No moss growing under the soccer world's feet...
International Stuff
The USMNT did not have any trouble dispatching Canada and Cuba in the CONCACAF Nations Cup matches. As I understand it, there was really nothing of consequence - except the US reputation - on the line. The US only needed to finish second in their group to qualify for the 2021 Gold Cup but with these victories took first in the group. It was probably still good that they took care of business and they will face Honduras in the Nations League semi-final, with the winner to take on the winner of the other semi between Mexico and Costa Rica. Those matches will take place in June.
Slightly more serious stuff in Europe as group stage play concluded and more automatic berths were awarded for the 2020 Euro Championships. I saw Iceland come up short in a 0-0 draw against Turkey. For excitement, Czech Republic vs Kosovo was pretty good. Trailing 0-1 at 70 minutes, the Czech Republic were looking at third place and no automatic berth. Goals at 71 and 79 minutes rectified that and there was much rejoicing, at least for the Czechs. Portugal struggled a bit against Luxembourg on a pitch that would make a Philadelphia Public League groundskeeper blanch but got a 2-0 win and a berth.
Their neighbors across St. George's Channel - that would be Wales - had a better time of it on Tuesday They handled Hungary pretty well and earned their 2-0 win. Check out the first goal on a connection between Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey. The delivery and finish make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.
So twenty spots are set. They include:
Austria BelgiumAnother 16 countries have a second chance at the last four slots through a two-game playoff process in March. Final pairings for those:
Croatia Czech Republic
Denmark England
Finland France
Germany Italy
Netherlands Poland
Portugal Russia
Spain Sweden
Switzerland Turkey
Ukraine Wales
: Iceland v Romania, Bulgaria v Hungary*
: Bosnia and Herzegovina v Northern Ireland*, Slovakia v Republic of Ireland
: Scotland v Israel, Norway v Serbia*
: Georgia v Belarus*, North Macedonia v KosovoSo it's possible Ireland would meet Northern Ireland for one of the last spots. Also note that one of Georgia, Belarus, North Macedonia and Kosovo is going to get a spot. They are currently ranked 39, 37, 36, and 46 respectively in UEFA. I want one of them in my group when they get to drawing the groups for the final.
Pochettino Sacked
A surprise but not a surprise. They have been underperforming - aside from some good Champions League moments - for over a year now. But how much is on Pochettino? They are underspenders compared to the other Top Six. His replacement is The Special One, Jose Mourinho.
Dennis: He is the de facto manager for struggling teams that need a turnaroundSo Michael will hang in there.
Steve: Is de facto Latin for douche?
Michael B: COYS
Who's Been Lucky?
I did go back to complete the analysis that I mentioned a view weeks ago in the context of Sheffield United's fairy tale start to the season. Using data from 538, I recalculated results for each game based on expected goals (shot-based and nonshot). Games that were within .5 were classified as draws. The revised table looks like this:
Some comments. Biggest loser was Newcastle at -12; Watford was a +13 while Man City was +9. At just +2, Tottenham's situation doesn't look like the result of bad luck.
Manchester City 34 Liverpool 30 Chelsea 28 Manchester United 23 Everton 22 Leicester City 22 Watford 21 Arsenal 18 Brighton and Hove Albion 17 Burnley 17 Tottenham Hotspur 16 Crystal Palace 12 Southampton 12 Wolverhampton 12 AFC Bournemouth 11 Sheffield United 11 Aston Villa 10 West Ham United 10 Norwich City 5 Newcastle 3
The Newcastle number required game-by-game review but it stands up. All of their losses are deserved. They were outplayed by Tottenham but snuck away with a 1-0 win. The win over West Ham probably should have been a loss too. The wins over Man United and Bournemouth look more like draws. And the draws to Wolves and Brighton could easily have been losses. That's 12 points. It makes some sense - they have been lucky to this point. They've been living on header goals on set pieces from defenders. I haven't seen enough Watford games to comment on their +13 points from this approach.
I certainly don't present this as definitive statement as to what the table should look like. But if some of this is luck, presumably some of the variations could even out as the season goes on. And the study was "peer reviewed" by Dennis.
Union Redux
Several weeks removed from the season, let's take a look back at Union's performance in 2019 and personnel issues for 2020. Certainly the results easily justify the mantle of "best season" in the Union's history. We'll leave the issue of whether that's a low bar aside. They had their equal highest finish (third) and equal best goal differential (+8); that 2011 season was actually pretty good. This was the most points in franchise history (55) and most goals scored (58). And of course, there was the
Many, though not all, of Tanner's choices worked out well. Peter Andrews at the Philly Soccer Page did a nice summary of those moves, which include (brave for a pundit) his reaction at the time. Here is Part One and here is Part Two. The only outright bust was Wooten. Fabian was a disappointment but he had his moments; the problem is that his $ per moment was way too high. But shuhBILLkoh, Monteiro and Wagner were solid and Santos and Collin were helpful.
Looking at WhoScored Ratings provides some quantitative measure of performance to match against one's subjective views. Top five Union players were shuhBILLkoh, Monteiro, Medunjanin, Ilsinho, and Elliott. Missing from list for me is Wagner, though he wasn't that far behind Elliott in the ratings. I wouldn't have had Med in that list but he was important to the offense. A little surprised how far down the ratings I had to go to find Aaronson but he could disappear for stretches. He still rated higher than Blake. who had the lowest rating of any Union with regular playing time and next to last among all regular MLS keepers. Yikes, that used to be a position we didn't have to think about.
So where do we go from here? For better or worse, Aaronson, Bedoya, Blake, Elliott, Gaddis, shuhBILLkoh, Santos, Wagner and Wooten are back. Fabian and Medunjanin will not be offered contracts; I'm okay with that as Fabian was just too costly for what he provided and Medunjanin was just getting too old to handle the position. Center back Auston Trusty has been traded to Colorado. He had been a regular for much of the season but by the end of the year wasn't even a named substitute. Reports suggest there are some unspecified off-field issues. Presumably this means they will sign McKenzie. Whether Ilsinho and more importantly, Monteiro, return is also not settled. The bad news on Monteiro is that 1) he might not want to come back and 2) even if he does, the asking price of his parent club (FC Metz of France's Ligue 2) may be too high. If Trusty trade was an attempt to generate enough funds to satisfy Monteiro and FC Metz, I'm all for it. Losing a key player in the midfield - again - is not a helpful way to start the off-season. I would guess they will re-sign Ilsinho.
Probably need to shore up right back; Ray Gaddis had his moments but he also had his moments. Even before Trusty was traded I would have been looking for some help at center back. With Medunjanin, Fabian and possibly Monteiro gone, the midfield may occupy much Tanner's off-season attention. The good news is that Tanner's batting average is pretty good so there is some reason to believe that he can make the necessary changes.
BFS Derby!
This weekend marks the return of the BFS Founders Derby with Aston Villa hosting Newcastle at 3 pm on Monday (NBCSN). The two sides haven't squared off for two years since Newcastle were promoted in 2017. Both are usually mentioned in the list of relegation candidates. Early on this season, Aston Villa looked much better than the Magpies but fortunes have changed and Newcastle have four points on the Villans. FiveThirtyEight gives Villa a 47% chance of winning compared to Newcastle's 26%. I'll be heading up to Allentown to watch with Dennis. Prince William, another noted Aston Villa fan, has not responded to the invitation to join us.
Of course, this derby will just be the cherry on top of jam-packed weekend of action. The Special One will take the reins for a London Derby between West Ham and Tottenham at 7:30 Saturday on NBCSN. The 10 am slot is crowded with six matches. The TV match is Arsenal- Southampton on NBCSN. The Gunners had looked poised for a challenge to the top four but now are winless in their last four; a home match with Southampton might get them back on track. I'll probably go with Bournemouth - Wolves on NBC Gold over the TV match. Anybody notice that only Liverpool have fewer losses than Wolves? The two sit 8-9 in the table with 16 points each and virtually identical goal differentials. Other matches of note on Gold at 10 am include first place Liverpool traveling to Crystal Palace and second place Leicester on the road to Brighton.
The NBC feature game at 12:30 is Man City - Chelsea. The Blues have worked their way into third, ahead of City. Christian Pulisic, who has featured in Chelsea's resurgence, looks doubtful for the match. Still hoping for a good one here.
Sunday's solo contest is also intriguing - Sheffield United hosting Man United. The Blades are unbeaten in five after a loss to Liverpool. Man United still haven't decided what they want to be when they grow up. Seems like a good test for both.
Also, full slate of Champions League group stage matches mid week so check your local listings for those.
We have so much to be thankful for.
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