Better Than Leftovers

Like they used to say about old records  - drop the needle down anywhere and you'll like what you hear - you could have picked just about any match last weekend and seen a good contest.  Excepting of course, Aston Villa - Newcastle, which was a stinker for all but diehard Villa fans.

BFS Derby viewing party; Baine (far right) has
 Newcastle colors but roots for Aston Villa

Dennis may add his own comments but the Fillebrown derby was a sleeper and Aston Villa fully earned their 2-0 win.  Newcastle were simply not present and surrendered two set piece goals.  On the first, maybe Dubravka didn't get the wall exactly right but the free kick by Hourihane from just outside the box was well-taken anyway.  On the other, it looked like neither Magpie defender was sure who was supposed to cover El Ghazi.  One goal was going to be a struggle, two goals was a mountain to climb.  The stats say Newcastle had five shots on target but that seems high. Even though they have just one goal between them, the front three of Joelinton, Almiron and Saint-Maximin have been creating good chances and generating good offensive pressure.  Against Villa, they created nothing.  The points definitely meant more to Villa and the whole thing was a reminder of how lucky Newcastle have been to this point.

Dennis definitely had more fun than me.  Like me however, he doesn't get comfortable until they are up by four or more goals.   So he spent most of the second half fearful that somehow they would blow it.  Around 80 minutes he believed a draw was safe and around 90 minutes he conceded that the Villans were going to win.  I paid for the post-match dinner though it's not clear whether this was because Newcastle lost, I'm the dad, or my consulting firm had a good year.


Better Viewing Elsewhere

The three unluckiest sides to date - Watford, Everton and Southampton - saw no change in their fortunes.  I didn't see Watford - Burnley (0-3) or Everton - Norwich (0-2); the 538 stats say the Hornets and Toffees could have won those matches based on expected goals.  I did watch the 2-2 draw between Arsenal and Southampton.  Certainly that was an unexpected point for the Saints on the road but with Arsenal scoring in the 96th minute, Southampton were denied the full three points and again, 538 says they might have been unlucky.  Great match to watch by the way.

I had high hopes for Bournemouth - Wolves and maybe gave up on it too soon.  Wolves were all over Bournemouth quickly and tallied at 21 and 31 minutes.  When Simon Francis was sent off for a second yellow at 37 minutes, I was thinking it was over and switched to my dvred Arsenal-Southampton match.  Maybe a hasty decision as Bournemouth got one back at 59 minutes.  Since I didn't see it, I can't say if the final 30 minutes were compelling and I certainly got my money's worth with Arsenal - Southampton.  Still, maybe I should learn to hang in as you never know.

Spurs certainly responded under new management.  They looked great against West Ham and carried a 2-0 into the halftime locker room.  Kane added a third early in the second half and Spurs were cruising.  Two late goals for the Hammers made the final score deceptively respectable and served as a reminder that Spurs still have work to do.

Man City - Chelsea played a great first half.  Blues got the jump before City countered with two goals by halftime.  Second half was nowhere near as fun and the final was 2-1.  Those watching any of the other 10 am games might have missed Liverpool's thrilling 2-1 win over Crystal Palace.  The Eagles had tied the match at 82 minutes before Firmino got the game-winner at 85 minutes.  Wished I could have seen that one too but there are only so many minutes in a Saturday.

And none of the above qualify as match of the weekend.  That honor goes to a marvelous 3-3 draw between Sheffield United - Man United.  Before a raucous 32,000+ at ancient Bramall Lane (opened in 1852 for cricket, hosting football since 1862), the Blades fashioned a 2-0 lead over the Red Devils.  Then, three goals in less than eight minutes (72, 77 and 79) completely turned the tables.  At 2-3,  I was texting Jeff H as to whether this would be looked back on as the moment Cinderella Sheffield saw their carriage turn back into a pumpkin.  Spoke too soon.  Oliver McBurnie leveled things in the 90th minute. There was a bit of a wait as it wasn't clear whether the ball had come off McBurnie's arm first.  Too hard to tell IMHO so the VAR decision to let the goal stand was fair.  Sorry Jeff H, but it's this week's YouTubeableMoment.   A totally deserved draw for Sheffield.

So, slightly more than one-third of the way through the season, the top four - Liverpool, Leicester, Man City, and Chelsea - doesn't look that weird.  But 5th through 10th certainly has a different feel to it; in order they are Wolves, Sheffield United, Burnley, Arsenal, Man United and Tottenham.  Everton and West Ham linger near the relegation zone.

Results to date leave four six managers at elevated risks of being sacked.  Surprised that Marco Silva survived an 0-2 loss to Norwich at home.  Everton's next five matches in order are Leicester, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man United and Arsenal.  That's just nasty; losses in any or all of those matches in isolation wouldn't seem like justification for sacking.   So maybe Silva survives until Burnley on Boxing Day?

Unai Emery's Arsenal were lucky to escape with a 2-2 draw at home versus Southampton.  They are winless in their last five and eight points out of fourth.  He's hanging on by a thread.  With West Ham just three points clear of the relegation zone, Manuel Pellegrini is certainly in jeopardy as well.  Ole Gunnar Solkjaer saw his team snatch a draw from the jaws of defeat and that may buy him some time.  And with their clubs now 19th and 20th in the table, Ralph Hasenhuttl (Southampton) and Quique Flores (Watford) probably shouldn't be buying new houses just yet either.  Good article here from the Guardian on the pros and cons of dumping Silva, Emery and Pellegrini.

Wrote the above late Thursday night.  By Friday morning, Emery was gone.  The Europa League loss to Eintracht Frankfurt was the final straw.  Freddie Ljungberg takes over as interim manager.  Mikel Arteta, Massimiliano Allegri and Nuno Espirito Santo are mentioned as leading candidates.  Certainly Arteta would be a natural fit but he's Guardiola's assistant right now.  Santo has led his Wolves squad to 5th in the table so a mid-season switch there might be awkward.

Trivia question: Who is currently longest tenured manager in EPL (answer below)


Champions League

Great midweek viewing here too.  Spurs ceded two goals to Olympiacos before storming back for a 4-2 win.  They clinch a spot in the knockout round.  Man City were already in pretty good shape so the 1-1 draw with Shakhtar Donetsk was good enough to send them onto the knockout round as well.

Full body magic spray - good for what ails you

Two more entertaining matches on Wednesday.  Chelsea spotted Valencia a goal before netting two of their own, the second from American scoring machine Christian Pulisic.  A dubious PK call gave Valencia a chance to level but Arrivabeluga Archipelago Kepa made a brilliant save, which you can see here, to protect the lead.  Ah, but the joy was short-lived as Valencia eventually got their equalizer in the 82nd minute.  A win would not have guaranteed Chelsea a berth in the knockout round though it would have left them sitting pretty  A win over the group's weakest member (Lille) in the final group stage match will see them through.  Liverpool looked better on the stat sheet yet could only manage a 1-1 draw with Napoli.  This left them short of qualifying for the knockout round so they will need a win or draw against FC Red Bull Salzberg to book their ticket.  Best memory from that match might have been the total body magic spray treatment that a Napoli player got after landing on his shoulder (see picture above right). You can see he's shrouded in a cloud of the stuff.

Final group stage matches are 12/10 and 12/11.


The Weekend and Week Days Too

We enter December, a month in which you won't go more than a day or two with no EPL team in action.  There are league matches on 16 days and Champions League/Europa League add three more days of viewing.  The longest drought will be from 12/17 through 12/20.

Newcastle get us started early Saturday as they offer themselves up to Man City for the 7:30 NBCSN match.  We're hearing that there could be some notable changes, like Atsu for Almiron and Krafth for Yedlin.  Sean Longstaff will return from suspension, likely taking Shelvey's place.  The phrase "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic" comes to mind.  They are taking on a City squad that will be without Aguero, which means they can only choose from Jay Zeus and Mahrez for striker.  This one's all about keeping the goal differential down.

Four matches at 10 am.  TV choice is Spurs - Bournemouth (NBCSN) and we'll probably go with that.  Burnley - Crystal Palace might be a good second choice on NBC Gold; Chelsea hosting West Ham in another London derby and Liverpool - Brighton don't look quite as exciting.  That Southampton vs Watford is the "feature" 12:30 match on NBC is possibly puzzling but maybe not if you love relegation battles.  Somebody has to get points here.

Four matches on Sunday. The two at 9 am are Norwich-Arsenal and Wolves vs Sheffield United.  The former is on NBCSN but we're more inclined to watch the latter on NBC Gold.  They are 5-6 in the table and play attractive football.  At 11 we have Leicester - Everton and Man United - Aston Villa.  I can see reasons to check out both.  Could be I watch the first on Gold, then go to the dvr for the second.  What else ya gonna do on a snowy Sunday?

Take Monday off but be ready to report back to work on Tuesday.  The NBCSN match is Burnley vs Man City at 3:15 on NBCSN.   Crystal Palace - Bournemouth is at 2:30 on NBC Gold.  Six more on Wednesday.  The TV match looks good - Man United vs Spurs.  Big match up for both of those teams.  Big enough that it relegated the Merseyside derby to NBC Gold at 3:15; is this a slap at Everton or what?  Newcastle get to travel to Sheffield Thursday; the Magpies are solid underdogs in this one too.  You'll have to go to Gold to watch, as Arsenal - Brighton gets the NBCSN TV slot.

Will that hold you until next Saturday?

Trivia answer: Eddie Howe - Bournemouth 7 years 47 days

A Week "Off"

No moss growing under the soccer world's feet...

International Stuff

The USMNT did not have any trouble dispatching Canada and Cuba in the CONCACAF Nations Cup matches.  As I understand it, there was really nothing of consequence - except the US reputation - on the line.  The US only needed to finish second in their group to qualify for the 2021 Gold Cup but with these victories took first in the group.  It was probably still good that they took care of business and they will face Honduras in the Nations League semi-final, with the winner to take on the winner of the other semi between Mexico and Costa Rica.  Those matches will take place in June.

Slightly more serious stuff in Europe as group stage play concluded and more automatic berths were awarded for the 2020 Euro Championships.  I saw Iceland come up short in a 0-0 draw against Turkey. For excitement, Czech Republic vs Kosovo was pretty good. Trailing 0-1 at 70 minutes, the Czech Republic were looking at third place and no automatic berth.  Goals at 71 and 79 minutes rectified that and there was much rejoicing, at least for the Czechs.  Portugal struggled a bit against Luxembourg on a pitch that would make a Philadelphia Public League groundskeeper blanch but got a 2-0 win and a berth.

Monday's match between Ireland and Denmark was high on tension but relatively low on action.  The Irish in their kale collard green collared green jerseys (left) simply didn't have enough offense.  Denmark was always going to be satisfied with a draw that would advance them to the finals so a goal at 73 minutes looked like it had settled matters.  An Irish  goal at 85 minutes provided some glimpse of hope but the 1-1 final was just not enough.

Their neighbors across St. George's Channel - that would be Wales - had a better time of it on Tuesday  They handled Hungary pretty well and earned their 2-0 win.  Check out the first goal on a connection between Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey. The delivery and finish make it this week's  YouTubeableMoment.

So twenty spots are set.  They include:

Austria                        Belgium
Croatia                        Czech Republic
Denmark                     England
Finland                        France
Germany                     Italy
Netherlands                 Poland
Portugal                       Russia
Spain                           Sweden
Switzerland                 Turkey
Ukraine                        Wales

Another 16 countries have a second chance at the last four slots through a two-game playoff process in March.  Final pairings for those:

Path A: Iceland v Romania, Bulgaria v Hungary*

Path B: Bosnia and Herzegovina v Northern Ireland*, Slovakia v Republic of Ireland

Path C: Scotland v Israel, Norway v Serbia*

Path D: Georgia v Belarus*, North Macedonia v Kosovo

So it's possible Ireland would meet Northern Ireland for one of the last spots.  Also note that one of Georgia, Belarus, North Macedonia and Kosovo is going to get a spot. They are currently ranked 39, 37, 36, and 46 respectively in UEFA.  I want one of them in my group when they get to drawing the groups for the final.
 

Pochettino Sacked

A surprise but not a surprise.  They have been underperforming - aside from some good Champions League moments - for over a year now.  But how much is on Pochettino?  They are underspenders compared to the other Top Six.  His replacement is The Special One, Jose Mourinho.

Dennis: He is the de facto manager for struggling teams that need a turnaround
Steve: Is de facto Latin for douche?
Michael B: COYS

So Michael will hang in there.


Who's Been Lucky?

I did go back to complete the analysis that I mentioned a view weeks ago in the context of Sheffield United's fairy tale start to the season.  Using data from 538, I recalculated results for each game based on expected goals (shot-based and nonshot).  Games that were within .5 were classified as draws.  The revised table looks like this:

Manchester City	34
Liverpool	30
Chelsea	28
Manchester United	23
Everton	22
Leicester City	22
Watford	21
Arsenal	18
Brighton and Hove Albion	17
Burnley	17
Tottenham Hotspur	16
Crystal Palace	12
Southampton	12
Wolverhampton	12
AFC Bournemouth	11
Sheffield United	11
Aston Villa	10
West Ham United	10
Norwich City	5
Newcastle	3

Some comments.  Biggest loser was Newcastle at -12; Watford was a +13 while Man City was +9.  At just +2, Tottenham's situation doesn't look like the result of bad luck.

The Newcastle number required game-by-game review but it stands up.  All of their losses are deserved.  They were outplayed by Tottenham but snuck away with a 1-0 win.  The win over West Ham probably should have been a loss too.  The wins over Man United and Bournemouth look more like draws.  And the draws to Wolves and Brighton could easily have been losses.  That's 12 points.  It makes some sense - they have been lucky to this point.  They've been living on header goals on set pieces from defenders.  I haven't seen enough Watford games to comment on their +13 points from this approach.

I certainly don't present this as definitive statement as to what the table should look like.  But if some of this is luck, presumably some of the variations could even out as the season goes on.  And the study was "peer reviewed" by Dennis.


Union Redux

Several weeks removed from the season, let's take a look back at Union's performance in 2019 and personnel issues for 2020.  Certainly the results easily justify the mantle of "best season" in the Union's history.  We'll leave the issue of whether that's a low bar aside.  They had their equal highest finish (third) and equal best goal differential (+8); that 2011 season was actually pretty good.  This was the most points in franchise history (55) and most goals scored (58).  And of course, there was the hysteric historic playoff win over the Red Bulls.

Many, though not all, of Tanner's choices worked out well.  Peter Andrews at the Philly Soccer Page did a nice summary of those moves, which include (brave for a pundit) his reaction at the time.  Here is Part One and here is Part Two.  The only outright bust was Wooten.  Fabian was a disappointment but he had his moments; the problem is that his $ per moment was way too high.  But shuhBILLkoh, Monteiro and Wagner were solid and Santos and Collin were helpful.

Looking at WhoScored Ratings provides some quantitative measure of performance to match against one's subjective views.  Top five Union players were shuhBILLkoh, Monteiro, Medunjanin, Ilsinho, and Elliott.  Missing from list for me is Wagner, though he wasn't that far behind Elliott in the ratings.  I wouldn't have had Med in that list but he was important to the offense.  A little surprised how far down the ratings I had to go to find Aaronson but he could disappear for stretches.  He still rated higher than Blake. who had the lowest rating of any Union with regular playing time and next to last among all regular MLS keepers.  Yikes, that used to be a position we didn't have to think about.

So where do we go from here?  For better or worse, Aaronson, Bedoya, Blake, Elliott, Gaddis, shuhBILLkoh, Santos, Wagner and Wooten are back.  Fabian and Medunjanin will not be offered contracts; I'm okay with that as Fabian was just too costly for what he provided and Medunjanin was just getting too old to handle the position.  Center back Auston Trusty has been traded to Colorado. He had been a regular for much of the season but by the end of the year wasn't even a named substitute.  Reports suggest there are some unspecified off-field issues.  Presumably this means they will sign McKenzie.  Whether Ilsinho and more importantly, Monteiro, return is also not settled.  The bad news on Monteiro is that 1) he might not want to come back and 2) even if he does, the asking price of his parent club (FC Metz of France's Ligue 2) may be too high.  If Trusty trade was an attempt to generate enough funds to satisfy Monteiro and FC Metz, I'm all for it.  Losing a key player in the midfield - again - is not a helpful way to start the off-season.  I would guess they will re-sign Ilsinho.

Probably need to shore up right back; Ray Gaddis had his moments but he also had his moments.  Even before Trusty was traded I would have been looking for some help at center back.  With Medunjanin, Fabian and possibly Monteiro gone, the midfield may occupy much Tanner's off-season attention. The good news is that Tanner's batting average is pretty good so there is some reason to believe that he can make the necessary changes.


BFS Derby!

This weekend marks the return of the BFS Founders Derby with Aston Villa hosting Newcastle at 3 pm on Monday (NBCSN).  The two sides haven't squared off for two years since Newcastle were promoted in 2017.  Both are usually mentioned in the list of relegation candidates.  Early on this season, Aston Villa looked much better than the Magpies but fortunes have changed and Newcastle have four points on the Villans.  FiveThirtyEight gives Villa a 47% chance of winning compared to Newcastle's 26%.  I'll be heading up to Allentown to watch with Dennis.  Prince William, another noted Aston Villa fan, has not responded to the invitation to join us.

Of course, this derby will just be the cherry on top of jam-packed weekend of action.  The Special One will take the reins for a London Derby between West Ham and Tottenham at 7:30 Saturday on NBCSN.  The 10 am slot is crowded with six matches.  The TV match is Arsenal- Southampton on NBCSN.  The Gunners had looked poised for a challenge to the top four but now are winless in their last four; a home match with Southampton might get them back on track.  I'll probably go with Bournemouth - Wolves on NBC Gold over the TV match.  Anybody notice that only Liverpool have fewer losses than Wolves?  The two sit 8-9 in the table with 16 points each and virtually identical goal differentials.  Other matches of note on Gold at 10 am include first place Liverpool traveling to Crystal Palace and second place Leicester on the road to Brighton.

The NBC feature game at 12:30 is Man City - Chelsea.  The Blues have worked their way into third,  ahead of City.  Christian Pulisic, who has featured in Chelsea's resurgence, looks doubtful for the match.  Still hoping for a good one here.

Sunday's solo contest is also intriguing - Sheffield United hosting Man United.  The Blades are unbeaten in five after a loss to Liverpool.  Man United still haven't decided what they want to be when they grow up.  Seems like a good test for both.

Also, full slate of Champions League group stage matches mid week so check your local listings for those.

We have so much to be thankful for.

Who Needs Strikers?

Various projects leave me short on time, and just when things are getting interesting.

Clark's "tap" ties him for Newcastle scoring lead with two

Newcastle took Bournemouth with two more goals from defenders after our attackers squandered several chances.  DeAndre Yedlin's all-in header that leveled the match at 1-1 is our pick for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Note how VAR took all the fun out the celebration as Yedlin knew it was a tight call as to whether he had stayed onside.  To be fair to our attacking players, the set up came from Almiron and Saint-Maximin.   Ciaran Clark's game winner was nowhere near as pretty but somehow it did get across the line.  Of course there was plenty of stoppage time and some near misses from Bournemouth because this is Newcastle and they never do anything easy.  The Magpies managed to hold on to capture another three points.  They are now just two points out of fifth and seven clear of the relegation zone.  Some of that is due to wackiness elsewhere but they do have 10 points from the last five matches so they have earned that cushion.  We can rest on that until at least December 4th.

So what's happening?  Is this classic Newcastle?  Never as bad as they seem when things aren't going right but also not as good as they seem when they are on a roll.  Maybe we don't need our strikers to score as long as they keep passing to defenders so they can score.  I still think this a long relegation fight because of the number of decent squads and the lack of really terrible sides, though I am starting to wonder about Norwich.  No, I haven't forgotten they beat Newcastle and Man City.

Really, Michael? Guardiola not pleased with some of  Oliver's
calls on Sunday

The feature clash between 1st place Liverpool and 2nd place Man City was a bit of bust.  City
management and fans are still complaining about Michael Oliver not calling handling in the box shortly before Fabinho's laser made it 1-0.  The ball clearly hit Alexandar-Arnold's arm; was it in a natural position?  Hard to say.  VAR didn't overrule so it was clearly a tough call.  City didn't need to give up another just seven minutes later and yet another early in the second half.

Friday's Norwich - Watford tilt could only be streamed on NBC.  Those who missed out shouldn't feel that deprived not seeing the Hornets' 2-0 win.  Christian Pulisic notched another in Chelsea's 2-0 win over Crystal Palace.  Spurs woes continued as they could only manage a 1-1 draw at home against Sheffield United.  At least they still have Champions League.  Seriously, this might be the first time since I've been following Newcastle that the Magpies are above Tottenham in the table.  The draw lifted Sheffield United to fifth.  I had planned to take an in-depth look at the 538 expected goals numbers to see who's been lucky or unlucky so far this season.  I did check all of Sheffield United's matches and it looks to me they are six points above where they should be based on expected goals.  In this crazy, compressed table, that would drop them from 5th to 16th or 17th.

Speaking of 17th place, hard times continue for Aston Villa.  Playing Wolves away is no fun the week after facing Liverpool.  They weren't terrible but they looked uninspired; missing Grealish - and others - is probably taking it's toll.  The 1-2 loss leaves them just three clear of the drop zone.  On the positive side, they are only six points out of 5th.

Leicester passed another test with a win over Arsenal.  I watched the match and have vague recollections of thinking like the 2-0 was a little flattering to the Gunners.  In many ways it was close - Leicester scored at 68 and 75 minutes and many of the stats match up well.  But it looked like Arsenal played "not to lose" while Leicester were the creative side.  The Foxes are second now, behind only Liverpool.


Seattle Sounder than Toronto

I stole that from Adrian Healy or some other MLS announcer.  Seattle defeated Toronto 3-1 to win the MLS Cup.  Not a compelling match in my view.  Toronto definitely had the run of play for 60 minutes but had no goals to show.  Seattle got an own goal that was not ruled an own goal at 57 minutes.  The shot by Leerdam looked to be nowhere near on target until it deflected off a Toronto defender.  The second goal was cleaner and still sort of against the run of play.  A third at 90 minutes clinched things, making Jozy Altidore's powerful header in stoppage time a footnote.  While the game itself wasn't great, watching Brian Schmetzer, Seattle's home grown manager, take in the victory was. More on Schmetzer here.


Getting Ready

The BFS Founders Derby is just around the corner.  Earlier it looked like Dennis's Aston Villa would wipe the floor with Steve's Newcastle.  And that could still happen.  But the Magpies recent form gives me hope for a competitive match on Monday November 25.

For the next week or so you'll have to amuse yourself with European Qualifiers and CONCACAF Nations League stuff.  Most of the European stuff is on ESPN3 or ESPN+ but you might find a few on ESPN2.  This set of matches will conclude group play, locking up spots for next year's European Championship for 20 countries.  Another four slots will be up for grabs in a byzantine playoff format.

The USMNT plays Canada on Friday (7 pm ESPN2) and Cuba on Tuesday (7:30 on FS1).  Recall the last match versus Canada didn't go all that well.  Let's see if there's a response this time.

Craziness Continues

Another raft of puzzling results, none more so than Newcastle's 3-2 away win over West Ham.

Shelvey is Newcastle's leading scorer with two goals

Magpies struck early and often but almost not often enough.  They came to rue missed chances that would have had them up 4-0 or 5-0, which would have made for a much cushier ride to the finish. Playing without either Longstaff did not seem to be a problem as Shelvey and Hayden resumed their partnership in the midfield with good results.  As is Newcastle's style, the center backs continued to provide the scoring punch with Clark and then Fernandez getting goals at 16 and 22 minutes.  The biggest issue seemed to be that Saint-Maximin and Almiron had golden opportunities to make it even worse but they could not convert and the half ended 2-0.  Fortunately Shelvey added a third with a free kick at 51 minutes so there was a period when things seemed okay.  But easy is not in Newcastle's nature.  A goal at 73 minutes cut the margin and it started to look scary.  Another at 90 minutes meant a harrowing few minutes of stoppage time.  Yeah, I know before the match I would have gladly taken a draw but not after being up 3-0 through 70+ minutes.  Fortunately the Magpies held on for the three points.

The biggest positive was the way the team just jumped on the Hammers from the get-go.  Almiron and Saint-Maximin were wreaking havoc all over the place.  They are clearly critical offensive forces even when they don't score.  It would just be better if they did score.  Some credit to Bruce for the Hayden/Shelvey pairing; it was partly forced by Longstaff's suspension but not completely.  Again, some shocking let ups in the defense late that can't continue.  But they sit 15th in the table with a four point cushion over 18th place, which means no matter what happens this weekend, the Magpies will go into the international break outside the relegation zone.  That did not seem likely a few weeks ago.


Business Not As Usual

Liverpool and Man City played remarkably similar matches against lower tier opposition and both were lucky to come away with 2-1 wins.  Aston Villa scored early then managed to keep Liverpool off the scoreboard for 86 minutes.  Alas, they then surrendered goals at 87 and 94 and came away with naught for the efforts.  Similarly Southampton got up on Man City only to allow goals at 70 and 86 to get their 1-2 loss.

The morning started off with another curious result as Bournemouth took the measure of what we thought was a resurging Man United side.  Check out the game's only goal from Joshua King, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The pass, the settle, the flick over the defender and the finish are all superb.  Jeff H will likely complain that Man Utd is never featured in the YouTubeableMoment except when it's against them but even he will have to admit that was a lovely goal.

Leicester just ground out a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace on a dark, damp day at Selhurst Park that left me and Michael B nostalgic.  Wolves continued their haunting of the "Top Six" clubs with a 1-1 draw at Arsenal. Sheffield United continued what must be considered their fairy tale with a 3-0 thumping of Burnley; the Blades sit 6th in the table with equal fewest number of goals allowed of any team in the EPL - just eight (tied with Leicester).  Chelsea walked away with a 2-1 win over Watford to keep their place in the top four.  Brighton kept Norwich's bad streak going with a 2-0 win.

Except for the very top, the table looks weird at this point.  Just two points separate 10th (Man United!?) and 17th (Everton !!??).  Tottenham are 11th and trail such power houses as Sheffield United, Bournemouth, Brighton and Crystal Palace.  I guess a top five of Liverpool, Man City, Leicester, Chelsea, and Arsenal isn't all that strange but the rest sure is.

The weather is becoming more appropriate.  Most of the games I saw included precipitation ranging from mists to downpours.  Good. I was getting tired of watching matches on sun splashed fields.

The Ugly, the Ugly and the Ugly

Underperforming Spurs took on even more underperforming Everton at Goodison Park and the whole thing, from start to finish, was not pretty.  Apparently, I am not the only one who sees it that way.  Really, I urge you to click and read the article.  The money quote:

This game was obviously going to suck, and yet it sucked beyond anyone’s wildest expectations, in ways no one could have anticipated.

I will add that the first half was so bad even Rebecca Lowe was forced to use the adjective "turgid" to describe it. 

Obviously a big part of the ugliness was the horrendous injury to Everton's Gomes after being tripped by Son.  It was clearly a foul, clearly a yellow card.  But the injury came about because of how Gomes landed, not the force of Son's challenge.  Atkinson appeared to show yellow as he approached Son but changed it to a red card.  To me it looked like he made the change based on the severity of the injury, not the foul.  Thus, I felt justice was served when the red card was rescinded upon appeal. Atkinson's handling of the foul was just consistent with how things went with this match.  That it ended in a 1-1 draw which really didn't improve either team's situation, seemed appropriate.


Champions League Follies

Two wins and two draws for the EPL sides.  Spurs looked pretty good beating Crvena zvezda (Red Star to you and me) 4-0.  Maybe Pochettino should simply convince his squad that weekend EPL matches are really midweek Champions League contests.  Also note the very classy behavior from Son after scoring two goals; instead of celebrating, he appeared to offer apologies to Gomes.  Didn't see Liverpool but they got a 2-1 win over Genk.  Also missed Man City's 1-1 draw with Atalanta; big story there is that Ederson sustained an injury that will likely keep him out of Sunday's match against Liverpool.  Also noteworthy was that his replacement, Claudio Bravo, got himself red carded so City ended the match with Kyle Walker in goal.

But the most fun was clearly Chelsea's 4-4 draw with Ajax.  Tammy Abraham got himself an own goal just two minutes in.  Kepa got another one at 35 minutes.  This was truly insult to injury as Dennis pointed out as he had been beaten on a cross that went over his head; but the ball didn't go directly in, hitting the post then rebounding off Kepa's face into the net. That made it 3-1 Ajax.  van de Beek made it 4-1 early in the second half.  Chelsea's comeback starts with Asteipcipdulta Asspiguliata Dave scoring from about a foot out to make it 4-2.  Then it just gets nuts.  Daley Blind commits a foul but ref plays advantage, which ends up with a ball striking Veltman's arm in the box.  First, the ref goes back to award Blind a yellow for his foul, then a red card as it's Blind's second yellow.  Next, he heads over to Veltman to show him yellow, then red, as it is also Veltman's second of the game.  About 4 minutes after the first foul was actually committed, Jorginho converts the PK so it's 4-3 at 71 minutes and Ajax are down to nine players.  Three minutes later, Reece James levels the match with a shot from the top of the box.  Chelsea actually put the ball into the net again at 78 minutes but the goal was disallowed after VAR saw that the ball had hit Abraham's arm in the box.  Probably a fair result but what a ride.

All four EPL sides still look in good position to advance to the knockout stage.


Big Match Up

Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN is the much anticipated first meeting of the season between Liverpool and Man City.  Should be a goal or four.  Oddsmakers and 538 both have City as slight favorites to win though a draw could be the most likely outcome.  Hope it lives up to expectations.

Newcastle are back home to face Bournemouth at 10 am on Saturday on NBC Gold.  The Cherries have been playing well so this is no easy fixture.  It's a fair test to see if last week's performance at West Ham signaled a real shift for the Magpies.

The weekend will kickoff with a 3 pm Friday match for which TV coverage is not clear.  Given that it's 19th place Norwich hosting 20th place ( and winless) Watford, maybe there won't be any coverage.  Saturday's 7:30 match (NBCSN) is a London derby featuring Chelsea and Crystal Palace.  The 10 am TV game on NBCSN offers every reason to tune in.  Overachieving Sheffield United will take on underachieving Spurs at the new White Hart Lane Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (get a better name please). The feature NBC game at 12:30 also looks like a cracker with Leicester hosting Arsenal.  The Foxes are huge favorites, maybe deservedly so, but somehow this feels like a tight one.

Sunday morning has two 9 am games before the big one.  You can see Man United try to bounce back against Brighton (NBCSN) or Wolves take on Aston Villa (NBC Gold).  We will probably opt for the latter, mostly to scout Villa for the upcoming renewal of the Fillebrown derby (Aston Villa - Newcastle) on 11/25.

Also, don't forget MLS Cup at 3 pm on ABC with Seattle hosting Toronto.   Not crazy about either team but I think I dislike Toronto more (whiners!).  It's the third time in four years these two have met in the final.  Seattle didn't score in either one but still won in 2016 in a shoot out; Toronto won 2-0 in 2017.  There is some thought that this could be a "grind it out" contest rather than a free wheeling goal fest.  The Sounders are a heavy favorite (65% at 538).

Gonna be in the low 40s this weekend.  Great football viewing weather.