Stumbling Towards the Hex

A decidedly mixed set of results for the USMNT, another injury for Newcastle, and the passing of a legend. Yes it was another week where the good news mostly came from Football Manager.


Splitting with Guatemala

Is not a good way to ensure advancement to the next round of World Cup qualifying and even worse, suggests a bumpy road assuming we get to the Hex.  In this round of qualifying there are three groups of four teams with the top two advancing the final round (lovingly referred to as the Hexagonal because there are six teams).  As Chris K has pointed out, the margin for error in this round is actually smaller because you only have six games (two against each of the others in your group) as opposed to 10 in the Hex.

The draw against Trinidad and Tabasco was bad enough but the 0-2 loss to Guatemala on Friday was much worse.  You can't say they didn't deserve to lose that match; there was nothing redeeming I saw in that performance.  The Friday loss meant that Tuesday's return match was virtually a must win; a loss or even a draw could have left others in control of the US chances of advancing.  Fortunately they delivered a resounding 4-0 win.

The Sirius shows were filled with analysis of the team's woes.  Line-ups and tactics (i.e. Klinsmann) were roundly criticized.  I have been a defender of Klinsmann but I must admit I was puzzled by how many athletes were playing out of position in Friday's match; yes there were many key injuries/scratches (Besler, Johnson, etc.) and other players were involved in the U-23 team's (failed) last ditched effort to make the Olympics but I'm not sure that explains all of the decisions.  Certainly, players weren't out of natural positions on Tuesday even though the injury situation was unchanged and the U-23s had a game as well and look at the result (the fact that it was Guatemala at home aside).

Then there were discussions on the inability of US Soccer to identify and develop quality players; this criticism was directed more at the administrative level and Sunil Gulati, the president of the US Soccer Federation but also at Klinsmann. This rings true to some extent; it does often seem like our players just aren't good enough.  Somebody pointed out that for all his ability, DeAndre Yedlin's second touch is a tackle.  Ouch.

But maybe we asking for something that can't happen, at least not yet.  Ray Hudson was sort of alluding to it on one of the shows.  Let's face it, at best soccer is probably the fourth choice as a career for a talented US athlete.  That simply isn't the case in almost every other country in the world.  Had he been born in, say Costa Rica, Steph Curry would be creating havoc as a winger, not making unworldly three pointers.  The strongest evidence I can offer on this point is the US Women's National Team.  We do have some of the best women players in the world and we regularly compete for World Cup and Olympic titles, so obviously we are replacing the top players as they age out.  Same country but consistently better results.  What's different?  No NBA, NFL, and MLB getting first dibs on the best athletes.

Of course that doesn't mean the issue still isn't identifying and developing talent but accepting this reality might result in changes in how we do things.  And I'll admit I haven't worked this line of thought all the way through yet but hey, if you can't put half-baked theories in a blog, what's the point?


RIP Johan Cruyff

Last week's edition was already to the printer when we got the news that soccer legend Johan Cruyff had passed away.  I was listening to Sirius just as the announcement came out and heard Ray Hudson choke up on the radio as he tried to speak of what Cruyff meant to the game.  A very touching moment. I don't feel qualified to write about the details; I only knew that he was more than just an awesome player, responsible for a broader outlook on what the game meant and how it should be played.  Check out this article in the Economist for thoughts from someone more qualified to talk about the man.



Another Newcastle Injury

Jeebus this feels like "The Martian" where every time Matt Damon solves a problem, something else goes wrong. This time it's keeper Rob Eliot blowing out his ACL in Ireland friendly (another reason to dislike friendlies). The relatively untested Karl Darlow will be in goal for the rest of the season.  I can recall his (only?) performance against West Brom - not awful but very shaky.  Perfect.

Scuttlebutt is that Benitez will not stick around if Newcastle are relegated.  I'm with Ray Hudson on this; if you want to prove you're a great manager, turn around a sinking franchise like Newcastle instead of going to a side that regularly competes for Champions League spots.


Aston Villa Let Down Their Garde

With seven matches to go and relegation pretty much assured, Aston Villa sacked manager Remi Garde.  Mostly likely a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.  Not sure why you'd do it now.  Garry Monk has been mentioned as a replacement.


Chester to Euro Semi-final

With all the "good" news elsewhere, once again the virtual world of Football Manager comes the rescue.  First, again using mostly second teamers, we beat Man United 1-0 to take the Europa Cup quarter final by an aggegrate 3-1.  The fact that we now face AC Milan in the semis in the middle of an already overcrowded schedule is beside the point - we'll burn that bridge when we get to it.  We then feasted on three bottom table teams, beating Wolves, Birmingham and Portsmouth in rapid succession.  We're now four points clear of Man City with six to go and two games in hand.  Piece of cake right?  I will allow that a top three finish looks likely but the schedule favors Man City for the top spot.  They'll likely win all four of their remaining matches.  Our schedule has four road games and features all top to mid-table sides.  Certainly doable but by no means assured.


Questions for the Weekend

League play resumes with many critical questions to be answered.

Can Newcastle make a stand against Norwich?  A loss is basically the end.  A draw is not great but there are places to recover those points.  Understanding that relegation battles can generate some interesting football, this match is on USA at 10 am on Saturday (welcome to DST England).

How does Leicester handle a more capable opponent than Newcastle or Crystal Palace?  The Foxes host Southampton, a side with European aspirations that plays attractive football; this should be well worth watching on Sunday morning at 8:30 on NBCSN.  I have this as a draw in my model.

Will Tottenham keep pace or gain on Leicester?  Spurs travel to Anfield to face a slightly confusing Liverpool squad.  Not an easy match but Tottenham will want a result here.  I have the match as a draw but could see Spurs taking all three points.  This is the featured match at 12:30 Saturday on NBC.

Will Arsenal build off of the Everton win?  They have Watford at home and should get all three points but can't come in overconfident against the pesky Hornets.  You can see this one at 10 am Saturday on NBCSN.

What happens to the chase pack?  Man City is on the road to Bournemouth - not a slam dunk for the Citizens.  Man United host Everton; I have this as a draw but wonder if there is any spillover from the Toffees awful outing against Arsenal.  West Ham have a chance to tighten the race up, hosting Crystal Palace.

Do you like car crashes?  If so, tune in at 7:45 Saturday morning on NBCSN to watch Aston Villa host Chelsea.  Hard to imagine anything good coming out of this fixture.

Are the Union better than last year?  A road match at 5 pm on Saturday against the Chicago Fire will be a good test.  If we are truly better, this should be at least a draw.  You can see this match on TCN.

Does El Classico have the same cachet this year?  I'm hearing that the Barcelona - Real Madrid contest may not have the same bite as usual given the standings.  I'll leave that to our La Liga experts.