The Benefit of Low Expectations

Going into the weekend the best case scenario I had was Newcastle getting a draw against Sheffield Wednesday Saturday and Huddersfield getting the W against Nottingham Forest.  That would have reduced the magic number to 10 points.  Turns out both lost, reducing the magic number to 8 points. Sure Newcastle lost but they ended up better off than even my low expectations imagined.  Nice.

Tom Lees headed Sheffield Wednesday into a deserved
 lead in the second half

All accounts indicate the 1-2 loss was a fair measure of how the teams played.  The Newcastle goal came from Shelvey late, making the score closer than the match really was.  Oh, and Dwight Gayle injured the other hamstring.  Perfect.  However, given the Huddersfield loss, we'll keep the window to the ledge closed for the time being.  Even if Huddersfield run the table, Newcastle need just eight points from five fixtures - Leeds, Ipswich, Preston North End, Cardiff City and Barnsley.  There should be a minimum of nine points from those matches but yeah, it'll likely be a struggle to the end.


The Downside of Low Expectations

Of course, when you have low expectations and they aren't met, that's a horse of a different color.  I had hoped the Union might manage a draw at home against Portland.  An early goal off a Marquez header was a promising start.  But it didn't hold and the 1-3 loss cemented the Union's position as the worst team in MLS.  It was so bad, only Graham's steady demeanor kept Jeff H from leaving early.  I confess I nearly fast forwarded through the last 20 minutes but I hung in there.

So what is up with this team?  I'll start with the glass is 1/8th full side first.  The schedule hasn't been all that kind, with matches against both of last year MLS Cup Finalists.  Plus, despite not playing all that well against DC United or Orlando, they could very plausibly gotten draws in both of those games.

On the glass is 7/8ths empty side, the debate rages on issues like the formation, line up choices, the talent level and the management.  Graham and I discussed a 3-5-2 but it's not clear that we even have two, let alone three, playable center backs.  I do like the idea of two strikers, not the usual one we deploy;  maybe some form of a 4-4-2 could work.   Seems like there may be some players riding the pine that might deserve chances given the current form; that would include Marcus Epps, Adam Najem, and Fafa Picault.  People say this team should be doing better given the personnel but I thought there was a good chance we'd struggle without Barnetta.  Bedoya is a good player but he's not a #10.  Some, but not all, of these things fall to manager Jim Curtin.  He does seem slow to change when things aren't going well.  But Earnie Stewart needs to be getting ready for the summer transfer window.


Status Quo

Top five sides all got their wins this weekend so no change at the top of the EPL.  Most were easy wins (see Tottenham 4-0 over Watford as Exhibit A); Liverpool fell behind early at Stoke but still got a 2-1 win after goals in the 70th and 72nd minutes by Coutinho and Firmino, the latter being this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Arsenal's trip to Selhurst Park wasn't as happy; the Gunners went down 0-3 to Crystal Palace and now sit in 6th, seven points outside the top four.  There is rampant talk about no leadership among the players and Arsene Wenger's main talking point - we make the Champions League every year - is in jeopardy.  Arsenal do have two games in hand so it's not impossible to rally at this point but if you saw the performance on Monday, you have to wonder.

Of the bottom four, only Middlesbrough got any points and that was a draw at home to Burnley.  They, along with Sunderland (who haven't scored in 585 minutes), Hull and Swansea, look to be separating themselves from the others, in a bad way.  Note that there are seven teams between 34 and 37 points, covering 10th through 16th in the table.

Last week, I suggested that Everton-Leicester might be the most fun match of the week.  Hey-ho, hope you got to see the Toffees 4-2 win.  The first half might have been the most entertaining 45 minutes of football this year.  Everton scored one minute in but found themselves down 1-2 by the 10 minute mark.  Goals by Lukaku and Jagielka gave Everton a 3-2 lead by halfttime.  Okay, second half was no where near as exciting but still a great match overall.  What do they say?  Something about a blind squirrel...


Whither the Blues

So touched that La Liga snob fan Michael B was wondering what was up with my Football Manager Chester Blues.  We've been a bit unsteady since clinching the EPL title.  A couple draws, a loss to Chelsea.  I have been giving younger players some match time and the players seem a bit lethargic.  Even the fans gave me a pass after the loss to Chelsea - something like "we're disappointed but hey, we're EPL champions."  Sounds like a collective hangover in Chester.  We can't get too out of form as Chester will take on Arsenal at Wembley for the FA Cup Final.


Maintaining Low Expectations

Most of the Championship Division matches are Friday this week.  Fully expect Huddersfield to handle Preston North End at home while Newcastle will likely struggle at home to Leeds.  They are a decent side but I'm still holding out for a draw.  All the Championship sides have a quick turnaround and play again on Easter Monday.  Newcastle are away to Ipswich while Huddersfield travel to Derby; that's a slight advantage for the Magpies.

Best EPL action looks to be Manchester United hosting Chelsea Sunday at 11 (NBCSN).  The Red Devils' habit of getting draws when they should be winning has left them four behind Man City for fourth (though with a game in hand) but not sure this is where they make up ground.  Tottenham have Bournemouth (7:30 Saturday NBCSN), Liverpool is at West Brom (Sunday 8:30 NBCSN) and Man City travel to Southampton (feature match 12:30 on Saturday NBC); not slam dunks but certainly winnable fixtures.  We'll see what's up with Arsenal as they are on the road again, this time to relegation-threatened Middlesbrough.  Should be easy for the Gunners but that doesn't seem to be a word in their vocabulary these days.

I might look in on Crystal Palace-Leicester at 10 am Saturday (NBCSN).  Sam Allardyce seems to have had a rocky honeymoon but the marriage seems fine.  Crystal Palace managed only four points in his first eight matches but have five wins in their last six.  Craig Shakespeare had a dream honeymoon with five straight EPL wins (plus a Champions League victory); but Leicester lost last week to Everton and went down 0-1 to Atletico Madrid in this week's Champions League action.  Both sides are just a few points away from safety so this might be a wide open affair.

And the Union host NYCFC at Talen Energy Friday night at 7 pm.  Continuing with the low expectations theme, I'm hoping for a draw.