What'd I Miss?

Didn’t see a minute of live soccer this weekend so I will have to rely on highlight reels and accounts from BFS readers in discussing recent events.

I Almost Walked Alone

Strolling down the street in Aix-en-Provence I caught a glimpse of a TV screen in a bar showing the players coming out of the tunnel.  What’s this?  It’s Anfield and the Liverpool-Newcastle match is on live.  Alas, the travel itinerary did not include a two hour break to watch soccer so we continued on. But it was hard to walk away, even though I would have been clearly on my own to get back to Saillans had I stayed.

Ah, probably for the best.  I would have been extremely disheartened by Daniel Sturridge’s goal in the just the second minute and ready to leave when Liverpool doubled the lead at 30 minutes.  Southampton disaster all over again.  On the other hand, the patrons of said bar might have thought me strange had I been there when Mignolet gifted the Magpies a lifeline with a tepid challenge on a cross Cisse cut the deficit with a header at 48 minutes; they would have thought me daft after Colback’s deflected shot leveled things at 66 minutes.  Not seeing the whole thing I can’t comment on whether this is a fair result (it most certainly was).   Mox nix as we used to say - matters not was our translation - it’s an unexpected point, especially on the road.  Plus, they rallied from an 0-2 deficit.  Apologies to Rafa, maybe he is making a difference.

Failure to Launch

Unfortunately Newcastle’s extra point was matched by Sunderland as they held Arsenal to a 0-0 draw.  Can this be right?  Possession advantage was 71-29 for the Gunners?  Other stats were more even so I don’t know what’s up.  Except that we were kind of counting on Arsenal taking all three points.  You know, if two of the last three Gunners’ opponents weren’t Norwich and Aston Villa, we might be talking about Arsenal failing to make the top four.  They might still be in trouble for an automatic Champions League berth.  Wonder how loud the dump Wenger volume will get if that happens.

Proud History What Future

I actually forgot that Aston Villa had a match this weekend (a fact that kind of summarizes the season) and only realized I hadn't watched it when I looked to see all the scores of the other matches I did not care to watch.  I spared myself and only watched a 5 minute highlight reel, but I think I can sum it up with one image:

Protest signs turned into airplanes littered the grounds once again (Birmingham Mail)

It's definitely all Lescott's fault (Reuters)

The entire match appeared to be one long protest of the Villans ineptitude, which is what I expect for the remaining matches as well.  Hopefully things don't turn nasty - I already caught a glimpse of fans throwing protest signs into the goal, trying to hit Guzan while he was making a save.  I do hope that more people attempt to come up with amusing personalized protest signs, like the guys who decided that Lescott was the reason for the team's failures (he kind of is, by the way [Ed note: Would it be more accurate to say he is symbolic of the team's failures?]).  If I can't have a decent team, then maybe I can least have some creativity and comedy from the protests.  Oh, and Southampton won the match 4-2, but nobody really cares about that.

Anything but Routine

Last week, I suggested that that the 4 most crucial matches to the bottom and top of the table would be rather unexciting and routine.  Steve already covered the 2 surprise draws at the bottom, and with one shocker at the top, my prediction could only have been slightly more wrong.  Leicester was the only top team that took care of business, absolutely smashing Swansea to the tune of 4-0.  Looks like that Vardy dive and suspension were basically meaningless.  Spurs came out firing against a lifeless West Brom, but didn't quite make the most of their chances - both Kane and Alli hit the post in the first half and Lamela hit one in the second- though they did take a 1-0 lead (on a Dawson OG) into the break.  A different West Brom team appeared from the tunnel in the second half and with 20 minutes to play, Lloris did his best Mingolet impression and made a weak challenge on a corner, allowing Dawson to make amends with a header into an open net.  Given 20 minutes to essentially save their season, Spurs could not find a winner and dropped 2 points - the looks on the player's faces after the final whistle showed they knew what a catastrophe this result was.  It leaves Leicester up 7 points with 3 to play - any Spurs loss or Foxes win means the trophy heads to Leicester.       

It’s Easier to Win If You Keep Eleven on the Field

Didn’t even get to see highlight but not to worry as BFS Union Fan Club President Jeff H was there in person and provides this account:

Boys looked solid and NY seemed to have no ideas in the 2nd half. No Pirlo either! Both goals were the result of good build up an Pontius and CJ being where they should be and taking care of business.  Barnetta played 75? and was awesome. Gaddis took Fabinho's LB spot 2nd half and def is keeping the pressure up for playing time. No heroics from Andre required this time and no red cards. Also Ilsinho made an appearance and looked crafty and Brazilian. Had a few nice forays towards the goal. 

Thanks Jeff.  I remember the first time seeing Ilsinho and thinking did the Union manage to get the only Brazilian alive who didn't have dribbling skills?  Turns out it was just a bad opening day, he's been fine since then.

Les Violette’s

I must correct myself - I did see live soccer this weekend.  Mackenzie’s team took the field Sunday morning and, well, they took the field and we’ll leave it at that.  Great to watch her in action again plus we got to see how Mackenzie, despite being the only non-Frenchwoman on the roster, had become the heart and soul of the team.  So much so that the end of season party on Saturday was really a surprise party for Mackenzie to thank her for being a part of the team.  Even the mayor was there to present her with a signed copy of the history of Aouste.  Good stuff. 

Champions League Update

So Michael B won't have to comment -  Atletico Madrid stunned Bayern Munich 1-0 at home in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final.  Check out the winning goal by Saul, easily this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The other semi-final match was an incredibly boring 0-0 draw between Man City and a Ronaldoless Real Madrid.  Man City is likely in trouble as that tie heads back to Spain. 

Down to the Nub

Tottenham pretty much has to win out (and without Alli due to three match ban for punching a West Brom player), starting with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Monday night.  Leicester must travel to Old Trafford to face a Man United side that might still be holding out hope for a Champions League berth.  The BFS predicator model has both matches as draws, which would clinch the title for the Foxes.

Down at the bottom, Newcastle welcome Alan Pardew and Crystal Palace for a Saturday match at 10 am (USA); a home win here could be enough to get the Magpies clear of the relegation zone.  That is assuming Arsenal do their job and beat Norwich at home and Stoke take care of Sunderland.  None of these results are a sure thing.  Perhaps NBC gets the "thrill" of the relegation battle - all three of these matches are televised.  

I'll be at Talen Energy Stadium Saturday to see the top-of-the-table Union take on San Jose.

Judgement Day Arrives....Finally

Steve is busy romping around the European countryside, leaving me to cover the action of the week.  Naturally, I had 13 hours of yard work to do over the weekend, which severely limited and/or delayed my viewing.  But never fear - we will persist and bring you our patented half sarcastic and half pessimistic brand of commentary.

Last in, First Out

As far as Aston Villa are concerned, the commentary will skew a little farther towards pessimism.  The Villans were at least afforded the chance to delay their own fate by Sunderland's (critical and apparently dominant) win over Norwich earlier in the day, a fact I did not even learn until moments prior to kickoff.  Did their imminent demise inspire the team to put forth a herculean effort and pull off the massive upset of Manchester United at Old Trafford?  What do you think?

The goal that sent the Villans to the Championship

They allowed this somewhat decent, somewhat soft goal in the 32nd minute and never looked like they had an answer.  A brief flurry around the 80th minute sparked by Gestede coming on gave a fleeting image of hope, but was short lived and did not provide an equalizer.  So after months of knowing their fate but not actually knowing, Aston Villa are officially the first team relegated after being the last team to survive last year.  They are still possibly relevant to the remainder of the season - though that Newcastle match has now lost at least half of it's intrigue - but I can't imagine their matches will be anything worth watching since they couldn't muster any energy before becoming lame ducks.  I'll autopsy their season in the coming weeks and assess my future with the club, but let's just say that this season was a bit of a disappointment.


Booked for Simulation Indeed

You know all those 1-0 wins that Leicester has been wracking up (including last week's disguised as a 2-0)?  Yeah, this contest was not one of those.  A West Ham header hit both posts in the 2nd minute, Vardy scored in the 34th on a classic counter, and things appeared to be sailing along smoothly.  Then Vardy decided to throw the Foxes into the deep end (see that diving pun?  Sweet, I know).  Even though I gave up tracking the bookings for simulation across the league a little while ago, I don't think I was going to miss this one.

The dive that changed the EPL title race?

I have no idea what he thought he was doing here, especially knowing he was was already on a yellow.  Even if the refereeing was rather inconsistent throughout the match (more on this in a second) this was so blatant that he deserved his fate.  Leicester were reduced to 10 men with 35 minutes to play and a slim 1-0 lead, but they have made their living holding 1-0 leads for weeks now.

"Let me just step right in front of you....WHEEEEEE!"

That was not to be the case today, as the Foxes held out for 25 minutes before allowing a PK, which was converted by Andy Carroll.  3 minutes later, West Ham struck again on a fabulous volley to take a 2-1 lead.  In the 90th minute, Huth was clearly dragged down in the box but was not given the call.  Finally, on the last attack of the game, Carroll turned villian by conceding a PK right on the edge of the box, which was converted by Ulloa to finish off the 2-2 draw.

The various PK calls/non-calls felt borderline random to me in this match.  The first West Ham PK was definitely correct, but the same situation happened several times earlier and was not called.  The missed PK on Huth was very similar to the one given to West Ham while the PK given to Leicester looked like minimal contact to me.  Counting the Vardy dive, I have the ref at 2/4 on PK calls, which is not great.

All told Leicester scraped by with a point, which doesn't appear to change the math a whole lot at this juncture, but could turn out to be critical in a few weeks.  Equally important could be that Vardy misses the next match at Swansea, which appears to the most winnable of their remaining fixtures.

Bottom of the Table

Apparently Newcastle decided to grow some stones at just the right moment, snagging 4 points in fairly convincing fashion.  Steve did find time to watch their matches and adds:

This was St. James Park as it should be.  50,000 lunatics driving a suddenly interested Newcastle side on.  Even with the renewed (wait that should be newly found) passion, the match with Swansea was still in doubt late.  Up 1-0, the Magpies generously afforded the Swans numerous opportunities to draw level, which they politely declined deposited in row M. Soon there were two more Newcastle tallies and the match was no longer in doubt.  That's two points we didn't have in the model.

Sunderland's aforementioned stomping of Norwich tightened up the relegation battle as well, leaving Newcastle trailing Sunderland by 2 and Norwich by 3 after the weekend.  Sunderland still have an all important extra game in hand over Norwich and could be in the driver's seat if they get 3 points from it (though it's against Everton, so don't count on it).

Newcastle also had a match in hand over Norwich as well...but it was against Man City so it wasn't like we really had an extra match.  Except, Newcastle continued the passionate play on Tuesday at home against the Citizens.  Of course they coughed up a goal early (Aguero was so far offside it's hard to believe the AR missed that one) but the diminutive Dutchman, Vurnon Anita, making a resurgence under Benitez, leveled things at 30 minutes.  The rest of the night was a taut back and forth with Newcastle having the upper hand but 1-1 was the result.   Another point we didn't have in the model.  New prediction has Sunderland escaping by one point with 32 over Newcastle and Norwich at 31.   BTW, speaking of Benitez, I sort of dissed him last week for the lack of urgency we saw in the Norwich and Southampton matches. That was clearly not the case on Saturday or Tuesday so maybe he's figured something out.

On a related note, it seems increasingly increasingly likely that the team to finish 19th will have double the point total of Villa.

Top of the Table

Too many games, mixed with too many story lines and too much yard work means I barely followed most of the remaining action.  I saw Tottenham's routine 4-0 win over Stoke.  Spurs look they could drop 3-5 goals on anyone right now, which is definitely a scary proposition, especially considering their relatively weak final schedule.  Manchester City cruised past Chelsea on the back of an Aguero hat trick before the draw with Newcastle.  Arsenal drew with Crystal Palace and won at West Brom, while the other side of Manchester banked two wins to draw within a single point of the top 4 (though Arsenal has a game in hand).  West Ham also earned 4 points to remain a lingering if not totally scary threat for a Champion's League spot.  The "Race for the Title", as NBC are fond of saying, is definitely down to two, but the Champion's League spots have 4-6 contenders, depending on your level of optimism.

The weekend did not change anything for Leicester and Tottenham in the model;  West Ham-Leicester was a draw in my forecast (though maybe not as crazy as it played out) and Tottenham was always going to beat Stoke.  So, Leicester are still winners by three.  Man City's failure to get 3 at St. James Park effectively ends their chances though, and though Arsenal are not technically out, they are out of it after that draw to Crystal Palace. 

The 4 most crucial matches of this weekend seem fairly one-sided: Newcastle traveling to Anfield, Sunderland hosting Arsenal, Leicester welcoming Swansea to the King Power, and Tottenham vs West Brom at White Hart Lane, with Norwich's match against Watford postponed due to FA Cup semifinal action.  Of course anything could happen, but I don't expect a whole lot of movement at either end of the table this weekend.

And Another Thing

I figured I'd be able to catch at least some of the action on NBC Live Stream.  But no, it doesn't work here in France.  What's up with that.  So I explored other streaming options but was worried about catching some kind of Euro virus.  Eventually I found an acceptable choice with a small but clear screen and was able to see most of the Swansea and Man City matches. 


Undermanned Union Again

Didn't see that match (I think it was on at 4 am here in Arles) but the Union fell to Seattle after going down a man early in the second half - Alberg this time.  I saw the second yellow and it looked deserved.  Still, it was a close match and the Union lost just 1-2 on the road in Seattle.  Red Bulls took another loss, this time in Colorado.

This Is Not Your Father's Union

With the situation rapidly deteriorating at Newcastle-on-Tyne, we choose to turn our attention to Chester-on-Delaware, where things are going much better.  The weekend was pretty much status quo at the top of the EPL table and more good news from the virtual city of Chester

Who Is This New Union?

For about 90 minutes, the Union had played Orlando to a draw and that would have been a fair result.   In years past, however, that never would have been the end of the story.  No, we would have a found a way to throw away that precious point.  But apparently this is a new era.  The first un-Union thing they did was to score in the 90th minute on a clinical free kick from Tranquillo Barnetta that started three to five feet wide of the goal but curled just inside the right post.  We'll make it the YouTubeable Moment of the week, seen here from the Sons of Ben perspective.The second un-Union thing they did was to protect this lead.  Not that they didn’t try to give it away.  Less than 30 seconds after going ahead, a very typical Union defensive breakdown allowed Orlando a clear shot on goal.  Fortunately, we have perhaps the most athletic keeper in the MLS and Blake made a marvelous save, leaping high to his right to push the ball away.  Three points from a match we would have surely lost in previous years.  Results aside, this is an eminently more watchable team than any previous edition.

Not Unexpected But Disappointing Anyway

We were under no illusions that Newcastle would come back from the coast with anything but their tails between their collective legs.  Still, it was distressing to watch how easily Southampton took apart the Magpies.  An early goal made it clear that it would be a long afternoon and the 3-1 score tells you all you need to know.  Well, not exactly.  Many, including the more pessimistic Newcastle blogs, have been very complimentary of Benitez even with a lack of results.  To some extent I can agree - how quickly can you expect him to turn around five plus years of mistakes.  Yet, the Magpies continue to not show up in the first half of matches critical to their first division survival; to me some of that has to come down to the manager.  Maybe I’m being unrealistic but I was hoping for a better fight under Benitez.

Fortunately nothing changed at the bottom.  Aston Villa went down to Bournemouth, Sunderland fell to Leicester and Crystal Palace somehow found a way to stop Norwich.  But time is running out.

Time is actually up for Villa.  If the Villans fail to win any of their final 5 matches OR Norwich secure one measly point in their 5 matches, they are officially relegated (there are other scenarios that have them relegated, but this is the easiest).  Even if both of those things were to happen and Sunderland and Newcastle remained at or below 31 points, the Villans would need to recover a massive goal differential - something around 20 goals.  Not that any of this matters because they have obviously been going down for months, but there is still the finality of knowing for certain.  I'll come to grips with that when it actually happens -  why worry about something today when you can worry about it tomorrow?    

More Compelling Stuff at the Top

Well sort of.  Leicester’s 2-0 win over Sunderland will not go down as a classic.  I will say that the Black Cats showed more heart in their effort against Leicester than anything we saw from Newcastle.  At least they are going down fighting.  Tottenham couldn’t break through against Man United until the 70th minute.  Alli’s goal opened the floodgates and two more tallies sent the White Hart Lane faithful home happy.  Man City stumbled early against West Brom but righted matters quickly enough to come away with a 2-1 win.  The best match of week easily was the classic West Ham-Arsenal London derby - the last time the two will square off at Upton Park as the Hammers move into Olympic Stadium.  Arsenal was off to a 2-0 lead and neutrals were wondering what happened to pitched battle we were hoping for.  Fortunately (though not for Gunners fans), the Bunned One - Andy Carroll - tallied two before the half ended and added another shortly into the second half.  To their credit Arsenal did not fade and grabbed a draw with Koscielny's goal in the 70th minute.  But the draw (correctly predicted in the BFS model) was a blow to the Gunners title chances.


Chester Rolls On

Not the prettiest of football but with the schedule so crowded (four matches in eight days) we were in survival mode.  First, there was a 0-0 draw at Chelsea (yes, we parked the bus) that eliminated them from the title chase.  Next was a trip to Brittania Stadium for a 0-0 versus Stoke (yes we parked the bus) that eliminated all but Man City from contention.  Then a trip to Milan for the second leg of the Europa Cup semi against AC Milan.  We did not park the bus but we played entirely second teamers.  The 1-2 defeat was enough for us to win 4-3 on aggregate and send us to the final against Bayern.  We closed out with a solid 2-0 win at home against Tottenham.  We only need one point from the final three matches (Newcastle, Aston Villa and Sunderland) or anything less than wins by Man City in their matches against Wolves and Newcastle and the EPL crown is ours.


The Weekend

Limited viewing for me though not expecting any sympathy as we are in the south of France.  The BFS model calls for Newcastle to draw against Swansea; but this is one of the matches where the Magpies must get all three points if they hope to catch Norwich.

At the top, Leicester have a home match against West Ham; the chase pack is hoping this is one of the stumbles for the Foxes, without which there is no chance to catch Leicester.  Tottenham are on the road to Stoke - not an easy match but there is no room for anything less than a W.  Arsenal, really up against it now, face Crystal Palace at home and should be able to get three points.  Man City must travel to Stamford Bridge and must get a result.

Norwich and Sunderland face off at Carrow Road.  Newcastle are hoping for a draw here, as a win for either side may put one of these two teams out of reach.  Aston Villa are on the road to Man United and points seem unlikely and are pretty much irrelevant anyway.

On the MLS side, the Union face a tough test in Seattle on the road on Sunday.  The Red Bulls early season troubles continued with an 0-2 loss at San Jose on Wednesday; they are still on the road this weekend against Colorado.

Somebody going to watch these matches for me?

Next Stop, Championship Division

Another stoppage time loss for Newcastle; this one to relegation rival Norwich leaves the Magpies six points in from safety and precious few opportunities to make up ground.  Aston Villa's match was the car wreck we envisioned and the Union spent much of the day a man down and lost.  Please tell me Chester did okay.


Mitro's On Fire, Your Defense Is Terrified

True, but our defense is terrifying.  Three times on Saturday Newcastle managed to let Norwich take the lead.  The first was a set piece just as the first half was ending.  Then, a scant three minutes after Mitrovic had leveled things at 71 minutes, the defense didn't close down Mbokani and he fired a shot past Darlow.  But the final dagger came after Mitro had converted a PK in the 86th minute and Newcastle showed some interest in taking the lead.  Right.  In the 93rd minute, the defense failed to close down Olsson and his fine shot beat Darlow and the three points went to Norwich.

A draw would not have been completely unjustified and Newcastle did display moments of heart.  But for such a critical match they came out flat and certainly didn't play like a team facing Premier League extinction.  The second half was better but still a notch below where it needed to be.  And even had they managed a draw, that would have left the Magpies with serious ground to make up.

The math is extremely daunting at this point.  I now have Newcastle coming up four points short.  Where to make those up?  Well, I only have Norwich getting one more point (a draw with Sunderland) so that can only get worse.  I have Newcastle getting draws against Crystal Palace, Swansea, and Aston Villa; turning two of those into wins gets the four points. Points from Southampton, Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham matches would help but don't seem likely.

Are they playing better under Benitez?  Maybe but the first half against Norwich left me unimpressed.  He doesn't seem likely to stay.  I'll give him a pass if he leaves to take over as the manager for Spain.  But a club like Valencia?

On a positive note, even disasters like this game have their lighter moments.  Check out this "tickle incident" between Steven Naismith and Daryl Janmaat; in many countries they are now considered married, in others, felons.  What's that Emily?  You say he had it coming?


Car Crash for Aston Villa

As suggested, nothing good came out of Aston Villa's home match against Chelsea.  Fans littered the field with torn up protest signs and walked out in protest late in the 0-4 beating.  Actually, there was a positive aspect;  American Matt Miazga made his EPL debut and did very well thank you.  Hopefully this means he's going to get some regular playing time.  Or was it just because the opponent was Aston Villa?

The worst part about this to me was actually the first Chelsea goal.  Look, we all knew Chelsea was going to win, and likely by a lot.  But Aston Villa were playing decently well and at least showing a little spirit to start the match.  Then Chelsea scored on a weak shot (which was also right at Guzan) that was majorly deflected.  Then the flood gates opened.  It's not like we were ever going to win, but do we also have to the luck go against us as well?  Can't Chelsea at least really earn it?  I guess not.    


Somewhere Where the Sun Is Shining Bright

All kinds of points at the top of the table.  Leicester ground out another 1-0 win, this time against Euro contender Southampton.  Arsenal (4-0 over Watford), Man City (4-0 over West Brom) and Man United (1-0 over Everton) all got three points.  Tottenham played well but Liverpool at Anfield is never easy so a 1-1 draw isn't awful, even if it drops Spurs seven points behind the Foxes.  Elsewhere, Crystal Palace cut into West Ham's momentum, after Kouyate's red card in the 67th minute left the Hammers a man down the Eagles took advantage to grab a 2-2 draw and steal a point at Upton Park.

The BFS exclusive model now shows Leicester winning the league by three point over Tottenham. The worse news for Spurs fans is I have them with five wins and draw in the final six matches.  Looks like it will require stumbles from Leicester; I have them with wins over Sunderland (A), Swansea (H) and Everton (H) plus draws against Man United (A), Chelsea(A) and West Ham (H).  Certainly some chances to drop points but not obvious ones.


We Do Not Dream

Claudio Ranieri wrote a piece for the Players' Tribune in which he attempts to explain the Leicester mentality for this season.  In most sports, I assume most players do a lot of listening to their manager but don't exactly "buy into the system".  In this instance, it is impossible to deny that the Foxes bought what Ranieri was selling.  In particular, before the first match of the season, he said this to the players: 

"I want you to play for your teammates. We are a little team, so we have to fight with all our heart, with all our soul. I don’t care the name of the opponent. All I want is for you to fight. If they are better than us, Okay, congratulations. But they have to show us they are better"

I'm not sure there is a description that better fits the way Leicester started the season - by making bigger name teams show them who was better.  Things have obviously changed since then (see the 5 1-0 wins in their previous six games) but it's interesting, for me at least, to see a manager really affect his players this way.


Union Shorthanded

Warren Creavalle's ill-advised challenge earned him a second yellow and a sending off early in the second half.  Chicago scored shortly afterwards.  But the Union frankly looked to be the better side, even down a man.  Twice they hit the crossbar and once the post and always looked capable of leveling the match at any point.  A lost opportunity no doubt but a positive performance given the circumstances.


Smoke and Mirrors

That's all I can figure it is.  Chester hosted AC Milan in the first league of the Europa Cup semi final and bested the Italian side 3-1.  But I played with a squad made up of entirely second teamers and set up in a 4-1-3-2 with a very defensive philosophy.  How did this happen?  Maybe things will be different in next week's away leg; I'll be playing the second string again.  We now have Chelsea away on 4/21, Stoke away on 4/23, and Tottenham at home on 4/26; going to be juggling line ups to keep fresh players on the pitch.


Getting Down To It

Sunday morning has the good stuff.  First Leicester travels to the Stadium of We're Ahead of Newcastle But Still Going Down to face Sunderland at 8:30; this one might not be a 1-0 win for the Foxes. Then at 11 we have Spurs hosting Man United; pretty close to a must win for Tottenham.  Saturday morning's 7:45 match is London derby probably worth checking out - West Ham hosting Arsenal.  I have the Gunners coming up six point short in the title chase and a win here would cut that to four points.  Man City probably gets to keep pace with the leaders since they'll be hosting West Brom; with DeBruyne's return they've been looking better - even snatching a draw against PSG in Paris despite this U-11 moment.

Down in Relegation Land, Newcastle travel to Southampton; I see no reason to believe the Magpies come home with any points here.  Meanwhile, Norwich are in London to face Crystal Palace. Not sure what delusions I was under when I put this down as a win for the Eagles; Norwich could easily steal a point or three here, which would of course, basically seal Newcastle's fate.  Aston Villa take on Bournemouth; after littering the field and storming out, not sure what's left for Villa fans - not show up all?  A loss (or a Norwich win) would make clinch relegation.

On the MLS side, the Union take on Orlando Friday night at home with a chance to move into first with a win.  The Red Bulls, still struggling, host Sporting KC.

Stumbling Towards the Hex

A decidedly mixed set of results for the USMNT, another injury for Newcastle, and the passing of a legend. Yes it was another week where the good news mostly came from Football Manager.


Splitting with Guatemala

Is not a good way to ensure advancement to the next round of World Cup qualifying and even worse, suggests a bumpy road assuming we get to the Hex.  In this round of qualifying there are three groups of four teams with the top two advancing the final round (lovingly referred to as the Hexagonal because there are six teams).  As Chris K has pointed out, the margin for error in this round is actually smaller because you only have six games (two against each of the others in your group) as opposed to 10 in the Hex.

The draw against Trinidad and Tabasco was bad enough but the 0-2 loss to Guatemala on Friday was much worse.  You can't say they didn't deserve to lose that match; there was nothing redeeming I saw in that performance.  The Friday loss meant that Tuesday's return match was virtually a must win; a loss or even a draw could have left others in control of the US chances of advancing.  Fortunately they delivered a resounding 4-0 win.

The Sirius shows were filled with analysis of the team's woes.  Line-ups and tactics (i.e. Klinsmann) were roundly criticized.  I have been a defender of Klinsmann but I must admit I was puzzled by how many athletes were playing out of position in Friday's match; yes there were many key injuries/scratches (Besler, Johnson, etc.) and other players were involved in the U-23 team's (failed) last ditched effort to make the Olympics but I'm not sure that explains all of the decisions.  Certainly, players weren't out of natural positions on Tuesday even though the injury situation was unchanged and the U-23s had a game as well and look at the result (the fact that it was Guatemala at home aside).

Then there were discussions on the inability of US Soccer to identify and develop quality players; this criticism was directed more at the administrative level and Sunil Gulati, the president of the US Soccer Federation but also at Klinsmann. This rings true to some extent; it does often seem like our players just aren't good enough.  Somebody pointed out that for all his ability, DeAndre Yedlin's second touch is a tackle.  Ouch.

But maybe we asking for something that can't happen, at least not yet.  Ray Hudson was sort of alluding to it on one of the shows.  Let's face it, at best soccer is probably the fourth choice as a career for a talented US athlete.  That simply isn't the case in almost every other country in the world.  Had he been born in, say Costa Rica, Steph Curry would be creating havoc as a winger, not making unworldly three pointers.  The strongest evidence I can offer on this point is the US Women's National Team.  We do have some of the best women players in the world and we regularly compete for World Cup and Olympic titles, so obviously we are replacing the top players as they age out.  Same country but consistently better results.  What's different?  No NBA, NFL, and MLB getting first dibs on the best athletes.

Of course that doesn't mean the issue still isn't identifying and developing talent but accepting this reality might result in changes in how we do things.  And I'll admit I haven't worked this line of thought all the way through yet but hey, if you can't put half-baked theories in a blog, what's the point?


RIP Johan Cruyff

Last week's edition was already to the printer when we got the news that soccer legend Johan Cruyff had passed away.  I was listening to Sirius just as the announcement came out and heard Ray Hudson choke up on the radio as he tried to speak of what Cruyff meant to the game.  A very touching moment. I don't feel qualified to write about the details; I only knew that he was more than just an awesome player, responsible for a broader outlook on what the game meant and how it should be played.  Check out this article in the Economist for thoughts from someone more qualified to talk about the man.



Another Newcastle Injury

Jeebus this feels like "The Martian" where every time Matt Damon solves a problem, something else goes wrong. This time it's keeper Rob Eliot blowing out his ACL in Ireland friendly (another reason to dislike friendlies). The relatively untested Karl Darlow will be in goal for the rest of the season.  I can recall his (only?) performance against West Brom - not awful but very shaky.  Perfect.

Scuttlebutt is that Benitez will not stick around if Newcastle are relegated.  I'm with Ray Hudson on this; if you want to prove you're a great manager, turn around a sinking franchise like Newcastle instead of going to a side that regularly competes for Champions League spots.


Aston Villa Let Down Their Garde

With seven matches to go and relegation pretty much assured, Aston Villa sacked manager Remi Garde.  Mostly likely a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.  Not sure why you'd do it now.  Garry Monk has been mentioned as a replacement.


Chester to Euro Semi-final

With all the "good" news elsewhere, once again the virtual world of Football Manager comes the rescue.  First, again using mostly second teamers, we beat Man United 1-0 to take the Europa Cup quarter final by an aggegrate 3-1.  The fact that we now face AC Milan in the semis in the middle of an already overcrowded schedule is beside the point - we'll burn that bridge when we get to it.  We then feasted on three bottom table teams, beating Wolves, Birmingham and Portsmouth in rapid succession.  We're now four points clear of Man City with six to go and two games in hand.  Piece of cake right?  I will allow that a top three finish looks likely but the schedule favors Man City for the top spot.  They'll likely win all four of their remaining matches.  Our schedule has four road games and features all top to mid-table sides.  Certainly doable but by no means assured.


Questions for the Weekend

League play resumes with many critical questions to be answered.

Can Newcastle make a stand against Norwich?  A loss is basically the end.  A draw is not great but there are places to recover those points.  Understanding that relegation battles can generate some interesting football, this match is on USA at 10 am on Saturday (welcome to DST England).

How does Leicester handle a more capable opponent than Newcastle or Crystal Palace?  The Foxes host Southampton, a side with European aspirations that plays attractive football; this should be well worth watching on Sunday morning at 8:30 on NBCSN.  I have this as a draw in my model.

Will Tottenham keep pace or gain on Leicester?  Spurs travel to Anfield to face a slightly confusing Liverpool squad.  Not an easy match but Tottenham will want a result here.  I have the match as a draw but could see Spurs taking all three points.  This is the featured match at 12:30 Saturday on NBC.

Will Arsenal build off of the Everton win?  They have Watford at home and should get all three points but can't come in overconfident against the pesky Hornets.  You can see this one at 10 am Saturday on NBCSN.

What happens to the chase pack?  Man City is on the road to Bournemouth - not a slam dunk for the Citizens.  Man United host Everton; I have this as a draw but wonder if there is any spillover from the Toffees awful outing against Arsenal.  West Ham have a chance to tighten the race up, hosting Crystal Palace.

Do you like car crashes?  If so, tune in at 7:45 Saturday morning on NBCSN to watch Aston Villa host Chelsea.  Hard to imagine anything good coming out of this fixture.

Are the Union better than last year?  A road match at 5 pm on Saturday against the Chicago Fire will be a good test.  If we are truly better, this should be at least a draw.  You can see this match on TCN.

Does El Classico have the same cachet this year?  I'm hearing that the Barcelona - Real Madrid contest may not have the same bite as usual given the standings.  I'll leave that to our La Liga experts.