Too Real

Apparently I spoke too soon about Football Manager being safe from the virus.  As I was preparing the lineup for the 1/25/20 match versus Macclesfield, the team doctor informed me that goalkeeper Adam "Visible Hands" Smith had picked up a virus.  We had to send him home to prevent the virus from spreading to other team members.  I am not making this up.  Here's the screenshot from the game:

To quote Dennis, "Too real, too real."  The good news is that this appears to have been entirely coincidental.  I'm now up to February 5th in the game and no additional players have contracted the virus.  But for a moment there...


Commentators Gonna Commentate

Courtesy of Dennis, check out Nick Heath, rugby commentator, as he applies his trade to ordinary life in these videos.  All good. 

That's all I got.  Status quo on the professional leagues.  Which is good in that Newcastle and Aston Villa haven't dropped any points recently but bad in that Villa still sit in the relegation zone.

What To Do?

A question that works on multiple levels.

Star of Bethlehem weed is biggest
casualty of suspended play

Closer to home, I have had to find other things to do with the approximately 16 hours a week I spend watching soccer (8-10 games per week [4 Saturday, 2 Sunday, 2-4 weekday] at 1 hour 45 minutes per game).  This week the time went to a long bike ride with BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S, some good runs, and six buckets of the pervasive Star of Bethlehem pulled from my lawn.  Also, a lot of Football Manager.  Golf was supposed to fill a big chunk of the void but my club and most courses are closed.

More broadly the question applies to what will happen to the various leagues when this period of contest interruptus is over.  But it's hard to answer that when we don't know:

1) how long will play be suspended
2) how long will leagues need to get started once the suspensions are lifted

One question has been answered.  The 2020 Euro Championships have been postponed until 2021.  The press release from UEFA is here.  Note that the release does discuss how this postponement might work to allow for completion of the current club competitions.

And what of those competitions?  Sounds like there are already discussions on how to complete the Champions League and the Europa League.  Cool.  But what about the domestic leagues?  EPL's updated position is outlined here.  Games will begin no earlier than April 30.  The rule that requires the season to be completed by June 1 is waived.  But they still have the problem of bumping into the start of next season.  Ideas for dealing with an incomplete season are discussed here.  The idea to declare the season null and void is dumb.  They played more than 75% of the games.  Are we to pretend that it just didn't happen?  They could likely finish the season in two months, maybe less, since most teams have only nine games left.  The bigger problem might be how much lead time is needed before games could start.

Completing the entire season would obviously be best (unless you're Aston Villa).   If they have to accept a less than complete season, the next decision would be about promotion/relegation.  That gets complicated.  For example, the top two from the Championship division are automatically promoted while third through sixth compete in a knockout playoff for a third promotion spot.  Do we just take the top three and bag the playoff?  And what about relegation from the EPL?  The current bottom three would have had nine more games to stave off demotion.  Is it fair to drop them without a complete season?  An idea being discussed would promote the current first and second place teams from the Championship division (West Brom and Leeds) while not relegating any side from the EPL.  The 2020-21 season would have 22 teams with four facing relegation.  Haven't read about the ripple effect through the lower divisions but obviously there would be some things to work out.  I know one person who would be fine with this (looking at you Dennis).

MLS updated their situation Thursday.  Details are here.  Games will not start until May 10 at the earliest.  They do express the intent to complete the season in full.  But losing two plus months makes that seem difficult.  Currently the MLS Cup final would be on November 10; how far back can they push that?  Would require many mid-week matches.

Most depressing thing in the last week?  On Wednesday, the day before spring, the Inquirer sports section was six pages on the NFL draft and little else.

The good news is that there is no sign of COVID-19 infecting my Football Manager virtual reality and it's January 25th in the game.  We may be safe.

And may you be safe too.

P.S. - Jeff H sends along this article from Rory Smith of the NY Times.  I get some of what he's saying.  But I also think about how American fans have returned after the various strikes of the major sports leagues.  And those were situations in which the fans were angry at the organizations and players because the stoppages were self-inflicted. 

To Live and Tie in LA

Those who stayed up for the LAFC - Union contest at 11 pm Sunday were handsomely rewarded.  After a weekend of largely desultory contests from the EPL, the chaotic 3-3 draw was refreshing.

Going into the match, we clearly had low expectations, taking on one of the league's best in their home park.  A lively start by the Union was capped by tasty shot from Sergio Santos in the 25th minute.  Carlos Vela took care of that lead with a quality finish at 38 minutes.  New import Jakob Glesnes got what would be a wild second half off to a great start.  Check out this goal, easily this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Based on the mowing lines on the pitch, it looks like about 38 yards to me. Apparently Glesnes is Norwegian for "Thunder Foot."   A minute later that lead was gone thanks to Diego Rossi.  Andre Blake was making all kinds of saves to keep the score level until Santos teamed up with Aaronson to get the Union their third lead of the night.  That one lasted all of two minutes. Fun all the way to the end, the 3-3 draw was as entertaining as it was unexpected.

Someday when I have the time, I'll do research on the Five Minute Rule, which basically says that a disproportionate share of goals are scored within five minutes of an earlier goal.  Certainly Saturday night offered some examples.


des·ul·to·ry

/ˈdesəlˌtôrē/

Learn to pronounce

adjective

1. lacking a plan, purpose, or enthusiasm.

Last weekend was full of riveting EPL contests.  This weekend not so much.  If you missed all of the 10 am matches, consider yourself lucky. Most of the others weren't that great either. 

Almost Over the Line

ASM after what would be the game winner
Getty Images

Newcastle came out lively enough but the match with Southampton was definitely poised to go either way.  Then Djenepo was sent off on a straight red for a serious foul on Hayden.  The initial call was yellow but Graham Scott went to the monitor himself and realized it had to be red.  That put the Magpies on the front foot for the rest of the match.  Unfortunately it wasn't until the 79th minute that Saint-Maximin scored the game's only goal.  Along the way Matt Ritchie missed Newcastle's first PK of the year.  To be fair it was one of six excellent saves by keeper Alex McCarthy.  Gayle started up top and had several good chances but missed.  Ritchie had an ugly trifecta that included a missed PK, yellow card and early hook.  Not pretty but a critical win that takes Newcastle to 13th place with 35 points. Relegation is looking unlikely at this point though we wouldn't mind another three to five points.

The rest of Saturday's catalog was just as ugly but at least the results went mostly in the right direction for me and Dennis.  Liverpool were listless but ultimately beat Bournemouth 2-1.  Crystal Palace scratched out a 1-0 win over Watford, as did Sheffield United against Norwich.  Arsenal eked out a 1-0 win over West Ham as we saw VAR give instead of take away a goal.  Ozil had been flagged for offside but the review showed he was on, just on.  Surprisingly, Wolves only drew Brighton at home but even that meant dropped points for a relegation rival.

Spurs continued to flounder in a 1-1 draw against Burnley.  Sure the Clarets are tough at Turf Moor but something is just not right with Tottenham and one feels it's more than just missing Kane and Son.

So we were totally wrong about Sunday's early match as Chelsea easily dispatched Everton 4-0.  Probably because the Toffees were wearing salmon colored jerseys.  The Manchester derby was worth watching and gave Jeff H more cause for celebration.  United got the lead on a nifty set piece; that the free kick resulted from a questionable foul call by Mike Dean takes nothing away from Martial's finish.  Plus anyway, United should have gotten a PK minutes later when Fred was booked for simulation though the replay pretty clearly showed he was kicked/tripped in the box.  A back and forth contest with six yellow cards that stayed 1-0 until stoppage time, when McTominay curled in a long shot after a give away by keeper Ederson.

The match week concluded with a depressing 0-4 loss by Aston Villa at Leicester.  I know we weren't looking for a result but the final score just underscores how far things have gone off the rails for Villa after a decent start last fall.

With their wins, Leicester (95%), Chelsea (79%) and Man United (75%) are now big favorites to get the Champions League spots behind Liverpool.  Wolves are next closest at a distant 23%.  At the other end of the table, Norwich (94%)  have just about sealed their fate while Aston Villa (70%) face long odds.  Bournemouth (52%) are the leading candidate for the third spot but West Ham (31%), Watford (25%)  and Brighton (19%) are right there; Southampton and Newcastle are looking better at 4% chances.

Champions League

Two goals from sub Llorente break Michael B's bad awful spell
Laurence Griffiths Getty Images

Tuesday saw yet another bad day for Spurs as they looked overmatched against RB Leipzig.  The 0-3 result meant an 0-4 loss on aggregate.  But Michael B's bad run came to an end on Wednesday when his beloved Atletico Madrid engineered an unlikely come back against Liverpool, at Anfield no less.  Recall that Atleti came in with a 1-0 lead.  But they were pressed by a relentless Liverpool from the jump.  A goal by Wijnaldum at 30 minutes leveled things.  Despite the constant pressure, Liverpool could not find a goal in regulation so we proceeded to extra time.  Firmino's goal just four minutes into extra time seemed to be the final blow to Atleti's chances.  Except that an away goal by Atleti would allow them to advance even with a 2-2 aggregate.  So three minutes later there was substitute Marcos Llorente slotting one passed replacement keeper Adrian.  Still plenty of time for Liverpool to find a game winner.  Except it was AM that scored - twice more in fact - to seal the improbable 4-2 win on aggregate.  And all of sudden Liverpool look very mediocre.

So Dumb Even a Caveman Wouldn't Make That Argument

Wait, did USSF justify pay differential between the MNT and WNT because men are faster and stronger?  I think they did; details here.  Or go right to the source document here.  The USSF draws on information from an article entitled "Sex and Sport" published in Law and Contemporary Problems, noting that article includes information:

 (describing the scientific basis for “the average 10-12% performance gap between elite male and elite female athletes,” which includes differences between males and females in “skeletal structure, muscle composition, heart and lung capacity including VO2 max, red blood cell count, body fat, and the absolute ability to process carbohydrates,” and noting, by way of example, that “no matter how greate the great Katie Ledecy gets…she will never beat Michael Phelps or his endurance counterparts in the pool”)

I'll acknowledge that there may be pay differences that arise because of prize money available, revenue generated, etc; though some of them aren't convincing either.  For example, there appears to be no restriction preventing USSF from pooling all FIFA revenues to equalize pay.  And the men's team doesn't seem to be opposed to that concept.

But all that aside, did USSF really want to advance this particular argument?  Since the document was filed 1) the president of USSF resigned, 2) the USSF has publicly apologized and 3) sponsors like Coca-Cola and AllState are pissed. Brilliant.

What Happens Now?

By Friday morning just about everything is shut down.  I was fretting over whether to go to the Union opener Saturday night.  MLS made that decision for me by suspending the season until April 11.  EPL and Champions League had appeared headed to a policy of playing the games in empty stadia but eventually they went with postponement too.  Premier League play is suspended until April 4th; the schedule for Champions League fixtures "will be communicated in due course."  La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 are now, or will be shut down.  

Frankly, I'm less concerned about getting coronavirus than I am about finding out how shallow my life is without soccer.

Same guy, different color tie

I do have one plan to fill the void. FOOTBALL MANAGER!  I did a second reboot last fall.  After starting with FM 2019 and Chester, I realized that one of the things I like about the game is seeing some of my players in FA Cup, international and other matches.  But with an older version of the game and a team in the sixth division, which is where Chester currently play, it might be years before I'd see any of those players.  So I bought FM2020 and got myself hired by Forest Green.  Why them?  They've been featured twice in BFS for their green stadium and vegan stadium food.  Plus they are League 1.  So with a newer edition of the game and a higher level team, I might be seeing some of these players soon, especially some of the loaned players from the Premier League and Championship division that are actually willing to play for Forest Green.  It's 1/4/20 in virtual time and we look pretty good for automatic promotion.  This was a good team at its core with (had been a good bet for promotion in real life though they have faltered) but a couple of key loan deals made them even better.  With the real game suspended, I should be able to catch up to real time.

As for BFS, we'll play it by ear.  Maybe I'll tackle some of those research projects I've threatened to do - like the Five Minute Rule.

Stay healthy.

Down Is Up and Up Is Down

Can I get a collective WTF from the group?  And I don't necessarily mean because so many results went "the wrong way" this week, though that was definitely the case.  No, I'm just saying that form took a beating. Top 10 sides dropped 10 points to bottom half teams, Liverpool lost twice, Norwich won twice.  You get the picture.


Stalemate

Emphasis on stale.  I have no idea why the announcers thought this particular version of Newcastle - Burnley was likely to feature a lot of scoring.  The Magpies had scored 12 and allowed just 12 at home going into the match.  Burnley had just 14 road goals.  None of those numbers changed as the two sides played to an utterly predictable 0-0 draw.  538 says Newcastle had the better chances but the result looked fair to me.  And not awful either.  Burnley are good side.  The lack of scoring is troubling though, as Newcastle completed their sixth hour of EPL competition without a goal.  And with results elsewhere, their odds of relegation actually increased despite getting the point.


Little Help Elsewhere

Grainy picture but while it clearly touched the Hand (arm) of
Godfrey, hardly convincing evidence it touched Iheanacho's hand 

Dennis and I could only view the out-of-town scoreboard with dismay.  His Villa side were in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday so could do nothing themselves about their EPL position.  By the end of the weekend results elsewhere had left them worse off.  Their relegation odds went from 54% to 62%.  Newcastle's rose from 13% to 16%.

Things went downhill early, starting with Leicester's 0-1 loss to Norwich on Friday.  That one featured a questionable VAR decision to take away Iheanacho's goal for handling in the build-up.  On replay I didn't see clear evidence that the ball had touched Iheanhacho's arm; in fact it looked like it was the Hand of Godfrey, not Iheanacho.  Though Leicester maybe had the better of play, it wasn't by much and the result didn't seem undeserved.  The Foxes clearly felt the absence of Jamie Vardy, something they have to get used to given his "advanced" age (33).

Saturday was just as unhelpful.  Other than Crystal Palace's narrow 1-0 defeat of Brighton, nothing seemed to go our way.  West Ham's 3-1 thumping of Southampton was the least surprising.  Chelsea needed an 85th minute goal from Marcos Alonso (his second of the match) to slink away from Bournemouth with a 2-2 draw.  Then we watched Liverpool lose 0-3 to Watford, thus ending their 44-game unbeaten streak and 18-game winning streak.  But Watford lose Deulofeu for the rest of the season so that may be the definition of a pyrrhic victory.

Sunday's matches were also crazy and confounding.  We went with Spurs-Wolves and were treated to one of the better matches of the year, though not so much if you're a Tottenham fan.  Twice, Spurs failed to hold the lead and eventually were done in by Raul Jiminez.  The 3-2 win was a big boost for Wolves' Champions League hopes.  For Spurs, will they rue weekends like this when most of the key competitors were dropping points and they failed to take advantage?

I did get to fast forward through the Everton - Man United match to catch the flavor of that one.  Check out this howler from David De Gea in the third minute.  Might have been the week's YouTubeableMoment but for events later in the match.  United leveled things on a less than stellar attempted save from Jordan Pickford.  The match was full of the snarl you might expect from two sides believing that a Champions League spot is up for grabs and it went into stoppage time 1-1.  Calvert-Lewin appeared to have won the match for Everton with a deflected shot but the goal was eventually ruled out for offside.  You can see the play here, in this week's YouTubeableMoment (hopefully opens to the correct time but it's at 10:14 if it doesn't).  Clearly, Sigurdsson is half-prone on the pitch between De Gea and the ball when the shot is taken.  However, is he obstructing De Gea's vision?  The United keeper seems to have no trouble reacting, in the correct direction, to the shot.  The deflection off Maguire changes the path but there is no way De Gea is going to get there.  If you magically take Sigurdsson out of the play, does anything transpire differently?  If you answer no, Sigurdsson is not affecting the play and shouldn't be ruled offside.  Graham and I concluded this was a "safe but ultimately incorrect" call.  The official explanation from the EPL:

"The on-field decision was to award the goal, but the VAR advised the referee that Sigurdsson was in an offside position directly in the line of vision of David de Gea and made an obvious action that impacted de Gea’s ability to make a save."

I'm okay with the first part of that but not convinced about the impact on the ability to make the save. And check out why Sigurdsson was on the deck in the first place; was he fouled coming through the box?  Just askin'. We're told VAR checked that too and it wasn't a clear and obvious error.

When the dust settled, Aston Villa were back in the relegation zone along with Norwich and Bournemouth.  Man United had the 4th CL spot but only on goal differential over Wolves.  I guess (hope?) we can expect the intensity we saw in most matches this weekend to continue with so much to play for.


Carabao Cup

Entertaining stuff for the least important cup of the season.  Man City got on Aston Villa early with goals from Aguero and Rodri.  Villa narrowed things just before half with a tally from Mbwana "What's" Samatta.    They actually came close to leveling the match a few times in the second half.  Yes, they made a good impression.  But as Dennis noted 1) they still lost and 2) this was absolutely no help in the relegation fight.

We make fun of the Carabao Cup plenty but you can see here that UEFA would also like England to scrap the competition.  It's certainly a nuisance for the Premier League clubs and the financial rewards don't seem big enough to make it a winner for the other three divisions involved (Championship, League One and League Two).


FA Cup

[Ed note: BFS sincerely apologizes to readers for not alerting them to last week's FA Cup matches.  Heads will roll, unless we determine it was Obama's fault.]

 Almirón scores his second goal at The Hawthorns
 Photograph: Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images

Clearly, in his pep talks, Steve Bruce needs to convince the Newcastle players that the pending fixture is an FA Cup match.  Can't score in EPL but the offense blossoms in FA Cup action.  Last time out they got three against Oxford.  Tuesday they had three on West Brom by 47 minutes.  Just as clearly however, he needs to remind them that matches are 90 minutes plus stoppage time.  Against Oxford they allowed goals in the 84th and 94th minute.  This time they surrendered goals in the 74th and 93rd minute.  In the end though, a second straight 3-2 FA Cup win.  The offense looked superb, with Almiron (2 goals) and Saint Maximin consistently dangerous.

Other sides were not so fortunate.  Take Tottenham for example.  They were unable to build on a 1-0 lead against Norwich, gave up the equalizer late and eventually lost on PKs.  Liverpool experienced their second loss in four days, falling to Chelsea 0-2.  Not necessarily a shocker but the Liverpool train has at least been temporarily derailed.  Other top sides are advancing as Arsenal survived Portsmouth 2-0, Sheffield United bested Reading 2-1, Leicester got past Birmingham 1-0, Man City beat Sheffield Wednesday Wednesday 1-0 and Man United handled a determined Leeds Thursday 3-0.

The quarterfinal draw was not kind to Newcastle but realistically, there was little chance it would be given the field.  Six of the finalists are ahead of them in the table and they couldn't beat the one side who isn't - Norwich - in two attempts this year.  So while Man City will be tough, none of the others would be a picnic either.  Here are the match ups:

Sheffield United - Arsenal
Norwich - Man United
Leicester - Chelsea
Newcastle - Man City

They don't go to Wembley until the semis, so this will be a home match for Newcastle, not that it will matter all that much.  Matches are March 21, all at 11 am (why all the same time?).


Union in Last

I was disappointed to see the starting XI for the U vs Dallas.  No Wagner (injured), no Oravec (not ready yet) and no Elliott (visa problems - Excuse me but who is responsible for this aspect of player management? The same thing happened last year with Burke).  Their replacements (Real, Creavalle and Glesnes) were not awful but it wasn't the side we were expecting.

Not a scintillating contest.  Even Jeff H and I - two of the MLS's staunchest defenders (pundits, not players) - agreed that this was pretty tepid stuff compared to, say, Everton - Man United or Spurs - Wolves.  "Chippy and goalless" was how the MLS website described the first half.  Dallas did break through in the 61st minute and added a second in stoppage time.  Didn't feel like an 0-2 loss.  Both 538 and Opta say expected goals were basically even, supporting my contention that the final scored flattered Dallas.  Some good work from Blake though maybe a little soft on the first goal?  Some scoring chances from shuhBILLkoh and Aaronson that weren't converted.  Without Picault, we did look slow out there.  Looks like another "period of adjustment."


Can I Open My Eyes Now?

I dunno, things still look pretty scary.  Newcastle heading to St. Mary's to take on Southampton?  That doesn't sound promising even though the Saints are the worst home team in the league.  Aston Villa on the road to Leicester a week after the Foxes were embarrassed by Norwich?  538 has that one at 65% win for Leicester, 20% chance of a draw.  Newcastle are Saturday at 10 am on NBC Gold while Villa are Monday at 4 pm on NBCSN.  That strange sounding start time for Villa is a reminder that we "spring forward" on Sunday morning while the English wait until later in the month.

Tottenham with a road match at Turf Moor vs Burnley?  Doesn't sound like a fixture designed to cure whatever ails Spurs right now.  That's the Saturday 12:30 feature match, which once again is bumped from NBC to NBCSN.  What is it this time?  Gymnastics, then golf?  Walking a fine line there guys.

For us scoreboard watchers (relegation division),  all four of the critical matches are set for 10 am Saturday.  TV has Wolves - Brighton (CNBC) or Arsenal - West Ham (NBCSN).  Streamers on NBCGold can see Crystal Palace - Watford and Sheffield United - Norwich.  We'll be looking for the favored teams to take care of business

Ironically (coincidentally?) the fixture list is the same for scoreboard watchers (champions league contenders division).  Don't laugh that Arsenal are in that group.  They are five points out of the running with a game in hand; that the game in hand is against Man City only slightly weakens my point.  I'll be occupied with Newcastle but if I wasn't, I'd go with Palace - Watford. 

Two solid contests Sunday (note the later starting times).  At 10 Chelsea host Everton.  The Blues have by no means locked up a Champions League spot and Everton are like Arsenal (except no game in hand).  538 doesn't see this as all that close but the Toffees have experienced an "Italian renaissance" (forgot which announcer said that) under Carlo Ancelotti.  He will be on the bench for that one, having avoided a suspension despite being red carded for post-game protestation of that offside call in the Man United match.  The afternoon match (12:30) is a Manchester Derby at Old Trafford; again, 538 sees City has the big favorite but this one could still be fun.

If you're still good to go later on Sunday, you can see the Union take on LAFC (10:30 pm on PHL17).  Seriously low expectations for this one.  Like just keep the goal differential down.

Plenty of weekday stuff to take in.  Besides Leicester - Aston Villa on Monday, there's Man City - Arsenal on Wednesday at 3:30 (NBCSN); matches like this might put a crimp in the Gunners' push for the Champions League.

Speaking of Champions League, there are four second leg matches on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tuesday has RB Leipzig against Spurs (4 pm TNT).  The German side go in with a 1-0 lead and are clear favorites to advance playing at home.  However, 1-0 is hardly an airtight lead.  Wednesday looks even better with Liverpool hosting Atletico Madrid (also 4 pm TNT).  Though down 0-1 after the first leg, Liverpool are favored at home.  Still, they will need more than one goal to advance and can't afford to surrender an away goal to AM.  If you dvr, don't forget to extend recording by 60-90 minutes as they will go to extra time and PKs if necessary.  Wednesday has another cracker - PSG hosting Dortmund but I think you have to stream that one.  Pretty much the same situation as Liverpool - AM; the home team (PSG) comes in down a goal but are favored to win the second leg; they do have the advantage of an away goal so a 1-0 win would be enough.  The fourth match in this set is Valencia - Atalanta with the latter up 4-1 after the first leg. Even on the road, they are favored to win and advance.

So with without much work, you should be able to catch nine matches this week.  Unless of course you have a life outside of watching soccer.