G8 Summit at Women's World Cup

It appears that the best predictor of the Women’s World Cup quarterfinalists is membership in the G8. Six of the eight sides (Germany, France, US, Canada, England, and Japan) are in that organization. Compare that to last year’s men’s tournament, in which only two quarterfinalists (Germany and France) were members.

Yes, the US are in that list on the strength of their 2-0 win over Colombia. But at 11 v 11, the match was 0-0 and even a woman up, the US offense struggled. Fortunately the back line and Solo have remained solid and Alex Morgan and Megan Rapinoe had enough moments of quality to carry them through. Morgan's shot was excellent but the Colombian keeper may have been cheating to the middle in anticipation of a cross, allowing Morgan's near post shot to sneak through. Because of previous yellow cards to the starter and a straight red in this match to the back-up, that was the Colombians third string keeper.

The offense still looks slow and mechanical.  They will sorely miss Rapinoe (accumulated yellow cards) against China.  Off of recent form, that match (Friday at 7:30 on Fox) looks to be a deathly boring contest destined to be decided on penalty kicks as both teams have well-organized defenses but are severely lacking creativity on the offensive side.  To my eyes, there are at least three sides – Germany, France and Japan - looking better than the Yanks right now.

The other quarterfinal matches are:

Germany – France (Friday 4 pm on Fox - way to go FIFA – this should have been a semi or the final)

Japan – Australia (Saturday 4 pm FoxSports1)
Canada – England (Saturday 7:30 pm FoxSports1)

Fivethirtyeight has Germany, US, Japan and Canada advancing, with Germany the slight favorite to win the tournament.

Saw the Brazilian coach, after losing 0-1 to Australia, complain that the US had an easier path to the title.  Really dude?  As the 7^th ranked side, you were gifted a bracket that included no team ranked higher than 4^th and lost in the first knockout match against the 10^th ranked team.  The brackets are indeed unfairly weighted – in your favor.

Union Rollercoaster

Contrary to my expectations, the Union did indeed find their mojo out in LA – for about 20 minutes.  But they couldn’t put the ball into the net, then the Galaxy scored against the run of play.  This cycle was repeated throughout the rest of the night and the final ended 5-1 for the west coast team.  The Union were missing both Aristeguieta and LeToux, but Sapong has become the go to scorer anyway, plus the real issue is allowing five goals..  Oy, this is back to being a hard team to watch – the only club in MLS averaging less than one point per game and a goal differential seven worse than the nearest team.

But things got better on Wednesday when they took on Seattle, the team with the best record in the MLS.  But the Sounders were missing Clint Dempsey (three game suspension for paper shredding) and Obafemi Martins (injury).  Again the Union looked good out of the blocks.  Again they failed to score with the run of play - a goal was disallowed because of a foul against the keeper (soft?) and Edu missed a PK.  But Sapong did come through in the second half on an deft header from a flat Williams cross into the box.  Check out the video. Seattle woke up but - and here's where missing Dempsey and Obafemi hurt - really didn't threaten all that much.  So the rollercoaster continues with a home match against Montreal on Saturday.

Philip S points out a Chestnut Hill prodigy - Manolo Sanchez - that he coached (however briefly) made his debut for the Red Bulls last weekend and promptly set up the only goal of the match.  Taught him everything he knows, right Philip?  I was also shocked to see the Red Bulls sitting in 6^th – must have fallen a bit from their early good start.  Of course, they are also just three points out of 3^rd so there is some compression in the standings at this point.

Silly Season

Does this say Newcastle?

4,235 – number of stories linking Newcastle with possible transfer targets
0 – number of new players actually signed.

At one point Newcastle were favorites to sign Charlie Austin.  Then they weren't.  Then it wasn't clear Austin was leaving.  Now supposedly Newcastle are favorites again.  Whatever.

Though I call it the silly season, it is fascinating.  Arsenal has the signing of the summer so far, picking up keeper Petr Cech.  Chelsea’s John Terry says this is worth 15 more points for Arsenal.  I’m thinking Terry’s just saying kind things about his now ex-teammate.  Advanced metrics I’ve seen do suggest Cech is marginally better than Ospina (who will like be moved once the transfer is complete) and significantly better than Syzygy Szczesny but that doesn’t sound like a 15 point improvement.

The summer transfer window is also far and away my favorite aspect of Football Manager.  Love doing the research to see which players I want, which I can afford and which I can actually sign.  I also can’t believe I get attached to certain players.  The opportunity to get a 4-4.5 star (out of 5) keeper on a free transfer arose and I briefly hesitated out of concern about how our current 3.0 star keeper of the last two highly successful campaigns would react.  But, the upgrade was too big to pass up.  We also made improvements at striker (wait, we had the number two scorer in the EPL last year), left mid and center back.  And I still have almost $13 million in transfer funds to work with.  Preseason predictions have us in 11^th place; last year we were projected 19^th and finish 6^th so I’m hoping we have been underestimated again.

Blondes Have More Fouls?

Watching the Women's World Cup with my step-daughter Mackenzie (herself a four-time all Public League soccer player) has provided perspectives on the game that I wouldn't have gotten at, say, the local pub watching with the guys.  For example, comments like these:

"Megan Rapinoe has to be higher up the field.  She's no good to us getting the ball at the center line."
"Did you see how quickly the Swedish defenders re-formed a straight back line as soon as the ball was cleared?"
"We're too crowded on this side of the field."

are interspersed with observations such as these:

"Look at Sydney Leroux's foundation! 75 minutes into the match and her make-up is still perfect"
"I don't understand why more women don't put their hair in a bun.  The pigtails just flop around and slap you in the face."
"She needs a new sports bra."

Plus there were these interchanges.

Mackenzie: That Swedish player is a bully.
Me: Which one?
Mackenzie: The tall, blonde one.
Me: Okay, that narrows it down.

Me: Did you see Hope Solo punch that ball?
Mackenzie: Too soon.

But let me warn you.  Don't get her started on the issue of the tournament being played on artificial turf instead of grass.  "Stupid, sexist FIFA" is the only part of her tirade that I can print here.  And, of course, you know she's right.  There is no chance - NONE - that a major men's tournament would be played on anything but grass.  The "official" reason is that it's hard to grow grass in Canada's climate.  Probably true.  But I've seen temporary sod put down over turf; not ideal but still better than playing on plastic carpet. My understanding is that there was a firm willing to do just that for free so the cost couldn't be the real problem.  Just another example of FIFA's incompetence.


Form Basically Holds in the Group Stage

Despite some lackluster play by the favorites and some upsets, the final standings in the group stage aren't that far off what either FIFA or fivethirtyeight rankings would have suggested.  France lost to Colombia but still won their group; Germany could only manage a draw against the Netherlands but also still won their group.  Spain wasn't a clear choice to advance but they probably weren't expected to crash and burn with a last place finish and just one point.  Sweden failed to win a match, finished third and gets Germany in the Round of 16.

And the US?  Despite two wins and a draw, they really haven't looked all that solid yet.  Yes it was a tough group but they will have to beat better teams to win the tournament.  The back line and Hope Solo have played well, as has Rapinoe; but Lloyd and Holiday have struggled in the midfield.  The Yanks will face Colombia in the round of 16 (on Monday), then hopefully the winner of China-Cameroon.

As Chris K pointed out in the comments last week, the creation of the groups is different for the women.  Grant Wahl noted that "FIFA feels like it needs to put certain teams in certain cities to sell tickets and in certain time zones to help with TV ratings back home."  That process has resulted in the top three teams (Germany, USA and France) ending up on one side of the bracket which means things like Germany and France will probably face in the quarterfinals and US and Germany could face each other in the semis.  I guess it doesn't matter whether you have to beat the best team in the semis or the finals but it still sounds like another example of FIFA dissing the women's game.  Shhh, don't let Mackenzie know.


Don't Argue with the Referee (or the AR) Part I

The Croatia-Italy European qualifier would have been notable if only because Croatia was forced to host the match in an empty stadium because of fan misbehavior at an earlier contest.  Add to that, somehow a swastika had been cut into the field.  But my reason for mentioning this match was what happened to the Italians when they argued an offside call with the AR.  Seen here, the Croatians immediately restarted play, moved the ball quickly down field and scored.  Replays suggest the AR probably got the call wrong but you'll get no sympathy here.


Don't Argue with the Referee Part II

Things were even more out of hand in the Seattle-Portland US Open Cup match.  The Sounders were already down two men (a red card and an injury after all subs had been used) when Mike Aziri got himself a red card as well.  Clint Dempsey felt the need to intervene and took the referee's notebook and can be seen in this video tearing it up, which of course, earned him a red card as well.  Seattle finished with seven men on the field and the match ended with a police escort for the refereeing crew.  I didn't see the match so I have no idea how good or bad the refereeing was.  I also don't care.  It could have been atrocious but this is unacceptable behavior.  Also too, watch Dempsey's theatrics after he realizes he's been red carded.  There is some question as to whether this constitutes referee assault, which carries with it an automatic three month ban.  Not clear whether any suspension would also apply to participation on the USMNT, which is set to play in the CONCACAF Gold Cup in July.  Reading the comments of several of the articles has been quite disheartening, with many suggesting that Dempsey's actions were justified by the poor refereeing.  Please do not think I'm saying it's okay for referees to suck.  The sport needs to raise the standards, but that has to occur with actions off the field, not by players taking matters into their own hands.  If you think behavior like this is the way to get there, well, I hope you enjoy your suspensions, because they will be frequent and long.

Hey Mackenzie, how was my rant?

Speaking of the US Open Cup, the Union eked out a win in their match, beating a lower division side in a shoot-out.  That suggests a performance more like the loss to NYCFC than the string of good outings against New England and DC United.  They return to MLS action on Saturday night with a trip to LA, which is not a good place for them to find their mojo.

It appears that the email notification function is not working again.  We plan to post throughout the summer so even if you don't hear from us, check in occasionally to see what's up.  In the meantime, we have top people working on the problem. 

Odds and Ends

A pot pourri of items this week...

The Champions League final was entertaining enough.  When Juventus scored to level the match early in the second half, I had hopes for a exciting finish.  Unfortunately, Barcelona was just the better side and earned their 3-1 win.


In World Cup action, the 3-1 scoreline overstates how the US women did against Australia.  They deserved the win but didn't play very well.  Sweden didn't look all that great either in their 3-3 tie with Nigeria, who perhaps played the best of the four sides in the group.  Just watched Germany draw 1-1 against Norway; not a pretty match - choppy, lots of fouls, lots of should-have-been-fouls that weren't called.  Japan didn't exactly overwhelm Switzerland. Brazil looked okay against Korea, Canada was okay against China and France wasn't too bad in beating England.  According to Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight, the US and Germany remain the favorites, though the model hasn't been updated to reflected the Germany-Norway result.  Watching Canada-New Zealand and uh-oh, another case of mistaken identity.  Lauren Sesselman (right) gets the yellow card that belonged to Allysha Chapman.  Not even the same hair color...


I try not to get too up or down off of international friendlies but the two wins by the USMNT against the Netherlands (4-3) and Germany (2-1) were pretty cool.  Missed the first match and only saw the second half against Germany so I can't comment too much on how they played - which is way more important than the results - but thought the US looked really solid against Germany.  Bobby Wood's game winner against Germany in the 88th minute is worth a second look.

The biggest downer of the week was the Union's 1-2 loss to NYCFC.  The game was entertaining enough, not one of their cringe-worthy efforts but still.  With the score 1-1 late I was thinking that a draw wasn't really good enough against the last place team.  Then they didn't even get that.  All that excellent work against the top clubs in the division seems wasted now.  The Union has a few weeks away from MLS action but then faces LA and Seattle in consecutive matches - that doesn't seem like a good place to recover the lost momentum


On a more positive note, Newcastle have a new manager - Steve McClaren - and a rumored budget of 50 million pounds to spend in the summer transfer window.  Names like strikers Charlie Austin (QPR) and Saido Berahino (West Brom) are being bandied about.  It all sounds good but with the Magpies, until the signature is inked on the contract, it doesn't mean much.

Villa also look to get in on the transfer market and started by signing former Manchester City defender Micah Richards.  Certainly not a blockbuster, but we did concede a hell of a lot of goals this season and he is almost certainly an upgrade.  Benteke's name is still being tossed all over the place and the only thing that looks certain is that Villa will offer him a new contract.  Tom Cleverley did indeed bolt for Everton and I highly doubt I will miss him and his mediocrity.  Nothing major yet for the Villans, but they are certainly dipping their toes in the water.

A Whimper

An utterly forgettable FA Cup Final and the English football season is over.  Certainly Arsenal were the heavy favorite but sometimes they can be slow off the mark.  Unfortunately the Gunners looked ready and it was Aston Villa that couldn't get going.  In fact, they never did.  Maybe it was relegation fatigue.  Credit to Arsenal as well; that goal by Sanchez was pretty sweet.

Couldn't agree more - totally unremarkable match from my point of view.  Definitely something that just kind of happened rather than an event I was really paying attention too (though that could have something to do with the hour and a half of sleep I got the previous night).   I do wish they had put up more of a fight on such a high profile stage, but I didn't really expect it after their 2 previous awful weeks.  Whether or not the team was, I certainly was suffering from relegation fatigue alongside my conventional fatigue.  My brain switched into a much lower gear after safety was guaranteed and never recovered.  The loss keeps us out of the Europa League and probably cost us some key players, which I guess is better than making the Europa League, probably keeping most players, but probably being relegated as a result of being stretched so thin.  Nothing to do now but wait, see who gets transferred, and enjoy my reclaimed Saturday mornings for a few months.   


Handling (Again)

Though loath to question my brethren, I think the AR got it wrong in the Union vs DC United match.  Not questioning whether the ball hit Pfeffer's arm - it did.  But check out the video and tell me whether that was ball to hand or hand to ball.  Even the Washington Post writer said the ball "dropped onto his arm."  A shame too because it was the third straight quality outing from the Union.  The attack seems much more organized, as does the defense, and we're not seeing the jaw-dropping mistakes of earlier matches.  Doesn't mean this is a great team but I do like how Adam Cann of The Philly Soccer Page put it:

Ladies and gentlemen, you may finally be getting your first look at the 2015 Philadelphia Union: Playoff bubble team.

This view was further reinforced by the solid 3-0 win over the Columbus Crew on Wednesday night.  Didn't get to see it but the highlights suggest it was mostly the Union's match.  C.J. Sapong gets the start and they put in three goals - hmm.  Good to see the better play just as the European season ends - maybe it won't be such a dry summer.  Last place NYC at home on Saturday - a perfect test to see if this is for real.


Women's World Cup

There are plenty of sites that have detailed analysis of the tournament so I'm not going to spend a lot of time on that aspect.  The 30,000 foot view - the US are definitely in the mix but there is no clear favorite.  Here's analysis from fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver's website.

USA group stage matches:

June 8 7:30 pm - vs Australia (Fox Sports 1)
June 12 8 pm - vs Sweden (Fox) - Sweden is likely USA's chief rival for winning this group
June 16 8 pm - vs Nigeria (Fox)


Champions League

Don't forget CL final 2:45 on Saturday.  I will be rooting for Juventus over Barcelona.  And not just because the Juventus kit looks a lot like Newcastle's, although it might be the main reason.  BFS Foreign Correspondent Michael B (seen here at a recent Roma match) is on special assignment in Italy and will provide us with views on the CL Championships from that side of the Atlantic.