Cups Running Over

Pretty satisfying few days even without league action.


More FA Cup Do Overs

Seven EPL sides are on to the 5th round and three more went crashing out over the weekend.  And four others got the most wonderful of presents, a midweek FA Cup replay.  All the scores are here. 

Prenton Park - Like the Water Tower, just more spectators

Notable memories from the weekend include watching Man United play at Tranmere on a pitch (see left) that had clearly hosted a tractor pull the night before.  Didn't seem to bother the Red Devils as they marched to a 6-0 win.  Newcastle - Oxford was a 0-0 snooze-fest, which is a big problem because 1) Oxford are a League One side (3rd division) and 2) the match was at home.  Frankly, I was half hoping Oxford would score in the closing minutes so we wouldn't have to do a road replay next week.  Possibly a great way to stifle the Magpies is to let them have possession; they seem less dangerous when they have the ball.  The thing is, should Newcastle get a win in the replay, their 5th round opponent is West Brom, meaning they have a plausible path to the FA Cup quarter finals.  Wait, who am I kidding?  This is Newcastle and the FA Cup.  Get real.

I didn't see the Southampton - Spurs 1-1 draw but at least the replay is back in London for Spurs.  Clearly the shock of the weekend was mega-minnow Shrewsbury scoring in the 65th and 75th minutes to rally from an 0-2 deficit to draw with Liverpool.  So get this.  Liverpool have not surrendered a lead to any EPL team this year and have won 23 and drawn once in 24 EPL matches but here's mighty Shrewsbury accomplishing both.  Granted the Liverpool line-up was dotted with second string.  The replay will be back an Anfield.

Except Klopp has already said he's playing the U23 team in that one.  Basically the issue stems from what the EPL is calling a "mid-season player break."  The intent was to make sure that every club had a weekend off in February, which offered somewhere between 13 and 16 days off depending on your exact schedule.  As explained in this article, the Shrewsbury replay falls inside Liverpool's two week break, leaving them with just 10 days off.  Klopp has said he planned the season with that break and obviously feels he has bigger fish to fry than the FA Cup.  Note that Spurs, Southampton and Newcastle also get a shorter break because of these replays.

Always something with the FA Cup.


Suddenly We Carabao It Cup

Two solid semi final second legs.  To the extent that anything involving the Carabao Cup can be considered a classic, the Aston Villa - Leicester match would qualify.  Recall that was 1-1 heading into the second leg.  Both sides, but mostly Leicester created opportunities early.  Somewhat against the run of play, Villa's Matt Targett scored in the 12th minute.  Just great end-to-end stuff throughout so it wasn't surprising when Leicester leveled things in the 72nd minute.  The Foxes looked the likelier side to find a game winner to save the contest from a dreaded PK shootout.  But it was Aston Villa in the 93 minute on a cross from Ahmed "Tickle Me" Elmohamady to Mahmoud Hassan who took the honors.  Nice goal, deserving of this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Though we continuously make fun of the competition, the Villa fans seemed energized enough by the win, storming the field at the final whistle.

I didn't see the other semi - a Manchester derby -  but Dennis tells me "surprisingly watchable."  Trailing 1-3 after the first leg, Nemanja "Auto" Matic got one back for United in the 35th minute.  The comeback would sputter out though, party because Matic picked up a second yellow in the 76th minute; that left the Red Devils a little short of the needed attacking power to level the match. 

So Man City will face Aston Villa on Sunday March 1 at Wembley. 


Newcastle Get Their Men

This would be one of the more productive transfer windows in recent memory for the Magpies.  Granted, it looks like a Tottenham close-out sale but I think it works for us.  First we got defensive midfielder Nabil Bentaleb from Schalke on loan; you might remember him from his days with Spurs.  Then we got left fullback Danny Rose on loan from Tottenham.  He fills a huge gap created by the losses to injuries of Paul Dummett and Jetro Willems.  We also added Valentino Lazaro from Inter Milan to help out at right wing/midfielder.  All make enormous sense and strengthen the squad.

Biggest news league wide I guess would be Bruno Fernandes going from Sporting Lisbon to Manchester United.  He'll be a force in the midfield as both a goal scorer and a playmaker. 

Aston Villa made some moves earlier in the month, adding Danny Drinkwater (who has frankly looked awful in his appearances so far) and veteran keeper Pepe Reina.  This week they picked up striker Samatta from the Belgian side Genk.  Dennis wasn't overwhelmed by the latter but his ratings in Football Manager aren't bad.


Critical Matches

Sure that Cup stuff was fun but this weekend it's back to the real prizes - not getting relegated and chasing a Champions League spot.  I'll be at my referee recertification clinic until 12 so gonna be on major delay this weekend.

Things get going right away with a 7:30 Leicester - Chelsea match up.  The Foxes look pretty solid for a Champions League spot but Chelsea have work to do, holding a six point lead over a chase pack that includes Man United, Wolves and Spurs. A full slate of six matches at 10.  Dennis and I will be turning to NBC Gold for a critical relegation showdown between Bournemouth and Aston Villa, following it up with Newcastle-Norwich.  This could be a season defining moment for the Villans, as you can't find a lot of points elsewhere in their schedule.  Newcastle still need some points to end the relegation threat and Norwich at St. James' Park sure looks like a good place to start.  A third relegation-relevant contest at 10 am is West Ham - Brighton.  The NBCSN 10 am match is Liverpool - Southampton.

The NBC feature match at 12:30 is a dandy between Man United and Wolves - two the sides vying for that fourth Champions League spot.

Sunday's 9 am match on NBCSN is Burnley - Arsenal; I'm stunned to see that 538 has Burnley as a slight, very slight favorite here.  But then I see the two are actually tied on points, with Arsenal having a slightly better goal differential.  Arsenal were surprisingly quiet in this transfer window too.  The 11:30 match has Tottenham hosting Man City; this is not likely to be a match for Spurs to make up ground.  I think Michael will be rooting for Leicester to beat Chelsea so they don't lose any more ground. 

Don't forget the FA Cup replays on Tuesday and Wednesday, if you have ESPN+.

Hollywood Scripts

An incredible six days of football.  Couldn't have written crazier story lines for Newcastle's two matches.  But there was plenty of other good stuff spread across week.

We'll start with Matchweek 23, which overall was a gas with every contest compelling in its own way.  Come from behind wins, multiple lead changes, results hanging in the balance to the final whistle.  Good enough that each deserves a second look, like an Academy Award nominated film.

It's A Wonderful Day in the Neighborhood - Oh to be Tyneside after Hayden's last minute goal for Newcastle's 1-0 win over Chelsea (more below).

The Grealishman - Aston Villa grab 1-1 draw thanks to Jack Grealish - the man they rely on when there's trouble.

Blades Out - Probably seems like a comedic farce to Arsenal but a late goal from Sheffield United means they only get one point at home.

Managers' Story - David Moyes (West Ham) and Carlo Ancelotti (Everton) deal with life in the EPL as new bosses of franchises that have seen better days; Moyes was probably happier than Ancelotti with the 1-1 draw as Everton head to that netherworld of being safe from relegation but pretty much eliminated from Europe Cups.

The Absence of Kyle Walker - Man City may have wondered if they would have been better off with Kyle Walker in the line up; down 0-1 for most of the day they tallied twice late and appeared to have all three in the bag until an own goal from Fernandinho finished the 2-2 classic.

19-17 - Okay, there weren't quite that many goals but it was a wild day in Southampton.  Wolves spotted the Saints two first half goals but got three of their own in the second half to take a 3-2 win.  Note that we did offer this as the match of the week for neutrals.  Blind squirrel and all that I guess.

Harry - Spurs continue to struggle without their leader Harry Kane and played Watford to a 0-0 draw.

The One Pope - Burnley can thank keeper Nick Pope for their 2-1 comeback win over Leicester.  He had seven saves, none more critical than denying Jamie Vardy's PK.

Les Miserables - This is how bad things are for Bournemouth.  Their fate was sealed when Steve Cook made a diving, fingertip save to deny a certain goal.  See the problem is that Cook is not a goalkeeper.  So he goes off with a red card for DOGSO and Teemu "You Can't Spell" Pukki "Without PK" converts the spot kick.  Down a man and down a goal.  Norwich had a man sent off at 76 minutes but that was not enough time for the Cherries to rescue a result.

Once Upon a Time...in Liverpool - Their magical season continues with a 2-0 win over Man United.  The Reds did dominate for much of the match but didn't put the match away until stoppage time.  According to 538, Liverpool's chances of winning the EPL are now greater than 99%.  Probably higher than that but you know those stat guys always leave a little room.

Dennis reacts to Newcastle stealing points again

I started the Newcastle match with low expectations - minimal damage to the goal differential and no injuries.  Even that low bar was in jeopardy after Jetro Willems blew out his knee early.  Credit to the lads, especially the back line, for some excellent defending.  So we entered stoppage time 0-0.  With a draw in sight, I had to remind myself of initial expectations lest I get too excited.  The next thing I know, Newcastle are taking a corner kick in the final seconds - a draw is in the bag.  Turns out more than that.  The corner went into the box but was quickly headed back out to Saint-Maximin;  he sent a good cross back into the box, which Isaac Hayden deposited in the goal.  An easier pick for a YouTubeableMoment there's never been.  Actually, that's not completely true - it was hard to pick from all the fan videos showing the fan reaction at Saint James' Park.  So there it was - more stolen points and the Magpies chances of relegation fall from 20% to 10%.  Sweet.


Let's Do That Again

LeJeune may have to teach this technique to Newcastle strikers

So after that full weekend, there's no way the weekday matches would measure up right?  Wrong.  There was still plenty to go.  And top of the list again was Newcastle.  Away to Everton, the Magpies performed like they were playing with house money after stealing the win over Chelsea.  I know I was feeling that way.  Thinking we'd get at most one point from the two matches, it was hard to get too worked up with three already in the bank.  A nice pass from Bernando set up one and an ill-advised interception attempt from Lascelles opened the door for a second.  We even saw Newcastle, down 0-2, move to a prevent defense, taking off Joelinton (ineffective again, damn) for defender Fabian Schar.  All of which made the ending more improbable.  Florian LeJeune put in a goal in the 94th minute which looked like it would be nothing more than an amusing footnote.  Amusing because LeJeune is a center defender and he scored with a bicycle kick (see picture) plus it wasn't going to change the result.  When he scored another a minute later, no one was laughing.  Well, certainly not Evertonians.  The rest of us could merely shake our heads.  LeJeune is now equal second leading scoring and his brace means that 12 of Newcastle's 24 goals have been scored by defenders.

The Grealishman celebrates Villa's game winner

While Newcastle were taking on Everton, Aston Villa were facing Watford in what was pretty close to a must-win contest.  To add to the day's weirdness, as Newcastle were staging their ludicrous comeback, Aston Villa were completing their own improbable ending.  The texts show the timing:

4:23 Steve:  Unf***ing believable.  It's 2-2.
4:24 Dennis: I really hate you.
4:24 Dennis: Never mind!!!!!! 2-1 baby.

On basically the last kick of the game, Tyrone Mings lifted the Villans out of the relegation zone.  Though not confident, Dennis now feels there's at least some hope they won't be heading back to the Championship division.

Running out of steam here but there were several other highly watchable contests midweek.  Chelsea - Arsenal was a classic, though definitely more so for Gunners fans.  David Luiz got a red card for DOGSO at 26 minutes so Arsenal were down a goal and down a man.  Martinelli surprisingly got one back and Arsenal had hopes for a draw until Assculpetal Apsequelta Dave put Chelsea back up again at 84 minutes.  Surely that was the game winner.  No, and stop calling me Shirley.   Hector Bellerin got himself free at the top of the box (you never score from there) and rescued a point for Arsenal.  Up a man and Chelsea twice give up the lead.  Ouch.

On Wednesday Spurs struggled - at home - against Norwich but got their 2-1 win.  It shouldn't be this hard for Tottenham.  On Thursday, Wolves took Liverpool to the limit but came away with nothing after a late goal by Firmino.  Great second half of action. 

Heading into the FA Cup break some things are clear.  Up 16 points with a game in hand (against West Ham), Liverpool are basically champions-elect.  Man City look pretty safe for top three and Leicester are getting close.  Chelsea are just six up on the chase pack for the fourth spot but 538 says they are good bets to fend off Tottenham, Man United and Wolves.  At the other end, Norwich are close to wrapping up relegation.  But the other two spots are up for grabs so to speak between Bournemouth, Aston Villa, West Ham, Watford and Brighton.  Newcastle are close to safety but not over the line yet.  It does appear that the points required to avoid relegation may be on the high side this year - in the high 30s.  I argue that this is a function of the relative mediocrity of places 4-8 at the upper end of the table.  Those sides have been giving up points to the bottom of the table at a higher than normal rate.  Thanks guys.


Sometimes Autocorrect Is Correct

While texting Dennis, autocorrect revised Virgil van Dijk to Virgil Can Dunk.  Dennis said there was nothing wrong with the correction.  His girlfriend Brenna went a step further, asking do we know for certain that van Dijk is not Dutch for can dunk?


Other Stuff

We're in one of those times when you there was/is football on every day but one between Saturday and following Wednesday. EPL took care of us Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.   FA Cup takes over Friday to Monday.  That schedule is here.  Unfortunately you'll need ESPN+ to catch any of those matches.  Selected games of note include Newcastle-Oxford (10 am Saturday), Southampton-Spurs (10 am Saturday), Tranmere-Man United (Sunday 10 am), Shrewsbury-Liverpool (Sunday at 12) and Bournemouth-Arsenal (Monday at 3 pm).  We didn't mention Aston Villa because they are already out and Dennis loves it.

But Villa do have to play the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi against Leicester on Tuesday.  That one is knotted at 1-1 so all to play for there.  Wednesday is the other semi, with Man City bringing a 3-1 lead home against Man United. 

Yeah, we make fun of both competitions but you know we'll be watching.

This and That

Decidedly mixed results for teams of interest to the blog.  Everything from blow-out wins to draws good and bad to close losses to blow-out losses.

Newcastle started well, attacking from the get-go so the early goal from Almiron was not undeserved.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; the finishing was excellent but don't miss the first pass from Willems and the deft touch from Gayle to put it on Almiron's foot.  Things pretty much went downhill from there.  Wolves took just seven minutes to equalize on a corner.  Paul Dummett returning from a groin injury had already been substituted with a hamstring injury to the other leg.  Symmetrically, Gayle, returning from a hamstring problem, had to go off at 28 minutes with a groin injury.  This is not what I meant by turning the injury situation around.  Joelinton was hurting the whole time but held on until 79 minutes. More on injuries below.

The second half was not pretty.  The two sides racked up 25 fouls between them (12 for Magpies, 13 for Wolves) and Newcastle accumulated three yellow cards in the final 25 minutes.  Announcer Gary Taphouse called it a "scrappy stalemate."  And you know what?   That worked just fine for me because the last thing Newcastle needed was to get into a track meet with Wolves.  Adama Traore is one of my favorite players but not so much when he is running at a depleted Newcastle back line.  The 1-1 final looks like another stolen point which we will gladly accept.

And about those injuries.  There was some discussion about whether this happened to the Magpies under Benitez.  Enough so that The Chronicle commissioned PremierInjuries.com to dig into their data base to compare Newcastle 19/20 to the previous two years.  The article is here and the website is here.  The number of injuries is basically unchanged over the three-year period.  Looking at the 19/20 and 18/19 numbers, I'm struck that there are seven players who show up in both years and eight that show up multiple times in a year.  Maybe this has more to do with the specific players than the training regimen and/or playing time.  I really like what both Shelvey and Dummett bring to the team but they have had five and four injuries respectively over the past two years. 


There Are No Points For A Moral Victory 

Dennis watching the Man City Aston Villa match

Tottenham played Liverpool as well as anybody has this year and got the same number of points - zero - as everybody else (except Man United) who's played them this year.  The Aston Villa experience against Man City was as bad as we feared it would be; the 1-6 final is very representative of the match I saw.  Arsenal could  manage only 1-1 draw with Palace.  Based on highlights I saw, best viewing of the weekend  was Leicester - Southampton. Danny Ings snatched the 2-1 win for the Saints with a late goal.  The Foxes had several off the woodwork and a tying goal in the dying moments was ruled out for offside.  Southampton's transformation is just about complete now as 538 has them with just a  3% chance of relegation.  Everton's turnaround is even more thorough.  After a 1-0 defeat of Brighton, the Toffee's chances of relegation dropped to less than 1%, which we note is lower than Arsenal's slim but registrable 1%.  Man United did get healthy against Norwich, recording an easy 4-0 win.  Chelsea's 3-0 win over Burnley keeps them well in command of the fourth Champions League spot.


Great Peril

BFS Goalie Consultant Graham points out that after losing to 0-3 to - at home - to Watford, Eddie Howe is facing great peril.  Here we see Bournemouth fans pointing that out to him.  Seriously, Howe now has the "best" odds of being the next manager to be sacked.  At 7+ years he's the longest serving manager right now.  Certainly he must have done something right to get Bournemouth into the top flight and keep them there for four years so far.  Maybe they got a little stale after a series of solid mid table finishes.


VAR Accidental Handball Fainting Couch

I will agree that VAR has probably been overused to make hair-splitting offside calls.  But IMHO the bigger rule change travesty this year has been the inadvertent handball calls to rule out goals.  And once again, most of the anger is misplaced.  It's not the VAR, it's that intent has been taken out of the equation if there is handling in the scoring or creation of a goal.

Case in point is last Friday's Sheffield United - West Ham match (a great watch by the way).  Sheffield United were up 1-0 when West Ham scored in stoppage time.  You can see the play here (should open to the incident).  Two things about Rice's "handling" of the ball.  First, it was not an offense until the goal was scored so there was no reason for Oliver to blow the whistle at that point. Second, in any other circumstance, there is no offense; it's simply an accidental touching of the ball that is not supposed to be whistled.  The purists have been yakking about how VAR is an affront when it was the purists who pushed for this stupid rule change because somehow it was unseemly to have a goal scored under this circumstance.  Keep VAR but chuck this rule.

Fun side note from the incident, as Dennis learns life as a fan of a relegation-threatened side:

West Ham scores - I get excited cause it was a cool moment.  Then I realize I don't want West Ham getting any points and literally say " I hope some VAR nonsense brings this back."

He subsequently clarified that he agreed that this was a problem with the handling rule, not VAR.


If At First You Don't Succeed

There's always the FA Cup replay.  Newcastle passed their test with a 4-1 win over Rochdale.  So what if the goals were mostly ugly, at least it was an easy win.  Spurs, again shunning the easy road, jumped out to quick 2-0 lead on Middlesbrough but never put the Championship division side away.  So things were tight at the end when Middlesbrough broke through at 83 minutes.  Man United and Wolves played again and despite great end-to-end stuff could only conjure up a 1-0 for the Red Devils. 

The schedule for the next round, with games to be contested the weekend (four-day) of 1/24-1/27, can be found here.  Wait a second.  The Watford - Tranmere replay is next Thursday?  So here's the Hornets schedule:

1/18 vs Spurs (H)
1/21 vs Aston Villa (A)
1/23 vs Tranmere (A)
1/26 vs Man United (if they beat Tranmere) (H)

That seems brutal.  Certainly those in the relegation fight with Watford don't mind.



Union Splash Some Cash

A collective sigh of relief that Monteiro
will be back in the midfield
MORGAN TENCZA / PHILADELPHIA UNION

Very welcome news that the Union agreed to a $2m transfer fee to make Jamiro Monteiro's move to Philadelphia permanent.  As discussed here, this was another fine piece of work by Sporting Director Ernst Tanner.  For some time it wasn't clear that 1) the Union would be willing to spend the money, 2) that FC Metz had a reasonable number in mind and - most importantly - 3) did Monteiro really want to stay.  Though the player rankings at WhoScored and the Audi Player Index listed CATS-purr shuh-BILL-koh higher, Monteiro was no slouch at 13th in the WhoScored rankings and 35th in the Audi Player Index.  Unofficial polling data of the Northwest Philly Union Season Ticket Holders (Steve, Graham, Jeff H, and Jeff K) actually had Monteiro as the team's most valuable player.  So instead of spending the rest of the off/pre season filling a hole in the midfield, like we have in successive seasons, Tanner can focus on building on last year's successful season.


Two Fer Schedule

We get a double dose of EPL this week with Match Week 23 covering Saturday and Sunday and Match Week 24 spread over Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  And if we are to believe the 538 predictions, there's a bunch of tight contests, especially on the weekend.  Over the 20 fixtures, I count seven for which the win percentage difference is 10 or less.

Unfortunately Newcastle's fixture is not one of those.  The Magpies are the feature match Saturday at 12:30 on NBC as they take on Chelsea at St. James' Park.  Chelsea have of late been staking a claim to the 4th Champions League spot so we'll be more than thrilled if Newcastle can scrape out a point here.

Saturday starts bright and early (7:30 on NBCSN) with Watford-Tottenham.  Scarily for Spurs, 538 has this at 34-41-25 - meaning Watford has 34% chance of winning, Spurs have 41% and a draw is at 25%.  I would guess this is dismaying to Michael B and other Spurs supporters but Watford are unbeaten in their last five and Spurs have looked less than solid.

The 10 am slot is crowded with six fixtures.  The TV game is Arsenal-Sheffield United which could be lively enough though the Gunners are solid favorites at home.  The choices on NBC Gold look more inviting.  How about Southampton - Wolves (38-35-27)?  That could be a good back-and-forth match.  That would be my recommendation for the neutral.  If you're into the relegation specials there's Norwich (20th in the table) - Bournemouth (19th); that's listed 37-36-27).  West Ham hosting Everton is also tight at 36-38-26.  Though I might prefer the Southampton - Wolves contest, I'll likely be taking in the relegation-relevant battle between Brighton and Aston Villa, if only as moral support for Dennis and the Villans.

Sunday's matches are Burnley - Leicester at 9 am and Liverpool - Man United at 11:30.  Will probably check in on the latter though we doubt the Red Devils have an answer for Liverpool's strength.

The mid-week calendar isn't quite as tasty but some stuff is worth checking out.   TV viewers will be limited to Chelsea - Arsenal at 3:15 on Tuesday, Man United - Burnley at 3:15 on Wednesday and Wolves - Liverpool at 3 pm on Thursday; all those are on NBCSN.  Despite its pedigree, the Gunners will have to step up their game if they want to make that London derby interesting.  Tuesday we'll be stuck watching Newcastle deal with Everton at Goodison Park on NBC Gold and once again a draw is about as good as we can imagine there.  Some relegation specials on Tuesday as well, with Bournemouth - Brighton and Aston Villa - Watford.  Spurs might have a bit of break taking on Norwich at home on Wednesday.

With winter looking to settle in for a week or so, this packed fixture list is more than welcome.

Replays, Minnows and Replays with Minnows

What a draw to a lower tier side in the FA Cup
feels like

The first weekend of EPL involvement in the FA Cup provided all the usual highlights.  There were some blowouts, some surprising upsets of EPL sides by minnows and the requisite number of annoying draws with minnows that will require intrusive mid-week replays in the middle of congested league schedules. 

Newcastle got an early lead thanks to a goal from Almiron but never really asserted themselves against Rochdale and the 79th minute equalizer was no surprise.  Another really poor outing from Joelinton.  Some solace in that it looks like Matt Ritchie is ready to play.

Dennis could barely contain his delight that Aston Villa fell to Championship division Fulham.  For his money, if it doesn't involve points in the EPL standings, it is an unnecessary distraction. The Fulham goals were pretty good strikes.  Michael was more philosophical about Spurs draw to Championship division Middlesborough, especially after a near-viewing disaster in which ESPN+ claimed they didn't have a subscription listed under his email address.  He ended up missing just a few minutes.  Plus the replay will be at home.  Better than Watford's fate, a 3-3 draw to League 1 relegation candidate Tranmere at home no less, which means a road replay. 

Some claimed the 0-0 Wolves - Man United contest was a bore but I find it pretty good viewing; sure they couldn't finish for s....quat but it was good end-to-end football.  Ooh, United had no shots on target.  And for Jurgen Klopp this time the kids were more than alright.  Though criticized for starting youngsters against Everton, he got the last laugh as Liverpool came away with a 1-0 win.

The overall tally for the EPL was 11 wins, five draws and four losses.  Besides Villa and Everton, Brighton fell to Sheffield Wednesday and Crystal Palace went down to Derby County; both Championship division sides. 


Don't Carabao It Cup

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer after Rashford's goal closes the
deficit to 1-3

The first legs of the two semi-finals were contested on Tuesday and Wednesday.  In an extra Manchester derby, City had the upper hand, jumping out to a 3-0 lead in the first half at Old Trafford.  A late goal from Marcus Rashford may have given United some life but heading to The Etihad down 1-3 doesn't seem like a winning strategy.  In the Wednesday match, Aston Villa played Leicester to a 1-1 draw.  Dennis lamented that they did so by playing much of the first team in a "meaningless" mid-week match.  He would gladly have traded this result for a point in any of the upcoming EPL matches.  Return matches are 1/28 and 1/29.



Department of Irony

Michael B's friend Simon (our tour guide in London) lives in Norwich and vacations in the Canary Islands.  Know that only readers of this blog will get the irony.


Get On With It



Yes, let's get back to the important stuff. 

The weekend starts a day early with Sheffield United - West Ham Friday afternoon at 3 pm.

Saturday's early match (7:30 NBCSN) looks worth getting up for - a London derby featuring Crystal Palace Arsenal at Selhurst Park.  Maybe a sign of the Gunners inconsistency that they are barely favored in the match.

The five matches at 10 am don't exactly get the blood flowing.  We'll be watching Newcastle vs Wolves at Molineux on Gold because we have to.  Very low expectations for that one, though somewhat buoyed by the possible return of some key players.  A draw would be awesome.  TV goes with Chelsea - Burnley.  If I wasn't otherwise occupied, I'd choose Everton - Brighton; both have done some good work recently to significantly reduce their relegation chances but remain in danger.  Man United can maybe keep pace in the race for 4th with a home match against bottom dweller Norwich.  Leicester - Southampton fills out the 10 am slot.

An important contest in the NBC feature match at 12:30 with Spurs hosting Liverpool.  Probably should put important in "".  Even at home, that looks like a tough assignment for Tottenham.

Sunday morning (9 am NBCSN) starts with a relegation special between Bournemouth and Watford.   These are two sides moving in different directions, with Watford finally lifting themselves out of the bottom and actually putting together a good streak and Bournemouth sliding down the table into the relegation zone.  The second match at 11:30 on NBCSN has all the appeal of a car crash; Aston Villa will likely struggle even at home against Man City.

Weekend temps in the 60s so maybe more DVR and less live action than recent weeks.

The Thirteen Days of Football

We hope you got to take in a game or 12 over the last few weeks.  We certainly did.  So how did your team fare in this congested period?  Once again we turn to the BFS exclusive holiday period rankings based on the following scale.

	You got a Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time - and you didn't even ask for one!
	It's A Wonderful Life
	Nice enough but how many times can you watch White Christmas?
	The Grinch stole your Christmas
	Only Hans Gruber had a worse Christmas than you

We have added a new feature this year - percentage of expected points collected.  We used the 538 predictions to get expected points.  For example, on New Year's Day, Burnley were given a 50% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 25% chance, with a 25% chance of a tie.  So Villa's expected points were .25*3 + .25*1 = 1.  It's a way of adjusting for the degree of difficulty given each team's schedule.  The table below shows both the percentage of total possible points and percentage of expected points for the matches between 12/21 and 1/2.

Points  % Available        % Expected Southampton 10 83% 235% Watford 10 83% 185% Wolverhampton 6 50% 154% Liverpool 9 100% 132% Everton 7 58% 129% Sheffield United 4 33% 128% Leicester City 6 50% 121% Aston Villa 6 50% 110% Arsenal 5 42% 104% Chelsea 7 58% 97% Crystal Palace 5 42% 96% Manchester City 9 75% 92% Manchester United 6 50% 89% Brighton and Hove Albion 4 33% 82% West Ham United 3 33% 80% Newcastle 3 25% 70% Burnley 3 25% 61% Tottenham Hotspur 4 33% 54% Norwich City 2 17% 46% AFC Bournemouth 1 8% 19%

Looking at sides of particular interest at BFS:

Newcastle   

Totally worth a yellow for removing the jersey
Photo: Richard Sellers/Getty

Yes, my expectations were low given the matches with Man United and Leicester but they probably should have been able squeeze a draw out of a home match with Everton.  The good news is that the three points they got in a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace came on Almiron's first goal as a Magpie. The timing couldn't have been better as Newcastle were looking at a draw - at best - until this bolt from the blue.  We'll make it one of this week's multiple YouTubeableMoments.  What I like about this video is you get a sense of how much the St. James' faithful really want this guy to succeed.  The silver lining about this streak is that hopefully Newcastle management are under no illusions about the quality of this team and will take steps accordingly.  I note with alarm that despite their 25 points, 538 still lists the Magpies with a 25% chance of relegation.  

Aston Villa 

Dennis might disagree given their schedule and how awful they looked but they actually did a little better than expected.  Probably doesn't feel so good because relegation rivals Southampton and Watford did have an awesome holiday period, partly at the Villans' expense.  No doubt they looked awful versus Southampton and Watford and frankly weren't that good even in victory over Norwich.  But the 2-1 win over Burnley at Turf Moor was like finding a wrapped present behind the Christmas tree after you thought you had opened everything.  Might have been a pyrrhic win given that forward Wesley and keeper Heaton were injured.  Another side that needs the January transfer window.

Tottenham  

I originally had two here but upon further review, this was a disastrous stretch for Spurs. The holidays included a big loss to Chelsea when fourth place was in view, a sloppy draw to Norwich and an even uglier loss to Southampton.  They did get three in a win over Brighton but the total haul for the four games just won't cut it for a team with Champions League ambitions.  Also, the Special One got a yellow on New Year's Day.  But he was "contrite" about it:   

“I think the yellow card was fair as I was rude, but I was rude with an idiot. But I clearly deserved the card I was rude.”

And Harry Kane got hurt as well.  Yeah, this was a one-Santa holiday.

Man United 

Jeff H abandoned their match against Arsenal to watch the dog show; that sums up the Red Devils holiday action pretty well.  So they beat Newcastle and Burnley but fell to Watford and Arsenal.  They looked very pedestrian against Arsenal, like they could have played for another 90 minutes but still might not have scored.

Arsenal 

Very mixed results for the Gunners and I'm slightly puzzled by their 104% score on just five points.    They were minutes away from a big win over Chelsea before losing 1-2 but they were underdogs in that one.  And draws with Everton and Bournemouth?  They were road games so expectations are lower.  Clearly the 2-0 win over Man United on New Year's Day rescued what would have been an awful holiday.

Other noteworthy performances

Southampton 

They got three wins and a draw, beating both Chelsea and Tottenham in the process.  They moved out the relegation zone all the way to 12th in the table.  Ralph Hasenhuttl, hanging on for dear life at one point, now slips way down in the managerial sack race.

Watford 

The Hornet's road might have been a touch easier but it included wins over Man United and Wolves.  That they still sit 19th in the table is testimony to how wretched their season had been to this point.

Wolves 

The value of risk adjusting the results becomes evident in evaluating Wolves results.  With just six points, including a road loss to Watford, we might otherwise conclude it was not a good holiday for a BFS favorite.  Closer inspection shows they did well given their fixture list.  Yes, they were expected to beat Norwich but they were only prohibitive favorites on the road for that one.  They were huge underdogs hosting Man City but took all three in a thrilling come-from-behind win.  They were huge underdogs at Enfield so the 0-1 loss was hardly unexpected.  And surprisingly, they were very slight underdogs on the road at Watford, meaning the 1-2 loss wasn't totally out of the blue. Same thing for Sheffield United - they did okay with a brutal schedule that also included Liverpool and Man City.

Bournemouth, with one point, clearly got a lump of coal in their stocking.


Random Takeaways

I took a few notes along the way and can look back on some texts, but with so many games, the whole thing becomes a blur.  I am left with random thoughts.

Best game of the holidays - Wolves come back from 0-2 to beat Man City. Rather than a single moment, check out the highlights here. City go down a man, get a goal after Patricio twice stops Sterling on a PK.  I think the link is from Wolves network so the excitement of the comeback is captured well.  Honorable mention to Arsenal - Chelsea.  I'm sure Gunners fans would just as soon forget this as Chelsea score twice in the final minutes to take a 2-1 win.

Watford survive being down a man for 33 minutes against Villa, scoring twice after the sending off and again for 19 minutes against Wolves, holding on for a 2-1 win.  As Dennis says, a goal on the scoreboard is definitely worth more than a man advantage.

There was a spate of offside calls in which the attacker was off by no more than a millimeter.  Dennis and I offer two options to address this.  Dennis says don't allow the VAR to use those lines.  If it's not obvious without the lines, than it can't be an egregious error.  My suggestion is that they use the lines but thicken them by a percent or so; if the two lines overlap, than the margin of error is too small to overturn the call on the field.  Or as we say in the trade, there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

If offside is based on the position of body parts that can score a goal, then I could never be flagged for offside, because there's no way I could score a goal with any body part.

Leicester kinda failed their big test, losing to both  Liverpool and Man City in consecutive matches. And yet, they still occupy second place and look better than any of Chelsea, Man United, Tottenham or Arsenal.

Brighton stole a point from Chelsea with Alireza Jahanbakhsh's amazing bicycle kick; check out the video here.

The opening game of the holiday period - an Everton-Arsenal 0-0 draw - was like opening the first present on Christmas morning to find out it was a pair of socks.

The New Year's Day fixture between Man City and Everton featured Pep Guardiola and Carlos Ancelotti managing against each other.

David Moyes was hired at West Ham and the side celebrated with a 4-0 thrashing of Bournemouth.

Speaking of Bournemouth, Eddie Howe - the longest tenured manager in the EPL - is now listed at 3/1 as the next manager to be sacked.  The Cherries have four points from their last 10 matches.


Christmas Presents

Scott, who gifted me Football Manager some Christmases ago, gave me "The Football Manager Guide to Football Management."  Key quote:

We are all football managers. It's just that some of us haven't been appointed yet.

Ellen and Anna gave me "Encyclopedia Blazertannica: A Suboptimal Guide to Soccer, America's Sport of the Future Since 1972."  In the first entry, the Men in Blazers pose this question:

"...why are so many English-accented broadcasters immediately afforded respect based solely on their accents?"

Are Your Streaming Services Up to Date?

After the glut of holiday games, we now face a virtual viewing blackout.  Unless you have ESPN+, you're out of luck for this weekend's FA Cup matches and the mid-week I Don't Carabao It Cup semi finals.

For the background on the FA Cup, we direct you to this old BFS post.  This weekend's schedule can be found here.  Newcastle are at Rochdale; injuries might make the decision for Steve Bruce as to how many regulars sit this one out.  Aston Villa are at Fulham, Spurs are at Middlesborough, Arsenal host Leeds and Man United play Wolves.  One of these is not like the others.  That is the "beauty" of the FA Cup - that you can get a difficult, Premier League-level match-up in the third round while others around you are playing League One or League Two opponents.  Also note there is a Merseyside derby as Liverpool and Everton face off.  Crazy.

Then we have the first leg of the Carabao Cup semis midweek.  First up is a Manchester derby on Tuesday with United hosting.  Wednesday is Leicester - Aston Villa.  Both are at 3 pm on ESPN+.  Don't miss these matches in what Men In Blazers call the Cuppity Cup Cup, in honor of how many different sponsors it has gone through in its short history.  They also suggest it it the "fifteenth or sixteenth most important trophy" in English football.

But, as the saying goes, everything looks like a meal to a starving man so we will take in more than our share of these matches, because that's all there is right now.