the personnel front, BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S gives us a heads up that Sergino Dest might be going to either Barcelona or Bayern.  Dest (Dutch dad, American mom) has played three times for the USMNT.  I'll confess to not knowing much about him but if either one of these European sides wants him, that sounds good.  Let's hope it's not much Adu ado about nothing.

More Peacock

As of this writing, eight of this weekend's matches are on Peacock, just two on NBCSN and none on NBC.  The weekend's feature match - Chelsea vs Liverpool is 11:30 on Sunday and no TV coverage.  Pardon me but WTF?  The NBCSN matches are Arsenal - West Ham (3 pm Saturday) and Leicester - Burnley (2 pm Sunday); neither is projected to be close though Burnley are nobody's pushover.  

Saturday's most interesting contest for me is Leeds - Fulham as two of the newcomers face each other; this is where we can get a sense of whether Leeds is in a different league than the other two newly promoted sides.  Sunday morning will likely be busy as Tottenham travel to Southampton at 7, Newcastle try for two consecutive wins with a home contest against Brighton at 9, then the feature match between Chelsea and Liverpool.  Spurs may be up against it a bit with Southampton on the road but they really don't want to drop their first two.  Newcastle should be good for at least a point at home vs the Seagulls except this is Newcastle so who knows.

On Monday at 1 pm, Aston Villa finally take the pitch, hosting Sheffield United.  The Villans, having not played yet sit 9th in the table.  Monday's second match at 3:15 is worth a look as Man City face Wolves at Molineux; of course the Citizens are big favorites but Wolves do have some credibility as giant killers, or at least giant drawers.

MLS announced Phase 2 of the season with three more contests for each team.  The Union get two consecutive road matches, facing Montreal Sunday night at 7 pm and Cincinnati on Wednesday at 7:30.

Hopefully this Peacock thing is going to work out...

Do It Again

Musical accompaniment courtesy Steely Dan


Hello Boys, I'm Back

Yes, it seems like mere days since we wrapped up last year's European season but it's already time to lace up the boots for the 2020-21 campaign.  Though it's not like there hasn't been stuff to watch - Union have been busy plus Nations League - the calendar will be crowded starting this Saturday. 

Unfortunately that calendar coincides with teaching three courses at Seton Hall and a busier consulting schedule so this preview won't be as long as I would like.

Another Season on the Brink

Grim faced - Dubravka
expression says it all

At least Newcastle were not static in this window.  They've added Callum Wilson (F) , Ryan Fraser (M), Jamal Lewis (basically anywhere on the left), and Jeff Hendrick (M).  If I look at their ratings from last year on whoscored.com, I am underwhelmed.  But when I look at GenieScout, the tool I use in Football Manager, I have some hope, especially about Wilson and Lewis.  Some scoring punch plus youth on the left side will help.

Unfortunately, this activity does not translate into improved projections for the season.  So far I've found projections from The Guardian, Forbes, NBC, The Mirror, the Super Computer, Pinnacle, 538 and Fourfourtwo.  All have the Magpies finishing 17th except Forbes; not clear what team they are looking at but I'll have whatever they're having.  A bit depressing that the projections are so uniform; another season hanging around the drop zone.

The news gets worse as now Dubravka is out for 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury.  Recall my analysis of last year's results that suggest he was a critical factor in Newcastle's "success" last year.  Darlow (or newly acquired Gillespie) are not awful but simply not at the same level.  Here's hoping to inspired seasons from Almiron, Saint-Maximin and Wilson.

Mixed Forecasts Elsewhere

Aston Villa have been a hot bed of transfer rumors but so far all they really got was Ollie Watkins.  Not that he's chopped liver.  But discussions continue about Josh King and other targets.  Like Newcastle, the projections are not kind, ranging from 15th to 18th.  Doing a straight average, I get them at consensus 18th.

The top of the table projections are incredibly consistent.  Presented in "consensus order," only Man City, Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea are in anybody's top four.  Given all they spent in this window on the likes of Werner, Silva, Chilwell and Havertz, Chelsea will certainly be looking for a high finish.  Tottenham and Arsenal basically alternate in the projections between 5th and 6th, with no one forecasting them to break into the top four.  Wolves, Leicester, Everton (added James Rodriguez!) and Southampton round out the rest of the consensus top ten.  

The bottom is generally Aston Villa, and two of the newly promoted sides, Fulham and West Brom. Crystal Palace and Leeds - the third promoted side - pop up occasionally.  Surprisingly, no one has Newcastle in that group.  Leeds is an interesting case, as all but Forbes project them to do pretty well, finishing somewhere between 10th to 15th; the average of the projections has them 13th.  The slightly higher rent district of the "lower mid-table" has Sheffield United, West Ham, Leeds, Burnley, Brighton, Newcastle and Crystal Palace.


Nine Points for the Union

Four matches since we last spoke and the haul was nine points, enough to lift the Union briefly into second place (on goal differential) in the East.  Toronto slipped in a mid-week win over Montreal, dropping the Union back to third.

Heading into those matches I would have argued that they needed at least six points and should have been thinking about more.  The home wins over the struggling Pink Cows (1-0) and struggling even worse DC United (4-1) were required.  A good memory from the NY match was Ray Gaddis crossing to Cats-purr shuh-BILL-koh for the game's only tally.  For the DC match, seeing the Union come out early and dominate a team they needed to beat was heartening.

A trip to Mapfre Stadium to play Columbus isn't usually a good thing for the Union and with the Crew playing well, this was a tough fixture.  To their credit, I thought the Union played them even up and the stats at 538 agree that this was basically a draw.  Unfortunately a deflected shot found its way into the net and Columbus took all three points.  Moving to an even worse House of Horrors - Harrison Arena - for the rematch with the Pink Cows was scary too, even if the home side was struggling.  The scoreboard says it was a 3-0 rout for the Union.  Watching the giveaways and how easily NY got the ball into dangerous positions only to either blow the shot or be foiled by some heroic defensive effort, I thought the Union were lucky to get the win.  Again, 538 says the same thing.  Then again, coming home with three points from Harrison, who cares?  Check out this finish from Aaronson to open the scoring against the Red Bulls, this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Jim Curtin has enjoyed some depth in the back line this season.  He can rotate center backs between Elliott, McKenzie and Glesnes.  With Gaddis, Real, Mbaizo, he had some options to survive with Wagner out due to injury.  Not as much to work with in the midfield or up top.  Creavalle is helpful but not much of an attacker.  Encouraging to see Wooten's involvement with two of the goals against NY.  Still, they need some depth in the midfield and at striker.

Just like the pros wear

Checking the MLS website, I don't see any fixtures listed for the next phase of the season.  Right now games are only posted through 9/16.  In other news, my MLS shirt - just like the ones they wear on the sidelines - came this week.  Designed by the Union's own Warren Creavalle, you can get it on the MLS website.  Profits go to NAACP Legal Defense Fund, 100 Black Men of America and the Player's Coalition in partnership with Black Players for Change.

Nations League

Yes, I realize it's just a gimmick to get people like me to watch European friendlies.  And it's working. The format is explained in this (highly stylized marketing) video; no question it's largely form over substance.  However, it does offer alternate path to qualifying for the 2022 World Cup so it's not totally without purpose.  And, though I have no data to back this up, I think it has made the line ups a bit more honest.

I took in a bunch of the matches over the last week during this international "break," which of course was not a break since the European club seasons didn't have their usual August starts.  The Germany Spain 1-1 draw was pretty good.  Portugal put the hurt on Croatia 4-1 even with Ronaldo on the bench with an infected toe.  The two England matches (1-0 over Iceland) and Denmark (0-0 draw) were not necessarily the best arguments for the merits of this competition.  In Reykjavik, England got their goal on a PK in second half stoppage time, then watched Iceland miss one two minutes later.  Biggest news for England was that Phil Foden and Mason Greenwood got sent home after the first match for bring Icelandic beauty queens back to their hotel rooms in violation of quarantine rules.  Okay, I realize I'm not making a good case for the Nations League...

Rule Changes

While you weren't looking, the rule makers tweaked that handling rule that chalked off so many goals last year.  You know, the one where even an accidental handling anywhere in the buildup to a goal would see it disallowed?  The clarification is:

A statement from the IFAB reads: “‘Accidental’ handball by an attacking player (or team-mate) is only penalised if it occurs ‘immediately’ before a goal or clear goal-scoring opportunity.

“If an attacking player accidentally touches the ball with their hand or arm and the ball then goes to another attacking player and the attacking team immediately scores, this is a handball offence.

“It is not an offence if, after an accidental handball, the ball travels some distance (pass or dribble) and/or there are several passes before the goal or goal-scoring opportunity.”

Might help a little.  Then there's this:

For clarity, a handball offence is characterised by the ball touching anywhere from the tip of a player's fingers to their upper arm, directly in line with the bottom of the armpit – essentially meaning anything below the shoulder is a foul.

I heard somebody suggest that long sleeves will be in this year as short sleeves might be used as a proxy by referees for calling hand balls.

Let's Get This Party Started

The weekend has a full slate of EPL matches.  Sort of.  The two Manchester clubs get the weekend off because of how recently they were involved in European competitions.  There is the bonus that there are no simultaneous matches so you could watch all eight if you want to.  And why wouldn't you?

Saturday kicks off too early for my taste with Fulham hosting Arsenal at 7:30 on NBCSN; this does mark the return of Craven Cottage as a Premier League venue.  At 10, also on NBCSN, Southampton travels to another favorite BFS venue, Selhurst Park, to take on Crystal Palace; that could be the weekend's most competitive fixture.  The feature NBC match at 12:30 is Liverpool-Leeds.  Seemingly an afterthought for the day is the West Ham - Newcastle match at 3 pm on Peacock (the replacement for NBC Gold).  We do appreciate not having to open on the road at Spurs or Arsenal.  Not that West Ham are a push over but there's a chance the Magpies could nick a point here.

Sunday has West Brom -Leicester on NBCSN at 9, then Spurs - Everton on Peacock at 11:30.  That second one could be an interesting test of whether the Toffees off-season moves will make them a tougher opponent.  Michael B assures that though he will be on the road at that time, he will be listening on the radio.

Monday wraps up Matchweek 1 with Sheffield United - Wolves at 1 pm on NBCSN and Brighton hosting Chelsea at 3:15 on Peacock.  Hoping to be able to check out that first one as it could be a close contest. 

The Union wrap up this phase of the MLS schedule with a home match against New England at 7:30 on Saturday.  The Revolution have become peskier but this would be a good match for the Union to show they are truly top of Eastern Conference material.

That should hold you for a week...