Newcastle Shoots Self in the Foot

This was going to be one of my favorite posts evah.  The 4-1 win over Preston on Monday clinched Newcastle's promotion to the EPL.  I would talk about the ups and downs of the season and rehash the great trip to St. James' Park in December.  Show a picture of me drinking the bottle of Newcastle Ale that I saved for the occasion.  Then I would speculate about the potential squad changes to put the team in position to compete as opposed to merely struggle not to get relegated again.

Instead, the issue on the table is that Newcastle facilities were raided by authorities in connection with possible tax fraud by club officials.  Managing Director Lee Charnley was arrested. The story is, as they say, still evolving (and might be completely revised by the time this is published) but the potential implications could be staggering.  The sanctions would of course depend on the severity of the violations but they could include massive fines ($50m?), starting next season with a minus 10 or 12 point penalty, or the promotion to the EPL being denied.

Other questions arise, like, will Rafa use this an excuse to bolt?  Of course, the destination most frequently mentioned for him is West Ham, who are under investigation just like Newcastle.  Will this be the event that forces Ashley to sell (silver lining scenario)?

Celebratory pictures like this have been replaced by

pictures of tax authorities seizing documents at SJP

I cannot help but be amused (ha ha) by this article in the Daily Mail, written before the raid, discussing various aspects of the transition, including whether Rafa would stay.  Money quote:

The odds are in favour of him remaining in charge, but this is Newcastle United, where self-implosion is a favourite pastime.  No club has the propensity to shoot itself in the foot quite like Newcastle, and for that reason supporters have every reason to feel nervous heading into the close-season.

How effing prophetic can you be?

A side note - West Ham offices were raided as well and Chelsea may be caught up in this issue too.

UPDATE: According to nufcblog.com, Charnley was released without charge.  It appears the issue is partly related to "image rights of players," which apparently is a gray area in tax law and the amount involved is 5 m pounds.  This sounds a little less scary but still enough to cast a shadow on what was a tremendous promotion effort.


On Second Thought

After watching the Union surrender a 3-0 lead at home vs Montreal, snatching a draw from the jaws of victory, the ledge was calling again.  Really good attacking football but equally soft defending.  It was watchable but frustrating.  Gonna be a long summer.


FA Cup As a Neutral

Is much more enjoyable.  Sure I might have preferred Spurs over Chelsea but it was a great match. Same for Arsenal - Manchester City.  Two competitive and exciting semis.  I must admit though that an Arsenal-Chelsea final sounds kind of boring.  But it has an interesting angle.  The season will be over at that point and Arsenal's fate known.  What if the Gunners finish 5th or worse but then win the FA Cup?  What happens to Wenger?


Updates

Happy to say that for the third week in a row my pick for match to watch turned out pretty good.  Crystal Palace spotted Liverpool an 0-1 lead but got a brace from Benteke for a come-from-behind 2-1 win.  The loss put a top four finish for Liverpool at risk as they lead the Manchester sides by one (City) and two (United) and both have a game in hand.  Thursday's Manchester derby was mostly devoid of serious scoring chances but there was plenty of snarl in the 0-0 draw.  Chelsea (4-2 over Southampton) and Tottenham (1-0 over Crystal Palace) won their mid-week matches and have pretty much wrapped up 1-2.   Chelsea are still in the better position but a four point lead with five to play is not insurmountable.

Sunderland are almost certain to go down at this point after losing to Middlesbrough.  The Black Cats scoring record in the last nine games looks like a baseball line score - 000000020; that's right, two goals in their last nine games.  The good news is they have matches against Bournemouth, Hull and Swansea coming up; the bad news is they could win all three but would still be in 19th place with closing matches against Arsenal and Chelsea.  Despite the win, Middlesbrough's chances also look bleak as their remaining games include Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool.  Swansea and Hull remain the leading candidates for the third relegation spot but teams at risk probably extend up to 12th in the table, which includes Burnley, Leicester, West Ham, Bournemouth, and Crystal Palace.  West Ham have consecutive matches against Stoke, Tottenham and Liverpool and get to deal with the fall out of the tax raids.


Picking an FA Club

A friend of ours has been dabbling with possible allegiances to a single FA club, not necessarily a Premier League side (e.g. Ipswich is still on the table).  He asked if it was acceptable to choose a club based on the "cool people" who are fans of that team.  BFS FA Club Selection Consultant Michael B (he helped me settle on Newcastle but I don't hold that against him although for some reason he can't seem to collect my share of the London traffic ticket) believes this is entirely appropriate.  This is easily searched on the internet although there is no comprehensive data base yet.  Some samples:

Newcastle - Sting and Brian Johnson (AC/DC)
Tottenham - Steve Nash, Shania Twain, Jude Law, Adele
Arsenal - Kevin Costner, Jay Z, Roger Waters
Liverpool - Daniel Craig, Samuel L Jackson, Elvis Costello
Man United - Justin Timberlake, Morrisey, David Gray
Man City - Oasis, Johnny Marr
West Ham - Katie Perry, Keira Knightley, Dave Grohl
Everton - Sly Stallone
Chelsea - Will Ferrell, Bryan Adams
Watford - Sir Elton John
West Brom - Eric Clapton

Hope that helps any of you undecideds out there.


The Weekend

Feature match should be the North London Derby Sunday at 11:30 (NBCSN); I must point out that a Spurs win would mean the Gunners cannot finish ahead of Tottenham.  Everton-Chelsea might be decent on Sunday at 9:05 on CNBC.

Many temporary Man United fans this weekend as a win by them over Swansea would mean that Leicester, West Ham, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace could all escape relegation with wins.  I've been enjoying Crystal Palace matches of late and will probably check in on the Eagles home game against Burnley, the 12:30 NBC match on Saturday.

In the Championship Division, Newcastle play Cardiff with but the slightest hope of catching Brighton for the top spot.  More interesting stuff is who will finish 3rd-6th and be in the playoff for the third promotion spot. Huddersfield has locked up one of those four playoff slots but Reading, Sheffield Wednesday, Fulham and Leeds will play musical chairs for the other three.  All have winnable matches this weekend but next week Fulham play Sheffield Wednesday Sunday which could decide who stays and who goes.

As first place in the Championship slides away, I will remind you of an informed fan who back in December felt that Brighton were a side to watch; his insightful comments are found here. Strange accent, that guy.

Union take on the LA Galaxy 10:30 pm on Saturday; BFS will watch so you don't have to.

Backing Into Promotion

Project deadlines loom so this will be short.  Probably for the best because all I have is whining.

Stumbling to the Finish Line

Newcastle look to be depending on the kindness of strangers.  They had a win at home vs Leeds all lined up but surrendered a goal in the 95th and last minute.  Not awful as one point was a reasonable target but really frustrating when three looked in the bag.  Monday was worse, an absolutely wretched performance at Ipswich.  Fortunately, Derby got a draw at Huddersfield and the two points lost there combined with Newcastle's point against Leeds makes the magic number five points.  Still in control but it's hard not to crawl back out on the ledge.

Chester-on-Delaware

Don't look for better news here.  The Union played a pretty decent half against NYCFC but came out of it with the score 0-0.  The second half was awful, including a 60 yard goal from David Villa.  That would be this week's YouTubeableMoment if I had the time.


Somewhere the Sun Is Shining

Michael B is happy.  An easy 4-0 win over Bournemouth combined with Man United's surprisingly easy win over Chelsea leaves the Spurs just four points out of first.  Then he got to see Atletico hang on for a Champions League win over Leicester, putting them in the semis.  Must be nice.

Happy to say my predicted feature match of last week - Crystal Palace v Leicester - turned out to be an exciting 2-2 draw.  Both are inches away from safety from relegation.


The Weekend

The FA Cup semis look good.   Chelsea-Tottenham on Saturday at 12:15 and Arsenal-Man City at 10 am Sunday.  Of course that takes five of the top seven out of the EPL schedule for the weekend.  Liverpool at Crystal Palace at 12:30 on Sunday might be good.

Newcastle enter the weekend with a mathematical chance to end the agony.  Huddersfield have a very tough match on Saturday against Fulham while the Magpies take on Preston North End at home.  A Newcastle win and Huddersfield draw or loss would be enough to finish the task.  Not that I think it will really happen.

Back to work.

The Benefit of Low Expectations

Going into the weekend the best case scenario I had was Newcastle getting a draw against Sheffield Wednesday Saturday and Huddersfield getting the W against Nottingham Forest.  That would have reduced the magic number to 10 points.  Turns out both lost, reducing the magic number to 8 points. Sure Newcastle lost but they ended up better off than even my low expectations imagined.  Nice.

Tom Lees headed Sheffield Wednesday into a deserved
 lead in the second half

All accounts indicate the 1-2 loss was a fair measure of how the teams played.  The Newcastle goal came from Shelvey late, making the score closer than the match really was.  Oh, and Dwight Gayle injured the other hamstring.  Perfect.  However, given the Huddersfield loss, we'll keep the window to the ledge closed for the time being.  Even if Huddersfield run the table, Newcastle need just eight points from five fixtures - Leeds, Ipswich, Preston North End, Cardiff City and Barnsley.  There should be a minimum of nine points from those matches but yeah, it'll likely be a struggle to the end.


The Downside of Low Expectations

Of course, when you have low expectations and they aren't met, that's a horse of a different color.  I had hoped the Union might manage a draw at home against Portland.  An early goal off a Marquez header was a promising start.  But it didn't hold and the 1-3 loss cemented the Union's position as the worst team in MLS.  It was so bad, only Graham's steady demeanor kept Jeff H from leaving early.  I confess I nearly fast forwarded through the last 20 minutes but I hung in there.

So what is up with this team?  I'll start with the glass is 1/8th full side first.  The schedule hasn't been all that kind, with matches against both of last year MLS Cup Finalists.  Plus, despite not playing all that well against DC United or Orlando, they could very plausibly gotten draws in both of those games.

On the glass is 7/8ths empty side, the debate rages on issues like the formation, line up choices, the talent level and the management.  Graham and I discussed a 3-5-2 but it's not clear that we even have two, let alone three, playable center backs.  I do like the idea of two strikers, not the usual one we deploy;  maybe some form of a 4-4-2 could work.   Seems like there may be some players riding the pine that might deserve chances given the current form; that would include Marcus Epps, Adam Najem, and Fafa Picault.  People say this team should be doing better given the personnel but I thought there was a good chance we'd struggle without Barnetta.  Bedoya is a good player but he's not a #10.  Some, but not all, of these things fall to manager Jim Curtin.  He does seem slow to change when things aren't going well.  But Earnie Stewart needs to be getting ready for the summer transfer window.


Status Quo

Top five sides all got their wins this weekend so no change at the top of the EPL.  Most were easy wins (see Tottenham 4-0 over Watford as Exhibit A); Liverpool fell behind early at Stoke but still got a 2-1 win after goals in the 70th and 72nd minutes by Coutinho and Firmino, the latter being this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Arsenal's trip to Selhurst Park wasn't as happy; the Gunners went down 0-3 to Crystal Palace and now sit in 6th, seven points outside the top four.  There is rampant talk about no leadership among the players and Arsene Wenger's main talking point - we make the Champions League every year - is in jeopardy.  Arsenal do have two games in hand so it's not impossible to rally at this point but if you saw the performance on Monday, you have to wonder.

Of the bottom four, only Middlesbrough got any points and that was a draw at home to Burnley.  They, along with Sunderland (who haven't scored in 585 minutes), Hull and Swansea, look to be separating themselves from the others, in a bad way.  Note that there are seven teams between 34 and 37 points, covering 10th through 16th in the table.

Last week, I suggested that Everton-Leicester might be the most fun match of the week.  Hey-ho, hope you got to see the Toffees 4-2 win.  The first half might have been the most entertaining 45 minutes of football this year.  Everton scored one minute in but found themselves down 1-2 by the 10 minute mark.  Goals by Lukaku and Jagielka gave Everton a 3-2 lead by halfttime.  Okay, second half was no where near as exciting but still a great match overall.  What do they say?  Something about a blind squirrel...


Whither the Blues

So touched that La Liga snob fan Michael B was wondering what was up with my Football Manager Chester Blues.  We've been a bit unsteady since clinching the EPL title.  A couple draws, a loss to Chelsea.  I have been giving younger players some match time and the players seem a bit lethargic.  Even the fans gave me a pass after the loss to Chelsea - something like "we're disappointed but hey, we're EPL champions."  Sounds like a collective hangover in Chester.  We can't get too out of form as Chester will take on Arsenal at Wembley for the FA Cup Final.


Maintaining Low Expectations

Most of the Championship Division matches are Friday this week.  Fully expect Huddersfield to handle Preston North End at home while Newcastle will likely struggle at home to Leeds.  They are a decent side but I'm still holding out for a draw.  All the Championship sides have a quick turnaround and play again on Easter Monday.  Newcastle are away to Ipswich while Huddersfield travel to Derby; that's a slight advantage for the Magpies.

Best EPL action looks to be Manchester United hosting Chelsea Sunday at 11 (NBCSN).  The Red Devils' habit of getting draws when they should be winning has left them four behind Man City for fourth (though with a game in hand) but not sure this is where they make up ground.  Tottenham have Bournemouth (7:30 Saturday NBCSN), Liverpool is at West Brom (Sunday 8:30 NBCSN) and Man City travel to Southampton (feature match 12:30 on Saturday NBC); not slam dunks but certainly winnable fixtures.  We'll see what's up with Arsenal as they are on the road again, this time to relegation-threatened Middlesbrough.  Should be easy for the Gunners but that doesn't seem to be a word in their vocabulary these days.

I might look in on Crystal Palace-Leicester at 10 am Saturday (NBCSN).  Sam Allardyce seems to have had a rocky honeymoon but the marriage seems fine.  Crystal Palace managed only four points in his first eight matches but have five wins in their last six.  Craig Shakespeare had a dream honeymoon with five straight EPL wins (plus a Champions League victory); but Leicester lost last week to Everton and went down 0-1 to Atletico Madrid in this week's Champions League action.  Both sides are just a few points away from safety so this might be a wide open affair.

And the Union host NYCFC at Talen Energy Friday night at 7 pm.  Continuing with the low expectations theme, I'm hoping for a draw.

Magic Numbers

Wow, a pile of results and me swamped with work for the first time in months.  Yeah, yeah, I know. #Semi-retiredOldPeopleProblems.  I'll do my best to make some sense out of the week.


When Was His Last Recertification?

Newcastle got the two wins we were looking for but neither came easily.  On Saturday, Wigan played the Magpies tough, leveling the match at 1-1 in the 50th minute.  But Matt Ritchie came through with the game winner minutes later to send the St. James' Park faithful home happy.  Brighton won but Huddersfield went down at home to Burton Albion.

Matt Ritchie - Newcastle player of the year?

Wednesday was just plain wacky.  With Burton Albion parking the bus, goals were going to be tough.  But a Ritchie PK in the 29th minute looked like the break Newcastle needed.  But what's this?  Kevin Stroud has taken away the goal and awarded Burton a free kick.  Chaos reigns.  He confers with the fourth official.  Play resumes with the indirect free kick.  But what was the infraction?  If it was encroachment by Newcastle, the PK would be retaken.  Play goes on.  Newcastle finally get a goal in the 68th minute (Ritchie again!), then hang on for the win.

There are certain infractions for which the kick is not retaken including kicking the ball backwards, someone other than the identified kicker taking the attempt, the kicker touching the ball a second time with no intervening touch by another player and the kicker feinting after completing the run up. Following on line I was thinking that Ritchie had been cited for the last infraction in that list.  But after the match , the depth of the mistake was revealed.  Stroud had indeed cited a Newcastle player for encroachment.  As apologies flowed from Stroud and his crew, PGMOL released a statement that Ritchie should have been allowed to retake the kick, as the rules clearly require. The fact that none of the four members of the crew got this right is staggering.  This is not something difficult or an esoteric aspect of the rules.  I swear it's been on every recertification test I've ever taken.  An article including the PGMOL statement available here.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Ritchie would have made the retake. Also, this was another Newcastlish performance against an inferior side.  But they head into the weekend one up on Brighton and 10 points up on Huddersfield.  Close enough now that we can start to calculate a meaningful magic number.  If Huddersfield runs the table, they will have 95 points.  Newcastle need 11 points in their final six matches to equal that.  They would likely win the tiebreaker given the massive goal differential favoring the Magpies.  So we're looking for any combination of points won by Newcastle or dropped by Huddersfield that total 11.  The window to the ledge remains closed.


Ndidi Did

Leicester won their fourth and fifth consecutive matches and have moved up to 11th in the table, eight points clear of the relegation zone so Craig Shakespeare's honeymoon continues.  Check out this awesome strike from Wilfred Ndidi (this week's YouTubeableMoment) in the Foxes 2-0 win over Stoke.  Not such a good weekend for Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Swansea.  Sunderland lost two more games and the only points Middlebrough and Swansea picked up came from their 0-0 draw; that actually was a pretty decent match to watch with both sides looking fully aware of the relegation implications.

Marquee matches by and large did not disappoint.  The Man City-Arsenal 2-2 draw was compelling enough though neither could really afford a draw right now.  Arsenal at least got a win over West Ham and are not out of Champions League contention yet.  Chelsea-Man City was good too; Chelsea's 2-1 win keeps some distance from Tottenham but just added to Man City's woes.  My favorite match though was Tuesday's Man United-Everton clash.  The right level of "malevolence" according to Jon Champion.  Indeed it did play like a derby.  Everton led 1-0 for most of the match but even the most ardent Man United hater would have to say the 1-1 draw was a fair result, even if the equalizer came on PK in the 94th minute.  Surprise of the weekend was easily Crystal Palace 2-1 over Chelsea - at Stamford Bridge no less.  That loss allowed Spurs, who won both their matches, to move within seven of the Blues.


Shades of Ted Lasso (Hi-oh Three Points)

Check out Harry Arter's bad awful PK late against Southampton.  To be fair, you can't see that the turf gave way under his plant foot.  But wow, he really skyed that one.

You gotta git it in to get three points.  One point.






No Service No Goals

The Union's Jay Simpson was practically invisible in Saturday's loss to DC United.  I'm pretty sure it's not his fault; nobody got him the ball.  Pretty tough to score without service.  This match was practically a repeat of the Orlando game.  Down 0-2 for much of the match, the Union came alive at around 70 minutes, got a goal and then came really close to leveling things in the final minutes.  But in the end, it's just another loss.  This analysis from SoccerAmerica sums up the problems fairly well.  Still early but things are not going according to plan so far.


Tepid TV

Though at this point, almost every match has implications for the league title, qualification for Europe or relegation, this weekend's fixtures look decidedly underwhelming.  Watford's a good side and Spurs should not be overconfident but not sure I'll make it to the 7:30 kickoff Saturday on NBCSN.  Other top table matches include Chelsea at Bournmouth (12:30 NBC), Man City hosting Hull (10 on NBCSN), Liverpool at Stoke (10 on CNBC), Man United at Sunderland (8:30 Sunday on NBCSN) and Arsenal at Crystal Palace (3pm Monday on NBCSN).  See what I mean?  Most fun match of the weekend might be Everton-Leicester at Goodison Park on Sunday at 11 (NBCSN).  Leicester will be attempting to go six for six during the honeymoon of their new manager while Everton clearly have aspirations for Europe football next year.

In Championship action, all three top clubs are on the road.  Newcastle play Sheffield Wednesday Saturday; this could will be a tough one for the Magpies because, well, every match seems like a tough one these days.  Brighton are on the road to QPR on Friday while Huddersfield travel to Nottingham Forest.  Should be wins for both.

The Union get Portland at home on Saturday.  Ugh, sure it's back in the friendly confines of Talen Energy Stadium but Portland are really good.  Sorry to say but a draw would be a good result here.  The Red Bulls, smarting after a 1-4 smacking by Houston, are on the road to Orlando.

With this list of fixtures, the Masters golf tournament may be your better bet for sports entertainment this weekend.  Just kidding.  No reason you can't do both.